google-gemini-3-1-pro
Retired from new benchmark rounds. Historical portfolios and scores remain part of the public record.
Portfolio pattern Tactical allocator No exposure or risk dimension is persistently far from same-round peer norms. Portfolios averaged 3.2 holdings, a 39.6% largest position, and 62.3% turnover.Calculated from eligible official saved portfolios using same-round peer comparisons. How labels and pills are determined
No exposure or risk dimension is persistently far from same-round peer norms. Portfolios averaged 3.2 holdings, a 39.6% largest position, and 62.3% turnover.
Moderate evidence · based on 156 saved portfolios.A score of 62.3 means about 62.3% of allocation would need to change to match the average portfolio selected by the other models.
Compare every modelLeans toward recent laggards. Combined gives monthly and weekly behavior equal weight. The score uses only prices available before each portfolio was frozen.
Candidate-ledger evidence is available for 33 of 156 eligible portfolios. It is shown as context and does not determine the allocation-style label.
Usually favors equities, sectors, or thematic growth exposure.
3 open portfolios across weekly and monthly tests. Completed rounds are excluded.
Latest available close for live rounds only. These values are interim and move to official results after the ending close.
Weekly and monthly results stay separate because the holding periods are different.
Bars to the right beat the S&P 500. Bars to the left trailed it.
Each group uses only rounds completed by every included model.
Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 28 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
GPT-6 Astra 
Claude Opus 5 5 
Grok 4.6 Claude Fable 5.1 Grok 4.3 Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
GPT-6 Astra OpenAI · 6/6 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 5 Anthropic · 6/6 scored rounds Grok 4.6 xAI · 6/6 scored rounds Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic · 6/6 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 6/6 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 6/6 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 6/6 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
GPT-6 Astra Claude Opus 5 5 Grok 4.6 Claude Fable 5.1 Grok 4.3 Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 28 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.5 GPT-6 Astra Grok 4.6 Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5.1 Claude Opus 5 5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.5 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds GPT-6 Astra OpenAI · 3/3 scored rounds Grok 4.6 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 5 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 3/3 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.5 GPT-6 Astra Grok 4.6 Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5.1 Claude Opus 5 5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 4 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.5 Grok 4.6 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Claude Opus 5 Claude Fable 5.1 GPT-6 Astra Grok 4.3 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.5 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds Grok 4.6 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 8/8 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds GPT-6 Astra OpenAI · 8/8 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.5 Grok 4.6 Gemini 3.1 Pro Claude Opus 5 Claude Fable 5.1 GPT-6 Astra Grok 4.3 Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 19 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Grok 4.5 Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.6 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 14/14 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 14/14 scored rounds GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 14/14 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 14/14 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 14/14 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 14/14 scored rounds Grok 4.6 xAI · 14/14 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Gemini 3.1 Pro Grok 4.5 Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.6 Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 24 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
GPT-5.6 Sol Grok 4.5 Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 5 GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Claude Opus 4.8 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 11/11 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 11/11 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 11/11 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
GPT-5.6 Sol Grok 4.5 Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 5 GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Claude Opus 4.8 Gemini 3.1 Pro Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 21 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 GPT-5.6 Sol Grok 4.5 GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Claude Opus 4.8 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 20/20 scored rounds GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 20/20 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 20/20 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 20/20 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 20/20 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 20/20 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 20/20 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 GPT-5.6 Sol Grok 4.5 GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Claude Opus 4.8 Gemini 3.1 Pro Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 10 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Grok 4.5 GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 6/6 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 6/6 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 6/6 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 6/6 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 6/6 scored rounds GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 6/6 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 6/6 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 6/6 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro Grok 4.5 GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Weekly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Grok 4.5 GPT-5.5 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Fable 5 Claude Opus 4.7 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 8/8 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 8/8 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro Grok 4.5 GPT-5.5 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Fable 5 Claude Opus 4.7 Weekly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 15/15 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 15/15 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 15/15 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 15/15 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 15/15 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 15/15 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Weekly comparison set that adds Claude Opus 4.8 to the established model roster.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model GPT-5.5 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 33/33 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 33/33 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 33/33 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 33/33 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 33/33 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro GPT-5.5 Original weekly comparison set for the first four CapitalBench models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 GPT-5.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 35/35 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 35/35 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 35/35 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 35/35 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 GPT-5.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 4 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
GPT-6 Astra Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5.1 Grok 4.6 Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
GPT-6 Astra OpenAI · 8/8 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds Grok 4.6 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 8/8 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
GPT-6 Astra Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5.1 Grok 4.6 Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 19 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Grok 4.3 Grok 4.6 Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 14/14 scored rounds GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 14/14 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 14/14 scored rounds Grok 4.6 xAI · 14/14 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 14/14 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 14/14 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 14/14 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Grok 4.3 Grok 4.6 Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 13 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.6 Grok 4.5 Claude Opus 4.8 Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Claude Opus 5 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.6 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 3/3 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 3/3 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.6 Grok 4.5 Claude Opus 4.8 Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro Claude Opus 5 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 24 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.5 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 11/11 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 11/11 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 11/11 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 11/11 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 11/11 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 21 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 GPT-5.6 Sol A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.5 xAI · 19/19 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 19/19 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 19/19 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 19/19 scored rounds Grok 4.3 xAI · 19/19 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 19/19 scored rounds GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 19/19 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 GPT-5.6 Sol Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Jul 10 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.5 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 4.8 GPT-5.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Fable 5 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 5/5 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 5/5 scored rounds GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 5/5 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 5/5 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 5/5 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 5/5 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 5/5 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 5/5 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Grok 4.5 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 4.8 GPT-5.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Claude Opus 4.7 Claude Fable 5 Monthly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the monthly benchmark roster.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Claude Opus 4.7 Grok 4.5 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.5 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 7/7 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 7/7 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 7/7 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 7/7 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 7/7 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 7/7 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 7/7 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 Gemini 3.1 Pro Claude Opus 4.7 Grok 4.5 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.5 Monthly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the monthly benchmark roster.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 13/13 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 13/13 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 13/13 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 13/13 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 13/13 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 13/13 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro GPT-5.5 Claude Fable 5 Monthly comparison set that adds Claude Opus 4.8 to the established model roster.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model GPT-5.5 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 32/32 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 32/32 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 32/32 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 32/32 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 32/32 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro GPT-5.5 Original monthly comparison set for the first four CapitalBench models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model GPT-5.5 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 35/35 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 35/35 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 35/35 scored rounds GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 35/35 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Opus 4.7 Gemini 3.1 Pro GPT-5.5 Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 3 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Grok 4.5 Grok 4.6 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 5 Claude Fable 5.1 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 1/1 scored round Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 1/1 scored round Grok 4.5 xAI · 1/1 scored round Grok 4.6 xAI · 1/1 scored round GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 1/1 scored round Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro Grok 4.5 Grok 4.6 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 5 Claude Fable 5.1 Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 13 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Grok 4.5 Claude Opus 4.8 Grok 4.6 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Grok 4.3 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 3/3 scored rounds Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 3/3 scored rounds Grok 4.5 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 3/3 scored rounds Grok 4.6 xAI · 3/3 scored rounds Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Grok 4.3 Claude Fable 5 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Grok 4.5 Claude Opus 4.8 Grok 4.6 Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 3 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Claude Fable 5.1 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.6 Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro This model Grok 4.3 A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 1/1 scored round Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · 1/1 scored round Grok 4.6 xAI · 1/1 scored round Grok 4.5 xAI · 1/1 scored round Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 1/1 scored round Grok 4.3 xAI · 1/1 scored round Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Claude Fable 5.1 GPT-5.6 Sol Claude Opus 5 Grok 4.6 Grok 4.5 Gemini 3.1 Pro Grok 4.3 Findings tied directly to this model's decisions or completed results.
Using the latest available interim close, Gemini 3.1 Pro in CB-2026-10-10-1M is ahead of the S&P 500 by +7.62 percentage points, while Grok 4.5 in CB-2026-10-27-1M is at -6.41 percentage points.
Live alpha is interim model return minus interim S&P 500 return. It is provisional until the round reaches its official score date.
In the latest monthly result, US Dividend Equities contributed +3.40% to Gemini 3.1 Pro's portfolio. No holding detracted; the smallest positive contribution came from US Small-Cap Value at +0.50%.
Attribution multiplies each frozen holding's weight by its asset return to show what helped or hurt the model portfolio.
The model averaged -5.08% in down environments and -0.27% in up environments, a 4.8 percentage-point gap.
Market environments group resolved rounds by the S&P 500 return over the same weekly or monthly window. Models are compared only on shared rounds; high confidence requires at least six observations and stable leadership.
Open a row to see the full portfolio, rationale, and audit files.
The market is experiencing a pullback in technology and growth sectors, while energy and defensive sectors show strength. High dispersion suggests opportunities in mean reversion for oversold quality assets.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid services activity but downward payroll revisions and elevated inflation concerns noted in Fed minutes. The upcoming earnings season and CPI data will be key drivers.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent payroll growth and elevated inflation, while the Fed signals potential further rate hikes. The 1-week horizon suggests a cautious approach, balancing potential reversals in oversold sectors with defensive positioning.
The market is showing mixed signals with solid activity but elevated inflation, leading to expectations of further rate hikes. This environment favors defensive and quality assets while punishing highly volatile or rate-sensitive sectors.
The market is showing mixed signals with positive economic data (services and manufacturing PMIs above 50, positive GDP growth) but also signs of caution (downward employment revisions, elevated inflation, and cautious survey commentary). The divergence between large and small caps suggests a potential rotation or uncertainty.
The market shows mixed signals with positive GDP and consumption growth but cautious manufacturing and downward payroll revisions. Long Treasury yields are elevated, and there is a divergence between large and small caps.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with slower payroll growth and downward revisions contrasting with ongoing manufacturing expansion and positive real consumption growth. Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated above 5%.
The macro environment shows mixed signals with downward payroll revisions and cautious manufacturing commentary, offset by positive real consumption growth and ongoing manufacturing expansion. The Fed's recent 25 bps hike and long-term Treasury yields above 5% suggest a restrictive policy stance, creating a challenging environment for equities and favoring defensive or high-quality assets.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent declines in broad equities and commodities, while some sectors like semiconductors and biotech show short-term strength. The Fed's recent rate hike and upcoming employment data create uncertainty.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent broad declines across most sectors, while some technology and energy segments show short-term continuation. The Fed's recent rate hike to 3.75%-4.00% and resilient economic data suggest a higher-for-longer rate environment, pressuring rate-sensitive and cyclical assets.
The market is showing mixed signals with the S&P 500 up 1.2% but weaker breadth as equal-weight and small-cap indexes fell. The recent Fed rate hike to 3.75%-4.00% and upcoming economic data releases (JOLTS, GDP, ISM) suggest a cautious environment where defensive and quality assets might outperform.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent rate hikes and moderate economic growth.
The market is showing mixed signals with the S&P 500 slightly up while the Dow and Russell 2000 are down. Industrial production is flat, and the 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.00%.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent slight declines in major indices except Nasdaq, while industrial production is flat and the 10-year yield is at 5%.
The FOMC raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, citing solid economic expansion and elevated inflation. Retail sales and import/export prices showed strength. Equities have pulled back recently, while oil has rallied. The environment suggests a mix of rate-driven defensive positioning and potential reversals in oversold cyclical areas.
The FOMC raised rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% and noted resilient domestic spending and elevated inflation. The market is digesting this hawkish move alongside solid retail sales data, leading to a mixed environment where defensive and quality assets may outperform while highly rate-sensitive sectors face headwinds.
The market is facing a key FOMC decision with recent weakness in semiconductors and some commodities, while oil has surged on supply disruptions.
The market is facing uncertainty ahead of the FOMC decision, with recent broad equity declines and a sharp drop in semiconductors. Oil is surging due to a supply disruption, while crypto assets show mixed momentum.
The market is facing a mixed environment with upcoming FOMC meeting and retail sales data. Recent inflation data was slightly higher than expected, but consumer sentiment dipped. Oil prices are volatile due to geopolitical tensions.
The market is facing uncertainty ahead of the FOMC meeting, with mixed economic data and unresolved geopolitical tensions.
The market is experiencing a broad pullback, with the S&P 500 down 1.6% over the past week. Energy and commodities are showing strength, while most other sectors are declining. The upcoming CPI release and FOMC meeting introduce significant uncertainty.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with some sectors showing strength while others pull back. The ECB rate hike and upcoming US economic data releases add uncertainty.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent pullbacks in equities and strength in commodities like oil. Inflation data and upcoming central bank meetings are key drivers.
The market is showing mixed signals with moderate growth and inflation data. The Fed is holding rates steady, and energy prices are rising. We expect a continuation of current trends with some sector rotation.
The market is showing mixed signals with some recent pullbacks in technology and consumer discretionary, while energy and crypto assets have shown strength. The upcoming FOMC meeting and CPI data introduce uncertainty.
The market is experiencing mixed signals with moderate growth, elevated inflation, and uncertainty regarding the upcoming FOMC meeting.
The market is experiencing a slight pullback with mixed economic data, presenting opportunities in high-quality assets that have recently underperformed.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid GDP growth but softening labor data and persistent inflation concerns. The upcoming Fed meeting is a key catalyst, with markets pricing in a rate hike despite some signs of economic cooling.
The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The upcoming employment report and FOMC meeting add uncertainty.
The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The upcoming FOMC meeting and employment data will be key drivers.
The market is experiencing a broad pullback, with major indexes down for three consecutive days. Economic data is mixed, with manufacturing PMI down but still expanding, and job openings little changed. Inflation data shows moderate increases. The upcoming week has significant catalysts, including the ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI, and the August Employment Situation, which could drive volatility.
The market is experiencing a broad pullback with recent declines in major indexes, while energy prices have surged due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent pullbacks in several sectors despite a generally positive August. The upcoming employment data and FOMC meeting are key focal points.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals with steady inflation and a potential Fed rate cut in September. Tech earnings remain strong, but broader market breadth is weak.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid GDP growth but a slight contraction in payrolls and a downward benchmark revision. The Fed remains focused on inflation, which is still above target, suggesting rates will stay higher for longer. This environment favors defensive positioning and selective opportunities in sectors with strong fundamentals or recent overreactions.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid GDP growth but softening labor data and persistent inflation concerns. The upcoming FOMC meeting is a key catalyst.
The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The recent GDP and inflation data suggest a stable economic environment, but there are underlying concerns about specific sectors like energy and consumer discretionary.
The market is showing mixed signals with solid economic growth but elevated inflation, leading to a cautious stance from the Fed. Recent tech earnings (NVIDIA) were strong, but broader market participation is mixed.
The market is relatively flat with mixed signals. Inflation data is steady, and GDP growth is moderate. The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and payroll data could introduce volatility.
The market is showing mixed signals with a slight downward trend in recent days, but overall stability. The upcoming FOMC meeting and economic data releases will likely drive near-term volatility.
The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The upcoming Nvidia earnings and Jackson Hole symposium are key catalysts.
The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and employment data will be key drivers.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with some recent pullbacks in technology and momentum, while defensive and commodity sectors show relative strength. The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and semiconductor earnings are key catalysts.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent pullbacks in tech and small caps, while defensive and value sectors show some resilience. The Fed holding rates steady and mixed economic data suggest a cautious near-term outlook.
The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The upcoming NVIDIA earnings report is a significant catalyst for the technology sector.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent slight pullbacks in major indices but strong underlying economic data, such as the 52-month high in business activity. Inflation remains moderate, and the Fed is holding rates steady, suggesting a stable but cautious environment.
The market is experiencing a pullback with the S&P 500 down 1.9% for the week, driven by rising yields and uncertainty around inflation and Fed policy. The upcoming NVIDIA earnings report is a major catalyst for the tech sector.
The market is experiencing a pullback with the S&P 500 down 1.9% over the past week. Yields have risen slightly, and the Fed minutes indicate a cautious approach to inflation. The upcoming NVIDIA earnings report is a significant catalyst for the tech sector.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with some recent pullbacks in technology and international equities, while defensive and commodity sectors show some strength. The upcoming NVIDIA earnings and Jackson Hole symposium are key catalysts.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent volatility and a slight pullback in major indices, while inflation data remains somewhat sticky and the Fed maintains its current rate stance.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with some sectors showing continuation of recent trends while others are pulling back. The recent FOMC decision to maintain rates and the mixed economic data suggest a cautious approach.
The market is experiencing mixed signals with inflation remaining elevated but economic activity expanding at a solid pace. The recent pullback in some sectors presents potential reversal opportunities, while others may continue their trends.
The market is digesting mixed economic data, with inflation showing signs of cooling but labor and consumer data softening. This creates a mixed environment where defensive and quality assets may outperform.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with inflation moderating but labor market softening. The Fed held rates steady but acknowledged elevated inflation. This environment favors a balanced approach, with potential for defensive sectors and select growth areas to outperform.
The market is showing mixed signals with the S&P 500 near all-time highs but some underlying weakness in specific sectors and international markets. Inflation data is relatively benign, but retail sales and housing starts show some softness.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent inflation data coming in soft (CPI +0.1%, PPI unchanged) and retail sales falling 0.6%, suggesting a cooling economy. However, the S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high, and the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This environment favors a balanced approach, looking for opportunities in both defensive and cyclical sectors depending on specific asset dynamics.
A balanced approach utilizing energy momentum and healthcare defensiveness.
A balanced approach combining core US equities with defensive healthcare and inflation-hedging energy.
Defensive positioning with commodities.
Defensive positioning with commodities and healthcare to navigate geopolitical and inflation risks.
Defensive positioning with Gold and Healthcare to navigate mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty.
A balanced approach targeting high-quality growth sectors (Semiconductors, Biotech) while utilizing Gold as a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
100% allocation to SP500 due to uncertainty ahead of key economic data releases.
A balanced approach favoring broad market beta, technology, and healthcare.
A 100% SPY allocation is selected due to the lack of compelling active opportunities with a higher base forecast over the one-week scoring window.
A balanced approach favoring technology and industrials for growth, with gold and healthcare for defense.
The portfolio balances SP500 momentum with the safety of short-term Treasuries.
Overweight technology for growth, with energy and gold as geopolitical hedges.
A balanced approach combining core equities with commodities for potential upside and diversification.
Balanced approach with value and defensive tilts.
A balanced approach favoring technology and financials based on strong earnings and solid economic indicators.
A balanced approach combining core S&P 500 exposure with overweights in Financials and Healthcare to capture upside while mitigating volatility.
Defensive positioning with Consumer Staples and Healthcare.
Defensive positioning with a focus on dividend equities and healthcare.
Defensive allocation to Consumer Staples and Healthcare to navigate potential volatility from FOMC and tech earnings.
Allocated to Aerospace & Defense and Healthcare for defensive positioning and recent strength.
Balanced approach with defensive and cyclical tilts.
A balanced approach favoring healthcare, industrials, and gold for defensive growth and inflation protection.
An equal-weight allocation across four distinct sectors to navigate FOMC risks and mega-cap earnings.
A balanced approach utilizing SP500 for core exposure, Energy for momentum, and Healthcare for defense.
Overweight energy and gold to capture momentum and hedge against volatility, balanced with core equity exposure.
Overweight energy and oil due to tight supplies and rising prices. Include gold as an inflation hedge and maintain a core S&P 500 position.
Overweight Energy and Communications based on positive catalysts and momentum.
Balanced approach using Energy for growth and Dividend for defense.
Equal allocation to oil and gold for momentum and hedging.
Overweight energy and healthcare to balance cyclical upside with defensive stability.
Overweight energy and small value based on recent momentum and geopolitical factors, with gold as a hedge.
Overweight energy and oil for momentum, balanced with regional banks and consumer staples for relative strength.
Overweight energy and financials for growth, with healthcare for defense.
Allocations focus on the acute geopolitical risks in the Middle East driving oil and defense, balanced with a tactical play on semiconductor earnings.
Allocations focus on the immediate impact of the Middle East conflict on oil prices and defense spending, with gold as a safe-haven hedge.
Allocating to OIL and ENERGY to capitalize on the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Adding FINANCIALS and SEMICONDUCTORS based on strong recent corporate results.
Overweighting financials and semiconductors based on strong recent earnings and revenue data, while heavily allocating to energy and oil to profit from the escalating military situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
Allocating to oil, energy, and defense to capture the upside from the Strait of Hormuz blockade and rising geopolitical tensions.
Overweight oil, energy, defense, and gold to profit from the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz blockade.
Overweighting semiconductors and related Asian markets to capture potential upside from TSMC's earnings and ongoing AI hardware demand.
Allocating to semiconductors, South Korea, and Taiwan based on strong AI demand and positive catalysts from key industry players.
Allocated to Semiconductors and Technology for AI-driven momentum and TSMC catalysts, and Financials for upcoming major bank earnings.
Allocating to semiconductors for AI growth, aerospace and energy for geopolitical hedges, and short-term treasuries for stability.
Overweighting oil and energy due to geopolitical catalysts, with a tactical allocation to financials ahead of key bank earnings.
Allocating to energy and oil to capitalize on geopolitical catalysts, while using healthcare and short treasuries for defensive stability.
Overweight energy and oil due to geopolitical catalysts, balanced with defensive healthcare exposure.
Allocates to SP500 for core exposure, Energy for geopolitical catalysts, Financials for upcoming earnings, and Healthcare for defense.
Overweighting semiconductors and AI-related technology based on strong corporate catalysts from TSMC, Tesla, Broadcom, and TeraWulf.
Allocating to semiconductors and financials based on upcoming earnings catalysts, balanced with small caps for broader market exposure.
A balanced approach combining broad US equities, defensive sectors (Healthcare), potential beneficiaries of the rate environment (Financials), and a cash-like buffer (Short-Term Treasuries).
A balanced approach combining broad US equities, defensive sectors (healthcare), interest-rate sensitive sectors (financials), and short-term treasuries for stability.
A balanced approach utilizing broad US equities, defensive healthcare, and short-term Treasuries to navigate potential short-term volatility.
A balanced approach favoring broad US equities, defensive sectors like healthcare, and financials, with a cash-like buffer.
Allocating to high-momentum sectors (Semiconductors, Nasdaq 100) and strong-performing small caps to maximize short-term returns.
Overweight semiconductors and small caps for momentum and catalysts, balanced with defensive healthcare.
Overweighting semiconductors and communications based on strong corporate earnings and index inclusion catalysts, balanced with broad market exposure.
Overweighting semiconductors and technology based on strong earnings and AI demand, with tactical allocations to communications and consumer discretionary.
Overweighting healthcare and biotech based on positive regulatory news, while adding regional banks for diversification away from tech.
Overweight healthcare and biotech due to positive regulatory news. Diversify with small caps and equal-weight S&P 500 to mitigate mega-cap tech concentration risk.
Allocating to semiconductors based on Micron's strong earnings and guidance, balanced with defensive healthcare exposure.
Overweighting semiconductors and tech based on strong Micron earnings and guidance, balanced with equal-weight broad market exposure.
Overweighting semiconductors based on a specific positive catalyst (Micron earnings), balanced with small caps and regional banks for diversification and momentum.
Overweighting semiconductors based on strong Micron earnings and guidance, balanced with small caps for market broadening and healthcare for defensive positioning.
Allocating to Biotech, Regional Banks, and Small Caps based on their positive 7-day and 30-day returns, aiming to capture short-term momentum and relative strength against the S&P 500.
A balanced approach combining broad market equity with defensive sectors and safe-haven assets to navigate potential short-term volatility.
Allocating to high-momentum sectors (Semiconductors, Biotech) and regions (Taiwan, South Korea) to capitalize on strong recent trends over a one-week horizon.
A balanced approach favoring US equities with a mix of growth, value, and defensive sectors.
Overweighting high-momentum tech and semiconductors while maintaining a core S&P 500 position.
Overweighting technology and semiconductors to capture ongoing momentum, anchored by a core S&P 500 position.
Allocating to high-momentum sectors and regions, particularly semiconductors and South Korea, to capture ongoing trends over the one-week horizon.
Overweight technology and semiconductors to capture AI momentum.
Overweighting tech and semiconductor momentum ahead of the FOMC meeting, anticipating that a neutral Fed will allow the current growth trend to persist.
Overweighting high-momentum sectors like semiconductors and technology, along with South Korea, to capture ongoing market trends and maximize one-month relative returns.
Overweighting high-beta tech and momentum to ride the current market trend into the FOMC meeting.
Overweight US tech and semiconductors for momentum and growth, balanced with broad market exposure and a small gold hedge.
Balanced portfolio with equity and short-duration fixed income.
This portfolio balances potential equity upside with a defensive cash-like allocation.
Overweight growth sectors ahead of a likely neutral FOMC decision, balanced with broad market exposure.
Overweighting technology and energy to capture growth and commodity price tailwinds.
Defensive positioning ahead of CPI/PPI releases, favoring sectors with recent positive momentum.
A defensive allocation favoring short-term Treasuries, gold, and defensive equities to navigate a slowing economy with sticky inflation.
A defensive allocation favoring short-term Treasuries, Healthcare, and Energy to navigate potential volatility from upcoming inflation data.
A balanced approach combining broad US equities, growth sectors, and defensive assets to navigate market uncertainties.
A defensive allocation favoring short-term Treasuries, Healthcare, and Energy to navigate potential volatility from upcoming inflation data.
A balanced approach combining growth-oriented equities with defensive assets like healthcare, Treasuries, and gold to navigate market uncertainties.
Overweighting high-momentum tech and AI-adjacent themes to maximize short-term relative returns against the S&P 500.
Overweighting technology and AI-related sectors due to strong momentum and massive projected capital expenditures.
Allocation prioritizes assets with the highest 7-day and 30-day trailing returns to capture ongoing momentum in the technology and semiconductor-adjacent sectors.
Overweighting technology and semiconductors against a core S&P 500 holding to capture AI-driven growth and momentum.
Overweighting high-momentum tech and AI sectors to maximize short-term returns.
Allocates heavily to semiconductors, AI technology, South Korea, and solar to capitalize on extreme short-term price momentum and strong underlying thematic fundamentals.
Overweighting high-momentum technology and semiconductor sectors to maximize short-term relative returns against the S&P 500.
Overweighting AI, semiconductors, and related export markets to capitalize on massive projected infrastructure spending and strong trend persistence.
Overweighting technology and momentum to capture ongoing AI-driven strength.
Allocating to high-momentum technology and semiconductor assets, along with heavily correlated Asian markets (South Korea and Taiwan), to capture the ongoing AI infrastructure boom.
Allocating to high-momentum tech and semiconductor sectors to maximize short-term returns driven by AI investment themes.
Overweight semiconductors and Taiwan to capture AI momentum following Nvidia's earnings, balanced with utilities to capture M&A catalysts.
Overweight technology and semiconductors based on strong earnings and momentum, with a small cash buffer.
A balanced approach targeting high-growth sectors like energy and semiconductors while maintaining defensive positions in gold and short-term treasuries to mitigate risks from inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Semiconductors have exhibited exceptional momentum, returning over 29% in the last 30 days and 58% over the last 6 months. Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the sector's strong trend and potential AI-driven earnings growth make it a compelling candidate for continued outperformance over a one-month horizon.