Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Using the latest available interim close, Gemini 3.1 Pro in CB-2026-10-10-1M is ahead of the S&P 500 by +7.62 percentage points, while Grok 4.5 in CB-2026-10-27-1M is at -6.41 percentage points.
Live alpha is interim model return minus interim S&P 500 return. It is provisional until the round reaches its official score date.
11 public audit hashes are available.
6 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-11-23 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-20261022-1M
30,763 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-22-1M
- Decision date: 2026-10-23
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-23T01:57:32Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-23T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-10-23
- Exit date: 2026-11-23
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench factual briefing — October 22, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Inflation and monetary policy
- BLS, October 14: September CPI rose 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually. Core CPI rose 0.3% and 2.6%, respectively. Food was unchanged monthly; energy increased 5.2%.
- BLS, October 15: September final-demand PPI increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, increases were 0.5% and 5.0%. Producer and consumer price measures have different coverage and are not interchangeable.
- Federal Reserve, September 16: a unanimous decision increased the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. The October meeting has not yet occurred.
## Employment, spending, and housing
- Labor Department, October 22: initial unemployment claims for the week ending October 17 were 194,000, down 6,000 from a revised 200,000. The four-week average was 197,750. Insured unemployment for the week ending October 10 increased 25,000 to 1,728,000. Advance weekly estimates are revisable.
- BLS, October 2: September payroll employment rose 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%; these survey estimates are subject to revision.
- Census Bureau, October 15: September retail and food-service sales rose 0.8% monthly, with reported uncertainty ±0.4 percentage points, and 6.3% annually, ±0.5 points. Sales are seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted.
- National Association of Realtors, October 20: September pending home sales fell 7.3% monthly and 11.3% annually, with declines in all four regions. These are signed contracts, not completed sales; financing and closing delays can change the timing of completed transactions.
## Market observations
- Associated Press reported October 22 closes: S&P 500 7,663.43 (−1.2%); Dow 52,867.98 (up less than 0.1%); Nasdaq Composite 26,008.86 (−2.6%); Russell 2000 2,784.03 (+0.1%). These index observations are not ETF scoring prices.
- AP reported that approximately two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents rose on October 22 despite the index decline. The ten-year Treasury yield was 4.97%, versus 5.13% late Wednesday. A bond yield is not a bond-fund total return.
## Energy and international policy
- AP reported Brent crude at $113.17 per barrel, up 4% October 22.
- EIA's October 21 report, covering the week ending October 16, reported refinery inputs of 16.6 million barrels daily and 93.4% utilization. Crude imports were 5.8 million barrels daily, down 291,000 from the prior week; the four-week import average was 2.8% above a year earlier. These are weekly estimates.
- ECB, September 10 decision effective September 16: deposit, refinancing, and marginal lending rates increased to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%. Staff forecast 2026 growth of 0.9% and inflation of 3.0%. These are forecasts. The ECB reported substantial uncertainty and upside inflation/downside growth risks.
## Scheduled releases within the holding windows
- The Federal Reserve schedules its next FOMC meeting for October 27–28. BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BLS schedules the third-quarter Employment Cost Index for October 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. These fall before the weekly October 30 exit close and inside the monthly window.
- The monthly window also includes BLS releases scheduled for November 3 (September job openings, 10:00 a.m. Eastern), November 6 (October employment, 8:30 a.m.), November 10 (October CPI, 8:30 a.m.), and November 13 (October PPI, 8:30 a.m.). Calendars are subject to change; no release outcome is assumed.
The complete mechanical context stops at the October 22 close. Entry is the prospective October 23 close; exits are October 30 and November 23. No October 23 close or subsequent holding-window outcome is included. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. No fact here constitutes an option ranking, allocation recommendation, or expected-return mapping.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-22-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-22-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-23'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-23T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-5f7392bbcea6
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-23T01:54:11.293884+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-4-argon
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-10-23'
exit_date: '2026-11-23'
created_at: '2026-10-23T01:54:11.293884+00:00'
notes: Fresh direct public-source browsing on October 22 America/Toronto (October 23 UTC). Mechanical context through October 22 close; prospective October 23 close entry. Six-model frozen V3 roster; participant tools and search disabled.# CapitalBench factual briefing — October 22, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Inflation and monetary policy
- BLS, October 14: September CPI rose 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually. Core CPI rose 0.3% and 2.6%, respectively. Food was unchanged monthly; energy increased 5.2%.
- BLS, October 15: September final-demand PPI increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, increases were 0.5% and 5.0%. Producer and consumer price measures have different coverage and are not interchangeable.
- Federal Reserve, September 16: a unanimous decision increased the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%. The October meeting has not yet occurred.
## Employment, spending, and housing
- Labor Department, October 22: initial unemployment claims for the week ending October 17 were 194,000, down 6,000 from a revised 200,000. The four-week average was 197,750. Insured unemployment for the week ending October 10 increased 25,000 to 1,728,000. Advance weekly estimates are revisable.
- BLS, October 2: September payroll employment rose 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%; these survey estimates are subject to revision.
- Census Bureau, October 15: September retail and food-service sales rose 0.8% monthly, with reported uncertainty ±0.4 percentage points, and 6.3% annually, ±0.5 points. Sales are seasonally adjusted but not inflation-adjusted.
