AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Risk-seeking 70.8/100 As of September 28, 2026. Inflation-sensitive risk taking Model Agreement Tight 3.8 point dispersion Insight Models found the monthly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Semiconductors (SMH) at +9.41%. 2 of 7 models held it, with +10.00% average allocation. The largest allocation came from Claude Fable 5 at +35.00%. Crowded Position S&P 500 26.2% 6 models hold SPY Biggest Shift Energy Sector up 25.0 pp vs prior weekly round Open Portfolio Leader Claude Fable 5.1 currently leads at 0.8% interim result, not yet scored Latest Weekly Grok 4.5 led -0.8% vs S&P -1.0% Full Weekly History Grok 4.5 leads score 6.0 across 45/72
Data Prices Sep 29 148/148 audited
Live dashboard

Live Positions & Returns

Open CapitalBench rounds before final scoring. This page shows frozen model portfolios, current exposure, mark-to-market returns, and the score dates still waiting on final closing prices.

Open live positions See mark-to-market returns Review open tests
Open monthly rounds 12 12 waiting for results
Open weekly rounds 1 1 waiting for results
Frozen live portfolios 91 24 assets currently held
Current risk appetite 70.8/100 As of September 28, 2026 / Risk-seeking
Live tests

Mark-To-Market Portfolio Returns

Open rounds priced to the latest available close. These are interim portfolio returns, not official benchmark scores.

Official results
Live tests

Live Portfolio Returns

Live rounds marked to the latest available close. These are not final scores.

Priced live rounds13 of 13
Latest closeSep 29
Next final scoreOct 2
Claude Fable 5.1Anthropic / 11 open
Portfolio+0.83%S&P 500-0.18%Portfolio Minus S&P 500+1.02%
GPT-6 AstraOpenAI / 10 open
Portfolio+0.37%S&P 500-0.12%Portfolio Minus S&P 500+0.50%
Claude Opus 5Anthropic / 11 open
Portfolio-0.19%S&P 500-0.13%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-0.06%
Grok 4.6xAI / 13 open
Portfolio-0.80%S&P 500-0.25%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-0.55%
Grok 4.3xAI / 13 open
Portfolio-0.88%S&P 500-0.25%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-0.63%
Claude Opus 5 5Anthropic / 2 open
Portfolio-0.91%S&P 500-0.93%Portfolio Minus S&P 500+0.02%
Grok 4.5xAI / 13 open
Portfolio-1.47%S&P 500-0.25%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-1.22%
GPT-5.6 SolOpenAI / 3 open
Portfolio-1.55%S&P 500-0.69%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-0.86%
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle / 13 open
Portfolio-2.42%S&P 500-0.25%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-2.17%
Claude Fable 5Anthropic / 2 open
Portfolio-5.98%S&P 500-0.64%Portfolio Minus S&P 500-5.34%
S&P 50013 open tests
S&P 500 return-0.25%CloseSep 29

Interim returns use live rounds only. Completed rounds move to official scored results.

Marked to market from saved entry prices. Official results wait for the scheduled ending close.
Live positions

Current Frozen Model Portfolios

Current asset and model exposure across unresolved monthly and weekly rounds, with each frozen portfolio shown below.

Model profiles
Scope
View
All Open portfolios only
Live AI positioning

S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest live allocation.

26.2% points to S&P 500 (SPY), while US Equity accounts for 78.2% of open portfolios.

Largest assetS&P 500 (SPY)26.2%
Lead categoryUS Equity78.2%
Live rounds13All Open
Portfolios9124 assets held
Category mixClick a category to focus the pick list
Top allocationsAssets with the largest live model allocation
24 assets
14 smaller live allocations13.9%
Monthly model portfolios

CB-2026-09-28-1M

2026-09-28 to 2026-10-28

Waiting for result
Anthropic Claude Fable 5.1
Biotechnology (XBI) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 65%
Anthropic Claude Opus 5 5
S&P 500 (SPY) 100%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
Metals and Mining (XME) 35% Solar Energy (TAN) 35% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 30%
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
Financials Sector (XLF) 35% Biotechnology (XBI) 35% Metals and Mining (XME) 30%
xAI Grok 4.3
S&P 500 (SPY) 100%
xAI Grok 4.5
Biotechnology (XBI) 35% US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) 35% Financials Sector (XLF) 30%
xAI Grok 4.6
S&P 500 (SPY) 100%
Shared top pick S&P 500 (SPY) Average across 7 frozen model portfolios.
Top 3 76.4% Spread 3.1 assets
S&P 500 (SPY) 52.1%
Biotechnology (XBI) 15%
Financials Sector (XLF) 9.3%
Metals and Mining (XME) 9.3%
Monthly Scores Audit packet
Weekly model portfolios

CB-2026-09-28-1W

2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05

Waiting for result
Anthropic Claude Fable 5.1
Energy Sector (XLE) 35% Crude Oil (USO) 35% Broad Commodities (PDBC) 30%
Anthropic Claude Opus 5 5
Energy Sector (XLE) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 65%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
Utilities Sector (XLU) 35% Silver (SLV) 35% Solar Energy (TAN) 30%
OpenAI GPT-6 Astra
Energy Sector (XLE) 35% Broad Commodities (PDBC) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%
xAI Grok 4.3
Crude Oil (USO) 35% Energy Sector (XLE) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%
xAI Grok 4.5
Energy Sector (XLE) 35% Crude Oil (USO) 35% Brazil Equities (EWZ) 30%
xAI Grok 4.6
S&P 500 (SPY) 100%
Shared top pick S&P 500 (SPY) Average across 7 frozen model portfolios.
Top 3 72.1% Spread 4.9 assets
S&P 500 (SPY) 32.1%
Energy Sector (XLE) 25%
Crude Oil (USO) 15%
Broad Commodities (PDBC) 9.3%
Weekly Scores Audit packet
Current allocation signal

AI Risk Appetite

Latest monthly and weekly portfolios, equal-weighted by track. This measures current model positioning, not market returns or a trading recommendation.

Historical trend and methodology
Current risk appetite 70.8/100 As of September 28, 2026 / Risk-seeking
As of September 28, 2026 Inflation-sensitive risk taking CB-2026-09-28-1M and CB-2026-09-28-1W
Monthly strategic 75.0/100 As of September 28, 2026 / Risk-seeking
Weekly tactical 66.7/100 As of September 28, 2026 / Risk-seeking
Change -6.0 Change vs Sep 21 portfolios
Model agreement Tight 3.8 point dispersion
Largest current allocations
S&P 500 (SPY) 42.1% Energy Sector (XLE) 12.5% Biotechnology (XBI) 7.5% Crude Oil (USO) 7.5% Broad Commodities (PDBC) 4.6% Financials Sector (XLF) 4.6%
Regime mix
Broad and cyclical equity 51.4% Real assets and inflation 31.8% Growth and technology 12.1% Defensive equity 2.5% International equity 2.1%
Model live holdings

Open Portfolios By Model

A compact readout of each model's unresolved CapitalBench exposure. Open the model profile for the full holdings breakdown.

Grok 4.3 xAI Top live holding S&P 500 (SPY) 52.7% across 13 open portfolios Top 3 73.5% Next score Oct 2 Grok 4.6 xAI Top live holding S&P 500 (SPY) 48.1% across 13 open portfolios Top 3 71.9% Next score Oct 2 Gemini 3.1 Pro Google Top live holding Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 20.8% across 13 open portfolios Top 3 46.5% Next score Oct 2 Grok 4.5 xAI Top live holding Cybersecurity (CIBR) 15.8% across 13 open portfolios Top 3 44.2% Next score Oct 2 Claude Opus 5 Anthropic Top live holding S&P 500 (SPY) 19.5% across 11 open portfolios Top 3 57.3% Next score Oct 2 Claude Fable 5.1 Anthropic Top live holding S&P 500 (SPY) 31.4% across 11 open portfolios Top 3 56.4% Next score Oct 5 GPT-6 Astra OpenAI Top live holding S&P 500 (SPY) 34.5% across 10 open portfolios Top 3 55.5% Next score Oct 5 GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI Top live holding Regional Banks (KRE) 33.3% across 3 open portfolios Top 3 76.7% Next score Oct 2 Claude Opus 5 5 Anthropic Top live holding S&P 500 (SPY) 82.5% across 2 open portfolios Top 3 100.0% Next score Oct 5 Claude Fable 5 Anthropic Top live holding Regional Banks (KRE) 35.0% across 2 open portfolios Top 3 70.0% Next score Oct 2
Open tests

Live Monthly And Weekly Tests

These are the open tests you can inspect now. Models already submitted portfolios; official scores wait for final closing prices.

Monthly test

One-month test

Live now

Longer test of AI allocation over one month.

Portfolios locked; scoring pending.

Model portfolios 7 Eligible assets 70 Risk-taking score 75.0/100 Top consensus S&P 500 (SPY) 52.1% average weight
Live positions Asset universe Audit packet
Weekly test

One-week test

Live now

Short-term test of AI positioning over one market week.

Portfolios locked; scoring pending.

Model portfolios 7 Eligible assets 70 Risk-taking score 66.7/100 Top consensus S&P 500 (SPY) 32.1% average weight
Live positions Asset universe Audit packet

Internal IDs and full reproducibility files are inside each audit packet.

Scoring calendar

Current Scoring Calendar

Models have already picked portfolios. Official scores publish only after the market window ends and final closing prices are available.

148 official rounds recorded Internal round and run IDs stay in the public audit trail.
View audit trail
Live data is interim.

Positions are frozen model outputs from open rounds. Returns are marked to the latest available close. Official benchmark scores publish only after the scheduled ending close is collected.