5 valid allocations
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
Test proof files
CB-2026-05-29-1M
One-month CapitalBench portfolio evaluation round scored from the May 29, 2026 adjusted close to the June 29, 2026 adjusted close.
Test CB-2026-05-29-1M pending
Picks Saved By 2026-05-30
Start Date 2026-05-29
End Date 2026-06-29
Run ID official-20260529-1M
- 1 Inputs saved
7 public proof hashes are available.
- 2 Portfolios collected
5 valid model allocations.
- 3 Start priced
70 starting-price rows published.
- 4 Ending prices pending
Scores publish after 2026-06-29 prices are available.
Test state
Pending Score Pending
This test has saved inputs and model portfolios. The scoreboard remains unavailable until ending prices are collected.
70 saved choices
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Ending prices pending
Asset return, portfolio return, S&P 500 return, return versus S&P 500, and regret publish after scoring.
Input proof hashes
7 artifacts published.
Public run selected
official-20260529-1M
Model-facing prompt available
65,383 shared prompt characters.
Ending prices pending
Scoreboard rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Interim tracking
Weekly Performance Vs S&P 500
Once at least one week of prices exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the test start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
Weekly chart pending
At least one weekly price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
Saved model-facing context
Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 65,383 characters
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make one-shot market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task. This is a one-month round:
- Research cutoff: 2026-05-29T22:45:00Z.
- Decision deadline: 2026-05-30T00:00:00Z.
- Entry price: adjusted close on Friday, May 29, 2026.
- Exit price: adjusted close on Monday, June 29, 2026.
- Results are calculated only after regular U.S. trading ends on June 29, 2026.
The portfolio is measured from the May 29, 2026 adjusted close to the June 29, 2026 adjusted close. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before the June 29, 2026 exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-month scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the June 29, 2026 exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-month realized portfolio return, measured from the May 29, 2026 adjusted close to the June 29, 2026 adjusted close, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official one-shot leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-month round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-05-29-1M
- Decision date: 2026-05-29
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-05-29T22:45:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-05-30T00:00:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-05-29
- Exit date: 2026-06-29
- Scoring window: 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-29; optimize for this one month window only.
- Close-to-close scoring: the entry price is the adjusted close on the entry date, and the exit price is the adjusted close on the exit date after regular trading ends.
- Timeline focus: prioritize facts, catalysts, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before the exit close.
- Input-bias control: treat fact inclusion, section order, grouping, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendations; do not infer expected return from mention count or placement.
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close on Friday, May 29, 2026 for each option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close on Monday, June 29, 2026 for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Submission format: portfolio
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
- Portfolio holdings allowed: 1-5
- Portfolio allocation increment: 5%
- Portfolio minimum allocation: 5%
- Portfolio total allocation: 100%
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Briefing
## 1. Neutrality And Bias-Control Statement
This briefing provides factual market context only. It does not rank or recommend any CapitalBench option. Some facts are grouped by broad asset area for readability; inclusion, order, and grouping are not evidence of expected return.
## 2. Research And Evaluation Setup
| field | value |
| --- | --- |
| research cutoff | 2026-05-29T22:45:00Z |
| decision deadline | 2026-05-30T00:00:00Z |
| evaluation horizon | one month |
| model access rule | no tool use and no web access |
| shared-input rule | competing models receive the same frozen factual briefing, fixed ETF option universe, and mechanical return table |
## 3. Macro, Rates, Credit, Liquidity, And Volatility
### Core Macro Table
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 0.6% | 0.9% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 3.8% | 3.3% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 0.4% | 0.2% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 2.8% | 2.6% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | PCE price index | 0.4% | 0.7% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index | 3.8% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 from same month one year ago | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 0.2% | 0.3% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.3% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 from same month one year ago | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 1.4% | 0.7% in March 2026 and 0.6% in February 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 13, 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 6.0% | 4.3% in March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 13, 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| labor | unemployment rate | 4.3% | unchanged at 4.3% | prior value | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | nonfarm payroll employment | +115,000 jobs | March 2026 revised to +185,000 jobs | prior value | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | $37.41 | +0.2% over the month and +3.6% over the year | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims | 215,000 | increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level | week-over-week change | week ending May 23, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims |
| growth | real GDP | +1.6% annual rate | revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate; Q4 2025 was +0.5% | revision and prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | May 28, 2026 | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| growth | retail and food services sales | $757.1 billion | up 0.5% from previous month and up 4.9% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 14, 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| growth | current-dollar personal consumption expenditures | +$111.1 billion; +0.5% | 1.0% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| growth | industrial production | 102.5 index; +0.7% | -0.3% in March 2026; 1.4% above April 2025 | prior value and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 15, 2026 | Federal Reserve G.17 |
| business surveys | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | same reading as March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 1, 2026 | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| business surveys | ISM Services PMI | 53.6 | 54.0 in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 5, 2026 | ISM Services PMI |
| consumer | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | 44.8 | 49.8 in April 2026 and 52.2 in May 2025 | prior value and year-over-year change | May 2026 final | May 22, 2026 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| consumer | Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index | 93.1 | down 0.7 points from upwardly revised 93.8 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | May 26, 2026 | The Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| housing | housing starts | 1,465,000 SAAR | down 2.8% from revised March 2026 and up 4.6% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| housing | building permits | 1,442,000 SAAR | up 5.8% from revised March 2026 and down 0.2% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| housing | existing-home sales | 4.02 million sales | increased by 0.2% in April 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 2026 | National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales |
### Rates, Fed, Credit, Liquidity, And Volatility
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Federal Reserve policy | federal funds target range | 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | current target range | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| Federal Reserve policy | latest FOMC decision | maintain target range at 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 FOMC meeting | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| Federal Reserve policy | next scheduled FOMC meeting | June 16-17, 2026 | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2026 FOMC calendar | May 20, 2026 calendar update | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| Federal Reserve policy | effective federal funds rate | 3.62% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DFF |
| Federal Reserve policy | June 17, 2026 target-rate probability for 3.50% to 3.75% | 99.4% | 99.1% previous day and 96.5% previous week | prior value and week-over-week change | updated May 29, 2026 5:25 PM EDT | May 29, 2026 | Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor Tool |
| Treasury yields | 3-month Treasury constant maturity rate | 3.69% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DGS3MO |
| Treasury yields | 2-year Treasury constant maturity rate | 3.99% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DGS2 |
| Treasury yields | 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate | 4.45% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DGS10 |
| Treasury yields | 30-year Treasury constant maturity rate | 4.98% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DGS30 |
| real rates | 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed security constant maturity rate | 2.06% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DFII10 |
| inflation expectations | 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.39% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED T10YIE |
| Treasury spreads | 10-year Treasury minus 2-year Treasury constant maturity spread | 0.46 percentage point | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED T10Y2Y |
| currency | U.S. Dollar Index futures | 98.890 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 | May 29, 2026 22:58:59 source time | Stooq DX.F Quote |
| volatility | CBOE Volatility Index | 15.74 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED VIXCLS |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread | 0.73% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread | 2.72% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| financial conditions | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index | -0.510 | not source-reported | not source-reported | week ending May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | FRED NFCI |
| liquidity | total money market fund assets | $7.77 trillion | increased by $16.88 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 20, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Investment Company Institute Money Market Fund Assets |
| liquidity | Federal Reserve total assets | $6.704383 trillion | not source-reported | not source-reported | week ending May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED WALCL |
| liquidity | Treasury General Account balance | $830.296 billion | not source-reported | not source-reported | week ending May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED WTREGEN |
| housing rates | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average | 6.53% | 6.51% previous week | prior value | week ending May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED MORTGAGE30US |
### Commodity And Currency State
| measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI crude futures | $87.76 per barrel | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:59:57 source time | Stooq CL.F Quote |
| Brent crude spot | $102.75 per barrel | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | FRED DCOILBRENTEU |
| natural gas futures | $3.290 per MMBtu | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 23:38:24 source time | Stooq NG.F Quote |
| gold futures | $4,569.90 per t oz | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:59:58 source time | Stooq GC.F Quote |
| silver futures | 7,556.7 USd per t oz | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:58:59 source time | Stooq SI.F Quote |
| high grade copper futures | 639.63 USd per lb | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:58:59 source time | Stooq HG.F Quote |
| U.S. Dollar Index futures | 98.890 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:58:59 source time | Stooq DX.F Quote |
| euro / U.S. dollar | 1.16646 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:00:20 source time | Stooq EURUSD Quote |
| U.S. dollar / Japanese yen | 159.2635 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:00:28 source time | Stooq USDJPY Quote |
## 4. Scheduled Calendar Inside The Scoring Window
| date | event | publisher_or_entity | release_type_or_asset_area | consensus_or_forecast_if_source_reported | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| June 1, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 3, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 5, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Employment Situation, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | labor market release | not source-reported | BLS Employment Situation |
| June 9, 2026 10:00 AM ET | Existing-Home Sales, May 2026 | National Association of Realtors | housing release | not source-reported | NAR Existing-Home Sales |
| June 10, 2026 8:30 AM ET | CPI, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS CPI News Release |
| June 11, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Producer Price Index, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS Producer Price Index |
| June 11, 2026 | Governing Council monetary policy meeting, day 2, followed by press conference | European Central Bank | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | ECB Governing Council Calendar |
| June 16, 2026 8:30 AM ET | New Residential Construction, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau and HUD | housing release | not source-reported | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| June 16-17, 2026 | FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| June 16-17, 2026 | Monetary Policy Meeting | Bank of Japan | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of Japan MPM Schedule |
| June 17, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau | economic data release | not source-reported | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| June 25, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026; GDP third estimate, Q1 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | economic data releases | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule |
| June 9, 2026 | Short-Term Energy Outlook next release | U.S. Energy Information Administration | energy and oil; broad commodities | not source-reported | EIA STEO |
| June 10, 2026 | Interest rate announcement | Bank of Canada | Canada equities; Canadian dollar | not source-reported | Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate |
| June 11, 2026 | ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting | European Central Bank | Europe equities; euro | not source-reported | ECB Governing Council Calendar |
| June 18, 2026 | Monetary Policy Committee decision | Bank of England | UK equities; sterling | not source-reported | Bank of England MPC Dates |
## 5. Balanced Asset-Area Context
| asset_area | covered_area | fact_type | balance_role | factual_statement | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | date_or_period | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | federal funds and short bills | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| bonds and rates | Treasury curve | observed_value | current_condition | The 3-month, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury constant maturity rates were 3.69%, 3.99%, 4.45%, and 4.98%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | FRED Treasury Rates |
| bonds and rates | central-bank calendar | scheduled_event | scheduled_event | The next scheduled FOMC meeting is June 16-17, 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | June 16-17, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| credit | corporate credit | observed_value | current_condition | The ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread was 0.73%, and the ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread was 2.72%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | FRED BAMLC0A0CM and BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| broad US equities | corporate profits | observed_value | current_condition | Profits from current production increased $40.4 billion in Q1 2026. | $246.9 billion increase in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| broad US equities | real GDP | observed_value | counterbalancing_fact | Real GDP increased at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1 2026. | revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate; Q4 2025 was +0.5% | revision and prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| financials and regional banks | banking industry | observed_value | current_condition | FDIC-insured institutions reported a 1.26% return on assets ratio and $80.5 billion of aggregate net income. | net income increased $2.8 billion, or 3.6%, from the prior quarter | prior value | Q1 2026 | FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile |
| consumer sectors | consumer spending | observed_value | current_condition | Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures increased $111.1 billion, or 0.5%. | 1.0% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| consumer sectors | consumer sentiment | observed_value | counterbalancing_fact | The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 44.8. | 49.8 in April 2026 and 52.2 in May 2025 | prior value and year-over-year change | May 2026 final | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| consumer sectors | retail sales calendar | scheduled_event | scheduled_event | Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for May 2026 is scheduled for release on June 17, 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | June 17, 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| real estate | housing construction | observed_value | current_condition | Housing starts were 1,465,000 SAAR, and building permits were 1,442,000 SAAR. | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| real estate | mortgage reference rates | observed_value | counterbalancing_fact | The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.53%. | 6.51% previous week | prior value | week ending May 28, 2026 | FRED MORTGAGE30US |
| healthcare and biotechnology | prescription-drug policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | CMS published the selected-drug list and negotiated prices file for Medicare maximum fair prices. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | CMS Selected Drugs and Negotiated Prices |
| software | software prices | observed_value | current_condition | The PCE Computer Software and Accessories category increased 13.9% year over year and roughly 73.1% annualized from November 2025 through March 2026. | average annualized rate of -5.3% over the prior 25 years | prior value | November 2025 through March 2026 | Federal Reserve FEDS Notes |
| semiconductors | global chip sales | observed_value | current_condition | Global semiconductor sales were $298.5 billion during Q1 2026. | up 25% compared to Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| broad AI technology | AI spending | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | Gartner forecast worldwide AI spending to total $2.59 trillion in 2026. | 47% increase year over year | year-over-year change | 2026 forecast, published May 2026 | Business Wire / Gartner |
| AI infrastructure and utilities | AI capital expenditure and data-center electricity | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | IEA reported capital expenditure of five large technology companies was more than $400 billion in 2025. | set to increase by a further 75% in 2026 | consensus / forecast comparison | 2025 and 2026 forecast, published April 16, 2026 | IEA Energy and AI |
| utilities | electricity demand | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | EIA forecast U.S. electricity demand would rise 1.3% in 2026, average almost 4,250 billion kilowatthours, and grow another 3.1% in 2027. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| solar | utility-scale solar generation | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | EIA said its utility-scale solar generation forecast for 2026 was 1.4% higher than in the previous STEO. | 1.4% higher than previous STEO | revision | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| autonomous technology and robotics | North American robot orders | observed_value | current_condition | North American companies ordered 9,055 robots valued at $543 million in Q1 2026. | units decreased 0.1% and revenue declined 6.4% year over year | year-over-year change | Q1 2026 | Business Wire / Association for Advancing Automation |
| cybersecurity | AI cybersecurity spending | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | Gartner listed AI cybersecurity spending of $85.997 billion in 2026 in its worldwide AI spending forecast. | $51.347 billion in 2025 | prior value | 2026 forecast, published May 2026 | Business Wire / Gartner |
| aerospace and defense | U.S. defense budget request | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | The FY2027 U.S. defense budget request totaled $1.5 trillion, including a $1.15 trillion base request and $350 billion from reconciliation. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | Breaking Defense |
| energy and oil | crude oil outlook | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | EIA forecast global oil inventories would decrease by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026. | last month's STEO forecast a 0.3 million barrel per day decrease | prior value | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| energy and oil | OPEC supply policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | counterbalancing_fact | Seven OPEC+ countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from previous voluntary adjustments. | not source-reported | not source-reported | decision on May 3, 2026; adjustment for June 2026 | OPEC |
| broad commodities | commodity indexes | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | The World Bank forecast overall commodity prices to increase 16% in 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook | World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook |
| precious metals | gold and silver | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | The World Bank forecast average precious-metals prices to increase 42% in 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook | World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook |
| metals and mining | base metals and copper | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | The World Bank said average base-metals prices were projected to reach all-time highs. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook | World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook |
| agriculture | grains and oilseeds | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | USDA forecast the U.S. corn crop at 16.0 billion bushels for 2026/27. | down 6% from a year ago | year-over-year change | 2026/27 marketing year forecast, May 2026 WASDE | USDA WASDE |
| currencies | U.S. dollar, euro, and yen | observed_value | current_condition | U.S. Dollar Index futures, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY were quoted at 98.890, 1.16646, and 159.2635, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 | Stooq Currency Quotes |
| crypto proxies | bitcoin and ethereum | observed_value | current_condition | Bitcoin and ethereum were quoted at 73,346.17 and 2,008.484, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 30, 2026 source time | Stooq Crypto Quotes |
| Europe equities | euro area policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | The ECB held the deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 30, 2026 | European Central Bank |
| Japan equities | Japan policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | The Bank of Japan encouraged the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 28, 2026 | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement |
| China equities | credit policy and manufacturing survey | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | China's one-year Loan Prime Rate was 3.0%, and its five-year Loan Prime Rate was 3.5%; China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.3 in April 2026. | manufacturing PMI down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month | month-over-month change | May 2026 LPR; April 2026 PMI | Trading Economics China Interest Rate; National Bureau of Statistics of China PMI |
| India equities | inflation and monetary policy | observed_value | current_condition | India's April 2026 CPI inflation was 3.48%, and the Reserve Bank of India policy repo rate was 5.25%. | CPI was 3.40% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 CPI; April 2026 monetary policy | Press Information Bureau India CPI; Reserve Bank of India Current Rates |
## 6. Factual Tension Ledger
| area_or_asset_area | source_reported_fact_1 | source_reported_fact_2 | unresolved_question | source_or_sources |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation and growth | PCE price index increased 3.8% from the same month one year ago in April 2026 | real GDP increased at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1 2026 second estimate | May 2026 CPI and PCE releases | BEA Personal Income and Outlays; BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| labor and inflation | unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3% in April 2026 | CPI-U all items rose 3.8% over the 12 months ending April 2026 | May 2026 Employment Situation and CPI releases | BLS Employment Situation; BLS CPI News Release |
| consumer and spending | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 44.8 in May 2026 final results | current-dollar PCE increased 0.5% in April 2026 | May 2026 retail sales release | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| rates and credit | 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate was 4.45% on May 28, 2026 | ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread was 2.72% on May 28, 2026 | June 16-17, 2026 FOMC decision | FRED DGS10; FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| housing | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.53% for the week ending May 28, 2026 | existing-home sales were 4.02 million in April 2026 | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales releases | FRED MORTGAGE30US; National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales |
| commodities and inflation | WTI crude futures were $87.76 per barrel on May 29, 2026 | Producer Price Index final demand energy rose 7.8% in April 2026 | May 2026 CPI energy index and PPI energy index releases | Stooq CL.F Quote; BLS Producer Price Index |
| bonds and rates | The 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate was 4.45% on May 28, 2026. | The next scheduled FOMC meeting is June 16-17, 2026. | June 2026 FOMC policy decision | FRED DGS10; Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| broad US equities | Profits from current production increased $40.4 billion in Q1 2026. | Real GDP increased at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1 2026 and was revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate. | Q1 2026 third GDP and corporate-profits estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| consumer sectors | Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% in April 2026. | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 44.8 in May 2026 final results. | May 2026 retail sales release | BEA Personal Income and Outlays; University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| real estate | Housing starts were 1,465,000 SAAR in April 2026. | The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.53% for the week ending May 28, 2026. | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales releases | Census/HUD New Residential Construction; FRED MORTGAGE30US |
## 7. Source-Reported Uncertainties And Missing Major Data
### Source-Reported Uncertainties
| uncertainty | source-reported wording or concise factual paraphrase | source date if provided | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation release outcomes | May 2026 CPI, PPI, and PCE outcomes were scheduled but not included as released data in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
| labor release outcome | The May 2026 Employment Situation was scheduled but not included as released data in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
| central-bank decisions | June 2026 FOMC, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and PBOC events were scheduled; outcomes were not provided in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
| housing data | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales were not released in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
| energy and commodity policy data | The next EIA STEO release and June 2026 OPEC+ review were not included as completed events in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
### Missing Major Data
| data_area | missing_item | note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| inflation | May 2026 CPI | not provided in source reports |
| inflation | May 2026 PPI | not provided in source reports |
| inflation | May 2026 PCE price index and core PCE price index | not provided in source reports |
| labor | May 2026 Employment Situation | not provided in source reports |
| business surveys | May 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI | not provided in source reports |
| growth | May 2026 retail sales | not provided in source reports |
| housing | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales | not provided in source reports |
| growth | Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate | not provided in source reports |
## 8. Full-Universe Trailing Returns
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-05-29 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-29 | 0.08% | 0.33% | 1.81% | 3.92% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-29 | 1.45% | 6.31% | 11.33% | 29.68% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-29 | 1.57% | 6.38% | 11.44% | 29.93% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 2.89% | 11.60% | 19.53% | 42.68% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-29 | 2.28% | 7.62% | 7.54% | 28.41% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-29 | 0.69% | 4.80% | 14.31% | 28.47% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-29 | 1.50% | 4.23% | 13.27% | 25.43% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-29 | 1.86% | 6.74% | 17.36% | 42.42% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-29 | 1.21% | 4.77% | 18.37% | 43.44% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-29 | -1.01% | 3.34% | 19.99% | 28.88% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-29 | -2.54% | -2.07% | -0.22% | 0.95% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-29 | 4.02% | 13.72% | 26.65% | 38.22% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 5.89% | 20.06% | 33.84% | 65.87% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 0.20% | 0.35% | 0.90% | 15.98% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 1.42% | 3.45% | 2.63% | 13.33% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -2.23% | -0.01% | 5.89% | 3.77% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -0.28% | 4.64% | -4.40% | 14.94% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -0.69% | -0.65% | -2.45% | 2.99% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 0.79% | 1.88% | 13.34% | 22.92% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -5.38% | -4.64% | 26.33% | 41.26% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 1.71% | 0.37% | 15.52% | 20.80% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -2.05% | -2.76% | -0.56% | 12.65% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -1.28% | 0.80% | 7.43% | 9.16% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.82% | 0.17% | -1.06% | 4.29% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 1.28% | 0.44% | -2.78% | 4.08% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.75% | 0.34% | 1.07% | 5.01% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-29 | 0.91% | 0.97% | 0.02% | 6.45% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-29 | 0.50% | 0.75% | 2.10% | 7.08% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.63% | 0.43% | 0.21% | 5.29% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.86% | 6.99% | 18.74% | 33.39% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.53% | 3.10% | 12.42% | 29.42% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.62% | 4.55% | 10.73% | 19.76% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.47% | 7.08% | 16.23% | 31.38% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | -0.79% | -3.04% | -10.32% | 4.57% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.35% | -0.96% | -11.24% | -11.05% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-29 | 0.80% | -0.07% | 7.66% | 36.70% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -3.19% | -4.76% | 33.06% | 44.74% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 3.92% | 19.89% | 70.54% | 146.14% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 8.14% | 20.31% | -2.33% | -0.67% | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 7.18% | 22.31% | 34.38% | 66.76% | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 4.86% | 15.91% | 30.27% | 78.45% | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 5.65% | 31.19% | 21.45% | 26.08% | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-05-29 | 12.10% | 31.74% | 51.16% | 131.54% | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-05-29 | 6.95% | 9.25% | 29.20% | 108.43% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-05-29 | 1.09% | 4.20% | 9.93% | 20.29% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-05-29 | 3.82% | 6.04% | 11.34% | 70.50% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-05-29 | 0.35% | 0.84% | 11.83% | 24.56% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-05-29 | 4.47% | 10.46% | 14.87% | 34.25% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.51% | 3.21% | 12.59% | 33.39% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | -0.34% | 2.04% | 10.87% | 22.69% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.63% | 2.20% | 15.10% | 17.81% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 13.07% | 33.69% | 131.66% | 240.64% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 6.13% | 17.88% | 66.67% | 103.36% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | -1.26% | -7.09% | 10.68% | 36.74% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.86% | 4.02% | 16.86% | 32.95% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 3.12% | 4.41% | 9.72% | 39.66% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.75% | 0.55% | 1.09% | 7.00% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.94% | 0.39% | 1.37% | 6.41% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-05-29 | 1.32% | 1.41% | 2.26% | 12.02% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.56% | 1.22% | 0.40% | 2.27% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -0.04% | 5.38% | 33.43% | 125.51% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -0.15% | 8.03% | 20.38% | 33.26% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -1.12% | -3.06% | 6.84% | 6.24% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -8.39% | -14.30% | 81.64% | 92.13% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-05-29 | -0.40% | 0.18% | 1.41% | 4.18% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-05-29 | 0.56% | 0.02% | 0.93% | 3.39% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-05-29 | -0.14% | 0.63% | -2.21% | -9.83% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-29 | -3.10% | -2.62% | -19.24% | -30.61% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-29 | -2.38% | -9.79% | -33.77% | -24.34% | pass |
## 9. Coverage And Bias Audit
| asset_area | final_rows_in_briefing | current_condition_rows | counterbalancing_or_uncertainty_rows | scheduled_event_rows | note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| bonds and rates | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| credit | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| broad US equities | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| financials and regional banks | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| consumer sectors | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| real estate | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| healthcare and biotechnology | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| software | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| semiconductors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| broad AI technology | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| AI infrastructure and utilities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| utilities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| solar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| autonomous technology and robotics | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| cybersecurity | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| aerospace and defense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| energy and oil | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| broad commodities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| precious metals | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| metals and mining | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| agriculture | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| currencies | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| crypto proxies | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| Europe equities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| Japan equities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| China equities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| India equities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
## 10. Final Neutrality Statement
This briefing provides factual market context only. It does not rank or recommend any CapitalBench option. Some facts are grouped by broad asset area for readability; inclusion, order, and grouping are not evidence of expected return.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.Base Instructions prompt.md
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make one-shot market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task. This is a one-month round:
- Research cutoff: 2026-05-29T22:45:00Z.
- Decision deadline: 2026-05-30T00:00:00Z.
- Entry price: adjusted close on Friday, May 29, 2026.
- Exit price: adjusted close on Monday, June 29, 2026.
- Results are calculated only after regular U.S. trading ends on June 29, 2026.
The portfolio is measured from the May 29, 2026 adjusted close to the June 29, 2026 adjusted close. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before the June 29, 2026 exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-month scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the June 29, 2026 exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-month realized portfolio return, measured from the May 29, 2026 adjusted close to the June 29, 2026 adjusted close, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official one-shot leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-month round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.Round Manifest manifest.yaml
round_id: CB-2026-05-29-1M
title: CapitalBench May 29 2026 One-Month Portfolio Round
description: One-month CapitalBench portfolio evaluation round scored from the May 29, 2026 adjusted close to the June 29, 2026 adjusted close.
decision_date: '2026-05-29'
decision_deadline: '2026-05-30T00:00:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use adjusted close on Friday, May 29, 2026 for each option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close on Monday, June 29, 2026 for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
entry_date: '2026-05-29'
exit_date: '2026-06-29'
created_at: '2026-05-29T22:39:02.436311+00:00'
notes: Research cutoff is 2026-05-29T22:45:00Z. This is a monthly-track round with a May 29 close to June 29 close scoring window and separate manifest, prompt, model input, hashes, run folder, prices, and resolution job.Briefing briefing.md
# CapitalBench Briefing
## 1. Neutrality And Bias-Control Statement
This briefing provides factual market context only. It does not rank or recommend any CapitalBench option. Some facts are grouped by broad asset area for readability; inclusion, order, and grouping are not evidence of expected return.
## 2. Research And Evaluation Setup
| field | value |
| --- | --- |
| research cutoff | 2026-05-29T22:45:00Z |
| decision deadline | 2026-05-30T00:00:00Z |
| evaluation horizon | one month |
| model access rule | no tool use and no web access |
| shared-input rule | competing models receive the same frozen factual briefing, fixed ETF option universe, and mechanical return table |
## 3. Macro, Rates, Credit, Liquidity, And Volatility
### Core Macro Table
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 0.6% | 0.9% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 3.8% | 3.3% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 0.4% | 0.2% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 2.8% | 2.6% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | PCE price index | 0.4% | 0.7% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index | 3.8% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 from same month one year ago | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 0.2% | 0.3% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.3% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 from same month one year ago | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 1.4% | 0.7% in March 2026 and 0.6% in February 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 13, 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 6.0% | 4.3% in March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 13, 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| labor | unemployment rate | 4.3% | unchanged at 4.3% | prior value | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | nonfarm payroll employment | +115,000 jobs | March 2026 revised to +185,000 jobs | prior value | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | $37.41 | +0.2% over the month and +3.6% over the year | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims | 215,000 | increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level | week-over-week change | week ending May 23, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims |
| growth | real GDP | +1.6% annual rate | revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate; Q4 2025 was +0.5% | revision and prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | May 28, 2026 | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| growth | retail and food services sales | $757.1 billion | up 0.5% from previous month and up 4.9% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 14, 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| growth | current-dollar personal consumption expenditures | +$111.1 billion; +0.5% | 1.0% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| growth | industrial production | 102.5 index; +0.7% | -0.3% in March 2026; 1.4% above April 2025 | prior value and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 15, 2026 | Federal Reserve G.17 |
| business surveys | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | same reading as March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 1, 2026 | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| business surveys | ISM Services PMI | 53.6 | 54.0 in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 5, 2026 | ISM Services PMI |
| consumer | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | 44.8 | 49.8 in April 2026 and 52.2 in May 2025 | prior value and year-over-year change | May 2026 final | May 22, 2026 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| consumer | Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index | 93.1 | down 0.7 points from upwardly revised 93.8 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | May 26, 2026 | The Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| housing | housing starts | 1,465,000 SAAR | down 2.8% from revised March 2026 and up 4.6% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| housing | building permits | 1,442,000 SAAR | up 5.8% from revised March 2026 and down 0.2% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| housing | existing-home sales | 4.02 million sales | increased by 0.2% in April 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 2026 | National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales |
### Rates, Fed, Credit, Liquidity, And Volatility
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Federal Reserve policy | federal funds target range | 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | current target range | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| Federal Reserve policy | latest FOMC decision | maintain target range at 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 FOMC meeting | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| Federal Reserve policy | next scheduled FOMC meeting | June 16-17, 2026 | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2026 FOMC calendar | May 20, 2026 calendar update | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| Federal Reserve policy | effective federal funds rate | 3.62% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DFF |
| Federal Reserve policy | June 17, 2026 target-rate probability for 3.50% to 3.75% | 99.4% | 99.1% previous day and 96.5% previous week | prior value and week-over-week change | updated May 29, 2026 5:25 PM EDT | May 29, 2026 | Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor Tool |
| Treasury yields | 3-month Treasury constant maturity rate | 3.69% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DGS3MO |
| Treasury yields | 2-year Treasury constant maturity rate | 3.99% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DGS2 |
| Treasury yields | 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate | 4.45% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DGS10 |
| Treasury yields | 30-year Treasury constant maturity rate | 4.98% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DGS30 |
| real rates | 10-year Treasury inflation-indexed security constant maturity rate | 2.06% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED DFII10 |
| inflation expectations | 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.39% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED T10YIE |
| Treasury spreads | 10-year Treasury minus 2-year Treasury constant maturity spread | 0.46 percentage point | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED T10Y2Y |
| currency | U.S. Dollar Index futures | 98.890 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 | May 29, 2026 22:58:59 source time | Stooq DX.F Quote |
| volatility | CBOE Volatility Index | 15.74 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED VIXCLS |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread | 0.73% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread | 2.72% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| financial conditions | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index | -0.510 | not source-reported | not source-reported | week ending May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | FRED NFCI |
| liquidity | total money market fund assets | $7.77 trillion | increased by $16.88 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 20, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Investment Company Institute Money Market Fund Assets |
| liquidity | Federal Reserve total assets | $6.704383 trillion | not source-reported | not source-reported | week ending May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED WALCL |
| liquidity | Treasury General Account balance | $830.296 billion | not source-reported | not source-reported | week ending May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED WTREGEN |
| housing rates | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average | 6.53% | 6.51% previous week | prior value | week ending May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | FRED MORTGAGE30US |
### Commodity And Currency State
| measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI crude futures | $87.76 per barrel | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:59:57 source time | Stooq CL.F Quote |
| Brent crude spot | $102.75 per barrel | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | FRED DCOILBRENTEU |
| natural gas futures | $3.290 per MMBtu | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 23:38:24 source time | Stooq NG.F Quote |
| gold futures | $4,569.90 per t oz | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:59:58 source time | Stooq GC.F Quote |
| silver futures | 7,556.7 USd per t oz | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:58:59 source time | Stooq SI.F Quote |
| high grade copper futures | 639.63 USd per lb | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:58:59 source time | Stooq HG.F Quote |
| U.S. Dollar Index futures | 98.890 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:58:59 source time | Stooq DX.F Quote |
| euro / U.S. dollar | 1.16646 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:00:20 source time | Stooq EURUSD Quote |
| U.S. dollar / Japanese yen | 159.2635 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 22:00:28 source time | Stooq USDJPY Quote |
## 4. Scheduled Calendar Inside The Scoring Window
| date | event | publisher_or_entity | release_type_or_asset_area | consensus_or_forecast_if_source_reported | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| June 1, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 3, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 5, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Employment Situation, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | labor market release | not source-reported | BLS Employment Situation |
| June 9, 2026 10:00 AM ET | Existing-Home Sales, May 2026 | National Association of Realtors | housing release | not source-reported | NAR Existing-Home Sales |
| June 10, 2026 8:30 AM ET | CPI, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS CPI News Release |
| June 11, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Producer Price Index, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS Producer Price Index |
| June 11, 2026 | Governing Council monetary policy meeting, day 2, followed by press conference | European Central Bank | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | ECB Governing Council Calendar |
| June 16, 2026 8:30 AM ET | New Residential Construction, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau and HUD | housing release | not source-reported | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| June 16-17, 2026 | FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| June 16-17, 2026 | Monetary Policy Meeting | Bank of Japan | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of Japan MPM Schedule |
| June 17, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau | economic data release | not source-reported | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| June 25, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026; GDP third estimate, Q1 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | economic data releases | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule |
| June 9, 2026 | Short-Term Energy Outlook next release | U.S. Energy Information Administration | energy and oil; broad commodities | not source-reported | EIA STEO |
| June 10, 2026 | Interest rate announcement | Bank of Canada | Canada equities; Canadian dollar | not source-reported | Bank of Canada Policy Interest Rate |
| June 11, 2026 | ECB Governing Council monetary policy meeting | European Central Bank | Europe equities; euro | not source-reported | ECB Governing Council Calendar |
| June 18, 2026 | Monetary Policy Committee decision | Bank of England | UK equities; sterling | not source-reported | Bank of England MPC Dates |
## 5. Balanced Asset-Area Context
| asset_area | covered_area | fact_type | balance_role | factual_statement | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | date_or_period | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | federal funds and short bills | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| bonds and rates | Treasury curve | observed_value | current_condition | The 3-month, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury constant maturity rates were 3.69%, 3.99%, 4.45%, and 4.98%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | FRED Treasury Rates |
| bonds and rates | central-bank calendar | scheduled_event | scheduled_event | The next scheduled FOMC meeting is June 16-17, 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | June 16-17, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| credit | corporate credit | observed_value | current_condition | The ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread was 0.73%, and the ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread was 2.72%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 28, 2026 | FRED BAMLC0A0CM and BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| broad US equities | corporate profits | observed_value | current_condition | Profits from current production increased $40.4 billion in Q1 2026. | $246.9 billion increase in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| broad US equities | real GDP | observed_value | counterbalancing_fact | Real GDP increased at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1 2026. | revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate; Q4 2025 was +0.5% | revision and prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| financials and regional banks | banking industry | observed_value | current_condition | FDIC-insured institutions reported a 1.26% return on assets ratio and $80.5 billion of aggregate net income. | net income increased $2.8 billion, or 3.6%, from the prior quarter | prior value | Q1 2026 | FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile |
| consumer sectors | consumer spending | observed_value | current_condition | Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures increased $111.1 billion, or 0.5%. | 1.0% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| consumer sectors | consumer sentiment | observed_value | counterbalancing_fact | The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 44.8. | 49.8 in April 2026 and 52.2 in May 2025 | prior value and year-over-year change | May 2026 final | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| consumer sectors | retail sales calendar | scheduled_event | scheduled_event | Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services for May 2026 is scheduled for release on June 17, 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | June 17, 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| real estate | housing construction | observed_value | current_condition | Housing starts were 1,465,000 SAAR, and building permits were 1,442,000 SAAR. | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| real estate | mortgage reference rates | observed_value | counterbalancing_fact | The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.53%. | 6.51% previous week | prior value | week ending May 28, 2026 | FRED MORTGAGE30US |
| healthcare and biotechnology | prescription-drug policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | CMS published the selected-drug list and negotiated prices file for Medicare maximum fair prices. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | CMS Selected Drugs and Negotiated Prices |
| software | software prices | observed_value | current_condition | The PCE Computer Software and Accessories category increased 13.9% year over year and roughly 73.1% annualized from November 2025 through March 2026. | average annualized rate of -5.3% over the prior 25 years | prior value | November 2025 through March 2026 | Federal Reserve FEDS Notes |
| semiconductors | global chip sales | observed_value | current_condition | Global semiconductor sales were $298.5 billion during Q1 2026. | up 25% compared to Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| broad AI technology | AI spending | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | Gartner forecast worldwide AI spending to total $2.59 trillion in 2026. | 47% increase year over year | year-over-year change | 2026 forecast, published May 2026 | Business Wire / Gartner |
| AI infrastructure and utilities | AI capital expenditure and data-center electricity | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | IEA reported capital expenditure of five large technology companies was more than $400 billion in 2025. | set to increase by a further 75% in 2026 | consensus / forecast comparison | 2025 and 2026 forecast, published April 16, 2026 | IEA Energy and AI |
| utilities | electricity demand | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | EIA forecast U.S. electricity demand would rise 1.3% in 2026, average almost 4,250 billion kilowatthours, and grow another 3.1% in 2027. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| solar | utility-scale solar generation | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | EIA said its utility-scale solar generation forecast for 2026 was 1.4% higher than in the previous STEO. | 1.4% higher than previous STEO | revision | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| autonomous technology and robotics | North American robot orders | observed_value | current_condition | North American companies ordered 9,055 robots valued at $543 million in Q1 2026. | units decreased 0.1% and revenue declined 6.4% year over year | year-over-year change | Q1 2026 | Business Wire / Association for Advancing Automation |
| cybersecurity | AI cybersecurity spending | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | Gartner listed AI cybersecurity spending of $85.997 billion in 2026 in its worldwide AI spending forecast. | $51.347 billion in 2025 | prior value | 2026 forecast, published May 2026 | Business Wire / Gartner |
| aerospace and defense | U.S. defense budget request | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | The FY2027 U.S. defense budget request totaled $1.5 trillion, including a $1.15 trillion base request and $350 billion from reconciliation. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | Breaking Defense |
| energy and oil | crude oil outlook | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | EIA forecast global oil inventories would decrease by 2.6 million barrels per day in 2026. | last month's STEO forecast a 0.3 million barrel per day decrease | prior value | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| energy and oil | OPEC supply policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | counterbalancing_fact | Seven OPEC+ countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from previous voluntary adjustments. | not source-reported | not source-reported | decision on May 3, 2026; adjustment for June 2026 | OPEC |
| broad commodities | commodity indexes | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | The World Bank forecast overall commodity prices to increase 16% in 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook | World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook |
| precious metals | gold and silver | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | The World Bank forecast average precious-metals prices to increase 42% in 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook | World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook |
| metals and mining | base metals and copper | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | The World Bank said average base-metals prices were projected to reach all-time highs. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook | World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook |
| agriculture | grains and oilseeds | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | current_condition | USDA forecast the U.S. corn crop at 16.0 billion bushels for 2026/27. | down 6% from a year ago | year-over-year change | 2026/27 marketing year forecast, May 2026 WASDE | USDA WASDE |
| currencies | U.S. dollar, euro, and yen | observed_value | current_condition | U.S. Dollar Index futures, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY were quoted at 98.890, 1.16646, and 159.2635, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 29, 2026 | Stooq Currency Quotes |
| crypto proxies | bitcoin and ethereum | observed_value | current_condition | Bitcoin and ethereum were quoted at 73,346.17 and 2,008.484, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 30, 2026 source time | Stooq Crypto Quotes |
| Europe equities | euro area policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | The ECB held the deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 30, 2026 | European Central Bank |
| Japan equities | Japan policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | The Bank of Japan encouraged the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 28, 2026 | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement |
| China equities | credit policy and manufacturing survey | policy_or_regulatory_fact | current_condition | China's one-year Loan Prime Rate was 3.0%, and its five-year Loan Prime Rate was 3.5%; China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.3 in April 2026. | manufacturing PMI down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month | month-over-month change | May 2026 LPR; April 2026 PMI | Trading Economics China Interest Rate; National Bureau of Statistics of China PMI |
| India equities | inflation and monetary policy | observed_value | current_condition | India's April 2026 CPI inflation was 3.48%, and the Reserve Bank of India policy repo rate was 5.25%. | CPI was 3.40% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 CPI; April 2026 monetary policy | Press Information Bureau India CPI; Reserve Bank of India Current Rates |
## 6. Factual Tension Ledger
| area_or_asset_area | source_reported_fact_1 | source_reported_fact_2 | unresolved_question | source_or_sources |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation and growth | PCE price index increased 3.8% from the same month one year ago in April 2026 | real GDP increased at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1 2026 second estimate | May 2026 CPI and PCE releases | BEA Personal Income and Outlays; BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| labor and inflation | unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3% in April 2026 | CPI-U all items rose 3.8% over the 12 months ending April 2026 | May 2026 Employment Situation and CPI releases | BLS Employment Situation; BLS CPI News Release |
| consumer and spending | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 44.8 in May 2026 final results | current-dollar PCE increased 0.5% in April 2026 | May 2026 retail sales release | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| rates and credit | 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate was 4.45% on May 28, 2026 | ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread was 2.72% on May 28, 2026 | June 16-17, 2026 FOMC decision | FRED DGS10; FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| housing | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.53% for the week ending May 28, 2026 | existing-home sales were 4.02 million in April 2026 | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales releases | FRED MORTGAGE30US; National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales |
| commodities and inflation | WTI crude futures were $87.76 per barrel on May 29, 2026 | Producer Price Index final demand energy rose 7.8% in April 2026 | May 2026 CPI energy index and PPI energy index releases | Stooq CL.F Quote; BLS Producer Price Index |
| bonds and rates | The 10-year Treasury constant maturity rate was 4.45% on May 28, 2026. | The next scheduled FOMC meeting is June 16-17, 2026. | June 2026 FOMC policy decision | FRED DGS10; Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| broad US equities | Profits from current production increased $40.4 billion in Q1 2026. | Real GDP increased at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1 2026 and was revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate. | Q1 2026 third GDP and corporate-profits estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| consumer sectors | Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures increased 0.5% in April 2026. | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 44.8 in May 2026 final results. | May 2026 retail sales release | BEA Personal Income and Outlays; University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| real estate | Housing starts were 1,465,000 SAAR in April 2026. | The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.53% for the week ending May 28, 2026. | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales releases | Census/HUD New Residential Construction; FRED MORTGAGE30US |
## 7. Source-Reported Uncertainties And Missing Major Data
### Source-Reported Uncertainties
| uncertainty | source-reported wording or concise factual paraphrase | source date if provided | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation release outcomes | May 2026 CPI, PPI, and PCE outcomes were scheduled but not included as released data in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
| labor release outcome | The May 2026 Employment Situation was scheduled but not included as released data in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
| central-bank decisions | June 2026 FOMC, ECB, BOJ, BOE, and PBOC events were scheduled; outcomes were not provided in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
| housing data | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales were not released in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
| energy and commodity policy data | The next EIA STEO release and June 2026 OPEC+ review were not included as completed events in the input reports. | May 2026 source reports | source_reported_uncertainty |
### Missing Major Data
| data_area | missing_item | note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| inflation | May 2026 CPI | not provided in source reports |
| inflation | May 2026 PPI | not provided in source reports |
| inflation | May 2026 PCE price index and core PCE price index | not provided in source reports |
| labor | May 2026 Employment Situation | not provided in source reports |
| business surveys | May 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI | not provided in source reports |
| growth | May 2026 retail sales | not provided in source reports |
| housing | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales | not provided in source reports |
| growth | Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate | not provided in source reports |
## 8. Full-Universe Trailing Returns
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-05-29 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-29 | 0.08% | 0.33% | 1.81% | 3.92% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-29 | 1.45% | 6.31% | 11.33% | 29.68% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-29 | 1.57% | 6.38% | 11.44% | 29.93% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 2.89% | 11.60% | 19.53% | 42.68% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-29 | 2.28% | 7.62% | 7.54% | 28.41% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-29 | 0.69% | 4.80% | 14.31% | 28.47% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-29 | 1.50% | 4.23% | 13.27% | 25.43% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-29 | 1.86% | 6.74% | 17.36% | 42.42% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-29 | 1.21% | 4.77% | 18.37% | 43.44% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-29 | -1.01% | 3.34% | 19.99% | 28.88% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-29 | -2.54% | -2.07% | -0.22% | 0.95% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-29 | 4.02% | 13.72% | 26.65% | 38.22% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 5.89% | 20.06% | 33.84% | 65.87% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 0.20% | 0.35% | 0.90% | 15.98% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 1.42% | 3.45% | 2.63% | 13.33% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -2.23% | -0.01% | 5.89% | 3.77% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -0.28% | 4.64% | -4.40% | 14.94% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -0.69% | -0.65% | -2.45% | 2.99% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 0.79% | 1.88% | 13.34% | 22.92% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -5.38% | -4.64% | 26.33% | 41.26% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 1.71% | 0.37% | 15.52% | 20.80% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -2.05% | -2.76% | -0.56% | 12.65% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -1.28% | 0.80% | 7.43% | 9.16% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.82% | 0.17% | -1.06% | 4.29% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 1.28% | 0.44% | -2.78% | 4.08% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.75% | 0.34% | 1.07% | 5.01% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-29 | 0.91% | 0.97% | 0.02% | 6.45% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-29 | 0.50% | 0.75% | 2.10% | 7.08% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.63% | 0.43% | 0.21% | 5.29% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.86% | 6.99% | 18.74% | 33.39% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.53% | 3.10% | 12.42% | 29.42% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.62% | 4.55% | 10.73% | 19.76% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.47% | 7.08% | 16.23% | 31.38% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | -0.79% | -3.04% | -10.32% | 4.57% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.35% | -0.96% | -11.24% | -11.05% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-29 | 0.80% | -0.07% | 7.66% | 36.70% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -3.19% | -4.76% | 33.06% | 44.74% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 3.92% | 19.89% | 70.54% | 146.14% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 8.14% | 20.31% | -2.33% | -0.67% | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 7.18% | 22.31% | 34.38% | 66.76% | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 4.86% | 15.91% | 30.27% | 78.45% | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 5.65% | 31.19% | 21.45% | 26.08% | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-05-29 | 12.10% | 31.74% | 51.16% | 131.54% | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-05-29 | 6.95% | 9.25% | 29.20% | 108.43% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-05-29 | 1.09% | 4.20% | 9.93% | 20.29% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-05-29 | 3.82% | 6.04% | 11.34% | 70.50% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-05-29 | 0.35% | 0.84% | 11.83% | 24.56% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-05-29 | 4.47% | 10.46% | 14.87% | 34.25% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.51% | 3.21% | 12.59% | 33.39% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | -0.34% | 2.04% | 10.87% | 22.69% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.63% | 2.20% | 15.10% | 17.81% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 13.07% | 33.69% | 131.66% | 240.64% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 6.13% | 17.88% | 66.67% | 103.36% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | -1.26% | -7.09% | 10.68% | 36.74% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.86% | 4.02% | 16.86% | 32.95% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 3.12% | 4.41% | 9.72% | 39.66% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.75% | 0.55% | 1.09% | 7.00% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.94% | 0.39% | 1.37% | 6.41% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-05-29 | 1.32% | 1.41% | 2.26% | 12.02% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.56% | 1.22% | 0.40% | 2.27% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -0.04% | 5.38% | 33.43% | 125.51% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -0.15% | 8.03% | 20.38% | 33.26% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -1.12% | -3.06% | 6.84% | 6.24% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -8.39% | -14.30% | 81.64% | 92.13% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-05-29 | -0.40% | 0.18% | 1.41% | 4.18% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-05-29 | 0.56% | 0.02% | 0.93% | 3.39% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-05-29 | -0.14% | 0.63% | -2.21% | -9.83% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-29 | -3.10% | -2.62% | -19.24% | -30.61% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-29 | -2.38% | -9.79% | -33.77% | -24.34% | pass |
## 9. Coverage And Bias Audit
| asset_area | final_rows_in_briefing | current_condition_rows | counterbalancing_or_uncertainty_rows | scheduled_event_rows | note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| bonds and rates | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| credit | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| broad US equities | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| financials and regional banks | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| consumer sectors | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| real estate | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| healthcare and biotechnology | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| software | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| semiconductors | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| broad AI technology | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| AI infrastructure and utilities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| utilities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| solar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| autonomous technology and robotics | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| cybersecurity | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| aerospace and defense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| energy and oil | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | final rows preserved from asset-area context |
| broad commodities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| precious metals | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| metals and mining | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| agriculture | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| currencies | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| crypto proxies | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| Europe equities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| Japan equities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| China equities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
| India equities | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | one final row retained |
## 10. Final Neutrality Statement
This briefing provides factual market context only. It does not rank or recommend any CapitalBench option. Some facts are grouped by broad asset area for readability; inclusion, order, and grouping are not evidence of expected return.Full-Universe Trailing Returns market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md
This table is mechanically calculated from Tiingo EOD adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close
- As-of date requested: 2026-05-29
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-05-29 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-29 | 0.08% | 0.33% | 1.81% | 3.92% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-29 | 1.45% | 6.31% | 11.33% | 29.68% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-29 | 1.57% | 6.38% | 11.44% | 29.93% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 2.89% | 11.60% | 19.53% | 42.68% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-29 | 2.28% | 7.62% | 7.54% | 28.41% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-29 | 0.69% | 4.80% | 14.31% | 28.47% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-29 | 1.50% | 4.23% | 13.27% | 25.43% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-29 | 1.86% | 6.74% | 17.36% | 42.42% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-29 | 1.21% | 4.77% | 18.37% | 43.44% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-29 | -1.01% | 3.34% | 19.99% | 28.88% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-29 | -2.54% | -2.07% | -0.22% | 0.95% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-29 | 4.02% | 13.72% | 26.65% | 38.22% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 5.89% | 20.06% | 33.84% | 65.87% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 0.20% | 0.35% | 0.90% | 15.98% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 1.42% | 3.45% | 2.63% | 13.33% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -2.23% | -0.01% | 5.89% | 3.77% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -0.28% | 4.64% | -4.40% | 14.94% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -0.69% | -0.65% | -2.45% | 2.99% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 0.79% | 1.88% | 13.34% | 22.92% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -5.38% | -4.64% | 26.33% | 41.26% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | 1.71% | 0.37% | 15.52% | 20.80% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -2.05% | -2.76% | -0.56% | 12.65% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-29 | -1.28% | 0.80% | 7.43% | 9.16% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.82% | 0.17% | -1.06% | 4.29% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 1.28% | 0.44% | -2.78% | 4.08% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.75% | 0.34% | 1.07% | 5.01% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-29 | 0.91% | 0.97% | 0.02% | 6.45% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-29 | 0.50% | 0.75% | 2.10% | 7.08% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.63% | 0.43% | 0.21% | 5.29% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.86% | 6.99% | 18.74% | 33.39% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.53% | 3.10% | 12.42% | 29.42% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.62% | 4.55% | 10.73% | 19.76% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.47% | 7.08% | 16.23% | 31.38% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | -0.79% | -3.04% | -10.32% | 4.57% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.35% | -0.96% | -11.24% | -11.05% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-29 | 0.80% | -0.07% | 7.66% | 36.70% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -3.19% | -4.76% | 33.06% | 44.74% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 3.92% | 19.89% | 70.54% | 146.14% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 8.14% | 20.31% | -2.33% | -0.67% | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 7.18% | 22.31% | 34.38% | 66.76% | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 4.86% | 15.91% | 30.27% | 78.45% | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-29 | 5.65% | 31.19% | 21.45% | 26.08% | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-05-29 | 12.10% | 31.74% | 51.16% | 131.54% | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-05-29 | 6.95% | 9.25% | 29.20% | 108.43% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-05-29 | 1.09% | 4.20% | 9.93% | 20.29% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-05-29 | 3.82% | 6.04% | 11.34% | 70.50% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-05-29 | 0.35% | 0.84% | 11.83% | 24.56% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-05-29 | 4.47% | 10.46% | 14.87% | 34.25% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.51% | 3.21% | 12.59% | 33.39% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | -0.34% | 2.04% | 10.87% | 22.69% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 1.63% | 2.20% | 15.10% | 17.81% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 13.07% | 33.69% | 131.66% | 240.64% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 6.13% | 17.88% | 66.67% | 103.36% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | -1.26% | -7.09% | 10.68% | 36.74% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 0.86% | 4.02% | 16.86% | 32.95% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-05-29 | 3.12% | 4.41% | 9.72% | 39.66% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.75% | 0.55% | 1.09% | 7.00% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.94% | 0.39% | 1.37% | 6.41% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-05-29 | 1.32% | 1.41% | 2.26% | 12.02% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-29 | 0.56% | 1.22% | 0.40% | 2.27% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -0.04% | 5.38% | 33.43% | 125.51% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -0.15% | 8.03% | 20.38% | 33.26% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -1.12% | -3.06% | 6.84% | 6.24% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-05-29 | -8.39% | -14.30% | 81.64% | 92.13% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-05-29 | -0.40% | 0.18% | 1.41% | 4.18% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-05-29 | 0.56% | 0.02% | 0.93% | 3.39% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-05-29 | -0.14% | 0.63% | -2.21% | -9.83% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-29 | -3.10% | -2.62% | -19.24% | -30.61% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-29 | -2.38% | -9.79% | -33.77% | -24.34% | pass |Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.Source Options YAML options.yaml
options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."Round Hashes hashes.json
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}Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 5 model calls
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-29-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-29-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-29-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-29-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-29-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF Parsed provider responses
Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.7
anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
SMH 25% AIQ 20% IAU 20% ITA 15% CIBR 20%
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Tilt toward AI/semis and defense momentum themes with strong fundamental catalysts, balanced by gold hedge against sticky inflation and weak consumer sentiment ahead of June FOMC.
AI capex acceleration, semis cycle, and defense budget drive equity tilt; gold hedges inflation/sentiment risk into June FOMC.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 25% - Strong momentum, Q1 chip sales +25% QoQ, AI capex set to rise 75% in 2026.
- Broad AI Technology (AIQ): 20% - Gartner $2.59T AI spend forecast; strong momentum into FOMC.
- Gold (IAU): 20% - Hedge against sticky 3.8% CPI, weak consumer sentiment 44.8, real-rate stable.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 15% - $1.5T FY27 defense budget tailwind; strong relative momentum.
- Cybersecurity (CIBR): 20% - AI cybersecurity spend nearly doubling YoY; +31% 30d momentum.
Key Risks
- Hawkish June FOMC if May CPI surprises hot, hitting growth/tech multiples
- Momentum reversal in semis/AI after sharp 30d gains
- Oil/commodity-driven inflation shock pressuring rates and risk assets
- Geopolitical or earnings-guidance shock to defense/semis supply chains
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish June FOMC if May CPI surprises hot, hitting growth/tech multiples",
"Momentum reversal in semis/AI after sharp 30d gains",
"Oil/commodity-driven inflation shock pressuring rates and risk assets",
"Geopolitical or earnings-guidance shock to defense/semis supply chains"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strong momentum, Q1 chip sales +25% QoQ, AI capex set to rise 75% in 2026."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"rationale": "Gartner $2.59T AI spend forecast; strong momentum into FOMC."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Hedge against sticky 3.8% CPI, weak consumer sentiment 44.8, real-rate stable."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "$1.5T FY27 defense budget tailwind; strong relative momentum."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "AI cybersecurity spend nearly doubling YoY; +31% 30d momentum."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward AI/semis and defense momentum themes with strong fundamental catalysts, balanced by gold hedge against sticky inflation and weak consumer sentiment ahead of June FOMC.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "AI capex acceleration, semis cycle, and defense budget drive equity tilt; gold hedges inflation/sentiment risk into June FOMC.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29971,
"latency_seconds": 11.150490541011095,
"output_tokens": 665,
"total_tokens": 30636
}
} Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8
anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
SMH 30% XLK 25% EWT 15% ITA 15% IAU 15%
- Confidence
- 0.60
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Concentrate in AI/semiconductor leadership where momentum, fundamentals (chip sales +25% QoQ, AI capex +75%), and low volatility align, with defense and gold as diversifying ballast against inflation and macro risk.
Overweight tech/semis momentum supported by strong AI capex and chip sales, with aerospace/defense and gold for balance.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 30% - Strong semis momentum, 25% QoQ chip sales growth, AI capex surge; SMH leading with broad strength and low VIX supporting risk-on.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 25% - AI spending forecast $2.59T, software prices accelerating; XLK strongest sector trend with persistent leadership into June.
- Taiwan Equities (EWT): 15% - Semiconductor supply chain leverage with sustained momentum; benefits from AI demand and global electronics cycle.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 15% - $1.5T FY2027 defense request supports durable demand; ITA showing consistent momentum with geopolitical tailwinds.
- Gold (IAU): 15% - Hedge against sticky inflation (PCE 3.8%, PPI 6%) and elevated geopolitical/policy uncertainty into June FOMC.
Key Risks
- June 16-17 FOMC or June 10 CPI surprise triggers tech/growth selloff given sticky 3.8% inflation
- Semiconductor and Taiwan concentration vulnerable to geopolitical shock or AI sentiment reversal
- Crowded momentum trade prone to sharp factor rotation after extended run
- Gold pulls back if real rates rise or risk-on continues uninterrupted
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"June 16-17 FOMC or June 10 CPI surprise triggers tech/growth selloff given sticky 3.8% inflation",
"Semiconductor and Taiwan concentration vulnerable to geopolitical shock or AI sentiment reversal",
"Crowded momentum trade prone to sharp factor rotation after extended run",
"Gold pulls back if real rates rise or risk-on continues uninterrupted"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strong semis momentum, 25% QoQ chip sales growth, AI capex surge; SMH leading with broad strength and low VIX supporting risk-on."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "AI spending forecast $2.59T, software prices accelerating; XLK strongest sector trend with persistent leadership into June."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Semiconductor supply chain leverage with sustained momentum; benefits from AI demand and global electronics cycle."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "$1.5T FY2027 defense request supports durable demand; ITA showing consistent momentum with geopolitical tailwinds."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Hedge against sticky inflation (PCE 3.8%, PPI 6%) and elevated geopolitical/policy uncertainty into June FOMC."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrate in AI/semiconductor leadership where momentum, fundamentals (chip sales +25% QoQ, AI capex +75%), and low volatility align, with defense and gold as diversifying ballast against inflation and macro risk.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight tech/semis momentum supported by strong AI capex and chip sales, with aerospace/defense and gold for balance.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29966,
"latency_seconds": 11.461966629954986,
"output_tokens": 754,
"total_tokens": 30720
}
} Google
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google-gemini-3-1-pro
4 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
SMH 30% EWY 30% TAN 20% XLK 20%
- Confidence
- 0.75
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
This portfolio is heavily tilted toward the AI and semiconductor themes, which are supported by strong fundamental spending forecasts and exceptional price momentum. South Korea provides leveraged geographic exposure to the chip cycle, while Solar adds a high-momentum clean energy component.
Overweighting AI, semiconductors, and related export markets to capitalize on massive projected infrastructure spending and strong trend persistence.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 30% - Strong global chip sales and massive AI infrastructure spending forecasts provide a strong catalyst for continued outperformance.
- South Korea Equities (EWY): 30% - Heavy exposure to semiconductor exports and global electronics demand aligns with the AI infrastructure boom, supported by exceptional recent momentum.
- Solar Energy (TAN): 20% - Upward revisions in utility-scale solar generation forecasts and extremely strong short-term momentum suggest continued capital inflows.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 20% - Broad technology exposure captures the wider benefits of the $2.59 trillion forecasted AI spending while maintaining strong trend persistence.
Key Risks
- A hotter-than-expected June CPI or PCE print could trigger a hawkish shift in rate expectations, disproportionately hurting high-multiple technology and solar stocks.
- Geopolitical tensions in Asia could disrupt semiconductor supply chains, severely impacting both the SEMICONDUCTORS and SOUTH_KOREA allocations.
- A sudden momentum reversal or factor rotation out of high-growth tech could lead to significant short-term underperformance relative to the broader S&P 500.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.75,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hotter-than-expected June CPI or PCE print could trigger a hawkish shift in rate expectations, disproportionately hurting high-multiple technology and solar stocks.",
"Geopolitical tensions in Asia could disrupt semiconductor supply chains, severely impacting both the SEMICONDUCTORS and SOUTH_KOREA allocations.",
"A sudden momentum reversal or factor rotation out of high-growth tech could lead to significant short-term underperformance relative to the broader S&P 500."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strong global chip sales and massive AI infrastructure spending forecasts provide a strong catalyst for continued outperformance."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "Heavy exposure to semiconductor exports and global electronics demand aligns with the AI infrastructure boom, supported by exceptional recent momentum."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"rationale": "Upward revisions in utility-scale solar generation forecasts and extremely strong short-term momentum suggest continued capital inflows."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Broad technology exposure captures the wider benefits of the $2.59 trillion forecasted AI spending while maintaining strong trend persistence."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "This portfolio is heavily tilted toward the AI and semiconductor themes, which are supported by strong fundamental spending forecasts and exceptional price momentum. South Korea provides leveraged geographic exposure to the chip cycle, while Solar adds a high-momentum clean energy component.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweighting AI, semiconductors, and related export markets to capitalize on massive projected infrastructure spending and strong trend persistence.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 20866,
"latency_seconds": 10.795746051007882,
"output_tokens": 518,
"reasoning_tokens": 560,
"total_tokens": 21944
}
} OpenAI
GPT-5.5
openai-gpt-5-5
5 holdings Broad AI Technology (AIQ)
AIQ 30% SMH 25% CIBR 20% EWY 15% TAN 10%
- Confidence
- 0.58
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
The portfolio is intentionally concentrated in high-momentum AI, semiconductor, cybersecurity, and related risk-on exposures because the scoring horizon is only one month and recent trend leadership is pronounced. It avoids low-beta bonds and defensive sectors because tight credit spreads, low volatility, and still-positive growth data favor continued equity risk appetite despite inflation uncertainty.
A concentrated momentum and AI-linked allocation offers the best chance to outperform the S&P 500 over the June window. The main premise is trend persistence in technology and selected high-beta international/thematic exposures before the June 29 exit.
Portfolio
- Broad AI Technology (AIQ): 30% - Strong recent relative momentum with direct support from large AI spending forecasts and ongoing AI infrastructure capex narrative likely to remain price-relevant over the month.
- Semiconductors (SMH): 25% - Semiconductor sales growth and AI compute demand provide near-term fundamental support, while the group has sustained strong momentum versus broad equities.
- Cybersecurity (CIBR): 20% - Cybersecurity has the strongest 30-day trailing return among liquid thematic tech options and is supported by forecast growth in AI-related security spending.
- South Korea Equities (EWY): 15% - Exceptional short- and medium-term momentum with semiconductor/export sensitivity offers high beta to the prevailing AI and electronics risk-on trend.
- Solar Energy (TAN): 10% - Very strong recent momentum and clean-energy sentiment can continue over a one-month window, with EIA solar generation forecasts providing a supportive narrative.
Key Risks
- A hotter-than-expected June CPI/PPI or hawkish FOMC communication could lift yields and trigger a sharp growth-stock de-rating.
- Recent extreme gains in solar, South Korea, semiconductors, and cybersecurity could reverse through profit-taking or factor rotation into value/defensives.
- Any disappointment in AI capex expectations, semiconductor demand, or large-cap tech guidance could disproportionately hurt the portfolio.
- Geopolitical or trade tensions in East Asia could pressure South Korea and semiconductor supply-chain exposures.
- A broader risk-off move from weak labor or consumer data could cause high-beta thematic ETFs to underperform the S&P 500.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hotter-than-expected June CPI/PPI or hawkish FOMC communication could lift yields and trigger a sharp growth-stock de-rating.",
"Recent extreme gains in solar, South Korea, semiconductors, and cybersecurity could reverse through profit-taking or factor rotation into value/defensives.",
"Any disappointment in AI capex expectations, semiconductor demand, or large-cap tech guidance could disproportionately hurt the portfolio.",
"Geopolitical or trade tensions in East Asia could pressure South Korea and semiconductor supply-chain exposures.",
"A broader risk-off move from weak labor or consumer data could cause high-beta thematic ETFs to underperform the S&P 500."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative momentum with direct support from large AI spending forecasts and ongoing AI infrastructure capex narrative likely to remain price-relevant over the month."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Semiconductor sales growth and AI compute demand provide near-term fundamental support, while the group has sustained strong momentum versus broad equities."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Cybersecurity has the strongest 30-day trailing return among liquid thematic tech options and is supported by forecast growth in AI-related security spending."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "Exceptional short- and medium-term momentum with semiconductor/export sensitivity offers high beta to the prevailing AI and electronics risk-on trend."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"rationale": "Very strong recent momentum and clean-energy sentiment can continue over a one-month window, with EIA solar generation forecasts providing a supportive narrative."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is intentionally concentrated in high-momentum AI, semiconductor, cybersecurity, and related risk-on exposures because the scoring horizon is only one month and recent trend leadership is pronounced. It avoids low-beta bonds and defensive sectors because tight credit spreads, low volatility, and still-positive growth data favor continued equity risk appetite despite inflation uncertainty.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "A concentrated momentum and AI-linked allocation offers the best chance to outperform the S&P 500 over the June window. The main premise is trend persistence in technology and selected high-beta international/thematic exposures before the June 29 exit.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18789,
"latency_seconds": 16.030623970960733,
"output_tokens": 676,
"reasoning_tokens": 148,
"total_tokens": 19465
}
} xAI
Grok 4.3
xai-grok-4-3
5 holdings Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
QQQ 30% XLK 25% SMH 20% AIQ 15% MTUM 10%
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Concentrated allocation to tech, AI, and momentum exposures to capitalize on observed semiconductor strength, AI capex forecasts, and trailing performance while the scoring window precedes major June data releases.
Tech and AI-themed holdings positioned for continued catalyst-driven gains from spending forecasts and sales data amid modest macro backdrop and upcoming FOMC meeting.
Portfolio
- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): 30% - Heavy exposure to growth-oriented large caps with strong recent momentum and AI spending tailwinds likely to persist into June.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 25% - Sector-level tech allocation benefits from semiconductor sales growth and software price trends observed in recent data.
- Semiconductors (SMH): 20% - Direct play on Q1 chip sales surge and continued AI infrastructure demand before next FOMC and inflation prints.
- Broad AI Technology (AIQ): 15% - Captures broad AI ecosystem exposure aligned with Gartner and IEA forecasts for 2026 spending increases.
- US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 10% - Factor tilt to capture continuation of recent price trends in high-performing names through the one-month window.
Key Risks
- May CPI and employment releases could reveal persistent inflation or labor softening that pressures growth stocks
- June 16-17 FOMC outcome may shift rate expectations and trigger rotation out of high-valuation tech
- Low consumer sentiment readings may weigh on discretionary spending and broader risk appetite before exit date
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"May CPI and employment releases could reveal persistent inflation or labor softening that pressures growth stocks",
"June 16-17 FOMC outcome may shift rate expectations and trigger rotation out of high-valuation tech",
"Low consumer sentiment readings may weigh on discretionary spending and broader risk appetite before exit date"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"rationale": "Heavy exposure to growth-oriented large caps with strong recent momentum and AI spending tailwinds likely to persist into June."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Sector-level tech allocation benefits from semiconductor sales growth and software price trends observed in recent data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Direct play on Q1 chip sales surge and continued AI infrastructure demand before next FOMC and inflation prints."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"rationale": "Captures broad AI ecosystem exposure aligned with Gartner and IEA forecasts for 2026 spending increases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"rationale": "Factor tilt to capture continuation of recent price trends in high-performing names through the one-month window."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrated allocation to tech, AI, and momentum exposures to capitalize on observed semiconductor strength, AI capex forecasts, and trailing performance while the scoring window precedes major June data releases.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Tech and AI-themed holdings positioned for continued catalyst-driven gains from spending forecasts and sales data amid modest macro backdrop and upcoming FOMC meeting.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18683,
"latency_seconds": 12.39625219203299,
"output_tokens": 461,
"reasoning_tokens": 559,
"total_tokens": 19703
}
} Public model run
Model Portfolios
This test used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | SMH25%AIQ20%IAU20%ITA15%CIBR20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | SMH30%XLK25%EWT15%ITA15%IAU15% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | SMH30%EWY30%TAN20%XLK20% | 0.75 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | AIQ30%SMH25%CIBR20%EWY15%TAN10% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | QQQ30%XLK25%SMH20%AIQ15%MTUM10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round |
Pricing
Starting Prices
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the test is complete.
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | 2026-05-29 | 235.44 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | 2026-05-29 | 99.06 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | 2026-05-29 | 27.25 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | 2026-05-29 | 29.25 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | 2026-05-29 | 142.87 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| BIOTECH | XBI | 2026-05-29 | 136.69 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | 2026-05-29 | 41.63 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | 2026-05-29 | 35.91 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | 2026-05-29 | 67.32 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | 2026-05-29 | 17.62 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| CANADA | EWC | 2026-05-29 | 58.81 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| CASH | 2026-05-29 | 1 | cash | |
| CHINA | MCHI | 2026-05-29 | 55.1 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | 2026-05-29 | 115.69 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | 2026-05-29 | 120.87 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | 2026-05-29 | 82.91 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| COPPER | CPER | 2026-05-29 | 38.86 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | 2026-05-29 | 89.04 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | 2026-05-29 | 71.77 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | 2026-05-29 | 32.5 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | 2026-05-29 | 96.43 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | 2026-05-29 | 59.88 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| ENERGY | XLE | 2026-05-29 | 56.29 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | 2026-05-29 | 208.83 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | 2026-05-29 | 15.2 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| EURO | FXE | 2026-05-29 | 107.7 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| EUROPE | VGK | 2026-05-29 | 89.01 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | 2026-05-29 | 51.58 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| GOLD | IAU | 2026-05-29 | 85.49 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | 2026-05-29 | 149.47 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | 2026-05-29 | 80.31 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| INDIA | INDA | 2026-05-29 | 48.56 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | 2026-05-29 | 173.13 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | 2026-05-29 | 94.65 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | 2026-05-29 | 48.33 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | 2026-05-29 | 109.36 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| JAPAN | EWJ | 2026-05-29 | 92.96 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | 2026-05-29 | 127.85 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | 2026-05-29 | 237.96 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | 2026-05-29 | 85.76 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | 2026-05-29 | 72.21 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| MATERIALS | XLB | 2026-05-29 | 51.15 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| METALS_MINING | XME | 2026-05-29 | 125.21 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| MEXICO | EWW | 2026-05-29 | 78.43 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| MID_CAP | IJH | 2026-05-29 | 74.6 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | 2026-05-29 | 315.81 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | 2026-05-29 | 94.79 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | 2026-05-29 | 107.17 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | 2026-05-29 | 738.31 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| OIL | USO | 2026-05-29 | 129.09 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | 2026-05-29 | 43.99 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | 2026-05-29 | 69.61 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | 2026-05-29 | 598.93 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | 2026-05-29 | 91.66 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SILVER | SLV | 2026-05-29 | 68.33 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | 2026-05-29 | 290.43 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | 2026-05-29 | 213.87 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | 2026-05-29 | 101.66 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SOLAR | TAN | 2026-05-29 | 73.93 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | 2026-05-29 | 69.41 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | 2026-05-29 | 205.83 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| SP500 | SPY | 2026-05-29 | 756.48 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| TAIWAN | EWT | 2026-05-29 | 102.78 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | 2026-05-29 | 191.02 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| TIPS | TIP | 2026-05-29 | 111.21 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | 2026-05-29 | 372.54 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | 2026-05-29 | 46.93 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | 2026-05-29 | 27.66 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| UTILITIES | XLU | 2026-05-29 | 44.42 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
| YEN | FXY | 2026-05-29 | 57.62 | tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns |
Proof
Published Hashes
Test inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | cf2b028a0b74...347f7b37 |
| manifest.yaml | f5710ea5d014...df3e8556 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv | 73f5cd6e3b06...350b53c9 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json | d8aa9b6c5a71...0a82eb86 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md | f02895ae6e08...ddca9f59 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 80236dfcf0be...42dbdb3c |