- National Association of Realtors, October 20: September pending home sales fell 7.3% monthly and 11.3% annually, with declines in all four regions. These are signed contracts, not completed sales; financing and closing delays can change the timing of completed transactions.
## Market observations
- Associated Press reported October 22 closes: S&P 500 7,663.43 (−1.2%); Dow 52,867.98 (up less than 0.1%); Nasdaq Composite 26,008.86 (−2.6%); Russell 2000 2,784.03 (+0.1%). These index observations are not ETF scoring prices.
- AP reported that approximately two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents rose on October 22 despite the index decline. The ten-year Treasury yield was 4.97%, versus 5.13% late Wednesday. A bond yield is not a bond-fund total return.
## Energy and international policy
- AP reported Brent crude at $113.17 per barrel, up 4% October 22.
- EIA's October 21 report, covering the week ending October 16, reported refinery inputs of 16.6 million barrels daily and 93.4% utilization. Crude imports were 5.8 million barrels daily, down 291,000 from the prior week; the four-week import average was 2.8% above a year earlier. These are weekly estimates.
- ECB, September 10 decision effective September 16: deposit, refinancing, and marginal lending rates increased to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%. Staff forecast 2026 growth of 0.9% and inflation of 3.0%. These are forecasts. The ECB reported substantial uncertainty and upside inflation/downside growth risks.
## Scheduled releases within the holding windows
- The Federal Reserve schedules its next FOMC meeting for October 27–28. BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BLS schedules the third-quarter Employment Cost Index for October 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. These fall before the weekly October 30 exit close and inside the monthly window.
- The monthly window also includes BLS releases scheduled for November 3 (September job openings, 10:00 a.m. Eastern), November 6 (October employment, 8:30 a.m.), November 10 (October CPI, 8:30 a.m.), and November 13 (October PPI, 8:30 a.m.). Calendars are subject to change; no release outcome is assumed.
The complete mechanical context stops at the October 22 close. Entry is the prospective October 23 close; exits are October 30 and November 23. No October 23 close or subsequent holding-window outcome is included. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. No fact here constitutes an option ranking, allocation recommendation, or expected-return mapping.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "227a3455ce6fa5d6998b16c810b9cb50995956bd55e46e437ef38114400d4adf",
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "84af93094e7c98a05a89f3d27f2bbe9d10839eccea5722f7a731f1505f2e64d8",
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"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "cd1632b31255e2d2234f48cec0ff5eb6b8c29ce5ed4af56c7dd8d610461ac300",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-22-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-22-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-22-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-4-argon
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-22-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-22-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-22-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Only Taiwan clears the overreaction and 55% bar: strong prior trend, moderate drawdown, high quality score, pullback without volume capitulation. Equal-weight S&P is a supported continuation on broad breadth and rotation out of mega-cap tech but is not an overreaction label. AI tech and semis get reversal tests but the hiking Fed, 10y near 5%, and the Oct 27-28 FOMC plus Nov 10 CPI keep their edge near coin-flip, so most of the portfolio defaults to SPY. Commodity-linked losers (silver, metals) show deterioration rather than overreaction; oil and Brazil are extended without an independent in-window edge beyond geopolitics already priced.
Stagflationary macro: CPI 3.7% with energy +5.2%, PPI 6.3%, Fed hiking to 3.75-4.00% with FOMC on Oct 27-28, Brent $113, 10y near 5%. Mega-cap tech and semis sold off sharply (Nasdaq -2.6% on Oct 22) while breadth was positive (two-thirds of S&P up, RSP beating SPY by 3.8% over 21 sessions). This is a rotation from crowded AI/semis leadership to equal-weight, value, and defensives rather than a broad risk-off. Shock-reversal candidates with strong prior trends (Taiwan, semis, Korea) deserve a reversal test, but the rate and inflation backdrop is a headwind for high-beta duration-like growth, so only the highest-quality pullbacks get modest overreaction credit. Equal-weight/value and energy have in-window macro support.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC Oct 27-28 hawkish surprise or hot Oct CPI (Nov 10) extends the selloff in high-beta Taiwan and AI tech",
"Semiconductor/AI de-rating continues rather than reverting, dragging Taiwan with beta 1.89",
"Brent above $113 feeding stagflation and a broad equity drawdown that hits every long candidate",
"Taiwan geopolitical or currency shock unrelated to the price-driven reversal thesis"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active return +24.62% with recent 21s active -7.06% and quality score 0.749, second highest in universe",
"Max drawdown -11.87% is shallow relative to Korea (-22.61%) and semis (-17.44%) with vol 31% vs 55% for Korea",
"Volume z -0.46 indicates no panic distribution during the pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"RSP beat SPY by 2.51% over 5s and 3.77% over 21s while two-thirds of S&P constituents rose on Oct 22 despite the index falling 1.2%",
"Vol 10.27% and drawdown -6.27%, with beta 0.677 cushioning mega-cap tech weakness",
"Fed hiking and 10y near 5% weigh on long-duration mega-cap growth concentration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality score in universe at 0.754 with prior active +14.40% and recent active -5.44%",
"Drawdown -7.50% and vol 25.5% are moderate versus semis; volume z -0.53 shows no capitulation",
"FOMC Oct 27-28 and Oct CPI Nov 10 are rate catalysts for high-beta growth (beta 1.96)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -12.48% after prior active +15.89%, recent pullback rank 0.970 and prior active rank 0.940",
"Max drawdown -17.44% and vol 38% with beta 2.42; 52w high distance -21.76%",
"Breadth was positive on Oct 22 implying rotation out of semis rather than broad selling"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +16.71%, recent active -6.15%, quality score 0.753",
"Beta 1.78 against a Fed hiking cycle and 10y yield 4.97%",
"Nasdaq -2.6% on Oct 22 while S&P breadth was positive"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -19.21% after prior active +14.36%; pullback rank 1.000",
"Vol 54.79% highest in universe, drawdown -22.61%, 32% below 52w high, beta 2.95",
"Semi-linked export exposure with no briefing catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent $113.17 up 4% on Oct 22; USO 21s return +9.19% and at 52w high",
"CPI energy +5.2% monthly, PPI 6.3% y/y, refinery utilization 93.4%",
"Vol 47% and negative SPY beta -1.53 make it a hedge but high variance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +47.40% is the top prior trend rank; recent active -0.65% with no pullback",
"Volume z 1.07 and vol 34% with 52w high distance -6.54%",
"Crowded extended trend without an in-window catalyst in the briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +20.45%, recent active +1.07%, volume z -1.07",
"Vol 33.95% with rates near 5% a headwind for long-duration software"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +8.35% after prior active -21.49%, volume z 3.44",
"Quality score 0.119 and drawdown -14.58%; 10y yield fell to 4.97% from 5.13% on Oct 22",
"Fed hiking cycle and CPI 3.7% limit rate-sensitive defensive rally"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5s -1.01%, 21s -0.50%, drawdown -3.06%, 1.94% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +12.49% with volume z 2.95 after prior active -14.82%",
"Lowest quality score in universe at 0.110; vol 33.76%",
"Commodity exposure supported by Brent $113 but no briefing-specific Brazil catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.00 highest in universe; recent active +1.96% after prior active -12.56%",
"Vol 5.24%; Fed still hiking with CPI 3.7% and PPI 6.3% limits duration upside"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -10.63% after prior active +6.63%; 43% below 52w high",
"Vol 47.49% and beta 2.51 amid Fed tightening and risk rotation out of high beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.35% on top of prior active -15.65%, quality score 0.330, drawdown -21.42%",
"Gold 21s -6.04% and copper 21s active -4.77% show no commodity-side support",
"Volume z -0.72 shows fading interest rather than capitulation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -14.66% after prior active -23.87%; 53% below 52w high",
"Fed hiking with 10y near 5% and dollar 21s +0.87% are headwinds for precious metals; gold 21s -6.04%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 65,
"TAIWAN": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Stagflationary macro: CPI 3.7% with energy +5.2%, PPI 6.3%, Fed hiking to 3.75-4.00% with FOMC on Oct 27-28, Brent $113, 10y near 5%. Mega-cap tech and semis sold off sharply (Nasdaq -2.6% on Oct 22) while breadth was positive (two-thirds of S&P up, RSP beating SPY by 3.8% over 21 sessions). This is a rotation from crowded AI/semis leadership to equal-weight, value, and defensives rather than a broad risk-off. Shock-reversal candidates with strong prior trends (Taiwan, semis, Korea) deserve a reversal test, but the rate and inflation backdrop is a headwind for high-beta duration-like growth, so only the highest-quality pullbacks get modest overreaction credit. Equal-weight/value and energy have in-window macro support.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"BROAD_AI_TECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Taiwan clears the overreaction and 55% bar: strong prior trend, moderate drawdown, high quality score, pullback without volume capitulation. Equal-weight S&P is a supported continuation on broad breadth and rotation out of mega-cap tech but is not an overreaction label. AI tech and semis get reversal tests but the hiking Fed, 10y near 5%, and the Oct 27-28 FOMC plus Nov 10 CPI keep their edge near coin-flip, so most of the portfolio defaults to SPY. Commodity-linked losers (silver, metals) show deterioration rather than overreaction; oil and Brazil are extended without an independent in-window edge beyond geopolitics already priced.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Stagflationary macro: CPI 3.7% with energy +5.2%, PPI 6.3%, Fed hiking to 3.75-4.00% with FOMC on Oct 27-28, Brent $113, 10y near 5%. Mega-cap tech and semis sold off sharply (Nasdaq -2.6% on Oct 22) while breadth was positive (two-thirds of S&P up, RSP beating SPY by 3.8% over 21 sessions). This is a rotation from crowded AI/semis leadership to equal-weight, value, and defensives rather than a broad risk-off. Shock-reversal candidates with strong prior trends (Taiwan, semis, Korea) deserve a reversal test, but the rate and inflation backdrop is a headwind for high-beta duration-like growth, so only the highest-quality pullbacks get modest overreaction credit. Equal-weight/value and energy have in-window macro support.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27579,
"latency_seconds": 59.76303307793569,
"output_tokens": 4694,
"total_tokens": 32273
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
Quality tech and Asia pullbacks have the best reversal setups, but rate hikes, $113 oil and a 5% 10y yield cap my conviction below 55%. That leaves no candidate eligible, so the portfolio defaults to SPY.
The macro backdrop is stagflationary: Brent is at $113, headline CPI is 3.7%, PPI is 6.3%, and the Fed raised rates in September. On October 22 there was a sharp rotation out of tech (Nasdaq -2.6%) while the equal-weight index and defensives led. The FOMC meeting on Oct 27-28, GDP, payrolls and CPI all fall inside the window, so event risk is high. Tech pullbacks have a strong prior trend behind them but face rate and oil headwinds; the defensive rotation has macro support.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC on Oct 27-28 or a hot October CPI could deepen the de-rating of high-beta tech",
"An oil spike could worsen stagflation",
"A sharp reversal of the mega-cap selloff would hurt defensives"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +24.62% vs recent -7.06%",
"quality score 0.749"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.754",
"prior active +14.40%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -12.48% after prior +15.89%",
"vol 38%, beta 2.42"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -6.15%",
"10y yield 4.97% with Fed hiking"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +20.45%",
"volume z -1.07"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +8.35%, volume z 3.44",
"prior active -21.49%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +47.4% suggests extended trend"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -19.21%",
"vol 54.79%, beta 2.95"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent $113, +4% Oct 22",
"vol 47%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 4.00",
"beta 0.10"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"52w-high distance -43%",
"vol 47%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +12.49%, volume z 2.95",
"quality 0.110"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active -15.65%, recent -11.35%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-53% from 52w high",
"gold also -6% over 21d amid rising real rates"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The macro backdrop is stagflationary: Brent is at $113, headline CPI is 3.7%, PPI is 6.3%, and the Fed raised rates in September. On October 22 there was a sharp rotation out of tech (Nasdaq -2.6%) while the equal-weight index and defensives led. The FOMC meeting on Oct 27-28, GDP, payrolls and CPI all fall inside the window, so event risk is high. Tech pullbacks have a strong prior trend behind them but face rate and oil headwinds; the defensive rotation has macro support.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Quality tech and Asia pullbacks have the best reversal setups, but rate hikes, $113 oil and a 5% 10y yield cap my conviction below 55%. That leaves no candidate eligible, so the portfolio defaults to SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "The macro backdrop is stagflationary: Brent is at $113, headline CPI is 3.7%, PPI is 6.3%, and the Fed raised rates in September. On October 22 there was a sharp rotation out of tech (Nasdaq -2.6%) while the equal-weight index and defensives led. The FOMC meeting on Oct 27-28, GDP, payrolls and CPI all fall inside the window, so event risk is high. Tech pullbacks have a strong prior trend behind them but face rate and oil headwinds; the defensive rotation has macro support.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27579,
"latency_seconds": 25.151432289974764,
"output_tokens": 2966,
"total_tokens": 30545
}
}google-gemini-4-argon
The ranking prioritizes high-quality growth assets experiencing temporary, low-volume pullbacks within dominant medium-term uptrends. TECHNOLOGY (XLK), BROAD_AI_TECH (AIQ), and TAIWAN (EWT) hold the top three quality evidence scores across the entire 68-asset universe (0.753, 0.754, and 0.749) and exhibit classic overreaction characteristics with Controlled drawdowns (-7.50% to -11.87%) relative to higher-volatility shock losers like EWY and SLV.
Cross-sectional dispersion is high, characterized by a sharp short-term rotation out of mega-cap technology and growth (QQQ -4.46% active 21d, Nasdaq -2.6% on Oct 22) into defensive, value, and energy segments (RSP +3.77% active 21d, two-thirds of S&P 500 rising on Oct 22). However, top-tier technology and AI leaders (AIQ, XLK, EWT) possess the strongest medium-term relative strength in the universe (quality scores 0.749-0.754) and pulled back on low volume (-0.35 to -0.53 z-scores) as the 10-year Treasury yield eased from 5.13% to 4.97%, setting up a high-probability quality reversal over the coming month.
{
"confidence": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The October 27-28 FOMC decision and subsequent November 10 CPI / November 13 PPI releases could reignite Treasury yield spikes above 5.13%, pressuring long-duration technology and AI equities.",
"Brent crude oil surging above $113.17/barrel (+5.2% monthly energy CPI) risks embedding headline inflation and squeezing corporate margins.",
"High beta and volatility in semiconductor and Asian tech supply chains (EWT, XLK, AIQ) could amplify drawdowns if mega-cap growth rotation into value/defensives persists."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Technology sector holds the second-highest quality evidence score in the universe at 0.753, backed by a 16.71% prior active return.",
"Recent 21-day active pullback of -6.15% and 5-day return of -3.62% occurred alongside a narrowing market where two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents rose on October 22 while Nasdaq fell 2.6%.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield eased from 5.13% to 4.97% on October 22, relieving immediate rate pressure ahead of the October 27-28 FOMC meeting."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Broad AI Technology has the highest quality evidence score in the 68-asset universe at 0.754, combining a 0.925 prior active rank with a 0.821 recent pullback rank.",
"Recent 21-day active return of -5.44% represents a relatively shallow drawdown (-7.50% max 63-day drawdown) against a strong +14.40% prior 105-day active trend.",
"Volume z-score of -0.529 during the pullback indicates lack of high-volume institutional liquidation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Taiwan Equities ranks third in the universe for quality evidence score (0.749) with a 24.62% prior active return (0.985 percentile rank).",
"Recent 21-day active pullback of -7.06% (-4.72% 5-day return) occurred on muted volume (volume z-score -0.464), consistent with temporary profit-taking rather than structural breakdown.",
