Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 10.9.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 72.7 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +37.14% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +65.00%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-11-06 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
20261007-0356-official-clean
33,306 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Financials Sector (XLF)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-06-1M
- Decision date: 2026-10-06
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-10-06
- Exit date: 2026-11-06
- Entry rule: Use the October 6, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Exit rule: Use the November 6, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — October 6, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z. The latest completed U.S. session is Tuesday, October 6.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current macro picture
The September services diffusion index was 54.9, down 0.5 point from August and above the 50 expansion threshold for a 27th consecutive month. Business activity was 56.5, new orders 59.8, employment 50.1, and supplier deliveries 53.2. The services prices index rose 1.4 points to 74.0, its highest reading since July 2022. Backlogs increased to 56.6, while new export orders fell to 46.9. Diffusion indexes measure breadth and direction rather than the magnitude of output, and the supplier-deliveries index is inverted.
The U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit increased $12.7 billion to $105.6 billion in August. Exports rose $4.5 billion, or 1.4%, to $315.2 billion, while imports rose $17.2 billion, or 4.3%, to $420.8 billion. The real goods deficit increased 8.2% to $114.7 billion. July goods imports were revised up $4.4 billion; the headline data are seasonally adjusted but not price adjusted.
September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. July payroll growth was revised from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; together, the two prior months were revised down by 60,000. Labor-force participation was 61.8%, average hourly earnings increased 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year, and the average workweek was 34.4 hours. The September estimate is preliminary, and the reported payroll change was smaller than the statistical-significance threshold described by the reporting agency.
The September manufacturing diffusion index was 54.5, with production at 56.7, new orders at 55.3, order backlogs at 56.4, and employment at 52.7. Its prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9. Survey commentary was more cautious than the index readings, with 60% of comments categorized as negative and recurring concern about pricing volatility, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.
August nominal consumer spending rose 0.9% and real spending rose 0.6%. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income rose 0.3%, and the saving rate was 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% over the month and 3.4% over the year; excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year. These data incorporated an annual update with revisions extending back to 2021. The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was a 2.2% annualized increase after revised 2.5% growth in the first quarter.
## Policy, rates, energy, and markets
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Median participant projections for 2026 were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. Those projections are conditional individual assessments rather than a promised policy path.
On October 6, constant-maturity Treasury yields were 4.46% at one year, 4.79% at two years, 5.03% at five years, 5.27% at ten years, and 5.64% at thirty years. Compared with October 5, those yields were lower by 1, 5, 3, 4, and 2 basis points. The figures are interpolated from indicative bid quotations rather than transaction prices.
The October energy outlook raised the forecast fourth-quarter Brent crude average to $105 per barrel, $14 above the prior month's forecast. The forecast estimated September Middle East production shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day, down from 5.8 million in August, and projected global inventories to decline by another 0.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. September U.S. gasoline and diesel prices averaged $4.35 and $6.29 per gallon. The forecast inputs were completed October 1 and do not specifically incorporate later events; the publisher expects greater short-term volatility than the forecast path displays.
U.S. equities had divergent large- and small-cap closes on October 6. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 7,818.93, the Dow gained 0.5% to 51,521.28, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4% to 27,599.79, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.6% to 2,830.30. Official entry prices for this round are supplied separately in the frozen CapitalBench price file.
Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels in the week ending September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable week a year earlier. The next weekly report is scheduled inside the weekly horizon. Weekly inventory estimates are survey based and may be revised.
The European Central Bank raised its three key policy rates by 25 basis points in September, placing the deposit rate at 2.50%. Its baseline projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, while identifying upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
## Events within the horizons
Before the October 13 weekly exit, scheduled releases include minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting and weekly petroleum data on October 7, followed by August wholesale sales and inventories on October 8. October 12 is a federal holiday, and no BLS release is scheduled that day.
Before the November 6 monthly exit, the calendar also includes September CPI on October 14; September PPI and advance retail sales on October 15; import and export prices on October 16; housing starts on October 20; durable-goods orders and new-home sales on October 27; an FOMC meeting on October 27-28; advance third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29; and the Employment Cost Index on October 30. October manufacturing activity and September construction spending are scheduled for November 2, job openings for November 3, September trade and October services activity for November 4, preliminary productivity for November 5, and the October employment report at 08:30 ET on November 6 before the exit close.
The evidence available at the cutoff includes services and manufacturing indexes above 50, slower payroll growth and downward employment revisions, positive real consumption and GDP growth, elevated inflation and survey price readings, an increased official oil-price forecast, long Treasury yields above 5%, and divergent large- and small-cap performance on October 6. Scheduled release outcomes were unknown at the cutoff.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-06-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-06'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-07T03:45:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-07T03:45:04.183780+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the October 6, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
exit_rule: Use the November 6, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
entry_date: '2026-10-06'
exit_date: '2026-11-06'
created_at: '2026-10-07T03:45:04.183780+00:00'
notes: 'After-close decision round using the completed October 6 U.S. session as the entry date. Fresh direct-public-source research cutoff: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z.'# Market Briefing — October 6, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z. The latest completed U.S. session is Tuesday, October 6.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current macro picture
The September services diffusion index was 54.9, down 0.5 point from August and above the 50 expansion threshold for a 27th consecutive month. Business activity was 56.5, new orders 59.8, employment 50.1, and supplier deliveries 53.2. The services prices index rose 1.4 points to 74.0, its highest reading since July 2022. Backlogs increased to 56.6, while new export orders fell to 46.9. Diffusion indexes measure breadth and direction rather than the magnitude of output, and the supplier-deliveries index is inverted.
The U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit increased $12.7 billion to $105.6 billion in August. Exports rose $4.5 billion, or 1.4%, to $315.2 billion, while imports rose $17.2 billion, or 4.3%, to $420.8 billion. The real goods deficit increased 8.2% to $114.7 billion. July goods imports were revised up $4.4 billion; the headline data are seasonally adjusted but not price adjusted.
September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. July payroll growth was revised from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; together, the two prior months were revised down by 60,000. Labor-force participation was 61.8%, average hourly earnings increased 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year, and the average workweek was 34.4 hours. The September estimate is preliminary, and the reported payroll change was smaller than the statistical-significance threshold described by the reporting agency.
The September manufacturing diffusion index was 54.5, with production at 56.7, new orders at 55.3, order backlogs at 56.4, and employment at 52.7. Its prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9. Survey commentary was more cautious than the index readings, with 60% of comments categorized as negative and recurring concern about pricing volatility, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.
August nominal consumer spending rose 0.9% and real spending rose 0.6%. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income rose 0.3%, and the saving rate was 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% over the month and 3.4% over the year; excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year. These data incorporated an annual update with revisions extending back to 2021. The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was a 2.2% annualized increase after revised 2.5% growth in the first quarter.
## Policy, rates, energy, and markets
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Median participant projections for 2026 were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. Those projections are conditional individual assessments rather than a promised policy path.
On October 6, constant-maturity Treasury yields were 4.46% at one year, 4.79% at two years, 5.03% at five years, 5.27% at ten years, and 5.64% at thirty years. Compared with October 5, those yields were lower by 1, 5, 3, 4, and 2 basis points. The figures are interpolated from indicative bid quotations rather than transaction prices.
The October energy outlook raised the forecast fourth-quarter Brent crude average to $105 per barrel, $14 above the prior month's forecast. The forecast estimated September Middle East production shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day, down from 5.8 million in August, and projected global inventories to decline by another 0.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. September U.S. gasoline and diesel prices averaged $4.35 and $6.29 per gallon. The forecast inputs were completed October 1 and do not specifically incorporate later events; the publisher expects greater short-term volatility than the forecast path displays.
U.S. equities had divergent large- and small-cap closes on October 6. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 7,818.93, the Dow gained 0.5% to 51,521.28, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4% to 27,599.79, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.6% to 2,830.30. Official entry prices for this round are supplied separately in the frozen CapitalBench price file.
Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels in the week ending September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable week a year earlier. The next weekly report is scheduled inside the weekly horizon. Weekly inventory estimates are survey based and may be revised.
The European Central Bank raised its three key policy rates by 25 basis points in September, placing the deposit rate at 2.50%. Its baseline projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, while identifying upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
## Events within the horizons
Before the October 13 weekly exit, scheduled releases include minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting and weekly petroleum data on October 7, followed by August wholesale sales and inventories on October 8. October 12 is a federal holiday, and no BLS release is scheduled that day.
Before the November 6 monthly exit, the calendar also includes September CPI on October 14; September PPI and advance retail sales on October 15; import and export prices on October 16; housing starts on October 20; durable-goods orders and new-home sales on October 27; an FOMC meeting on October 27-28; advance third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29; and the Employment Cost Index on October 30. October manufacturing activity and September construction spending are scheduled for November 2, job openings for November 3, September trade and October services activity for November 4, preliminary productivity for November 5, and the October employment report at 08:30 ET on November 6 before the exit close.
The evidence available at the cutoff includes services and manufacturing indexes above 50, slower payroll growth and downward employment revisions, positive real consumption and GDP growth, elevated inflation and survey price readings, an increased official oil-price forecast, long Treasury yields above 5%, and divergent large- and small-cap performance on October 6. Scheduled release outcomes were unknown at the cutoff.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "c46ba581646ffee06167a6d20b89e0712e78f2bbccaacf2eb132e125756b2559",
"manifest.yaml": "1ccf5d76040a10f24ce4d9e81aca49007714361f28c8532ae85c921e651ba98f",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "d6d921ecb3c1c6dd6b9e5faa90d027eb0d619a56f1344b7964a6497cf612e0c0",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "a8338432597963fe2480c153ff8111f36e2c01389aa7875bd5c4c457d786f55a",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "33223afe413bdc5c79a2002c5c83482b8f608e4a31a3e075db1c19e89397472f",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "97c05820bfb788d6a7704c8e8ac0e9fd2e0ab6b24f7f7b0ef4303c5a25f493b1",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "87da9eb32beed941ee8ced519539d1446cd6917ec12f3e08e546875230ff796a",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "bbc2281ae7c9090834e5fd9da2e26bb300afdf1491151709d129b2612b0d18c2",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "b0cf9b835591ce66e32f658ea0a409637a6f58535c6e08290b08283733e9174a",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Ranked Energy first as a wildcard because the briefing supplies a specific $14 upward Brent forecast revision and ongoing inventory draws while XLE lagged oil and carries negative SPY beta into a catalyst-heavy window. Metals and Mining ranks second as the deepest pullback on the slate with strong manufacturing production and price readings and an already-begun rebound. Financials ranks third on the highest quality score, a shallow prior trend break, a steeper curve and earnings season. Taiwan and Cybersecurity are supported continuations but lack pullback support and are not overreaction candidates. Duration, defensive bonds, Solar, Defense and South Africa show persistent multi-window deterioration. Ethereum's parabolic move is uninvestable on a one-month close-to-close basis.
Macro is late-cycle hawkish: Fed hiking to 3.75-4.00%, 10y at 5.27%, 30y at 5.64%, services prices index at post-2022 high, manufacturing prices up 6.8 points, Brent forecast raised to $105, yet payrolls were only +29k with -60k revisions. Breadth is narrow (RSP minus SPY -4.09% over 21 sessions, only 32% of assets positive) with leadership concentrated in semis, cyber, Taiwan and an extreme crypto outlier. Rate pressure argues against duration and small caps; energy-linked and inflation-resilient equity and high-quality cyclicals that sold off on positioning rather than fundamentals have the best reversal odds, but the FOMC on Oct 27-28, CPI on Oct 14 and the Nov 6 jobs print inside the window keep the bar for beating SPY high.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oct 14 CPI or Oct 27-28 FOMC hawkish surprise could hit high-beta cyclicals like XME harder than SPY",
"Oil forecast inputs were completed Oct 1 and a de-escalation of Middle East shut-ins could reverse energy quickly",
"Narrow mega-cap tech leadership may persist, leaving SPY ahead of sector reversal candidates",
"Nov 6 payroll report prints before exit close and could reprice financials and small caps in either direction"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Official Q4 Brent forecast raised $14 to $105 with 4.8 mb/d Middle East shut-ins and projected 0.7 mb/d inventory draws",
"XLE 21-session active return -1.28% and prior 105-session active -9.89% despite USO up 2.08% over 21 sessions",
"XLE within 2.72% of 52-week high with negative SPY beta (-0.29), offering diversification into FOMC and CPI risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -10.10% with 0.985 pullback rank while 5-session return already rebounded +4.18%",
"Manufacturing index 54.5 with production 56.7, new orders 55.3 and prices index 77.9 support metals pricing power",
"Copper prior active +0.09% and 21s active only -1.21%, so the equity selloff exceeded the underlying commodity move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score on slate (0.759) with 0.910 pullback rank after -8.12% 21-session active return",
"Prior 105-session active return only -0.25%, so recent lag is positioning not trend break; 12.04% vol and 0.62 beta limit downside",
"Steepening yields (2y 4.79% vs 30y 5.64%) and Q3 earnings season inside window support bank net interest margins"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return +39.06% (rank 1.000) and only -0.33% from 52-week high",
"Semis SMH +10.14% active over 21 sessions confirms AI hardware leadership persists",
"Volume z -0.78 and 32.47% vol signal thinning participation and crowding risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"At 52-week high with +12.91% 21-session active and +27.96% prior active, volume z +0.48 rising participation",
"Pullback rank 0.015 means no mean-reversion support; extended into Q3 earnings season"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.743 with -6.48% 21-session active and prior active near flat (-0.61%)",
"Russell 2000 fell 0.6% on Oct 6 while S&P rose 0.6%; Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% and 5%+ long yields pressure small-cap financing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active +31.36% but 58.22% horizon vol, -21.94% max drawdown and -14.96% from 52-week high",
"Volume z -0.86 and beta 2.80 make it a high-variance semis proxy with weaker trend than Taiwan"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.742 with prior active +10.12% then -9.29% recent active and 0.970 pullback rank",
"Fed hiking and 10y at 5.27% raise biotech financing costs; XLV also -3.58% active suggests sector-wide not idiosyncratic pressure",
"5-session return -3.77% shows selling still in progress rather than a completed washout"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,818.93 on Oct 6, at 52-week high with 11.06% horizon vol",
"Benchmark; narrow breadth with RSP -4.09% vs SPY over 21 sessions"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -16.03% and recent active -8.99% with -18.16% drawdown, worst shallow-drawdown rank among slate (0.030)",
"Persistent downtrend across both windows and quality score 0.451 point to trend, not shock"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -12.55% on top of prior active -10.19%; gold -6.02% and silver down sharply over 21 sessions weigh on resource-heavy index",
"Dollar +2.92% over 21 sessions and Fed hiking cycle pressure EM currencies; 20.33% below 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 8.17 indicates forced flows; prior active -18.19% in a Fed hiking cycle with 10y at 5.27%",
"Low 4.38% vol caps upside versus equities even if yields stabilize"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.86 and -5.03% recent active; TLT -6.00% over 21 sessions shows duration still under pressure",
"Fed hike plus services prices index at 74.0 keep rate risk skewed against duration into Oct 14 CPI and Oct 27-28 FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -27.29% (rank 0.000), -39.94% from 52-week high, -22.94% drawdown, quality score 0.298",
"Rising rates (5y at 5.03%) hurt project financing; volume z -0.68 shows no capitulation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+200.25% 5-session return with 397% horizon vol and beta 3.12; prior active was -1.02% so no established trend",
"Bitcoin only +5.80% active over 21 sessions, so the move is idiosyncratic and parabolic with high reversal probability"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -45,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 40,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"ENERGY": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 30,
"METALS_MINING": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"METALS_MINING",
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro is late-cycle hawkish: Fed hiking to 3.75-4.00%, 10y at 5.27%, 30y at 5.64%, services prices index at post-2022 high, manufacturing prices up 6.8 points, Brent forecast raised to $105, yet payrolls were only +29k with -60k revisions. Breadth is narrow (RSP minus SPY -4.09% over 21 sessions, only 32% of assets positive) with leadership concentrated in semis, cyber, Taiwan and an extreme crypto outlier. Rate pressure argues against duration and small caps; energy-linked and inflation-resilient equity and high-quality cyclicals that sold off on positioning rather than fundamentals have the best reversal odds, but the FOMC on Oct 27-28, CPI on Oct 14 and the Nov 6 jobs print inside the window keep the bar for beating SPY high.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"METALS_MINING",
"FINANCIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Ranked Energy first as a wildcard because the briefing supplies a specific $14 upward Brent forecast revision and ongoing inventory draws while XLE lagged oil and carries negative SPY beta into a catalyst-heavy window. Metals and Mining ranks second as the deepest pullback on the slate with strong manufacturing production and price readings and an already-begun rebound. Financials ranks third on the highest quality score, a shallow prior trend break, a steeper curve and earnings season. Taiwan and Cybersecurity are supported continuations but lack pullback support and are not overreaction candidates. Duration, defensive bonds, Solar, Defense and South Africa show persistent multi-window deterioration. Ethereum's parabolic move is uninvestable on a one-month close-to-close basis.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro is late-cycle hawkish: Fed hiking to 3.75-4.00%, 10y at 5.27%, 30y at 5.64%, services prices index at post-2022 high, manufacturing prices up 6.8 points, Brent forecast raised to $105, yet payrolls were only +29k with -60k revisions. Breadth is narrow (RSP minus SPY -4.09% over 21 sessions, only 32% of assets positive) with leadership concentrated in semis, cyber, Taiwan and an extreme crypto outlier. Rate pressure argues against duration and small caps; energy-linked and inflation-resilient equity and high-quality cyclicals that sold off on positioning rather than fundamentals have the best reversal odds, but the FOMC on Oct 27-28, CPI on Oct 14 and the Nov 6 jobs print inside the window keep the bar for beating SPY high.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28410,
"latency_seconds": 53.84744302002946,
"output_tokens": 4617,
"total_tokens": 33027
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
No candidate shows a credible overreaction with at least a 55% probability of beating SPY. The losers reflect rate and dollar headwinds rather than temporary dislocation, and the winners lack independent catalysts. The deterministic rule should therefore leave the portfolio in SPY.
Narrow cap-weighted leadership. RSP lags SPY by 4.09% over 21 sessions and only 31.88% of assets were positive over 21 sessions. Long yields sit above 5%, the Fed is hiking with inflation elevated, and payrolls are weakening. That macro backdrop supports large-cap quality over rate-sensitive and cyclical pullbacks, so reversal edges are weak.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot CPI on Oct 14 or a hawkish FOMC on Oct 27-28 drives a broad selloff in which beta matters more than selection",
"A sharp rally in small caps and breadth catches up with the cap-weighted index",
"An oil spike toward the $105 Brent forecast rotates leadership toward energy",
"A soft October jobs report on Nov 6 moves markets just before the exit close"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; 21-session return 1.41%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return 12.91% over 21 sessions and 27.96% prior",
"At its 52-week high, with a positive volume z-score of 0.48"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return 10.12%, then -9.29% over 21 sessions",
"High yields are a headwind for financing-sensitive biotech"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return 39.06%",
"Beta 1.87 and volatility 32%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return -8.12% over 21 sessions; quality score 0.759",
"Beta 0.62 lags in large-cap rallies"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Russell 2000 fell 0.6% while the S&P 500 rose on Oct 6",
"Rates above 5% weigh on small caps"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volatility 58% and beta 2.8",
"21-session active return -2.71%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Return of 200% in one month with 397% volatility, a likely data anomaly or extreme move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -45,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 40,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return -10.10% over 21 sessions, but 5-session return +4.18%",
"Strong dollar is a headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return -16.03% and 21-session active return -8.99%; persistent weakness"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return -12.55% over 21 sessions; gold down 6% and dollar up"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return -27%; 40% below its 52-week high",
"Rates above 5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 8.17 during a rate selloff",
"Beta 0.09"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 4.86; Fed hiking and CPI due Oct 14"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Narrow cap-weighted leadership. RSP lags SPY by 4.09% over 21 sessions and only 31.88% of assets were positive over 21 sessions. Long yields sit above 5%, the Fed is hiking with inflation elevated, and payrolls are weakening. That macro backdrop supports large-cap quality over rate-sensitive and cyclical pullbacks, so reversal edges are weak.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SP500",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"BIOTECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No candidate shows a credible overreaction with at least a 55% probability of beating SPY. The losers reflect rate and dollar headwinds rather than temporary dislocation, and the winners lack independent catalysts. The deterministic rule should therefore leave the portfolio in SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Narrow cap-weighted leadership. RSP lags SPY by 4.09% over 21 sessions and only 31.88% of assets were positive over 21 sessions. Long yields sit above 5%, the Fed is hiking with inflation elevated, and payrolls are weakening. That macro backdrop supports large-cap quality over rate-sensitive and cyclical pullbacks, so reversal edges are weak.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28410,
"latency_seconds": 36.670134489948396,
"output_tokens": 3019,
"total_tokens": 31429
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets high-quality sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks, interpreting them as overreactions. BIOTECH, FINANCIALS, and SMALL_VALUE all show strong quality scores and negative recent active returns, offering potential for reversal.
The market shows mixed signals with positive GDP and consumption growth but cautious manufacturing and downward payroll revisions. Long Treasury yields are elevated, and there is a divergence between large and small caps.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued divergence between large and small caps could hurt SMALL_VALUE.",
"Elevated long Treasury yields could pressure equity valuations, particularly in growth-sensitive sectors like BIOTECH."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.77% with a high quality score of 0.742.",
"Prior active return was 10.12%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -8.12% with a high quality score of 0.759.",
"Long Treasury yields are above 5%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -6.48% with a quality score of 0.743.",
"Divergent large- and small-cap performance on October 6."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -12.55%.",
"Prior active return of -10.19%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -10.10%.",
"Prior active return of -9.02%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -8.99%.",
"Prior active return of -16.03%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -8.98%.",
"Prior active return of -27.29%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of 3.43%.",
"Prior active return of 39.06%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -2.71%.",
"Prior active return of 31.36%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of 12.91%.",
"Prior active return of 27.96%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of 227.37%.",
"Horizon vol of 397.26%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 8.17.",
"Recent active return of -4.30%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 4.86.",
"Recent active return of -5.03%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market shows mixed signals with positive GDP and consumption growth but cautious manufacturing and downward payroll revisions. Long Treasury yields are elevated, and there is a divergence between large and small caps.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks, interpreting them as overreactions. BIOTECH, FINANCIALS, and SMALL_VALUE all show strong quality scores and negative recent active returns, offering potential for reversal.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market shows mixed signals with positive GDP and consumption growth but cautious manufacturing and downward payroll revisions. Long Treasury yields are elevated, and there is a divergence between large and small caps.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19584,
"latency_seconds": 24.78524658404058,
"output_tokens": 2992,
"total_tokens": 22576
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Energy ranks first on an independent near-term supply catalyst, but its supported-continuation classification makes it ineligible under the fixed reversal rule. Financials and biotechnology narrowly qualify as selective overreaction candidates; their sharp relative setbacks contrast with substantially stronger prior trends. Small value and the other losers lack sufficient evidence to clear the eligibility threshold, leaving the remaining slot to SPY. Confidence in the reversal judgments is modest.
Cross-sectional divergence is large, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing and Ethereum is an extreme outlier. Expanding activity and positive real spending argue against indiscriminate recession positioning, while elevated prices, a recent Fed hike and weak employment constrain broad risk taking. Selective pullback reversals are more credible than buying every laggard; energy has independent supply support. The October inflation releases, FOMC meeting and November 6 employment report can materially change leadership before the exit.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October inflation releases or the October 27-28 FOMC meeting could reinforce tightening expectations and extend biotechnology and financial-sector losses.",
"The November 6 employment report arrives before the exit close; renewed labor deterioration could overwhelm financials' reversal case.",
"Middle East supply restoration or demand weakness could reverse the oil-price support behind the top-ranked energy judgment.",
"Quality scores are constructed from price history, not business fundamentals; unreported sector deterioration could make apparent overreactions persistent.",
"Ethereum's extreme reported return and volatility, plus the missing dispersion statistic, reduce confidence in cross-sectional tail calibration."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"The fourth-quarter Brent forecast increased $14 to $105, with projected inventory declines of 0.7 million barrels per day.",
"September Middle East production shut-ins remained 4.8 million barrels per day.",
"The slate misses this direct supply catalyst; ENERGY rose 3.59% over five sessions but still lagged SPY by 1.28 points over 21 sessions."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -8.12% versus a nearly flat -0.25% prior active return; quality evidence score was 0.759.",
"Services and manufacturing remained expansionary, and real consumer spending increased 0.6%.",
"The upward-sloping Treasury curve offers a potential offset to funding and credit risks, but payroll weakness limits conviction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -9.29% sharply reversed prior active strength of 10.12%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.742, although it is a price-derived measure rather than balance-sheet evidence.",
"The 11% drawdown and modest 0.17 volume z-score support a tentative reversal test; no specific adverse biotechnology event is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Manufacturing production of 56.7 and new orders of 55.3 provide demand support.",
"Recent and prior active returns were both negative, at -10.10% and -9.02%, weakening the temporary-dislocation case.",
"Volatility was 35.82%, with a 15.75% drawdown and negative volume z-score."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.743, with recent active return of -6.48% versus prior active return of -0.61%.",
"Volatility of 10.80% is comparatively restrained.",
"The Fed hike, weak payroll growth and October 6 small-cap underperformance provide plausible economic reasons for the discount."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 1.41% over 21 sessions while equal-weight equities lost 2.68%.",
"SPY volatility was 11.06% and its drawdown was 3.38%; benchmark-relative return is identically zero."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active strength of 39.06% and recent active strength of 3.43% are substantial but have no supplied semiconductor-specific catalyst.",
"The fund was only 0.33% below its high, with 32.47% volatility and a negative volume z-score.",
"Manufacturing commentary identified trade-policy and geopolitical disruption risks."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 12.91% after prior active strength of 27.96%.",
"Positive volume z-score of 0.48 confirms participation, not a fundamental catalyst.",
"The fund was at its high with 32.92% volatility; no independent cybersecurity demand or earnings evidence is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 31.36% contrasts with a recent -2.71% active return.",
"Volatility was 58.22%, beta was 2.80 and drawdown was 21.94%.",
"Negative volume z-score of -0.86 and absent country-specific catalysts leave the pullback insufficiently explained."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 8.99% followed a prior active loss of 16.03%.",
"Drawdown was 18.16%, and quality evidence score was only 0.451.",
"Geopolitical disruption is present, but no defense orders, budget changes or delivery catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -12.55% extends prior underperformance of -10.19%.",
"The fund was 20.33% below its high, without elevated volume indicating a clear capitulation event.",
"The dollar gained 2.92% over 21 sessions, a potential headwind for dollar-denominated international equity returns."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score was unusually high at 8.17, but supplied evidence does not identify forced selling or a flow reversal.",
"Recent active return was -4.30%, with low volatility of 4.38%.",
"Elevated inflation and the September Fed hike provide a fundamental reason for duration pressure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score was 4.86, while recent active return was -5.03%.",
"Ten-year Treasury yields were 5.27%, and services prices reached 74.0.",
"Weak employment could support duration, but no mortgage-spread dislocation evidence is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 8.98% followed a prior active loss of 27.29%; quality evidence score was 0.298.",
"The fund was 39.94% below its high with a 22.94% drawdown.",
"The Fed hike and long yields above 5% worsen financing conditions; no offsetting solar-specific catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The reported five-session gain was 200.25%, with 227.37% recent active return and 397.26% volatility.",
"Prior active return was -1.02% and volume z-score was only 0.06.",
"No network, regulatory or flow catalyst is supplied to explain the extreme movement; it warrants unusually wide uncertainty rather than extrapolation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -55,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 65,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"BIOTECH"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Cross-sectional divergence is large, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing and Ethereum is an extreme outlier. Expanding activity and positive real spending argue against indiscriminate recession positioning, while elevated prices, a recent Fed hike and weak employment constrain broad risk taking. Selective pullback reversals are more credible than buying every laggard; energy has independent supply support. The October inflation releases, FOMC meeting and November 6 employment report can materially change leadership before the exit.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"FINANCIALS",
"BIOTECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy ranks first on an independent near-term supply catalyst, but its supported-continuation classification makes it ineligible under the fixed reversal rule. Financials and biotechnology narrowly qualify as selective overreaction candidates; their sharp relative setbacks contrast with substantially stronger prior trends. Small value and the other losers lack sufficient evidence to clear the eligibility threshold, leaving the remaining slot to SPY. Confidence in the reversal judgments is modest.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Cross-sectional divergence is large, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing and Ethereum is an extreme outlier. Expanding activity and positive real spending argue against indiscriminate recession positioning, while elevated prices, a recent Fed hike and weak employment constrain broad risk taking. Selective pullback reversals are more credible than buying every laggard; energy has independent supply support. The October inflation releases, FOMC meeting and November 6 employment report can materially change leadership before the exit.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16247,
"latency_seconds": 52.06728258397197,
"output_tokens": 3498,
"reasoning_tokens": 68,
"total_tokens": 19745
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Top three candidates show quality scores above 0.74 with recent active pullbacks labeled overreaction and p_beat_spy at or above 55 percent.
Services and manufacturing diffusion above 50 with positive real GDP and consumption growth offset by weak payrolls, downward revisions, elevated price indexes, and divergent large-small cap closes.
{
"confidence": 0.5833,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"payroll revisions and weak employment data",
"elevated services and manufacturing price indexes",
"divergent large-small cap performance",
"scheduled CPI PPI and FOMC events within horizon"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.742",
"recent active -9.29",
"prior active 10.12"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.759",
"recent active -8.12",
"low horizon vol 12.04"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.743",
"recent active -6.48",
"shallow drawdown -7.53"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 12.91",
"prior active 27.96",
"volume z 0.48"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 3.43",
"prior active 39.06",
"distance to 52w high -0.33"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent return 1.95",
"horizon vol 11.06",
"max drawdown -3.38"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.566",
"recent active -10.10",
"prior active -9.02"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 8.17",
"horizon vol 4.38",
"recent active -4.30"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 4.86",
"horizon vol 5.56",
"recent active -5.03"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.565",
"recent active -12.55",
"prior active -10.19"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.451",
"recent active -8.99",
"max drawdown -18.16"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.298",
"recent active -8.98",
"max drawdown -22.94"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.563",
"recent active -2.71",
"horizon vol 58.22"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.410",
"horizon vol 397.26",
"recent active 227.37"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -25,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Services and manufacturing diffusion above 50 with positive real GDP and consumption growth offset by weak payrolls, downward revisions, elevated price indexes, and divergent large-small cap closes.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top three candidates show quality scores above 0.74 with recent active pullbacks labeled overreaction and p_beat_spy at or above 55 percent.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Services and manufacturing diffusion above 50 with positive real GDP and consumption growth offset by weak payrolls, downward revisions, elevated price indexes, and divergent large-small cap closes.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16487,
"latency_seconds": 23.342156665981747,
"output_tokens": 2080,
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}
}xai-grok-4-5
Quality-pullback names with deep recent underperformance, solid quality scores, and contained vol offer the clearest overreaction edge vs SPY; most slate continuations and bonds lack sufficient one-month catalyst support amid high rates and inflation, so prefer_spy diagnostic is true while still ranking the three eligible overreaction candidates first.
Elevated inflation readings, Fed hike to 3.75-4%, long yields >5%, soft payrolls with revisions, and oil forecast hike create mixed one-month setup; large-cap strength vs small-cap/equal-weight lag and high cross-sectional dispersion favor selective quality pullbacks over pure continuation or extreme crypto.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further Fed hawkishness or higher-than-expected CPI/PPI could extend rate pressure and delay financials/small-value rebound",
"Oil price spike persistence from Middle East shut-ins may raise input costs and volatility without helping pure equity pullbacks",
"High dispersion and soft payrolls raise recession-scare risk that hits beta>1 names harder than SPY",
"Biotech clinical/financing sensitivity could convert pullback into continued deterioration if risk appetite fades"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.759 with recent pullback rank 0.910",
"active_return_21s -8.12% after near-flat prior",
"horizon vol 12.04% and max drawdown -8.49% relatively contained"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.742 with prior active rank 0.896 and pullback rank 0.970",
"active_return_21s -9.29% after +10.12% prior",
"SPY beta near 1.03 and distance to 52w high -11%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.743",
"active_return_21s -6.48% with low horizon vol 10.80%",
"Russell 2000 fell 0.6% on Oct 6 while SPX rose 0.6%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -10.10% with quality score 0.566 and pullback rank 0.985",
"return_5s +4.18% bounce",
"elevated oil/commodities backdrop but high 35.82% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s -8.99% after prior -16.03%",
"quality pullback rank 0.955",
"horizon max drawdown -18.16% indicates residual risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s -12.55% with recent pullback rank 1.000",
"quality score 0.565",
"high beta 1.62 and -20.33% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +39.06% and active_21s +3.43%",
"near 52w high (-0.33%)",
"high vol 32.47% and beta 1.87"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +12.91% and prior +27.96%",
"at 52w high",
"quality score only 0.493 with low pullback rank"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark with return_5s +1.95%",
"horizon vol 11.06% and shallow drawdown -3.38%",
"large-cap leadership vs lagging RSP"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +31.36% but active_21s -2.71%",
"extreme vol 58.22% and beta 2.80",
"distance to high -14.96%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active -27.29% and quality score 0.298",
"distance to 52w high -39.94%",
"high vol 34.90% despite recent +2.23%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 8.17 extreme",
"active_21s -4.30% with low vol 4.38%",
"rates still elevated with 10y at 5.27%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 4.86",
"active_21s -5.03% and prior -17.62%",
"duration pressure from Fed hike and long yields >5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"return_5s +200.25% and active_21s +227.37% extreme",
"vol 397% and quality 0.410",
"low SPY corr 0.20 but mean-reversion risk dominant over one month"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -25,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"BIOTECH",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Elevated inflation readings, Fed hike to 3.75-4%, long yields >5%, soft payrolls with revisions, and oil forecast hike create mixed one-month setup; large-cap strength vs small-cap/equal-weight lag and high cross-sectional dispersion favor selective quality pullbacks over pure continuation or extreme crypto.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"BIOTECH",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Quality-pullback names with deep recent underperformance, solid quality scores, and contained vol offer the clearest overreaction edge vs SPY; most slate continuations and bonds lack sufficient one-month catalyst support amid high rates and inflation, so prefer_spy diagnostic is true while still ranking the three eligible overreaction candidates first.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Elevated inflation readings, Fed hike to 3.75-4%, long yields >5%, soft payrolls with revisions, and oil forecast hike create mixed one-month setup; large-cap strength vs small-cap/equal-weight lag and high cross-sectional dispersion favor selective quality pullbacks over pure continuation or extreme crypto.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17490,
"latency_seconds": 43.698951122001745,
"output_tokens": 3007,
"reasoning_tokens": 15,
"total_tokens": 20512
}
}xai-grok-4-6
One-month edge is a quality-relative bounce in FINANCIALS, BIOTECH, and SMALL_VALUE after 21-session underperformance versus an index at highs, not chase of high-vol continuation or duration. Inflation, the September hike, and the CPI/FOMC/GDP cluster still favor defaulting unused slots to SPY under the eligibility rule.
SPY is at a 52-week high with large-cap outperformance versus equal-weight and small caps, while inflation prints, survey prices, and a September hike keep duration and high-beta risk elevated into a dense data/FOMC calendar. Quality pullbacks in financials, biotech, and small value look more like temporary relative overshoots than confirmed deterioration; many shock names remain high-vol with weak quality.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September CPI, PCE, and the Oct 27-28 FOMC can extend large-cap leadership if inflation stays sticky",
"Payrolls of +29k with downward revisions can hit small-value and financials if growth fears dominate rates",
"High-vol EM, mining, solar, and crypto tails can reverse independently of the quality-pullback thesis"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active return -8.12% with quality evidence score 0.759 and recent pullback rank 0.910",
"Horizon vol 12.04% and beta 0.62 versus SPY, shallower than most shock names",
"10y yield 5.27% after a 25 bp hike; sector is a quality pullback not a 52w-high continuation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +10.12% then 21s active -9.29% with quality score 0.742 and pullback rank 0.970",
"SPY corr 0.47 and beta ~1.03, so the lag is not purely beta to the index high",
"5s return -3.77% while SPY +1.95% after a quality-defined pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active -6.48% with quality score 0.743, pullback rank 0.776, and vol 10.80%",
"Russell 2000 fell 0.6% on Oct 6 while S&P 500 gained 0.6%",
"Distance to 52w high -6.24% versus SPY at 0.00%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active -12.55% and recent pullback rank 1.000 with 52w distance -20.33%",
"Horizon vol 27.04% and beta 1.62 raise one-month miss risk versus SPY",
"Quality score 0.565 is mid-pack, not a high-quality US factor pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active -8.99% and prior active -16.03% with pullback rank 0.955",
"Max drawdown -18.16% and quality score 0.451",
"Vol 19.69% with SPY corr 0.57"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active -10.10% with recent pullback rank 0.985",
"Horizon vol 35.82%, beta 1.77, drawdown -15.75%",
"5s return +4.18% already retraced part of the shock"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -27.29%, 52w distance -39.94%, quality score 0.298",
"Vol 34.90%, beta 1.93, max drawdown -22.94%",
"Manufacturing comments cited pricing, trade, and geopolitics; solar quality ranks are the weakest on the slate"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +39.06% and 21s active +3.43% with 52w distance -0.33%",
"Vol 32.47% and beta 1.87 versus SPY at the index high",
"Medium-strength lane without a quality pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active +12.91% and prior active +27.96% at 0.00% from 52w high",
"Quality score 0.493 with recent pullback rank 0.015",
"Vol 32.92% after a 6.04% 5s move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +31.36% but 21s active -2.71% and vol 58.22%",
"Beta 2.80 and max drawdown -21.94%",
"Distance to 52w high -14.96% after extreme prior strength"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5s +1.95% at 0.00% from 52w high with vol 11.06% and drawdown -3.38%",
"RSP 21s lag -4.09% versus SPY shows concentrated large-cap leadership",
"Fed hike, PCE 3.4% y/y, and a full CPI/FOMC/GDP calendar sit inside the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 8.17 with 21s active -4.30% and vol 4.38%",
"10y yield 5.27% after a 25 bp hike; duration is a headwind versus equity beta",
"Quality score 0.423"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.86 with 21s active -5.03% and prior active -17.62%",
"Beta 0.15 versus SPY; TLT 21s -6.00% confirms duration pressure",
"Quality score 0.472"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Reported 5s return 200.25% and 21s active 227.37% with vol 397.26%",
"Quality score 0.410, recent pullback rank 0.000, corr to SPY 0.20",
"No independent in-window fundamental support beyond the price spike itself"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -40,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 25,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"BIOTECH",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is at a 52-week high with large-cap outperformance versus equal-weight and small caps, while inflation prints, survey prices, and a September hike keep duration and high-beta risk elevated into a dense data/FOMC calendar. Quality pullbacks in financials, biotech, and small value look more like temporary relative overshoots than confirmed deterioration; many shock names remain high-vol with weak quality.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"BIOTECH",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "One-month edge is a quality-relative bounce in FINANCIALS, BIOTECH, and SMALL_VALUE after 21-session underperformance versus an index at highs, not chase of high-vol continuation or duration. Inflation, the September hike, and the CPI/FOMC/GDP cluster still favor defaulting unused slots to SPY under the eligibility rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is at a 52-week high with large-cap outperformance versus equal-weight and small caps, while inflation prints, survey prices, and a September hike keep duration and high-beta risk elevated into a dense data/FOMC calendar. Quality pullbacks in financials, biotech, and small value look more like temporary relative overshoots than confirmed deterioration; many shock names remain high-vol with weak quality.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17632,
"latency_seconds": 55.41213833296206,
"output_tokens": 2771,
"reasoning_tokens": 582,
"total_tokens": 20985
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Energy Sector (XLE)35%Metals and Mining (XME)35%Financials Sector (XLF)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Biotechnology (XBI)35%Financials Sector (XLF)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%Biotechnology (XBI)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Biotechnology (XBI)35%Financials Sector (XLF)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%Biotechnology (XBI)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%Biotechnology (XBI)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-06 | 208.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-06 | 89.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-06 | 28.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-06 | 28.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-06 | 127.20 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-06 | 150.90 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-06 | 48.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-06 | 43.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-06 | 67.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-06 | 19.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-06 | 59.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-06 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-06 | 52.22 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-06 | 111.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-06 | 111.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-06 | 81.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-06 | 40.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-06 | 144.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-06 | 108.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-06 | 71.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-06 | 90.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-06 | 60.62 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-06 | 63.75 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-06 | 212.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-06 | 60.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-06 | 103.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-06 | 86.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-06 | 54.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-06 | 78.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-06 | 167.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-06 | 77.27 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-06 | 46.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-06 | 171.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-06 | 89.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-06 | 46.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-06 | 102.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-06 | 99.32 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-06 | 57.93 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-06 | 77.28 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-06 | 49.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-06 | 108.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-06 | 72.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-06 | 101.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-06 | 759.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-06 | 41.10 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-06 | 70.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-06 | 779.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-06 | 632.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-06 | 91.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-06 | 55.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-06 | 111.16 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-06 | 44.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-06 | 63.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-06 | 186.40 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-06 | 117.61 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-06 | 202.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-06 | 382.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-06 | 104.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-06 | 46.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-06 | 94.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-06 | 32.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-06 | 28.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-06 | 129.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-06 | 251.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-06 | 71.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-06 | 74.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-06 | 324.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-06 | 281.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-06 | 212.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-06 | 41.16 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | c46ba581646f...756b2559 |
| manifest.yaml | 1ccf5d76040a...651ba98f |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | d6d921ecb3c1...f612e0c0 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | a83384325979...d786f55a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 33223afe413b...9397472f |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 97c05820bfb7...25f493b1 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 87da9eb32bee...30ff796a |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | bbc2281ae7c9...2b0d18c2 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |