Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest monthly portfolios allocate +48.75% to the top 20% of assets by prior 30-day return. The strongest 30-day asset in the input table was Biotechnology (XBI).
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 73.9 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
7 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-14 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
7 artifacts published.
official-20260714
43,953 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Financials Sector (XLF)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-month scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-month realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-month round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-14-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-14
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-14T22:15:01Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-15T07:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-14
- Exit date: 2026-08-14
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Briefing - CB-2026-07-14-1M
Research cutoff: 2026-07-14T22:15:01Z
Round window: July 14, 2026 close to August 14, 2026 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 14 Market Close
- Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,543.59, the Dow rose less than 0.1% to 52,508.27, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% to 26,107.01, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.4% to 2,964.76.
- Year to date through July 14, the S&P 500 was up 10.2%, the Dow was up 9.2%, the Nasdaq was up 12.3%, and the Russell 2000 was up 19.5%.
- Micron Technology rose 4.9%, Nvidia rose 4.1%, Goldman Sachs rose 9.0%, Citigroup fell 5.3%, and IBM fell 25.2%.
- Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% and Shanghai rose 1.4%. Associated Press reported China's June exports rose 27% from a year earlier.
## Inflation, Rates, And Labor
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% over 12 months.
- The energy index fell 5.7% in June and rose 15.7% over 12 months; food rose 0.2% in June and 3.0% over 12 months; shelter rose 0.1% in June and 3.3% over 12 months.
- Associated Press reported the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.58% from 4.62% late July 13 and remained above 3.97% before the Iran war began.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June payroll growth of 57,000, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, a labor-force participation rate of 61.5%, and 3.5% year-over-year average hourly earnings growth.
- April and May payroll growth were revised down by a combined 74,000. June employment rose in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care, while leisure and hospitality employment fell by 61,000.
## Federal Reserve And Corporate Facts
- Chairman Kevin Warsh said the June FOMC held the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. He described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and the labor market as broadly stable, and said the Committee had no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.
- Associated Press reported five large U.S. banks posted record profits and results above analyst expectations. JPMorgan reported $16.9 billion of Q2 profit, 35% year-over-year markets-revenue growth, and 86% growth in equity-markets revenue.
- Bank of America reported consumer spending increased; JPMorgan reported consumer-banking revenue rose 8% from a year earlier; and Wells Fargo reported higher consumer spending with lower charge-offs and delinquencies.
- TSMC reported unaudited June revenue of NT$442.680 billion, up 67.9% from a year earlier, and first-half revenue of NT$2,404.484 billion, up 35.6%.
- Tesla reported Q2 production of 451,758 vehicles, deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, and energy-storage deployments of 13.5 GWh. Tesla said these measures should not be relied on as indicators of quarterly financial results.
## Energy And Strait Of Hormuz Status
- Reuters reported Brent crude settled at $84.73 a barrel, up 1.7%, and WTI settled at $79.34, up 1.5%. Both closed at their highest levels since mid-June.
- The U.S. military said it reimposed its blockade of Iranian ports on July 14 after renewed attacks on commercial ships. President Donald Trump dropped the previously announced 20% transit fee before the blockade resumed.
- Associated Press reported that before the war, one-fifth of traded crude oil and natural gas passed through the strait.
- Control of the strait, shipping volumes, military duration, energy flows, and further diplomatic or military actions remained unresolved at the cutoff.
## Scheduled Events Through July 21
- July 15: June PPI and BlackRock Q2 results are scheduled before the U.S. open; Chairman Warsh's Senate testimony is scheduled at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, the EIA petroleum-status summary at 10:30 a.m., and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 p.m.
- July 16: TSMC's Q2 earnings conference is scheduled at 2:00 a.m. Eastern, June retail sales at 8:30 a.m., and May business inventories at 10:00 a.m.
- July 17: June housing starts, building permits, and import and export prices are scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; June industrial production and capacity utilization are scheduled at 9:15 a.m.
- July 21: June state employment and unemployment and Q2 usual weekly earnings are scheduled at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
## Later Events Through August 14
- July 22-24: Alphabet and Tesla Q2 results are scheduled after the July 22 close, Intel Q2 results after the July 23 close, and June new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on July 24.
- July 27-29: June durable goods are scheduled July 27; the FOMC meets July 28-29, with its decision at 2:00 p.m. and press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern on July 29; Microsoft and Meta results are scheduled after the July 29 close.
- July 30-31: Q2 advance GDP and June personal income and outlays are scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Eastern July 30; Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. July 31.
- August 3-7: June construction spending is scheduled August 3; June trade, JOLTS, and factory orders August 4; preliminary Q2 productivity and June wholesale trade August 6; and the July Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. Eastern August 7.
- August 12-14: July CPI is scheduled August 12, July PPI August 13, and July retail sales at 8:30 a.m. Eastern August 14. June business inventories are scheduled at 10:00 a.m. August 14.
## Factual Uncertainties
- June headline and core inflation slowed, while year-over-year energy inflation remained elevated and oil prices rose again after the June observation period.
- The July 29 FOMC decision had not occurred at the cutoff. Warsh's July 14 remarks did not specify the next policy action.
- Strait of Hormuz operating conditions and military activity remained subject to rapid change.
- TSMC labels its monthly revenue figures unaudited, Tesla cautioned against treating operating statistics as financial results, payroll estimates remain subject to revision, and scheduled releases were not known at the cutoff.
This briefing is a fixed information snapshot as of the research cutoff. It does not recommend, rank, interpret, or map these facts to allowed options. Price history in the complete mechanical appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast.
## Full-Universe Trailing Returns
# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-14
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -1.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-14 | 0.07% | 0.29% | 1.76% | 3.82% | -1.33% | 0.26% | -0.01% | 73.68% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-14 | 0.55% | 1.62% | 9.48% | 21.66% | 0.00% | 12.85% | -3.17% | 42.11% | -0.76% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-14 | 0.42% | 1.60% | 9.50% | 22.02% | -0.02% | 12.12% | -2.49% | 42.11% | -0.57% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | 1.45% | -0.12% | 16.44% | 30.01% | -1.74% | 26.92% | -4.93% | 47.37% | -3.44% | 1.38 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-14 | 1.55% | 1.42% | 5.03% | 15.35% | -0.20% | 22.00% | -5.03% | 47.37% | -4.22% | 1.25 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-14 | -0.55% | 2.07% | 13.63% | 27.35% | 0.45% | 11.34% | -1.39% | 57.89% | -0.55% | 0.73 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-14 | 0.13% | -0.37% | 9.37% | 20.30% | -1.99% | 12.89% | -3.09% | 47.37% | -2.00% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-14 | -0.57% | 0.77% | 12.37% | 33.33% | -0.85% | 13.53% | -2.32% | 47.37% | -1.98% | 1.26 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-14 | -0.26% | 0.94% | 14.09% | 34.98% | -0.68% | 10.45% | -1.83% | 47.37% | -0.97% | 1.03 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-14 | -1.04% | -1.11% | 12.71% | 22.24% | -2.73% | 12.65% | -2.36% | 47.37% | -1.14% | 0.29 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-14 | -1.31% | 2.13% | 5.32% | 6.49% | 0.51% | 14.98% | -1.89% | 57.89% | -1.31% | 0.05 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-14 | 2.34% | -1.32% | 25.29% | 34.62% | -2.94% | 43.32% | -9.50% | 57.89% | -7.38% | 1.51 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | 2.48% | -0.52% | 27.21% | 44.41% | -2.14% | 35.07% | -6.75% | 52.63% | -7.25% | 1.68 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | 0.39% | 0.08% | -3.90% | 5.42% | -1.54% | 19.73% | -5.76% | 52.63% | -6.65% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -1.27% | -0.40% | -4.81% | 5.11% | -2.02% | 20.65% | -4.21% | 47.37% | -6.55% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -1.70% | -2.12% | 2.73% | 6.00% | -3.74% | 18.83% | -3.32% | 47.37% | -6.15% | -0.05 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -3.74% | 3.37% | 1.13% | 19.27% | 1.75% | 22.29% | -3.74% | 57.89% | -3.74% | 0.34 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | 0.23% | 5.69% | 4.65% | 8.57% | 4.07% | 15.04% | -2.08% | 63.16% | 0.00% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -1.06% | 2.68% | 10.43% | 21.04% | 1.06% | 18.20% | -2.80% | 63.16% | -2.75% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | 4.23% | -0.33% | 20.13% | 33.24% | -1.95% | 21.91% | -4.25% | 47.37% | -8.31% | -0.19 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -1.69% | -2.59% | 4.73% | 13.31% | -4.21% | 17.96% | -4.50% | 52.63% | -4.78% | 0.77 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -0.02% | 3.26% | 7.26% | 13.47% | 1.64% | 15.71% | -3.10% | 57.89% | -2.99% | 0.16 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -0.91% | -1.08% | 9.14% | 9.95% | -2.70% | 18.39% | -2.75% | 57.89% | -1.68% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.16% | -0.34% | -1.16% | 3.10% | -1.96% | 5.31% | -1.54% | 57.89% | -2.98% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.56% | -1.61% | -2.65% | 2.69% | -3.23% | 9.41% | -3.62% | 47.37% | -5.68% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.15% | -0.50% | 0.44% | 3.12% | -2.12% | 4.36% | -0.85% | 52.63% | -0.96% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-14 | -0.62% | -1.31% | -1.25% | 3.78% | -2.93% | 4.93% | -2.16% | 52.63% | -2.22% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-14 | -0.10% | 0.14% | 1.28% | 5.49% | -1.48% | 2.77% | -0.44% | 36.84% | -0.24% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.21% | -0.44% | -0.39% | 3.99% | -2.06% | 4.17% | -1.34% | 57.89% | -1.74% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | -0.25% | -0.81% | 9.59% | 27.58% | -2.43% | 18.75% | -3.63% | 57.89% | -2.47% | 1.08 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | 0.34% | -0.67% | 5.47% | 22.11% | -2.29% | 20.13% | -4.34% | 47.37% | -3.53% | 1.08 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | -0.83% | -0.13% | 4.41% | 17.05% | -1.75% | 13.50% | -2.35% | 52.63% | -1.86% | 0.93 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | 0.88% | 1.82% | 11.01% | 35.25% | 0.20% | 24.60% | -4.57% | 63.16% | -3.18% | 1.17 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | 2.80% | -2.27% | -15.68% | -2.36% | -3.89% | 19.93% | -8.10% | 42.11% | -19.04% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | -1.22% | 0.83% | -8.49% | -11.27% | -0.79% | 13.75% | -2.54% | 52.63% | -11.86% | 0.62 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-14 | -1.42% | -3.69% | -12.56% | 20.97% | -5.31% | 23.03% | -7.99% | 42.11% | -24.91% | 0.66 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 4.66% | 0.12% | 23.05% | 33.21% | -1.50% | 22.29% | -6.57% | 47.37% | -9.68% | -0.18 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | 3.24% | -3.17% | 54.58% | 111.05% | -4.79% | 60.20% | -13.07% | 57.89% | -10.26% | 2.28 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | -0.53% | 3.25% | -7.34% | -14.12% | 1.63% | 28.31% | -8.55% | 52.63% | -20.50% | 1.18 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | -0.19% | -3.19% | 18.52% | 42.53% | -4.81% | 40.37% | -8.63% | 52.63% | -11.66% | 1.86 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | -1.71% | -5.51% | -7.38% | 31.40% | -7.13% | 33.16% | -10.39% | 31.58% | -14.98% | 2.16 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | 2.73% | 11.11% | 31.15% | 30.09% | 9.49% | 27.42% | -3.12% | 47.37% | 0.00% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-14 | 0.58% | -12.53% | 7.07% | 43.94% | -14.15% | 42.41% | -15.28% | 42.11% | -25.43% | 1.77 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 1.90% | -13.24% | -14.97% | 44.37% | -14.86% | 27.21% | -15.44% | 36.84% | -21.33% | 1.69 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-14 | -0.60% | 1.24% | 8.31% | 17.54% | -0.38% | 10.89% | -1.83% | 52.63% | -0.72% | 0.73 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-14 | -5.14% | 16.30% | 22.70% | 76.91% | 14.68% | 28.48% | -5.44% | 68.42% | -5.37% | 1.02 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-14 | -0.09% | 2.76% | 13.28% | 20.79% | 1.14% | 18.66% | -3.73% | 68.42% | -1.55% | 0.83 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-14 | -4.01% | 0.70% | -1.49% | 22.12% | -0.92% | 19.81% | -6.27% | 57.89% | -6.18% | 1.02 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 1.41% | 1.19% | 7.75% | 29.17% | -0.43% | 9.53% | -3.08% | 68.42% | -0.00% | 0.77 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | -1.74% | -0.40% | 3.74% | 19.61% | -2.02% | 14.36% | -2.28% | 36.84% | -3.51% | 0.72 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 2.06% | -0.36% | 9.70% | 12.21% | -1.98% | 14.26% | -4.42% | 52.63% | -3.79% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | -2.38% | -10.37% | 61.42% | 147.21% | -11.99% | 80.19% | -23.35% | 47.37% | -19.26% | 2.65 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 0.00% | -0.72% | 53.18% | 84.33% | -2.34% | 44.76% | -8.65% | 52.63% | -8.65% | 1.71 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 4.01% | 3.63% | 9.69% | 37.85% | 2.01% | 19.96% | -2.63% | 42.11% | -12.84% | 1.01 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 0.40% | -2.58% | 4.18% | 30.71% | -4.20% | 18.78% | -5.37% | 42.11% | -5.89% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | -0.22% | -3.04% | -11.65% | 29.06% | -4.66% | 23.32% | -8.61% | 47.37% | -20.54% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.18% | -0.40% | -0.18% | 5.42% | -2.02% | 4.88% | -1.45% | 57.89% | -1.63% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.27% | 0.18% | 0.83% | 6.35% | -1.44% | 2.48% | -0.62% | 57.89% | -0.58% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-14 | -0.39% | -0.41% | 1.79% | 9.59% | -2.03% | 4.69% | -1.08% | 42.11% | -0.88% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.12% | -0.39% | 0.02% | 2.09% | -2.01% | 3.53% | -1.20% | 47.37% | -1.40% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-14 | -2.37% | -13.25% | -37.12% | 53.54% | -14.87% | 45.15% | -18.42% | 42.11% | -49.65% | 1.69 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 3.08% | -2.55% | 2.77% | 12.43% | -4.17% | 25.41% | -8.42% | 47.37% | -5.07% | 1.23 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 0.29% | 5.30% | 8.31% | 10.61% | 3.68% | 14.33% | -1.52% | 57.89% | -3.83% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 10.33% | -4.19% | 65.50% | 58.91% | -5.81% | 51.85% | -14.80% | 47.37% | -21.44% | -1.03 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-14 | -0.04% | 1.57% | 3.88% | 7.58% | -0.05% | 5.34% | -0.74% | 52.63% | -0.49% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-14 | 0.08% | -1.28% | -1.54% | -1.42% | -2.90% | 5.56% | -2.19% | 42.11% | -4.78% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-14 | -0.11% | -1.21% | -2.43% | -9.23% | -2.83% | 5.53% | -1.42% | 36.84% | -9.99% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-14 | 1.19% | 1.50% | -34.02% | -46.35% | -0.12% | 39.45% | -11.79% | 52.63% | -48.69% | 1.81 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-14 | 4.96% | 12.81% | -44.59% | -37.67% | 11.19% | 52.65% | -14.68% | 47.37% | -61.25% | 2.96 | pass |
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-month scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-month realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-month round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-07-14-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-14-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-14'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-15T07:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-14'
exit_date: '2026-08-14'
created_at: '2026-07-14T22:14:20.118919+00:00'
notes: 'Post-close July 14, 2026 one-month portfolio round. The one-month exit snapshot uses the August 14, 2026 close.'# CapitalBench Briefing - CB-2026-07-14-1M
Research cutoff: 2026-07-14T22:15:01Z
Round window: July 14, 2026 close to August 14, 2026 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 14 Market Close
- Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,543.59, the Dow rose less than 0.1% to 52,508.27, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9% to 26,107.01, and the Russell 2000 rose 0.4% to 2,964.76.
- Year to date through July 14, the S&P 500 was up 10.2%, the Dow was up 9.2%, the Nasdaq was up 12.3%, and the Russell 2000 was up 19.5%.
- Micron Technology rose 4.9%, Nvidia rose 4.1%, Goldman Sachs rose 9.0%, Citigroup fell 5.3%, and IBM fell 25.2%.
- Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% and Shanghai rose 1.4%. Associated Press reported China's June exports rose 27% from a year earlier.
## Inflation, Rates, And Labor
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% over 12 months.
- The energy index fell 5.7% in June and rose 15.7% over 12 months; food rose 0.2% in June and 3.0% over 12 months; shelter rose 0.1% in June and 3.3% over 12 months.
- Associated Press reported the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.58% from 4.62% late July 13 and remained above 3.97% before the Iran war began.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June payroll growth of 57,000, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, a labor-force participation rate of 61.5%, and 3.5% year-over-year average hourly earnings growth.
- April and May payroll growth were revised down by a combined 74,000. June employment rose in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care, while leisure and hospitality employment fell by 61,000.
## Federal Reserve And Corporate Facts
- Chairman Kevin Warsh said the June FOMC held the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. He described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and the labor market as broadly stable, and said the Committee had no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.
- Associated Press reported five large U.S. banks posted record profits and results above analyst expectations. JPMorgan reported $16.9 billion of Q2 profit, 35% year-over-year markets-revenue growth, and 86% growth in equity-markets revenue.
- Bank of America reported consumer spending increased; JPMorgan reported consumer-banking revenue rose 8% from a year earlier; and Wells Fargo reported higher consumer spending with lower charge-offs and delinquencies.
- TSMC reported unaudited June revenue of NT$442.680 billion, up 67.9% from a year earlier, and first-half revenue of NT$2,404.484 billion, up 35.6%.
- Tesla reported Q2 production of 451,758 vehicles, deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, and energy-storage deployments of 13.5 GWh. Tesla said these measures should not be relied on as indicators of quarterly financial results.
## Energy And Strait Of Hormuz Status
- Reuters reported Brent crude settled at $84.73 a barrel, up 1.7%, and WTI settled at $79.34, up 1.5%. Both closed at their highest levels since mid-June.
- The U.S. military said it reimposed its blockade of Iranian ports on July 14 after renewed attacks on commercial ships. President Donald Trump dropped the previously announced 20% transit fee before the blockade resumed.
- Associated Press reported that before the war, one-fifth of traded crude oil and natural gas passed through the strait.
- Control of the strait, shipping volumes, military duration, energy flows, and further diplomatic or military actions remained unresolved at the cutoff.
## Scheduled Events Through July 21
- July 15: June PPI and BlackRock Q2 results are scheduled before the U.S. open; Chairman Warsh's Senate testimony is scheduled at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, the EIA petroleum-status summary at 10:30 a.m., and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 p.m.
- July 16: TSMC's Q2 earnings conference is scheduled at 2:00 a.m. Eastern, June retail sales at 8:30 a.m., and May business inventories at 10:00 a.m.
- July 17: June housing starts, building permits, and import and export prices are scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; June industrial production and capacity utilization are scheduled at 9:15 a.m.
- July 21: June state employment and unemployment and Q2 usual weekly earnings are scheduled at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
## Later Events Through August 14
- July 22-24: Alphabet and Tesla Q2 results are scheduled after the July 22 close, Intel Q2 results after the July 23 close, and June new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. Eastern on July 24.
- July 27-29: June durable goods are scheduled July 27; the FOMC meets July 28-29, with its decision at 2:00 p.m. and press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern on July 29; Microsoft and Meta results are scheduled after the July 29 close.
- July 30-31: Q2 advance GDP and June personal income and outlays are scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Eastern July 30; Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. July 31.
- August 3-7: June construction spending is scheduled August 3; June trade, JOLTS, and factory orders August 4; preliminary Q2 productivity and June wholesale trade August 6; and the July Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. Eastern August 7.
- August 12-14: July CPI is scheduled August 12, July PPI August 13, and July retail sales at 8:30 a.m. Eastern August 14. June business inventories are scheduled at 10:00 a.m. August 14.
## Factual Uncertainties
- June headline and core inflation slowed, while year-over-year energy inflation remained elevated and oil prices rose again after the June observation period.
- The July 29 FOMC decision had not occurred at the cutoff. Warsh's July 14 remarks did not specify the next policy action.
- Strait of Hormuz operating conditions and military activity remained subject to rapid change.
- TSMC labels its monthly revenue figures unaudited, Tesla cautioned against treating operating statistics as financial results, payroll estimates remain subject to revision, and scheduled releases were not known at the cutoff.
This briefing is a fixed information snapshot as of the research cutoff. It does not recommend, rank, interpret, or map these facts to allowed options. Price history in the complete mechanical appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast.# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-14
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-14 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -1.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-14 | 0.07% | 0.29% | 1.76% | 3.82% | -1.33% | 0.26% | -0.01% | 73.68% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-14 | 0.55% | 1.62% | 9.48% | 21.66% | 0.00% | 12.85% | -3.17% | 42.11% | -0.76% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-14 | 0.42% | 1.60% | 9.50% | 22.02% | -0.02% | 12.12% | -2.49% | 42.11% | -0.57% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | 1.45% | -0.12% | 16.44% | 30.01% | -1.74% | 26.92% | -4.93% | 47.37% | -3.44% | 1.38 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-14 | 1.55% | 1.42% | 5.03% | 15.35% | -0.20% | 22.00% | -5.03% | 47.37% | -4.22% | 1.25 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-14 | -0.55% | 2.07% | 13.63% | 27.35% | 0.45% | 11.34% | -1.39% | 57.89% | -0.55% | 0.73 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-14 | 0.13% | -0.37% | 9.37% | 20.30% | -1.99% | 12.89% | -3.09% | 47.37% | -2.00% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-14 | -0.57% | 0.77% | 12.37% | 33.33% | -0.85% | 13.53% | -2.32% | 47.37% | -1.98% | 1.26 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-14 | -0.26% | 0.94% | 14.09% | 34.98% | -0.68% | 10.45% | -1.83% | 47.37% | -0.97% | 1.03 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-14 | -1.04% | -1.11% | 12.71% | 22.24% | -2.73% | 12.65% | -2.36% | 47.37% | -1.14% | 0.29 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-14 | -1.31% | 2.13% | 5.32% | 6.49% | 0.51% | 14.98% | -1.89% | 57.89% | -1.31% | 0.05 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-14 | 2.34% | -1.32% | 25.29% | 34.62% | -2.94% | 43.32% | -9.50% | 57.89% | -7.38% | 1.51 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | 2.48% | -0.52% | 27.21% | 44.41% | -2.14% | 35.07% | -6.75% | 52.63% | -7.25% | 1.68 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | 0.39% | 0.08% | -3.90% | 5.42% | -1.54% | 19.73% | -5.76% | 52.63% | -6.65% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -1.27% | -0.40% | -4.81% | 5.11% | -2.02% | 20.65% | -4.21% | 47.37% | -6.55% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -1.70% | -2.12% | 2.73% | 6.00% | -3.74% | 18.83% | -3.32% | 47.37% | -6.15% | -0.05 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -3.74% | 3.37% | 1.13% | 19.27% | 1.75% | 22.29% | -3.74% | 57.89% | -3.74% | 0.34 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | 0.23% | 5.69% | 4.65% | 8.57% | 4.07% | 15.04% | -2.08% | 63.16% | 0.00% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -1.06% | 2.68% | 10.43% | 21.04% | 1.06% | 18.20% | -2.80% | 63.16% | -2.75% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | 4.23% | -0.33% | 20.13% | 33.24% | -1.95% | 21.91% | -4.25% | 47.37% | -8.31% | -0.19 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -1.69% | -2.59% | 4.73% | 13.31% | -4.21% | 17.96% | -4.50% | 52.63% | -4.78% | 0.77 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -0.02% | 3.26% | 7.26% | 13.47% | 1.64% | 15.71% | -3.10% | 57.89% | -2.99% | 0.16 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-14 | -0.91% | -1.08% | 9.14% | 9.95% | -2.70% | 18.39% | -2.75% | 57.89% | -1.68% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.16% | -0.34% | -1.16% | 3.10% | -1.96% | 5.31% | -1.54% | 57.89% | -2.98% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.56% | -1.61% | -2.65% | 2.69% | -3.23% | 9.41% | -3.62% | 47.37% | -5.68% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.15% | -0.50% | 0.44% | 3.12% | -2.12% | 4.36% | -0.85% | 52.63% | -0.96% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-14 | -0.62% | -1.31% | -1.25% | 3.78% | -2.93% | 4.93% | -2.16% | 52.63% | -2.22% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-14 | -0.10% | 0.14% | 1.28% | 5.49% | -1.48% | 2.77% | -0.44% | 36.84% | -0.24% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.21% | -0.44% | -0.39% | 3.99% | -2.06% | 4.17% | -1.34% | 57.89% | -1.74% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | -0.25% | -0.81% | 9.59% | 27.58% | -2.43% | 18.75% | -3.63% | 57.89% | -2.47% | 1.08 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | 0.34% | -0.67% | 5.47% | 22.11% | -2.29% | 20.13% | -4.34% | 47.37% | -3.53% | 1.08 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | -0.83% | -0.13% | 4.41% | 17.05% | -1.75% | 13.50% | -2.35% | 52.63% | -1.86% | 0.93 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | 0.88% | 1.82% | 11.01% | 35.25% | 0.20% | 24.60% | -4.57% | 63.16% | -3.18% | 1.17 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | 2.80% | -2.27% | -15.68% | -2.36% | -3.89% | 19.93% | -8.10% | 42.11% | -19.04% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-14 | -1.22% | 0.83% | -8.49% | -11.27% | -0.79% | 13.75% | -2.54% | 52.63% | -11.86% | 0.62 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-14 | -1.42% | -3.69% | -12.56% | 20.97% | -5.31% | 23.03% | -7.99% | 42.11% | -24.91% | 0.66 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 4.66% | 0.12% | 23.05% | 33.21% | -1.50% | 22.29% | -6.57% | 47.37% | -9.68% | -0.18 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | 3.24% | -3.17% | 54.58% | 111.05% | -4.79% | 60.20% | -13.07% | 57.89% | -10.26% | 2.28 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | -0.53% | 3.25% | -7.34% | -14.12% | 1.63% | 28.31% | -8.55% | 52.63% | -20.50% | 1.18 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | -0.19% | -3.19% | 18.52% | 42.53% | -4.81% | 40.37% | -8.63% | 52.63% | -11.66% | 1.86 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | -1.71% | -5.51% | -7.38% | 31.40% | -7.13% | 33.16% | -10.39% | 31.58% | -14.98% | 2.16 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-14 | 2.73% | 11.11% | 31.15% | 30.09% | 9.49% | 27.42% | -3.12% | 47.37% | 0.00% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-14 | 0.58% | -12.53% | 7.07% | 43.94% | -14.15% | 42.41% | -15.28% | 42.11% | -25.43% | 1.77 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 1.90% | -13.24% | -14.97% | 44.37% | -14.86% | 27.21% | -15.44% | 36.84% | -21.33% | 1.69 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-14 | -0.60% | 1.24% | 8.31% | 17.54% | -0.38% | 10.89% | -1.83% | 52.63% | -0.72% | 0.73 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-14 | -5.14% | 16.30% | 22.70% | 76.91% | 14.68% | 28.48% | -5.44% | 68.42% | -5.37% | 1.02 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-14 | -0.09% | 2.76% | 13.28% | 20.79% | 1.14% | 18.66% | -3.73% | 68.42% | -1.55% | 0.83 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-14 | -4.01% | 0.70% | -1.49% | 22.12% | -0.92% | 19.81% | -6.27% | 57.89% | -6.18% | 1.02 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 1.41% | 1.19% | 7.75% | 29.17% | -0.43% | 9.53% | -3.08% | 68.42% | -0.00% | 0.77 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | -1.74% | -0.40% | 3.74% | 19.61% | -2.02% | 14.36% | -2.28% | 36.84% | -3.51% | 0.72 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 2.06% | -0.36% | 9.70% | 12.21% | -1.98% | 14.26% | -4.42% | 52.63% | -3.79% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | -2.38% | -10.37% | 61.42% | 147.21% | -11.99% | 80.19% | -23.35% | 47.37% | -19.26% | 2.65 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 0.00% | -0.72% | 53.18% | 84.33% | -2.34% | 44.76% | -8.65% | 52.63% | -8.65% | 1.71 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 4.01% | 3.63% | 9.69% | 37.85% | 2.01% | 19.96% | -2.63% | 42.11% | -12.84% | 1.01 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | 0.40% | -2.58% | 4.18% | 30.71% | -4.20% | 18.78% | -5.37% | 42.11% | -5.89% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-14 | -0.22% | -3.04% | -11.65% | 29.06% | -4.66% | 23.32% | -8.61% | 47.37% | -20.54% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.18% | -0.40% | -0.18% | 5.42% | -2.02% | 4.88% | -1.45% | 57.89% | -1.63% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.27% | 0.18% | 0.83% | 6.35% | -1.44% | 2.48% | -0.62% | 57.89% | -0.58% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-14 | -0.39% | -0.41% | 1.79% | 9.59% | -2.03% | 4.69% | -1.08% | 42.11% | -0.88% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-14 | -0.12% | -0.39% | 0.02% | 2.09% | -2.01% | 3.53% | -1.20% | 47.37% | -1.40% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-14 | -2.37% | -13.25% | -37.12% | 53.54% | -14.87% | 45.15% | -18.42% | 42.11% | -49.65% | 1.69 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 3.08% | -2.55% | 2.77% | 12.43% | -4.17% | 25.41% | -8.42% | 47.37% | -5.07% | 1.23 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 0.29% | 5.30% | 8.31% | 10.61% | 3.68% | 14.33% | -1.52% | 57.89% | -3.83% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-14 | 10.33% | -4.19% | 65.50% | 58.91% | -5.81% | 51.85% | -14.80% | 47.37% | -21.44% | -1.03 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-14 | -0.04% | 1.57% | 3.88% | 7.58% | -0.05% | 5.34% | -0.74% | 52.63% | -0.49% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-14 | 0.08% | -1.28% | -1.54% | -1.42% | -2.90% | 5.56% | -2.19% | 42.11% | -4.78% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-14 | -0.11% | -1.21% | -2.43% | -9.23% | -2.83% | 5.53% | -1.42% | 36.84% | -9.99% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-14 | 1.19% | 1.50% | -34.02% | -46.35% | -0.12% | 39.45% | -11.79% | 52.63% | -48.69% | 1.81 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-14 | 4.96% | 12.81% | -44.59% | -37.67% | 11.19% | 52.65% | -14.68% | 47.37% | -61.25% | 2.96 | pass |Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "0e1d3f61ae7e227227863e64c74fe1a17e00ba327158a8e6c28af9ca75e75e1e",
"manifest.yaml": "7a06d92a0b760e9b7d36098f05445ee07c82c7f449ccb1864520bfcc68b40906",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv": "9e16b248d8cf1fad3108b9f68e4f3dbf01c7b2ec3b9443bf8a868581a872f186",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json": "18982ae0e2a6e9c6d4cc881273a50d2e79a03d969d0fa5034a7dbd47a332b9b6",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md": "7d38f392b65b872feba3d042db6ca21ddd4f7ae599e26f416dec7a01df4a5e18",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "0e5a222ebba001788946308d0e0b4c71b9e1bdc4f2882aad00ed1514ecaa5c5f"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-14-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-14-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-14-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-14-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-14-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-14-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-14-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-14-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Overweight financials on record earnings momentum and higher-for-longer rates, energy on geopolitical supply risk, and semis on TSMC-driven AI demand, with value and T-bills damping volatility around the FOMC and CPI prints.
Barbell of earnings-strong financials, geopolitically supported energy, and AI-driven semis versus SPY, with modest defensive ballast into a hawkish Fed window.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rapid Strait of Hormuz de-escalation could unwind energy gains quickly",
"Hawkish July 29 FOMC or hot July CPI (Aug 12) could hit high-beta semis",
"Semiconductors already up ~55% in 6 months; earnings disappointments or profit-taking risk",
"Weak payrolls momentum could raise credit concerns for financials"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Record Q2 bank profits, strong markets revenue, healthy consumer credit, and a hawkish-hold Fed keeping rates supportive of net interest income."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Reimposed Iran port blockade and unresolved Strait of Hormuz conditions support oil prices; XLE benefits with less futures-curve decay than USO."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "TSMC revenue up 68% y/y, Micron/Nvidia strength; TSMC July 16 earnings and mega-cap AI capex reports are near-term catalysts."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value tilt with financials/energy exposure and lower beta cushions against rate or geopolitical shocks with 4.58% 10-year yields."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"rationale": "Yielding dry powder against a hawkish Fed and Hormuz-driven inflation risk into the July 29 FOMC and Aug 12 CPI."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Overweight financials on record earnings momentum and higher-for-longer rates, energy on geopolitical supply risk, and semis on TSMC-driven AI demand, with value and T-bills damping volatility around the FOMC and CPI prints.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Barbell of earnings-strong financials, geopolitically supported energy, and AI-driven semis versus SPY, with modest defensive ballast into a hawkish Fed window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-14-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22560,
"latency_seconds": 14.472163263941184,
"output_tokens": 896,
"total_tokens": 23456
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
Tilt toward catalysts with clear near-term drivers: bank earnings momentum, geopolitically-supported energy, and secular cybersecurity/biotech leadership, with a small T-bill buffer for Hormuz and FOMC tail risks.
Overweight financials into strong earnings, energy on Hormuz blockade, and momentum leaders (cyber, biotech), with short-duration ballast.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hormuz de-escalation collapses oil premium hurting XLE",
"Hawkish Warsh testimony or July 29 FOMC surprise pressures risk assets",
"Bank earnings guidance disappoints post-print, reversing XLF rally",
"Biotech/cyber momentum reversal on factor rotation"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Record bank earnings, strong markets revenue, resilient consumer spending, positive momentum entering earnings season."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Blockade of Iranian ports resumed, Brent/WTI at highs since mid-June, Hormuz risk unresolved—energy equities benefit with lower beta than oil futures."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Strong momentum (+11% 30d), at 52w highs, secular demand insulated from macro; leads factor rotation."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strong 30d momentum (+16%), high up-day share, benefits from softer CPI/rate stability into FOMC."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"rationale": "Ballast against Hormuz escalation and FOMC surprise; preserves optionality."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward catalysts with clear near-term drivers: bank earnings momentum, geopolitically-supported energy, and secular cybersecurity/biotech leadership, with a small T-bill buffer for Hormuz and FOMC tail risks.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight financials into strong earnings, energy on Hormuz blockade, and momentum leaders (cyber, biotech), with short-duration ballast.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-14-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22569,
"latency_seconds": 12.435238355072215,
"output_tokens": 708,
"total_tokens": 23277
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Overweight financials on record earnings and strong relative momentum, add energy for geopolitical oil upside, cybersecurity and industrials for cyclical breadth, and hold SP500 as benchmark ballast to control alpha risk into the July FOMC and August CPI window.
Tilt toward earnings-confirmed strength (financials), geopolitical energy tailwinds, and lower-vol momentum sectors while anchoring to the benchmark.
{
"confidence": 0.62,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil reverses if Strait tensions de-escalate, hurting energy allocation",
"July 29 FOMC or August 12 CPI surprise hawkish, pressuring rate-sensitive financials and cyclicals",
"Bank earnings enthusiasm fades post-report, causing financials mean reversion",
"Renewed inflation from elevated energy prices spooks broad equities"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Record bank profits, blowout markets/equity revenue, strong consumer spending, and best 30d relative performance (+4.07% vs SPY) with earnings momentum extending through the window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strait of Hormuz blockade reimposed, Brent/WTI at multi-month highs, and elevated geopolitical risk supports oil-leveraged equities with negative beta diversification."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Strongest breadth (+11.11% 30d, +9.49% vs SPY) with low drawdown and defensible secular demand; momentum with lower volatility than broad AI/semis."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "Solid economy per Warsh, high up-day share (63%), positive relative return, and cyclical exposure without the concentration risk of mega-cap tech."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure to limit tracking error against the scoring benchmark while maintaining broad participation in a rising market."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Overweight financials on record earnings and strong relative momentum, add energy for geopolitical oil upside, cybersecurity and industrials for cyclical breadth, and hold SP500 as benchmark ballast to control alpha risk into the July FOMC and August CPI window.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Tilt toward earnings-confirmed strength (financials), geopolitical energy tailwinds, and lower-vol momentum sectors while anchoring to the benchmark.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-14-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22564,
"latency_seconds": 12.172062195953913,
"output_tokens": 803,
"total_tokens": 23367
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
This portfolio balances strong fundamental momentum in financials and semiconductors with a tactical overweight in energy and oil to capitalize on the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The combination aims to capture earnings-driven upside while hedging against geopolitical shocks that could drive energy prices higher.
Overweighting financials and semiconductors based on strong recent earnings and revenue data, while heavily allocating to energy and oil to profit from the escalating military situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
{
"confidence": 0.75,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A rapid diplomatic resolution or lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade could cause a sharp reversal in oil prices and energy equities.",
"Upcoming mega-cap tech earnings (Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta) could disappoint, dragging down the semiconductor sector and broader market sentiment.",
"The July 29 FOMC meeting could result in a hawkish surprise, negatively impacting equity valuations and financial sector margins."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Large US banks reported record profits and strong consumer spending metrics, providing a positive catalyst for the financial sector."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "The reimposed blockade in the Strait of Hormuz and rising crude prices provide a strong tailwind for energy equities."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct exposure to crude oil prices, which are likely to remain elevated or spike further due to the military blockade in a critical transit chokepoint."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "TSMC's robust 67.9% year-over-year June revenue growth signals continued strong demand in the semiconductor industry."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "This portfolio balances strong fundamental momentum in financials and semiconductors with a tactical overweight in energy and oil to capitalize on the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The combination aims to capture earnings-driven upside while hedging against geopolitical shocks that could drive energy prices higher.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweighting financials and semiconductors based on strong recent earnings and revenue data, while heavily allocating to energy and oil to profit from the escalating military situation in the Strait of Hormuz.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-14-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16075,
"latency_seconds": 11.30697921605315,
"output_tokens": 527,
"reasoning_tokens": 708,
"total_tokens": 17310
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The allocation emphasizes near-term catalysts most likely to move prices before August 14: AI semiconductor earnings and revenue strength, acute oil supply/geopolitical risk, and strong bank earnings. Smaller positions in cybersecurity and biotech add high-upside momentum and rate-sensitive growth exposure while keeping the portfolio focused on alpha over SPY rather than broad market beta alone.
A concentrated risk-on portfolio targets sectors and commodities with identifiable one-month catalysts: semiconductors, crude oil, financials, cybersecurity, and biotech. The mix seeks to outperform SPY through earnings momentum, geopolitical energy risk, and easing-inflation support for growth assets.
{
"confidence": 0.43,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A diplomatic de-escalation or restored energy flows around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz could sharply reverse crude oil gains.",
"High-valuation semiconductor and technology shares could sell off if TSMC, Intel, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, or Tesla results disappoint or guidance weakens.",
"The July 29 FOMC or July/August inflation data could push yields higher and pressure high-beta growth, biotech, and technology holdings.",
"Bank strength could fade if credit-quality concerns, yield-curve pressure, or negative read-throughs from later financial earnings offset strong early large-bank results.",
"The portfolio is concentrated in volatile assets and could underperform SPY in a defensive rotation toward low-volatility or broad diversified equities."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "TSMC's very strong June and first-half revenue growth, Nvidia strength, and imminent TSMC and large-cap tech earnings create near-term upside potential despite high volatility."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Renewed U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and unresolved Strait of Hormuz risks provide a direct one-month catalyst for crude prices after oil already rebounded sharply."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Large banks reported record profits above expectations, strong markets revenue, and resilient consumer metrics, supporting near-term sector momentum into earnings season."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Cybersecurity has shown strong recent relative strength and sits at a 52-week high, with potential continuation if technology risk appetite remains firm through earnings."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Biotech has strong 30-day relative performance and may benefit from lower inflation and weaker payroll data if rates expectations move lower before the August window ends."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The allocation emphasizes near-term catalysts most likely to move prices before August 14: AI semiconductor earnings and revenue strength, acute oil supply/geopolitical risk, and strong bank earnings. Smaller positions in cybersecurity and biotech add high-upside momentum and rate-sensitive growth exposure while keeping the portfolio focused on alpha over SPY rather than broad market beta alone.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "A concentrated risk-on portfolio targets sectors and commodities with identifiable one-month catalysts: semiconductors, crude oil, financials, cybersecurity, and biotech. The mix seeks to outperform SPY through earnings momentum, geopolitical energy risk, and easing-inflation support for growth assets.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-14-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14523,
"latency_seconds": 15.54850421694573,
"output_tokens": 832,
"reasoning_tokens": 257,
"total_tokens": 15355
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio emphasizes sectors with concrete catalysts inside the scoring window: semiconductor and mega-cap earnings, strong bank fundamentals, and unresolved oil-supply risk. Cybersecurity and biotech add established relative strength while limiting dependence on a single macro outcome.
A catalyst-heavy equity portfolio targets earnings confirmation, persistent sector leadership, and geopolitical supply risk. Diversification across technology, financials, energy, and healthcare improves the chance of outperforming SPY over the month.
{
"confidence": 0.61,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Semiconductor valuations and 60% recent volatility could amplify any TSMC or mega-cap earnings disappointment.",
"A rapid Hormuz de-escalation could reverse oil and energy gains.",
"Hot July inflation or a hawkish July 29 FOMC could pressure high-duration technology and biotech holdings.",
"Cybersecurity and biotech momentum could unwind after strong recent benchmark-relative gains.",
"Weak labor or consumer data could outweigh strong second-quarter bank results and raise credit concerns."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "TSMC's 67.9% June revenue growth and imminent earnings provide direct confirmation and a near-term catalyst for AI-chip demand."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Strong benchmark-relative momentum, a fresh 52-week high, and comparatively contained drawdown support continued leadership."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Record bank profits, strong trading revenue, resilient consumer activity, and positive credit trends support earnings-driven upside."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "The renewed Iranian-port blockade and unresolved Strait of Hormuz disruption create upside exposure to elevated oil prices."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Broad participation and strong one-month relative momentum offer diversification from technology and geopolitical energy exposure."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes sectors with concrete catalysts inside the scoring window: semiconductor and mega-cap earnings, strong bank fundamentals, and unresolved oil-supply risk. Cybersecurity and biotech add established relative strength while limiting dependence on a single macro outcome.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "A catalyst-heavy equity portfolio targets earnings confirmation, persistent sector leadership, and geopolitical supply risk. Diversification across technology, financials, energy, and healthcare improves the chance of outperforming SPY over the month.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-14-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14525,
"latency_seconds": 8.830064418027177,
"output_tokens": 439,
"reasoning_tokens": 0,
"total_tokens": 14964
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Concentrated tilt to energy and financials captures the dominant near-term catalysts of Middle East supply risk and bank earnings strength, with core S&P 500 allocation for liquidity and benchmark tracking.
Energy benefits from unresolved Hormuz tensions and elevated oil prices; financials from above-expectation bank results; overall allocation balances catalyst exposure with broad equity participation over the July 14 to August 14 window.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rapid de-escalation or resolution of Strait of Hormuz blockade reversing oil price gains",
"FOMC July 29 decision or Warsh testimony producing unexpected hawkish signals",
"Weaker-than-expected July CPI or retail sales data triggering broad equity rotation away from cyclicals"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Geopolitical blockade in Strait of Hormuz and rising Brent/WTI prices provide near-term catalyst for energy sector through August 14 close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Record Q2 bank profits, strong markets revenue, and resilient consumer spending support outperformance over the one-month window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad market exposure to capture any risk-on rotation while maintaining benchmark-relative performance."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrated tilt to energy and financials captures the dominant near-term catalysts of Middle East supply risk and bank earnings strength, with core S&P 500 allocation for liquidity and benchmark tracking.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy benefits from unresolved Hormuz tensions and elevated oil prices; financials from above-expectation bank results; overall allocation balances catalyst exposure with broad equity participation over the July 14 to August 14 window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-14-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14713,
"latency_seconds": 4.32098070695065,
"output_tokens": 379,
"reasoning_tokens": 552,
"total_tokens": 15644
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Concentrate in energy/oil for the active Hormuz supply risk premium while adding financials on confirmed strong bank results and selective high-momentum equities (biotech, cyber) for alpha versus SPY over the one-month close-to-close window.
Geopolitical oil upside plus bank earnings strength and recent factor/sector momentum are the highest-conviction near-term drivers before the August 14 exit; avoid duration and pure growth given sticky energy inflation and Fed stance.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rapid Hormuz de-escalation or shipping normalization could reverse oil and energy gains sharply",
"Hawkish July 29 FOMC or sticky July CPI (driven by energy) could pressure risk assets and financials",
"High-volatility biotech and oil positions amplify drawdowns if risk appetite fades on soft growth data",
"Profit-taking after strong bank results or sector rotation away from recent winners"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Hormuz blockade reimposed and rising oil prices (Brent/WTI multi-week highs) support energy equities over the one-month window amid unresolved shipping and military risks."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct crude exposure benefits from the same Strait of Hormuz supply disruption premium and recent price strength into the scoring window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Record Q2 bank profits, strong markets revenue (especially equities), and rising consumer spending provide near-term earnings momentum."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strong 30-day relative performance and risk-on biotech momentum can continue if soft labor data supports risk appetite before August data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Recent outperformance and thematic demand provide diversification with lower direct oil/geopolitical beta than pure energy."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrate in energy/oil for the active Hormuz supply risk premium while adding financials on confirmed strong bank results and selective high-momentum equities (biotech, cyber) for alpha versus SPY over the one-month close-to-close window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Geopolitical oil upside plus bank earnings strength and recent factor/sector momentum are the highest-conviction near-term drivers before the August 14 exit; avoid duration and pure growth given sticky energy inflation and Fed stance.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-14-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15283,
"latency_seconds": 10.68395286006853,
"output_tokens": 582,
"reasoning_tokens": 774,
"total_tokens": 16639
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)30%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Semiconductors (SMH)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)10% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)30%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Cybersecurity (CIBR)20%Biotechnology (XBI)15%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)35%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Cybersecurity (CIBR)15%Industrials Sector (XLI)15%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Financials Sector (XLF)30%Energy Sector (XLE)30%Crude Oil (USO)20%Semiconductors (SMH)20% | 0.75 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)30%Crude Oil (USO)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Cybersecurity (CIBR)15%Biotechnology (XBI)10% | 0.43 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)30%Cybersecurity (CIBR)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15%Biotechnology (XBI)10% | 0.61 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)40%Financials Sector (XLF)35%S&P 500 (SPY)25% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Crude Oil (USO)20%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Biotechnology (XBI)15%Cybersecurity (CIBR)10% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-14 | 235.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-14 | 93.67 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-14 | 27.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-14 | 28.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-14 | 122.28 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-14 | 155.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-14 | 36.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-14 | 36.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-14 | 61.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-14 | 17.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-14 | 59.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-14 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-14 | 53.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-14 | 111.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-14 | 115.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-14 | 83.42 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-14 | 38.54 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-14 | 120.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-14 | 94.73 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-14 | 70.60 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-14 | 95.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-14 | 59.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-14 | 56.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-14 | 213.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-14 | 14.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-14 | 105.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-14 | 88.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-14 | 56.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-14 | 76.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-14 | 158.29 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-14 | 79.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-14 | 48.73 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-14 | 180.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-14 | 93.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-14 | 47.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-14 | 107.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-14 | 93.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-14 | 56.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-14 | 84.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-14 | 50.64 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-14 | 104.42 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-14 | 75.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-14 | 106.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-14 | 719.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-14 | 44.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-14 | 75.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-14 | 751.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-14 | 600.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-14 | 91.51 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-14 | 53.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-14 | 93.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-14 | 55.13 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-14 | 63.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-14 | 176.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-14 | 101.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-14 | 183.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-14 | 371.16 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-14 | 108.01 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-14 | 46.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-14 | 98.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-14 | 32.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-14 | 28.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-14 | 123.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-14 | 246.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-14 | 75.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-14 | 75.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-14 | 319.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-14 | 294.51 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-14 | 219.60 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-14 | 45.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 0e1d3f61ae7e...75e75e1e |
| manifest.yaml | 7a06d92a0b76...68b40906 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv | 9e16b248d8cf...a872f186 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json | 18982ae0e2a6...a332b9b6 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md | 7d38f392b65b...df4a5e18 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 0e5a222ebba0...ecaa5c5f |