"Moderate 63-day max drawdown of -11.87% compared to higher-beta semiconductor peers."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Semiconductors posted a severe -12.48% recent 21-day active return (-6.35% over 5 days) despite a strong +15.89% prior 105-day active trend and 0.731 quality score.",
"High 63-day volatility (38.18%) and deep max drawdown (-17.44%) elevate tail risk relative to broader technology ETFs."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Cybersecurity has the strongest prior 105-day active return in the universe at +47.40% (1.000 percentile rank).",
"Held up during the recent tech selloff with a -0.65% 21-day active return and elevated volume (z-score 1.07)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Software posted a +20.45% prior active return (0.970 rank) and positive 21-day active return (+1.07%).",
"Volume z-score of -1.07 indicates low recent participation, limiting conviction ahead of macro releases."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 4% on October 22 to $113.17/barrel, driving September energy CPI up 5.2% monthly and USO up 9.69% active over 21 days.",
"EIA reported high refinery utilization at 93.4% and lower weekly crude imports (-291,000 bpd), though 47.09% volatility and trading at 52-week highs introduce pullback risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark S&P 500 declined 1.01% over 5 days and 0.50% over 21 days while Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) gained 3.77% active over 21 days.",
"Broad market breadth remained resilient with two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents rising on October 22 and initial jobless claims falling to 194,000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"South Korea experienced an extreme -19.21% 21-day active selloff against a +14.36% prior active trend.",
"Extremely high 63-day volatility (54.79%), SPY beta of 2.95, and -32.00% distance from 52-week high create severe downside risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Utilities gained 8.35% active over 21 days on an extreme volume surge (z-score 3.44) as 10-year yields dipped below 5%.",
"Prior 105-day active trend is deeply negative (-21.49%) with a low quality score of 0.119, facing headwinds from elevated inflation (3.7% CPI, 6.3% PPI) and the upcoming Fed meeting."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Municipal Bonds saw a 4.00 volume z-score dislocation and +1.96% 21-day active return.",
"Low volatility (5.24%) and low beta (0.10) limit upside relative to equities, while prior active return is -12.56% amid Fed tightening (3.75%-4.00% target range)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brazil surged 12.49% active over 21 days with a 2.95 volume z-score.",
"Prior 105-day active trend is -14.82% and quality score is the lowest on the slate at 0.110, suggesting an overextended short-term bounce."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Ethereum ETF fell 10.63% active over 21 days and remains 43.43% below its 52-week high with 47.49% volatility.",
"Lacks in-window fundamental catalysts and faces tight monetary policy headwinds."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Metals and Mining declined 11.35% active over 21 days following a -15.65% prior 105-day active decline.",
"Persistent multi-horizon underperformance, -21.42% max drawdown, and 0.330 quality score point to ongoing fundamental deterioration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Silver suffered a -14.66% recent active decline compounding a -23.87% prior 105-day active loss, sitting 53.28% below its 52-week high.",
"High real rates (10-year Treasury yield at 4.97%) and Fed tightening continue to pressure precious metals (Gold also down 5.53% active over 21 days)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BROAD_AI_TECH": 35,
"TAIWAN": 30,
"TECHNOLOGY": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TECHNOLOGY",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"TAIWAN"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "reversal",
"market_rationale": "Cross-sectional dispersion is high, characterized by a sharp short-term rotation out of mega-cap technology and growth (QQQ -4.46% active 21d, Nasdaq -2.6% on Oct 22) into defensive, value, and energy segments (RSP +3.77% active 21d, two-thirds of S&P 500 rising on Oct 22). However, top-tier technology and AI leaders (AIQ, XLK, EWT) possess the strongest medium-term relative strength in the universe (quality scores 0.749-0.754) and pulled back on low volume (-0.35 to -0.53 z-scores) as the 10-year Treasury yield eased from 5.13% to 4.97%, setting up a high-probability quality reversal over the coming month.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TECHNOLOGY",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"TAIWAN"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-4-argon",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The ranking prioritizes high-quality growth assets experiencing temporary, low-volume pullbacks within dominant medium-term uptrends. TECHNOLOGY (XLK), BROAD_AI_TECH (AIQ), and TAIWAN (EWT) hold the top three quality evidence scores across the entire 68-asset universe (0.753, 0.754, and 0.749) and exhibit classic overreaction characteristics with Controlled drawdowns (-7.50% to -11.87%) relative to higher-volatility shock losers like EWY and SLV.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Cross-sectional dispersion is high, characterized by a sharp short-term rotation out of mega-cap technology and growth (QQQ -4.46% active 21d, Nasdaq -2.6% on Oct 22) into defensive, value, and energy segments (RSP +3.77% active 21d, two-thirds of S&P 500 rising on Oct 22). However, top-tier technology and AI leaders (AIQ, XLK, EWT) possess the strongest medium-term relative strength in the universe (quality scores 0.749-0.754) and pulled back on low volume (-0.35 to -0.53 z-scores) as the 10-year Treasury yield eased from 5.13% to 4.97%, setting up a high-probability quality reversal over the coming month.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18765,
"latency_seconds": 41.67883767001331,
"output_tokens": 3792,
"total_tokens": 22557
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Oil and equal-weight equities have the strongest independent support, but their cases are continuation rather than overreaction. Broad AI and technology offer tentative reversal opportunities without reaching the required 55% confidence threshold. No candidate meets both eligibility conditions, so the deterministic rule retains SPY rather than forcing unsupported contrarian exposure.
Large relative-return gaps and improving equal-weight breadth indicate rotation rather than indiscriminate liquidation; the supplied dispersion statistic itself is missing. Energy inflation and recent monetary tightening support caution toward long-duration growth assets. Selected technology pullbacks merit reversal consideration, but the briefing supplies no earnings or valuation evidence sufficient to establish a high-confidence rebound before November 23.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The October 27–28 FOMC and November inflation releases could intensify tightening expectations and extend technology underperformance.",
"A rapid oil-price reversal could undermine the highest-ranked continuation thesis and reverse sector rotation.",
"A sharp rebound in semiconductors, Korean equities, or crypto could make cautious reversal probabilities too conservative.",
"The prospective October 23 entry close may materially differ from the frozen October 22 observations."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"September CPI energy rose 5.2%; Brent closed October 22 at $113.17, up 4%.",
"Refinery utilization was 93.4%, providing some demand support, but weekly imports do not establish a supply shortage.",
"Oil is at its 52-week high with 47.09% volatility, leaving substantial reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -17,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 22,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Approximately two-thirds of S&P 500 constituents rose on October 22 despite the index decline, supporting a breadth exposure missed by the slate.",
"Equal-weight outperformed SPY by 3.77 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"Volatility was 10.27%; reduced mega-cap concentration offers a different exposure from the slate's technology pullbacks."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -5.44% follows prior active strength of 14.40%.",
"Quality score of 0.754 and 7.50% drawdown compare favorably with the more extreme technology losers.",
"The ten-year yield fell to 4.97% from 5.13%, offering potential valuation relief, but inflation and the upcoming FOMC constrain conviction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 16.71%, followed by a 6.15% relative pullback.",
"Quality score is 0.753, but the 9.73% drawdown and 1.783 beta indicate meaningful rate sensitivity.",
"Lower October 22 Treasury yields provide tentative relief; September's Fed hike and elevated PPI remain counterweights."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 24.62% substantially exceeds the recent 7.06% relative pullback.",
"Quality score is 0.749, with 31.46% volatility and an 11.87% drawdown.",
"The briefing supplies no Taiwan-specific fundamental catalyst to validate a rebound within the month."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 47.40%, but recent active return is only -0.65%, not an extreme dislocation.",
"Volume z-score is 1.07 and volatility is 34.39%; neither establishes a favorable return direction.",
"No cybersecurity-specific demand or earnings catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active strength of 8.35% follows prior active weakness of -21.49%.",
"Volume z-score of 3.44 signals unusual activity, not necessarily further buying.",
"Falling October 22 yields support rate-sensitive defensives, but inflation and the FOMC could reverse that support."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY's 21-session return was -0.50%, with an 11.03% volatility estimate and 3.06% drawdown.",
"Broad constituent participation contrasts with concentrated index weakness.",
"Relative return against itself is identically zero."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return remains positive at 1.07% after prior active gains of 20.45%.",
"Volatility is 33.95% and volume z-score is -1.07.",
"No software-specific fundamental evidence supports extrapolating the earlier strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score is 4.00, but recent active return is already positive at 1.96%.",
"Volatility of 5.24% supports a defensive role rather than an exceptional upside forecast.",
"Elevated CPI and PPI create duration risk despite the latest Treasury-yield decline."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 12.48% follows prior active gains of 15.89%, warranting a reversal test.",
"Volatility is 38.18%, drawdown is 17.44%, and beta is 2.421.",
"The briefing provides no chip-demand or earnings evidence to distinguish excessive selling from justified repricing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 19.21% more than reverses prior active gains of 14.36%.",
"Volatility of 54.79% and drawdown of 22.61% are the weakest percentile observations in the supplied quality table.",
"A 0.710 quality score is largely technical; no country-specific recovery catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -21,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 21,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active gains of 12.49% follow prior active losses of 14.82%.",
"Volume z-score is 2.95, but quality score is only 0.110.",
"Commodity sensitivity offers a possible inflation linkage, but no Brazil-specific policy or earnings support is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 10.63% exceeds prior active gains of 6.63%.",
"Volatility is 47.49%, beta is 2.506, and the fund is 43.43% below its 52-week high.",
"The Fed recently tightened; no network, regulatory, or flow catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 19,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active losses of 14.66% extend prior active losses of 23.87%, weakening the isolated-overreaction explanation.",
"Silver is 53.28% below its high, with a 21.40% drawdown and quality score of 0.313.",
"Inflation could support precious-metal demand, but monetary tightening is a counterweight and no silver-specific catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -17,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 11.35% follows prior active loss of 15.65%, rather than interrupting a strong trend.",
"Drawdown is 21.42% and quality score is 0.330.",
"Weak payroll growth and falling pending home sales challenge cyclical demand; high producer inflation does not establish stronger mining margins."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Large relative-return gaps and improving equal-weight breadth indicate rotation rather than indiscriminate liquidation; the supplied dispersion statistic itself is missing. Energy inflation and recent monetary tightening support caution toward long-duration growth assets. Selected technology pullbacks merit reversal consideration, but the briefing supplies no earnings or valuation evidence sufficient to establish a high-confidence rebound before November 23.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"BROAD_AI_TECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Oil and equal-weight equities have the strongest independent support, but their cases are continuation rather than overreaction. Broad AI and technology offer tentative reversal opportunities without reaching the required 55% confidence threshold. No candidate meets both eligibility conditions, so the deterministic rule retains SPY rather than forcing unsupported contrarian exposure.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Large relative-return gaps and improving equal-weight breadth indicate rotation rather than indiscriminate liquidation; the supplied dispersion statistic itself is missing. Energy inflation and recent monetary tightening support caution toward long-duration growth assets. Selected technology pullbacks merit reversal consideration, but the briefing supplies no earnings or valuation evidence sufficient to establish a high-confidence rebound before November 23.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15656,
"latency_seconds": 43.044942906009965,
"output_tokens": 3634,
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}
}xai-grok-4-5
Highest-conviction edges are quality-supported shock reversals in semis and EM Asia after extreme active drawdowns; most other slate names lack sufficient overreaction-plus-55% edge, so deterministic rule likely fills remaining slots with SPY amid sticky inflation and FOMC risk.
Sticky CPI/PPI and recent Fed hike support higher-for-longer rates while oil spikes and equal-weight outperformance signal rotation; mega-cap/tech and EM Asia semis show sharp pullbacks after strong priors amid elevated cross-sectional dispersion.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further upside inflation surprises or hawkish Oct 27-28 FOMC could extend growth/tech selloff",
"Oil spike and energy volatility may reverse if supply response or demand softens",
"High-beta EM/semiconductor names remain vulnerable to USD strength or geopolitics",
"Equal-weight outperformance may continue rotating away from concentrated tech"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
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{
"evidence": [
"recent active -12.48% after prior active +15.89%",
"quality evidence score 0.731 with deep pullback rank 0.970",
"horizon vol 38% and max DD -17% but SPY beta 2.42"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"quality score 0.710 with pullback rank 1.000",
"distance to 52w high -32%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16.5,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -7.06% after prior +24.62%",
"quality score 0.749",
"semiconductor-linked exposure with pullback from highs"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 3,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -6.15% after prior +16.71%",
"quality score 0.753",
"distance 52w high -9.73%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -5.44% after prior +14.40%",
"quality score 0.754",
"vol 25.5% with shallowish DD -7.5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
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],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent return +3.31% and active +9.69%",
"Brent at $113.17 up 4% on Oct 22",
"negative SPY corr -0.39"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -10.63% after prior +6.63%",
"quality score 0.699",
"high vol 47% and -43% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
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],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +1.07% after strong prior +20.45%",
"quality 0.634",
"volume z -1.07"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +47.40% with mild recent -0.65%",
"quality 0.663",
"volume z +1.07"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -14.66% and prior -23.87%",
"quality only 0.313",
"53% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
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"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -11.35% after prior -15.65%",
"quality 0.330",
"high vol and deep DD"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +12.49%",
"volume z 2.95",
"low quality score 0.110"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent +2.93% and active +8.35%",
"volume z 3.44",
"quality score only 0.119"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"low vol 5.24% and recent +0.74%",
"volume z 4.00",
"quality 0.387"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark with recent -1.01%",
"horizon vol 11%",
"max DD -3.06%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SOUTH_KOREA": 35,
"TAIWAN": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"TAIWAN"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Sticky CPI/PPI and recent Fed hike support higher-for-longer rates while oil spikes and equal-weight outperformance signal rotation; mega-cap/tech and EM Asia semis show sharp pullbacks after strong priors amid elevated cross-sectional dispersion.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"TAIWAN"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction edges are quality-supported shock reversals in semis and EM Asia after extreme active drawdowns; most other slate names lack sufficient overreaction-plus-55% edge, so deterministic rule likely fills remaining slots with SPY amid sticky inflation and FOMC risk.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Sticky CPI/PPI and recent Fed hike support higher-for-longer rates while oil spikes and equal-weight outperformance signal rotation; mega-cap/tech and EM Asia semis show sharp pullbacks after strong priors amid elevated cross-sectional dispersion.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16893,
"latency_seconds": 44.241727810003795,
"output_tokens": 2932,
"reasoning_tokens": 289,
"total_tokens": 20114
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Highest-ranked names are quality pullbacks in Taiwan and US tech/AI after strong prior-active trends, but none clear a high-confidence one-month edge versus SPY given 25–55% vols, betas well above 1, and a dense FOMC/CPI calendar. Shock-reversal commodities and crypto remain too two-sided; defensive volume spikes in munis and utilities are not enough to beat SPY. Prefer the benchmark unless a labeled overreaction also has p_beat at least 55.
SPY is only modestly below its 52-week high while equal-weight has outperformed cap-weight, oil is strong, and hot CPI/PPI plus a scheduled FOMC meeting raise rate-path risk. High-beta Asia/tech names show large prior-active gains then sharp recent drawdowns with elevated vol, so the month is mixed continuation versus mean-reversion rather than a clean trend.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October 27–28 FOMC and November CPI/PPI can reprice duration-sensitive growth and Asia beta",
"Energy spike and 3.7% CPI keep inflation-risk premia elevated versus high-vol cyclicals",
"Equal-weight outperformance can persist if mega-cap tech remains the source of index weakness",
"Korea/semiconductor 38–55% horizon vol can dominate any mean-reversion over one month"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return +24.62% with quality evidence score 0.749",
"Recent active -7.06% and 52w-high distance -11.87%",
"Horizon vol 31.46% and SPY beta 1.89"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.753 with prior active +16.71%",
"Recent active -6.15% and drawdown -9.73%",
"SPY corr 0.85 and beta 1.78"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality evidence score 0.754 and prior active +14.40%",
"Recent active -5.44% and 52w-high distance -11.50%",
"Horizon vol 25.52% with SPY beta 1.96"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +20.45% with quality score 0.634",
"Recent return only -0.80% and max drawdown -8.27%",
"Volume z -1.07"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +47.40% and quality score 0.663",
"Recent return -0.70% with 52w-high distance -6.54%",
"Volume z 1.07"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return -1.01% and 52w-high distance -1.94%",
"Horizon vol 11.03% and max drawdown -3.06%",
"RSP minus SPY 5s is +2.51%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -12.48% after prior active +15.89%",
"Quality score 0.731 but horizon vol 38.18% and beta 2.42",
"52w-high distance -21.76%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -19.21% after prior active +14.36%",
"Horizon vol 54.79% and max drawdown -22.61%",
"Quality score 0.710 with beta 2.95"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +3.31% and 21s active +9.69%",
"Brent reported at $113.17, up 4% on October 22",
"Negative SPY corr -0.39 and 52w-high distance 0.00%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.00 with horizon vol 5.24%",
"Recent return +0.74% and SPY beta 0.10",
"Quality evidence score 0.387"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 3.44 and 21s active +8.35%",
"Quality evidence score 0.119 and prior active -21.49%",
"SPY corr 0.09"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active +12.49% and volume z 2.95",
"Quality evidence score 0.110 and prior active -14.82%",
"Horizon vol 33.76%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -10.63% after prior active +6.63%",
"Horizon vol 47.49% and 52w-high distance -43.43%",
"Quality score 0.699 with beta 2.51"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -15.65% and recent active -11.35%",
"Quality score 0.330 with drawdown -21.42%",
"Volume z -0.72"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -23.87% and recent active -14.66%",
"52w-high distance -53.28% and quality score 0.313",
"Horizon vol 39.48%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOFTWARE",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is only modestly below its 52-week high while equal-weight has outperformed cap-weight, oil is strong, and hot CPI/PPI plus a scheduled FOMC meeting raise rate-path risk. High-beta Asia/tech names show large prior-active gains then sharp recent drawdowns with elevated vol, so the month is mixed continuation versus mean-reversion rather than a clean trend.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"BROAD_AI_TECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-ranked names are quality pullbacks in Taiwan and US tech/AI after strong prior-active trends, but none clear a high-confidence one-month edge versus SPY given 25–55% vols, betas well above 1, and a dense FOMC/CPI calendar. Shock-reversal commodities and crypto remain too two-sided; defensive volume spikes in munis and utilities are not enough to beat SPY. Prefer the benchmark unless a labeled overreaction also has p_beat at least 55.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is only modestly below its 52-week high while equal-weight has outperformed cap-weight, oil is strong, and hot CPI/PPI plus a scheduled FOMC meeting raise rate-path risk. High-beta Asia/tech names show large prior-active gains then sharp recent drawdowns with elevated vol, so the month is mixed continuation versus mean-reversion rather than a clean trend.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17035,
"latency_seconds": 35.013630658970214,
"output_tokens": 2668,
"reasoning_tokens": 465,
"total_tokens": 20168
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 4 Argon google-gemini-4-argon | Technology Sector (XLK)35%Broad AI Technology (AIQ)35%Taiwan Equities (EWT)30% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%South Korea Equities (EWY)35%Taiwan Equities (EWT)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-23 | 202.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-23 | 91.29 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-23 | 27.87 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-23 | 29.12 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-23 | 112.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-23 | 149.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-23 | 45.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-23 | 42.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-23 | 62.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-23 | 20.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-23 | 60.69 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-23 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-23 | 49.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-23 | 105.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-23 | 113.10 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-23 | 88.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-23 | 39.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-23 | 169.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-23 | 106.12 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-23 | 69.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-23 | 91.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-23 | 56.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-23 | 69.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-23 | 216.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-23 | 54.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-23 | 103.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-23 | 86.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-23 | 55.90 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-23 | 75.15 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-23 | 179.28 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-23 | 77.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-23 | 46.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-23 | 164.62 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-23 | 91.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-23 | 47.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-23 | 103.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-23 | 94.10 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-23 | 58.42 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-23 | 81.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-23 | 51.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-23 | 96.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-23 | 75.26 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-23 | 103.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-23 | 704.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-23 | 42.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-23 | 72.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-23 | 759.97 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-23 | 527.20 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-23 | 91.63 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-23 | 48.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-23 | 110.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-23 | 41.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-23 | 63.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-23 | 151.26 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-23 | 104.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-23 | 183.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-23 | 373.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-23 | 106.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-23 | 47.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-23 | 95.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-23 | 35.27 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-23 | 28.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-23 | 119.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-23 | 257.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-23 | 75.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-23 | 72.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-23 | 289.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-23 | 275.75 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-23 | 213.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-23 | 42.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | b3f92ae627ac...066e24f5 |
| manifest.yaml | 89a62239a868...3eaf7012 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 227a3455ce6f...400d4adf |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | f5d98815bf1f...e833d387 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 84af93094e7c...5f2e64d8 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | efb8735abf19...b4d28405 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | b339078fdad2...c2ff053e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | cd1632b31255...461ac300 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |