Anthropic
Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.8

anthropic-claude-opus-4-8

Portfolio pattern Balanced allocator Shows a mixed profile without one dominant allocation behavior standing out yet.
Live portfolios WeeklyMonthly First run 2026-05-28
Live portfolios 25 25 open rounds
Completed rounds 37 scored rounds
Beat S&P 500 37.8% all completed tracks
Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.50 pp completed average
Portfolio pattern

How Does This Model Tend To Invest?

Calculated from every official saved portfolio, including open and completed rounds.

Saved portfolios 62
Average holdings 5.0
Average largest position 29.3%
Most common top holding Semiconductors (SMH)
Typical approach Balanced allocator

Shows a mixed profile without one dominant allocation behavior standing out yet.

Based on 62 saved portfolios.
Risk taking 71.3 / 100 0 defensive to 100 aggressive
Typical largest position 29.3% average top holding
Similarity to peers 59.2% closest to Claude Opus 4.7
Portfolio turnover 47.0% average change between rounds
Compared with other models

Most similar to Claude Opus 4.7

Average portfolio overlap is 59.2% on matching rounds. It made an unusually different allocation in 8 rounds.

Compare every model's pattern
Overall risk appetite

Growth

Usually favors equities, sectors, or thematic growth exposure.

3.78 / 5 allocation-weighted score
Claude Opus 4.83.78
57.8% high-risk exposure 24.6% technology exposure 11.5% defensive holdings
Most frequently held assets
Healthcare Sector (XLV)US Sector 54.8% held 12.8% avg
Semiconductors (SMH)AI and Technology 51.6% held 14.5% avg
Financials Sector (XLF)US Sector 46.8% held 10.9% avg
Industrials Sector (XLI)US Sector 38.7% held 7.0% avg
S&P 500 (SPY)US Broad Market 29.0% held 6.0% avg
Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)Cash and Short Duration 29.0% held 4.0% avg
US Momentum Equities (MTUM)US Factor Equity 27.4% held 5.6% avg
Average allocation by category
US Sector40.9%
AI and Technology16.5%
US Factor Equity10.2%
US Broad Market8.1%
US Industry5.2%
Country Equity5.1%
Cash and Short Duration4.0%
Current portfolios

What Is This Model Holding Now?

25 open portfolios across weekly and monthly tests. Completed rounds are excluded.

Weekly5 open portfolios
13 assets
Completed rounds are excluded from this live view.Next scoring target: 2026-07-16
Still in progress

How Are Its Open Portfolios Doing?

Latest available close for live rounds only. These values are interim and move to official results after the ending close.

Weekly live
Portfolio
-0.73%
S&P 500
+0.39%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500
-1.11 pp
4 open tests
Monthly live
Portfolio
-1.24%
S&P 500
+1.41%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500
-2.66 pp
19 open tests
See all 23 open round returns
CB-2026-07-14-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.15% S&P 500 +0.40% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.55 pp CB-2026-07-13-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.56% S&P 500 +0.75% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.31 pp CB-2026-07-10-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -1.21% S&P 500 -0.02% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.19 pp CB-2026-07-09-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.68% S&P 500 +0.41% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.09 pp CB-2026-07-08-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.24% S&P 500 +1.26% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.51 pp CB-2026-07-07-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.92% S&P 500 +0.95% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.87 pp CB-2026-07-06-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -1.62% S&P 500 +0.47% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.09 pp CB-2026-07-02-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -1.10% S&P 500 +1.35% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.44 pp CB-2026-07-01-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.18% S&P 500 +1.21% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.04 pp CB-2026-06-30-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.56% S&P 500 +1.08% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.52 pp CB-2026-06-29-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.89% S&P 500 +1.86% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.76 pp CB-2026-06-26-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.83% S&P 500 +3.54% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.71 pp CB-2026-06-25-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.55% S&P 500 +2.79% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -3.34 pp CB-2026-06-24-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.86% S&P 500 +2.94% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.09 pp CB-2026-06-23-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.64% S&P 500 +2.89% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -3.53 pp CB-2026-06-22-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -5.88% S&P 500 +1.40% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -7.28 pp CB-2026-07-14-1W weekly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.24% S&P 500 +0.40% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.16 pp CB-2026-07-13-1W weekly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.63% S&P 500 +0.75% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.39 pp CB-2026-06-18-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -3.04% S&P 500 +1.08% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -4.12 pp CB-2026-07-10-1W weekly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -1.49% S&P 500 -0.02% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.47 pp CB-2026-06-17-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -2.87% S&P 500 +1.87% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -4.74 pp CB-2026-07-09-1W weekly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -1.01% S&P 500 +0.41% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.43 pp CB-2026-06-16-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -5.69% S&P 500 +0.60% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -6.29 pp
Completed results

How Has This Model Performed?

Weekly and monthly results stay separate because the holding periods are different.

Weekly record

8 wins / 26 completed

Avg return -0.45%
S&P 500 +0.05%
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.49 pp
Hit rate 34.6%
Avg rank 2.7
Best round CB-2026-06-13-1W
Monthly record

3 wins / 11 completed

Avg return -0.61%
S&P 500 -0.10%
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.51 pp
Hit rate 45.5%
Avg rank 2.3
Best round CB-2026-05-28-1M
Round by round

When Did It Beat The S&P 500?

Bars to the right beat the S&P 500. Bars to the left trailed it.

CB-2026-05-28-1Mmonthly / rank 2 of 5 +3.25 pp CB-2026-05-28-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 5 +3.25 pp CB-2026-06-01-1Mmonthly / rank 1 of 5 +3.16 pp CB-2026-05-29-1Mmonthly / rank 1 of 5 +1.68 pp CB-2026-06-01-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 -1.88 pp CB-2026-05-29-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 -2.06 pp CB-2026-06-02-1Mmonthly / rank 4 of 5 -0.98 pp CB-2026-06-02-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 -0.72 pp CB-2026-06-03-1Mmonthly / rank 2 of 5 -3.87 pp CB-2026-06-03-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 -4.21 pp CB-2026-06-05-1Mmonthly / rank 4 of 5 -0.51 pp CB-2026-06-05-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 5 +0.29 pp CB-2026-06-08-1Mmonthly / rank 2 of 5 +1.70 pp CB-2026-06-08-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 5 -1.96 pp CB-2026-06-09-1Mmonthly / rank 1 of 6 +0.85 pp CB-2026-06-09-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 6 -1.47 pp CB-2026-06-12-1Mmonthly / rank 2 of 6 -1.13 pp CB-2026-06-12-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 6 -2.46 pp CB-2026-06-13-1Mmonthly / rank 3 of 5 -3.60 pp CB-2026-06-13-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 6 +3.87 pp CB-2026-06-15-1Mmonthly / rank 3 of 5 -6.14 pp CB-2026-06-15-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 5 +3.25 pp CB-2026-06-16-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 5 +0.78 pp CB-2026-06-17-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 5 -0.18 pp CB-2026-06-18-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 -0.50 pp CB-2026-06-22-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 -1.01 pp CB-2026-06-23-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 5 +1.62 pp CB-2026-06-24-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 +0.57 pp CB-2026-06-25-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 5 +1.34 pp CB-2026-06-26-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 5 -1.33 pp CB-2026-06-29-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 -1.12 pp CB-2026-06-30-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 5 -3.27 pp CB-2026-07-01-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 6 +0.45 pp CB-2026-07-02-1Wweekly / rank 4 of 6 -1.60 pp CB-2026-07-06-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 6 -1.79 pp CB-2026-07-07-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 6 -1.76 pp CB-2026-07-08-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 7 -0.87 pp
Ranking context

Where Does It Rank Against Comparable Models?

Each group uses only rounds completed by every included model.

See every comparison group 8
Weekly · Current

Jun 9, 2026 roster

Weekly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.

Open full set
#5 Rank in set 0.6 CapitalBench Score 0.49% Total return 8 Shared rounds

Current Weekly Benchmark

CapitalBench Score

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

GPT-5.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Grok 4.3
Claude Fable 5
Claude Opus 4.8 This model
Claude Opus 4.7
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 8/8 scored rounds
12.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 8/8 scored rounds
10.2
Grok 4.3 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds
5.3
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
5.1
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
0.6
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
-0.2
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 8/8 scored rounds
7.6
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
8 shared resolved rounds6 equal-run models rankedQualified at 6+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-07-08-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

OpenAI GPT-5.5
1.25%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
1.03%
xAI Grok 4.3
0.54%
Anthropic Claude Fable 5
0.52%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8
0.06%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
-0.02%
S&P S&P 500
0.76%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
10.07%
Excluded for fairness: CB-2026-06-15-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-16-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-17-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-18-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-22-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-23-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-24-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-25-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-26-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-29-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-30-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5 Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone.
Model-specific findings

What Has CapitalBench Learned About Claude Opus 4.8?

Findings tied directly to this model's decisions or completed results.

Market EnvironmentAs of Jul 15
Weekly market environments14 resolved rounds2 models

Weekly model leadership changes with the S&P 500 environment

Claude Opus 4.8 leads down environments at -2.70% across 8 tests; GPT-5.5 leads up environments at +2.35% across 6 tests.

Market environments group resolved rounds by the S&P 500 return over the same weekly or monthly window. Models are compared only on shared rounds; high confidence requires at least six observations and stable leadership.

Medium confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 15, 2026
Down Leader Average Return
-2.70%
Down Shared Rounds
8
Down Leader Stability
0.88
Market EnvironmentAs of Jul 15
Weekly down environments8 resolved rounds1 model

Claude Opus 4.8 leads when the S&P 500 is negative

The model averaged -2.70% across 8 shared-cohort rounds drawn from 8 resolved weekly down environments. The sample meets publication thresholds.

Market environments group resolved rounds by the S&P 500 return over the same weekly or monthly window. Models are compared only on shared rounds; high confidence requires at least six observations and stable leadership.

Medium confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 15, 2026
Average Model Return
-2.70%
Average S&P 500 Return
-2.01%
Capitalbench Score
-46.9
Market EnvironmentAs of Jul 15
Weekly environment consistency19 resolved rounds1 model

Claude Opus 4.8 has the strongest weekly score floor

Its lowest CapitalBench Score across 3 tested market directions is -46.9, with at least 5 model observations in each included direction.

Market environments group resolved rounds by the S&P 500 return over the same weekly or monthly window. Models are compared only on shared rounds; high confidence requires at least six observations and stable leadership.

Medium confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 15, 2026
Score Floor
-46.9
Average Model Return
-0.96%
Directions Covered
3
Decision history

What Did It Choose In Each Round?

Open a row to see the full portfolio, rationale, and audit files.

Round Track Window Portfolio Result
CB-2026-07-15-1W official-20260715 weekly 2026-07-15 to 2026-07-22 ENERGY 30.0%FINANCIALS 25.0%SP500 25.0%REGIONAL_BANKS 10.0%OIL 10.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Energy Sector (XLE) 30.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 25.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 25.0% Regional Banks (KRE) 10.0% Crude Oil (USO) 10.0%
Rationale

Geopolitical oil catalyst plus strong financials earnings momentum with a broad-market core, balancing upside against a rapidly changing military situation.

CB-2026-07-15-1M official-20260715 monthly 2026-07-15 to 2026-08-14 FINANCIALS 30.0%ENERGY 20.0%LARGE_VALUE 20.0%EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 15.0%HEALTHCARE 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Financials Sector (XLF) 30.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 20.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 20.0% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 15.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 15.0%
Rationale

Overweight financials on earnings momentum, energy on Hormuz supply risk, and value/equal-weight on rotation, balanced by defensive healthcare.

CB-2026-07-14-1W official-20260714 weekly 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-21 FINANCIALS 30.0%ENERGY 25.0%SP500 20.0%OIL 15.0%HEALTHCARE 10.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Financials Sector (XLF) 30.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 25.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 20.0% Crude Oil (USO) 15.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 10.0%
Rationale

Bank earnings strength and geopolitical oil supply risk are the clearest near-term catalysts before the exit close, balanced with core equity beta.

CB-2026-07-14-1M official-20260714 monthly 2026-07-14 to 2026-08-14 FINANCIALS 35.0%ENERGY 20.0%CYBERSECURITY 15.0%INDUSTRIALS 15.0%SP500 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Financials Sector (XLF) 35.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 20.0% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 15.0% Industrials Sector (XLI) 15.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 15.0%
Rationale

Tilt toward earnings-confirmed strength (financials), geopolitical energy tailwinds, and lower-vol momentum sectors while anchoring to the benchmark.

CB-2026-07-13-1W official-20260713 weekly 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-20 ENERGY 30.0%HEALTHCARE 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%US_DOLLAR 15.0%UTILITIES 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Energy Sector (XLE) 30.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% US Dollar (UUP) 15.0% Utilities Sector (XLU) 15.0%
Rationale

Overweight energy on Hormuz blockade catalyst, balanced with low-beta defensives (healthcare, utilities), financials for earnings, and dollar hedge.

CB-2026-07-13-1M official-20260713 monthly 2026-07-13 to 2026-08-13 ENERGY 25.0%HEALTHCARE 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%LOW_VOL 20.0%SHORT_TREASURY 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Energy Sector (XLE) 25.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) 20.0% Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) 15.0%
Rationale

Defensive rotation into energy, healthcare, financials, low-vol equity plus short-duration Treasuries to capture geopolitical/oil upside while limiting exposure to the fading tech/growth leadership.

CB-2026-07-10-1W official-20260710 weekly 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-17 SEMICONDUCTORS 30.0%TAIWAN 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%SP500 20.0%INDUSTRIALS 10.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 30.0% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 20.0% Industrials Sector (XLI) 10.0%
Rationale

Overweight AI-semiconductor complex and financials into concrete earnings catalysts, balanced by broad-market and industrial cyclical exposure.

CB-2026-07-10-1M official-20260710 monthly 2026-07-10 to 2026-08-10 SEMICONDUCTORS 30.0%FINANCIALS 25.0%INDUSTRIALS 20.0%TAIWAN 15.0%CYBERSECURITY 10.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 30.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 25.0% Industrials Sector (XLI) 20.0% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 15.0% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10.0%
Rationale

Tilt toward semiconductors and financials with earnings catalysts inside the window, supplemented by industrials breadth and cybersecurity momentum.

CB-2026-07-09-1W official-20260709 weekly 2026-07-09 to 2026-07-16 SEMICONDUCTORS 30.0%FINANCIALS 25.0%NASDAQ100 20.0%HEALTHCARE 15.0%CYBERSECURITY 10.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 30.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 25.0% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 20.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 15.0% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10.0%
Rationale

Concentrate in catalyst-rich, momentum-supported equity areas with a defensive healthcare buffer to outperform SPY over the one-week window.

CB-2026-07-09-1M official-20260709 monthly 2026-07-09 to 2026-08-07 FINANCIALS 25.0%HEALTHCARE 20.0%SEMICONDUCTORS 20.0%SP500 20.0%CYBERSECURITY 15.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Financials Sector (XLF) 25.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20.0% Semiconductors (SMH) 20.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 20.0% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 15.0%
Rationale

Concentrate in recent relative leaders with fundamental/catalyst support while keeping a broad-market core to limit downside versus SPY.

Audit and data Public Audit Packets For This Model