Round audit packet

CB-2026-07-13-1M

Monthly round one month

One-month market allocation evaluation round.

Test CB-2026-07-13-1M pending
Portfolios Frozen By 2026-07-14
Start Date 2026-07-13
End Date 2026-08-13
Run ID official-20260713
  1. 1 Inputs saved

    7 public audit hashes are available.

  2. 2 Portfolios collected

    8 valid model portfolios.

  3. 3 Start priced

    70 starting-price rows published.

  4. 4 Ending prices pending

    Scores publish after 2026-08-13 prices are available.

Round state

Score Pending

This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.

Pending
Model portfolios

8 valid portfolios

No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.

Asset list

70 saved choices

v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.

Scoring

Ending prices pending

Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.

Input audit hashes

7 artifacts published.

Public run selected

official-20260713

Model-facing prompt available

42,931 shared prompt characters.

Ending prices pending

Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.

Model consensus

Where Models Concentrated In This Round

Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.

Score pending
Top exposure 32.5%

Energy Sector (XLE)

Top 3 exposures 62.5%

Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.

Effective spread 5.7 assets

Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.

Average allocation across 8 model portfolios Assets
Energy Sector (XLE) 8 models: Grok 4.3 50% / GPT-5.6 Sol 35% / Grok 4.5 35% / Claude Fable 5 30% / +4 more
32.5%
Crude Oil (USO) 5 models: GPT-5.5 45% / Gemini 3.1 Pro 30% / GPT-5.6 Sol 25% / Grok 4.5 25% / +1 more
16.9%
Financials Sector (XLF) 5 models: Grok 4.3 30% / Claude Opus 4.7 20% / Claude Opus 4.8 20% / Grok 4.5 20% / +1 more
13.1%
Healthcare Sector (XLV) 5 models: Claude Opus 4.7 20% / Claude Opus 4.8 20% / Grok 4.3 20% / GPT-5.6 Sol 15% / +1 more
11.3%
US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) 3 models: Claude Fable 5 20% / Claude Opus 4.8 20% / Claude Opus 4.7 15%
6.9%
Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) 3 models: Claude Fable 5 15% / Claude Opus 4.7 15% / Claude Opus 4.8 15%
5.6%
US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 2 models: Claude Fable 5 25% / Grok 4.5 5%
3.8%
Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 2 models: Gemini 3.1 Pro 20% / GPT-5.5 5%
3.1%
Interim tracking

Live Portfolio And S&P 500 Returns

Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.

Live chart pending

At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.

Saved model-facing context

Prompt And Input Packet

The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.

Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 42,931 characters
# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.

The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.

Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-month scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.

Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-month realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.

Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-month round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.

## Round Metadata

- Round ID: CB-2026-07-13-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-13
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-13T20:55:45Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-14T07:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-13
- Exit date: 2026-08-13
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.

## Briefing

# CapitalBench Briefing - CB-2026-07-13-1M

Research cutoff: 2026-07-13T20:55:45Z

Round window: July 13, 2026 close to August 13, 2026 close.

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.

## July 13 Market Close

- Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 7,515.34, the Dow fell 0.3% to 52,498.64, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6% to 25,873.18, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.8% to 2,953.17.
- Year to date through July 13, the S&P 500 was up 9.8%, the Dow was up 9.2%, the Nasdaq was up 11.3%, and the Russell 2000 was up 19.0%.
- Associated Press reported Micron Technology fell 4.4%, Nvidia fell 3.5%, and SK Hynix's U.S.-traded receipts fell 9.3%. TSMC shares rose 1.0% in Taiwan and fell 2.9% in U.S. trading.
- Associated Press reported South Korea's Kospi fell 8.9%, Shanghai fell 2.1%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.9%.

## Rates, Energy, And Inflation

- Associated Press reported Brent crude rose 9.6% to $83.30 a barrel and remained below its wartime peak near $120.
- Associated Press reported the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.61% from 4.56% late July 10 and from 3.97% before the war with Iran began.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported May CPI rose 0.5% month over month and 4.2% over 12 months. Core CPI rose 0.2% in May and 2.9% over 12 months.
- Reuters reported that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said July 13 there was a credible case for inflation to move toward 2% at the current policy setting and an alternative case in which persistent or rising inflation could require tighter policy in the near term.

## Labor And Corporate Facts

- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June payroll growth of 57,000, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, a labor-force participation rate of 61.5%, and 3.5% year-over-year average hourly earnings growth.
- April and May payroll growth were revised down by a combined 74,000. June employment rose in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care, while leisure and hospitality employment fell by 61,000.
- TSMC reported unaudited June revenue of NT$442.680 billion, up 67.9% from a year earlier, and first-half revenue of NT$2,404.484 billion, up 35.6%.
- TSMC's published Q2 guidance lists net revenue of US$39.0 billion to US$40.2 billion, gross margin of 65.5% to 67.5%, and operating margin of 56.5% to 58.5%.
- Tesla reported Q2 production of 451,758 vehicles, deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, and energy-storage deployments of 13.5 GWh. Tesla said these measures should not be relied on as indicators of quarterly financial results.

## Strait Of Hormuz Status

- Associated Press reported that the United States and Iran each asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz on July 13 after renewed exchanges of fire.
- President Donald Trump announced that the United States would reinstate a blockade on Iranian shipping and seek payments equal to 20% of cargo value from other ships for U.S.-provided passage protection.
- The U.S. military said the blockade of Iranian ports would resume July 14 at 4:00 p.m. Eastern. Iran opposed U.S. interference, and the International Maritime Organization said it remained opposed to mandatory transit tolls in international waterways.
- Control, transit volumes, duration, legal status, and energy-price effects were unresolved at the research cutoff.

## Scheduled Events Through August 13

- July 14-17: scheduled releases and events include major-bank Q2 results, June CPI, Chairman Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, June retail sales, TSMC Q2 results, housing starts, and industrial production.
- July 22: Tesla Q2 financial results are scheduled after market close, followed by a 5:30 p.m. Eastern webcast.
- July 24-27: June new-home sales and durable-goods orders are scheduled.
- July 28-29: the FOMC is scheduled to meet, with the policy decision at 2:00 p.m. and press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern on July 29.
- July 30: BEA is scheduled to release Q2 advance GDP and June personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
- August 3-7: scheduled releases include construction spending, June trade, JOLTS, factory orders, preliminary Q2 productivity, wholesale trade, and the July Employment Situation.
- August 12: July CPI and real earnings are scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
- August 13: July PPI is scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

## Factual Uncertainties

- The June CPI, scheduled earnings, FOMC decision, Q2 GDP, July employment, July CPI, July PPI, and other scheduled releases were not known at the cutoff.
- Waller's policy remarks were conditional on incoming data and represented one policymaker's view rather than an FOMC decision.
- Strait of Hormuz operating conditions and the announced blockade remained subject to rapid change.
- TSMC labels its monthly revenue figures unaudited. Tesla cautioned that production and delivery figures alone do not determine quarterly financial performance. Payroll estimates remain subject to revision.

This briefing is a fixed information snapshot as of the research cutoff. It does not recommend, rank, interpret, or map these facts to allowed options. Price history in the complete mechanical appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast.

## Full-Universe Trailing Returns

# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context

This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.

Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.

- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-13
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-07-13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -1.26% | 0.00% | 0.00% |  |  | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-13 | 0.08% | 0.28% | 1.76% | 3.82% | -0.98% | 0.27% | -0.01% | 72.22% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-13 | -0.28% | 1.26% | 8.56% | 21.46% | 0.00% | 13.15% | -3.17% | 38.89% | -1.12% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-13 | -0.51% | 1.22% | 8.67% | 21.85% | -0.04% | 12.39% | -2.49% | 38.89% | -0.94% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -1.53% | -1.22% | 13.92% | 29.05% | -2.48% | 27.24% | -4.93% | 44.44% | -4.51% | 1.38 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-13 | -1.15% | 0.07% | 2.40% | 14.17% | -1.19% | 21.97% | -5.03% | 44.44% | -5.49% | 1.25 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-13 | 0.15% | 2.59% | 14.63% | 28.21% | 1.33% | 11.46% | -1.39% | 61.11% | -0.05% | 0.73 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-13 | -1.54% | -0.81% | 9.00% | 20.15% | -2.07% | 13.13% | -3.09% | 44.44% | -2.43% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-13 | -1.81% | 0.42% | 12.76% | 33.75% | -0.84% | 13.86% | -2.32% | 44.44% | -2.32% | 1.26 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-13 | -0.88% | 1.03% | 15.28% | 35.48% | -0.23% | 10.74% | -1.83% | 50.00% | -0.88% | 1.03 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-13 | 0.99% | -0.00% | 15.64% | 23.51% | -1.26% | 12.30% | -2.36% | 50.00% | -0.03% | 0.29 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-13 | 0.32% | 2.80% | 7.13% | 7.63% | 1.54% | 15.09% | -1.89% | 61.11% | -0.66% | 0.05 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.20% | -2.90% | 21.76% | 34.12% | -4.17% | 43.99% | -9.50% | 55.56% | -8.86% | 1.51 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -1.25% | -1.79% | 24.06% | 42.45% | -3.05% | 35.60% | -6.75% | 50.00% | -8.43% | 1.68 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 1.25% | 0.21% | -3.98% | 6.59% | -1.05% | 20.29% | -5.76% | 55.56% | -6.53% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -1.67% | -0.28% | -6.20% | 5.62% | -1.54% | 21.25% | -4.21% | 50.00% | -6.44% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 0.58% | -0.75% | 5.61% | 7.58% | -2.01% | 18.68% | -3.32% | 50.00% | -4.84% | -0.04 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -0.34% | 5.40% | 3.86% | 21.48% | 4.14% | 21.30% | -2.31% | 61.11% | -1.84% | 0.35 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -0.12% | 5.49% | 4.29% | 9.16% | 4.23% | 15.48% | -2.08% | 61.11% | -0.12% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -2.80% | 2.63% | 10.56% | 21.63% | 1.37% | 18.73% | -2.80% | 61.11% | -2.80% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 6.79% | -0.70% | 22.39% | 31.29% | -1.96% | 22.53% | -4.25% | 44.44% | -8.65% | -0.19 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -2.69% | -2.70% | 4.65% | 12.55% | -3.96% | 18.44% | -4.50% | 50.00% | -4.90% | 0.77 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 0.93% | 3.33% | 8.13% | 14.00% | 2.07% | 16.14% | -3.10% | 61.11% | -2.93% | 0.16 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 0.93% | -0.60% | 10.89% | 11.21% | -1.86% | 18.81% | -2.75% | 61.11% | -1.19% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.94% | -0.62% | -1.23% | 2.77% | -1.88% | 5.34% | -1.54% | 55.56% | -3.25% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -1.73% | -1.74% | -2.22% | 2.34% | -3.00% | 9.64% | -3.62% | 44.44% | -5.81% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.53% | -0.59% | 0.46% | 3.09% | -1.85% | 4.46% | -0.85% | 50.00% | -1.05% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-13 | -1.57% | -1.54% | -1.23% | 3.51% | -2.80% | 4.93% | -2.15% | 50.00% | -2.45% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-13 | -0.44% | -0.06% | 1.07% | 5.36% | -1.32% | 2.74% | -0.44% | 33.33% | -0.44% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.96% | -0.73% | -0.53% | 3.67% | -1.99% | 4.09% | -1.34% | 55.56% | -2.03% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.96% | -1.99% | 8.81% | 26.21% | -3.25% | 18.59% | -3.63% | 55.56% | -3.63% | 1.08 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.13% | -1.16% | 5.18% | 21.65% | -2.42% | 20.56% | -4.34% | 44.44% | -4.00% | 1.08 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.35% | -0.63% | 4.29% | 16.41% | -1.89% | 13.73% | -2.35% | 50.00% | -2.35% | 0.93 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.68% | 0.55% | 10.39% | 33.65% | -0.71% | 24.82% | -4.57% | 61.11% | -4.38% | 1.16 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | 0.98% | -3.56% | -16.75% | -2.59% | -4.82% | 19.64% | -8.10% | 38.89% | -20.10% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.19% | 0.95% | -8.01% | -11.10% | -0.31% | 14.14% | -2.54% | 55.56% | -11.76% | 0.62 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-13 | -3.90% | -4.98% | -12.86% | 18.88% | -6.24% | 22.75% | -7.99% | 38.89% | -25.91% | 0.66 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-13 | 4.97% | -0.94% | 21.93% | 30.72% | -2.20% | 22.60% | -6.57% | 44.44% | -10.63% | -0.18 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -3.09% | -5.54% | 49.57% | 104.33% | -6.80% | 60.92% | -13.07% | 55.56% | -12.45% | 2.28 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -2.20% | 2.22% | -10.29% | -13.74% | 0.96% | 28.90% | -8.55% | 50.00% | -21.29% | 1.17 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -3.98% | -4.22% | 16.45% | 41.76% | -5.48% | 41.15% | -8.63% | 50.00% | -12.60% | 1.86 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -7.23% | -6.73% | -7.64% | 31.73% | -7.99% | 33.38% | -10.39% | 27.78% | -16.08% | 2.16 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -1.15% | 7.72% | 26.80% | 27.22% | 6.46% | 26.22% | -3.12% | 44.44% | -2.57% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-13 | -7.68% | -15.72% | 1.78% | 39.42% | -16.98% | 39.98% | -15.28% | 38.89% | -28.15% | 1.76 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-13 | -3.76% | -15.18% | -14.64% | 40.11% | -16.44% | 25.32% | -15.44% | 33.33% | -23.09% | 1.69 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-13 | -0.36% | 1.61% | 9.20% | 18.09% | 0.35% | 11.09% | -1.83% | 55.56% | -0.36% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-13 | -3.40% | 16.22% | 25.55% | 79.33% | 14.96% | 29.19% | -5.44% | 66.67% | -5.44% | 1.02 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-13 | -0.58% | 2.93% | 14.73% | 22.35% | 1.67% | 19.14% | -3.73% | 72.22% | -1.39% | 0.83 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-13 | -6.27% | 0.61% | -0.91% | 24.48% | -0.65% | 20.37% | -6.27% | 55.56% | -6.27% | 1.02 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | 1.15% | 0.42% | 7.05% | 29.05% | -0.84% | 9.36% | -3.08% | 66.67% | -0.76% | 0.77 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -1.82% | -0.29% | 4.54% | 20.07% | -1.55% | 14.77% | -2.28% | 38.89% | -3.40% | 0.72 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | 0.07% | -1.61% | 8.85% | 10.93% | -2.87% | 13.82% | -4.42% | 50.00% | -5.00% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -11.50% | -14.91% | 56.24% | 136.83% | -16.17% | 78.85% | -23.35% | 44.44% | -23.35% | 2.65 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -5.02% | -0.72% | 54.13% | 82.78% | -1.98% | 46.05% | -8.65% | 55.56% | -8.65% | 1.71 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | 1.35% | 1.79% | 9.49% | 34.32% | 0.53% | 19.55% | -2.63% | 38.89% | -14.39% | 1.01 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.98% | -4.11% | 4.55% | 27.53% | -5.38% | 18.02% | -5.37% | 38.89% | -7.37% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.89% | -4.09% | -12.25% | 27.68% | -5.35% | 23.32% | -8.61% | 44.44% | -21.40% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -1.08% | -0.83% | -0.47% | 4.79% | -2.09% | 4.66% | -1.45% | 55.56% | -2.06% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.62% | 0.13% | 0.96% | 6.17% | -1.13% | 2.55% | -0.62% | 55.56% | -0.62% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-13 | -1.01% | -0.60% | 1.80% | 9.38% | -1.87% | 4.74% | -1.08% | 38.89% | -1.08% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.68% | -0.54% | 0.02% | 1.94% | -1.80% | 3.57% | -1.20% | 44.44% | -1.55% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-13 | -7.04% | -14.90% | -33.64% | 48.90% | -16.16% | 45.10% | -18.42% | 38.89% | -50.61% | 1.69 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-13 | 0.26% | -4.07% | 2.85% | 9.94% | -5.33% | 25.25% | -8.42% | 44.44% | -6.55% | 1.23 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-13 | 0.65% | 5.64% | 8.41% | 11.45% | 4.38% | 14.58% | -1.52% | 61.11% | -3.52% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-13 | 12.88% | -6.09% | 60.30% | 52.40% | -7.35% | 52.76% | -14.80% | 44.44% | -22.99% | -1.03 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-13 | 0.64% | 1.97% | 4.20% | 8.28% | 0.71% | 5.18% | -0.74% | 55.56% | -0.11% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-13 | -0.53% | -1.64% | -1.93% | -1.92% | -2.90% | 5.46% | -2.19% | 38.89% | -5.12% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-13 | -0.23% | -1.40% | -2.25% | -9.61% | -2.66% | 5.60% | -1.42% | 33.33% | -10.17% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-13 | -2.49% | -2.28% | -34.25% | -47.60% | -3.54% | 37.39% | -11.79% | 50.00% | -50.60% | 1.81 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-13 | -1.33% | 6.36% | -44.80% | -41.36% | 5.10% | 48.99% | -14.68% | 44.44% | -63.46% | 2.95 | pass |

## Options

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.

Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.

Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Base Instructions prompt.md
# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.

The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.

Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-month scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.

Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-month realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.

Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-month round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
Round Manifest manifest.yaml
round_id: CB-2026-07-13-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-13-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-13'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-14T07:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
  min_holdings: 1
  max_holdings: 5
  allocation_increment_pct: 5
  min_allocation_pct: 5
  max_total_allocation_pct: 100
  allow_cash: true
  allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-13'
exit_date: '2026-08-13'
created_at: '2026-07-13T20:55:45.137233+00:00'
notes: 'Post-close July 13, 2026 one-month portfolio round. The one-month exit snapshot uses the August 13, 2026 close.'
Briefing briefing.md
# CapitalBench Briefing - CB-2026-07-13-1M

Research cutoff: 2026-07-13T20:55:45Z

Round window: July 13, 2026 close to August 13, 2026 close.

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.

## July 13 Market Close

- Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 7,515.34, the Dow fell 0.3% to 52,498.64, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.6% to 25,873.18, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.8% to 2,953.17.
- Year to date through July 13, the S&P 500 was up 9.8%, the Dow was up 9.2%, the Nasdaq was up 11.3%, and the Russell 2000 was up 19.0%.
- Associated Press reported Micron Technology fell 4.4%, Nvidia fell 3.5%, and SK Hynix's U.S.-traded receipts fell 9.3%. TSMC shares rose 1.0% in Taiwan and fell 2.9% in U.S. trading.
- Associated Press reported South Korea's Kospi fell 8.9%, Shanghai fell 2.1%, and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.9%.

## Rates, Energy, And Inflation

- Associated Press reported Brent crude rose 9.6% to $83.30 a barrel and remained below its wartime peak near $120.
- Associated Press reported the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.61% from 4.56% late July 10 and from 3.97% before the war with Iran began.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported May CPI rose 0.5% month over month and 4.2% over 12 months. Core CPI rose 0.2% in May and 2.9% over 12 months.
- Reuters reported that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said July 13 there was a credible case for inflation to move toward 2% at the current policy setting and an alternative case in which persistent or rising inflation could require tighter policy in the near term.

## Labor And Corporate Facts

- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June payroll growth of 57,000, an unemployment rate of 4.2%, a labor-force participation rate of 61.5%, and 3.5% year-over-year average hourly earnings growth.
- April and May payroll growth were revised down by a combined 74,000. June employment rose in professional and business services, social assistance, and health care, while leisure and hospitality employment fell by 61,000.
- TSMC reported unaudited June revenue of NT$442.680 billion, up 67.9% from a year earlier, and first-half revenue of NT$2,404.484 billion, up 35.6%.
- TSMC's published Q2 guidance lists net revenue of US$39.0 billion to US$40.2 billion, gross margin of 65.5% to 67.5%, and operating margin of 56.5% to 58.5%.
- Tesla reported Q2 production of 451,758 vehicles, deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, and energy-storage deployments of 13.5 GWh. Tesla said these measures should not be relied on as indicators of quarterly financial results.

## Strait Of Hormuz Status

- Associated Press reported that the United States and Iran each asserted control over the Strait of Hormuz on July 13 after renewed exchanges of fire.
- President Donald Trump announced that the United States would reinstate a blockade on Iranian shipping and seek payments equal to 20% of cargo value from other ships for U.S.-provided passage protection.
- The U.S. military said the blockade of Iranian ports would resume July 14 at 4:00 p.m. Eastern. Iran opposed U.S. interference, and the International Maritime Organization said it remained opposed to mandatory transit tolls in international waterways.
- Control, transit volumes, duration, legal status, and energy-price effects were unresolved at the research cutoff.

## Scheduled Events Through August 13

- July 14-17: scheduled releases and events include major-bank Q2 results, June CPI, Chairman Kevin Warsh's congressional testimony, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, June retail sales, TSMC Q2 results, housing starts, and industrial production.
- July 22: Tesla Q2 financial results are scheduled after market close, followed by a 5:30 p.m. Eastern webcast.
- July 24-27: June new-home sales and durable-goods orders are scheduled.
- July 28-29: the FOMC is scheduled to meet, with the policy decision at 2:00 p.m. and press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern on July 29.
- July 30: BEA is scheduled to release Q2 advance GDP and June personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
- August 3-7: scheduled releases include construction spending, June trade, JOLTS, factory orders, preliminary Q2 productivity, wholesale trade, and the July Employment Situation.
- August 12: July CPI and real earnings are scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.
- August 13: July PPI is scheduled at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

## Factual Uncertainties

- The June CPI, scheduled earnings, FOMC decision, Q2 GDP, July employment, July CPI, July PPI, and other scheduled releases were not known at the cutoff.
- Waller's policy remarks were conditional on incoming data and represented one policymaker's view rather than an FOMC decision.
- Strait of Hormuz operating conditions and the announced blockade remained subject to rapid change.
- TSMC labels its monthly revenue figures unaudited. Tesla cautioned that production and delivery figures alone do not determine quarterly financial performance. Payroll estimates remain subject to revision.

This briefing is a fixed information snapshot as of the research cutoff. It does not recommend, rank, interpret, or map these facts to allowed options. Price history in the complete mechanical appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast.
Full-Universe Trailing Returns market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md
# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context

This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.

Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.

- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-13
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-07-13 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -1.26% | 0.00% | 0.00% |  |  | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-13 | 0.08% | 0.28% | 1.76% | 3.82% | -0.98% | 0.27% | -0.01% | 72.22% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-13 | -0.28% | 1.26% | 8.56% | 21.46% | 0.00% | 13.15% | -3.17% | 38.89% | -1.12% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-13 | -0.51% | 1.22% | 8.67% | 21.85% | -0.04% | 12.39% | -2.49% | 38.89% | -0.94% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -1.53% | -1.22% | 13.92% | 29.05% | -2.48% | 27.24% | -4.93% | 44.44% | -4.51% | 1.38 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-13 | -1.15% | 0.07% | 2.40% | 14.17% | -1.19% | 21.97% | -5.03% | 44.44% | -5.49% | 1.25 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-13 | 0.15% | 2.59% | 14.63% | 28.21% | 1.33% | 11.46% | -1.39% | 61.11% | -0.05% | 0.73 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-13 | -1.54% | -0.81% | 9.00% | 20.15% | -2.07% | 13.13% | -3.09% | 44.44% | -2.43% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-13 | -1.81% | 0.42% | 12.76% | 33.75% | -0.84% | 13.86% | -2.32% | 44.44% | -2.32% | 1.26 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-13 | -0.88% | 1.03% | 15.28% | 35.48% | -0.23% | 10.74% | -1.83% | 50.00% | -0.88% | 1.03 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-13 | 0.99% | -0.00% | 15.64% | 23.51% | -1.26% | 12.30% | -2.36% | 50.00% | -0.03% | 0.29 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-13 | 0.32% | 2.80% | 7.13% | 7.63% | 1.54% | 15.09% | -1.89% | 61.11% | -0.66% | 0.05 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.20% | -2.90% | 21.76% | 34.12% | -4.17% | 43.99% | -9.50% | 55.56% | -8.86% | 1.51 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -1.25% | -1.79% | 24.06% | 42.45% | -3.05% | 35.60% | -6.75% | 50.00% | -8.43% | 1.68 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 1.25% | 0.21% | -3.98% | 6.59% | -1.05% | 20.29% | -5.76% | 55.56% | -6.53% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -1.67% | -0.28% | -6.20% | 5.62% | -1.54% | 21.25% | -4.21% | 50.00% | -6.44% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 0.58% | -0.75% | 5.61% | 7.58% | -2.01% | 18.68% | -3.32% | 50.00% | -4.84% | -0.04 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -0.34% | 5.40% | 3.86% | 21.48% | 4.14% | 21.30% | -2.31% | 61.11% | -1.84% | 0.35 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -0.12% | 5.49% | 4.29% | 9.16% | 4.23% | 15.48% | -2.08% | 61.11% | -0.12% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -2.80% | 2.63% | 10.56% | 21.63% | 1.37% | 18.73% | -2.80% | 61.11% | -2.80% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 6.79% | -0.70% | 22.39% | 31.29% | -1.96% | 22.53% | -4.25% | 44.44% | -8.65% | -0.19 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | -2.69% | -2.70% | 4.65% | 12.55% | -3.96% | 18.44% | -4.50% | 50.00% | -4.90% | 0.77 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 0.93% | 3.33% | 8.13% | 14.00% | 2.07% | 16.14% | -3.10% | 61.11% | -2.93% | 0.16 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-13 | 0.93% | -0.60% | 10.89% | 11.21% | -1.86% | 18.81% | -2.75% | 61.11% | -1.19% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.94% | -0.62% | -1.23% | 2.77% | -1.88% | 5.34% | -1.54% | 55.56% | -3.25% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -1.73% | -1.74% | -2.22% | 2.34% | -3.00% | 9.64% | -3.62% | 44.44% | -5.81% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.53% | -0.59% | 0.46% | 3.09% | -1.85% | 4.46% | -0.85% | 50.00% | -1.05% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-13 | -1.57% | -1.54% | -1.23% | 3.51% | -2.80% | 4.93% | -2.15% | 50.00% | -2.45% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-13 | -0.44% | -0.06% | 1.07% | 5.36% | -1.32% | 2.74% | -0.44% | 33.33% | -0.44% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.96% | -0.73% | -0.53% | 3.67% | -1.99% | 4.09% | -1.34% | 55.56% | -2.03% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.96% | -1.99% | 8.81% | 26.21% | -3.25% | 18.59% | -3.63% | 55.56% | -3.63% | 1.08 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.13% | -1.16% | 5.18% | 21.65% | -2.42% | 20.56% | -4.34% | 44.44% | -4.00% | 1.08 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.35% | -0.63% | 4.29% | 16.41% | -1.89% | 13.73% | -2.35% | 50.00% | -2.35% | 0.93 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.68% | 0.55% | 10.39% | 33.65% | -0.71% | 24.82% | -4.57% | 61.11% | -4.38% | 1.16 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | 0.98% | -3.56% | -16.75% | -2.59% | -4.82% | 19.64% | -8.10% | 38.89% | -20.10% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.19% | 0.95% | -8.01% | -11.10% | -0.31% | 14.14% | -2.54% | 55.56% | -11.76% | 0.62 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-13 | -3.90% | -4.98% | -12.86% | 18.88% | -6.24% | 22.75% | -7.99% | 38.89% | -25.91% | 0.66 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-13 | 4.97% | -0.94% | 21.93% | 30.72% | -2.20% | 22.60% | -6.57% | 44.44% | -10.63% | -0.18 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -3.09% | -5.54% | 49.57% | 104.33% | -6.80% | 60.92% | -13.07% | 55.56% | -12.45% | 2.28 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -2.20% | 2.22% | -10.29% | -13.74% | 0.96% | 28.90% | -8.55% | 50.00% | -21.29% | 1.17 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -3.98% | -4.22% | 16.45% | 41.76% | -5.48% | 41.15% | -8.63% | 50.00% | -12.60% | 1.86 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -7.23% | -6.73% | -7.64% | 31.73% | -7.99% | 33.38% | -10.39% | 27.78% | -16.08% | 2.16 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-13 | -1.15% | 7.72% | 26.80% | 27.22% | 6.46% | 26.22% | -3.12% | 44.44% | -2.57% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-13 | -7.68% | -15.72% | 1.78% | 39.42% | -16.98% | 39.98% | -15.28% | 38.89% | -28.15% | 1.76 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-13 | -3.76% | -15.18% | -14.64% | 40.11% | -16.44% | 25.32% | -15.44% | 33.33% | -23.09% | 1.69 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-13 | -0.36% | 1.61% | 9.20% | 18.09% | 0.35% | 11.09% | -1.83% | 55.56% | -0.36% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-13 | -3.40% | 16.22% | 25.55% | 79.33% | 14.96% | 29.19% | -5.44% | 66.67% | -5.44% | 1.02 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-13 | -0.58% | 2.93% | 14.73% | 22.35% | 1.67% | 19.14% | -3.73% | 72.22% | -1.39% | 0.83 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-13 | -6.27% | 0.61% | -0.91% | 24.48% | -0.65% | 20.37% | -6.27% | 55.56% | -6.27% | 1.02 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | 1.15% | 0.42% | 7.05% | 29.05% | -0.84% | 9.36% | -3.08% | 66.67% | -0.76% | 0.77 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -1.82% | -0.29% | 4.54% | 20.07% | -1.55% | 14.77% | -2.28% | 38.89% | -3.40% | 0.72 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | 0.07% | -1.61% | 8.85% | 10.93% | -2.87% | 13.82% | -4.42% | 50.00% | -5.00% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -11.50% | -14.91% | 56.24% | 136.83% | -16.17% | 78.85% | -23.35% | 44.44% | -23.35% | 2.65 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -5.02% | -0.72% | 54.13% | 82.78% | -1.98% | 46.05% | -8.65% | 55.56% | -8.65% | 1.71 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | 1.35% | 1.79% | 9.49% | 34.32% | 0.53% | 19.55% | -2.63% | 38.89% | -14.39% | 1.01 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.98% | -4.11% | 4.55% | 27.53% | -5.38% | 18.02% | -5.37% | 38.89% | -7.37% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-13 | -2.89% | -4.09% | -12.25% | 27.68% | -5.35% | 23.32% | -8.61% | 44.44% | -21.40% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -1.08% | -0.83% | -0.47% | 4.79% | -2.09% | 4.66% | -1.45% | 55.56% | -2.06% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.62% | 0.13% | 0.96% | 6.17% | -1.13% | 2.55% | -0.62% | 55.56% | -0.62% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-13 | -1.01% | -0.60% | 1.80% | 9.38% | -1.87% | 4.74% | -1.08% | 38.89% | -1.08% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-13 | -0.68% | -0.54% | 0.02% | 1.94% | -1.80% | 3.57% | -1.20% | 44.44% | -1.55% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-13 | -7.04% | -14.90% | -33.64% | 48.90% | -16.16% | 45.10% | -18.42% | 38.89% | -50.61% | 1.69 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-13 | 0.26% | -4.07% | 2.85% | 9.94% | -5.33% | 25.25% | -8.42% | 44.44% | -6.55% | 1.23 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-13 | 0.65% | 5.64% | 8.41% | 11.45% | 4.38% | 14.58% | -1.52% | 61.11% | -3.52% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-13 | 12.88% | -6.09% | 60.30% | 52.40% | -7.35% | 52.76% | -14.80% | 44.44% | -22.99% | -1.03 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-13 | 0.64% | 1.97% | 4.20% | 8.28% | 0.71% | 5.18% | -0.74% | 55.56% | -0.11% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-13 | -0.53% | -1.64% | -1.93% | -1.92% | -2.90% | 5.46% | -2.19% | 38.89% | -5.12% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-13 | -0.23% | -1.40% | -2.25% | -9.61% | -2.66% | 5.60% | -1.42% | 33.33% | -10.17% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-13 | -2.49% | -2.28% | -34.25% | -47.60% | -3.54% | 37.39% | -11.79% | 50.00% | -50.60% | 1.81 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-13 | -1.33% | 6.36% | -44.80% | -41.36% | 5.10% | 48.99% | -14.68% | 44.44% | -63.46% | 2.95 | pass |
Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.

Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.

Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Source Options YAML options.yaml
options:
  - id: CASH
    name: Cash / Do Not Invest
    symbol: null
    tiingo_symbol: null
    asset_class: cash
    category: cash
    option_group: cash
    risk_bucket: cash
    currency: USD
    is_cash: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."

  - id: SHORT_TREASURY
    name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
    symbol: BIL
    tiingo_symbol: BIL
    asset_class: cash_like
    category: treasury_bills
    option_group: cash_and_short_duration
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."

  - id: SP500
    name: S&P 500
    symbol: SPY
    tiingo_symbol: SPY
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    is_benchmark: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."

  - id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
    name: Total US Stock Market
    symbol: VTI
    tiingo_symbol: VTI
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."

  - id: NASDAQ100
    name: Nasdaq 100
    symbol: QQQ
    tiingo_symbol: QQQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: growth_equity
    option_group: us_growth_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."

  - id: LARGE_GROWTH
    name: US Large-Cap Growth
    symbol: IWF
    tiingo_symbol: IWF
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."

  - id: LARGE_VALUE
    name: US Large-Cap Value
    symbol: IWD
    tiingo_symbol: IWD
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."

  - id: MID_CAP
    name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IJH
    tiingo_symbol: IJH
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_CAP
    name: US Small-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IWM
    tiingo_symbol: IWM
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_VALUE
    name: US Small-Cap Value
    symbol: IWN
    tiingo_symbol: IWN
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_and_size_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."

  - id: DIVIDEND
    name: US Dividend Equities
    symbol: SCHD
    tiingo_symbol: SCHD
    asset_class: equity
    category: dividend_equity
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."

  - id: LOW_VOL
    name: US Low Volatility Equities
    symbol: SPLV
    tiingo_symbol: SPLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: low_volatility_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."

  - id: MOMENTUM
    name: US Momentum Equities
    symbol: MTUM
    tiingo_symbol: MTUM
    asset_class: equity
    category: momentum_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."

  - id: TECHNOLOGY
    name: Technology Sector
    symbol: XLK
    tiingo_symbol: XLK
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."

  - id: COMMUNICATIONS
    name: Communication Services Sector
    symbol: XLC
    tiingo_symbol: XLC
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."

  - id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
    name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
    symbol: XLY
    tiingo_symbol: XLY
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."

  - id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
    name: Consumer Staples Sector
    symbol: XLP
    tiingo_symbol: XLP
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."

  - id: HEALTHCARE
    name: Healthcare Sector
    symbol: XLV
    tiingo_symbol: XLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."

  - id: FINANCIALS
    name: Financials Sector
    symbol: XLF
    tiingo_symbol: XLF
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."

  - id: INDUSTRIALS
    name: Industrials Sector
    symbol: XLI
    tiingo_symbol: XLI
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."

  - id: ENERGY
    name: Energy Sector
    symbol: XLE
    tiingo_symbol: XLE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."

  - id: MATERIALS
    name: Materials Sector
    symbol: XLB
    tiingo_symbol: XLB
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."

  - id: UTILITIES
    name: Utilities Sector
    symbol: XLU
    tiingo_symbol: XLU
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."

  - id: REAL_ESTATE
    name: Real Estate Sector
    symbol: XLRE
    tiingo_symbol: XLRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."

  - id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
    name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: IEF
    tiingo_symbol: IEF
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."

  - id: LONG_TREASURY
    name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: TLT
    tiingo_symbol: TLT
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."

  - id: TIPS
    name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
    symbol: TIP
    tiingo_symbol: TIP
    asset_class: bond
    category: inflation_linked_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."

  - id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
    name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
    symbol: LQD
    tiingo_symbol: LQD
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."

  - id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
    name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
    symbol: HYG
    tiingo_symbol: HYG
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."

  - id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
    name: US Aggregate Bond Market
    symbol: AGG
    tiingo_symbol: AGG
    asset_class: bond
    category: aggregate_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."

  - id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
    name: Developed Markets ex-US
    symbol: VEA
    tiingo_symbol: VEA
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKETS
    name: Emerging Markets
    symbol: VWO
    tiingo_symbol: VWO
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."

  - id: EUROPE
    name: Europe Equities
    symbol: VGK
    tiingo_symbol: VGK
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."

  - id: JAPAN
    name: Japan Equities
    symbol: EWJ
    tiingo_symbol: EWJ
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."

  - id: CHINA
    name: China Equities
    symbol: MCHI
    tiingo_symbol: MCHI
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: INDIA
    name: India Equities
    symbol: INDA
    tiingo_symbol: INDA
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."

  - id: GOLD
    name: Gold
    symbol: IAU
    tiingo_symbol: IAU
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
    name: Broad Commodities
    symbol: PDBC
    tiingo_symbol: PDBC
    asset_class: commodity
    category: broad_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."

  - id: SEMICONDUCTORS
    name: Semiconductors
    symbol: SMH
    tiingo_symbol: SMH
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."

  - id: SOFTWARE
    name: Software
    symbol: IGV
    tiingo_symbol: IGV
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."

  - id: BROAD_AI_TECH
    name: Broad AI Technology
    symbol: AIQ
    tiingo_symbol: AIQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."

  - id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
    name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
    symbol: ARKQ
    tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."

  - id: CYBERSECURITY
    name: Cybersecurity
    symbol: CIBR
    tiingo_symbol: CIBR
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."

  - id: SOLAR
    name: Solar Energy
    symbol: TAN
    tiingo_symbol: TAN
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: clean_energy
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."

  - id: METALS_MINING
    name: Metals and Mining
    symbol: XME
    tiingo_symbol: XME
    asset_class: equity
    category: commodity_equity
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."

  - id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
    name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
    symbol: RSP
    tiingo_symbol: RSP
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."

  - id: BIOTECH
    name: Biotechnology
    symbol: XBI
    tiingo_symbol: XBI
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."

  - id: REGIONAL_BANKS
    name: Regional Banks
    symbol: KRE
    tiingo_symbol: KRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."

  - id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
    name: Aerospace and Defense
    symbol: ITA
    tiingo_symbol: ITA
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: CANADA
    name: Canada Equities
    symbol: EWC
    tiingo_symbol: EWC
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."

  - id: UNITED_KINGDOM
    name: United Kingdom Equities
    symbol: EWU
    tiingo_symbol: EWU
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."

  - id: AUSTRALIA
    name: Australia Equities
    symbol: EWA
    tiingo_symbol: EWA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."

  - id: SOUTH_KOREA
    name: South Korea Equities
    symbol: EWY
    tiingo_symbol: EWY
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."

  - id: TAIWAN
    name: Taiwan Equities
    symbol: EWT
    tiingo_symbol: EWT
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: BRAZIL
    name: Brazil Equities
    symbol: EWZ
    tiingo_symbol: EWZ
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."

  - id: MEXICO
    name: Mexico Equities
    symbol: EWW
    tiingo_symbol: EWW
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."

  - id: SOUTH_AFRICA
    name: South Africa Equities
    symbol: EZA
    tiingo_symbol: EZA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."

  - id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
    name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
    symbol: MBB
    tiingo_symbol: MBB
    asset_class: bond
    category: securitized_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."

  - id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
    name: Municipal Bonds
    symbol: MUB
    tiingo_symbol: MUB
    asset_class: bond
    category: municipal_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
    name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
    symbol: EMB
    tiingo_symbol: EMB
    asset_class: bond
    category: emerging_market_debt
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."

  - id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
    name: International Aggregate Bonds
    symbol: BNDX
    tiingo_symbol: BNDX
    asset_class: bond
    category: international_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."

  - id: SILVER
    name: Silver
    symbol: SLV
    tiingo_symbol: SLV
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."

  - id: COPPER
    name: Copper
    symbol: CPER
    tiingo_symbol: CPER
    asset_class: commodity
    category: industrial_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."

  - id: AGRICULTURE
    name: Agriculture Commodities
    symbol: DBA
    tiingo_symbol: DBA
    asset_class: commodity
    category: agriculture
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."

  - id: OIL
    name: Crude Oil
    symbol: USO
    tiingo_symbol: USO
    asset_class: commodity
    category: energy_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."

  - id: US_DOLLAR
    name: US Dollar
    symbol: UUP
    tiingo_symbol: UUP
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."

  - id: EURO
    name: Euro
    symbol: FXE
    tiingo_symbol: FXE
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."

  - id: YEN
    name: Japanese Yen
    symbol: FXY
    tiingo_symbol: FXY
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BITCOIN_ETF
    name: Bitcoin ETF
    symbol: IBIT
    tiingo_symbol: IBIT
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."

  - id: ETHEREUM_ETF
    name: Ethereum ETF
    symbol: ETHA
    tiingo_symbol: ETHA
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."
Round Hashes hashes.json
{
  "algorithm": "sha256",
  "files": {
    "briefing.md": "9919ea62d295c08bfbfb3ef2ab267ab1d7de1e196a7bb5028344dc8b8ed77176",
    "manifest.yaml": "9d93c78d0833b5711328c0d018abb144bff4d4576a06cdd760a85a9a15319270",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv": "3143d3d3a51ee7eb219e7c8bf7e4908568aa4e1d3375a0660c359488744cd8b2",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json": "f81b44add4dc75e5716f1a4606a6b70d9c3306deb10d643a7fc5d3d0bf94fc65",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md": "36556b4c86167e1ef6c6b0fca3e489889d2705afe148df8ba4a39bf8df092961",
    "options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
    "prompt.md": "0e5a222ebba001788946308d0e0b4c71b9e1bdc4f2882aad00ed1514ecaa5c5f"
  }
}
Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 8 model calls
Claude Fable 5
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-13-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF
Claude Opus 4.7
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-13-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF
Claude Opus 4.8
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-13-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF
Gemini 3.1 Pro
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-13-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF
GPT-5.5
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-13-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF
GPT-5.6 Sol
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-13-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF
Grok 4.3
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-13-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF
Grok 4.5
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-13-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF
Parsed provider responses

Model Outputs

These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.

Anthropic

Claude Fable 5

anthropic-claude-fable-5

5 holdings Energy Sector (XLE)
Energy Sector (XLE) 30% Crude Oil (USO) 10% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 25% US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) 20% Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) 15%
Confidence
0.50
Run Type
official
Rationale

An escalating Hormuz blockade, oil supply shock, sticky 4.2% CPI, and rising yields favor energy and value over rate-sensitive growth/tech, which was already selling off into the entry. Defensive low-vol and T-bills buffer against a broad risk-off move over the month.

Overweight energy and value for the oil supply shock and inflation backdrop, with low-vol and T-bill ballast against geopolitically driven equity weakness; underweight rate-sensitive growth.

Portfolio
  • Energy Sector (XLE): 30% - Direct beneficiary of Hormuz blockade escalation and Brent at $83; equities lag spot crude and offer upside with less curve decay than USO.
  • Crude Oil (USO): 10% - Highest-torque exposure to supply disruption from the July 14 blockade; negative beta to SPY hedges equity drawdown.
  • US Large-Cap Value (IWD): 25% - Value with energy/financials tilt outperforms growth when 10y yields rise to 4.61% and inflation runs 4.2%.
  • US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV): 20% - Defensive equity holding up well (+2.8% 30d vs SPY) amid geopolitical stress and rate pressure; near-zero beta cushions selloff.
  • Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL): 15% - Cash-like yield with no duration risk while yields rise and rate-cut odds fade on hot CPI.
Key Risks
  • Rapid de-escalation or negotiated Hormuz resolution could crater crude prices and reverse energy gains
  • A soft June/July CPI print could rally growth/tech and QQQ, causing this value/energy tilt to lag SPY
  • Demand destruction from an oil shock could hit energy equities alongside broad markets
  • USO futures roll and volatility can erode returns even if spot crude stays elevated
Validated JSON
{
  "confidence": 0.5,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Rapid de-escalation or negotiated Hormuz resolution could crater crude prices and reverse energy gains",
    "A soft June/July CPI print could rally growth/tech and QQQ, causing this value/energy tilt to lag SPY",
    "Demand destruction from an oil shock could hit energy equities alongside broad markets",
    "USO futures roll and volatility can erode returns even if spot crude stays elevated"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "Direct beneficiary of Hormuz blockade escalation and Brent at $83; equities lag spot crude and offer upside with less curve decay than USO."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "OIL",
      "rationale": "Highest-torque exposure to supply disruption from the July 14 blockade; negative beta to SPY hedges equity drawdown."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
      "rationale": "Value with energy/financials tilt outperforms growth when 10y yields rise to 4.61% and inflation runs 4.2%."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "LOW_VOL",
      "rationale": "Defensive equity holding up well (+2.8% 30d vs SPY) amid geopolitical stress and rate pressure; near-zero beta cushions selloff."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
      "rationale": "Cash-like yield with no duration risk while yields rise and rate-cut odds fade on hot CPI."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "An escalating Hormuz blockade, oil supply shock, sticky 4.2% CPI, and rising yields favor energy and value over rate-sensitive growth/tech, which was already selling off into the entry. Defensive low-vol and T-bills buffer against a broad risk-off move over the month.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Overweight energy and value for the oil supply shock and inflation backdrop, with low-vol and T-bill ballast against geopolitically driven equity weakness; underweight rate-sensitive growth.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-13-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 22124,
    "latency_seconds": 16.973843061947264,
    "output_tokens": 944,
    "total_tokens": 23068
  }
}
Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.7

anthropic-claude-opus-4-7

5 holdings Energy Sector (XLE)
Energy Sector (XLE) 30% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20% US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) 15% Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) 15% Financials Sector (XLF) 20%
Confidence
0.55
Run Type
official
Rationale

Defensive tilt with an energy overweight to capture Hormuz blockade risk premium, paired with healthcare/low-vol ballast and financials for bank-earnings catalyst. Short Treasuries provide optionality against sticky inflation and rising yields.

Barbell: energy upside from Strait of Hormuz escalation plus defensive low-beta sectors (healthcare, low-vol) and financials into earnings, with short T-bills as ballast against rate and geopolitical volatility.

Portfolio
  • Energy Sector (XLE): 30% - Hormuz blockade escalation and 20% cargo toll announcement; Brent +9.6%, oil supply risk into exit window with XLE lagging spot.
  • Healthcare Sector (XLV): 20% - Defensive with strong recent momentum (+5.4% 30d, +4.14% vs SPY); low beta hedge amid tech drawdown and geopolitical risk.
  • US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV): 15% - Defensive factor outperforming; near-zero beta helps hedge rate/geopolitical shock into FOMC and CPI prints.
  • Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL): 15% - Dry powder given 10Y yield rising to 4.61%, sticky CPI (4.2%), and unresolved Hormuz situation.
  • Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Steepening curve, big-bank Q2 earnings catalyst next week, strong recent relative strength (+4.23% vs SPY 30d).
Key Risks
  • Hormuz de-escalation collapses oil premium and XLE
  • Hot June/July CPI triggers hawkish Fed repricing hurting all equities
  • Bank earnings disappoint on credit or NIM, hitting XLF
  • Healthcare policy or drug-pricing headline reverses recent XLV strength
Validated JSON
{
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Hormuz de-escalation collapses oil premium and XLE",
    "Hot June/July CPI triggers hawkish Fed repricing hurting all equities",
    "Bank earnings disappoint on credit or NIM, hitting XLF",
    "Healthcare policy or drug-pricing headline reverses recent XLV strength"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "Hormuz blockade escalation and 20% cargo toll announcement; Brent +9.6%, oil supply risk into exit window with XLE lagging spot."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive with strong recent momentum (+5.4% 30d, +4.14% vs SPY); low beta hedge amid tech drawdown and geopolitical risk."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "LOW_VOL",
      "rationale": "Defensive factor outperforming; near-zero beta helps hedge rate/geopolitical shock into FOMC and CPI prints."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
      "rationale": "Dry powder given 10Y yield rising to 4.61%, sticky CPI (4.2%), and unresolved Hormuz situation."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Steepening curve, big-bank Q2 earnings catalyst next week, strong recent relative strength (+4.23% vs SPY 30d)."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Defensive tilt with an energy overweight to capture Hormuz blockade risk premium, paired with healthcare/low-vol ballast and financials for bank-earnings catalyst. Short Treasuries provide optionality against sticky inflation and rising yields.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Barbell: energy upside from Strait of Hormuz escalation plus defensive low-beta sectors (healthcare, low-vol) and financials into earnings, with short T-bills as ballast against rate and geopolitical volatility.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-13-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 22133,
    "latency_seconds": 14.412698482978158,
    "output_tokens": 777,
    "total_tokens": 22910
  }
}
Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.8

anthropic-claude-opus-4-8

5 holdings Energy Sector (XLE)
Energy Sector (XLE) 25% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 20% US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) 20% Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) 15%
Confidence
0.55
Run Type
official
Rationale

Given rising yields, sticky inflation, weak tech/semis momentum, and an active Strait of Hormuz oil catalyst, I tilt defensive with energy upside and rate-beneficiary financials while trimming market beta.

Defensive rotation into energy, healthcare, financials, low-vol equity plus short-duration Treasuries to capture geopolitical/oil upside while limiting exposure to the fading tech/growth leadership.

Portfolio
  • Energy Sector (XLE): 25% - Strait of Hormuz blockade set to resume July 14, oil up sharply, Brent up 9.6%; energy equities have negative beta to broad market and direct catalyst upside if disruption persists.
  • Healthcare Sector (XLV): 20% - Defensive sector with strong 30d relative outperformance (+4.14%), low beta 0.35, benefits from rotation amid rising rates and tech weakness.
  • Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Strong recent momentum (+5.49% 30d, +4.23% vs SPY), Q2 bank earnings July 14-17 as near-term catalyst, benefits from higher yields.
  • US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV): 20% - Defensive tilt with near-zero beta, positive relative performance; hedges against tech-led drawdown and geopolitical volatility.
  • Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL): 15% - Cash-like ballast amid rising 10yr yields (4.61%), sticky inflation (core 2.9%), and unresolved Hormuz shock; preserves capital with positive carry.
Key Risks
  • Strait of Hormuz de-escalates quickly, reversing the oil/energy trade
  • Tech/semiconductor rebound drives SPY higher, causing defensive tilt to underperform the benchmark
  • Bank Q2 earnings disappoint, pressuring the financials allocation
  • A dovish FOMC on July 29 sparks a growth/tech rally that low-vol and cash miss
Validated JSON
{
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Strait of Hormuz de-escalates quickly, reversing the oil/energy trade",
    "Tech/semiconductor rebound drives SPY higher, causing defensive tilt to underperform the benchmark",
    "Bank Q2 earnings disappoint, pressuring the financials allocation",
    "A dovish FOMC on July 29 sparks a growth/tech rally that low-vol and cash miss"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "Strait of Hormuz blockade set to resume July 14, oil up sharply, Brent up 9.6%; energy equities have negative beta to broad market and direct catalyst upside if disruption persists."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive sector with strong 30d relative outperformance (+4.14%), low beta 0.35, benefits from rotation amid rising rates and tech weakness."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Strong recent momentum (+5.49% 30d, +4.23% vs SPY), Q2 bank earnings July 14-17 as near-term catalyst, benefits from higher yields."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "LOW_VOL",
      "rationale": "Defensive tilt with near-zero beta, positive relative performance; hedges against tech-led drawdown and geopolitical volatility."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
      "rationale": "Cash-like ballast amid rising 10yr yields (4.61%), sticky inflation (core 2.9%), and unresolved Hormuz shock; preserves capital with positive carry."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Given rising yields, sticky inflation, weak tech/semis momentum, and an active Strait of Hormuz oil catalyst, I tilt defensive with energy upside and rate-beneficiary financials while trimming market beta.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Defensive rotation into energy, healthcare, financials, low-vol equity plus short-duration Treasuries to capture geopolitical/oil upside while limiting exposure to the fading tech/growth leadership.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-13-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 22128,
    "latency_seconds": 14.18383537302725,
    "output_tokens": 823,
    "total_tokens": 22951
  }
}
Google

Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

4 holdings Crude Oil (USO)
Crude Oil (USO) 30% Energy Sector (XLE) 30% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 20% Gold (IAU) 20%
Confidence
0.85
Run Type
official
Rationale

The portfolio is heavily tilted toward energy, defense, and safe-haven assets to capitalize on the severe geopolitical escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The US blockade on Iranian shipping is highly likely to disrupt global oil supplies, driving up crude prices and benefiting energy equities, while defense stocks and gold provide a hedge against broader market instability.

Overweight oil, energy, defense, and gold to profit from the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Portfolio
  • Crude Oil (USO): 30% - Directly benefits from the announced US blockade of Iranian shipping and conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens global oil supply.
  • Energy Sector (XLE): 30% - Provides equity exposure to rising crude prices while offering some diversification compared to direct commodity holdings.
  • Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 20% - Positioned to benefit from the direct military engagement between the US and Iran and the enforcement of the naval blockade.
  • Gold (IAU): 20% - Acts as a safe-haven asset amid severe geopolitical escalation and rising inflation concerns.
Key Risks
  • A sudden diplomatic de-escalation or lifting of the blockade could cause a sharp reversal in oil prices.
  • A broader macroeconomic shock or aggressive Fed tightening could drag down all equity sectors, including energy and defense.
  • Rising real interest rates could pressure gold prices despite its safe-haven appeal.
Validated JSON
{
  "confidence": 0.85,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A sudden diplomatic de-escalation or lifting of the blockade could cause a sharp reversal in oil prices.",
    "A broader macroeconomic shock or aggressive Fed tightening could drag down all equity sectors, including energy and defense.",
    "Rising real interest rates could pressure gold prices despite its safe-haven appeal."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "OIL",
      "rationale": "Directly benefits from the announced US blockade of Iranian shipping and conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, which threatens global oil supply."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "Provides equity exposure to rising crude prices while offering some diversification compared to direct commodity holdings."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
      "rationale": "Positioned to benefit from the direct military engagement between the US and Iran and the enforcement of the naval blockade."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "GOLD",
      "rationale": "Acts as a safe-haven asset amid severe geopolitical escalation and rising inflation concerns."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is heavily tilted toward energy, defense, and safe-haven assets to capitalize on the severe geopolitical escalation in the Strait of Hormuz. The US blockade on Iranian shipping is highly likely to disrupt global oil supplies, driving up crude prices and benefiting energy equities, while defense stocks and gold provide a hedge against broader market instability.",
  "provider": "google",
  "rationale_summary": "Overweight oil, energy, defense, and gold to profit from the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-13-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 15722,
    "latency_seconds": 11.727274334989488,
    "output_tokens": 493,
    "reasoning_tokens": 696,
    "total_tokens": 16911
  }
}
OpenAI

GPT-5.5

openai-gpt-5-5

5 holdings Crude Oil (USO)
Crude Oil (USO) 45% Energy Sector (XLE) 25% Broad Commodities (PDBC) 15% US Dollar (UUP) 10% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 5%
Confidence
0.46
Run Type
official
Rationale

The portfolio is tilted toward the clearest one-month catalyst in the briefing: unresolved Hormuz disruption risk and a sharp oil-price repricing. A smaller dollar and defense allocation diversifies the geopolitical and rates impulse while keeping most risk in assets that can outperform SPY if energy supply stress persists.

Over the July 13 to August 13 window, the highest-conviction relative opportunity is an energy/geopolitical shock trade rather than broad equity beta. The allocation emphasizes crude and energy producers, with commodity, dollar, and defense complements.

Portfolio
  • Crude Oil (USO): 45% - Direct exposure to crude prices, with unresolved Strait of Hormuz blockade and transit-risk headlines creating a plausible near-term upside catalyst before the exit date.
  • Energy Sector (XLE): 25% - Energy equities should benefit from sustained higher oil prices while offering somewhat less futures-curve and daily volatility risk than pure crude exposure.
  • Broad Commodities (PDBC): 15% - Diversified commodity exposure adds participation in energy-led inflation and supply-risk repricing without relying solely on crude oil.
  • US Dollar (UUP): 10% - Higher Treasury yields, geopolitical stress, and potentially sticky inflation support dollar strength as a partial hedge against equity weakness.
  • Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 5% - Geopolitical escalation and defense-spending attention may support a rebound after the recent pullback.
Key Risks
  • A rapid diplomatic de-escalation or uninterrupted Strait of Hormuz transit could reverse the oil spike and hurt OIL, ENERGY, and BROAD_COMMODITIES.
  • A weak global growth signal from payrolls, GDP, or earnings could pressure oil demand expectations and energy equities despite supply risk.
  • Hot CPI or hawkish FOMC communication could tighten financial conditions enough to weigh on equities, including energy and defense stocks.
  • Oil futures curve dynamics and ETF roll costs could cause OIL to underperform spot crude over the month.
  • If mega-cap technology rebounds sharply after earnings, this defensive commodity-heavy portfolio could lag the S&P 500.
Validated JSON
{
  "confidence": 0.46,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A rapid diplomatic de-escalation or uninterrupted Strait of Hormuz transit could reverse the oil spike and hurt OIL, ENERGY, and BROAD_COMMODITIES.",
    "A weak global growth signal from payrolls, GDP, or earnings could pressure oil demand expectations and energy equities despite supply risk.",
    "Hot CPI or hawkish FOMC communication could tighten financial conditions enough to weigh on equities, including energy and defense stocks.",
    "Oil futures curve dynamics and ETF roll costs could cause OIL to underperform spot crude over the month.",
    "If mega-cap technology rebounds sharply after earnings, this defensive commodity-heavy portfolio could lag the S&P 500."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 45,
      "option_id": "OIL",
      "rationale": "Direct exposure to crude prices, with unresolved Strait of Hormuz blockade and transit-risk headlines creating a plausible near-term upside catalyst before the exit date."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "Energy equities should benefit from sustained higher oil prices while offering somewhat less futures-curve and daily volatility risk than pure crude exposure."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
      "rationale": "Diversified commodity exposure adds participation in energy-led inflation and supply-risk repricing without relying solely on crude oil."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
      "rationale": "Higher Treasury yields, geopolitical stress, and potentially sticky inflation support dollar strength as a partial hedge against equity weakness."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 5,
      "option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
      "rationale": "Geopolitical escalation and defense-spending attention may support a rebound after the recent pullback."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is tilted toward the clearest one-month catalyst in the briefing: unresolved Hormuz disruption risk and a sharp oil-price repricing. A smaller dollar and defense allocation diversifies the geopolitical and rates impulse while keeping most risk in assets that can outperform SPY if energy supply stress persists.",
  "provider": "openai",
  "rationale_summary": "Over the July 13 to August 13 window, the highest-conviction relative opportunity is an energy/geopolitical shock trade rather than broad equity beta. The allocation emphasizes crude and energy producers, with commodity, dollar, and defense complements.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-13-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 14220,
    "latency_seconds": 14.027035236009397,
    "output_tokens": 816,
    "reasoning_tokens": 307,
    "total_tokens": 15036
  }
}
OpenAI

GPT-5.6 Sol

openai-gpt-5-6-sol

5 holdings Energy Sector (XLE)
Energy Sector (XLE) 35% Crude Oil (USO) 25% Financials Sector (XLF) 15% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 15% US Dollar (UUP) 10%
Confidence
0.61
Run Type
official
Rationale

The portfolio emphasizes the briefing's clearest near-term catalyst—oil-supply risk around Hormuz—while using financials, healthcare, and the dollar to diversify direct commodity exposure. It avoids rate-sensitive long-duration assets and richly volatile technology amid elevated inflation and yields.

Geopolitical supply disruption, persistent inflation, and high Treasury yields favor energy and the dollar over duration-sensitive growth. Financials and healthcare add earnings catalysts and broader sector diversification.

Portfolio
  • Energy Sector (XLE): 35% - Hormuz disruption and the renewed blockade create a near-term earnings and cash-flow tailwind for energy producers, with less futures-curve risk than direct oil exposure.
  • Crude Oil (USO): 25% - Unresolved control of Hormuz and imminent resumption of the blockade provide the strongest explicit one-month supply catalyst despite high volatility.
  • Financials Sector (XLF): 15% - Major-bank earnings are immediate catalysts, while a 4.61% 10-year yield and recent relative strength support the sector, subject to credit risk.
  • Healthcare Sector (XLV): 15% - Recent broad participation and defensive characteristics offer diversification against weakening labor data and growth-stock pressure.
  • US Dollar (UUP): 10% - Elevated US yields, geopolitical stress, and risk aversion can sustain safe-haven and rate-differential demand for the dollar.
Key Risks
  • A rapid ceasefire, restored Hormuz transit, or reversal of the blockade could sharply unwind oil and energy gains.
  • June or July inflation could undershoot expectations, lowering yields and rotating leadership back toward long-duration technology.
  • Weak bank earnings, deposit pressure, or deteriorating credit quality could outweigh benefits from higher rates.
  • A sharper labor-market slowdown could reduce oil demand expectations and pressure cyclical equities.
  • Oil's recent 12.9% weekly surge raises substantial short-term reversal and futures-curve risk.
Validated JSON
{
  "confidence": 0.61,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A rapid ceasefire, restored Hormuz transit, or reversal of the blockade could sharply unwind oil and energy gains.",
    "June or July inflation could undershoot expectations, lowering yields and rotating leadership back toward long-duration technology.",
    "Weak bank earnings, deposit pressure, or deteriorating credit quality could outweigh benefits from higher rates.",
    "A sharper labor-market slowdown could reduce oil demand expectations and pressure cyclical equities.",
    "Oil's recent 12.9% weekly surge raises substantial short-term reversal and futures-curve risk."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 35,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "Hormuz disruption and the renewed blockade create a near-term earnings and cash-flow tailwind for energy producers, with less futures-curve risk than direct oil exposure."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "OIL",
      "rationale": "Unresolved control of Hormuz and imminent resumption of the blockade provide the strongest explicit one-month supply catalyst despite high volatility."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Major-bank earnings are immediate catalysts, while a 4.61% 10-year yield and recent relative strength support the sector, subject to credit risk."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Recent broad participation and defensive characteristics offer diversification against weakening labor data and growth-stock pressure."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
      "rationale": "Elevated US yields, geopolitical stress, and risk aversion can sustain safe-haven and rate-differential demand for the dollar."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes the briefing's clearest near-term catalyst—oil-supply risk around Hormuz—while using financials, healthcare, and the dollar to diversify direct commodity exposure. It avoids rate-sensitive long-duration assets and richly volatile technology amid elevated inflation and yields.",
  "provider": "openai",
  "rationale_summary": "Geopolitical supply disruption, persistent inflation, and high Treasury yields favor energy and the dollar over duration-sensitive growth. Financials and healthcare add earnings catalysts and broader sector diversification.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-13-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 14222,
    "latency_seconds": 9.825107835931703,
    "output_tokens": 473,
    "reasoning_tokens": 0,
    "total_tokens": 14695
  }
}
xAI

Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

3 holdings Energy Sector (XLE)
Energy Sector (XLE) 50% Financials Sector (XLF) 30% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20%
Confidence
0.65
Run Type
official
Rationale

Concentrated exposure to energy for geopolitical oil premium plus value and defensive sectors that outperformed in the latest selloff.

Energy positioned for continued Hormuz-driven gains; financials and healthcare provide relative stability ahead of FOMC and CPI releases.

Portfolio
  • Energy Sector (XLE): 50% - Unresolved Strait of Hormuz blockade and Brent surge to $83.30 support sustained energy price premium through August.
  • Financials Sector (XLF): 30% - Recent 5.49% 30-day outperformance and sensitivity to any steepening yield curve from inflation data.
  • Healthcare Sector (XLV): 20% - Defensive characteristics with 5.40% 30-day gain amid weak payrolls and policy uncertainty.
Key Risks
  • Rapid de-escalation in Hormuz reducing oil prices before exit date
  • Weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP or July employment data pressuring cyclicals
  • FOMC signaling tighter policy on persistent inflation
Validated JSON
{
  "confidence": 0.65,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Rapid de-escalation in Hormuz reducing oil prices before exit date",
    "Weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP or July employment data pressuring cyclicals",
    "FOMC signaling tighter policy on persistent inflation"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 50,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "Unresolved Strait of Hormuz blockade and Brent surge to $83.30 support sustained energy price premium through August."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Recent 5.49% 30-day outperformance and sensitivity to any steepening yield curve from inflation data."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive characteristics with 5.40% 30-day gain amid weak payrolls and policy uncertainty."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Concentrated exposure to energy for geopolitical oil premium plus value and defensive sectors that outperformed in the latest selloff.",
  "provider": "xai",
  "rationale_summary": "Energy positioned for continued Hormuz-driven gains; financials and healthcare provide relative stability ahead of FOMC and CPI releases.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-13-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 14413,
    "latency_seconds": 12.992593638016842,
    "output_tokens": 336,
    "reasoning_tokens": 600,
    "total_tokens": 15349
  }
}
xAI

Grok 4.5

xai-grok-4-5

5 holdings Energy Sector (XLE)
Energy Sector (XLE) 35% Crude Oil (USO) 25% Financials Sector (XLF) 20% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 15% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 5%
Confidence
0.58
Run Type
official
Rationale

Concentrate on energy complex for Hormuz catalyst while adding financials and healthcare for earnings and defensive balance over the one-month window. Avoid stretched tech/semis given recent weakness and rate uncertainty.

Geopolitical oil risk is the dominant near-term price driver; pair with relative-strength sectors less exposed to growth/tech drawdowns ahead of FOMC and CPI prints.

Portfolio
  • Energy Sector (XLE): 35% - Hormuz blockade restart and dual control claims create near-term upside for energy equities via oil price support before August exit.
  • Crude Oil (USO): 25% - Direct crude exposure benefits from unresolved Strait transit risks and announced US Iranian shipping blockade starting July 14.
  • Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Upcoming major-bank Q2 results and relative 30d strength position financials for potential outperformance amid rate and growth data.
  • Healthcare Sector (XLV): 15% - Defensive sector with strong recent relative returns and lower beta offers ballast if oil-driven inflation or risk-off hits broader market.
  • US Large-Cap Value (IWD): 5% - Value tilt captures energy/financials exposure with lower growth sensitivity while rates remain elevated.
Key Risks
  • Rapid de-escalation or free transit restoration in Hormuz could reverse oil/energy gains
  • Higher-than-expected June/July CPI or hawkish FOMC could pressure equities and rates-sensitive holdings
  • Weak bank earnings or further soft labor data could undermine financials allocation
  • Broad risk-off from Asia equity weakness or tech spillover could drag even value/energy names
Validated JSON
{
  "confidence": 0.58,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Rapid de-escalation or free transit restoration in Hormuz could reverse oil/energy gains",
    "Higher-than-expected June/July CPI or hawkish FOMC could pressure equities and rates-sensitive holdings",
    "Weak bank earnings or further soft labor data could undermine financials allocation",
    "Broad risk-off from Asia equity weakness or tech spillover could drag even value/energy names"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 35,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "Hormuz blockade restart and dual control claims create near-term upside for energy equities via oil price support before August exit."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "OIL",
      "rationale": "Direct crude exposure benefits from unresolved Strait transit risks and announced US Iranian shipping blockade starting July 14."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Upcoming major-bank Q2 results and relative 30d strength position financials for potential outperformance amid rate and growth data."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive sector with strong recent relative returns and lower beta offers ballast if oil-driven inflation or risk-off hits broader market."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 5,
      "option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
      "rationale": "Value tilt captures energy/financials exposure with lower growth sensitivity while rates remain elevated."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Concentrate on energy complex for Hormuz catalyst while adding financials and healthcare for earnings and defensive balance over the one-month window. Avoid stretched tech/semis given recent weakness and rate uncertainty.",
  "provider": "xai",
  "rationale_summary": "Geopolitical oil risk is the dominant near-term price driver; pair with relative-strength sectors less exposed to growth/tech drawdowns ahead of FOMC and CPI prints.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-13-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 14968,
    "latency_seconds": 12.898116686963476,
    "output_tokens": 542,
    "reasoning_tokens": 673,
    "total_tokens": 16183
  }
}
Public model run

Model Portfolios

This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.

ModelProviderPortfolioConfidenceProtocol
Claude Fable 5
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Anthropic
Energy Sector (XLE)30%Crude Oil (USO)10%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)20%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)15%
0.50
Portfolio round
Claude Opus 4.7
anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
Anthropic
Energy Sector (XLE)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)15%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)15%Financials Sector (XLF)20%
0.55
Portfolio round
Claude Opus 4.8
anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Anthropic
Energy Sector (XLE)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)20%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)15%
0.55
Portfolio round
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google-gemini-3-1-pro
Google
Crude Oil (USO)30%Energy Sector (XLE)30%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)20%Gold (IAU)20%
0.85
Portfolio round
GPT-5.5
openai-gpt-5-5
OpenAI
Crude Oil (USO)45%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Broad Commodities (PDBC)15%US Dollar (UUP)10%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)5%
0.46
Portfolio round
GPT-5.6 Sol
openai-gpt-5-6-sol
OpenAI
Energy Sector (XLE)35%Crude Oil (USO)25%Financials Sector (XLF)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%US Dollar (UUP)10%
0.61
Portfolio round
Grok 4.3
xai-grok-4-3
xAI
Energy Sector (XLE)50%Financials Sector (XLF)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%
0.65
Portfolio round
Grok 4.5
xai-grok-4-5
xAI
Energy Sector (XLE)35%Crude Oil (USO)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)5%
0.58
Portfolio round
Pricing

Starting Prices

Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.

Aerospace and Defense (ITA)ITA2026-07-13235.05Yahoo adjusted close
Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB)MBB2026-07-1393.26Yahoo adjusted close
Agriculture Commodities (DBA)DBA2026-07-1327.72Yahoo adjusted close
Australia Equities (EWA)EWA2026-07-1328.35Yahoo adjusted close
Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)ARKQ2026-07-13120.70Yahoo adjusted close
Biotechnology (XBI)XBI2026-07-13155.34Yahoo adjusted close
Bitcoin ETF (IBIT)IBIT2026-07-1335.22Yahoo adjusted close
Brazil Equities (EWZ)EWZ2026-07-1335.39Tiingo adjusted close
Broad AI Technology (AIQ)AIQ2026-07-1361.30Yahoo adjusted close
Broad Commodities (PDBC)PDBC2026-07-1316.90Yahoo adjusted close
Canada Equities (EWC)EWC2026-07-1358.73Yahoo adjusted close
Cash / Do Not Invest2026-07-131.00cash
China Equities (MCHI)MCHI2026-07-1352.53Tiingo adjusted close
Communication Services Sector (XLC)XLC2026-07-13111.59Yahoo adjusted close
Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)XLY2026-07-13116.04Yahoo adjusted close
Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)XLP2026-07-1384.59Yahoo adjusted close
Copper (CPER)CPER2026-07-1337.94Yahoo adjusted close
Crude Oil (USO)USO2026-07-13117.79Yahoo adjusted close
Cybersecurity (CIBR)CIBR2026-07-1391.84Yahoo adjusted close
Developed Markets ex-US (VEA)VEA2026-07-1369.76Yahoo adjusted close
Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB)EMB2026-07-1395.38Yahoo adjusted close
Emerging Markets (VWO)VWO2026-07-1358.79Yahoo adjusted close
Energy Sector (XLE)XLE2026-07-1356.74Yahoo adjusted close
Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)RSP2026-07-13214.23Yahoo adjusted close
Ethereum ETF (ETHA)ETHA2026-07-1313.37Yahoo adjusted close
Euro (FXE)FXE2026-07-13105.01Yahoo adjusted close
Europe Equities (VGK)VGK2026-07-1387.86Yahoo adjusted close
Financials Sector (XLF)XLF2026-07-1356.07Yahoo adjusted close
Gold (IAU)IAU2026-07-1375.25Yahoo adjusted close
Healthcare Sector (XLV)XLV2026-07-13161.41Yahoo adjusted close
High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG)HYG2026-07-1379.52Yahoo adjusted close
India Equities (INDA)INDA2026-07-1348.79Yahoo adjusted close
Industrials Sector (XLI)XLI2026-07-13180.37Yahoo adjusted close
Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF)IEF2026-07-1393.29Yahoo adjusted close
International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX)BNDX2026-07-1347.89Yahoo adjusted close
Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD)LQD2026-07-13106.96Tiingo adjusted close
Japan Equities (EWJ)EWJ2026-07-1392.72Yahoo adjusted close
Japanese Yen (FXY)FXY2026-07-1356.46Yahoo adjusted close
Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT)TLT2026-07-1383.97Yahoo adjusted close
Materials Sector (XLB)XLB2026-07-1350.58Yahoo adjusted close
Metals and Mining (XME)XME2026-07-13102.09Yahoo adjusted close
Mexico Equities (EWW)EWW2026-07-1374.15Yahoo adjusted close
Municipal Bonds (MUB)MUB2026-07-13106.90Yahoo adjusted close
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)QQQ2026-07-13711.74Tiingo adjusted close
Real Estate Sector (XLRE)XLRE2026-07-1344.70Tiingo adjusted close
Regional Banks (KRE)KRE2026-07-1375.12Yahoo adjusted close
S&P 500 (SPY)SPY2026-07-13749.17Yahoo adjusted close
Semiconductors (SMH)SMH2026-07-13585.62Yahoo adjusted close
Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)BIL2026-07-1391.50Tiingo adjusted close
Silver (SLV)SLV2026-07-1352.16Yahoo adjusted close
Software (IGV)IGV2026-07-1392.70Yahoo adjusted close
Solar Energy (TAN)TAN2026-07-1353.12Yahoo adjusted close
South Africa Equities (EZA)EZA2026-07-1362.76Yahoo adjusted close
South Korea Equities (EWY)EWY2026-07-13168.02Tiingo adjusted close
Taiwan Equities (EWT)EWT2026-07-13101.88Yahoo adjusted close
Technology Sector (XLK)XLK2026-07-13181.28Yahoo adjusted close
Total US Stock Market (VTI)VTI2026-07-13369.78Yahoo adjusted close
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP)TIP2026-07-13107.91Yahoo adjusted close
United Kingdom Equities (EWU)EWU2026-07-1346.36Yahoo adjusted close
US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG)AGG2026-07-1397.71Yahoo adjusted close
US Dividend Equities (SCHD)SCHD2026-07-1332.56Tiingo adjusted close
US Dollar (UUP)UUP2026-07-1328.50Yahoo adjusted close
US Large-Cap Growth (IWF)IWF2026-07-13121.59Yahoo adjusted close
US Large-Cap Value (IWD)IWD2026-07-13247.62Tiingo adjusted close
US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)SPLV2026-07-1376.41Yahoo adjusted close
US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH)IJH2026-07-1375.24Yahoo adjusted close
US Momentum Equities (MTUM)MTUM2026-07-13314.63Yahoo adjusted close
US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)IWM2026-07-13293.48Yahoo adjusted close
US Small-Cap Value (IWN)IWN2026-07-13219.78Yahoo adjusted close
Utilities Sector (XLU)XLU2026-07-1345.72Yahoo adjusted close
Audit

Published Hashes

Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.

briefing.md
9919ea62d295...8ed77176
manifest.yaml
9d93c78d0833...15319270
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv
3143d3d3a51e...744cd8b2
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json
f81b44add4dc...bf94fc65
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md
36556b4c8616...df092961
options.yaml
1003c5795615...4ce0c729
prompt.md
0e5a222ebba0...ecaa5c5f