xAI
xAI

Grok 4.5

xai-grok-4-5

Live portfolios WeeklyMonthly First run 2026-07-08
Live portfolios 2 2 open rounds
Completed rounds 0 scored rounds
Beat S&P 500 n/a all completed tracks
Portfolio Minus S&P 500 n/a completed average
Model insights

What The Benchmark Flags For Grok 4.5

Behavior and performance notes connected to this model, with fallback context from model-behavior and attribution signals.

Model BehaviorJul 8-Aug 7
Monthly live roundCB-2026-07-08-1M7 modelsLive portfolios

Monthly models are leaning into recent winners

The newest monthly portfolios allocate +77.86% to the top 20% of assets by prior 30-day return. The strongest 30-day asset in the input table was Biotechnology (XBI).

Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 8, 2026
Allocation To Top 30d Momentum Quintile
+77.9%
Allocation To Bottom 30d Momentum Quintile
+15.0%
Why it matters

This measures whether models are chasing recent momentum or allocating away from it before outcomes are known.

Model BehaviorJul 8-Jul 15
Weekly live roundCB-2026-07-08-1W7 modelsLive portfolios

Weekly models are leaning into recent winners

The newest weekly portfolios allocate +56.43% to the top 20% of assets by prior 30-day return. The strongest 30-day asset in the input table was Biotechnology (XBI).

Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 8, 2026
Allocation To Top 30d Momentum Quintile
+56.4%
Allocation To Bottom 30d Momentum Quintile
+39.3%
Why it matters

This measures whether models are chasing recent momentum or allocating away from it before outcomes are known.

Model SimilarityAs of Jul 8
Latest live portfolios2 live rounds14 modelsLive portfolios

Live model portfolios are tightly clustered

The closest live allocation pair is Claude Opus 4.7 and Claude Opus 4.8 with +94.56% cosine similarity. The current allocation outlier is GPT-5.5.

Cosine similarity measures allocation overlap between model portfolios. A value near 1.00 means the weights are very similar.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 8, 2026
Closest Pair Cosine Similarity
0.95
Outlier Average Distance
0.52
Why it matters

Similarity analysis shows whether models are independently converging on the same portfolio or expressing meaningfully different capital-allocation behavior.

Behavior vs peers

Early sample

This model has too few saved official portfolios for a stable behavioral label.

Risk-taking score 72.9 / 100 0 defensive to 100 aggressive
Average top holding 32.5% concentration of the largest position
Peer overlap 60.0% closest to GPT-5.5
Average turnover n/a round-to-round portfolio change
Peer-relative read

Closest behavior match: GPT-5.5

Average peer overlap is 60.0% across matching official rounds. It has not been a repeated allocation outlier by the current rule.

High-risk exposure
80.0%
Defensive exposure
0.00%
Tech exposure
27.5%
Live risk change
n/a
Most used assets
Biotechnology (XBI) healthcare and biotech 27.5%
Energy Sector (XLE) us sector 20.0%
Financials Sector (XLF) us sector 17.5%
Crude Oil (USO) commodities 15.0%
US Large-Cap Value (IWD) us style factor 10.0%
Healthcare Sector (XLV) us sector 10.0%
Current live holdings

Open Portfolios Waiting For Scores

Completed rounds are excluded here, so this view shows only the model's still-open weekly and monthly portfolios.

All Live2 open portfolios
6 assets
Completed rounds are excluded from this live view.Next scoring target: 2026-07-15
Live mark-to-market

Current Return Before Final Scores

Latest available close for live rounds only. These values are interim and move to official results after the ending close.

No live price snapshot yet. Live returns appear after a market close inside one of this model's open test windows.
Scored record

Weekly And Monthly Results Stay Separate

Weekly record

No completed rounds

Avg return n/a
S&P 500 n/a
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 n/a
Hit rate n/a
Avg rank n/a
Best round n/a
Monthly record

No completed rounds

Avg return n/a
S&P 500 n/a
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 n/a
Hit rate n/a
Avg rank n/a
Best round n/a
Equal-run benchmark sets

Benchmark Sets Including This Model

These are the equal-run rankings this model belongs to. Each set compares a fixed roster only on rounds every model in that roster completed.

Weekly · Waiting

Jul 8, 2026 roster

Weekly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.

Open full set
n/a Rank in set n/a CapitalBench Score n/a Total return 0 Shared rounds
This set is waiting for its first shared resolved round. The chart appears after every model in the 7-model roster has an official result in the same weekly round.
Performance chart

Portfolio Minus S&P 500 By Completed Round

Bars to the right mean the portfolio return was higher than the S&P 500 return. Bars to the left mean it was lower.

No completed score yet. This chart appears after at least one test has ending prices.
Portfolio pattern

What This Model Has Tended To Hold

Calculated from all saved official portfolios for this model, including open and completed rounds.

Cumulative risk appetite

Aggressive

Frequently leans into high-beta or narrow thematic exposure.

4.22 / 5 allocation-weighted score
Grok 4.5 4.22
80.0% high-risk exposure 27.5% technology exposure 0.00% defensive ballast
Risk appetite 4.22 / 5
Saved portfolios 2
Avg holdings 5.0
Avg top holding 32.5%
Most common top holding Biotechnology (XBI)
Most frequently held assets
Biotechnology (XBI) Healthcare And Biotech 100.0% held 27.5% avg
Energy Sector (XLE) US Sector 100.0% held 20.0% avg
Financials Sector (XLF) US Sector 100.0% held 17.5% avg
US Large-Cap Value (IWD) US Style Factor 100.0% held 10.0% avg
Crude Oil (USO) Commodities 50.0% held 15.0% avg
Healthcare Sector (XLV) US Sector 50.0% held 10.0% avg
Average allocation by category
US Sector 47.5%
Healthcare And Biotech 27.5%
Commodities 15.0%
US Style Factor 10.0%
Round history

Saved Portfolios And Results

Round Track Window Portfolio Result
CB-2026-07-08-1W official-20260708 weekly 2026-07-08 to 2026-07-15 OIL 30.0%ENERGY 25.0%BIOTECH 20.0%FINANCIALS 15.0%LARGE_VALUE 10.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Crude Oil (USO) 30.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 25.0% Biotechnology (XBI) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 15.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 10.0%
Rationale

One-week edge comes from oil geopolitics, bank earnings, and value/cyclical tilt amid sticky inflation signals rather than broad beta or long-duration assets.

CB-2026-07-08-1M official-20260708 monthly 2026-07-08 to 2026-08-07 BIOTECH 35.0%HEALTHCARE 20.0%FINANCIALS 20.0%ENERGY 15.0%LARGE_VALUE 10.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Biotechnology (XBI) 35.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 15.0% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 10.0%
Rationale

Prioritize momentum and sector strength with near-term catalysts over broad beta or bonds; biotech leads for upside capture, balanced by healthcare/value and energy/financials exposure.

Audit and data Public Audit Packets For This Model