Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Using the latest available interim close, Gemini 3.1 Pro in CB-2026-10-10-1M is ahead of the S&P 500 by +7.62 percentage points, while Grok 4.5 in CB-2026-10-27-1M is at -6.41 percentage points.
Live alpha is interim model return minus interim S&P 500 return. It is provisional until the round reaches its official score date.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-11-09 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-20261010-1M
31,249 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-10-1M
- Decision date: 2026-10-10
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-11T00:51:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-12T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-10-09
- Exit date: 2026-11-09
- Entry rule: Use the October 9, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Exit rule: Use the November 9, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — October 10, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-11T00:51:00Z. Latest completed U.S. session: October 9. Weekly exit: October 16; monthly exit: November 9.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Economic releases
BLS reported September payroll growth of 29,000 and unemployment of 4.2% on October 2. July and August payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 60,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually. Payroll estimates are preliminary and subject to sampling error and revisions.
BEA's September 30 release reported August real consumer spending up 0.6% and nominal spending up 0.9%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually; excluding food and energy, increases were 0.2% and 3.0%. These estimates incorporated an annual historical update.
ISM reported September services activity at 54.9, down from 55.4 in August, with business activity at 56.5, new orders at 59.8, and employment at 50.1. Its prices index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. These diffusion indexes measure the breadth of survey responses rather than the magnitude of output changes.
The Census Bureau's October 8 wholesale report placed August sales at $817.5 billion, up 1.8% monthly and 15.6% annually. Inventories were $964.2 billion, up 0.5% monthly and 6.4% annually, and the inventories-to-sales ratio was 1.18 versus 1.28 a year earlier. July sales growth was revised from 0.8% to 1.0%. Values are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for prices and can be revised.
BEA and Census reported an August goods-and-services trade deficit of $105.6 billion on October 6, versus a revised $92.8 billion in July. Exports were $315.2 billion and imports $420.8 billion, up 1.4% and 4.3% monthly. Headline trade values are not price adjusted.
## Policy and cross-asset observations
Federal Reserve minutes released October 7 record unanimous support at the September meeting for raising the policy range to 3.75%-4.00%. Most participants assessed that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end, while emphasizing that subsequent decisions depend on incoming information. Participants described solid activity and elevated inflation; several also noted pressure on lower-income households from energy costs. The minutes describe the September meeting, not a new October policy decision.
Treasury's October 9 par yields were 4.47% at one year, 4.80% at two years, 5.02% at five years, 5.24% at ten years, and 5.60% at thirty years. On October 8 those yields were 4.44%, 4.75%, 4.99%, 5.22%, and 5.60%. These yields are derived from indicative quotations rather than transaction prices.
The October 9 U.S. close showed the S&P 500 up 0.6% to 7,811.54, the Dow up 0.8% to 51,654.95, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.6% to 27,366.17, and the Russell 2000 up 0.5% to 2,806.98. Their full-week changes were +1.2%, +0.9%, +0.6%, and -0.9%, respectively. CapitalBench's official ETF entry prices are supplied separately.
EIA's October 6 energy outlook forecast fourth-quarter Brent crude at $105 per barrel, $14 above its prior forecast, while estimating September Middle East production shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day versus 5.8 million in August. Its forecast inputs were completed October 1 and did not specifically incorporate later events. EIA's October 7 weekly report placed national distillate stocks at 105.1 million barrels for October 2, versus 121.6 million a year earlier; East Coast stocks were 21.7 million versus 30.2 million. Weekly estimates can be revised and displayed totals are rounded.
## Scheduled releases
Inside the weekly horizon, September CPI is scheduled for October 14 at 08:30 ET, PPI for October 15 at 08:30 ET, and import/export prices for October 16 at 08:30 ET. The holiday-delayed EIA petroleum report is scheduled for October 15 at 12:00 ET.
The monthly horizon additionally includes the October 27-28 FOMC meeting; advance third-quarter GDP and September income/PCE on October 29 at 08:30 ET; the Employment Cost Index on October 30; manufacturing activity on November 2; job openings on November 3; international trade and services activity on November 4; preliminary productivity on November 5; and October employment on November 6. September wholesale sales and inventories are scheduled for November 9 at 10:00 ET, before the monthly exit close. All scheduled outcomes are unknown at the cutoff.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-10-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-10-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-10'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-12T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-11T00:49:54.787283+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the October 9, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
exit_rule: Use the November 9, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
entry_date: '2026-10-09'
exit_date: '2026-11-09'
created_at: '2026-10-11T00:49:54.787283+00:00'
notes: 'Weekend decision round using the latest completed U.S. session, October 9, as entry. Fresh public-source research cutoff: 2026-10-11T00:51:00Z.'# Market Briefing — October 10, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-11T00:51:00Z. Latest completed U.S. session: October 9. Weekly exit: October 16; monthly exit: November 9.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Economic releases
BLS reported September payroll growth of 29,000 and unemployment of 4.2% on October 2. July and August payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 60,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually. Payroll estimates are preliminary and subject to sampling error and revisions.
BEA's September 30 release reported August real consumer spending up 0.6% and nominal spending up 0.9%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually; excluding food and energy, increases were 0.2% and 3.0%. These estimates incorporated an annual historical update.
ISM reported September services activity at 54.9, down from 55.4 in August, with business activity at 56.5, new orders at 59.8, and employment at 50.1. Its prices index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. These diffusion indexes measure the breadth of survey responses rather than the magnitude of output changes.
The Census Bureau's October 8 wholesale report placed August sales at $817.5 billion, up 1.8% monthly and 15.6% annually. Inventories were $964.2 billion, up 0.5% monthly and 6.4% annually, and the inventories-to-sales ratio was 1.18 versus 1.28 a year earlier. July sales growth was revised from 0.8% to 1.0%. Values are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for prices and can be revised.
BEA and Census reported an August goods-and-services trade deficit of $105.6 billion on October 6, versus a revised $92.8 billion in July. Exports were $315.2 billion and imports $420.8 billion, up 1.4% and 4.3% monthly. Headline trade values are not price adjusted.
## Policy and cross-asset observations
Federal Reserve minutes released October 7 record unanimous support at the September meeting for raising the policy range to 3.75%-4.00%. Most participants assessed that another increase would likely be appropriate by year end, while emphasizing that subsequent decisions depend on incoming information. Participants described solid activity and elevated inflation; several also noted pressure on lower-income households from energy costs. The minutes describe the September meeting, not a new October policy decision.
Treasury's October 9 par yields were 4.47% at one year, 4.80% at two years, 5.02% at five years, 5.24% at ten years, and 5.60% at thirty years. On October 8 those yields were 4.44%, 4.75%, 4.99%, 5.22%, and 5.60%. These yields are derived from indicative quotations rather than transaction prices.
The October 9 U.S. close showed the S&P 500 up 0.6% to 7,811.54, the Dow up 0.8% to 51,654.95, the Nasdaq Composite up 0.6% to 27,366.17, and the Russell 2000 up 0.5% to 2,806.98. Their full-week changes were +1.2%, +0.9%, +0.6%, and -0.9%, respectively. CapitalBench's official ETF entry prices are supplied separately.
EIA's October 6 energy outlook forecast fourth-quarter Brent crude at $105 per barrel, $14 above its prior forecast, while estimating September Middle East production shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day versus 5.8 million in August. Its forecast inputs were completed October 1 and did not specifically incorporate later events. EIA's October 7 weekly report placed national distillate stocks at 105.1 million barrels for October 2, versus 121.6 million a year earlier; East Coast stocks were 21.7 million versus 30.2 million. Weekly estimates can be revised and displayed totals are rounded.
## Scheduled releases
Inside the weekly horizon, September CPI is scheduled for October 14 at 08:30 ET, PPI for October 15 at 08:30 ET, and import/export prices for October 16 at 08:30 ET. The holiday-delayed EIA petroleum report is scheduled for October 15 at 12:00 ET.
The monthly horizon additionally includes the October 27-28 FOMC meeting; advance third-quarter GDP and September income/PCE on October 29 at 08:30 ET; the Employment Cost Index on October 30; manufacturing activity on November 2; job openings on November 3; international trade and services activity on November 4; preliminary productivity on November 5; and October employment on November 6. September wholesale sales and inventories are scheduled for November 9 at 10:00 ET, before the monthly exit close. All scheduled outcomes are unknown at the cutoff.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-10-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-10-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-10-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-10-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-10-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-10-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-10-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Edge is thin. Financials is the only pullback with high quality, a steepening curve, in-window earnings and low beta, so it earns a marginal overreaction tag at 55%. Oil has a genuine supply catalyst from EIA but 49% vol and recent weakness keep it near coin-flip; agriculture is a low-correlation inflation hedge with shallow drawdown. Rate-sensitive bonds, regional banks, small value, solar, metals and South Africa are labeled fundamental deterioration because their declines track the hawkish Fed, rising yields and strong dollar rather than noise. Extended tech winners and ETH lack independent support.
Hawkish Fed (hiked to 3.75-4.00%, another hike likely by year end), 10y at 5.24% and rising, ISM prices at highest since 2022, weak payrolls (29k) and oil shock from Middle East shut-ins. SPY near its 52-week high with narrow leadership (RSP lagging SPY by 2.7% over 21 sessions, only 38% of assets positive). Rate-sensitive and small/regional names have sold off on fundamentals (rates), not noise, so most 'pullbacks' are rate-driven and continuation of pressure is plausible through the Oct 27-28 FOMC. Energy-linked and quality large-cap value look better supported; speculative crypto/AI winners offer no independent edge.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sept CPI (Oct 14) and Oct 27-28 FOMC could push yields further above 5.24% at 10y, hurting financials, small caps and all duration",
"Oil could reverse sharply if Middle East shut-ins recover faster than EIA's 4.8 mb/d estimate, with 49% vol",
"Narrow mega-cap leadership may persist, leaving equal-weight, value and cyclical candidates lagging SPY",
"Weak payrolls (29k) plus downward revisions raise recession-scare risk that would hit beta and credit-sensitive names"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.42% after prior active +0.59%, highest quality score 0.738",
"Steeper curve: 2y 4.80% vs 30y 5.60%, supportive of net interest margins",
"Low vol 12.09% and beta 0.62, Q3 bank earnings fall inside window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EIA raised Q4 Brent forecast $14 to $105 with 4.8 mb/d Middle East shut-ins",
"Distillate stocks 105.1M vs 121.6M a year earlier; recent active -9.42% after prior +15.07%",
"Horizon vol 49% and negative SPY beta -1.34 provide hedge value"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.37% with shallow drawdown -4.61% and vol 13.15%",
"ISM prices index 74.0 and PCE 3.4% y/y keep inflation hedges relevant",
"Near-zero SPY correlation 0.07 limits downside versus benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY +2.99% over 21 sessions, -0.07% from 52w high",
"Benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +23.74% and recent +8.34%, but volume z -1.20 shows fading participation",
"Rising 10y to 5.24% pressures long-duration growth"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"At 52w high with prior active +43.34%, recent +13.83%, volume z 0.67",
"No briefing catalyst supports further extension; mean-reversion risk after extreme run"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.30%; Russell 2000 -0.9% on week while S&P +1.2%",
"Fed hiking and 2y at 4.80% weigh on small-cap financing; payrolls only 29k"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +29.75% but recent 5s -1.74%, volume z -0.60, SMH -4.32% last week",
"Beta 1.87 and dollar strength (UUP +3.53% 21s) are headwinds"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.96%, -2.50% last week while XLF rose 2.32%, volume z 0.63 on selling",
"Rising rates and weak payrolls raise CRE/credit concerns; drawdown -11.09%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -10.27% on top of prior -10.68%, -19.83% from high",
"Gold -21% prior active and silver -28.6%; volume z -0.82 no capitulation signal"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.00, prior active -13.75%; yields rose across curve Oct 8 to Oct 9",
"Fed minutes signal another hike likely by year end"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.27 with prior active -14.37% and 10y at 5.24%",
"Low vol 4.56% caps upside versus equity benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.25% after prior -13.38%, -20.16% from 52w high",
"Strong dollar (UUP +3.53% 21s) and weak precious metals weigh on EM resource exposure"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -26.65%, recent -9.99%, -40.82% from high, drawdown -22.94%",
"Rising rates (5y 5.02%) hurt project financing; quality score 0.313"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +178% with horizon vol 398%; prior active -2.96% so no established trend",
"Bitcoin ETF -2.47% last week and -32% from high; volume z -0.33"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -30,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 30,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Hawkish Fed (hiked to 3.75-4.00%, another hike likely by year end), 10y at 5.24% and rising, ISM prices at highest since 2022, weak payrolls (29k) and oil shock from Middle East shut-ins. SPY near its 52-week high with narrow leadership (RSP lagging SPY by 2.7% over 21 sessions, only 38% of assets positive). Rate-sensitive and small/regional names have sold off on fundamentals (rates), not noise, so most 'pullbacks' are rate-driven and continuation of pressure is plausible through the Oct 27-28 FOMC. Energy-linked and quality large-cap value look better supported; speculative crypto/AI winners offer no independent edge.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"OIL",
"AGRICULTURE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Edge is thin. Financials is the only pullback with high quality, a steepening curve, in-window earnings and low beta, so it earns a marginal overreaction tag at 55%. Oil has a genuine supply catalyst from EIA but 49% vol and recent weakness keep it near coin-flip; agriculture is a low-correlation inflation hedge with shallow drawdown. Rate-sensitive bonds, regional banks, small value, solar, metals and South Africa are labeled fundamental deterioration because their declines track the hawkish Fed, rising yields and strong dollar rather than noise. Extended tech winners and ETH lack independent support.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Hawkish Fed (hiked to 3.75-4.00%, another hike likely by year end), 10y at 5.24% and rising, ISM prices at highest since 2022, weak payrolls (29k) and oil shock from Middle East shut-ins. SPY near its 52-week high with narrow leadership (RSP lagging SPY by 2.7% over 21 sessions, only 38% of assets positive). Rate-sensitive and small/regional names have sold off on fundamentals (rates), not noise, so most 'pullbacks' are rate-driven and continuation of pressure is plausible through the Oct 27-28 FOMC. Energy-linked and quality large-cap value look better supported; speculative crypto/AI winners offer no independent edge.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-10-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27857,
"latency_seconds": 48.39875590597512,
"output_tokens": 4078,
"total_tokens": 31935
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
Only Financials passes the eligibility test: it is a quality pullback in a steepening, hawkish-rate regime. The other candidates lack edge. That leaves an expected portfolio of roughly 35% Financials and the rest in SPY.
Hawkish Fed (hike to 3.75-4.00%, more likely), 10y at 5.24%, ISM prices 74, oil supply shocks and a weak payroll print. Breadth is narrow over 21 sessions (RSP -2.68% vs SPY) but improved over the last week. Rates pressure duration and rate-sensitive assets. The ETHA +178% print looks anomalous and gives no edge.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hot CPI on October 14 or a hawkish October 28 FOMC could hit cyclicals",
"Credit stress showing in HYG/KRE weakness could hurt Financials",
"Oil supply shock driving inflation and growth fears",
"Weak labor data turning into recession fears"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.738, highest on the slate",
"-6.42% 21d active vs +0.59% prior; +2.32% over 5 days",
"Steepening curve with Fed hiking supports net interest margins"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.728",
"Hawkish Fed and 5.24% 10y weigh on small caps"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+43% prior active, at 52w high",
"Elevated volume z 0.67"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+23.7% prior active",
"Volume z -1.2"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Beta 0.06",
"Quality score 0.719"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EIA Q4 Brent forecast raised to $105",
"Distillate stocks well below last year",
"Middle East shut-ins easing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +29.75%",
"SMH -4.3% over 5 days"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-8.96% 21d active, -2.5% over 5 days",
"Volume z 0.63"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-10.27% active",
"Strong dollar (UUP +3.5%)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-11.25% active",
"Strong dollar and weak gold"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.0",
"Yields rising"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.27",
"Fed signals further hikes"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-40.8% from 52w high",
"Rates at 5%+"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+178% 5-day move likely a data anomaly",
"Volatility 398%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -30,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Hawkish Fed (hike to 3.75-4.00%, more likely), 10y at 5.24%, ISM prices 74, oil supply shocks and a weak payroll print. Breadth is narrow over 21 sessions (RSP -2.68% vs SPY) but improved over the last week. Rates pressure duration and rate-sensitive assets. The ETHA +178% print looks anomalous and gives no edge.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"SP500",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Financials passes the eligibility test: it is a quality pullback in a steepening, hawkish-rate regime. The other candidates lack edge. That leaves an expected portfolio of roughly 35% Financials and the rest in SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Hawkish Fed (hike to 3.75-4.00%, more likely), 10y at 5.24%, ISM prices 74, oil supply shocks and a weak payroll print. Breadth is narrow over 21 sessions (RSP -2.68% vs SPY) but improved over the last week. Rates pressure duration and rate-sensitive assets. The ETHA +178% print looks anomalous and gives no edge.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-10-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27857,
"latency_seconds": 28.403904513048474,
"output_tokens": 3067,
"total_tokens": 30924
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent pullbacks but have strong fundamental or quality support, such as OIL (supported by EIA forecasts) and high-quality sectors like FINANCIALS and SMALL_VALUE.
The market is showing mixed signals with solid activity but elevated inflation, leading to expectations of further rate hikes. This environment favors defensive and quality assets while punishing highly volatile or rate-sensitive sectors.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further interest rate hikes could negatively impact equity valuations.",
"Energy prices may not reach EIA forecasts if global demand weakens."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"EIA forecast fourth-quarter Brent crude at $105 per barrel, $14 above its prior forecast.",
"USO had a recent active return of -9.42% but a prior active return of 15.07%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLF has a high quality score of 0.738.",
"Recent active return was -6.42% despite a positive prior active return."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IWN has a quality score of 0.728.",
"Recent active return was -6.30%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"DBA has a quality score of 0.719.",
"Recent active return was -6.37%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the benchmark."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"CIBR had a recent active return of 13.83% and prior active return of 43.34%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IGV had a recent active return of 8.34% and prior active return of 23.74%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"MUB has a volume z-score of 5.27.",
"Low volatility of 4.56%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"MBB has a volume z-score of 5.00.",
"Low volatility of 5.63%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"KRE had a recent active return of -8.96% and prior active return of -4.13%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XME had a recent active return of -10.27% and prior active return of -10.68%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EZA had a recent active return of -11.25% and prior active return of -13.38%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EWT had a recent active return of 1.96% and prior active return of 29.75%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"TAN had a recent active return of -9.99% and prior active return of -26.65%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"ETHA has extreme volatility of 397.81%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -30,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"OIL": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is showing mixed signals with solid activity but elevated inflation, leading to expectations of further rate hikes. This environment favors defensive and quality assets while punishing highly volatile or rate-sensitive sectors.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent pullbacks but have strong fundamental or quality support, such as OIL (supported by EIA forecasts) and high-quality sectors like FINANCIALS and SMALL_VALUE.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is showing mixed signals with solid activity but elevated inflation, leading to expectations of further rate hikes. This environment favors defensive and quality assets while punishing highly volatile or rate-sensitive sectors.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-10-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19175,
"latency_seconds": 21.268332097970415,
"output_tokens": 3164,
"total_tokens": 22339
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Oil is the only sufficiently supported overreaction above the eligibility threshold. Its pullback conflicts with independently supplied evidence of constrained supply and a higher near-term oil forecast. Energy equities rank highly on the same catalyst but are not mislabeled as oversold. Financials offer a plausible, lower-confidence reversal below the threshold. Remaining exposure appropriately defaults to SPY rather than forcing additional qualifying labels.
Cross-sectional outcomes are widely dispersed, although the supplied aggregate dispersion statistic is missing and Ethereum is an extreme outlier. Weak payrolls coexist with solid spending, strong services orders, elevated prices and a tightening Fed. This favors selective rather than broad reversal exposure. Oil has independent supply evidence supporting a rebound; technology leadership lacks comparable briefing support. The October inflation releases, FOMC meeting and November employment report can materially change relative returns before exit.
{
"confidence": 0.61,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Middle East production restoration could accelerate; shut-ins already declined from August to September, undermining the oil reversal.",
"CPI, PCE or the October FOMC meeting could intensify tightening expectations and depress both equities and commodity demand.",
"Weak payrolls and downward revisions could precede a sharper demand slowdown despite currently resilient spending and services orders.",
"Oil futures-curve effects can make USO returns differ materially from the briefing's Brent forecast.",
"Extreme Ethereum statistics and the missing aggregate dispersion measure reduce confidence in cross-sectional tail calibration."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"The 21-session active return was -9.42% after prior active strength of 15.07%, making this a pullback rather than persistent relative weakness.",
"EIA raised its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $14 to $105; September production shut-ins remained 4.8 million barrels per day.",
"Distillate inventories were below year-earlier levels, but 49.14% volatility and improving shut-ins warrant a wide range."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -17,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 24,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"p_top3_pct": 43,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The slate omits energy equities despite the specific upward EIA oil forecast revision and low distillate inventories.",
"Energy gained 3.60% over five sessions, with 20.60% volatility versus oil's 49.14%.",
"Only 0.69% below its 52-week high, it is a supply-catalyst exposure rather than a clear oversold reversal."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence is 0.738, with a -6.42% recent active pullback following positive 0.59% prior active performance.",
"Services new orders of 59.8 and real spending growth of 0.6% support activity despite weak payrolls.",
"Higher policy rates and unemployment risks prevent a high-confidence rebound call."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence is 0.719, drawdown is 4.61%, and SPY correlation is only 0.066.",
"Elevated PCE and services prices offer general inflation context, but the briefing supplies no crop-specific catalyst.",
"Prior active performance of -2.78% weakens the claim that the latest -6.37% active return is an isolated dislocation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 2.99% over 21 sessions, while only 37.68% of assets had positive returns.",
"Its 10.91% volatility and 3.36% drawdown are substantially lower than those of the speculative leaders.",
"Relative return to itself is identically zero."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence of 0.728 and volatility of 10.90% make the -6.30% active pullback worth testing.",
"Prior active return was already negative at -1.57%.",
"Payroll growth of 29,000 and the Fed's tightening stance undermine a financing-sensitive domestic rebound."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior and recent active returns were 43.34% and 13.83%, with positive volume z-score of 0.667.",
"The fund is at its 52-week high with 32.90% volatility.",
"No cybersecurity-specific fundamental or scheduled catalyst is supplied to independently validate further outperformance."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 5.001 is exceptional, but it does not identify buying pressure or forced selling.",
"Weak payrolls offer a potential duration-support scenario.",
"Recent Fed tightening, elevated inflation and a 5.24% ten-year yield make the relative decline economically explicable."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score is 5.265, but no municipal-specific flow or valuation explanation is supplied.",
"Prior active return was -14.37%, and recent active return remained negative at -4.59%.",
"Low 4.56% volatility provides defense, not independent evidence of a one-month reversal."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active strength of 8.34% follows 23.74% prior active performance.",
"Volume z-score is -1.204 despite the advance, and volatility is 32.52%.",
"The briefing provides no software-specific support to offset the tighter discount-rate backdrop."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 29.75%, but the latest five-session return was -1.74%.",
"Recent active return remains positive at 1.96%, so this is not a deep relative reversal setup.",
"Beta of 1.872 and volatility of 31.82% increase risk without a supplied local catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The -8.96% recent active decline follows -4.13% prior active performance.",
"The positive yield curve offers a potential offset, but higher policy rates and weak payrolls raise funding and credit concerns.",
"An 11.09% drawdown and elevated volume do not establish temporary forced selling; no bank-specific repair catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 10.27% follows a prior active loss of 10.68%, rather than an established strong trend.",
"Volatility is 36.32%, drawdown is 15.75%, and volume z-score is negative.",
"Strong wholesale sales are nominal; they do not establish improving real metals demand or a mining-specific reversal catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns were -11.25% and -13.38%, respectively.",
"The fund is 20.16% below its 52-week high, but volume z-score of -0.197 offers no clear capitulation signal.",
"The dollar gained 3.53% over 21 sessions, while no country-specific recovery catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active loss of 26.65% and recent active loss of 9.99% indicate persistent weakness.",
"The 22.94% drawdown and 40.82% distance below the high are accompanied by weak quality evidence of 0.313.",
"Higher financing rates are an economic headwind, and no solar-specific policy or demand repair is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The supplied five-session gain of 178.42% and volatility of 397.81% are extreme relative to the rest of the universe.",
"Volume z-score is -0.327, and no network, regulatory or flow catalyst is supplied.",
"These unusual statistics warrant substantial estimation uncertainty rather than mechanical extrapolation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -55,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 65,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"OIL": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"OIL"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Cross-sectional outcomes are widely dispersed, although the supplied aggregate dispersion statistic is missing and Ethereum is an extreme outlier. Weak payrolls coexist with solid spending, strong services orders, elevated prices and a tightening Fed. This favors selective rather than broad reversal exposure. Oil has independent supply evidence supporting a rebound; technology leadership lacks comparable briefing support. The October inflation releases, FOMC meeting and November employment report can materially change relative returns before exit.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"FINANCIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 61% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Oil is the only sufficiently supported overreaction above the eligibility threshold. Its pullback conflicts with independently supplied evidence of constrained supply and a higher near-term oil forecast. Energy equities rank highly on the same catalyst but are not mislabeled as oversold. Financials offer a plausible, lower-confidence reversal below the threshold. Remaining exposure appropriately defaults to SPY rather than forcing additional qualifying labels.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Cross-sectional outcomes are widely dispersed, although the supplied aggregate dispersion statistic is missing and Ethereum is an extreme outlier. Weak payrolls coexist with solid spending, strong services orders, elevated prices and a tightening Fed. This favors selective rather than broad reversal exposure. Oil has independent supply evidence supporting a rebound; technology leadership lacks comparable briefing support. The October inflation releases, FOMC meeting and November employment report can materially change relative returns before exit.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-10-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15872,
"latency_seconds": 50.219037825998385,
"output_tokens": 3606,
"reasoning_tokens": 46,
"total_tokens": 19478
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Top ranks favor supported continuation in cybersecurity and software with reversal potential in financials based on quality scores and active returns.
Mixed equity signals with recent strength in select growth and cybersecurity offset by broad quality pullbacks, rate sensitivity, and slowing macro data including weak payrolls and elevated PCE.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further payroll revisions and CPI surprises",
"Fed policy tightening impact on rates",
"Elevated energy costs pressuring households"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"13.83% recent active return",
"43.34% prior active",
"0.00% 52w-high distance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 68,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"8.34% recent active return",
"23.74% prior active",
"low volume z"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-6.42% recent active",
"0.738 quality score",
"low vol 12.09%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 42,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"1.16% recent return",
"benchmark status"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-6.30% recent active",
"0.728 quality score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-6.37% recent active",
"0.719 quality score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-9.42% recent active",
"0.699 quality score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-8.96% recent active",
"0.651 quality score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"1.96% recent active",
"0.531 quality score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.27",
"low vol 4.56%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.00",
"low vol 5.63%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-10.27% recent active",
"0.504 quality score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-11.25% recent active",
"0.457 quality score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-9.99% recent active",
"0.313 quality score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"178.42% recent return",
"0.343 quality score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -25,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 35,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed equity signals with recent strength in select growth and cybersecurity offset by broad quality pullbacks, rate sensitivity, and slowing macro data including weak payrolls and elevated PCE.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOFTWARE",
"FINANCIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks favor supported continuation in cybersecurity and software with reversal potential in financials based on quality scores and active returns.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed equity signals with recent strength in select growth and cybersecurity offset by broad quality pullbacks, rate sensitivity, and slowing macro data including weak payrolls and elevated PCE.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-10-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16116,
"latency_seconds": 19.975419385009445,
"output_tokens": 2058,
"reasoning_tokens": 780,
"total_tokens": 18954
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Top ranks favor shock-reversal names with deep recent active losses, decent quality scores, and partial fundamental offsets (EIA oil upgrade, bank quality) that clear the overreaction-plus-55% bar; remaining slate either continues stretched momentum, shows fundamental damage, or offers only low-vol defensive drag versus SPY in a hiking/sticky-inflation regime, so prefer_spy diagnostic is true while still surfacing the three eligible reversals.
Elevated cross-asset dispersion with soft payrolls, sticky PCE/ISM prices, unanimous Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% and likely further tightening, rising Treasury yields, and mixed equity breadth; shock-laggards show deep active drawdowns while select growth/crypto momentum remains extreme, favoring selective reversal over pure continuation into the one-month window.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further Fed tightening or hotter CPI/PPI could extend rate pressure on banks and cyclicals",
"Oil supply recovery or demand miss could invalidate the EIA-supported reversal",
"High dispersion and crypto/tech extremes raise gap-risk and correlation breakdown into the Nov 9 exit",
"Soft payrolls and trade deficit widening may signal broader growth slowdown hurting metals and EM"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"EIA raised Q4 Brent forecast to $105 (+$14) with Middle East shut-ins still elevated",
"prior active +15.07% versus recent active -9.42% and quality score 0.699",
"negative SPY corr/beta supports independent move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -8.96% after milder prior weakness with quality 0.651",
"horizon vol only 15.63% and volume z +0.63",
"yield curve still inverted but solid activity noted in Fed minutes"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -10.27% with prior active -10.68% and quality 0.504",
"deep 52w-high distance -19.83% and high beta 1.78",
"volume z negative but pullback rank extreme"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -11.25% and prior -13.38% with max quality pullback rank 1.000",
"52w-high distance -20.16%",
"horizon vol 27.33%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.738 highest among slate pullbacks",
"recent active -6.42% after flat prior",
"lower vol 12.09%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.728 with strong recent pullback rank",
"recent active -6.30%",
"vol 10.90% near SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality 0.719 and shallow drawdown",
"near-zero SPY corr/beta",
"recent active -6.37%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active -26.65% and 52w distance -40.82%",
"quality only 0.313",
"high vol 34.42%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +13.83% and prior +43.34%",
"at 52w high",
"volume z +0.67"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +8.34% prior +23.74%",
"quality 0.516",
"vol 32.52%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +29.75% recent still +1.96%",
"high beta 1.87",
"quality 0.531"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.00 extreme",
"recent active -4.84% with rising yields",
"low vol 5.63%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.27",
"recent active -4.59%",
"quality 0.422"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent return +178% active +198% extreme",
"vol 397% and quality 0.343",
"prior active negative"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -40,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 35,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark with 1.16% 5s return and low 3.36% drawdown",
"near 52w high",
"positive asset share 5s 71%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"METALS_MINING": 30,
"OIL": 35,
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"METALS_MINING"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Elevated cross-asset dispersion with soft payrolls, sticky PCE/ISM prices, unanimous Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% and likely further tightening, rising Treasury yields, and mixed equity breadth; shock-laggards show deep active drawdowns while select growth/crypto momentum remains extreme, favoring selective reversal over pure continuation into the one-month window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"METALS_MINING"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks favor shock-reversal names with deep recent active losses, decent quality scores, and partial fundamental offsets (EIA oil upgrade, bank quality) that clear the overreaction-plus-55% bar; remaining slate either continues stretched momentum, shows fundamental damage, or offers only low-vol defensive drag versus SPY in a hiking/sticky-inflation regime, so prefer_spy diagnostic is true while still surfacing the three eligible reversals.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Elevated cross-asset dispersion with soft payrolls, sticky PCE/ISM prices, unanimous Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% and likely further tightening, rising Treasury yields, and mixed equity breadth; shock-laggards show deep active drawdowns while select growth/crypto momentum remains extreme, favoring selective reversal over pure continuation into the one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-10-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17106,
"latency_seconds": 46.99156645097537,
"output_tokens": 3032,
"reasoning_tokens": 318,
"total_tokens": 20456
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Near-high SPY plus a still-hawkish Fed and elevated services prices reduce the one-month edge of high-beta continuation names. The only reasonably supported mean-reversion cases are quality pullbacks in FINANCIALS and SMALL_VALUE; shock names remain too volatile or, for SOLAR, show prior-trend deterioration. Duration products face the October 27-28 FOMC and CPI/PPI prints.
SPY is near a 52-week high after a modest 5-session gain while 21-session breadth is weak (37.7% positive). Fed minutes show a September hike to 3.75%-4.00% and most participants expecting another increase by year-end amid 3.4% PCE and an ISM services prices index of 74.0. That mix favors the benchmark over stretched high-beta winners and over high-vol shock names unless a pullback is clearly transitory.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September CPI/PPI (Oct 14-15) and the Oct 27-28 FOMC can reprice rates and compress any financials/small-value bounce.",
"ISM services prices at 74.0 and PCE at 3.4% keep real-rate pressure on duration, EM, and high-beta growth.",
"Oil and mining reversals can fail if EIA supply/demand revisions reverse or if the dollar's 21-session +3.53% trend persists.",
"ETHA's extreme 5-session move implies path-dependent mean reversion that can dominate a one-month window."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return 1.16% with distance to 52-week high of -0.07%.",
"63-session vol 10.91% and max drawdown -3.36%, lower than most slate equities.",
"Fed minutes record a September hike and likely further tightening into year-end."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.738 with recent pullback rank 0.821 and prior active rank 0.776.",
"21-session active return -6.42% versus 5-session rebound of 2.32%.",
"Horizon vol 12.09% is close to SPY with beta 0.62."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.728 with recent pullback rank 0.791.",
"21-session active return -6.30% and 52-week distance -6.90%.",
"Horizon vol 10.90% matches SPY with beta 0.92."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active return -8.96% with quality score 0.651 and pullback rank 0.940.",
"5-session return -2.50% while SPY rose 1.16%.",
"Yield curve still inverted-to-steepening at 2y 4.80% vs 10y 5.24% after a September hike."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.719 with SPY corr 0.07 and beta 0.06.",
"21-session active return -6.37% with shallow 63s drawdown -4.61%.",
"Low co-movement with equities but no in-window crop catalyst supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EIA raised Q4 Brent forecast to $105, $14 above the prior forecast.",
"21-session active return -9.42% despite prior 105s active +15.07%.",
"Horizon vol 49.14% and negative SPY beta -1.34."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active return +29.75% with quality score 0.531.",
"21-session active still +1.96% but 5-session -1.74%.",
"Beta 1.87 and 63s vol 31.82% versus SPY 10.91%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active +23.74% and 21-session active +8.34%.",
"Volume z -1.20 and 52-week distance -3.75%.",
"Quality score 0.516 with software vol 32.52%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active +43.34% and 21-session active +13.83%.",
"At 52-week high (distance 0.00%) with recent pullback rank 0.015.",
"Horizon vol 32.90% and 5-session +5.06%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active -10.27% with recent pullback rank 0.985.",
"Horizon vol 36.32%, beta 1.78, 52-week distance -19.83%.",
"Quality score 0.504 with volume z -0.82."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active -11.25% and deepest recent pullback rank 1.000.",
"Beta 1.61, vol 27.33%, 52-week distance -20.16%.",
"Quality score 0.457 with prior active rank only 0.254."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.00 with 21-session active -4.84%.",
"10-year Treasury 5.24% after a September hike and minutes signaling another increase.",
"Horizon vol 5.63% but duration is a headwind versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.27 with 21-session active -4.59%.",
"Quality score 0.422 and prior active rank 0.149.",
"Policy rates at 3.75%-4.00% with another hike likely by year-end."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active -26.65% and 21-session active -9.99%.",
"Quality score 0.313, 52-week distance -40.82%, max drawdown -22.94%.",
"Beta 1.93 and vol 34.42% into a hawkish rate path."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session return 178.42% and 21-session active 198.68% with vol 397.81%.",
"Quality score 0.343, recent pullback rank 0.000, beta 3.12.",
"No independent in-window fundamental support supplied beyond the price spike."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -40,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 25,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high after a modest 5-session gain while 21-session breadth is weak (37.7% positive). Fed minutes show a September hike to 3.75%-4.00% and most participants expecting another increase by year-end amid 3.4% PCE and an ISM services prices index of 74.0. That mix favors the benchmark over stretched high-beta winners and over high-vol shock names unless a pullback is clearly transitory.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SP500",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Near-high SPY plus a still-hawkish Fed and elevated services prices reduce the one-month edge of high-beta continuation names. The only reasonably supported mean-reversion cases are quality pullbacks in FINANCIALS and SMALL_VALUE; shock names remain too volatile or, for SOLAR, show prior-trend deterioration. Duration products face the October 27-28 FOMC and CPI/PPI prints.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high after a modest 5-session gain while 21-session breadth is weak (37.7% positive). Fed minutes show a September hike to 3.75%-4.00% and most participants expecting another increase by year-end amid 3.4% PCE and an ISM services prices index of 74.0. That mix favors the benchmark over stretched high-beta winners and over high-vol shock names unless a pullback is clearly transitory.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-10-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17248,
"latency_seconds": 47.59382882603677,
"output_tokens": 2955,
"reasoning_tokens": 632,
"total_tokens": 20835
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Crude Oil (USO)35%Financials Sector (XLF)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Crude Oil (USO)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.61 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Crude Oil (USO)35%Regional Banks (KRE)35%Metals and Mining (XME)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-09 | 206.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-09 | 89.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-09 | 28.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-09 | 28.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-09 | 123.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-09 | 153.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-09 | 46.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-09 | 43.54 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-09 | 66.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-09 | 19.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-09 | 59.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-09 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-09 | 52.55 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-09 | 110.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-09 | 112.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-09 | 83.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-09 | 40.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-09 | 148.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-09 | 110.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-09 | 70.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-09 | 91.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-09 | 59.76 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-09 | 65.08 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-09 | 213.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-09 | 55.99 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-09 | 103.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-09 | 86.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-09 | 54.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-09 | 78.87 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-09 | 170.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-09 | 77.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-09 | 46.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-09 | 169.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-09 | 89.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-09 | 46.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-09 | 102.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-09 | 97.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-09 | 57.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-09 | 77.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-09 | 49.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-09 | 106.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-09 | 71.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-09 | 101.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-09 | 751.27 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-09 | 41.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-09 | 69.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-09 | 778.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-09 | 603.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-09 | 91.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-09 | 54.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-09 | 112.67 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-09 | 43.75 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-09 | 63.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-09 | 177.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-09 | 114.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-09 | 198.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-09 | 381.94 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-09 | 104.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-09 | 46.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-09 | 94.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-09 | 33.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-09 | 29.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-09 | 127.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-09 | 253.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-09 | 72.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-09 | 73.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-09 | 320.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-09 | 278.94 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-09 | 210.87 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-09 | 41.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | c7d350de5e47...6ff778f6 |
| manifest.yaml | 502d9939f34a...ef9ed0b9 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | f95dccd5f507...db47e242 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | ceb6e5e3f8ef...95c15acb |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 18ba2e3fe721...8c14dbe9 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | ebf380d16f12...544f9124 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | ae97aaa24ae4...6a14c8e4 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | c5c80314d260...ffaa3a5c |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |