AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Risk-seeking 77.6/100 As of October 28, 2026. Broad risk seeking Model Agreement Mixed 5.7 point dispersion Insight Models missed the monthly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Ethereum ETF (ETHA) at +152.31%. 0 of 7 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position S&P 500 36.2% 5 models hold SPY Biggest Shift S&P 500 down 56.7 pp vs prior weekly round Open Portfolio Leader Gemini 3.1 Pro currently leads at 0.7% interim result, not yet scored Latest Weekly Gemini 4 Argon led 0.1% vs S&P -0.6% Full Weekly History Gemini 4 Argon leads score 17.6 across 2/80
Data Prices Nov 3 164/164 audited

Compare model groups

How Did the AI Model Results Change?

See which models moved, why the results changed, and which ranking has enough completed rounds to rely on.

Choose two groups

Which results do you want to compare?

A round is one timed market test. A model group uses only rounds completed by every model being ranked together.

Bottom line

What changed?

GPT-6 Astra ranks first in both groups. The groups have no completed rounds in common. Sep 28 Weekly includes 6 more rounds, while Oct 19 Weekly includes 2 more rounds. Gemini 4 Argon appears only in Oct 19 Weekly. Grok 4.3, Gemini 3.1 Pro appear only in Sep 28 Weekly.

Main resultsSep 28 Weekly6 rounds completed by all 7 modelsEarly resultsOct 19 Weekly2 rounds completed by all 6 models
Models in both groups51 only in Oct 19 Weekly; 2 only in Sep 28 Weekly
Rounds used by both0Sep 28 Weekly has 6 more; Oct 19 Weekly has 2 more
Did the order change?Changed a littleBased on models in both groups
Did the top model change?No2 of 3 stayed in the top three
Model by model

How did each model's result change?

Each group uses all of its completed rounds. Models that appear in only one group are marked clearly.

Sep 28 Weekly#1GPT-6 AstraOpenAIOct 19 Weekly#1No change
Sep 28 WeeklyNot includedGemini 4 ArgonOnly in Oct 19 WeeklyOct 19 Weekly#2Added
Sep 28 Weekly#2Claude Opus 5 5AnthropicOct 19 Weekly#3Down 1
Sep 28 Weekly#4Claude Fable 5.1AnthropicOct 19 Weekly#4No change
Sep 28 Weekly#5Grok 4.3Only in Sep 28 WeeklyOct 19 WeeklyNot includedNot included
Sep 28 Weekly#6Grok 4.5xAIOct 19 Weekly#5Up 1
Sep 28 Weekly#3Grok 4.6xAIOct 19 Weekly#6Down 3
Sep 28 Weekly#7Gemini 3.1 ProOnly in Sep 28 WeeklyOct 19 WeeklyNot includedNot included
Fair comparison

Did both groups use the same rounds?

0 completed rounds are used by both groups. Sep 28 Weekly also uses 6 other rounds. Oct 19 Weekly also uses 2 other rounds. Different rounds can change scores and ranks.

0 used by both6 only in Sep 28 Weekly2 only in Oct 19 Weekly
GPT-6 AstraOverall score on 0 shared roundsn/aOverall score on 6 other Sep 28 Weekly rounds-0.1Overall score on all 6 Sep 28 Weekly rounds-0.1
Claude Opus 5 5Overall score on 0 shared roundsn/aOverall score on 6 other Sep 28 Weekly rounds-0.8Overall score on all 6 Sep 28 Weekly rounds-0.8
Claude Fable 5.1Overall score on 0 shared roundsn/aOverall score on 6 other Sep 28 Weekly rounds-2.6Overall score on all 6 Sep 28 Weekly rounds-2.6
Grok 4.5Overall score on 0 shared roundsn/aOverall score on 6 other Sep 28 Weekly rounds-3.0Overall score on all 6 Sep 28 Weekly rounds-3.0
Grok 4.6Overall score on 0 shared roundsn/aOverall score on 6 other Sep 28 Weekly rounds-1.5Overall score on all 6 Sep 28 Weekly rounds-1.5
See exactly which rounds were used

Used by both: None

Only in Sep 28 Weekly: CB-2026-09-28-1W, CB-2026-10-01-1W, CB-2026-10-04-1W, CB-2026-10-06-1W, CB-2026-10-10-1W, CB-2026-10-12-1W

Only in Oct 19 Weekly: CB-2026-10-19-1W, CB-2026-10-22-1W

Were any Oct 19 Weekly rounds left out?

No. Every possible Oct 19 Weekly round had a result from every model in the group.

What this means

Which results should you rely on?

Use Sep 28 Weekly as the more reliable ranking because it has 6 completed rounds. Oct 19 Weekly has 2 and needs 4 more before it has enough evidence to become the main ranking.

Open Sep 28 WeeklyOpen Oct 19 Weekly
All results

What are all the numbers?

ModelIncluded inSep 28 Weekly rankOct 19 Weekly rankChangeSep 28 Weekly overall scoreOct 19 Weekly overall scoreOverall score change
GPT-6 AstraOpenAIBoth groups#1#1No change-0.118.2+18.3
Gemini 4 ArgonGoogleOnly Oct 19 Weekly—#2Addedn/a17.6n/a
Claude Opus 5 5AnthropicBoth groups#2#3Down 1-0.815.1+16.0
Claude Fable 5.1AnthropicBoth groups#4#4No change-2.614.6+17.1
Grok 4.3xAIOnly Sep 28 Weekly#5—Not included-2.6n/an/a
Grok 4.5xAIBoth groups#6#5Up 1-3.014.6+17.6
Grok 4.6xAIBoth groups#3#6Down 3-1.514.6+16.0
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogleOnly Sep 28 Weekly#7—Not included-4.3n/an/a