Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 67.9 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +45.71% to real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +30.71%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +17.86%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-21 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-20260721-1m
33,787 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-21-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-21
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-22T00:36:24Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-22T09:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-21
- Exit date: 2026-08-21
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Tuesday, July 21, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, August 21, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — Information Available Through July 21, 2026
Research cutoff: July 22, 2026 at 00:36:24 UTC. The weekly scoring window ends at the July 28 close; the monthly scoring window ends at the August 21 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. economy
- BLS reported June CPI down 0.4% month over month and up 3.5% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and up 2.6% over 12 months. Energy fell 5.7% in June and rose 15.7% over 12 months.
- BLS reported June final-demand PPI down 0.3% for the month and up 5.5% over 12 months. Final demand less food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% for the month and 5.1% over 12 months.
- June nonfarm payroll employment increased by 57,000, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% over 12 months. April and May payroll gains were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- Advance June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point sampling interval and was not adjusted for price changes.
- June industrial production rose 0.1% for the month and 1.1% over 12 months. Manufacturing was unchanged for the month, mining rose 0.4%, and total capacity utilization was 76.1%.
- Third-estimate first-quarter real GDP rose at a 2.1% annual rate. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 1.7%, real GDI rose 1.2%, and the quarterly PCE price index rose at a 4.6% annual rate.
- In May, personal income and consumer spending each rose 0.7%, the personal saving rate was 3.0%, and the PCE price index was 4.1% above its year-earlier level.
- June housing starts were at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from revised May with a plus-or-minus 15.9 percentage-point interval. Building permits fell 3.0%. Existing-home sales fell 2.4% to a 4.09 million annual rate, and pending-home sales fell 5.4%.
- Preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 54.4, compared with 49.5 in June and 61.7 in July 2025. Final July results are scheduled for July 31.
## Policy and published forecasts
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 12–0 vote.
- Federal Reserve participant medians for 2026 were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts under individual appropriate-policy assumptions, not a Committee plan. The submitted ranges were 1.8%–2.6%, 4.3%–4.6%, 2.7%–4.1%, 2.6%–3.5%, and 3.4%–4.4%, respectively.
- The ECB raised its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%, effective June 17. ECB staff forecast 2026 headline inflation at 3.0% and inflation excluding energy and food at 2.5%; the ECB said it was not pre-committing to a rate path.
- The Bank of England maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 7–2 vote; two members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The Bank said the scale, duration, and propagation of the energy shock remained uncertain.
- The Bank of Japan website listed its policy rate at 1.0% on July 21.
- The IMF forecast global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Its 2026 forecasts included 2.3% for the United States, 0.9% for the euro area, 1.1% for Japan, 4.6% for China, and 6.4% for India. The IMF stated that global disinflation had stalled and identified renewed conflict and financial-market repricing as downside risks.
## July 21 market close
- The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 7,509.20, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 52,224.64, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.3% to 25,837.21.
- Market coverage reported 245 S&P 500 constituents advancing and the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF rising 0.2%. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose approximately 5.4%; the technology sector rose 2.3% and consumer staples declined 1.1%.
- Brent crude settled at $91.01 per barrel, up 2.0%, after approaching $92. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.63% from 4.60% on July 20.
- The FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, the Kospi rose 3.6%, the Nikkei 225 rose 3.3%, Shanghai rose 1.8%, and Hong Kong declined by less than 0.1%.
## Scheduled events
- July 22: EIA weekly petroleum data at 10:30 a.m. ET; Alphabet and Tesla second-quarter results after the U.S. close.
- July 23: ECB monetary-policy decision at 14:15 CET and press conference at 14:45 CET; RTX second-quarter results before the U.S. open.
- July 24: U.S. June new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET; Bank of England July business-conditions and Decision Maker Panel publications.
- July 28: first day of the two-day FOMC meeting; Visa fiscal third-quarter results after the U.S. close. The FOMC statement is scheduled after the weekly exit close.
- July 29: FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET; Microsoft and Qualcomm results after the U.S. close.
- July 30: U.S. advance second-quarter GDP and June personal income, outlays, and PCE prices at 8:30 a.m. ET; Bank of England policy decision and Monetary Policy Report; first day of the Bank of Japan meeting.
- July 31: Bank of Japan statement and outlook view; final July University of Michigan sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 3 and 5: ISM July Manufacturing and Services PMI releases. August 4: U.S. June trade and JOLTS releases.
- August 7: U.S. July Employment Situation. August 12 and 13: U.S. July CPI and PPI.
- August 18: July pending-home sales. August 19: minutes of the July FOMC meeting. August 20: Conference Board July Leading Economic Index. August 21: BLS state employment and unemployment.
## Neutrality and data boundary
These fixed datapoints contain no recommendation, ranking, hypothetical scenario, or mapping to allowed choices. Source links remain in the audit-only market fact report. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. The complete mechanical full-universe context and the complete V2.2 evidence table are supplied separately in frozen option order.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-21-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-21-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-21'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-22T09:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-e43c7885fb22
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-22T00:34:01.515302+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Tuesday, July 21, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, August 21, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-21'
exit_date: '2026-08-21'
created_at: '2026-07-22T00:34:01.515302+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.2 monthly round on Universe v2.1. Research assembled after the July 21 close through direct public-source browser review; participant model tools and search are disabled.# Market Briefing — Information Available Through July 21, 2026
Research cutoff: July 22, 2026 at 00:36:24 UTC. The weekly scoring window ends at the July 28 close; the monthly scoring window ends at the August 21 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. economy
- BLS reported June CPI down 0.4% month over month and up 3.5% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and up 2.6% over 12 months. Energy fell 5.7% in June and rose 15.7% over 12 months.
- BLS reported June final-demand PPI down 0.3% for the month and up 5.5% over 12 months. Final demand less food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% for the month and 5.1% over 12 months.
- June nonfarm payroll employment increased by 57,000, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% over 12 months. April and May payroll gains were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- Advance June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point sampling interval and was not adjusted for price changes.
- June industrial production rose 0.1% for the month and 1.1% over 12 months. Manufacturing was unchanged for the month, mining rose 0.4%, and total capacity utilization was 76.1%.
- Third-estimate first-quarter real GDP rose at a 2.1% annual rate. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 1.7%, real GDI rose 1.2%, and the quarterly PCE price index rose at a 4.6% annual rate.
- In May, personal income and consumer spending each rose 0.7%, the personal saving rate was 3.0%, and the PCE price index was 4.1% above its year-earlier level.
- June housing starts were at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from revised May with a plus-or-minus 15.9 percentage-point interval. Building permits fell 3.0%. Existing-home sales fell 2.4% to a 4.09 million annual rate, and pending-home sales fell 5.4%.
- Preliminary July University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 54.4, compared with 49.5 in June and 61.7 in July 2025. Final July results are scheduled for July 31.
## Policy and published forecasts
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 12–0 vote.
- Federal Reserve participant medians for 2026 were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts under individual appropriate-policy assumptions, not a Committee plan. The submitted ranges were 1.8%–2.6%, 4.3%–4.6%, 2.7%–4.1%, 2.6%–3.5%, and 3.4%–4.4%, respectively.
- The ECB raised its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%, effective June 17. ECB staff forecast 2026 headline inflation at 3.0% and inflation excluding energy and food at 2.5%; the ECB said it was not pre-committing to a rate path.
- The Bank of England maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 7–2 vote; two members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The Bank said the scale, duration, and propagation of the energy shock remained uncertain.
- The Bank of Japan website listed its policy rate at 1.0% on July 21.
- The IMF forecast global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. Its 2026 forecasts included 2.3% for the United States, 0.9% for the euro area, 1.1% for Japan, 4.6% for China, and 6.4% for India. The IMF stated that global disinflation had stalled and identified renewed conflict and financial-market repricing as downside risks.
## July 21 market close
- The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 7,509.20, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7% to 52,224.64, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.3% to 25,837.21.
- Market coverage reported 245 S&P 500 constituents advancing and the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF rising 0.2%. The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose approximately 5.4%; the technology sector rose 2.3% and consumer staples declined 1.1%.
- Brent crude settled at $91.01 per barrel, up 2.0%, after approaching $92. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.63% from 4.60% on July 20.
- The FTSE 100 rose 0.6%, the Kospi rose 3.6%, the Nikkei 225 rose 3.3%, Shanghai rose 1.8%, and Hong Kong declined by less than 0.1%.
## Scheduled events
- July 22: EIA weekly petroleum data at 10:30 a.m. ET; Alphabet and Tesla second-quarter results after the U.S. close.
- July 23: ECB monetary-policy decision at 14:15 CET and press conference at 14:45 CET; RTX second-quarter results before the U.S. open.
- July 24: U.S. June new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET; Bank of England July business-conditions and Decision Maker Panel publications.
- July 28: first day of the two-day FOMC meeting; Visa fiscal third-quarter results after the U.S. close. The FOMC statement is scheduled after the weekly exit close.
- July 29: FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET; Microsoft and Qualcomm results after the U.S. close.
- July 30: U.S. advance second-quarter GDP and June personal income, outlays, and PCE prices at 8:30 a.m. ET; Bank of England policy decision and Monetary Policy Report; first day of the Bank of Japan meeting.
- July 31: Bank of Japan statement and outlook view; final July University of Michigan sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 3 and 5: ISM July Manufacturing and Services PMI releases. August 4: U.S. June trade and JOLTS releases.
- August 7: U.S. July Employment Situation. August 12 and 13: U.S. July CPI and PPI.
- August 18: July pending-home sales. August 19: minutes of the July FOMC meeting. August 20: Conference Board July Leading Economic Index. August 21: BLS state employment and unemployment.
## Neutrality and data boundary
These fixed datapoints contain no recommendation, ranking, hypothetical scenario, or mapping to allowed choices. Source links remain in the audit-only market fact report. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. The complete mechanical full-universe context and the complete V2.2 evidence table are supplied separately in frozen option order.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-21-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-21-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-21-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-21-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-21-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-21-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-21-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Barbell of pulled-back AI/semiconductor leadership plus energy momentum backed by $91 Brent, hedged with recovering low-beta healthcare and a SPY core, aiming for alpha across the FOMC/earnings-heavy window.
Semis offer the strongest trend-plus-pullback setup into mega-cap AI earnings; energy is supported by supplied oil-price facts; healthcare offers defensive relative strength; SPY anchors the book.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid growth, easing headline inflation, and broad breadth support modest gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 7,509.20 on July 21 with 245 constituents advancing",
"Fed on hold at 3.50-3.75%; June CPI -0.4% m/m",
"Q1 GDP +2.1%; IMF forecasts US 2.3% growth in 2026"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish FOMC or CPI reacceleration",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Sticky 3.5% y/y CPI plus hawkish FOMC could compress multiples",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, mega-cap earnings, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong secular AI trend resuming after a healthy pullback, confirmed by July 21 rally and upcoming AI earnings",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"PHLX Semiconductor Index rose ~5.4% on July 21",
"Prior 105-session active return +56.3% with recent -11.7% active pullback",
"Highest quality evidence score among sector/theme options (0.755)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Negative AI capex commentary or fresh lows below the recent 21-day pullback",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "High valuation, 52.9% vol, beta 2.3; weak capex guidance could extend the drawdown",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft/Qualcomm results July 29; broader AI earnings cycle"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rising crude prices and negative SPY correlation provide alpha and hedge",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled at $91.01, up 2.0% on July 21",
"USO +12.2% over 21 sessions; XLE +9.4% active over same window",
"CPI energy up 15.7% over 12 months"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below mid-$80s",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil is extended (+51.8% prior active); supply response or demand fears could reverse quickly",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum data July 22 and subsequent weeks"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rotation into laggard defensives continuing amid FOMC/CPI uncertainty",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV +7.5% active over last 21 sessions after -12.2% prior lag",
"Low beta (0.33) and modest 63-session drawdown (-3.7%)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV lags SPY two consecutive weeks amid clear risk-on rotation",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on growth leadership could sap defensive flows",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC and Aug 12 CPI drive defensive demand"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value/income rotation continues in a choppy tape",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD +3.6% active over 21 sessions with low beta 0.27",
"Low 11.9% volatility and shallow drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained growth outperformance post-earnings",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth leadership resumption leaves dividend stocks behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Semiconductor-driven trend resumes with global chip rally",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Kospi +3.6% on July 21",
"Prior active return +86.8% but -21.3% recent active drawdown; 78% volatility"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -12,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued won weakness or chip guidance disappointment",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility and momentum-unwind risk make continuation unreliable",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global semiconductor earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Reliable cash-like carry",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Fed funds 3.50-3.75%; near-zero volatility"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Not applicable; base below SPY hurdle",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "None material; simply lags equities in a positive tape",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sticky inflation could revive safe-haven demand",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU -3.2% over 21 sessions, -24.4% from 52-week high",
"Dollar firm (UUP +0.6% over 21s), 10y yield rising to 4.63%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Base below SPY hurdle; rejected",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising yields and firm dollar pressure gold; weak prior trend",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"cost_usd": 0.45914000000000005,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.89,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish July 29 FOMC or hot Aug 12 CPI given 3.5% headline inflation",
"Disappointing AI capex guidance hitting semiconductors (high beta 2.3)",
"Oil price reversal unwinding energy gains",
"Momentum unwind: high-vol prior winners continuing to mean-revert lower"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish FOMC surprise or CPI reacceleration on Aug 12",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark core; resilient breadth and July 21 strength support baseline equity exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, mega-cap earnings (Alphabet, Microsoft), July 30 GDP/PCE"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Weak AI capex guidance from mega-cap earnings or SMH failing to reclaim its 21-day trend",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strongest prior active trend (+56% over 105s) with a deep recent pullback (-11.7% active); top quality evidence score and July 21 SOX +5.4% suggests trend resumption into AI earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap tech/AI earnings late July (Microsoft, Qualcomm) driving chip demand narrative"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falling back below the mid-$80s or supply-driven price break",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent at $91 up 2% on July 21, oil +12% over 21 sessions; energy sector +9.4% active with low SPY beta provides diversification and inflation-linked upside.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum data July 22 and ongoing energy-price momentum (energy +15.7% y/y in CPI)"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rotation back to growth leadership with XLV lagging SPY for two consecutive weeks",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Best 21-session active return among sectors (+7.5%) after a deep prior lag (-12.2%), low beta defensive that hedges FOMC/CPI risk while still beating SPY base case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation around July 29 FOMC and Aug 12 CPI"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.69,
"portfolio_rationale": "Barbell of pulled-back AI/semiconductor leadership plus energy momentum backed by $91 Brent, hedged with recovering low-beta healthcare and a SPY core, aiming for alpha across the FOMC/earnings-heavy window.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Semis offer the strongest trend-plus-pullback setup into mega-cap AI earnings; energy is supported by supplied oil-price facts; healthcare offers defensive relative strength; SPY anchors the book.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-21-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.45914000000000005,
"input_tokens": 27739,
"latency_seconds": 49.242431128863245,
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}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Balanced core-plus-defensive stance: SPY anchor with quality defensive tilts (healthcare, dividend) showing strong recent relative strength and shallow drawdowns into an event-heavy window.
Overweight defensive quality sectors with positive relative momentum while anchoring to SPY ahead of FOMC and key data.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad advance continues with disinflation and stable growth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 7,509.20 on July 21",
"spy_return_21s 0.21%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below key support with deteriorating breadth",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish FOMC or weak payrolls trigger pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, Q2 GDP, CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation and strong relative strength persist.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +7.53%",
"max_drawdown_63s -3.74%",
"low beta 0.334"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turns negative",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Growth re-leads, healthcare gives back gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows around macro events"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Quality dividend tilt outperforms in choppy tape.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +3.63%",
"return_5s +1.93%",
"low beta 0.274"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD lags SPY two consecutive weeks",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rate spike hurts dividend payers.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and GDP releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI capex and chip strength resume.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"volatility_63s 52.86%",
"active_return_21s -11.69%",
"PHLX Semi +5.4% on July 21"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 14,
"forecast_low_pct": -12,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH extends drawdown below recent lows",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "High vol and recent active drawdown signal exhaustion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft/Qualcomm earnings late July"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil strength continues supporting energy.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +9.38%",
"Brent $91.01 up 2.0%",
"max_drawdown -13.21%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below $85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil pullback reverses gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA data, OPEC dynamics"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dovish FOMC or weak data rallies bonds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"tlt_return_21s -3.21%",
"10yr yield rose to 4.63%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "10yr yield breaks above 4.75%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation keeps yields elevated.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steady financials on stable rates.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +4.90%",
"low drawdown -3.34%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF turns down with regional bank stress",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit stress or yield curve shift.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings, FOMC"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand on volatility.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"iau_return_21s -3.16%",
"max_drawdown -17.41%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold breaks below recent support",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Strong dollar and higher real rates weigh.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, dollar moves"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.3,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC or hot CPI triggers broad equity selloff",
"Defensive rotation reverses as growth/tech re-leads"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 breaks below recent support with broad-market breakdown",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core broad exposure; benchmark anchor amid mixed macro and pre-FOMC uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, Q2 GDP July 30, July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turns sharply negative",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong relative strength (+7.53% active 21s), low drawdown, defensive tilt into event-heavy window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector earnings and defensive rotation through August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD underperforms SPY over two consecutive weeks",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Positive recent momentum (+3.63% active 21s), low beta, defensive quality tilt.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows around FOMC and GDP releases"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"portfolio_rationale": "Balanced core-plus-defensive stance: SPY anchor with quality defensive tilts (healthcare, dividend) showing strong recent relative strength and shallow drawdowns into an event-heavy window.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight defensive quality sectors with positive relative momentum while anchoring to SPY ahead of FOMC and key data.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-21-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27745,
"latency_seconds": 36.733780675102025,
"output_tokens": 2352,
"total_tokens": 30097
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio is positioned to capture upside in the energy complex while balancing risk with a defensive allocation to healthcare. Strong recent momentum in oil prices and the energy sector provides a compelling tactical opportunity. Healthcare offers stability and has shown positive recent active returns.
Overweight energy and healthcare to balance cyclical upside with defensive stability.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued economic resilience and positive earnings reports support steady market gains.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The S&P 500 rose 0.9% to 7,509.20 on July 21.",
"First-quarter real GDP rose at a 2.1% annual rate."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant miss in mega-cap tech earnings or hawkish Fed surprise.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Inflation re-accelerates, prompting fears of further rate hikes.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and major tech earnings in late July."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tight supply and resilient demand keep crude prices elevated above $90.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $91.01 per barrel, up 2.0%.",
"USO returned 7.22% over the last 5 days."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in Brent crude prices below $85 per barrel.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "A sudden increase in OPEC+ production or a severe global demand shock.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum data releases and ongoing supply/demand dynamics."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy companies report strong earnings and maintain capital discipline amid high oil prices.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE returned 2.72% over the last 5 days.",
"Energy sector equities benefit from rising crude prices."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant decline in oil prices or broader market sell-off.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil prices collapse, dragging down energy sector earnings expectations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming earnings reports from major energy companies."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Investors seek defensive exposure amid macroeconomic uncertainty, supporting healthcare valuations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV returned 1.24% over the last 5 days.",
"Healthcare sector showed 7.53% active return over 21 days."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rotation back into high-beta growth sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A strong risk-on rally leads to underperformance of defensive sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector rotation into defensive areas amid economic uncertainty."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand increases due to geopolitical tensions or economic fears.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU returned 0.72% over the last 5 days.",
"The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.63%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp increase in real interest rates.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real yields and a stronger US dollar pressure gold prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement and inflation data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Short-term rates remain stable, providing steady yield.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%.",
"BIL returned 0.05% over the last 5 days."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden shift in Fed policy expectations.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "An unexpected rate cut by the Fed.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting decision."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap tech companies report strong earnings, driving sector outperformance.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The technology sector rose 2.3% on July 21.",
"XLK returned -1.55% over the last 5 days."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant earnings misses from key technology leaders.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Rising interest rates pressure high-valuation tech stocks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports from major tech companies like Microsoft and Alphabet."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.875,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden reversal in oil prices due to geopolitical de-escalation or demand shocks.",
"Broader market volatility impacting equity allocations.",
"Underperformance of defensive sectors if risk appetite surges."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in Brent crude prices below $85 per barrel.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Strong recent momentum in crude prices and positive active return trends support further upside.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum data releases and ongoing supply/demand dynamics."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant decline in oil prices or broader market sell-off.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy sector equities are well-positioned to benefit from rising crude prices and strong recent active returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming earnings reports from major energy companies."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rotation back into high-beta growth sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare offers defensive characteristics with strong recent active performance, providing balance to the portfolio.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector rotation into defensive areas amid economic uncertainty."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.875,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is positioned to capture upside in the energy complex while balancing risk with a defensive allocation to healthcare. Strong recent momentum in oil prices and the energy sector provides a compelling tactical opportunity. Healthcare offers stability and has shown positive recent active returns.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight energy and healthcare to balance cyclical upside with defensive stability.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-21-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17255,
"latency_seconds": 19.57720644795336,
"output_tokens": 2014,
"reasoning_tokens": 831,
"total_tokens": 20100
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts to candidates with base forecasts above SPY, using recent pullbacks with independent catalysts while diversifying across technology, energy, healthcare, diversified U.S. equity, and international equity. No non-SPY economic-exposure cluster exceeds 50%.
SPY has modest positive one-month expected return but faces slowing payrolls, inflation uncertainty, a FOMC meeting, and concentrated leadership risk. Selected holdings have stronger base cases from either high quality evidence scores, positive active trends, near-term earnings/policy catalysts, or oil-linked momentum.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad U.S. equities can grind higher if disinflation offsets slower labor data and upcoming earnings support index-level profit expectations.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 was 1.23% below its 52-week high at entry with 13.02% 63-session volatility and -4.49% 63-session max drawdown.",
"SPY 21-session return was 0.21% and 5-session return was -0.47%.",
"June payrolls rose only 57,000 with downward revisions, while June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and core CPI was unchanged."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below recent support with breadth deterioration and rising yields after macro or earnings events.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "High index levels near 52-week highs could reverse if July macro releases, FOMC communication, or mega-cap earnings disappoint.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet, Tesla, Microsoft, Qualcomm and other earnings; FOMC statement; July employment, CPI and PPI before August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A strong prior trend plus deep pullback and the July 21 semiconductor surge support a rebound if chip earnings and AI-related demand sentiment hold up.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.755, among the highest in the supplied table, with prior active rank 0.985 and recent pullback rank 0.970.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 56.27%, while 21-session active return was -11.69%, showing a strong trend with a deep recent pullback.",
"The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose approximately 5.4% on July 21, while the technology sector rose 2.3%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "Semiconductors fail to hold the recent rebound and extend underperformance versus SPY, especially if earnings guidance disappoints or rates rise further.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Very high volatility, beta of 2.308, and a -16.80% 63-session max drawdown make the rebound vulnerable to earnings disappointments or valuation compression.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet, Microsoft, Qualcomm and broader technology earnings before the August 21 exit; continuation of the July 21 semiconductor surge."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil strength and positive energy-sector relative performance can continue if supply, inventory, or geopolitical conditions keep crude elevated.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy 21-session active return was 9.38% and prior 105-session active return was 4.95%.",
"Energy gained 2.72% over 5 sessions, and Brent crude settled at $91.01, up 2.0%, after approaching $92.",
"Oil-linked inflation remained relevant, with June energy CPI down 5.7% month over month but up 15.7% over 12 months."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses sharply below recent levels or energy equities stop tracking oil strength.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Energy has high volatility, a -13.21% 63-session drawdown, and could reverse if crude retreats or demand concerns dominate.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum data, oil inventory headlines, and persistence of Brent near the low-$90s before August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent healthcare and biotech relative strength can persist if risk appetite remains supportive and investors rotate into non-mega-cap growth areas.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Biotech 21-session active return was 9.69% and prior 105-session active return was 4.78%.",
"Biotech had a quality evidence prior active rank of 0.821, though recent pullback rank was only 0.030.",
"The broader healthcare sector had a 7.53% 21-session active return and a relatively shallow -3.74% 63-session max drawdown."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Biotech loses its recent relative strength or high-beta healthcare sells off on funding, regulatory, or risk-off pressure.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"reversal_case": "Biotech is very high risk, with 30.59% 63-session volatility, and recent strength could mean-revert without specific positive news.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Healthcare and biotech earnings/news flow, financing-risk sentiment, and broader equity risk appetite through August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive breadth and lower-volatility dividend leadership can continue if investors prefer profitable, mature companies during macro uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Dividend equities had 3.63% 21-session active return and 2.64% prior 105-session active return.",
"63-session volatility was 11.90%, below SPY's 13.02%, with a -2.95% max drawdown.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.587, supported by prior active rank 0.731, low-volatility rank 0.761, and shallow-drawdown rank 0.806."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap growth resumes leadership while dividend and value-oriented equities lag SPY.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "If mega-cap growth resumes leadership, dividend equities may lag SPY despite steadier risk characteristics.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of equal-weight/value breadth, July macro data, and defensiveness around FOMC and inflation releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A positive prior trend and recent pullback could rebound if the BOJ outcome is not adverse and global equity risk appetite remains constructive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Japan quality evidence score was 0.704, with prior active rank 0.806 and recent pullback rank 0.806.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 4.69%, while 21-session active return was -3.86%.",
"The Nikkei 225 rose 3.3% on July 21, and the Bank of Japan statement and outlook view are scheduled for July 31."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "BOJ or yen moves pressure Japanese equities, or Japan fails to recover from its recent active underperformance.",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Japanese equities are sensitive to yen and BOJ policy moves; a hawkish or currency-driven shock could extend underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan statement and outlook view on July 31 plus global earnings and currency reactions before August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity momentum can persist if energy and raw-material prices remain firm amid stalled global disinflation.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Broad commodities had 6.76% 21-session active return and 11.64% prior 105-session active return.",
"The 5-session return was 3.34%, and Brent crude settled at $91.01, up 2.0%, on July 21.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.506, with strong prior active rank 0.896 but weak recent pullback rank 0.090."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodities roll over with oil and other commodity benchmarks losing recent momentum.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "The setup is extended after strong recent gains and could reverse if oil falls or global growth concerns rise.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA petroleum data, July inflation releases, and commodity price reactions before August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent relative strength could continue if yield-curve and credit concerns ease and risk appetite broadens into financials.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Regional banks had 6.35% 21-session active return and 1.31% 5-session return.",
"Prior 105-session active return was -2.22%, and 63-session volatility was 20.78%.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.63% from 4.60% on July 20, while the FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional banks underperform on deposit, credit, or rate-curve concerns and lose recent relative momentum.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Negative prior trend, high volatility, and sensitivity to credit quality or commercial real estate concerns make the signal less reliable than selected holdings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision, July macro data, and financial-sector earnings or credit commentary before August 21."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.88,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A broad risk-off move around July GDP, July employment, CPI/PPI, or FOMC communications could hurt all equity holdings versus SPY.",
"Semiconductor and biotech allocations have high volatility and could reverse sharply if earnings or guidance disappoint.",
"Oil and energy could fall on inventory builds, demand concerns, or geopolitical de-escalation, dragging the energy allocation.",
"SPY mega-cap concentration could outperform the diversified active basket, especially if technology leadership narrows again."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Semiconductors fail to hold the recent rebound and extend underperformance versus SPY, especially if earnings guidance disappoints or rates rise further.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "High-quality evidence score and very strong prior active trend with a large recent pullback create the best one-month rebound setup among growth exposures, with sector strength at the July 21 close and near-term mega-cap and chip-related earnings as catalysts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet, Microsoft, Qualcomm and broader technology earnings before the August 21 exit; continuation of the July 21 semiconductor surge."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses sharply below recent levels or energy equities stop tracking oil strength.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy has positive prior and recent active returns, crude was strong at the entry close, and the sector offers differentiated exposure versus SPY if oil strength persists.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum data, oil inventory headlines, and persistence of Brent near the low-$90s before August 21."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Biotech loses its recent relative strength or high-beta healthcare sells off on funding, regulatory, or risk-off pressure.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Biotech shows strong 21-day active performance with positive prior active return and a pullback-resistant healthcare exposure that could continue if risk appetite broadens beyond mega-cap growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Healthcare and biotech earnings/news flow, financing-risk sentiment, and broader equity risk appetite through August 21."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap growth resumes leadership while dividend and value-oriented equities lag SPY.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities combine positive recent and prior active performance with lower volatility and shallow drawdown, giving a steadier route to beat SPY if market breadth and value/dividend factors persist.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of equal-weight/value breadth, July macro data, and defensiveness around FOMC and inflation releases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "BOJ or yen moves pressure Japanese equities, or Japan fails to recover from its recent active underperformance.",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "Japan has a high quality evidence score, positive prior active trend, and a recent pullback that could mean-revert around the Bank of Japan meeting and global equity risk appetite.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan statement and outlook view on July 31 plus global earnings and currency reactions before August 21."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.58,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts to candidates with base forecasts above SPY, using recent pullbacks with independent catalysts while diversifying across technology, energy, healthcare, diversified U.S. equity, and international equity. No non-SPY economic-exposure cluster exceeds 50%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY has modest positive one-month expected return but faces slowing payrolls, inflation uncertainty, a FOMC meeting, and concentrated leadership risk. Selected holdings have stronger base cases from either high quality evidence scores, positive active trends, near-term earnings/policy catalysts, or oil-linked momentum.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-21-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"output_tokens": 3001,
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}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines a pulled-back, catalyst-rich semiconductor position with commodity inflation exposure and lower-volatility dividend equities. Each selected holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no non-benchmark exposure cluster exceeds 50%.
Semiconductors provide the strongest expected upside, while broad commodities and dividend equities reduce dependence on a single technology outcome. The weighted one-month base forecast is 2.105%, implying 1.355 percentage points of expected alpha.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Cooling monthly inflation and resilient consumer spending support modest gains, with earnings and potential policy relief offsetting weaker employment.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned 0.21% over 21 sessions and was 1.23% below its 52-week high.",
"June payrolls rose only 57,000 with prior months revised down by 74,000.",
"June core CPI was unchanged month over month, but year-over-year PCE inflation remained 4.1% in May."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A materially hawkish FOMC outcome combined with accelerating July inflation and another weak employment report.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Sticky underlying inflation, a 4.63% 10-year yield, and deteriorating labor data could trigger valuation compression or recession concerns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC decision, second-quarter GDP and PCE data on July 30, July employment on August 7, and July CPI on August 12."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The deep relative pullback may reset positioning within a powerful prior trend, with the July 21 sector surge and upcoming earnings offering independent confirmation.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Its quality evidence score was 0.755, with a 0.985 prior-active rank and 0.970 pullback rank.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 56.27%, followed by an 11.69% active loss over 21 sessions.",
"The PHLX Semiconductor Index rose approximately 5.4% on July 21; Microsoft and Qualcomm report July 29."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 16,
"forecast_low_pct": -13,
"invalidation_condition": "A renewed five-session relative loss exceeding 5% after July 21 alongside a 10-year Treasury yield above 4.75%.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extremely high 52.86% volatility, 2.308 beta, and sensitivity to elevated yields could turn the rebound into another failed rally.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Qualcomm results on July 29, followed by July CPI on August 12."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent inflation uncertainty and elevated energy prices can sustain commodity demand while the exposure provides diversification from equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return was 11.64% and 21-session active return was 6.76%.",
"The option gained 3.34% over five sessions and had a negative 0.116 correlation with SPY.",
"Brent crude closed at $91.01 after rising 2.0%, while the IMF said global disinflation had stalled."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "A five-session loss exceeding 3% accompanied by materially softer July CPI and PPI readings.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "The recent gain could reverse if energy prices normalize, global growth expectations weaken, or inflation data fall faster than expected.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA data and the July CPI and PPI releases on August 12-13."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive relative trends, lower volatility, and defensive profitability can attract flows if employment and growth data soften without producing a severe recession.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Dividend equities posted 3.63% active return over 21 sessions and 2.64% over the prior 105-session window.",
"Five-session return was 1.93%, volatility was 11.90%, and the 63-session drawdown was 2.95%.",
"June payroll growth slowed to 57,000, potentially supporting demand for mature defensive companies."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Its rolling 21-session active return versus SPY turns negative while cyclical market breadth strengthens.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A renewed high-beta rally or a sharp rise in yields could favor growth and cyclical equities over dividend-oriented companies.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC decision, July employment report on August 7, and July CPI on August 12."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated crude prices and uncertainty around the energy shock could continue lifting producer cash-flow expectations.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Energy gained 9.38% relative to SPY over 21 sessions and 2.72% over five sessions.",
"Brent crude settled at $91.01 after rising 2.0%.",
"The recent-pullback rank was only 0.045, while 63-session volatility was 24.19%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -10,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below its pre-July-surge range while the sector posts a five-session active loss greater than 3%.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The position is extended after strong recent performance, and falling crude prices could quickly reverse the sector's relative gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA petroleum data and July CPI and PPI releases on August 12-13."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive medium-term and recent relative trends could persist if softer macro data reduce financing-rate pressure and risk appetite remains intact.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Biotech delivered 9.69% active return over 21 sessions and 4.78% over the prior 105 sessions.",
"Its recent-pullback rank was only 0.030, indicating limited pullback after the relative advance.",
"Volatility was 30.59% and the 63-session drawdown was 8.12%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 11,
"forecast_low_pct": -9,
"invalidation_condition": "Biotech loses more than 5% relative to SPY over five sessions or its 21-session active return falls below zero.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"reversal_case": "The absence of a recent pullback and high volatility make the sector vulnerable to profit-taking or adverse clinical and regulatory developments.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC decision and inflation releases on August 12-13; no broad sector-specific catalyst was identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak employment and benign monthly core CPI could lower growth and policy-rate expectations, allowing duration to rebound from its pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Long Treasuries lost 3.41% relative to SPY over 21 sessions and remained 6.15% below their 52-week high.",
"The recent-pullback rank was 0.791 and low-volatility rank was 0.806.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.63%, while June payroll growth slowed to 57,000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.80% following a hawkish FOMC decision or hotter July inflation.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "High year-over-year PCE and PPI inflation could keep yields elevated or push them higher despite weaker employment.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC decision, July 30 GDP and PCE data, August 7 employment report, and August 12 CPI."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.355,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Semiconductor earnings disappoint or elevated Treasury yields compress growth-stock valuations.",
"Commodity prices reverse sharply if the energy shock fades or inflation data undershoot expectations.",
"Stronger-than-expected growth and risk appetite rotate capital away from dividend equities.",
"A broad equity correction overwhelms the portfolio's cross-cluster diversification."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 2.7,
"invalidation_condition": "A renewed five-session relative loss exceeding 5% after July 21 alongside a 10-year Treasury yield above 4.75%.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "The highest quality-evidence score among the finalists combines a very strong prior relative trend with a deep pullback, while the July 21 semiconductor surge and upcoming technology earnings provide near-term confirmation opportunities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Qualcomm results on July 29, followed by July CPI on August 12."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.55,
"invalidation_condition": "A five-session loss exceeding 3% accompanied by materially softer July CPI and PPI readings.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Positive prior and recent relative performance has macro support from elevated energy prices and inflation uncertainty, while low correlation to SPY diversifies the semiconductor allocation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA data and the July CPI and PPI releases on August 12-13."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Its rolling 21-session active return versus SPY turns negative while cyclical market breadth strengthens.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities offer profitable, lower-volatility equity exposure with positive prior and recent relative trends, potentially benefiting if weakening employment encourages a defensive rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC decision, July employment report on August 7, and July CPI on August 12."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.105,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines a pulled-back, catalyst-rich semiconductor position with commodity inflation exposure and lower-volatility dividend equities. Each selected holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no non-benchmark exposure cluster exceeds 50%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Semiconductors provide the strongest expected upside, while broad commodities and dividend equities reduce dependence on a single technology outcome. The weighted one-month base forecast is 2.105%, implying 1.355 percentage points of expected alpha.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-21-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15608,
"latency_seconds": 55.66527418792248,
"output_tokens": 4067,
"reasoning_tokens": 1893,
"total_tokens": 19675
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Mix of SPY core with higher-forecast cyclical and defensive sectors exceeding SPY base case.
Selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY while respecting cluster caps and allocation rules.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Stable macro data supports modest equity gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed at 7509.20 on July 21",
"June nonfarm payrolls +57k"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7400 on August 21",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Higher unemployment or inflation surprise",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil supply tightness persists into August",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $91.01 up 2.0%",
"USO return_21s +11.96%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand weakness from slower global growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum data July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation continues on rate stability",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWN return_21s +2.58%",
"Small value quality evidence score 0.591"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rate rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth stocks rebound sharply",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data August 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows support sector outperformance",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active_return_21s +7.53%",
"Healthcare quality evidence score 0.248"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector underperforms SPY by more than 3%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation into cyclicals",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings season continuation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable rates support bank margins",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF active_return_21s +4.90%",
"Regional banks positive recent performance"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.1,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.8%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Yield curve flattens further",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of England decision July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "European and Japanese recovery",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"VEA return_21s -2.75%",
"IMF global growth forecast 3.0%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Developed ex-US underperforms SPY by 4%",
"option_id": "DEVELOPED_EX_US",
"reversal_case": "Stronger USD pressures international equities",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECB decision July 23"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yen stabilization aids exporters",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"EWJ return_21s -3.86%",
"Bank of Japan policy rate 1.0%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Nikkei falls more than 5% from July 21 close",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Yen strengthens sharply",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan statement July 31"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.69,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC policy surprise on July 29",
"Oil price reversal below $85",
"Weaker than expected Q2 GDP"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7400 on August 21",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad diversified US equity exposure as core holding.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent oil price momentum and sector outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum data July 22"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rate rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Positive recent relative performance in value segment.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data August 7"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector underperforms SPY by more than 3%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong active returns and defensive characteristics.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings season continuation"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 5,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year Treasury yield exceeds 4.8%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Modest positive active return in recent window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of England decision July 30"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.49,
"portfolio_rationale": "Mix of SPY core with higher-forecast cyclical and defensive sectors exceeding SPY base case.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY while respecting cluster caps and allocation rules.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-21-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15825,
"latency_seconds": 29.45393769000657,
"output_tokens": 1630,
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}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in energy and commodity exposures showing superior recent active returns and quality-supported momentum relative to SPY, capped at cluster limits, with biotech for diversification. All selected bases exceed SPY base for expected alpha over the one-month window.
Energy/oil leadership and commodity breadth offer the clearest one-month edge given supplied price context and oil settlement strength, while avoiding pure tech pullback names. Equal weights balance cluster caps and forecast dispersion.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Mild positive 21s return and broad advance on July 21 continue if soft-landing data holds",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 rose 0.9% on July 21 to 7509.20",
"spy_return_21s 0.21% and distance_52w_high -1.23%",
"June CPI down 0.4% mom but up 3.5% yoy"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below recent 21s low after FOMC",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated core inflation readings or hawkish FOMC reverse the modest gain",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC statement and July 30 GDP/PCE"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil price strength and energy sector leadership persist into August on supply tightness",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s 9.38% and prior_105s_active_return 4.95%",
"Brent crude settled at $91.01 up 2.0%",
"XLE return_5s 2.72%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below $85 or XLE active return turns negative vs SPY",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Inventory builds or demand slowdown reverse the 21s outperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated crude prices and positive volume context sustain gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"uso_return_21s 12.17% and active_return_21s 11.96%",
"prior_105s_active_return 51.78%",
"Brent at $91.01 approaching $92"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 4,
"forecast_high_pct": 15,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "USO max drawdown extends beyond -32% or settles 10% below entry",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Geopolitical de-escalation or recession signals crush the futures curve",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA data July 22 and any OPEC-related headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent active outperformance continues if risk appetite holds post-earnings",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s 9.69% and prior_105s_active_return 4.78%",
"return_5s -0.61% with volatility_63s 30.59%",
"quality evidence score 0.453"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "XBI underperforms SPY by >5% on consecutive sessions",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"reversal_case": "Financing stress or broad equity pullback hits high-beta biotech",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-July 29 FOMC risk sentiment into August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broad commodity momentum from energy and metals extends",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s 6.76% and prior_105s_active_return 11.64%",
"return_5s 3.34%",
"Brent strength and positive commodity share"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "PDBC gives back more than 50% of 21s gain",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Stronger USD or growth disappointment reverses PDBC",
"time_window_catalyst": "Industrial production follow-through and oil data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive dividend tilt holds if rates stabilize",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s 3.63% and return_5s 1.93%",
"distance_52w_high -0.67%",
"quality evidence score 0.587"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD active return turns negative vs SPY",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Value rotation fades on growth rebound",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and August employment"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yield curve and credit stabilization support banks",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s 6.35% and return_5s 1.31%",
"prior_105s_active_return -2.22%",
"10-year yield at 4.63%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "KRE draws down more than 5% post-FOMC",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Deposit or CRE stress reaccelerates",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and July employment"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 2.4,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp oil price reversal on inventory or demand data",
"FOMC July 29 hawkish surprise triggering risk-off",
"High volatility in energy and biotech amplifying drawdowns",
"USD strength pressuring commodities"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude settles below $85 or sharp reversal in XLE on inventory builds",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent active returns and oil price support outweigh near-term volatility for the one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum data July 22 and continued Brent strength near $91"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 4,
"invalidation_condition": "USO drops more than 10% from entry on demand destruction signals",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct crude exposure with elevated prior active trend and positive 5s/21s returns supports higher base case than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA data July 22 and any supply headlines before August 21 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XBI underperforms SPY by more than 5% or broad risk-off after July 29 FOMC",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Positive 21s active return and biotech momentum provide edge over broad market base case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-FOMC risk appetite and any sector-specific financing or data flow into mid-August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "PDBC reverses more than half its 21s gain on stronger USD or growth scare",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Diversified commodity strength with solid 21s active return and energy/ag support exceeds SPY forecast.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity price follow-through from oil and industrial data through early August"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 3.2,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in energy and commodity exposures showing superior recent active returns and quality-supported momentum relative to SPY, capped at cluster limits, with biotech for diversification. All selected bases exceed SPY base for expected alpha over the one-month window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy/oil leadership and commodity breadth offer the clearest one-month edge given supplied price context and oil settlement strength, while avoiding pure tech pullback names. Equal weights balance cluster caps and forecast dispersion.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-21-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16687,
"latency_seconds": 39.321873049018905,
"output_tokens": 2273,
"reasoning_tokens": 886,
"total_tokens": 19846
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)30%Semiconductors (SMH)30%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Crude Oil (USO)25%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)50% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Biotechnology (XBI)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%Japan Equities (EWJ)15% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)50%Broad Commodities (PDBC)30%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Energy Sector (XLE)20%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%Financials Sector (XLF)5% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)25%Crude Oil (USO)25%Biotechnology (XBI)25%Broad Commodities (PDBC)25% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-21 | 229.74 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-21 | 93.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-21 | 28.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-21 | 28.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-21 | 120.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-21 | 154.50 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-21 | 37.67 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-21 | 35.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-21 | 61.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-21 | 17.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-21 | 59.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-21 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-21 | 54.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-21 | 110.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-21 | 114.87 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-21 | 84.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-21 | 39.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-21 | 128.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-21 | 90.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-21 | 70.47 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-21 | 95.38 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-21 | 58.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-21 | 58.50 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-21 | 212.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-21 | 14.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-21 | 105.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-21 | 88.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-21 | 56.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-21 | 76.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-21 | 160.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-21 | 79.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-21 | 48.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-21 | 178.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-21 | 93.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-21 | 47.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-21 | 106.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-21 | 92.74 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-21 | 56.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-21 | 83.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-21 | 50.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-21 | 101.60 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-21 | 75.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-21 | 106.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-21 | 708.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-21 | 45.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-21 | 75.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-21 | 748.28 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-21 | 584.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-21 | 91.56 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-21 | 53.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-21 | 91.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-21 | 53.74 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-21 | 62.28 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-21 | 172.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-21 | 100.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-21 | 180.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-21 | 369.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-21 | 107.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-21 | 46.77 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-21 | 97.74 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-21 | 32.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-21 | 28.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-21 | 121.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-21 | 247.44 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-21 | 75.73 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-21 | 75.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-21 | 314.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-21 | 296.54 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-21 | 222.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-21 | 44.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | fc2dc9655a8f...97b4ccf6 |
| manifest.yaml | c5b1707bf8d5...756c2899 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 46fb8b21c5a2...f4394061 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | abac7369e7e0...1c344ca6 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 94c99a055fa8...9a01946e |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 78ec7cf3bd1e...b46d200b |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | d0dc68ec6fbb...b3ff943e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | aa0dfa180583...cf75f45b |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |