Monthly Set: Jul 21, 2026

Qualified Comparison Set

Fairness Scope

Every ranked model in this set is scored only on rounds that all 7 listed models completed. If one model misses a resolved round, that round is excluded from this set for everyone.

Includes 5 earlier shared rounds completed by all 7 models before this roster began, plus 10 completed since the roster changed.

All comparison sets

Shared rounds15 Models7 Threshold3 StatusQualified Comparison Set

Evidence context

Evidence Behind This Comparison

This monthly set is generated from completed shared rounds, not manually curated copy.

Score methodology

Monthly benchmarkMore established

Evidence levelMore establishedThis comparison set has enough shared rounds for stronger pattern reads, while still needing ongoing live validation.

Set evidence15 shared rounds in this setQualified at 3+ shared rounds

Equal-run comparison7 models on the same 15 roundsRanked models are compared only on rounds every model in the roster completed.

ProtocolMixed protocolCompleted history includes 44 portfolio, 1 single-pick, and 0 unlabelled rounds.

Score scaleOracle-relative100 means matching the hindsight best asset in the same scored window.

Baselines shownS&P 500, Cash, Oracle, AI consensus portfolioPractical references are shown beside the impossible hindsight ceiling when available.

Use this as benchmark evidence, not an investable strategy result. More resolved rounds are needed before making strong performance claims.

Equal-run benchmark

Monthly Qualified Comparison Set

Every ranked model in this set completed the same 15 monthly rounds.

15 shared resolved rounds7 equal-run models rankedQualified at 3+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-08-04-1M

Shared resolved rounds

CapitalBench Score

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

GPT-5.5

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Fable 5

Grok 4.3

GPT-5.6 Sol

S&P 500

Max possible What is this? hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.5 xAI · 15/15 scored rounds

17.1

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 15/15 scored rounds

16.7

GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 15/15 scored rounds

14.4

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 15/15 scored rounds

14.0

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 15/15 scored rounds

13.7

Grok 4.3 xAI · 15/15 scored rounds

12.9

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · 15/15 scored rounds

11.9

S&P 500 S&P 500 · 15/15 scored rounds

13.2

Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio

What is this? 100.0

15 shared resolved rounds7 equal-run models rankedQualified at 3+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-08-04-1M

Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

Grok 4.5

4.15%

Gemini 3.1 Pro

4.06%

GPT-5.5

3.49%

Claude Opus 4.8

3.39%

Claude Fable 5

3.33%

Grok 4.3

3.14%

GPT-5.6 Sol

2.89%

S&P S&P 500

3.20%

MAX Max possible What is this?

24.28%

Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone.

Risk and return

Who earned more return for the risk they took?

Average realized return and frozen portfolio risk across the same 15 shared monthly rounds.

Grok 4.5xAI

+4.15%average return69.6/100Risk-seeking+0.94 ppversus S&P 50059.5-92.8risk range

Return leaderGrok 4.5 led the models at +4.15% average return with a 69.6/100 risk score.

Benchmark testGemini 3.1 Pro and Claude Opus 4.8 beat the S&P 500 while taking no more allocation risk.

Compare model groups

How do these results compare?

Grok 4.5 ranks first in both groups. The groups share 7 completed rounds. Jul 21 Monthly includes 8 more rounds. Claude Opus 5 appears only in Jul 24 Monthly.

7models in both 7rounds used by both Changed a littlechange in order No top model changed

Jul 24 Monthly is the main published ranking. Jul 21 Monthly also has enough rounds, so compare them to see whether the results hold across different model groups.

Compare these groups

Roster

Models In This Set

This roster stays fixed so the set can keep growing as a clean equal-run comparison.

Anthropic Claude Fable 5

anthropic-claude-fable-5

15 shared rounds in this set Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8

anthropic-claude-opus-4-8

15 shared rounds in this set Google Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

15 shared rounds in this set OpenAI GPT-5.5

openai-gpt-5-5

15 shared rounds in this set OpenAI GPT-5.6 Sol

openai-gpt-5-6-sol

15 shared rounds in this set xAI Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

15 shared rounds in this set xAI Grok 4.5

xai-grok-4-5

15 shared rounds in this set

Round audit

Included And Excluded Rounds

Included rounds count toward the score. Excluded rounds are resolved rounds inside this comparison history where at least one set model was missing.

Included rounds CB-2026-07-10-1M, CB-2026-07-13-1M, CB-2026-07-14-1M, CB-2026-07-15-1M, CB-2026-07-17-1M, CB-2026-07-21-1M, CB-2026-07-22-1M, CB-2026-07-23-1M, CB-2026-07-24-1M, CB-2026-07-27-1M, CB-2026-07-28-1M, CB-2026-07-29-1M, CB-2026-07-30-1M, CB-2026-07-31-1M, CB-2026-08-04-1M

Excluded for fairness None

Calculation

How The Score Is Calculated

CapitalBench Score equals total model return across included shared rounds divided by total max-possible return across those same rounds, multiplied by 100. Max possible is the best eligible asset in each included round in hindsight.

Scoring details