Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Using the latest available interim close, Gemini 3.1 Pro in CB-2026-10-10-1M is ahead of the S&P 500 by +7.62 percentage points, while Grok 4.5 in CB-2026-10-27-1M is at -6.41 percentage points.
Live alpha is interim model return minus interim S&P 500 return. It is provisional until the round reaches its official score date.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Claude Fable 5.1 is lowest at 4.7.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 77.6 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
6 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-11-30 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-20261027-1M
31,050 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Taiwan Equities (EWT)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-27-1M
- Decision date: 2026-10-28
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-27T22:34:08Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-28T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-10-28
- Exit date: 2026-11-30
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench factual briefing — October 27, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Inflation and policy
- BLS, October 14 release: September CPI increased 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually; core CPI increased 0.3% and 2.6%. Food was unchanged monthly while energy rose 5.2%.
- BLS, October 15 release: September final-demand PPI increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, increases were 0.5% and 5.0%. These are different price measures, not interchangeable inflation rates.
- The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimously. Its October 27–28 meeting is in progress at this briefing's cutoff; no decision from that meeting is included.
## Households, activity, and employment
- The Conference Board's October 27 release reported October consumer confidence at 91.7, up 7.5 points from September's revised 84.2. The Present Situation Index rose to 120.4, and Expectations to 72.6. Survey responses were collected October 1–21; these are preliminary survey readings, not realized spending. The publisher said confidence remained on its longer-term declining trend despite the monthly rise.
- Census Bureau, October 15: September retail and food-service sales increased 0.8% monthly, with reported uncertainty ±0.4 percentage points, and 6.3% annually, ±0.5 points. Sales are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.
- BLS, October 2: September payroll employment increased 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. These survey estimates can be revised.
- National Association of Realtors, October 20: September pending home sales declined 7.3% monthly and 11.3% annually, with declines in every region. Pending contracts are not completed home sales, and financing or closing delays can affect timing.
## Market observations
- AP, October 27 closes: S&P 500 7,722.60 (+0.6%); Dow 52,377.57 (up less than 0.1%); Nasdaq Composite 26,477.81 (+1.2%); Russell 2000 2,818.87 (+1.2%).
- Most S&P 500 constituents fell; AP reported relatively steady Treasury yields. Index levels are not ETF scoring prices.
## Energy and international policy
- EIA's October 21 report, for the week ending October 16, reported refinery inputs of 16.6 million barrels daily at 93.4% utilization. Crude imports averaged 5.8 million barrels daily, down 291,000 from the prior week, while the four-week average was 2.8% above a year earlier. These are weekly estimates, not an October 27 oil-price quote.
- ECB, September 10 decision effective September 16: deposit, refinancing, and marginal lending rates increased to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%. Staff forecasts for 2026 were 0.9% growth and 3.0% inflation. Forecasts are not outcomes; the ECB described substantial uncertainty, upside inflation risks, and downside growth risks.
## Scheduled information and scoring-window boundaries
- The October 27–28 FOMC meeting concludes on the prospective entry day, before its closing price. Its outcome is unknown at this research cutoff, and is not a post-entry event in the return window.
- BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; BLS schedules third-quarter Employment Cost Index for October 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BLS September job openings are scheduled November 3 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, and BEA September international trade November 4 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The federal general election is November 3. These dates precede the weekly November 4 exit close and fall within the monthly window; no outcome is assumed.
- Additional monthly-window releases include BLS October employment November 6, October CPI November 10, and October PPI November 13, all at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BEA schedules second-estimate third-quarter GDP and October personal income/outlays for November 25 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Release calendars can change.
Complete mechanical history stops at the October 27 close. Entry is the prospective October 28 close; exits are November 4 and November 30. No entry or holding-window outcome is known or included. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing does not rank options, recommend allocations, or map facts to expected returns.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-27-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-28'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-28T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-5f7392bbcea6
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-27T22:31:49.360348+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-4-argon
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-10-28'
exit_date: '2026-11-30'
created_at: '2026-10-27T22:31:49.360348+00:00'
notes: Fresh direct public-source research October 27 America/Toronto; complete mechanical context through October 27 close. Prospective October 28 close entry; one-month anniversary November 28 is a Saturday, so exit is next trading close November 30. Six-model frozen V3 roster; participant tools and search disabled.# CapitalBench factual briefing — October 27, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Inflation and policy
- BLS, October 14 release: September CPI increased 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually; core CPI increased 0.3% and 2.6%. Food was unchanged monthly while energy rose 5.2%.
- BLS, October 15 release: September final-demand PPI increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, increases were 0.5% and 5.0%. These are different price measures, not interchangeable inflation rates.
- The Federal Reserve's September 16 decision raised the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, unanimously. Its October 27–28 meeting is in progress at this briefing's cutoff; no decision from that meeting is included.
## Households, activity, and employment
- The Conference Board's October 27 release reported October consumer confidence at 91.7, up 7.5 points from September's revised 84.2. The Present Situation Index rose to 120.4, and Expectations to 72.6. Survey responses were collected October 1–21; these are preliminary survey readings, not realized spending. The publisher said confidence remained on its longer-term declining trend despite the monthly rise.
- Census Bureau, October 15: September retail and food-service sales increased 0.8% monthly, with reported uncertainty ±0.4 percentage points, and 6.3% annually, ±0.5 points. Sales are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation.
- BLS, October 2: September payroll employment increased 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. These survey estimates can be revised.
- National Association of Realtors, October 20: September pending home sales declined 7.3% monthly and 11.3% annually, with declines in every region. Pending contracts are not completed home sales, and financing or closing delays can affect timing.
## Market observations
- AP, October 27 closes: S&P 500 7,722.60 (+0.6%); Dow 52,377.57 (up less than 0.1%); Nasdaq Composite 26,477.81 (+1.2%); Russell 2000 2,818.87 (+1.2%).
- Most S&P 500 constituents fell; AP reported relatively steady Treasury yields. Index levels are not ETF scoring prices.
## Energy and international policy
- EIA's October 21 report, for the week ending October 16, reported refinery inputs of 16.6 million barrels daily at 93.4% utilization. Crude imports averaged 5.8 million barrels daily, down 291,000 from the prior week, while the four-week average was 2.8% above a year earlier. These are weekly estimates, not an October 27 oil-price quote.
- ECB, September 10 decision effective September 16: deposit, refinancing, and marginal lending rates increased to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%. Staff forecasts for 2026 were 0.9% growth and 3.0% inflation. Forecasts are not outcomes; the ECB described substantial uncertainty, upside inflation risks, and downside growth risks.
## Scheduled information and scoring-window boundaries
- The October 27–28 FOMC meeting concludes on the prospective entry day, before its closing price. Its outcome is unknown at this research cutoff, and is not a post-entry event in the return window.
- BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; BLS schedules third-quarter Employment Cost Index for October 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BLS September job openings are scheduled November 3 at 10:00 a.m. Eastern, and BEA September international trade November 4 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. The federal general election is November 3. These dates precede the weekly November 4 exit close and fall within the monthly window; no outcome is assumed.
- Additional monthly-window releases include BLS October employment November 6, October CPI November 10, and October PPI November 13, all at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BEA schedules second-estimate third-quarter GDP and October personal income/outlays for November 25 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. Release calendars can change.
Complete mechanical history stops at the October 27 close. Entry is the prospective October 28 close; exits are November 4 and November 30. No entry or holding-window outcome is known or included. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing does not rank options, recommend allocations, or map facts to expected returns.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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"files": {
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-4-argon
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-27-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
The strongest setups are quality pullbacks in the Asian semiconductor complex: Taiwan, semis, and Korea all had top-decile prior relative trends and now sit in deep relative drawdowns, with Nasdaq and SMH ticking up into the cutoff. These are marginal (55-58%) given FOMC, election, and CPI event risk. Extended winners (cyber, energy, oil, software) lack in-window catalysts; Brazil, silver, and communications show persistent rather than shock-driven weakness.
Macro backdrop is stagflationary: CPI 3.7% with energy up 5.2%, PPI 6.3%, Fed hiked in September and the Oct 27-28 FOMC decision lands on entry day. Payrolls weak at 29k, pending home sales down sharply, but retail sales and confidence rebounded. SPY is flat over 21 sessions while equal-weight outperformed by 3.2pp and TLT rallied 4.2%, signaling rotation away from mega-cap growth. Cross-sectional dispersion is high with semis, Korea, Taiwan and crypto in deep relative pullbacks after strong prior trends, while energy and defensives led. Window contains the Nov 3 election, Nov 6 payrolls, and Nov 10 CPI, so event risk is elevated.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC outcome on entry day or hot Nov 10 CPI extending the Fed hiking cycle and hitting high-beta tech and EM",
"Nov 3 election and tariff or geopolitical surprise disproportionately hurting Taiwan and Korea exposures",
"Semiconductor pullback reflecting AI capex deceleration rather than overreaction, with beta 2.4-2.9 amplifying losses"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active return +22.75% with recent -6.59% pullback; highest quality evidence score in universe at 0.766",
"Vol 28.7% and drawdown -11.9% are moderate relative to semis and Korea; 9% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +14.03% then -7.53% recent pullback; prior rank 0.94 and pullback rank 0.955",
"Nasdaq +1.2% on Oct 27 and SMH +2.13% over 5s suggests stabilization; drawdown -17.4% and beta 2.42 carry high dispersion"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -14.76% after prior +10.80%; deepest relative pullback in universe (rank 1.0) with 5s return already +2.25%",
"Vol 52.9% and -22.6% drawdown; 28% below 52w high, beta 2.95 makes outcome highly uncertain"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +15.41%, recent -3.12%; quality score 0.738",
"Pullback is shallow and mega-cap rotation toward equal-weight persists (RSP minus SPY +3.18% 21s)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +9.31% with CPI energy +5.2% and PPI 6.3% supporting inflation hedge demand",
"Pullback rank 0.000 means fully extended; negative SPY beta offers diversification but no in-window catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +15.94% and recent +5.49%; volume z -1.07 shows fading participation",
"Pullback rank 0.09, extended near 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.60 with +3.00% active and TLT +4.24% 21s showing duration bid despite hot CPI",
"Vol 5.3% limits upside; FOMC outcome on entry day unknown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -12.80% after prior +7.89%; 44% below 52w high",
"Vol 46.9%, no in-window catalyst in briefing; bitcoin also weak -3.73% active"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO +9.25% 21s with refinery utilization 93.4%; crude imports down",
"Vol 41.5% and pullback rank 0.015; one-month extension with roll drag"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY flat 21s at +0.53%, 1.2% below 52w high",
"Benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +43.42% and 5s +9.21% on volume z 1.32; at 52w high",
"Pullback rank 0.045; extreme extension with no in-window catalyst raises mean-reversion risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -7.36% following prior -11.51%; persistent downtrend not a shock",
"Volume z 0.465 on decline; prior active rank only 0.284"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.07% after prior -25.11%; 53% below 52w high, prior rank 0.015",
"Gold also down -1.51% 21s and dollar up 1.46%; Fed hiking cycle pressures precious metals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Return -20.12% over 5s with volume z 5.20; prior active -16.02% indicates entrenched downtrend",
"Vol 52.5%, drawdown -21.6%; briefing gives no catalyst explaining the shock"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"BRAZIL",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SOUTH_KOREA": 30,
"TAIWAN": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SOUTH_KOREA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: CPI 3.7% with energy up 5.2%, PPI 6.3%, Fed hiked in September and the Oct 27-28 FOMC decision lands on entry day. Payrolls weak at 29k, pending home sales down sharply, but retail sales and confidence rebounded. SPY is flat over 21 sessions while equal-weight outperformed by 3.2pp and TLT rallied 4.2%, signaling rotation away from mega-cap growth. Cross-sectional dispersion is high with semis, Korea, Taiwan and crypto in deep relative pullbacks after strong prior trends, while energy and defensives led. Window contains the Nov 3 election, Nov 6 payrolls, and Nov 10 CPI, so event risk is elevated.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SOUTH_KOREA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The strongest setups are quality pullbacks in the Asian semiconductor complex: Taiwan, semis, and Korea all had top-decile prior relative trends and now sit in deep relative drawdowns, with Nasdaq and SMH ticking up into the cutoff. These are marginal (55-58%) given FOMC, election, and CPI event risk. Extended winners (cyber, energy, oil, software) lack in-window catalysts; Brazil, silver, and communications show persistent rather than shock-driven weakness.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: CPI 3.7% with energy up 5.2%, PPI 6.3%, Fed hiked in September and the Oct 27-28 FOMC decision lands on entry day. Payrolls weak at 29k, pending home sales down sharply, but retail sales and confidence rebounded. SPY is flat over 21 sessions while equal-weight outperformed by 3.2pp and TLT rallied 4.2%, signaling rotation away from mega-cap growth. Cross-sectional dispersion is high with semis, Korea, Taiwan and crypto in deep relative pullbacks after strong prior trends, while energy and defensives led. Window contains the Nov 3 election, Nov 6 payrolls, and Nov 10 CPI, so event risk is elevated.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27544,
"latency_seconds": 42.7719737830339,
"output_tokens": 3800,
"total_tokens": 31344
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
Only Taiwan and semiconductors clear the bar as overreaction with at least 55% probability of beating SPY. Both are high-quality pullbacks inside strong prior trends. Technology is ranked third at 53%, so it is ineligible and its slot falls to SPY. Recent winners lack independent support, and broken losers such as Brazil and silver show persistent deterioration.
SPY is flat over 21 sessions while equal-weight outperformed, so leadership is narrowing and broadening. Inflation is hot, with September CPI at 3.7% and PPI at 6.3%. The Fed hiked in September and decides on the entry day. A dense macro calendar (election, CPI, payrolls) raises volatility. Dispersion across options is high, and the pullbacks in high-beta Asian tech have a solid prior trend behind them.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC outcome or a hot October CPI could hit high-beta tech",
"Election-driven volatility on November 3",
"Taiwan geopolitical or semiconductor-cycle shock",
"Further concentration selloff in mega-cap tech"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality score at 0.766",
"Prior active +22.75% vs recent -6.59%",
"Only -9.11% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +14.03%, recent -7.53%",
"Quality 0.732",
"5-day return +2.13% shows stabilization"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +15.41%, recent -3.12%",
"Quality 0.738"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -14.76% after prior +10.80%",
"Volatility 52.9% and beta 2.95"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +5.49% with no pullback",
"Volume z -1.07"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +43.42%",
"5-day +9.21% at 52w high, extended"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-44% from 52w high",
"Recent active -12.80%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-day -6.00% and prior active -11.51%",
"Persistent weakness"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.60",
"Hot inflation limits duration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Energy CPI +5.2% m/m",
"Recent active +9.31%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-day +9.25%",
"Volatility 41.5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-day -20.12% on volume z 5.20",
"Prior active -16.02% and quality 0.310"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-53% from 52w high",
"Prior active -25.11%",
"Fed hiking and dollar firm"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"BRAZIL",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SP500": 30,
"TAIWAN": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is flat over 21 sessions while equal-weight outperformed, so leadership is narrowing and broadening. Inflation is hot, with September CPI at 3.7% and PPI at 6.3%. The Fed hiked in September and decides on the entry day. A dense macro calendar (election, CPI, payrolls) raises volatility. Dispersion across options is high, and the pullbacks in high-beta Asian tech have a solid prior trend behind them.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TECHNOLOGY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Taiwan and semiconductors clear the bar as overreaction with at least 55% probability of beating SPY. Both are high-quality pullbacks inside strong prior trends. Technology is ranked third at 53%, so it is ineligible and its slot falls to SPY. Recent winners lack independent support, and broken losers such as Brazil and silver show persistent deterioration.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is flat over 21 sessions while equal-weight outperformed, so leadership is narrowing and broadening. Inflation is hot, with September CPI at 3.7% and PPI at 6.3%. The Fed hiked in September and decides on the entry day. A dense macro calendar (election, CPI, payrolls) raises volatility. Dispersion across options is high, and the pullbacks in high-beta Asian tech have a solid prior trend behind them.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}google-gemini-4-argon
The top three ranked candidates—TAIWAN (EWT), TECHNOLOGY (XLK), and SEMICONDUCTORS (SMH)—have the highest quality evidence scores in the slate (0.766, 0.738, and 0.732). Each exhibits a strong prior 105-session active uptrend (+14.03% to +22.75%) followed by a temporary 21-session relative pullback (-3.12% to -7.53%) on subdued volume, representing a high-probability mean-reversion setup over the one-month window.
Market breadth has improved over the 21-session window (RSP outperforming SPY by 3.18%), while high-quality technology and semiconductor leaders have experienced sharp short-term active pullbacks (-3.12% to -7.53%) despite strong prior medium-term trends (+14% to +23%). Meanwhile, September CPI (+0.6% m/m, energy +5.2%) and PPI (+1.3% m/m) combined with high refinery utilization (93.4%) support energy prices, though quality pullbacks in secular tech leaders offer the highest probability of 1-month mean reversion.
{
"confidence": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"High correlation among Taiwan, US Technology, and Semiconductors creates concentrated exposure to global technology and semiconductor supply chain sentiment.",
"Hotter-than-expected November 10 CPI or November 13 PPI releases following September's 0.6% CPI and 1.3% PPI monthly increases could push yields higher and compress high-beta growth multiples.",
"Macro and policy uncertainty surrounding the November 3 US general election, Q3 GDP releases, and the November 6 employment report could trigger broad equity de-risking."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score in the 68-asset universe at 0.766, combining a 0.985 prior active rank (+22.75% prior active return) with a 0.910 recent pullback rank.",
"Recent 21-session active return of -6.59% represents a sharp pullback within an intact medium-term uptrend with moderate volume (-0.32 z-score)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Second-highest quality score in the slate at 0.738, backed by +15.41% prior 105-session active return and a -3.12% recent 21-session active pullback.",
"Recent 5-session return of +2.18% indicates early stabilization following the monthly relative pullback, with controlled 63-session max drawdown of -9.73%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High quality score of 0.732 driven by strong prior 105-session active performance (+14.03%) and a deep recent 21-session active pullback (-7.53%).",
"Positive 5-session return (+2.13%) and muted volume (-0.21 z-score) suggest selling pressure is exhausting rather than accelerating."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent 21-session active return of +9.31% is supported by September CPI energy rising 5.2% monthly and high EIA refinery utilization at 93.4%.",
"Negative beta (-0.42) and correlation (-0.24) to SPY provide diversification against inflation and rate risks ahead of November CPI/PPI releases."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Consistent relative strength with +15.94% prior active return and +5.49% recent 21-session active return.",
"Contained 63-session max drawdown (-8.27%) compared to other high-beta tech subsectors, though low volume (-1.07 z-score) limits conviction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Severe -14.76% recent 21-session active return contrasts with a solid +10.80% prior active return and a 0.704 quality score.",
"Extreme 63-session annualized volatility (52.91%), -22.61% max drawdown, and 2.95 SPY beta introduce excessive tail risk over a 1-month horizon."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Top prior active return in the universe (+43.42%) followed by a +9.21% 5-session surge on elevated volume (1.32 z-score).",
"Trading just -0.32% below its 52-week high with 35.07% volatility leaves it vulnerable to short-term profit-taking and mean reversion."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark asset with 10.73% volatility, -3.06% max drawdown, and +0.53% 21-session return.",
"Serves as the neutral baseline across a macro window featuring the November 3 election and key inflation/employment releases."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong recent active return (+8.72%) backed by 93.4% refinery utilization and lower weekly crude imports (-291,000 bpd).",
"High 63-session volatility (41.52%) and weaker quality score (0.366) make direct crude exposure less attractive than energy equities."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Sharp -12.80% 21-session active pullback after a +7.89% prior active return yields a 0.700 quality score.",
"Remains -44.33% below its 52-week high with 46.92% volatility and no specific fundamental catalyst in the briefing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Persistent underperformance across both prior 105-session (-11.51% active) and recent 21-session (-7.36% active) windows.",
"Sharp -6.00% drop over the past 5 sessions on positive volume z-score (0.46) points to ongoing relative weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Unusual volume spike (2.60 z-score) accompanied a +3.00% recent active return and +1.49% 5-session return.",
"Low beta (0.10) and weak prior active return (-13.08%) amid sticky September CPI (+3.7% y/y) and Fed rate hikes limit upside vs equities."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Deeply negative prior active return (-25.11%) and recent active return (-11.07%), sitting -53.45% from its 52-week high.",
"Low quality score (0.310) and rising central bank policy rates (Fed at 3.75%-4.00%, ECB deposit rate at 2.50%) create headwinds for precious metals."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Collapsed -20.12% over the past 5 sessions on an extreme 5.20 volume z-score dislocation.",
"Combines a poor prior active trend (-16.02%), high volatility (52.50%), and the lowest quality score in the slate (0.310)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"BRAZIL",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 30,
"TAIWAN": 35,
"TECHNOLOGY": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Market breadth has improved over the 21-session window (RSP outperforming SPY by 3.18%), while high-quality technology and semiconductor leaders have experienced sharp short-term active pullbacks (-3.12% to -7.53%) despite strong prior medium-term trends (+14% to +23%). Meanwhile, September CPI (+0.6% m/m, energy +5.2%) and PPI (+1.3% m/m) combined with high refinery utilization (93.4%) support energy prices, though quality pullbacks in secular tech leaders offer the highest probability of 1-month mean reversion.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-4-argon",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The top three ranked candidates—TAIWAN (EWT), TECHNOLOGY (XLK), and SEMICONDUCTORS (SMH)—have the highest quality evidence scores in the slate (0.766, 0.738, and 0.732). Each exhibits a strong prior 105-session active uptrend (+14.03% to +22.75%) followed by a temporary 21-session relative pullback (-3.12% to -7.53%) on subdued volume, representing a high-probability mean-reversion setup over the one-month window.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Market breadth has improved over the 21-session window (RSP outperforming SPY by 3.18%), while high-quality technology and semiconductor leaders have experienced sharp short-term active pullbacks (-3.12% to -7.53%) despite strong prior medium-term trends (+14% to +23%). Meanwhile, September CPI (+0.6% m/m, energy +5.2%) and PPI (+1.3% m/m) combined with high refinery utilization (93.4%) support energy prices, though quality pullbacks in secular tech leaders offer the highest probability of 1-month mean reversion.",
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"replicate_index": 1,
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}openai-gpt-6-astra
Taiwan and semiconductors narrowly clear the reversal eligibility threshold because their relative pullbacks contrast with strong preceding trends. Energy ranks highly on a different, supported-continuation mechanism and should not be relabeled to qualify. Other reversal candidates lack sufficient confidence; unused capacity appropriately remains in SPY.
Large cross-sectional return gaps favor selective rather than indiscriminate reversal. Taiwan and semiconductors have stronger reversal setups than persistent laggards, while energy strength has independent inflation support. Hot inflation, recent monetary tightening and weak payroll growth limit conviction. The quality scores summarize price behavior, not corporate fundamentals. Five-session returns and 21-session active returns are distinct windows; the October 28 Fed decision will already be reflected in the entry close.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Taiwan and semiconductors share substantial chip-cycle exposure, making their reversal judgments correlated rather than independent.",
"November inflation and employment releases could sustain tightening expectations and prolong growth-asset underperformance.",
"The unknown October 28 Fed outcome occurs before entry and could materially change the attractiveness of the observed pullbacks.",
"November 3 election uncertainty could produce policy and currency repricing before the exit.",
"The quality scores contain no valuation or earnings evidence; apparently temporary pullbacks may reflect information absent from the briefing."
],
"metadata": {
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{
"evidence": [
"Recent 21-session active return of -6.59% contrasts with prior active strength of 22.75%.",
"Quality score is 0.766; volatility of 28.74% and drawdown of -11.87% are less extreme than Korea and semiconductors.",
"No Taiwan-specific deterioration is supplied; the reversal judgment remains tentative rather than fundamentally confirmed."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 14.03% precedes a -7.53% relative pullback.",
"Five-session return of 2.13% suggests some stabilization, without establishing a new trend.",
"Quality score of 0.732 is offset by 36.84% volatility and a -17.44% drawdown."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
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"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"September CPI energy rose 5.2%, providing support beyond the sector's recent 9.31% active gain.",
"Refinery utilization was 93.4%, although a weekly observation cannot establish sustained demand.",
"Volatility of 21.64% is substantially below oil's 41.52%; proximity to the annual high leaves reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The -14.76% recent active return reverses prior active strength of 10.80%.",
"Quality score is 0.704, but volatility is 52.91% and drawdown is -22.61%.",
"Volume z-score of -0.37 does not establish capitulation; no country-specific recovery catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -19,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 21,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Energy CPI increased 5.2%, while oil's 21-session return was 9.25%.",
"EIA reported high refinery utilization and lower weekly crude imports, but no inventory or futures-curve evidence is supplied.",
"Payroll growth of only 29,000 creates a demand-side counterweight to inflation support."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active strength of 15.41% contrasts with a smaller -3.12% recent pullback.",
"Quality score is 0.738 and drawdown is shallower than semiconductors at -9.73%.",
"September's Fed increase and elevated inflation constrain the rate-sensitive reversal case."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of -12.80% follows prior active strength of 7.89%, warranting a reversal test.",
"Volatility is 46.92% and distance from the annual high is -44.33%.",
"No network, flow or regulatory catalyst is supplied to distinguish temporary selling from repricing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -19,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY has a 0.53% 21-session return and 10.73% volatility.",
"Equal-weight equities outperformed SPY by 3.18 points over 21 sessions, but most constituents fell on October 27."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active strength of 5.49% follows prior active gains of 15.94%.",
"Volume z-score is -1.07 and volatility is 33.51%.",
"No software-specific fundamental catalyst is supplied to support extrapolating those gains."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 2.60 accompanies a positive 3.00% active return, not a recent selloff.",
"Volatility is low at 5.26%, but prior active return was -13.08%.",
"Weak payroll growth supports defensive demand while elevated inflation threatens duration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active strength of 43.42% and recent active strength of 7.32% are substantial but descriptive.",
"Volume z-score is 1.32 and price is only 0.32% below its annual high.",
"No cybersecurity-specific earnings or spending evidence independently supports continuation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of -7.36% extends prior underperformance of -11.51%.",
"The five-session decline of -6.00% occurred with a positive 0.46 volume z-score.",
"Quality score of 0.493 and absent sector-specific evidence do not establish an overshoot or fundamental deterioration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of -11.07% extends prior active weakness of -25.11%.",
"Quality score is 0.310 and drawdown is -22.48%; distance from the annual high alone does not establish value.",
"Inflation offers a potential hedge rationale, but monetary tightening and dollar strength are counterweights."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -17,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Five-session return was -20.12% with an exceptional volume z-score of 5.20.",
"Prior active weakness of -16.02% and a 0.310 quality score weaken the isolated-shock interpretation.",
"The briefing provides no explanation for the dislocation, preventing a confident distinction between forced selling and lasting repricing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -23,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"BRAZIL",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SP500": 30,
"TAIWAN": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Large cross-sectional return gaps favor selective rather than indiscriminate reversal. Taiwan and semiconductors have stronger reversal setups than persistent laggards, while energy strength has independent inflation support. Hot inflation, recent monetary tightening and weak payroll growth limit conviction. The quality scores summarize price behavior, not corporate fundamentals. Five-session returns and 21-session active returns are distinct windows; the October 28 Fed decision will already be reflected in the entry close.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ENERGY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Taiwan and semiconductors narrowly clear the reversal eligibility threshold because their relative pullbacks contrast with strong preceding trends. Energy ranks highly on a different, supported-continuation mechanism and should not be relabeled to qualify. Other reversal candidates lack sufficient confidence; unused capacity appropriately remains in SPY.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Large cross-sectional return gaps favor selective rather than indiscriminate reversal. Taiwan and semiconductors have stronger reversal setups than persistent laggards, while energy strength has independent inflation support. Hot inflation, recent monetary tightening and weak payroll growth limit conviction. The quality scores summarize price behavior, not corporate fundamentals. Five-session returns and 21-session active returns are distinct windows; the October 28 Fed decision will already be reflected in the entry close.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15618,
"latency_seconds": 34.51455940096639,
"output_tokens": 3210,
"reasoning_tokens": 146,
"total_tokens": 18828
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Top ranks favor quality pullback reversals in semis/Taiwan/tech after strong priors and moderate recent underperformance; energy offers secondary continuation but lower edge. High dispersion and macro event risk inside the window favor limited non-SPY eligibility under the overreaction+55% rule, leaving most weight implicitly to SPY.
Elevated cross-sectional dispersion with mixed signals: quality tech/semiconductor pullbacks after strong priors, energy short-term strength, and several high-vol international/crypto/metal shocks amid sticky inflation data, pending FOMC outcome, and multiple macro releases inside the one-month window.
{
"confidence": 0.5867,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Unknown FOMC decision on entry day and subsequent rate-path volatility",
"Sticky CPI/PPI prints and multiple data releases (GDP, ECI, jobs, CPI) inside window",
"High-beta semiconductor and EM equity sensitivity to growth/geopolitics shocks",
"Energy continuation vulnerable to inventory or demand surprises"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +14.03% with quality score 0.732",
"recent active -7.53% and 52w-high distance -16.58%",
"horizon vol 36.84% but shallow relative to prior strength"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"highest quality evidence score 0.766 among slate",
"prior active +22.75% then recent active -6.59%",
"SPY beta 1.88 with distance to 52w high -9.11%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.738 with prior active +15.41%",
"recent active only -3.12% and 52w distance -6.19%",
"high SPY corr 0.85 supports mean-reversion potential"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.704 and prior active +10.80%",
"recent active -14.76% with max drawdown -22.61%",
"extreme vol 52.91% and beta 2.95"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality 0.700 with prior active +7.89%",
"recent active -12.80% and 52w distance -44.33%",
"vol 46.92% limits reliability of bounce"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 17,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -7.36% after prior -11.51%",
"quality 0.493 and volume z 0.46",
"lower beta 0.68 vs tech peers"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +9.31% with negative SPY corr -0.24",
"horizon max DD only -6.15%",
"oil complex strength in mechanical state"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +8.72% and 21s return support",
"negative beta to SPY",
"EIA utilization and import data in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +5.49% and prior +15.94%",
"quality 0.530",
"volume z -1.07 indicates lighter recent activity"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"strong recent +9.21% and prior active +43.42%",
"near 52w high -0.32%",
"elevated volume z 1.32"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active already -25.11% then further -11.07%",
"quality only 0.310 and 52w distance -53.45%",
"high vol 39.32%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"extreme 5s return -20.12% and volume z 5.20",
"quality 0.310 with prior active -16.02%",
"vol 52.50% and deep drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"low vol 5.26% and recent +1.49%",
"volume z 2.60 dislocation",
"quality 0.338 and rate-sensitive profile"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark with 5s return 0.08%",
"horizon vol 10.73% and max DD -3.06%",
"distance to 52w high -1.21%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"BRAZIL",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"TAIWAN": 35,
"TECHNOLOGY": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"TECHNOLOGY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Elevated cross-sectional dispersion with mixed signals: quality tech/semiconductor pullbacks after strong priors, energy short-term strength, and several high-vol international/crypto/metal shocks amid sticky inflation data, pending FOMC outcome, and multiple macro releases inside the one-month window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"TECHNOLOGY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks favor quality pullback reversals in semis/Taiwan/tech after strong priors and moderate recent underperformance; energy offers secondary continuation but lower edge. High dispersion and macro event risk inside the window favor limited non-SPY eligibility under the overreaction+55% rule, leaving most weight implicitly to SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Elevated cross-sectional dispersion with mixed signals: quality tech/semiconductor pullbacks after strong priors, energy short-term strength, and several high-vol international/crypto/metal shocks amid sticky inflation data, pending FOMC outcome, and multiple macro releases inside the one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16854,
"latency_seconds": 27.580743674072437,
"output_tokens": 2335,
"reasoning_tokens": 0,
"total_tokens": 19189
}
}xai-grok-4-6
No slate name combines a clean overreaction label with a >=55% chance of beating SPY over one month. Energy/oil have the best independent continuation case versus a concentrated SPY, software is the least stretched medium-strength growth sleeve, and high-vol shock names fail the excess-return hurdle around FOMC, CPI, and the election.
SPY is near a 52-week high with low 21-session return while equal-weight, energy, and duration have outperformed; sticky September CPI/PPI and an unknown FOMC outcome on entry day favor mixed rather than one-way continuation. High-vol EM, crypto, and metals shocks sit beside short energy continuation and quality tech pullbacks.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Unknown Oct 27–28 FOMC decision lands on the entry date and can reverse duration, growth, and commodity correlations inside the window",
"November 3 election plus Oct CPI/PPI and employment prints can dominate one-month relative returns",
"Energy continuation can fail if crude mean-reverts after the 21-session rally",
"High-beta Korea/semis/crypto reversals can keep underperforming if risk appetite stays mixed"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active return +9.31% with negative SPY correlation and beta",
"Oil 21-session active +8.72% and EIA still showing high refinery utilization",
"Horizon vol 21.64% and drawdown only -6.15% versus many growth names"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session +2.04% and 21-session active +8.72% with negative SPY beta",
"EIA week ending Oct 16: 93.4% refinery utilization and imports still above year-ago four-week average",
"Distance to 52w high only -3.33% versus deep drawdowns in metals/crypto"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active +15.94% and 21-session active +5.49%",
"Quality evidence score 0.530 with 52w-high distance -4.51%",
"Volume z -1.07 shows the recent bounce without volume confirmation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +43.42% and 21-session active +7.32% with volume z +1.32",
"Only -0.32% from 52-week high, leaving limited mean-reversion cushion",
"Quality score 0.514 with high 35% horizon vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.738 with prior active +15.41% and modest 21-session active -3.12%",
"SPY corr 0.85 and beta 1.78 so excess vs SPY is limited",
"52w-high distance -6.19% after a 2.18% 5-session bounce"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality evidence score 0.766 with prior active +22.75%",
"21-session active -6.59% is a quality pullback, not a crash",
"Beta 1.88 and 28.74% vol versus SPY 10.73%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.732 with prior active +14.03% but 21-session active -7.53%",
"Horizon vol 36.84% and max drawdown -17.44%",
"Beta 2.42 versus SPY makes one-month excess noisy around FOMC/election"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +2.60 with 21-session active +3.00% and vol only 5.26%",
"Quality score 0.338 and prior active -13.08%",
"Sticky 3.7% CPI and in-progress FOMC cap duration upside versus equities"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session return +0.08% and 21-session 0% by construction",
"Horizon vol 10.73% and max drawdown -3.06% with -1.21% from 52w high",
"AP Oct 27: S&P 500 +0.6% while most constituents fell"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session -6.00% and 21-session active -7.36% with only 19.80% vol",
"Beta 0.68 versus SPY, so a bounce need not require a full risk-on tape",
"Quality 0.493 and prior active already -11.51%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active -14.76% after prior active +10.80%",
"Horizon vol 52.91%, drawdown -22.61%, beta 2.95",
"Quality evidence 0.704 from deep pullback plus prior trend, not low risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active -12.80% after prior active +7.89%",
"-44.33% from 52w high with 46.92% vol and beta 2.47",
"Quality 0.700 is pullback-driven, not a low-vol mean-reversion setup"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -25.11% plus 21-session active -11.07% and -53.45% from 52w high",
"Quality score 0.310 with vol 39.32%",
"Gold 21-session also negative, so the metals complex is not a one-name overshoot"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session -20.12% with volume z +5.20, a liquidation signature",
"Prior active already -16.02% and quality 0.310",
"Vol 52.50% and drawdown -21.57% with only 0.33 SPY corr"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"COMMUNICATIONS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"BRAZIL",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high with low 21-session return while equal-weight, energy, and duration have outperformed; sticky September CPI/PPI and an unknown FOMC outcome on entry day favor mixed rather than one-way continuation. High-vol EM, crypto, and metals shocks sit beside short energy continuation and quality tech pullbacks.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"SOFTWARE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No slate name combines a clean overreaction label with a >=55% chance of beating SPY over one month. Energy/oil have the best independent continuation case versus a concentrated SPY, software is the least stretched medium-strength growth sleeve, and high-vol shock names fail the excess-return hurdle around FOMC, CPI, and the election.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high with low 21-session return while equal-weight, energy, and duration have outperformed; sticky September CPI/PPI and an unknown FOMC outcome on entry day favor mixed rather than one-way continuation. High-vol EM, crypto, and metals shocks sit beside short energy continuation and quality tech pullbacks.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-27-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16996,
"latency_seconds": 38.75210849009454,
"output_tokens": 2699,
"reasoning_tokens": 566,
"total_tokens": 20261
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%Semiconductors (SMH)35%South Korea Equities (EWY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%Semiconductors (SMH)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 4 Argon google-gemini-4-argon | Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%Technology Sector (XLK)35%Semiconductors (SMH)30% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%Semiconductors (SMH)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%Technology Sector (XLK)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-28 | 207.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-28 | 91.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-28 | 27.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-28 | 29.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-28 | 116.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-28 | 157.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-28 | 46.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-28 | 33.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-28 | 64.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-28 | 20.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-28 | 61.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-28 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-28 | 49.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-28 | 103.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-28 | 115.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-28 | 86.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-28 | 40.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-28 | 166.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-28 | 107.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-28 | 70.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-28 | 91.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-28 | 57.02 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-28 | 68.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-28 | 217.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-28 | 53.60 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-28 | 103.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-28 | 87.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-28 | 56.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-28 | 76.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-28 | 179.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-28 | 77.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-28 | 46.79 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-28 | 168.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-28 | 90.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-28 | 47.28 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-28 | 104.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-28 | 94.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-28 | 58.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-28 | 80.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-28 | 51.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-28 | 101.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-28 | 74.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-28 | 103.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-28 | 725.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-28 | 42.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-28 | 72.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-28 | 772.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-28 | 567.67 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-28 | 91.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-28 | 49.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-28 | 111.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-28 | 40.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-28 | 64.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-28 | 165.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-28 | 108.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-28 | 191.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-28 | 379.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-28 | 106.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-28 | 47.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-28 | 95.89 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-28 | 35.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-28 | 29.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-28 | 123.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-28 | 258.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-28 | 75.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-28 | 73.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-28 | 303.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-28 | 281.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-28 | 214.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-28 | 42.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 339b0a702a7a...4bcdcc4c |
| manifest.yaml | ed209fa914c8...899d9b53 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 716f2e17dca2...64776303 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 4f3c500391d9...5a7185a0 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | c9c7fe0cd9b9...c1f5587f |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 06c792765905...9ca118f2 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 6547bc34056f...72e4bc0a |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 021cec8cb142...b9e70ad0 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |