Current Model Scores
GPT-5.5 66.6
Grok 4.3 64.3
Claude Opus 4.7 48.6
Claude Opus 4.8 48.4
Gemini 3.1 Pro 48.2
Live allocation signal / methodology v1.0
Model Risk Appetite
A transparent reading of how defensive or risk-seeking the models' saved live portfolios are. It measures allocation choices, not subsequent returns.
Current decision pulse 55.2 Balanced
Weekly tactical 50.0 Balanced
Monthly strategic 60.5 Risk-seeking
Outstanding live book 81.9 Aggressive
Latest saved decisions
Defensive and inflation-sensitive rotation
The current pulse combines CB-2026-06-05-1W and CB-2026-06-05-1M. Weekly and monthly are calculated separately, then receive equal weight.
Change from previous decision set -33.2
Previous: CB-2026-06-03-1W and CB-2026-06-03-1M
55.2 Balanced
Model agreement Mixed 8.4 point standard deviation
Saved allocation history
Historical Risk Appetite
The latest Weekly and Monthly decisions are calculated separately and then receive equal weight in the Combined line.
CombinedWeeklyMonthly
Historical points are reconstructed only from portfolios and dates in the public record. Prices and subsequent returns are excluded.
Largest Drivers
Energy Sector XLE 23.5%
Healthcare Sector XLV 23.0%
Short-Term Treasury Bills BIL 11.0%
Financials Sector XLF 7.00%
Crude Oil USO 5.50%
Aerospace and Defense ITA 5.00%
S&P 500 SPY 4.00%
US Low Volatility Equities SPLV 3.50%
Consumer Staples Sector XLP 3.00%
US Dividend Equities SCHD 3.00%
What Kind Of Risk
Defensive equity 32.5%
Real assets and inflation 30.0%
Broad and cyclical equity 18.0%
Cash and defensive FX 12.5%
Growth and technology 5.50%
Rates and credit 1.50%
Calculation process
How The Signal Is Calculated
Version 1.0 uses only public, locked portfolio allocations. Prices, realized returns, model rankings, and later information do not affect the signal.
Rate every asset in two dimensions
The 1–5 risk score measures standalone allocation risk and powers the existing historical model profile. The -1 to +1 risk-on loading measures whether holding the asset is defensive or expresses risk seeking.
Score each saved portfolio
Portfolio Pulse = 50 + 50 × Σ(allocation weight × asset risk-on loading)A fully defensive portfolio approaches 0, a neutral mix approaches 50, and a fully risk-on portfolio approaches 100.
Calculate Weekly and Monthly separately
Each model has equal weight within the latest weekly test and within the latest monthly test. Portfolio size, provider, and historical performance do not change a model's vote.
Combine the two horizons equally
Combined Pulse = 50% × Weekly Pulse + 50% × Monthly PulseThis prevents the larger number of open monthly portfolios from overwhelming the faster tactical signal.
Report agreement and change
Agreement is the population standard deviation of each model's combined latest score. Change compares the current weekly/monthly pair with the immediately preceding pair.
Two different questions
Current Opinion Versus Existing Exposure
Uses only the newest weekly and monthly decisions. This is the primary reading for current model sentiment.
Uses all 67 unresolved portfolios across 14 tests. It describes capital still exposed, including older decisions.
Shared asset framework
Consistency With Model Risk Profiles
The historical model cards retain their existing 1–5 format. Both those cards and this live signal now read from the same versioned asset definitions.
Measures standalone allocation risk. Long-duration bonds can score as risky because they can be volatile, even though their risk-on loading is defensive.
Measures the direction of the allocation signal. Oil can be volatile but only moderately risk-on when models use it as an inflation hedge.
Separates growth, defensive equity, real assets, rates and credit, international equity, broad cyclicals, liquidity, and crypto.
Versioned source table
Asset Risk Definitions
All 70 assets are explicitly rated. A new universe asset must receive a complete definition before the public build passes.
| Asset | Regime | Risk 1–5 | Risk-on loading | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional Banks KRE | Broad and cyclical equity | 5 | +0.80 | None |
| Aerospace and Defense ITA | Broad and cyclical equity | 4 | +0.45 | None |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector XLY | Broad and cyclical equity | 4 | +0.55 | None |
| Financials Sector XLF | Broad and cyclical equity | 4 | +0.45 | None |
| Real Estate Sector XLRE | Broad and cyclical equity | 4 | +0.45 | None |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks IJH | Broad and cyclical equity | 4 | +0.60 | None |
| US Small-Cap Stocks IWM | Broad and cyclical equity | 4 | +0.70 | None |
| US Small-Cap Value IWN | Broad and cyclical equity | 4 | +0.65 | None |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 RSP | Broad and cyclical equity | 3 | +0.40 | None |
| Industrials Sector XLI | Broad and cyclical equity | 3 | +0.40 | None |
| S&P 500 SPY | Broad and cyclical equity | 3 | +0.35 | None |
| Total US Stock Market VTI | Broad and cyclical equity | 3 | +0.35 | None |
| US Large-Cap Value IWD | Broad and cyclical equity | 3 | +0.30 | None |
| Bitcoin ETF IBIT | Crypto | 5 | +1.00 | None |
| Ethereum ETF ETHA | Crypto | 5 | +1.00 | None |
| Consumer Staples Sector XLP | Defensive equity | 3 | -0.05 | Defensive |
| Healthcare Sector XLV | Defensive equity | 3 | 0.00 | None |
| US Dividend Equities SCHD | Defensive equity | 3 | +0.10 | Defensive |
| US Low Volatility Equities SPLV | Defensive equity | 3 | -0.05 | Defensive |
| Utilities Sector XLU | Defensive equity | 3 | -0.05 | Defensive |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds EMB | Rates and credit | 4 | +0.50 | Defensive |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds HYG | Rates and credit | 4 | +0.55 | Defensive |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds TLT | Rates and credit | 4 | -0.50 | Defensive |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds MBB | Rates and credit | 3 | -0.35 | Defensive |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds IEF | Rates and credit | 3 | -0.55 | Defensive |
| International Aggregate Bonds BNDX | Rates and credit | 3 | -0.25 | Defensive |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds LQD | Rates and credit | 3 | -0.20 | Defensive |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities TIP | Rates and credit | 3 | -0.35 | Defensive |
| US Aggregate Bond Market AGG | Rates and credit | 3 | -0.55 | Defensive |
| Municipal Bonds MUB | Rates and credit | 2 | -0.65 | Defensive |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics ARKQ | Growth and technology | 5 | +0.90 | Technology |
| Biotechnology XBI | Growth and technology | 5 | +0.85 | Technology |
| Broad AI Technology AIQ | Growth and technology | 5 | +0.90 | Technology |
| Semiconductors SMH | Growth and technology | 5 | +0.95 | Technology |
| Solar Energy TAN | Growth and technology | 5 | +0.85 | None |
| Communication Services Sector XLC | Growth and technology | 4 | +0.60 | None |
| Cybersecurity CIBR | Growth and technology | 4 | +0.75 | Technology |
| Nasdaq 100 QQQ | Growth and technology | 4 | +0.75 | Technology |
| Software IGV | Growth and technology | 4 | +0.75 | Technology |
| Technology Sector XLK | Growth and technology | 4 | +0.75 | Technology |
| US Large-Cap Growth IWF | Growth and technology | 4 | +0.70 | Technology |
| US Momentum Equities MTUM | Growth and technology | 4 | +0.65 | None |
| Brazil Equities EWZ | International equity | 5 | +0.80 | None |
| China Equities MCHI | International equity | 5 | +0.75 | None |
| Emerging Markets VWO | International equity | 5 | +0.70 | None |
| India Equities INDA | International equity | 5 | +0.75 | None |
| South Africa Equities EZA | International equity | 5 | +0.75 | None |
| South Korea Equities EWY | International equity | 5 | +0.80 | None |
| Taiwan Equities EWT | International equity | 5 | +0.85 | None |
| Australia Equities EWA | International equity | 4 | +0.45 | None |
| Canada Equities EWC | International equity | 4 | +0.45 | None |
| Developed Markets ex-US VEA | International equity | 4 | +0.45 | None |
| Europe Equities VGK | International equity | 4 | +0.45 | None |
| Japan Equities EWJ | International equity | 4 | +0.45 | None |
| Mexico Equities EWW | International equity | 4 | +0.55 | None |
| United Kingdom Equities EWU | International equity | 4 | +0.40 | None |
| Japanese Yen FXY | Cash and defensive FX | 4 | -0.45 | None |
| Euro FXE | Cash and defensive FX | 3 | -0.10 | None |
| US Dollar UUP | Cash and defensive FX | 3 | -0.40 | None |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills BIL | Cash and defensive FX | 2 | -0.90 | Defensive |
| Cash / Do Not Invest CASH | Cash and defensive FX | 1 | -1.00 | Defensive |
| Crude Oil USO | Real assets and inflation | 5 | +0.30 | None |
| Metals and Mining XME | Real assets and inflation | 5 | +0.55 | None |
| Agriculture Commodities DBA | Real assets and inflation | 4 | +0.10 | None |
| Broad Commodities PDBC | Real assets and inflation | 4 | +0.20 | None |
| Copper CPER | Real assets and inflation | 4 | +0.50 | None |
| Energy Sector XLE | Real assets and inflation | 4 | +0.35 | None |
| Silver SLV | Real assets and inflation | 4 | +0.05 | None |
| Gold IAU | Real assets and inflation | 3 | -0.25 | Defensive |
| Materials Sector XLB | Real assets and inflation | 3 | +0.45 | None |
What This Signal Does Not Claim
It is a descriptive aggregate of a small model panel operating under CapitalBench prompts. It is not a forecast of market direction, a volatility estimate, a measure of investor positioning, or investment advice. Asset loadings are methodology assumptions and are versioned when changed.