Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Using the latest available interim close, Gemini 3.1 Pro in CB-2026-10-10-1M is ahead of the S&P 500 by +7.62 percentage points, while Grok 4.5 in CB-2026-10-27-1M is at -6.41 percentage points.
Live alpha is interim model return minus interim S&P 500 return. It is provisional until the round reaches its official score date.
Its score is 39.3 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Grok 4.5 is lowest at 6.3.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 77.6 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
6 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-11-04 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-20261027-1W
31,048 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-27-1W
- Decision date: 2026-10-28
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-27T22:34:08Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-28T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-10-28
- Exit date: 2026-11-04
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench factual briefing — October 27, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Inflation and policy
- BLS, October 14 release: September CPI increased 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually; core CPI increased 0.3% and 2.6%. Food was unchanged monthly while energy rose 5.2%.
- BLS, October 15 release: September final-demand PPI increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, increases were 0.5% and 5.0%. These are different price measures, not interchangeable inflation rates.
- The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimously. Its October 27–28 meeting is in progress at this briefing's cutoff; no decision from that meeting is included.
## Households, activity, and employment
- The Conference Board's October 27 release reported October consumer confidence at 91.7, up 7.5 points from September's revised 84.2. The Present Situation Index rose to 120.4, and Expectations to 72.6. Survey responses were collected October 1–21; these are preliminary survey readings, not realized spending. The publisher said confidence remained on its longer-term declining trend despite the monthly rise.
- Census Bureau, October 15: September retail and food-service sales increased 0.8% monthly, with reported uncertainty ±0.4 percentage points, and 6.3% annually, ±0.5 points. Sales are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.
- BLS, October 2: September payroll employment increased 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. These survey estimates can be revised.
- National Association of Realtors, October 20: September pending home sales declined 7.3% monthly and 11.3% annually, with declines in every region. Pending contracts are not completed home sales, and financing or closing delays can affect timing.
## Market observations
- AP, October 27 closes: S&P 500 7,722.60 (+0.6%); Dow 52,377.57 (up less than 0.1%); Nasdaq Composite 26,477.81 (+1.2%); Russell 2000 2,818.87 (+1.2%).
- Most S&P 500 constituents fell; AP reported relatively steady Treasury yields. Index levels are not ETF scoring prices.
## Energy and international policy
- EIA's October 21 report, for the week ending October 16, reported refinery inputs of 16.6 million barrels daily at 93.4% utilization. Crude imports averaged 5.8 million barrels daily, down 291,000 from the prior week, while the four-week average was 2.8% above a year earlier. These are weekly estimates, not an October 27 oil-price quote.
- ECB, September 10 decision effective September 16: deposit, refinancing, and marginal lending rates increased to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%. Staff forecasts for 2026 were 0.9% growth and 3.0% inflation. Forecasts are not outcomes; the ECB described substantial uncertainty, upside inflation risks, and downside growth risks.
## Scheduled information and scoring-window boundaries
- The October 27–28 FOMC meeting concludes on the prospective entry day, before its closing price. Its outcome is unknown at this research cutoff, and is not a post-entry event in the return window.
- BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; BLS schedules third-quarter Employment Cost Index for October 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BLS September job openings are scheduled November 3 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, and BEA September international trade November 4 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The federal general election is November 3. These dates precede the weekly November 4 exit close and fall within the monthly window; no outcome is assumed.
- Additional monthly-window releases include BLS October employment November 6, October CPI November 10, and October PPI November 13, all at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BEA schedules second-estimate third-quarter GDP and October personal income/outlays for November 25 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Release calendars can change.
Complete mechanical history stops at the October 27 close. Entry is the prospective October 28 close; exits are November 4 and November 30. No entry or holding-window outcome is known or included. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing does not rank options, recommend allocations, or map facts to expected returns.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-27-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-28'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-28T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-5f7392bbcea6
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-27T22:31:49.141691+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-4-argon
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-10-28'
exit_date: '2026-11-04'
created_at: '2026-10-27T22:31:49.141691+00:00'
notes: Fresh direct public-source research October 27 America/Toronto; complete mechanical context through October 27 close. Prospective October 28 close entry. Six-model frozen V3 roster; participant tools and search disabled.# CapitalBench factual briefing — October 27, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Inflation and policy
- BLS, October 14 release: September CPI increased 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually; core CPI increased 0.3% and 2.6%. Food was unchanged monthly while energy rose 5.2%.
- BLS, October 15 release: September final-demand PPI increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, increases were 0.5% and 5.0%. These are different price measures, not interchangeable inflation rates.
- The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimously. Its October 27–28 meeting is in progress at this briefing's cutoff; no decision from that meeting is included.
## Households, activity, and employment
- The Conference Board's October 27 release reported October consumer confidence at 91.7, up 7.5 points from September's revised 84.2. The Present Situation Index rose to 120.4, and Expectations to 72.6. Survey responses were collected October 1–21; these are preliminary survey readings, not realized spending. The publisher said confidence remained on its longer-term declining trend despite the monthly rise.
- Census Bureau, October 15: September retail and food-service sales increased 0.8% monthly, with reported uncertainty ±0.4 percentage points, and 6.3% annually, ±0.5 points. Sales are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.
- BLS, October 2: September payroll employment increased 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. These survey estimates can be revised.
- National Association of Realtors, October 20: September pending home sales declined 7.3% monthly and 11.3% annually, with declines in every region. Pending contracts are not completed home sales, and financing or closing delays can affect timing.
## Market observations
- AP, October 27 closes: S&P 500 7,722.60 (+0.6%); Dow 52,377.57 (up less than 0.1%); Nasdaq Composite 26,477.81 (+1.2%); Russell 2000 2,818.87 (+1.2%).
- Most S&P 500 constituents fell; AP reported relatively steady Treasury yields. Index levels are not ETF scoring prices.
## Energy and international policy
- EIA's October 21 report, for the week ending October 16, reported refinery inputs of 16.6 million barrels daily at 93.4% utilization. Crude imports averaged 5.8 million barrels daily, down 291,000 from the prior week, while the four-week average was 2.8% above a year earlier. These are weekly estimates, not an October 27 oil-price quote.
- ECB, September 10 decision effective September 16: deposit, refinancing, and marginal lending rates increased to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%. Staff forecasts for 2026 were 0.9% growth and 3.0% inflation. Forecasts are not outcomes; the ECB described substantial uncertainty, upside inflation risks, and downside growth risks.
## Scheduled information and scoring-window boundaries
- The October 27–28 FOMC meeting concludes on the prospective entry day, before its closing price. Its outcome is unknown at this research cutoff, and is not a post-entry event in the return window.
- BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; BLS schedules third-quarter Employment Cost Index for October 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BLS September job openings are scheduled November 3 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, and BEA September international trade November 4 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The federal general election is November 3. These dates precede the weekly November 4 exit close and fall within the monthly window; no outcome is assumed.
- Additional monthly-window releases include BLS October employment November 6, October CPI November 10, and October PPI November 13, all at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BEA schedules second-estimate third-quarter GDP and October personal income/outlays for November 25 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Release calendars can change.
Complete mechanical history stops at the October 27 close. Entry is the prospective October 28 close; exits are November 4 and November 30. No entry or holding-window outcome is known or included. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing does not rank options, recommend allocations, or map facts to expected returns.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "339b0a702a7a3a9afe4d0dbfd6b903112b069467d01f55204345d1184bcdcc4c",
"manifest.yaml": "f129402e78b42bc664276e0952d4500c91facbf2be5b2c79e66bc70db672245f",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "fb5ab8adc818282c49cb189b6e69606f4b8511c2a66fe8160ec8c60922c10264",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "040c84d48a05c4f7e7180a4f01786156fc00f14068585b2cadf90b2e5741ebd0",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "70f4ad5c978b0d8348c2d44516f4874adff1f8d821da277975de91f563b90463",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "59548a20d7f2685d2bda0c3ea9debf2144b629a101dbbb0185a2ff6e4eff395e",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "766da6eff01a321842a9da7c7027f32e6f2c8f1de8c1c6f8d323d5e0e2168ee5",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "402964c5202a69a217445d6467dcc7bb4fa4593f44ddcf4d0927e264dd1c4b66",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "c86dfbb217e032991acc64cd3d0bcbb7f26d32639a67b7473af5122ac2230431",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-4-argon
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Only Brazil and Communications present genuine shock-reversal setups: both show sharp one-week relative drawdowns on elevated volume with no briefing evidence of fundamental deterioration, and Brazil's near-zero SPY correlation adds diversification across a heavy event week. Edges are modest, so probabilities sit just above the eligibility threshold; defensives (Staples, Large Value) rank next as low-beta hedges into FOMC and the election but lack reversal mechanics. Extended winners (Cyber, Software) and persistent losers (Silver, Ether, China) have no in-window support. Overall SPY remains a reasonable default.
Macro backdrop is stagflationary: hot CPI/PPI, a Fed hiking cycle with the FOMC decision landing on entry day, weak payrolls and housing, yet rising confidence and retail sales. SPY is near highs with narrow breadth (most constituents fell on Oct 27, RSP outperforming over 21 sessions). Week contains FOMC aftermath, GDP, ECI, the Nov 3 election and JOLTS, so event risk is elevated. Cross-sectional dispersion is moderate; a single idiosyncratic shock (Brazil -18%) dominates the slate. Most slate moves are either small or trend-supported, leaving few true overreaction setups.
{
"confidence": 0.565,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC decision on entry day could trigger a repricing in rates and dollar that extends EM and Brazil weakness",
"Brazil's -18% drop may reflect unreported country-specific fiscal or political news that continues, with 86% vol amplifying downside",
"Nov 3 US election and GDP/ECI data could spark a volatility spike that hurts beta-exposed Communications",
"Hot CPI/PPI with a hiking Fed raises risk of broad equity de-rating where overreaction picks fail to bounce"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-18.04% recent return and -20.20% active after +18.14% prior active, with volume z of 3.40",
"Low SPY correlation (0.07) and beta 0.33; 86% horizon vol",
"Quality score 0.751 driven by top prior trend and pullback ranks; briefing contains no Brazil-specific fundamental news"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-6.08% active over 5 sessions, 0.985 recent pullback rank, elevated volume z 1.22",
"Moderate vol 16.3% and beta 0.67; 12.96% below 52w high",
"Briefing supplies no sector-specific fundamental deterioration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.16% recent return after +6.20% prior active, quality score 0.760",
"Negative SPY beta (-0.29) offers hedge into FOMC and election event week",
"Hot CPI/PPI could compress margins; volume z 1.44"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 3.92 with only -0.21% recent return; 0.21% below 52w high",
"Prior active +2.61%, low vol 6.68%, drawdown -0.85%",
"RSP outperformed SPY 3.18% over 21 sessions, supporting broadening"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +9.00%, 2.05% from 52w high, quality score 0.698",
"September CPI energy +5.2%, USO +9.25% over 21 sessions",
"Negative SPY beta (-0.59) but no in-window oil catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Retail sales +0.8% monthly and confidence up 7.5 points supports consumer",
"Prior active +5.51% but recent active -0.12%, no real pullback",
"Pending home sales -7.3% and weak payrolls temper outlook"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; 1.21% from 52w high, 9.74% vol",
"Most constituents fell on Oct 27 despite +0.6% index"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+4.46% active over 5 sessions, recent pullback rank 0.015 (extended)",
"Volume z -0.54, beta 1.80; higher-for-longer rates headwind",
"No briefing catalyst supporting continuation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+9.25% over 21 sessions, prior active +6.62%, 3.33% from high",
"Refinery utilization 93.4% and imports down; 33.8% vol",
"Dollar rising (+1.46% 21s) and Fed hiking are headwinds"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -3.77% recent and -3.46% prior: persistent weakness, not a shock",
"23.75% below 52w high, volume z -0.10 shows no capitulation",
"Strong dollar and no China policy catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+9.13% active in 5 sessions, 0.32% from 52w high, pullback rank 0.000",
"Quality score 0.172, 32% vol, beta 1.64",
"No briefing catalyst; mean-reversion risk after sharp spike"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"53.45% below 52w high with prior active -5.60% and recent -5.76%: persistent downtrend",
"Dollar +1.46% over 21s, gold -1.51%, Fed hiking into hot inflation",
"36% vol, beta 1.94"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -9.35% and recent -3.78%, 44% below 52w high",
"Volume z -0.85 shows fading interest rather than capitulation",
"Tightening Fed and rising dollar weigh on crypto"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CHINA",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOFTWARE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BRAZIL": 35,
"COMMUNICATIONS": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: hot CPI/PPI, a Fed hiking cycle with the FOMC decision landing on entry day, weak payrolls and housing, yet rising confidence and retail sales. SPY is near highs with narrow breadth (most constituents fell on Oct 27, RSP outperforming over 21 sessions). Week contains FOMC aftermath, GDP, ECI, the Nov 3 election and JOLTS, so event risk is elevated. Cross-sectional dispersion is moderate; a single idiosyncratic shock (Brazil -18%) dominates the slate. Most slate moves are either small or trend-supported, leaving few true overreaction setups.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Brazil and Communications present genuine shock-reversal setups: both show sharp one-week relative drawdowns on elevated volume with no briefing evidence of fundamental deterioration, and Brazil's near-zero SPY correlation adds diversification across a heavy event week. Edges are modest, so probabilities sit just above the eligibility threshold; defensives (Staples, Large Value) rank next as low-beta hedges into FOMC and the election but lack reversal mechanics. Extended winners (Cyber, Software) and persistent losers (Silver, Ether, China) have no in-window support. Overall SPY remains a reasonable default.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: hot CPI/PPI, a Fed hiking cycle with the FOMC decision landing on entry day, weak payrolls and housing, yet rising confidence and retail sales. SPY is near highs with narrow breadth (most constituents fell on Oct 27, RSP outperforming over 21 sessions). Week contains FOMC aftermath, GDP, ECI, the Nov 3 election and JOLTS, so event risk is elevated. Cross-sectional dispersion is moderate; a single idiosyncratic shock (Brazil -18%) dominates the slate. Most slate moves are either small or trend-supported, leaving few true overreaction setups.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27460,
"latency_seconds": 42.83288802194875,
"output_tokens": 3757,
"total_tokens": 31217
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
Only Consumer Staples clears the eligibility bar: its pullback looks like an overreaction against a strong prior trend, and its defensive beta suits an event-heavy week. Brazil's shock lacks an identifiable cause, and its extreme volatility suggests real deterioration rather than an overreaction. The remaining candidates show no edge, so the unused slots default to SPY.
SPY is flat over 5 sessions while equal-weight outperformed and bonds rallied. The FOMC concludes on entry day with inflation still hot (CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3%). GDP, ECI, the election and JOLTS all fall inside the window. Active dispersion of 3.22% is moderate, and Brazil's shock is the outlier.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC outcome on entry day",
"Election-week volatility",
"Further policy or currency shock in Brazil",
"A risk-on rally that leaves defensives lagging"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +6.20% versus a 3-session pullback of -3.16%",
"Volume z 1.44; quality score 0.760",
"Negative SPY beta offers a hedge against election and FOMC risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-18.04% over 3 sessions on volume z 3.40",
"Volatility 86% suggests a regime or policy shock with no stated cause",
"Prior active +18.14%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 3.92 without a meaningful price move",
"Low volatility at 6.68%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -0.12% is not a meaningful pullback",
"Consumer confidence rose to 91.7"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.08% on volume z 1.22",
"Likely earnings-driven, so the move may persist"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +9.00%",
"CPI energy component rose 5.2%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.77% following a weak prior trend"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +4.46% with weak volume (z -0.54)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session return +9.25%",
"Volatility 33.8%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"53% below its 52-week high",
"Persistent weakness: prior active -5.60%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -9.35%",
"44% below its 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +9.13% leaves it extended",
"Quality score 0.172"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CHINA",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOFTWARE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CONSUMER_STAPLES": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is flat over 5 sessions while equal-weight outperformed and bonds rallied. The FOMC concludes on entry day with inflation still hot (CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3%). GDP, ECI, the election and JOLTS all fall inside the window. Active dispersion of 3.22% is moderate, and Brazil's shock is the outlier.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"BRAZIL",
"LARGE_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Consumer Staples clears the eligibility bar: its pullback looks like an overreaction against a strong prior trend, and its defensive beta suits an event-heavy week. Brazil's shock lacks an identifiable cause, and its extreme volatility suggests real deterioration rather than an overreaction. The remaining candidates show no edge, so the unused slots default to SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is flat over 5 sessions while equal-weight outperformed and bonds rallied. The FOMC concludes on entry day with inflation still hot (CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3%). GDP, ECI, the election and JOLTS all fall inside the window. Active dispersion of 3.22% is moderate, and Brazil's shock is the outlier.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27460,
"latency_seconds": 24.16385358001571,
"output_tokens": 2791,
"total_tokens": 30251
}
}google-gemini-4-argon
The top three ranked candidates—CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY (XLY), CONSUMER_STAPLES (XLP), and LARGE_VALUE (IWD)—possess the highest quality evidence scores in the slate (0.771, 0.760, and 0.732), combining strong 16-session prior relative strength with temporary recent pullbacks or volume dislocations. Resilient consumer confidence (91.7) and retail sales (+0.8% MoM) support consumer exposure, while pairing cyclical discretionary with negative-beta staples and low-volatility large-cap value balances macro and election risks better than high-volatility shock losers like EWZ or extended tech momentum.
Cross-sectional dispersion is moderate (5-session active dispersion at 3.22%) with broad breadth outperforming cap-weighted benchmarks (RSP beating SPY by 3.18% over 21 sessions). Macro data shows sticky inflation alongside rebounding consumer confidence (91.7) and retail sales (+0.8% monthly). With the October FOMC conclusion at entry and Q3 GDP, PCE, ECI, and the US general election inside the scoring window, high-quality value and consumer pullbacks with strong prior relative trends offer superior risk-adjusted setups over volatile idiosyncratic shocks.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Advance Q3 GDP, September PCE, and Q3 Employment Cost Index releases on October 29-30 could surprise to the upside on inflation, pressuring equities.",
"The November 3 US general election and November 3 JOLTS release introduce event and policy uncertainty right before the November 4 exit close.",
"Post-FOMC market repricing on the October 28 entry day could alter sector leadership and rate sensitivity across value and defensive equities."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score in the slate (0.771) with 0.925 prior active rank and mild recent active pullback (-0.12%).",
"Supported by October consumer confidence jumping 7.5 points to 91.7 and September retail sales rising 0.8% monthly."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.45,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong prior 16-session active return of +6.20% (0.940 rank) contrasted with a sharp 3-session drop of -3.16% on elevated volume (z=1.44).",
"Second-highest quality score on the slate (0.760) and negative SPY beta (-0.29) provide defensive ballast ahead of the Nov 3 election and macro releases."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High quality score (0.732) with minimal 21-session volatility (6.68%) and shallow max drawdown (-0.85%), dipping -0.21% over 3 sessions on extreme volume (z=3.92).",
"Aligns with broad market breadth outperformance (RSP +3.18% active return over 21 sessions) and steady Treasury yields."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Top-tier prior 16-session active return (+9.00%, 0.985 rank) and high quality score (0.698).",
"Supported by EIA data showing high refinery utilization (93.4%) and September CPI energy rising 5.2% monthly."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Scoring benchmark with 9.74% 21-session volatility and -2.45% max drawdown.",
"Lagged equal-weight S&P 500 by 0.69% over 5 sessions and 3.18% over 21 sessions."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Sharp 5-session active pullback of -6.08% (0.985 pullback rank) on elevated volume (z=1.22).",
"Weak prior 16-session active return (-1.34%) and -12.96% distance from 52-week high limit conviction below the 55% threshold."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong prior 16-session active return (+6.62%) and 5-session active return (+1.96%).",
"High 21-session volatility (33.78%) and negative beta (-2.24) create wide outcome dispersion."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Collapsed -18.04% over 3 sessions (-20.20% active over 5 sessions) with volume z-score of 3.40, completely erasing its +18.14% prior active gain.",
"Extreme 21-session volatility of 86.35% and -21.57% drawdown indicate a severe regime shock rather than a low-risk pullback."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent 5-session active surge of +4.46% occurred on below-average volume (z=-0.54).",
"Modest quality score (0.357) and high volatility (27.91%) with high beta (1.80) expose it to rate sensitivity."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extended short-term run (+9.13% 5-session active return) after negative prior 16-session active performance (-1.70%).",
"Lowest quality score in the slate (0.172) with high 21-session volatility (32.20%) and -10.16% max drawdown."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Persistent underperformance with -3.77% recent active return and -3.46% prior active return.",
"Trades 23.75% below its 52-week high with a low prior active rank (0.134) and no supportive catalyst in the briefing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Consecutive relative losses (-5.76% recent active, -5.60% prior active) while trading 53.45% below its 52-week high.",
"High volatility (36.15%) and rising US dollar (UUP +0.76% 5s, +1.46% 21s) weigh on precious metals."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.45,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Severe multi-week downtrend (-3.78% recent active, -9.35% prior active) and 44.33% below its 52-week high.",
"Weak quality score (0.313) with 0.030 prior active rank, 34.98% volatility, and declining volume (z=-0.85)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CHINA",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOFTWARE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY": 35,
"CONSUMER_STAPLES": 35,
"LARGE_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"LARGE_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Cross-sectional dispersion is moderate (5-session active dispersion at 3.22%) with broad breadth outperforming cap-weighted benchmarks (RSP beating SPY by 3.18% over 21 sessions). Macro data shows sticky inflation alongside rebounding consumer confidence (91.7) and retail sales (+0.8% monthly). With the October FOMC conclusion at entry and Q3 GDP, PCE, ECI, and the US general election inside the scoring window, high-quality value and consumer pullbacks with strong prior relative trends offer superior risk-adjusted setups over volatile idiosyncratic shocks.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"LARGE_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-4-argon",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The top three ranked candidates—CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY (XLY), CONSUMER_STAPLES (XLP), and LARGE_VALUE (IWD)—possess the highest quality evidence scores in the slate (0.771, 0.760, and 0.732), combining strong 16-session prior relative strength with temporary recent pullbacks or volume dislocations. Resilient consumer confidence (91.7) and retail sales (+0.8% MoM) support consumer exposure, while pairing cyclical discretionary with negative-beta staples and low-volatility large-cap value balances macro and election risks better than high-volatility shock losers like EWZ or extended tech momentum.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Cross-sectional dispersion is moderate (5-session active dispersion at 3.22%) with broad breadth outperforming cap-weighted benchmarks (RSP beating SPY by 3.18% over 21 sessions). Macro data shows sticky inflation alongside rebounding consumer confidence (91.7) and retail sales (+0.8% monthly). With the October FOMC conclusion at entry and Q3 GDP, PCE, ECI, and the US general election inside the scoring window, high-quality value and consumer pullbacks with strong prior relative trends offer superior risk-adjusted setups over volatile idiosyncratic shocks.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18539,
"latency_seconds": 43.83862768008839,
"output_tokens": 3565,
"total_tokens": 22104
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Energy has the strongest modest directional edge, but it is a continuation case rather than an eligible reversal. Staples alone clears the overreaction threshold, supported by its prior relative strength and defensive macro fit. Discretionary has a small catalyst-based edge, not a meaningful dislocation. Brazil's rebound potential warrants recognition, but unexplained extreme risk prevents an eligible overreaction designation. The rule therefore retains substantial benchmark exposure.
Active-return dispersion of 3.22% and Brazil's exceptional dislocation indicate substantial cross-sectional risk. Energy has independent inflation and refinery-demand support, while selected defensive pullbacks merit reversal consideration. Strong nominal consumption conflicts with weak employment and housing, limiting confidence in broad cyclical continuation. GDP, income/outlays, ECI and the election fall inside the holding window; the initial FOMC announcement precedes the entry close.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The unknown FOMC outcome occurs before entry and could materially reset prices and relative opportunities.",
"GDP, personal income/outlays and ECI could reveal either renewed inflation pressure or weaker demand, reversing sector preferences.",
"November 3 election developments can cause abrupt sector and broad-market repricing before the exit close.",
"Staples' decline may reflect persistent margin pressure rather than temporary selling; elevated producer prices challenge the reversal thesis.",
"Brazil's unexplained dislocation could reflect either lasting impairment or a rapid rebound far larger than the central forecast."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"September CPI energy rose 5.2%; refinery utilization was 93.4% in the supplied EIA report.",
"Prior active return was 9.00%, with a relatively shallow 2.05% drawdown.",
"Weak payroll growth and upcoming activity releases create demand-side reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.65,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The 3-session decline of 3.16% followed a prior active gain of 6.20%; quality score is 0.760.",
"Volume z-score of 1.44 suggests an unusually concentrated selloff, although it does not establish capitulation.",
"Payroll growth of 29,000 and falling pending home sales support defensive demand; rising producer prices remain a margin risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.55,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Consumer confidence rose 7.5 points and nominal retail sales increased 0.8% monthly.",
"Prior active return was 5.51%, quality score 0.771 and drawdown 2.10%.",
"Recent active underperformance of only 0.12% is insufficient to establish an overreaction; October 29 consumption data can change the outlook."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volatility of 6.68% and drawdown of 0.85% are below SPY's corresponding measures.",
"Prior active gain of 2.61% accompanies a volume z-score of 3.92, but recent active return remains positive.",
"Elevated inflation and the September rate increase provide a relative rationale for less growth-sensitive exposure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 20.20% sharply reverses a prior active gain of 18.14%, providing a substantial reversal setup.",
"Volume z-score is 3.40, volatility 86.35% and drawdown 21.57%; the quality score is largely driven by trend and pullback ranks.",
"The briefing supplies no Brazil-specific explanation or repair catalyst, preventing confident classification as either overreaction or fundamental deterioration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Refinery inputs of 16.6 million barrels daily and lower weekly crude imports provide limited independent support.",
"Prior active return was 6.62%, but volatility is 33.78% and recent active strength already totals 1.96%.",
"The EIA observations are dated estimates rather than evidence of current inventory scarcity."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 6.08% and volume z-score of 1.22 support testing a short-term rebound.",
"Prior active return was already negative at 1.34%, with a 7.88% drawdown.",
"No sector-specific earnings, valuation or repair catalyst is supplied to distinguish mispricing from deterioration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the scoring benchmark and therefore has zero excess return relative to itself.",
"The latest index advance occurred while most constituents fell; equal-weight performance nevertheless exceeded SPY over both supplied mechanical horizons."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active gain of 4.46% exceeds the prior active gain of 0.97%, with below-baseline volume.",
"Beta is 1.80 and volatility 27.91%, leaving substantial sensitivity to inflation and rate repricing.",
"No software-specific fundamental catalyst supports extrapolating the rally."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns were negative at 3.77% and 3.46%, respectively.",
"Volume z-score of -0.10 offers little evidence of capitulation.",
"No China-specific policy or growth catalyst is supplied for the scoring week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 5.76% follows a prior active loss of 5.60%, rather than interrupting a strong trend.",
"Volatility is 36.15% and drawdown 12.29%; volume is near baseline.",
"Inflation provides a possible hedge rationale, but dollar strength and monetary tightening complicate the reversal case."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active loss of 9.35% precedes another 3.78% active decline.",
"Drawdown is 14.60% and volume z-score -0.85, offering little capitulation confirmation.",
"The briefing supplies no network, regulatory or flow catalyst for a recovery."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active gain of 9.13% follows prior active underperformance of 1.70%.",
"The fund is 0.32% below its high despite 32.20% volatility and a 10.16% drawdown.",
"No cybersecurity-specific catalyst independently supports continuation; the sharp rally is vulnerable to retracement."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
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"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CHINA",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOFTWARE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CONSUMER_STAPLES": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
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{
"eligible": false,
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"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
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"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
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"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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},
{
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"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
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"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
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"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
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"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Active-return dispersion of 3.22% and Brazil's exceptional dislocation indicate substantial cross-sectional risk. Energy has independent inflation and refinery-demand support, while selected defensive pullbacks merit reversal consideration. Strong nominal consumption conflicts with weak employment and housing, limiting confidence in broad cyclical continuation. GDP, income/outlays, ECI and the election fall inside the holding window; the initial FOMC announcement precedes the entry close.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY"
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}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy has the strongest modest directional edge, but it is a continuation case rather than an eligible reversal. Staples alone clears the overreaction threshold, supported by its prior relative strength and defensive macro fit. Discretionary has a small catalyst-based edge, not a meaningful dislocation. Brazil's rebound potential warrants recognition, but unexplained extreme risk prevents an eligible overreaction designation. The rule therefore retains substantial benchmark exposure.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Active-return dispersion of 3.22% and Brazil's exceptional dislocation indicate substantial cross-sectional risk. Energy has independent inflation and refinery-demand support, while selected defensive pullbacks merit reversal consideration. Strong nominal consumption conflicts with weak employment and housing, limiting confidence in broad cyclical continuation. GDP, income/outlays, ECI and the election fall inside the holding window; the initial FOMC announcement precedes the entry close.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1W",
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}xai-grok-4-5
Only high-conviction overreactions with p_beat>=55 are Brazil, Communications, and Staples; extreme Brazil dislocation leads, defensive staples and XLC pullbacks follow, while energy/value lack overreaction label and continuations carry fade risk into FOMC/data week, so prefer SPY fill diagnostically.
Elevated cross-sectional dispersion with extreme EM shock in Brazil, mixed sector moves, pending FOMC outcome on entry day, and data releases inside the week favor selective reversal over pure continuation; SPY remains competitive amid policy uncertainty.
{
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"Brazil idiosyncratic political/commodity shock may not mean-revert in one week",
"High horizon vol in EM/crypto/energy can dominate excess ranges",
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"rank": 4,
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"negative SPY corr -0.29 and shallow drawdown -2.05%",
"oil complex medium strength"
],
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{
"evidence": [
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{
"evidence": [
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"quality 0.431 and distance -23.75%",
"no specific in-window catalyst"
],
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"p_top3_pct": 10,
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active +9.13% and near 52w high",
"quality only 0.172 and high vol 32.20%",
"continuation risk after sharp move"
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
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],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active -5.76% with deep 52w distance -53.45%",
"quality 0.344 and high vol",
"prior also negative"
],
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"mechanism": "reversal",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
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"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
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{
"evidence": [
"active -3.78% after prior -9.35%",
"quality 0.313 and distance -44.33%",
"high vol crypto beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
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"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
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},
{
"evidence": [
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],
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],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CHINA",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOFTWARE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
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{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"rank": 4,
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},
{
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"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
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}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Elevated cross-sectional dispersion with extreme EM shock in Brazil, mixed sector moves, pending FOMC outcome on entry day, and data releases inside the week favor selective reversal over pure continuation; SPY remains competitive amid policy uncertainty.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only high-conviction overreactions with p_beat>=55 are Brazil, Communications, and Staples; extreme Brazil dislocation leads, defensive staples and XLC pullbacks follow, while energy/value lack overreaction label and continuations carry fade risk into FOMC/data week, so prefer SPY fill diagnostically.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Elevated cross-sectional dispersion with extreme EM shock in Brazil, mixed sector moves, pending FOMC outcome on entry day, and data releases inside the week favor selective reversal over pure continuation; SPY remains competitive amid policy uncertainty.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1W",
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"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-6
The only slate names that combine a labeled overreaction with at least 55% odds versus SPY are Brazil after an 18% weekly air-pocket, communications after a 6-point active drop, and staples after a quality pullback. Energy/oil have medium-horizon support but not overreaction labels. High Brazil vol, unknown FOMC, and election-week data argue for preferring the benchmark diagnostically even while ranking those three first.
Five-session active-return dispersion is 3.22% with 70% of assets positive, equal-weight beating SPY, and a hot September CPI/PPI plus an in-progress FOMC and in-window election/GDP prints. Breadth and energy strength coexist with a Brazil shock and communications/staples pullbacks, so the week is mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC decision on entry day can reprice rates, growth, and high-beta EM simultaneously.",
"Brazil 86% horizon vol can extend the -18% shock rather than mean-revert in one week.",
"November 3 election plus Oct 29-30 GDP/ECI and Nov 3 JOLTS can dominate the Nov 4 close.",
"Hot September CPI/PPI (0.6%/1.3% m/m) can keep duration and defensives unstable if the Fed stays hawkish."
],
"metadata": {
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{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return -18.04% with prior 16-session active return +18.14% and volume z 3.40.",
"Horizon vol 86.35% and max drawdown -21.57% with SPY corr 0.07.",
"Quality evidence score 0.751 from top prior-active and pullback ranks despite worst vol rank."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
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],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return -3.57% and 5-session active return -6.08% versus SPY +0.75% over 3 sessions.",
"Recent pullback rank 0.985 with quality evidence score 0.548.",
"Volume z 1.22 and 52w-high distance -12.96%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return -3.16% after prior 16-session active +6.20% and quality score 0.760.",
"Negative SPY corr -0.19 and beta -0.29 with volume z 1.44.",
"Conference Board confidence rose 7.5 points in October while September retail sales rose 0.8%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +9.00% with weekly +0.95% and quality score 0.698.",
"Negative SPY corr -0.29; energy CPI component rose 5.2% monthly in September.",
"USO 21-session return +9.25% in mechanical market state."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +6.62% and 5-session active +1.96% with SPY corr -0.58.",
"EIA week ending Oct 16 showed 93.4% refinery utilization and imports down 291k b/d.",
"Horizon vol 33.78% and 52w-high distance only -3.33%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 3.92 with weekly return -0.21% and low 21s vol 6.68%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.732; RSP minus SPY +0.69% over 5 sessions.",
"SPY beta 0.53 and 52w-high distance -0.21%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.771 with prior 16-session active +5.51% and weekly +0.38%.",
"Pending home sales -7.3% monthly; consumer confidence still described as on a longer-term declining trend.",
"SPY corr 0.66 and beta 1.04."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return 0.08% and 21-session 0.53% with 52w-high distance -1.21%.",
"AP Oct 27: S&P 500 +0.6% while most constituents fell.",
"FOMC Oct 27-28 outcome unknown at cutoff; GDP and ECI print inside the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session active -3.77% and prior 16-session active -3.46% with weekly +0.12%.",
"Quality score 0.431; 52w-high distance -23.75%.",
"Volume z -0.10, not a volume dislocation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session active +4.46% and weekly +2.81% with beta 1.80.",
"Quality evidence score 0.357 and recent pullback rank 0.015.",
"Nasdaq Composite +1.2% on Oct 27 closes per AP."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +6.65% and 5-session active +9.13% near 52w high (-0.32%).",
"Quality score 0.172 with recent pullback rank 0.000.",
"Horizon vol 32.20% and max drawdown -10.16%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session active -5.76% and prior 16-session active -5.60%; weekly -0.36%.",
"52w-high distance -53.45% with vol 36.15% and quality 0.344.",
"IAU 5-session return -1.43% in mechanical market state."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active -9.35% and 5-session active -3.78% with weekly -1.58%.",
"Quality score 0.313; 52w-high distance -44.33%; volume z -0.85.",
"SPY corr 0.27 and vol 34.98%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CHINA",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOFTWARE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BRAZIL": 35,
"COMMUNICATIONS": 35,
"CONSUMER_STAPLES": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Five-session active-return dispersion is 3.22% with 70% of assets positive, equal-weight beating SPY, and a hot September CPI/PPI plus an in-progress FOMC and in-window election/GDP prints. Breadth and energy strength coexist with a Brazil shock and communications/staples pullbacks, so the week is mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The only slate names that combine a labeled overreaction with at least 55% odds versus SPY are Brazil after an 18% weekly air-pocket, communications after a 6-point active drop, and staples after a quality pullback. Energy/oil have medium-horizon support but not overreaction labels. High Brazil vol, unknown FOMC, and election-week data argue for preferring the benchmark diagnostically even while ranking those three first.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Five-session active-return dispersion is 3.22% with 70% of assets positive, equal-weight beating SPY, and a hot September CPI/PPI plus an in-progress FOMC and in-window election/GDP prints. Breadth and energy strength coexist with a Brazil shock and communications/staples pullbacks, so the week is mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16943,
"latency_seconds": 37.78686083992943,
"output_tokens": 2673,
"reasoning_tokens": 424,
"total_tokens": 20040
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Brazil Equities (EWZ)35%Communication Services Sector (XLC)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 4 Argon google-gemini-4-argon | Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)35%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)35%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Brazil Equities (EWZ)35%Communication Services Sector (XLC)35%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Brazil Equities (EWZ)35%Communication Services Sector (XLC)35%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-28 | 207.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-28 | 91.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-28 | 27.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-28 | 29.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-28 | 116.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-28 | 157.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-28 | 46.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-28 | 33.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-28 | 64.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-28 | 20.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-28 | 61.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-28 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-28 | 49.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-28 | 103.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-28 | 115.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-28 | 86.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-28 | 40.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-28 | 166.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-28 | 107.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-28 | 70.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-28 | 91.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-28 | 57.02 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-28 | 68.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-28 | 217.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-28 | 53.60 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-28 | 103.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-28 | 87.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-28 | 56.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-28 | 76.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-28 | 179.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-28 | 77.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-28 | 46.79 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-28 | 168.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-28 | 90.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-28 | 47.28 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-28 | 104.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-28 | 94.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-28 | 58.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-28 | 80.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-28 | 51.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-28 | 101.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-28 | 74.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-28 | 103.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-28 | 725.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-28 | 42.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-28 | 72.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-28 | 772.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-28 | 567.67 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-28 | 91.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-28 | 49.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-28 | 111.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-28 | 40.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-28 | 64.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-28 | 165.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-28 | 108.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-28 | 191.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-28 | 379.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-28 | 106.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-28 | 47.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-28 | 95.89 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-28 | 35.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-28 | 29.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-28 | 123.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-28 | 258.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-28 | 75.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-28 | 73.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-28 | 303.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-28 | 281.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-28 | 214.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-28 | 42.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 339b0a702a7a...4bcdcc4c |
| manifest.yaml | f129402e78b4...b672245f |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | fb5ab8adc818...22c10264 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 040c84d48a05...5741ebd0 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 70f4ad5c978b...63b90463 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 59548a20d7f2...4eff395e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 766da6eff01a...e2168ee5 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 402964c5202a...dd1c4b66 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |