AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Risk-seeking 67.3/100 As of July 15, 2026. Inflation-sensitive risk taking Model Agreement Tight 2.7 point dispersion Insight Models missed the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Ethereum ETF (ETHA) at +10.76%. 0 of 7 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position Crude Oil 19.0% 8 models hold USO Biggest Shift Semiconductors down 10.6 pp vs prior weekly round Open Portfolio Leader Grok 4.3 currently leads at -0.2% interim result, not yet scored Latest Weekly Gemini 3.1 Pro led 4.6% vs S&P 1.3% Full Weekly History Grok 4.5 leads score 23.7 across 1/28
Data Prices Jul 15 67/67 audited

One-week rounds

All Available Weekly History

Context across every resolved one-week round. Fair model-vs-model rankings use equal-run comparison sets.

Weekly track

Full-History Weekly Scores

Resolved weekly rounds only.

28 resolved rounds compared4 full-history models ranked3 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-07-08-1W
All resolved rounds

Full-History Model Scores

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3
Claude Opus 4.7
GPT-5.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3 xAI · 28/28 scored rounds
-1.7
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 28/28 scored rounds
-4.3
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 28/28 scored rounds
-8.4
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 28/28 scored rounds
-10.1
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 28/28 scored rounds
1.5
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
28 resolved rounds compared4 full-history models ranked3 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-07-08-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.3
-0.15%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
-0.39%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
-0.75%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
-0.90%
S&P S&P 500
0.14%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
8.93%
Not ranked yet Short-history models

Shown for transparency; not included in the main ranking until they have all 28 completed rounds.

xAI
Grok 4.5 xAI · short history · 1/28 scored rounds
Score (1/28)
23.7
Avg return
2.55%
Anthropic
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · short history · 8/28 scored rounds
Score (8/28)
5.1
Avg return
0.52%
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · short history · 26/28 scored rounds
Score (26/28)
-5.1
Avg return
-0.45%
Short history: models missing resolved rounds are shown but cannot lead the full-history score.
Scope

What This Scorecard Includes

This all-history view can include unequal model histories. Use Benchmark Comparison Sets for the fair headline ranking where every model has the exact same included rounds.

Compare cohorts Comparison sets