Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Using the latest available interim close, Gemini 3.1 Pro in CB-2026-10-10-1M is ahead of the S&P 500 by +7.62 percentage points, while Grok 4.5 in CB-2026-10-27-1M is at -6.41 percentage points.
Live alpha is interim model return minus interim S&P 500 return. It is provisional until the round reaches its official score date.
11 public audit hashes are available.
6 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-11-19 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-20261019-1M
30,497 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-19-1M
- Decision date: 2026-10-19
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-19T05:33:04Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-19T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-10-19
- Exit date: 2026-11-19
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench factual briefing — October 19, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Inflation and monetary policy
- BLS, October 14 release: September CPI increased 0.6% seasonally adjusted and 3.7% over twelve months. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. Food prices were unchanged monthly; energy rose 5.2%.
- BLS, October 15 release: September final-demand PPI increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, increases were 0.5% and 5.0%, respectively. These producer and consumer price measures have different coverage.
- Federal Reserve, September 16 decision: the federal funds target range increased 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%; the vote was unanimous.
## Activity and employment
- BLS, October 2 release: September nonfarm payroll employment rose 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. These survey estimates are subject to revision.
- Census Bureau, October 15 release: September retail and food-service sales increased 0.8% monthly, with a reported uncertainty interval of ±0.4 percentage points, and 6.3% annually, ±0.5 points. Sales are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation. August monthly growth was revised from 1.1% to 1.3%.
- BEA, September 30 third estimate: second-quarter real GDP increased at a 2.2% annual rate. Revised first-quarter growth was 2.5%.
## Market observations
- Associated Press reported October 16 closes of 7,659.44 for the S&P 500, 52,002.41 for the Dow, 26,140.03 for the Nasdaq Composite, and 2,721.37 for the Russell 2000. Daily changes were −1.1%, −0.3%, −2.1%, and −1.7%, respectively. These are index observations, not ETF scoring prices.
- AP reported that slightly more than half of S&P 500 constituents declined October 16; 68 of 75 technology constituents fell. European and Asian markets closed higher.
- AP reported the ten-year Treasury yield at 5.09% October 16 versus 5.10% late Thursday. Treasury yields are distinct from total returns on bond funds.
## Energy and international policy
- EIA's October 15 weekly report, covering the week ending October 9, reported refinery inputs of 16.6 million barrels daily and 93.5% utilization. Crude imports averaged 6.0 million barrels daily, down 791,000 from the prior week, while the four-week import average was 0.9% above a year earlier.
- ECB, September 10 decision effective September 16: deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates increased to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%. Its staff forecast 2026 growth of 0.9% and inflation of 3.0%; these are forecasts, not realized outcomes. The ECB described substantial uncertainty and upside inflation/downside growth risks.
## Scheduled information inside the holding windows
- BLS schedules state employment for October 20 and usual weekly earnings for October 21, both at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. These fall before the weekly October 26 exit.
- The October 27–28 FOMC meeting falls after the weekly exit and within the monthly window.
- BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BLS schedules the Employment Cost Index for October 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, October employment for November 6 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and October CPI for November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. These fall within the monthly November 19 exit. Scheduled releases are not forecasts and remain subject to change.
The mechanical context ends at the October 16 close; prospective scoring starts at the October 19 close, with no October 19 close known in this briefing. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing contains no option ranking, allocation recommendation, or mapping of facts to expected returns.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-19-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-19-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-19'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-19T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-5f7392bbcea6
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-19T05:30:35.636579+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-4-argon
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-10-19'
exit_date: '2026-11-19'
created_at: '2026-10-19T05:30:35.636579+00:00'
notes: Fresh direct public-source research on October 19, 2026; mechanical context through October 16 close. Prospective October 19 close entry. Six-model frozen V3 roster; no participant tools or search.# CapitalBench factual briefing — October 19, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Inflation and monetary policy
- BLS, October 14 release: September CPI increased 0.6% seasonally adjusted and 3.7% over twelve months. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. Food prices were unchanged monthly; energy rose 5.2%.
- BLS, October 15 release: September final-demand PPI increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, increases were 0.5% and 5.0%, respectively. These producer and consumer price measures have different coverage.
- Federal Reserve, September 16 decision: the federal funds target range increased 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%; the vote was unanimous.
## Activity and employment
- BLS, October 2 release: September nonfarm payroll employment rose 29,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. These survey estimates are subject to revision.
- Census Bureau, October 15 release: September retail and food-service sales increased 0.8% monthly, with a reported uncertainty interval of ±0.4 percentage points, and 6.3% annually, ±0.5 points. Sales are seasonally adjusted but not adjusted for inflation. August monthly growth was revised from 1.1% to 1.3%.
- BEA, September 30 third estimate: second-quarter real GDP increased at a 2.2% annual rate. Revised first-quarter growth was 2.5%.
## Market observations
- Associated Press reported October 16 closes of 7,659.44 for the S&P 500, 52,002.41 for the Dow, 26,140.03 for the Nasdaq Composite, and 2,721.37 for the Russell 2000. Daily changes were −1.1%, −0.3%, −2.1%, and −1.7%, respectively. These are index observations, not ETF scoring prices.
- AP reported that slightly more than half of S&P 500 constituents declined October 16; 68 of 75 technology constituents fell. European and Asian markets closed higher.
- AP reported the ten-year Treasury yield at 5.09% October 16 versus 5.10% late Thursday. Treasury yields are distinct from total returns on bond funds.
## Energy and international policy
- EIA's October 15 weekly report, covering the week ending October 9, reported refinery inputs of 16.6 million barrels daily and 93.5% utilization. Crude imports averaged 6.0 million barrels daily, down 791,000 from the prior week, while the four-week import average was 0.9% above a year earlier.
- ECB, September 10 decision effective September 16: deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates increased to 2.50%, 2.65%, and 2.90%. Its staff forecast 2026 growth of 0.9% and inflation of 3.0%; these are forecasts, not realized outcomes. The ECB described substantial uncertainty and upside inflation/downside growth risks.
## Scheduled information inside the holding windows
- BLS schedules state employment for October 20 and usual weekly earnings for October 21, both at 10:00 a.m. Eastern. These fall before the weekly October 26 exit.
- The October 27–28 FOMC meeting falls after the weekly exit and within the monthly window.
- BEA schedules advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays for October 29 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. BLS schedules the Employment Cost Index for October 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, October employment for November 6 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, and October CPI for November 10 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. These fall within the monthly November 19 exit. Scheduled releases are not forecasts and remain subject to change.
The mechanical context ends at the October 16 close; prospective scoring starts at the October 19 close, with no October 19 close known in this briefing. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing contains no option ranking, allocation recommendation, or mapping of facts to expected returns.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-19-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-19-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-19-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-4-argon
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-19-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-19-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-19-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Favor high-quality prior leaders that suffered sharp, low-volume positioning pullbacks: Taiwan, South Korea, and broad AI tech combine strong 105-session relative trends, deep one-week active losses, and top-quartile quality scores, with Asian markets already stabilizing on Oct 16. Edges are modest given the hawkish rate backdrop, so probabilities sit barely above the eligibility threshold; oil's continuation is well supported but too volatile for a reversal slot, while silver and solar show persistent prior weakness rather than transient overreaction.
Macro backdrop is stagflationary: CPI 3.7% with energy up 5.2%, PPI 6.3%, Fed hiked in September to 3.75-4.00%, ten-year at 5.09%, payrolls only +29k, and an FOMC plus CPI and payroll prints inside the window. Tech led a sharp one-week drawdown (68 of 75 tech constituents fell, Nasdaq -2.1% on Oct 16) while defensives, value and energy held up. Cross-sectional dispersion is high and only 30% of assets are positive over 21 sessions. Prior-trend leaders (Taiwan, Korea, cyber, AI, semis) took sharp hits that look like positioning unwinds rather than fundamental breaks, but the rate backdrop limits how aggressively to fade them.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oct 27-28 FOMC or Nov 10 CPI confirms further tightening, extending the tech and high-beta drawdown rather than reversing it",
"Korea and Taiwan carry 2-3x SPY beta and 30-56% vol, so a continued semiconductor unwind could produce double-digit underperformance",
"Energy-driven inflation (CPI energy +5.2%, PPI 6.3%) keeps ten-year yields above 5%, compressing growth multiples through the exit",
"Weak payrolls (+29k) raise stagflation risk that hurts export-oriented Asian equities and AI capex sentiment"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return +25.28% with recent one-week active -4.29% and only -9.95% from 52w high",
"Highest quality evidence score on slate at 0.736; Asian markets closed higher Oct 16 while US tech sold off"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"One-week return -15.12% and active -17.85% after prior 105-session active +12.07%, drawdown -21.90%",
"Horizon vol 56% and beta 2.9 make this the most extreme shock on the slate; quality score 0.711 with recent pullback rank 1.000"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active +11.32%, recent active -3.98%, drawdown -8.23%, 11.58% below 52w high",
"Quality score 0.727 with volume z -0.56 indicating no capitulation volume; 68 of 75 tech constituents fell Oct 16"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active +45.39%, the highest in universe, with one-week -10.16% equal to the full drawdown",
"Volume z +0.98 on the pullback; quality score 0.711"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.14% after prior active +6.57%, drawdown -14.88% equals distance from 52w high",
"Quality score 0.701; rising yields at 5.09% ten-year weigh on financing-sensitive biotech"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"One-week +9.15%, prior active +26.18%, 0.06% from 52w high; CPI energy +5.2% in September",
"Refinery utilization 93.5% and crude imports down 791k bpd; horizon vol 48.8% and negative SPY beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.02% with vol 11.15% and drawdown -8.30%; Russell 2000 fell 1.7% Oct 16",
"Fed hiked and ten-year 5.09% pressure small-cap financing; payrolls +29k"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -1.97% over 5 sessions, -2.03% from 52w high, vol 11.10%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.62% after prior active -12.94%, drawdown -18.76%, 23.92% below 52w high",
"Quality score 0.387; falling volume z -0.77 and gold -4.10% over 21 sessions"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active +10.50% but prior active -15.10% and one-week -3.93%; volume z +2.36",
"Quality score 0.112, lowest on slate"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +5.09, prior active -10.28%, vol 5.17%",
"Fed hiked in September and CPI 3.7% with PPI 6.3% keep rate pressure on duration; FOMC Oct 27-28 in window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +5.91, prior active -9.84%, vol 5.76%",
"Ten-year yield 5.09% and hawkish Fed limit duration upside"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active +6.25% but prior active -9.12%, 29.30% below 52w high, vol 37.10%",
"Quality score 0.247; Fed tightening and 5.09% ten-year weigh on liquidity-sensitive assets"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -23.57% and recent active -10.06%, drawdown -22.13%, 43.39% below 52w high",
"Prior active rank 0.015 and shallow drawdown rank 0.000; higher rates hurt project financing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -27.57% and recent active -12.98%, 51.22% below 52w high, vol 39.48%",
"Gold -4.10% over 21 sessions, dollar +1.90%, Fed hiking against 3.7% CPI pressures precious metals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"BRAZIL",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BROAD_AI_TECH": 30,
"SOUTH_KOREA": 35,
"TAIWAN": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"BROAD_AI_TECH"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: CPI 3.7% with energy up 5.2%, PPI 6.3%, Fed hiked in September to 3.75-4.00%, ten-year at 5.09%, payrolls only +29k, and an FOMC plus CPI and payroll prints inside the window. Tech led a sharp one-week drawdown (68 of 75 tech constituents fell, Nasdaq -2.1% on Oct 16) while defensives, value and energy held up. Cross-sectional dispersion is high and only 30% of assets are positive over 21 sessions. Prior-trend leaders (Taiwan, Korea, cyber, AI, semis) took sharp hits that look like positioning unwinds rather than fundamental breaks, but the rate backdrop limits how aggressively to fade them.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"BROAD_AI_TECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Favor high-quality prior leaders that suffered sharp, low-volume positioning pullbacks: Taiwan, South Korea, and broad AI tech combine strong 105-session relative trends, deep one-week active losses, and top-quartile quality scores, with Asian markets already stabilizing on Oct 16. Edges are modest given the hawkish rate backdrop, so probabilities sit barely above the eligibility threshold; oil's continuation is well supported but too volatile for a reversal slot, while silver and solar show persistent prior weakness rather than transient overreaction.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: CPI 3.7% with energy up 5.2%, PPI 6.3%, Fed hiked in September to 3.75-4.00%, ten-year at 5.09%, payrolls only +29k, and an FOMC plus CPI and payroll prints inside the window. Tech led a sharp one-week drawdown (68 of 75 tech constituents fell, Nasdaq -2.1% on Oct 16) while defensives, value and energy held up. Cross-sectional dispersion is high and only 30% of assets are positive over 21 sessions. Prior-trend leaders (Taiwan, Korea, cyber, AI, semis) took sharp hits that look like positioning unwinds rather than fundamental breaks, but the rate backdrop limits how aggressively to fade them.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27483,
"latency_seconds": 46.187101703020744,
"output_tokens": 4149,
"total_tokens": 31632
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
No candidate clears a credible 55% edge given hawkish inflation data, an FOMC meeting in-window, and 5%+ yields; Taiwan is the best quality pullback but conviction is insufficient, so the portfolio defaults to SPY.
Hot inflation (CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3%), a hiking Fed with the FOMC on Oct 27-28, a 10y yield near 5.09%, and weak payrolls (+29k) create a stagflationary backdrop. Tech sold off sharply (68 of 75 tech names fell Oct 16) while equal-weight, defensives and energy outperformed. Dispersion is high, but macro headwinds argue against aggressive high-beta reversal bets.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further Fed hike at Oct 27-28 FOMC driving tech/high-beta lower",
"October CPI on Nov 10 surprising hot",
"Sharp tech rebound making SPY default lag reversal names",
"Oil spike feeding inflation and rate repricing"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +25.28% vs recent -4.29%",
"Highest quality score in the slate, 0.736"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.02%; quality 0.713",
"Rates near 5.09% weigh on small caps"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +11.32%, recent -3.98%",
"Tech-led selloff with yields above 5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +45.39%; 5d return -10.16%",
"Volume z 0.98 suggests distribution"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.91",
"Hot PPI pressures duration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.09",
"Beta 0.11"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.14%, prior +6.57%",
"High rates hurt financing-sensitive biotech"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5d +9.15%, energy CPI +5.2%",
"Vol 48.83%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-15.12% in 5d, vol 56%",
"Beta 2.9 to SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +6.25%, prior -9.12%",
"29% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -12.94%, recent -9.62%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.112, recent active +10.5% after prior -15.1%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -23.57%, 43% below high",
"High rates"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -27.57%, 51% below high",
"Rising real yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"BRAZIL",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Hot inflation (CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3%), a hiking Fed with the FOMC on Oct 27-28, a 10y yield near 5.09%, and weak payrolls (+29k) create a stagflationary backdrop. Tech sold off sharply (68 of 75 tech names fell Oct 16) while equal-weight, defensives and energy outperformed. Dispersion is high, but macro headwinds argue against aggressive high-beta reversal bets.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SP500"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No candidate clears a credible 55% edge given hawkish inflation data, an FOMC meeting in-window, and 5%+ yields; Taiwan is the best quality pullback but conviction is insufficient, so the portfolio defaults to SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Hot inflation (CPI 3.7%, PPI 6.3%), a hiking Fed with the FOMC on Oct 27-28, a 10y yield near 5.09%, and weak payrolls (+29k) create a stagflationary backdrop. Tech sold off sharply (68 of 75 tech names fell Oct 16) while equal-weight, defensives and energy outperformed. Dispersion is high, but macro headwinds argue against aggressive high-beta reversal bets.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27483,
"latency_seconds": 25.785942190908827,
"output_tokens": 3086,
"total_tokens": 30569
}
}google-gemini-4-argon
The top three ranked candidates—TAIWAN, CYBERSECURITY, and BROAD_AI_TECH—possess the highest quality evidence scores on the slate (0.736, 0.711, and 0.727), reflecting dominant medium-term relative strength (+25.28%, +45.39%, and +11.32% prior active returns) paired with sharp 5-day pullbacks (-7.04%, -10.16%, and -6.88%) driven by a broad macro rate/tech rotation rather than fundamental deterioration. Each meets the eligibility criteria for an overreaction reversal with >55% probability of beating SPY over the one-month scoring window. Lower-quality shock losers (SILVER, SOLAR, METALS_MINING) exhibit multi-month structural deterioration exacerbated by high interest rates and are ranked at the bottom.
Recent data shows firm inflation (September CPI +0.6% m/m, PPI +1.3% m/m) driven heavily by a 5.2% monthly surge in energy prices, alongside a 10-year Treasury yield around 5.09% and a recent Fed rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%. This rate pressure triggered a sharp factor rotation out of technology and growth (68 of 75 S&P tech constituents fell on Oct 16; RSP beat SPY by 2.46% over 5 days) into energy and defensive value. However, secular leaders with dominant medium-term relative strength (Taiwan, Cybersecurity, Broad AI Tech) have suffered acute short-term pullbacks without company-specific fundamental deterioration, creating high-quality reversal setups ahead of key macro releases.
{
"confidence": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hotter-than-expected inflation or hawkish policy signals from the October 27-28 FOMC meeting and November 10 CPI release could push the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.10%, extending the valuation compression in technology and semiconductor equities.",
"Continued surging energy prices (USO +9.15% over 5 days, September CPI energy +5.2%) could reinforce stagflationary pressures and sustain factor rotation out of growth/tech into energy and defensive sectors.",
"Labor market softening (September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000) could broaden into wider economic weakness in the November 6 employment report and October 29 Q3 GDP release, hurting high-beta cyclical and international equity exposures."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score in the slate at 0.736, supported by a 0.970 prior active rank (+25.28% prior active return).",
"Recent 5-day return of -7.04% (-4.29% active over 21 days) reflects broad tech selloff rather than fundamental deterioration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Top prior active return in the entire universe at +45.39% (1.000 prior active rank) and high quality score of 0.711.",
"Sharp 5-day drop of -10.16% on elevated volume (z-score 0.98) represents an acute pullback within a dominant uptrend."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Second-highest quality score on the slate (0.727) with a +11.32% prior active return and manageable 63-day max drawdown of -8.23%.",
"Fell -6.88% over 5 days alongside the broad technology sector decline (68 of 75 S&P tech stocks fell Oct 16) on low volume (z-score -0.56)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong recent (+9.15% 5-day) and prior (+26.18% active) returns are supported by September CPI energy rising 5.2% m/m.",
"EIA reported high refinery utilization at 93.5% and crude imports down 791,000 barrels daily from the prior week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High quality score of 0.713 with low 63-day volatility (11.15%) and a 0.821 recent pullback rank (-4.02% 21-day active return).",
"Resilient 5-day performance (-1.01% vs SPY -1.97%) aligns with broader market rotation toward value and equal-weight equities."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Solid quality score of 0.701 with positive prior active return (+6.57%) and a deep recent active pullback of -9.14%.",
"High rate environment (10-year yield at 5.09%) limits upside conviction for long-duration biotech despite oversold technicals."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option with -1.97% 5-day return and +0.33% 21-day return.",
"Low 63-day volatility of 11.10% and shallow max drawdown of -3.06% near 52-week highs (-2.03% distance)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extreme recent drawdown (-15.12% over 5 days, -17.85% 21-day active) following a strong +12.07% prior active trend (0.711 quality score).",
"Exceptionally high 63-day volatility (56.11%) and SPY beta (2.90) create severe tail risk if global tech weakness persists."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extreme volume dislocation (z-score 5.91) with a positive 5-day return of +0.81% and low volatility (5.76%).",
"Weak prior active return (-9.84%) and elevated inflation/rates (CPI +0.6% m/m, 10-year yield at 5.09%) cap fixed-income upside."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Massive volume surge (z-score 5.09) accompanied by a +1.26% 5-day gain and very low volatility (5.17%).",
"Poor prior relative trend (-10.28% active) and hawkish monetary policy backdrop limit medium-term total return potential."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong 21-day active return (+10.50%) on heavy volume (z-score 2.36), but 5-day return already reversed to -3.93%.",
"Lowest quality score on the slate (0.112) driven by a weak -15.10% prior active return."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-day active return of +6.25% contrasts with a negative prior active trend (-9.12%) and a -29.30% distance from 52-week highs.",
"Low quality score (0.247), high volatility (37.10%), and high beta (1.78) without fundamental catalyst support in the briefing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
" persistent weakness across both recent (-9.62% 21-day active) and prior (-12.94% active) windows, yielding a low 0.387 quality score.",
"High volatility (36.08%) and deep drawdown (-18.76%) with subdued volume (z-score -0.77)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Severe structural downtrend with -23.57% prior active return, -10.06% recent active return, and -43.39% distance from 52-week high.",
"High interest rates (Fed funds 3.75%-4.00%, 10-year yield 5.09%) maintain fundamental pressure on rate-sensitive clean energy financing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Worst prior active rank in the universe (0.000, -27.57% prior active return) combined with -12.98% recent active return and -51.22% distance from 52w high.",
"Rising real and nominal yields (10y yield 5.09%) and a firmer US dollar (+1.90% 21-day UUP return) create ongoing macro headwinds."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"BRAZIL",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BROAD_AI_TECH": 30,
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"TAIWAN": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"BROAD_AI_TECH"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Recent data shows firm inflation (September CPI +0.6% m/m, PPI +1.3% m/m) driven heavily by a 5.2% monthly surge in energy prices, alongside a 10-year Treasury yield around 5.09% and a recent Fed rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%. This rate pressure triggered a sharp factor rotation out of technology and growth (68 of 75 S&P tech constituents fell on Oct 16; RSP beat SPY by 2.46% over 5 days) into energy and defensive value. However, secular leaders with dominant medium-term relative strength (Taiwan, Cybersecurity, Broad AI Tech) have suffered acute short-term pullbacks without company-specific fundamental deterioration, creating high-quality reversal setups ahead of key macro releases.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"BROAD_AI_TECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-4-argon",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The top three ranked candidates—TAIWAN, CYBERSECURITY, and BROAD_AI_TECH—possess the highest quality evidence scores on the slate (0.736, 0.711, and 0.727), reflecting dominant medium-term relative strength (+25.28%, +45.39%, and +11.32% prior active returns) paired with sharp 5-day pullbacks (-7.04%, -10.16%, and -6.88%) driven by a broad macro rate/tech rotation rather than fundamental deterioration. Each meets the eligibility criteria for an overreaction reversal with >55% probability of beating SPY over the one-month scoring window. Lower-quality shock losers (SILVER, SOLAR, METALS_MINING) exhibit multi-month structural deterioration exacerbated by high interest rates and are ranked at the bottom.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Recent data shows firm inflation (September CPI +0.6% m/m, PPI +1.3% m/m) driven heavily by a 5.2% monthly surge in energy prices, alongside a 10-year Treasury yield around 5.09% and a recent Fed rate hike to 3.75%-4.00%. This rate pressure triggered a sharp factor rotation out of technology and growth (68 of 75 S&P tech constituents fell on Oct 16; RSP beat SPY by 2.46% over 5 days) into energy and defensive value. However, secular leaders with dominant medium-term relative strength (Taiwan, Cybersecurity, Broad AI Tech) have suffered acute short-term pullbacks without company-specific fundamental deterioration, creating high-quality reversal setups ahead of key macro releases.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18654,
"latency_seconds": 44.447435649926774,
"output_tokens": 4258,
"total_tokens": 22912
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Oil has the strongest independent support, but its classification is continuation rather than overreaction. Taiwan narrowly clears the reversal eligibility threshold because its pullback interrupts substantial prior strength with less extreme risk than South Korea. Cybersecurity and other potential rebounds lack enough independent confirmation to clear that threshold. Accordingly, the deterministic rule retains substantial benchmark exposure rather than treating every deep decline as a buying opportunity.
Inflation acceleration, recent monetary tightening and weak payroll growth create an unfavorable mix for equity valuations and financing-sensitive businesses. Energy has independent inflation support, while selected former leaders offer tentative reversal opportunities. Cross-sectional return spreads are wide, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing. The October FOMC meeting and subsequent growth, employment and inflation releases can materially change leadership before November 19. Five-session returns are distinguished from monthly active returns; the quality scores are technical composites, not evidence of business quality.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The October FOMC decision or November CPI release could reinforce tightening expectations and extend growth-stock and Taiwan losses.",
"Weak employment could develop into a broader demand slowdown, hurting exporters, small companies and oil simultaneously.",
"Oil's recent surge and near-high price could reverse if energy inflation subsides; weekly import data do not establish a durable supply shortage.",
"Technical quality scores contain no earnings, balance-sheet or valuation confirmation, so apparent overreactions may reflect information absent from the briefing.",
"The October 19 entry close is unknown; moves before that close could materially reduce the reversal opportunities visible on October 16."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"September CPI energy increased 5.2%, providing independent support beyond oil's recent price strength.",
"Refinery utilization was 93.5%; weekly crude imports declined 791,000 barrels daily, although four-week imports remained above a year earlier.",
"The 9.15% five-session gain leaves substantial reversal risk given 48.83% volatility and proximity to the 52-week high."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -17,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 21,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly active return of -4.29% follows prior-window outperformance of 25.28%, making this a pullback rather than persistent relative weakness.",
"The technical quality score is 0.736, with lower volatility and a shallower drawdown than South Korea.",
"October 16 weakness was concentrated in US technology while Asian markets closed higher; no Taiwan-specific deterioration is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"A 10.16% five-session decline contrasts with 45.39% prior-window active performance and only -3.12% monthly active return.",
"Volume z-score of 0.98 suggests meaningful selling, but does not establish capitulation.",
"Broad technology weakness supports a possible common-factor overshoot; tightening and 34.49% volatility limit confidence."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly active losses of 17.85% follow prior active gains of 12.07%, providing a plausible reversal setup.",
"The 56.11% volatility, 2.90 beta and 21.90% drawdown make the apparent discount unusually risky.",
"Volume z-score is -0.50, so the extreme decline lacks a volume-based capitulation confirmation or a supplied country-specific recovery catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -21,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 24,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly active return of -9.14% reverses prior active strength of 6.57%.",
"Technical quality is 0.701, but the fund is at its 63-session drawdown low of -14.88%.",
"Recent Fed tightening is a financing headwind, and no clinical or transaction catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score of 0.713 and volatility of 11.15% offer a less volatile pullback candidate.",
"Prior active return was nevertheless negative at -1.88%, followed by -4.02% monthly active performance.",
"Equal-weight SPY outperformed recently, but 29,000 payroll growth and higher policy rates weaken the small-company recovery case."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 5.91 is unusual, but supplies no directional flow or valuation information.",
"Volatility of 5.76% and SPY beta of 0.16 support a defensive role.",
"Weak payroll growth supports duration, while elevated CPI and PPI and recent Fed tightening oppose it."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 5.09 does not establish forced selling or a recoverable discount.",
"The five-session return was positive at 1.26%, while monthly active return was -0.84%.",
"Low volatility of 5.17% limits standalone risk, but the inflation and tightening backdrop challenges duration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY has exactly zero excess return relative to itself.",
"Its five-session loss was 1.97%, but its 21-session absolute return remained positive at 0.33%.",
"Only 30.43% of assets had positive 21-session returns, suggesting a difficult broad opportunity set."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 11.32% and monthly active pullback of 3.98% produce a technical quality score of 0.727.",
"SPY correlation of 0.85 and beta of 1.94 leave considerable exposure to further growth-stock repricing.",
"The briefing supplies no AI-specific fundamental catalyst to offset higher rates and broad technology selling."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly active strength of 6.25% follows prior active weakness of -9.12%.",
"Volatility is 37.10%, beta is 1.78 and the quality score is only 0.247.",
"No digital-asset catalyst is supplied; recent monetary tightening is unfavorable for a liquidity-sensitive exposure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly active performance of 10.50% contrasts with -15.10% prior active performance and a recent five-session decline.",
"Volume z-score of 2.36 confirms unusual activity but not its cause or durability.",
"The quality score is 0.112, and no Brazil-specific policy or earnings support is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly active losses of 12.98% extend prior active losses of 27.57%, rather than interrupting a strong trend.",
"The 51.22% distance below the annual high creates rebound potential but is not valuation evidence.",
"Inflation provides a possible hedge rationale, while tightening and 39.48% volatility make an overreaction diagnosis unreliable."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly active losses of 9.62% follow prior active losses of 12.94%, weakening a temporary-dislocation interpretation.",
"Volatility is 36.08% and the drawdown is 18.76%, with below-normal volume.",
"Producer-price inflation may support commodity revenues but also costs; weak hiring and ECB downside-growth risks provide no clear demand catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly active losses of 10.06% extend prior active losses of 23.57%.",
"The 22.13% drawdown and 0.318 quality score offer little confirmation that selling is merely temporary.",
"Higher policy rates and a 5.09% ten-year Treasury yield challenge financing-sensitive exposure; no offsetting solar-specific catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"BRAZIL",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 65,
"TAIWAN": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Inflation acceleration, recent monetary tightening and weak payroll growth create an unfavorable mix for equity valuations and financing-sensitive businesses. Energy has independent inflation support, while selected former leaders offer tentative reversal opportunities. Cross-sectional return spreads are wide, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing. The October FOMC meeting and subsequent growth, employment and inflation releases can materially change leadership before November 19. Five-session returns are distinguished from monthly active returns; the quality scores are technical composites, not evidence of business quality.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Oil has the strongest independent support, but its classification is continuation rather than overreaction. Taiwan narrowly clears the reversal eligibility threshold because its pullback interrupts substantial prior strength with less extreme risk than South Korea. Cybersecurity and other potential rebounds lack enough independent confirmation to clear that threshold. Accordingly, the deterministic rule retains substantial benchmark exposure rather than treating every deep decline as a buying opportunity.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Inflation acceleration, recent monetary tightening and weak payroll growth create an unfavorable mix for equity valuations and financing-sensitive businesses. Energy has independent inflation support, while selected former leaders offer tentative reversal opportunities. Cross-sectional return spreads are wide, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing. The October FOMC meeting and subsequent growth, employment and inflation releases can materially change leadership before November 19. Five-session returns are distinguished from monthly active returns; the quality scores are technical composites, not evidence of business quality.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15583,
"latency_seconds": 51.80538257397711,
"output_tokens": 3594,
"reasoning_tokens": 176,
"total_tokens": 19177
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Top ranks emphasize quality pullbacks and shock names with independent prior strength and overreaction labels that clear the 55% hurdle; high vol EM/commodity losers and pure short-continuation names rank lower. Prefer SPY diagnostically given macro data risk and limited clean edges, but ranked overreaction candidates still supply the deterministic eligibility set.
Elevated CPI/PPI and recent Fed hike create rate pressure; tech/growth sold off hard while equal-weight and defensives held up; high cross-sectional dispersion and several quality pullbacks favor selective reversal over broad continuation into the one-month window with FOMC and CPI still ahead.
{
"confidence": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hotter-than-expected October CPI or hawkish FOMC path extends growth/tech de-rating",
"High-beta reversal candidates (Taiwan/AI/biotech) can gap lower on risk-off or USD strength",
"Oil continuation fades if inventory/demand data reverse recent strength",
"Volume-dislocation bond bids reverse if yields re-spike toward 5%+"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score 0.736 with strong prior active rank 0.970 and deep recent pullback",
"Recent active -4.29% after prior +25.28% medium-strength trend",
"Distance to 52w high only -9.95% with semiconductor linkage but quality pullback profile"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.701 with prior active rank 0.851 and extreme recent pullback rank 0.940",
"Recent return -6.15% / active -9.14% after prior +6.57%",
"Lower beta 1.08 and volume z 0.48 support temporary dislocation rather than pure deterioration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence 0.727 with prior active 0.896 and pullback rank 0.806",
"Recent -6.88% active -3.98% after prior +11.32%",
"Horizon vol 26% and max DD -8.23% milder than pure shock names"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.711 and top prior active rank 1.000 with recent pullback rank 0.716",
"Recent -10.16% after extreme prior active +45.39%",
"Volume z 0.98 indicates active trading into the pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.713 with solid prior and strong recent pullback ranks",
"Low horizon vol 11.15% and beta 0.91 versus SPY",
"Recent only -1.01% after mild prior weakness; RSP outperformance supports value/equal-weight tilt"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.711 driven by prior active rank 0.910 and max pullback rank 1.000",
"Shock recent -15.12% active -17.85% after prior +12.07%",
"Extreme vol 56% and beta 2.90 raise path risk despite overreaction case"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +9.15% and prior active +26.18% with energy cluster strength",
"Negative SPY corr -0.39 offers diversifier properties",
"Near 52w high and high vol 48.83% limit edge reliability"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.91 extreme dislocation with low vol 5.76%",
"Recent +0.81% while rates volatile after CPI/PPI prints",
"Quality 0.509 middling; duration still exposed to further hikes"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.09 and low horizon vol 5.17%",
"Recent +1.26% defensive bid",
"Quality 0.431 and rate sensitivity after 3.7% CPI limit upside vs SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Short-window active +6.25% but quality only 0.247",
"High vol 37.1% and -29.3% from 52w high",
"Mixed prior -9.12% active weakens continuation case"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active +10.50% short continuation but quality score very low 0.112",
"Volume z 2.36 elevated",
"Prior active -15.10% and commodity/EM sensitivity raise fade risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality only 0.387 despite deep pullback rank 0.955",
"Recent -5.11% active -9.62% after prior -12.94%",
"High vol and weak prior trend suggest more than pure overreaction"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.318 with prior active rank near bottom 0.015",
"Recent -4.34% active -10.06% after prior -23.57%",
"Deep 52w drawdown -43.39% and high beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.305 and prior active rank 0.000",
"Recent -5.97% active -12.98% after prior -27.57%",
"Extreme distance to high -51.22% and elevated vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark recent -1.97% with low horizon vol 11.10% and shallow DD -3.06%",
"Equal-weight RSP outperformed recently indicating concentration drag",
"Upcoming FOMC/CPI keep broad equity path uncertain"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"BRAZIL",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"BROAD_AI_TECH": 30,
"TAIWAN": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"BIOTECH",
"BROAD_AI_TECH"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Elevated CPI/PPI and recent Fed hike create rate pressure; tech/growth sold off hard while equal-weight and defensives held up; high cross-sectional dispersion and several quality pullbacks favor selective reversal over broad continuation into the one-month window with FOMC and CPI still ahead.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"BIOTECH",
"BROAD_AI_TECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks emphasize quality pullbacks and shock names with independent prior strength and overreaction labels that clear the 55% hurdle; high vol EM/commodity losers and pure short-continuation names rank lower. Prefer SPY diagnostically given macro data risk and limited clean edges, but ranked overreaction candidates still supply the deterministic eligibility set.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Elevated CPI/PPI and recent Fed hike create rate pressure; tech/growth sold off hard while equal-weight and defensives held up; high cross-sectional dispersion and several quality pullbacks favor selective reversal over broad continuation into the one-month window with FOMC and CPI still ahead.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16822,
"latency_seconds": 41.631670210976154,
"output_tokens": 3276,
"reasoning_tokens": 66,
"total_tokens": 20164
}
}xai-grok-4-6
One-month window includes FOMC, GDP, ECI, jobs, and CPI after a hot inflation print, so high-beta shock names have wide 80% ranges versus SPY. Highest-quality pullbacks (Taiwan, biotech, small value) rank first, but none clear a high-confidence beat-SPY bar given vol and policy risk; oil continuation is real but already extended.
SPY is only modestly off highs while a minority of assets are positive over 21 sessions; hot CPI/PPI, 5.09% 10y, and an in-window FOMC/GDP/CPI calendar favor mixed rather than clean continuation. Equal-weight beat cap-weight recently, oil is strong, and several high-beta Asia/tech names show sharp pullbacks after prior strength.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October 27-28 FOMC and November 10 CPI can reprice duration and growth stocks inside the scoring window.",
"South Korea/Taiwan/AI betas of 1.8-2.9 can lag SPY if mega-cap tech weakness continues.",
"Oil at the 52-week high can reverse if weekly EIA tightness fades.",
"Municipal and MBS volume spikes may not persist if 5% Treasury yields stay sticky."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.736 with prior active rank 0.970 and recent pullback rank 0.851.",
"Recent return -7.04% versus prior active +25.28%; 52w-high distance -9.95%.",
"Horizon vol 31.82% and SPY beta 1.85."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.701 with prior active rank 0.851 and recent pullback rank 0.940.",
"Recent return -6.15% after prior active +6.57%; volume z 0.48.",
"SPY corr 0.48 and beta 1.08, lower than other shock names."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.713 with recent pullback rank 0.821 and low-vol rank 0.731.",
"Recent return only -1.01% with horizon vol 11.15% near SPY.",
"RSP minus SPY +2.46% over 5 sessions supports broader vs mega-cap."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.727; prior active rank 0.896 and recent pullback rank 0.806.",
"Recent return -6.88% after prior active +11.32%.",
"AP noted 68 of 75 tech constituents fell October 16."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest prior active rank 1.000 and quality score 0.711.",
"Prior active +45.39% with recent -10.16% sitting at the 52w-high distance.",
"Volume z 0.98 versus muted volume on many other tech names."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return -1.97% and 52w-high distance -2.03%.",
"Horizon vol 11.10% and max drawdown -3.06%.",
"FOMC Oct 27-28 and CPI Nov 10 fall inside the monthly window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.09 with horizon vol 5.17%.",
"Recent return +1.26% versus SPY -1.97%.",
"September CPI 3.7% y/y and 10y yield 5.09% cap duration upside."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.91, the highest on the slate.",
"Recent return +0.81% with vol 5.76% and beta 0.16.",
"Fed funds already 3.75%-4.00% after a 25 bp hike."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +9.15% and prior active +26.18%; near 52w high (-0.06%).",
"Negative SPY corr -0.39 and energy CPI component +5.2% monthly.",
"Horizon vol 48.83% and max drawdown -17.64%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s +6.25% but recent -0.86% and quality score only 0.247.",
"Distance to 52w high -29.30% with vol 37.10%.",
"SPY corr 0.50 and beta 1.78."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s +10.50% with volume z 2.36.",
"Quality score 0.112, lowest on the slate; prior active -15.10%.",
"Recent return -3.93% already fading the short burst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -5.11% and prior active -12.94%; quality 0.387.",
"Horizon vol 36.08% and drawdown -18.76%.",
"Volume z -0.77 shows no capitulation volume."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -23.57% and 52w-high distance -43.39%.",
"Quality 0.318 with shallow-drawdown rank 0.000.",
"Vol 33.99% and beta 1.93."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -27.57% and 52w-high distance -51.22%.",
"Quality 0.305 with prior active rank 0.000.",
"Vol 39.48% and gold 21s also negative."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -15.12% and active 21s -17.85% after prior active +12.07%.",
"Quality 0.711 with recent pullback rank 1.000 but vol 56.11% and beta 2.90.",
"52w-high distance -31.37% and max drawdown -21.90%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SILVER",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"BRAZIL",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BROAD_AI_TECH",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is only modestly off highs while a minority of assets are positive over 21 sessions; hot CPI/PPI, 5.09% 10y, and an in-window FOMC/GDP/CPI calendar favor mixed rather than clean continuation. Equal-weight beat cap-weight recently, oil is strong, and several high-beta Asia/tech names show sharp pullbacks after prior strength.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"TAIWAN",
"BIOTECH",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "One-month window includes FOMC, GDP, ECI, jobs, and CPI after a hot inflation print, so high-beta shock names have wide 80% ranges versus SPY. Highest-quality pullbacks (Taiwan, biotech, small value) rank first, but none clear a high-confidence beat-SPY bar given vol and policy risk; oil continuation is real but already extended.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is only modestly off highs while a minority of assets are positive over 21 sessions; hot CPI/PPI, 5.09% 10y, and an in-window FOMC/GDP/CPI calendar favor mixed rather than clean continuation. Equal-weight beat cap-weight recently, oil is strong, and several high-beta Asia/tech names show sharp pullbacks after prior strength.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16964,
"latency_seconds": 47.23856856499333,
"output_tokens": 2843,
"reasoning_tokens": 367,
"total_tokens": 20174
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%South Korea Equities (EWY)35%Broad AI Technology (AIQ)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 4 Argon google-gemini-4-argon | Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Broad AI Technology (AIQ)30% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Taiwan Equities (EWT)35%Biotechnology (XBI)35%Broad AI Technology (AIQ)30% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-19 | 207.76 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-19 | 90.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-19 | 28.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-19 | 28.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-19 | 113.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-19 | 147.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-19 | 46.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-19 | 41.93 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-19 | 62.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-19 | 20.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-19 | 60.28 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-19 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-19 | 50.87 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-19 | 110.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-19 | 114.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-19 | 87.21 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-19 | 39.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-19 | 160.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-19 | 99.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-19 | 69.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-19 | 91.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-19 | 58.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-19 | 67.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-19 | 213.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-19 | 54.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-19 | 103.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-19 | 86.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-19 | 55.06 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-19 | 77.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-19 | 175.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-19 | 76.83 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-19 | 47.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-19 | 166.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-19 | 90.08 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-19 | 47.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-19 | 102.88 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-19 | 94.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-19 | 57.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-19 | 79.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-19 | 50.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-19 | 101.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-19 | 75.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-19 | 102.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-19 | 718.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-19 | 41.67 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-19 | 69.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-19 | 766.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-19 | 548.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-19 | 91.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-19 | 51.54 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-19 | 105.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-19 | 41.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-19 | 64.61 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-19 | 156.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-19 | 107.26 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-19 | 185.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-19 | 375.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-19 | 105.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-19 | 47.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-19 | 95.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-19 | 34.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-19 | 29.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-19 | 122.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-19 | 255.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-19 | 73.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-19 | 72.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-19 | 295.71 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-19 | 271.28 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-19 | 207.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-19 | 41.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | df536fd4144e...a33d9bd1 |
| manifest.yaml | 29b36ffe557f...4632c536 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | c2a0b9871f7d...b0d7df92 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 0b557b573b30...38885ab6 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 3ba9cd104d79...54389267 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 7a493fa21e9a...5fc8d65e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 63725e3813a7...211f30c1 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 6c5d2b6ce734...924a50b4 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |