Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Using the latest available interim close, Gemini 3.1 Pro in CB-2026-10-10-1M is ahead of the S&P 500 by +7.62 percentage points, while Grok 4.5 in CB-2026-10-27-1M is at -6.41 percentage points.
Live alpha is interim model return minus interim S&P 500 return. It is provisional until the round reaches its official score date.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-11-12 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-20261012-1M-clean
31,590 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-12-1M
- Decision date: 2026-10-12
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-13T02:14:44Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-13T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-10-12
- Exit date: 2026-11-12
- Entry rule: Use the October 12, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Exit rule: Use the November 12, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — October 12, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-13T02:14:44Z. Latest completed U.S. equity session: October 12. Weekly exit: October 19; monthly exit: November 12.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current economic releases
BLS reported September nonfarm payroll growth of 29,000 and unemployment of 4.2% on October 2. July and August payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 60,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually. Preliminary payroll estimates are subject to sampling error and revisions.
BEA's September 30 release reported August nominal consumer spending up 0.9% and real spending up 0.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually; excluding food and energy, increases were 0.2% and 3.0%. The saving rate was 4.1%. Estimates incorporated an annual update with historical revisions beginning in 2021.
ISM's September services index was 54.9 versus August's 55.4, with business activity at 56.5, new orders 59.8, and employment 50.1. Its prices index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Thirteen industries reported growth and four contraction. September manufacturing activity was 54.5 versus 54.6 in August. Diffusion indexes describe breadth rather than output magnitude.
Census's October 8 release placed August wholesale sales at $817.5 billion, up 1.8% monthly and 15.6% annually. Inventories were $964.2 billion, up 0.5% monthly and 6.4% annually; inventory/sales was 1.18 versus 1.28 a year earlier. July sales growth was revised from 0.8% to 1.0%. Values are seasonally adjusted but not price adjusted and remain revisable.
BEA and Census's October 6 trade release reported an August deficit of $105.6 billion versus July's revised $92.8 billion. Exports were $315.2 billion and imports $420.8 billion, up 1.4% and 4.3% monthly. Headline trade figures are nominal.
## Policy, rates, and cross-asset observations
Federal Reserve minutes released October 7 describe the September meeting's unanimous decision to raise the policy range to 3.75%-4.00%. Most participants judged another increase likely appropriate by year end, while emphasizing incoming-data dependence. Participants described solid activity and elevated inflation; several noted pressure on lower-income households from energy costs. These are September meeting views, not an October policy decision.
The October 12 U.S. equity close was mixed: the S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 7,807.24, the Dow rose 0.4% to 51,850.55, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4% to 27,245.90, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.4% to 2,794.48. Associated Press reported that roughly 64% of S&P 500 constituents advanced. Brent crude rose 1.8% to $106.65 per barrel. Official CapitalBench ETF entry prices are supplied separately.
U.S. bond trading was closed October 12 for the federal holiday. The latest published Treasury curve remained October 9: one-year 4.47%, two-year 4.80%, five-year 5.02%, ten-year 5.24%, and thirty-year 5.60%. These are dated indicative-quotation yields and are not October 12 observations.
EIA's October 6 outlook forecast fourth-quarter Brent at $105 per barrel, $14 above the prior forecast, while estimating September Middle East shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day versus 5.8 million in August. Forecast inputs were completed October 1 and exclude subsequent events. The gasoline/diesel release for October 12 observations is holiday-delayed until October 14; those observations were not available at the cutoff.
The ECB's September decision raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. Staff projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, with upside inflation and downside growth risks. Projections are conditional on the duration and intensity of the energy shock.
## Scheduled catalysts
Inside the October 19 weekly horizon: September CPI and real earnings on October 14 at 08:30 ET; retail sales and PPI on October 15 at 08:30 ET; holiday-delayed petroleum data on October 15 at 12:00 ET; import/export prices on October 16 at 08:30 ET. The major-bank earnings season begins October 13, as reported by Associated Press.
The monthly horizon also includes the October 27-28 FOMC meeting; advance third-quarter GDP and September income/PCE on October 29; ECI October 30; ISM manufacturing November 2; job openings November 3; international trade and ISM services November 4; productivity November 5; employment November 6; wholesale sales/inventories November 9; October CPI November 10 at 08:30 ET; and the next energy outlook November 10. The November 11 federal holiday delays the weekly petroleum report to November 12 at 12:00 ET, before the monthly exit close. November 13 PPI falls outside this round. Scheduled outcomes remain unknown at the cutoff.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-12-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-12-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-12'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-13T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-13T02:13:59.737708+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the October 12, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
exit_rule: Use the November 12, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
entry_date: '2026-10-12'
exit_date: '2026-11-12'
created_at: '2026-10-13T02:13:59.737708+00:00'
notes: 'After-close decision round using the completed October 12 U.S. session as entry. Fresh public-source research cutoff: 2026-10-13T02:14:44Z.'# Market Briefing — October 12, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-13T02:14:44Z. Latest completed U.S. equity session: October 12. Weekly exit: October 19; monthly exit: November 12.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current economic releases
BLS reported September nonfarm payroll growth of 29,000 and unemployment of 4.2% on October 2. July and August payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 60,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% monthly and 3.0% annually. Preliminary payroll estimates are subject to sampling error and revisions.
BEA's September 30 release reported August nominal consumer spending up 0.9% and real spending up 0.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% monthly and 3.4% annually; excluding food and energy, increases were 0.2% and 3.0%. The saving rate was 4.1%. Estimates incorporated an annual update with historical revisions beginning in 2021.
ISM's September services index was 54.9 versus August's 55.4, with business activity at 56.5, new orders 59.8, and employment 50.1. Its prices index rose to 74.0, the highest since July 2022. Thirteen industries reported growth and four contraction. September manufacturing activity was 54.5 versus 54.6 in August. Diffusion indexes describe breadth rather than output magnitude.
Census's October 8 release placed August wholesale sales at $817.5 billion, up 1.8% monthly and 15.6% annually. Inventories were $964.2 billion, up 0.5% monthly and 6.4% annually; inventory/sales was 1.18 versus 1.28 a year earlier. July sales growth was revised from 0.8% to 1.0%. Values are seasonally adjusted but not price adjusted and remain revisable.
BEA and Census's October 6 trade release reported an August deficit of $105.6 billion versus July's revised $92.8 billion. Exports were $315.2 billion and imports $420.8 billion, up 1.4% and 4.3% monthly. Headline trade figures are nominal.
## Policy, rates, and cross-asset observations
Federal Reserve minutes released October 7 describe the September meeting's unanimous decision to raise the policy range to 3.75%-4.00%. Most participants judged another increase likely appropriate by year end, while emphasizing incoming-data dependence. Participants described solid activity and elevated inflation; several noted pressure on lower-income households from energy costs. These are September meeting views, not an October policy decision.
The October 12 U.S. equity close was mixed: the S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 7,807.24, the Dow rose 0.4% to 51,850.55, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4% to 27,245.90, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.4% to 2,794.48. Associated Press reported that roughly 64% of S&P 500 constituents advanced. Brent crude rose 1.8% to $106.65 per barrel. Official CapitalBench ETF entry prices are supplied separately.
U.S. bond trading was closed October 12 for the federal holiday. The latest published Treasury curve remained October 9: one-year 4.47%, two-year 4.80%, five-year 5.02%, ten-year 5.24%, and thirty-year 5.60%. These are dated indicative-quotation yields and are not October 12 observations.
EIA's October 6 outlook forecast fourth-quarter Brent at $105 per barrel, $14 above the prior forecast, while estimating September Middle East shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day versus 5.8 million in August. Forecast inputs were completed October 1 and exclude subsequent events. The gasoline/diesel release for October 12 observations is holiday-delayed until October 14; those observations were not available at the cutoff.
The ECB's September decision raised the deposit facility rate to 2.50%. Staff projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, with upside inflation and downside growth risks. Projections are conditional on the duration and intensity of the energy shock.
## Scheduled catalysts
Inside the October 19 weekly horizon: September CPI and real earnings on October 14 at 08:30 ET; retail sales and PPI on October 15 at 08:30 ET; holiday-delayed petroleum data on October 15 at 12:00 ET; import/export prices on October 16 at 08:30 ET. The major-bank earnings season begins October 13, as reported by Associated Press.
The monthly horizon also includes the October 27-28 FOMC meeting; advance third-quarter GDP and September income/PCE on October 29; ECI October 30; ISM manufacturing November 2; job openings November 3; international trade and ISM services November 4; productivity November 5; employment November 6; wholesale sales/inventories November 9; October CPI November 10 at 08:30 ET; and the next energy outlook November 10. The November 11 federal holiday delays the weekly petroleum report to November 12 at 12:00 ET, before the monthly exit close. November 13 PPI falls outside this round. Scheduled outcomes remain unknown at the cutoff.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "3877de5555e6db243ed48229652e49f15ce48e4bcfc8e24245fe60c3e288f423",
"manifest.yaml": "27108dfd49371b92822aee082bab71d1ca67ccd4887b80a20e1da8e3d09836ee",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "769354e709c3c1dfb0c782f8f386cccdf743ab85f16ac4d934d824d922f2cce1",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "90465f3df7582b9180ea73f18fe493f23cb2f53e311535bde69299b9ad339eef",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "0f1ae37871a679da3011577b246b7bb9b250971457d68575146706f5eee29e6a",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "d46aae5a4e41bd9ccca808388ffda8d104d37cfe57b0f7f160b345e8baa7b9b1",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "302977828f4f10febb8d2f876e464a5c7fa2050b41d2c4ffbc43b3e34a9428a8",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "e1c3706fb3b4d43dceb7ea97623c423c96507985898ca82dcec89b088b615d09",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "b0cf9b835591ce66e32f658ea0a409637a6f58535c6e08290b08283733e9174a",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-12-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-12-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-12-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-12-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-12-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-12-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-12-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Only Korea and Financials pass as overreaction pullbacks with modest positive edge: Korea has the strongest prior trend in the universe and a non-volume-driven 12% relative drop, while Financials enter bank earnings season after a quality pullback with a steep curve. Cybersecurity is a strong trend but extended with no independent catalyst. Duration-sensitive dislocations (MBB, MUB) and commodity-linked losers (silver, solar, metals) show persistent prior underperformance against a hawkish Fed and strong dollar, so they fail the reversal test. Overall edge is thin; SPY remains a reasonable default.
Macro backdrop is stagflationary: payrolls 29k, core PCE 3.0%, ISM services prices at 74, Fed hiking to 3.75-4.00% with another hike likely, 10y at 5.24%, Brent above $106. Breadth is weak (31.88% of assets positive over 21 sessions, RSP lagging SPY by 2.47%) while mega-cap tech and energy hold the index up. Dispersion is high with a crypto outlier and a sharp Korea drawdown. Rate-sensitive assets face a hawkish FOMC on Oct 27-28 and two CPI prints inside the window, so duration and rate-sensitive reversals look premature; equity pullbacks with intact prior trends (Korea, financials into bank earnings) are the best reversal tests.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish Oct 27-28 FOMC or hot Oct 14 / Nov 10 CPI prints extend the rate-driven selloff and hit high-beta Korea and financials",
"Semiconductor weakness (SMH -6.77% over 5 sessions) deepens, dragging Korea further despite its prior trend",
"Bank earnings reveal credit deterioration from energy-cost-strained lower-income households",
"Brent above $106 and Middle East supply shut-ins escalate into a broader risk-off that favors the mega-cap-weighted index"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.92% after prior active +21.95%; prior active rank 0.970 and pullback rank 1.000",
"Volume z -0.88 indicates no distribution-driven selloff; no briefing fact describing a Korea-specific fundamental shock",
"Horizon vol 55.87% and SPY beta 2.81 make the range very wide"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.56% with prior active roughly flat (-0.47%); quality score 0.702",
"Major-bank earnings season begins October 13 inside the window; 5-session return +2.17% shows stabilization",
"Steep curve with 2y 4.80% and 10y 5.24% supports net interest margins"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +37.84% and recent active +12.14%, 2% from 52w high; no independent briefing catalyst supplied",
"Recent pullback rank 0.015 means extended; volume z +0.52 and 32.7% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.58%, quality score 0.726, vol 10.9%",
"Fed hiking with payrolls at 29k and 10y at 5.24% weighs on small-cap financing; Russell 2000 fell 0.4% on Oct 12"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 21s return +2.06%, 0.13% from 52w high, vol 10.89%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.04% but recent active only +0.97%; 5s return -3.16% alongside SMH -6.77%",
"Vol 31.83%, beta 1.87; no in-window catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.09% following prior active -12.83%; down-trend persistent, 20% below 52w high",
"Gold 21s -4.12% and strong dollar (UUP 21s +3.78%) are headwinds for resource-heavy market"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.72% after prior active -12.76%; drawdown -15.75%, vol 36%",
"Dollar strength and precious-metal weakness persist; copper only +1.64% active"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.0 and recent active -3.76%, prior active -13.95%",
"FOMC Oct 27-28 with another hike judged likely; 10y 5.24%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.0, recent active -4.01%, prior active -13.95%, vol 4.56%",
"Hawkish Fed minutes and elevated inflation argue against duration reversal in window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -26.56% and recent active -8.55%; 48.5% below 52w high, prior active rank 0.000",
"Rising nominal and real rates with dollar up 3.78% over 21s"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -25.80%, recent active -9.84%, drawdown -22.94%, 41% below 52w high",
"Rising rates hurt capital-intensive clean energy; vol 33%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +178.76% with horizon vol 397.8%; prior active only +0.50%",
"No briefing catalyst supports the move; IBIT 5s -3.50%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -40,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 40,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SOUTH_KOREA": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: payrolls 29k, core PCE 3.0%, ISM services prices at 74, Fed hiking to 3.75-4.00% with another hike likely, 10y at 5.24%, Brent above $106. Breadth is weak (31.88% of assets positive over 21 sessions, RSP lagging SPY by 2.47%) while mega-cap tech and energy hold the index up. Dispersion is high with a crypto outlier and a sharp Korea drawdown. Rate-sensitive assets face a hawkish FOMC on Oct 27-28 and two CPI prints inside the window, so duration and rate-sensitive reversals look premature; equity pullbacks with intact prior trends (Korea, financials into bank earnings) are the best reversal tests.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"FINANCIALS",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Korea and Financials pass as overreaction pullbacks with modest positive edge: Korea has the strongest prior trend in the universe and a non-volume-driven 12% relative drop, while Financials enter bank earnings season after a quality pullback with a steep curve. Cybersecurity is a strong trend but extended with no independent catalyst. Duration-sensitive dislocations (MBB, MUB) and commodity-linked losers (silver, solar, metals) show persistent prior underperformance against a hawkish Fed and strong dollar, so they fail the reversal test. Overall edge is thin; SPY remains a reasonable default.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: payrolls 29k, core PCE 3.0%, ISM services prices at 74, Fed hiking to 3.75-4.00% with another hike likely, 10y at 5.24%, Brent above $106. Breadth is weak (31.88% of assets positive over 21 sessions, RSP lagging SPY by 2.47%) while mega-cap tech and energy hold the index up. Dispersion is high with a crypto outlier and a sharp Korea drawdown. Rate-sensitive assets face a hawkish FOMC on Oct 27-28 and two CPI prints inside the window, so duration and rate-sensitive reversals look premature; equity pullbacks with intact prior trends (Korea, financials into bank earnings) are the best reversal tests.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-12-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27796,
"latency_seconds": 42.183194649987854,
"output_tokens": 3691,
"total_tokens": 31487
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
Only Financials shows a supported pullback reversal with a near-term catalyst (bank earnings) and steep-curve tailwind; other reversal candidates face dollar strength, rising yields, or fundamental downtrends. Most slots should default to SPY.
Stagflationary backdrop: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% with more likely, PCE 3.4%, ISM prices 74, Brent ~$107, 10y 5.24%, weak payrolls. Only 32% of assets positive over 21 sessions; SPY narrow leadership (RSP -2.47% vs SPY over 21s). Dense catalyst calendar (CPI, FOMC, jobs, CPI again) raises dispersion. Reversal edges are modest; high-beta pullbacks carry rate and energy risk.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot Oct 14 CPI or hawkish Oct 28 FOMC triggering broad risk-off",
"Bank earnings disappointing on credit costs from lower-income consumer stress",
"Oil shock escalation hurting cyclicals",
"Semiconductor selloff spilling into mega-cap leadership"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Active -5.56% over 21s with flat prior trend; quality score 0.702",
"Major-bank earnings begin Oct 13; steep curve (2y 4.80%, 30y 5.60%) supports margins",
"Beta 0.62, vol 12.1%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; 0.13% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -5.58% over 21s, quality 0.726",
"Rising long yields and hawkish Fed weigh on small caps"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.04%, -3.16% from high",
"SMH -6.77% over 5s, beta 1.87"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +37.84%, recent +12.14%",
"Vol 32.7%; rate risk with 10y at 5.24%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.0; prior active -13.95%",
"Fed signaling further hikes"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.0, vol 4.56%",
"Rate upside risk from CPI/FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-11.15% recent after +21.95% prior active; quality 0.742",
"Vol 55.9%, beta 2.81; semis selling off"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -9.72% 21s, prior -12.76%",
"Strong dollar UUP +3.78% 21s"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -11.09% recent, -12.83% prior",
"Gold weak, dollar strong"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-48.53% from 52w high; prior active -26.56%",
"Rising real yields and dollar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -25.80%, -41% from high",
"Rate-sensitive amid 5%+ yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+178.76% in window, vol 397.8% - possible data anomaly",
"No briefing catalyst supports it"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -40,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 30,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Stagflationary backdrop: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% with more likely, PCE 3.4%, ISM prices 74, Brent ~$107, 10y 5.24%, weak payrolls. Only 32% of assets positive over 21 sessions; SPY narrow leadership (RSP -2.47% vs SPY over 21s). Dense catalyst calendar (CPI, FOMC, jobs, CPI again) raises dispersion. Reversal edges are modest; high-beta pullbacks carry rate and energy risk.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"SP500",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Financials shows a supported pullback reversal with a near-term catalyst (bank earnings) and steep-curve tailwind; other reversal candidates face dollar strength, rising yields, or fundamental downtrends. Most slots should default to SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Stagflationary backdrop: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% with more likely, PCE 3.4%, ISM prices 74, Brent ~$107, 10y 5.24%, weak payrolls. Only 32% of assets positive over 21 sessions; SPY narrow leadership (RSP -2.47% vs SPY over 21s). Dense catalyst calendar (CPI, FOMC, jobs, CPI again) raises dispersion. Reversal edges are modest; high-beta pullbacks carry rate and energy risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-12-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27796,
"latency_seconds": 27.026028899941593,
"output_tokens": 2978,
"total_tokens": 30774
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks, specifically SOUTH_KOREA, SOUTH_AFRICA, and METALS_MINING, anticipating a reversal of these short-term overreactions.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid services activity but downward payroll revisions and elevated inflation concerns noted in Fed minutes. The upcoming earnings season and CPI data will be key drivers.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued strength in the US dollar could negatively impact international equities and commodities.",
"Higher-than-expected inflation data could lead to a more hawkish Fed, pressuring risk assets."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -11.15% with a high quality score of 0.742.",
"Prior active return was strong at 21.95%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -11.09% despite a positive absolute return of 0.95%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of -25.80% and recent active return of -9.84%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -9.72%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of -26.56%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong prior active return of 37.84% and recent active return of 12.14%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 30.04%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extreme recent return of 178.76% with very high volatility of 397.80%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High quality score of 0.726 with a recent active return of -5.58%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High quality score of 0.702 and recent active return of -5.56%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High volume z-score of 5.00."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High volume z-score of 5.00."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark asset."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"METALS_MINING": 30,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 35,
"SOUTH_KOREA": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid services activity but downward payroll revisions and elevated inflation concerns noted in Fed minutes. The upcoming earnings season and CPI data will be key drivers.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks, specifically SOUTH_KOREA, SOUTH_AFRICA, and METALS_MINING, anticipating a reversal of these short-term overreactions.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid services activity but downward payroll revisions and elevated inflation concerns noted in Fed minutes. The upcoming earnings season and CPI data will be key drivers.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-12-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19111,
"latency_seconds": 32.49617741396651,
"output_tokens": 2705,
"total_tokens": 21816
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Energy has the strongest independent macro support but is supported continuation, not an overreaction. Financials offer the clearest eligible relative-reversal thesis, with imminent earnings and resilient activity supporting a modest edge. Korea receives a fair reversal assessment but remains below the eligibility threshold because its price-based quality score is offset by extreme risk and missing fundamental confirmation. Unfilled slots appropriately remain in SPY rather than forcing additional reversal labels.
Cross-sectional outcomes are widely dispersed, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing and Ethereum is an extreme outlier. Strong spending and expansionary ISM readings coexist with weak payroll growth, elevated inflation and a tightening Fed. This supports selective earnings-linked reversals and energy exposure rather than indiscriminate dip buying. Recent-return and active-return columns cover different windows; neither is treated as a forecast. Quality scores measure price behavior, not verified balance-sheet quality.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot CPI or PCE releases and further Fed tightening could depress equities and duration assets simultaneously.",
"Bank earnings could reveal credit deterioration or funding pressure, invalidating the financials reversal thesis.",
"Faster restoration of Middle East production could reverse energy's fundamental support.",
"Korea's selloff could reflect unreported fundamental deterioration rather than temporary price pressure.",
"Ethereum's extreme supplied observations and holiday-dated bond inputs increase measurement and calibration uncertainty."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"The slate misses direct energy-equity exposure despite EIA raising its fourth-quarter Brent forecast by $14 to $105.",
"September Middle East shut-ins remained 4.8 million barrels per day; Brent closed October 12 at $106.65.",
"Energy is at its 52-week high, limiting valuation-free extrapolation; the November 10 energy outlook falls inside the window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -5.56% contrasts with a nearly flat prior active return of -0.47%.",
"Major-bank earnings begin October 13, providing an immediate opportunity to reassess the relative selloff.",
"Real spending rose 0.6% and services new orders were 59.8, supporting activity despite weak payrolls; quality evidence score is 0.702."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The 11.15% five-session decline and -11.92% recent active return follow +21.95% prior active performance.",
"The 0.742 quality score supports a reversal test, but volatility of 55.87% and beta of 2.81 materially weaken confidence.",
"Volume z-score is -0.88 rather than evidence of a high-volume capitulation; no Korea-specific fundamental catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score of 0.726 and volatility of 10.90% make this a less speculative pullback than the shock losers.",
"Recent active return is -5.58%, but prior active return was already -1.90%.",
"Strong spending supports domestic activity, while another possible Fed increase and weak payrolls impede a confident reversal classification."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 30.04% remains strong, but recent active return is still positive at 0.97%; this is not a deep relative-value reset.",
"Volatility is 31.83%, beta is 1.87 and the 63-session drawdown is 12.76%.",
"The briefing supplies no semiconductor-specific earnings or demand catalyst to validate continuation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY returned 2.06% over 21 sessions and is only 0.13% below its 52-week high.",
"Only 31.88% of assets rose over 21 sessions, although roughly 64% of S&P constituents advanced on October 12.",
"SPY's excess return against itself is identically zero."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns of 12.14% and 37.84% identify exceptional strength, not an independently supported forecast.",
"Volatility is 32.70% and price is within 2% of its 52-week high.",
"No cybersecurity-specific catalyst or fundamental evidence is supplied to offset tightening-policy sensitivity."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of approximately 5 does not establish whether flows reflect forced selling or buying.",
"Weak payroll growth supports a defensive case, but elevated inflation and Fed tightening create duration risk.",
"Bond trading was closed October 12; the supplied Treasury yields are October 9 observations."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volatility of 4.56% offers defense, but recent and prior active returns remain negative.",
"Volume z-score of 5.00 is not accompanied by supplied evidence of a temporary discount or credit mispricing.",
"The October FOMC meeting and two CPI releases can reprice duration before exit."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Manufacturing ISM of 54.5 supports a cyclical-demand reversal test.",
"Recent active return of -9.72% follows -12.76% prior active performance, indicating persistent rather than isolated weakness.",
"Volatility of 36.16% and negative volume z-score provide no clear capitulation confirmation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -11.09% follows prior active return of -12.83%, weakening the isolated-overreaction thesis.",
"The 14.09% drawdown and 27.25% volatility leave substantial downside risk.",
"The dollar gained 3.78% over 21 sessions, a potential headwind for unhedged international exposure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Inflation and energy stress provide a potential hedge rationale, but the Fed is tightening and the dollar has strengthened.",
"Recent active return of -8.55% follows -26.56% prior active performance.",
"The 48.53% distance below the high is not evidence of fair value; quality score is only 0.298."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Higher policy rates and a 5.24% ten-year Treasury yield create adverse financing conditions for rate-sensitive development exposure.",
"Recent active return of -9.84% follows -25.80% prior active performance, with a 22.94% drawdown.",
"No supplied near-term policy or earnings catalyst establishes that the persistent weakness is temporary."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The supplied 178.76% five-session return and 397.80% volatility are extreme outliers that weaken conventional forecast calibration.",
"Volume z-score is negative despite the reported price surge.",
"No network, flow or regulatory catalyst is supplied; tighter policy challenges liquidity-sensitive exposure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -45,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 55,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Cross-sectional outcomes are widely dispersed, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing and Ethereum is an extreme outlier. Strong spending and expansionary ISM readings coexist with weak payroll growth, elevated inflation and a tightening Fed. This supports selective earnings-linked reversals and energy exposure rather than indiscriminate dip buying. Recent-return and active-return columns cover different windows; neither is treated as a forecast. Quality scores measure price behavior, not verified balance-sheet quality.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"FINANCIALS",
"SOUTH_KOREA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy has the strongest independent macro support but is supported continuation, not an overreaction. Financials offer the clearest eligible relative-reversal thesis, with imminent earnings and resilient activity supporting a modest edge. Korea receives a fair reversal assessment but remains below the eligibility threshold because its price-based quality score is offset by extreme risk and missing fundamental confirmation. Unfilled slots appropriately remain in SPY rather than forcing additional reversal labels.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Cross-sectional outcomes are widely dispersed, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing and Ethereum is an extreme outlier. Strong spending and expansionary ISM readings coexist with weak payroll growth, elevated inflation and a tightening Fed. This supports selective earnings-linked reversals and energy exposure rather than indiscriminate dip buying. Recent-return and active-return columns cover different windows; neither is treated as a forecast. Quality scores measure price behavior, not verified balance-sheet quality.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-12-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15799,
"latency_seconds": 64.15938643994741,
"output_tokens": 3377,
"reasoning_tokens": 143,
"total_tokens": 19176
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Top ranks assigned to high-quality pullback names with overreaction labels and p_beat_spy above 55%; reversal mechanism supported by prior active strength and low recent volume.
US data shows modest growth with payroll revisions and stable services; several international and commodity exposures display sharp recent pullbacks against prior strength, favoring reversal candidates over continuation.
{
"confidence": 0.5833,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"US payroll revisions may signal slower growth",
"Energy price volatility from Middle East supply data",
"FOMC October meeting outcome uncertainty",
"High volume dislocation in bond proxies may reverse"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-11.15% recent return vs 21.95% prior active",
"quality evidence score 0.742 highest in slate",
"volume z -0.88"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.726",
"-5.58% recent active",
"low horizon vol 10.90%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.702",
"2.17% recent return but -5.56% active",
"prior active -0.47%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"12.14% recent active",
"quality score 0.506",
"volume z 0.52"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.42% recent return",
"benchmark status"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.00",
"low vol 4.56%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.00",
"low horizon drawdown -4.64%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.16% recent return",
"quality score 0.540"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.95% recent return but -11.09% active",
"quality score 0.466"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.70% recent return",
"quality score 0.442"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.41% recent return",
"quality score 0.298"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.44% recent return",
"quality score 0.313"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"178.76% recent return",
"vol 397.80%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 30,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"SOUTH_KOREA": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "reversal",
"market_rationale": "US data shows modest growth with payroll revisions and stable services; several international and commodity exposures display sharp recent pullbacks against prior strength, favoring reversal candidates over continuation.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks assigned to high-quality pullback names with overreaction labels and p_beat_spy above 55%; reversal mechanism supported by prior active strength and low recent volume.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "US data shows modest growth with payroll revisions and stable services; several international and commodity exposures display sharp recent pullbacks against prior strength, favoring reversal candidates over continuation.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-12-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16041,
"latency_seconds": 19.770915364963003,
"output_tokens": 1901,
"reasoning_tokens": 704,
"total_tokens": 18646
}
}xai-grok-4-5
High-quality pullback reversals in Korea, small-value, and financials offer the clearest overreaction edges with p_beat >=55 amid elevated dispersion and sticky inflation; extreme crypto momentum and pure bond volume spikes lack comparable one-month support versus SPY.
Elevated cross-asset dispersion with soft payrolls, sticky PCE/ISM prices, and hawkish Fed minutes favoring selective reversals in high-quality pullbacks over pure momentum; energy shock and holiday-delayed data add near-term uncertainty within the one-month window.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further Fed hawkishness or hot CPI/PPI could extend equity drawdowns and pressure high-beta Korea",
"Energy price spike persistence (Brent ~106) may keep inflation elevated and delay rate relief",
"Geopolitical or semiconductor-specific shocks could invalidate Korea/Taiwan mean-reversion",
"Low positive-asset share on 21s window signals fragile breadth if risk-off resumes"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.92% after prior active +21.95%",
"Highest quality evidence score 0.742 with deep pullback rank 1.000",
"Horizon vol 55.87% and max DD -18.52% but 52w distance -22.40%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 3.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.58% with quality score 0.726",
"Low horizon vol 10.90% and shallowish DD -7.53%",
"Prior active only mildly negative -1.90%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.56% after near-flat prior -0.47%",
"Quality score 0.702 with strong pullback rank 0.791",
"Horizon vol 12.14% and beta 0.62"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.09% with prior active -12.83%",
"Quality 0.466 and pullback rank 0.985",
"Vol 27.25% and 52w distance -20.20%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.72% after prior -12.76%",
"Pullback rank 0.955 and quality 0.442",
"Vol 36.16% with 52w distance -20.96%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.84% after deep prior -25.80%",
"Pullback rank 0.970 but quality only 0.313",
"Max DD -22.94% and 52w distance -41.19%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.55% after prior -26.56%",
"Pullback rank 0.940 quality 0.298",
"Low SPY corr 0.37 and 52w distance -48.53%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.04% with recent active still +0.97%",
"Quality 0.540 and medium_strength lane",
"Vol 31.83% near 52w high -3.16%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +12.14% after prior +37.84%",
"Quality 0.506 with prior rank 1.000",
"Near 52w high -2.00% and vol 32.70%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.00 with recent active -3.76%",
"Low vol 5.54% quality 0.453",
"Rates backdrop with 10y at 5.24%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.00 recent active -4.01%",
"Vol 4.56% quality 0.481",
"Holiday-closed bond session and elevated yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with recent return 0.42% and vol 10.89%",
"Distance to 52w high only -0.13%",
"Mixed close with 64% of constituents advancing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extreme recent return +178.76% and active +195.17%",
"Horizon vol 397.80% with low SPY corr 0.19",
"Quality 0.390 and prior active only +0.50%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -25,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 30,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"SOUTH_KOREA": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Elevated cross-asset dispersion with soft payrolls, sticky PCE/ISM prices, and hawkish Fed minutes favoring selective reversals in high-quality pullbacks over pure momentum; energy shock and holiday-delayed data add near-term uncertainty within the one-month window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "High-quality pullback reversals in Korea, small-value, and financials offer the clearest overreaction edges with p_beat >=55 amid elevated dispersion and sticky inflation; extreme crypto momentum and pure bond volume spikes lack comparable one-month support versus SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Elevated cross-asset dispersion with soft payrolls, sticky PCE/ISM prices, and hawkish Fed minutes favoring selective reversals in high-quality pullbacks over pure momentum; energy shock and holiday-delayed data add near-term uncertainty within the one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-12-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17041,
"latency_seconds": 42.187974372995086,
"output_tokens": 2785,
"reasoning_tokens": 212,
"total_tokens": 20038
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Only South Korea combines a documented shock pullback, strong prior active trend, and top quality-evidence score with a modest >50% chance of beating SPY over one month; other shock names have weaker quality or ongoing deterioration, while continuation names are already extended into a hawkish-data window. SPY remains the default core given proximity to highs, FOMC, and CPI/PCE catalysts.
SPY is near a 52-week high with mixed 10/12 session internals while 21-session breadth is weak; Fed minutes still point to another hike risk into the Oct 27-28 FOMC, and energy/inflation prints remain elevated. Shock-lane EM and commodity names show large recent active drawdowns against strong prior Korea strength, while cyber/ETH/Taiwan are continuation-style but stretched or high-vol. One-month edge versus SPY is limited outside a Korea mean-reversion test.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Another Fed hike path after the Oct 27-28 FOMC if CPI/PCE stay hot.",
"Korea/EM beta and 50%+ vol can extend the shock rather than reverse.",
"Brent near $106 and ISM services prices at 74 keep inflation and rate-sensitive assets under pressure.",
"Bank earnings from Oct 13 can reprice financials and risk appetite independently of the Korea bounce."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -11.15% and active -11.92% versus prior active +21.95% and quality evidence score 0.742.",
"Horizon vol 55.87% and max drawdown -18.52% with beta 2.81 and 52w-high distance -22.40%.",
"Volume z -0.88 on the shock_reversal/quality_pullback slate profile."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return 21s -11.09% with prior active -12.83% and 52w-high distance -20.20%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.466 with recent pullback rank 0.985.",
"Horizon vol 27.25% and SPY beta 1.61."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s -9.72% and prior active -12.76% with recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"Horizon vol 36.16%, drawdown -15.75%, 52w-high -20.96%.",
"Volume z -0.89."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.726 with recent pullback rank 0.806.",
"Active 21s -5.58% versus SPY vol similar at 10.90% and beta 0.92.",
"52w-high distance -6.81% and modest volume z 0.36."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -25.80% and 52w-high distance -41.19% with quality score 0.313.",
"Horizon vol 33.42% and max drawdown -22.94%.",
"Active 21s -9.84% after a long downtrend."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -26.56%, 52w-high -48.53%, quality score 0.298.",
"Active 21s -8.55% with vol 37.59% and low SPY corr 0.37.",
"IAU 21s also negative in the mechanical market state."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.702 and recent pullback rank 0.791 with active 21s -5.56%.",
"Recent 5s +2.17% while SPY was +0.42%; beta 0.62.",
"Major-bank earnings begin October 13 inside the window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.04% and quality score 0.540 with 52w-high only -3.16%.",
"Recent 5s -3.16% and volume z -0.62.",
"Beta 1.87 and vol 31.83%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s +12.14% and prior active +37.84% with 52w-high -2.00%.",
"Quality score 0.506 but recent pullback rank 0.015.",
"Vol 32.70% and volume z 0.52."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5s +0.42% and 21s +2.06% with 52w-high distance -0.13%.",
"Horizon vol 10.89% and max drawdown -3.36%.",
"October 12 close mixed with 64% of S&P 500 constituents advancing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.00 with active 21s -3.76% and prior active -13.95%.",
"Ten-year yield last published 5.24% on October 9; bonds closed October 12.",
"Low beta 0.15 versus equity-risk window including FOMC."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.00, active 21s -4.01%, prior active -13.95%.",
"Horizon vol 4.56% and beta 0.10.",
"Fed minutes: another increase likely appropriate by year end."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return 178.76% and active 21s +195.17% with horizon vol 397.80%.",
"Quality score 0.390 and recent pullback rank 0.000.",
"SPY corr 0.19 and beta 3.12; no independent in-window fundamental support supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -45,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 35,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SOUTH_KOREA": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high with mixed 10/12 session internals while 21-session breadth is weak; Fed minutes still point to another hike risk into the Oct 27-28 FOMC, and energy/inflation prints remain elevated. Shock-lane EM and commodity names show large recent active drawdowns against strong prior Korea strength, while cyber/ETH/Taiwan are continuation-style but stretched or high-vol. One-month edge versus SPY is limited outside a Korea mean-reversion test.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only South Korea combines a documented shock pullback, strong prior active trend, and top quality-evidence score with a modest >50% chance of beating SPY over one month; other shock names have weaker quality or ongoing deterioration, while continuation names are already extended into a hawkish-data window. SPY remains the default core given proximity to highs, FOMC, and CPI/PCE catalysts.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high with mixed 10/12 session internals while 21-session breadth is weak; Fed minutes still point to another hike risk into the Oct 27-28 FOMC, and energy/inflation prints remain elevated. Shock-lane EM and commodity names show large recent active drawdowns against strong prior Korea strength, while cyber/ETH/Taiwan are continuation-style but stretched or high-vol. One-month edge versus SPY is limited outside a Korea mean-reversion test.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-12-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17183,
"latency_seconds": 53.59120955003891,
"output_tokens": 2616,
"reasoning_tokens": 682,
"total_tokens": 20481
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | South Korea Equities (EWY)35%Financials Sector (XLF)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | South Korea Equities (EWY)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)35%Metals and Mining (XME)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | South Korea Equities (EWY)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Financials Sector (XLF)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | South Korea Equities (EWY)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Financials Sector (XLF)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | South Korea Equities (EWY)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-12 | 206.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-12 | 89.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-12 | 28.44 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-12 | 28.67 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-12 | 121.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-12 | 151.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-12 | 46.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-12 | 43.54 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-12 | 65.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-12 | 19.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-12 | 59.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-12 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-12 | 52.15 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-12 | 111.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-12 | 112.27 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-12 | 84.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-12 | 40.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-12 | 151.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-12 | 107.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-12 | 69.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-12 | 91.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-12 | 59.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-12 | 66.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-12 | 213.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-12 | 56.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-12 | 102.99 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-12 | 85.82 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-12 | 55.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-12 | 78.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-12 | 171.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-12 | 77.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-12 | 46.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-12 | 169.15 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-12 | 89.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-12 | 46.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-12 | 102.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-12 | 97.32 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-12 | 57.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-12 | 78.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-12 | 49.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-12 | 104.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-12 | 73.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-12 | 101.16 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-12 | 746.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-12 | 41.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-12 | 69.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-12 | 778.10 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-12 | 590.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-12 | 91.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-12 | 54.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-12 | 111.28 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-12 | 43.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-12 | 63.77 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-12 | 170.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-12 | 114.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-12 | 196.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-12 | 381.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-12 | 104.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-12 | 46.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-12 | 94.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-12 | 33.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-12 | 29.13 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-12 | 127.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-12 | 254.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-12 | 72.79 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-12 | 73.16 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-12 | 315.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-12 | 277.90 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-12 | 211.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-12 | 41.63 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 3877de5555e6...e288f423 |
| manifest.yaml | 27108dfd4937...d09836ee |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 769354e709c3...22f2cce1 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 90465f3df758...ad339eef |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 0f1ae37871a6...eee29e6a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | d46aae5a4e41...baa7b9b1 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 302977828f4f...4a9428a8 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | e1c3706fb3b4...8b615d09 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |