Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 62.4 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +47.86% to real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +42.14%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Energy Sector (XLE) is the largest aggregate allocation at +29.29%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-21 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-20260723-1m
35,920 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Energy Sector (XLE)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-23-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-23
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-24T03:06:13Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-24T09:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-23
- Exit date: 2026-08-21
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 23, 2026 as the one-month entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, August 21, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, the closest prior trading close to Sunday, August 23, and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Entry Briefing — July 23, 2026 Close
Research cutoff: July 24, 2026 at 03:06:13 UTC. Facts and scheduled statuses first published after that cutoff are excluded.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and participation
Associated Press reported these July 23 closes:
- S&P 500: 7,408.30, down 1.2%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,711.65, down 1.0%.
- Nasdaq Composite: 25,137.69, down 2.2%.
- Russell 2000: 2,940.16, down 0.7%.
For the week through July 23, AP reported the S&P 500 down 0.7%, the Dow down 0.8%, the Nasdaq down 1.5%, and the Russell 2000 down 0.7%. For 2026 through that close, the respective changes were +8.2%, +7.6%, +8.2%, and +18.5%.
Reuters reported that four of the S&P 500's 11 industry sectors advanced on July 23. NYSE declining issues outnumbered advancing issues by 2.99 to 1, with 82 new highs and 354 new lows.
AP reported July 23 declines of 14.5% for Tesla, 7.1% for Alphabet, 8.4% for American Airlines, and 6.2% for Southwest Airlines after company results. It reported France's CAC 40 down 1.6% and South Korea's Kospi up 4.4%.
## Energy, fuel, and rates
AP reported Brent crude settled July 23 at $100.69 per barrel, up 7% for the session, after reaching $102 intraday. Brent had traded below $72 early in July. AP placed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.69%, versus 4.67% late July 22 and 3.97% immediately before the war referenced in its report. AAA's national average gasoline price was $4.09 per gallon, versus $3.93 one month earlier and about $4.56 at a May high.
For the week ended July 17, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported:
- Commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million, 6% below the 2021–2025 average.
- Gasoline inventories rose 0.8 million barrels and distillate inventories rose 1.4 million barrels.
- Total commercial petroleum inventories rose 11.6 million barrels.
- Refinery capacity utilization was 96.1%.
- Four-week total product supplied averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, down 1% from a year earlier.
EIA inventory figures are weekly survey estimates. Product supplied is a demand proxy rather than direct consumption.
## U.S. labor, inflation, and activity
The U.S. Department of Labor reported seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims of 187,000 for the week ended July 18, down 22,000 from the prior week's revised 209,000. The four-week average was 207,500, down 7,250 from the prior revised average. The release identified upward revisions of 1,000 to the prior weekly level and 500 to the prior average.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June nonfarm payroll growth of 57,000, a 4.2% unemployment rate, a 61.5% labor-force participation rate, and 3.5% year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings. April and May payroll gains were revised down by a combined 74,000.
BLS reported that June CPI fell 0.4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and rose 3.5% over 12 months on an unadjusted basis. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and up 2.6% over 12 months.
BLS reported that June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and rose 5.5% over 12 months on an unadjusted basis. Final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% for the month and 5.1% over 12 months.
The Census Bureau estimated June retail and food-services sales at $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The published sampling intervals were plus or minus 0.4 percentage point for the monthly change and 0.5 point for the annual change. The estimates are not adjusted for price changes.
The Federal Reserve reported June industrial production rose 0.1% and was 1.1% above June 2025. Total-industry capacity utilization was 76.1%.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million, up 19.0% from May. Housing estimates are subject to sampling error and revision.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis' third estimate placed first-quarter real GDP growth at a 2.1% annualized rate, following 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The Q1 estimate was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate.
## Monetary-policy status
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 on June 17 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Its July 28–29 meeting had not occurred by the research cutoff.
The European Central Bank left its key rates unchanged on July 23: 2.25% for the deposit facility, 2.40% for main refinancing operations, and 2.65% for the marginal lending facility. The ECB stated that energy prices were highly volatile, near its June baseline, and well above pre-conflict levels; it also stated that the full inflation effect had yet to pass through. The ECB reiterated a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach without a preset rate path. APP and PEPP portfolios continued to decline because principal payments were not being reinvested.
The Bank of England had maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 7–2 vote in June. Its next decision and Monetary Policy Report were scheduled for July 30.
## July 23 corporate release
RTX reported unaudited second-quarter sales of $24.708 billion, up 14% from a year earlier; net income of $2.139 billion and diluted EPS of $1.57, both up 29%; and adjusted EPS of $1.89, up 21%. It reported operating cash flow of $3.547 billion and company-defined non-GAAP free cash flow of $2.878 billion. Segment sales were $8.210 billion for Collins Aerospace, $8.889 billion for Pratt & Whitney, and $8.269 billion for Raytheon.
Adjusted measures are company-defined non-GAAP figures, and the results were unaudited.
## Events scheduled through the July 30 weekly close
- July 24, 10:00 a.m. ET: Census Bureau June new-home sales.
- July 27, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census Bureau June durable-goods report.
- July 28, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census Bureau June advance economic indicators.
- July 28–29: Federal Open Market Committee meeting; statement July 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- July 28, after the close: Visa fiscal third-quarter results; webcast at 5:00 p.m. ET.
- July 29, after the close: Microsoft fiscal fourth-quarter results; webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET.
- July 29, after the close: Qualcomm fiscal third-quarter results.
- July 30, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA advance second-quarter GDP and June Personal Income and Outlays.
- July 30, 12:00 p.m. London time: Bank of England policy announcement, minutes, and Monetary Policy Report; press conference at 1:00 p.m. London time.
- July 30: first day of the Bank of Japan's two-day policy meeting.
Amazon scheduled its second-quarter conference call for July 30 at 5:00 p.m. ET, after the weekly scoring close.
## Additional events scheduled through the August 21 monthly close
- July 31: Bank of Japan policy statement and July economic outlook; release times were undecided at the cutoff.
- August 4, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA June international trade.
- August 4, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
- August 4, after the close: AMD fiscal second-quarter results; call at 5:00 p.m. ET.
- August 7, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July Employment Situation.
- August 12, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July CPI and Real Earnings.
- August 13, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July PPI.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census Bureau July retail sales.
- August 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census Bureau July housing starts and permits, and BLS July import and export prices.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m. ET: minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.
- August 21, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS July state employment and unemployment.
Scheduled dates and times may be changed by the publishing institution. A scheduled item states timing only and does not state or imply an outcome.
This is a neutral record of fixed entry-time facts and calendar statuses. It provides no allocation preference or expected-return conclusion. The complete mechanical full-universe appendix and the complete frozen quality-evidence table are separate generated components of the model input.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-23-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-23-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-23'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-24T09:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-e43c7885fb22
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-24T03:03:22.004137+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 23, 2026 as the one-month entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, August 21, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, the closest prior trading close to Sunday, August 23, and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-23'
exit_date: '2026-08-21'
created_at: '2026-07-24T03:03:22.004137+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.2 monthly round prepared from a new July 23 close research package using direct public-source browsing. Participant tools, browsing, search, retrieval, and follow-up calls are disabled.# CapitalBench Entry Briefing — July 23, 2026 Close
Research cutoff: July 24, 2026 at 03:06:13 UTC. Facts and scheduled statuses first published after that cutoff are excluded.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and participation
Associated Press reported these July 23 closes:
- S&P 500: 7,408.30, down 1.2%.
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,711.65, down 1.0%.
- Nasdaq Composite: 25,137.69, down 2.2%.
- Russell 2000: 2,940.16, down 0.7%.
For the week through July 23, AP reported the S&P 500 down 0.7%, the Dow down 0.8%, the Nasdaq down 1.5%, and the Russell 2000 down 0.7%. For 2026 through that close, the respective changes were +8.2%, +7.6%, +8.2%, and +18.5%.
Reuters reported that four of the S&P 500's 11 industry sectors advanced on July 23. NYSE declining issues outnumbered advancing issues by 2.99 to 1, with 82 new highs and 354 new lows.
AP reported July 23 declines of 14.5% for Tesla, 7.1% for Alphabet, 8.4% for American Airlines, and 6.2% for Southwest Airlines after company results. It reported France's CAC 40 down 1.6% and South Korea's Kospi up 4.4%.
## Energy, fuel, and rates
AP reported Brent crude settled July 23 at $100.69 per barrel, up 7% for the session, after reaching $102 intraday. Brent had traded below $72 early in July. AP placed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.69%, versus 4.67% late July 22 and 3.97% immediately before the war referenced in its report. AAA's national average gasoline price was $4.09 per gallon, versus $3.93 one month earlier and about $4.56 at a May high.
For the week ended July 17, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported:
- Commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve rose 2.0 million barrels to 411.7 million, 6% below the 2021–2025 average.
- Gasoline inventories rose 0.8 million barrels and distillate inventories rose 1.4 million barrels.
- Total commercial petroleum inventories rose 11.6 million barrels.
- Refinery capacity utilization was 96.1%.
- Four-week total product supplied averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, down 1% from a year earlier.
EIA inventory figures are weekly survey estimates. Product supplied is a demand proxy rather than direct consumption.
## U.S. labor, inflation, and activity
The U.S. Department of Labor reported seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims of 187,000 for the week ended July 18, down 22,000 from the prior week's revised 209,000. The four-week average was 207,500, down 7,250 from the prior revised average. The release identified upward revisions of 1,000 to the prior weekly level and 500 to the prior average.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported June nonfarm payroll growth of 57,000, a 4.2% unemployment rate, a 61.5% labor-force participation rate, and 3.5% year-over-year growth in average hourly earnings. April and May payroll gains were revised down by a combined 74,000.
BLS reported that June CPI fell 0.4% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and rose 3.5% over 12 months on an unadjusted basis. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and up 2.6% over 12 months.
BLS reported that June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% month over month on a seasonally adjusted basis and rose 5.5% over 12 months on an unadjusted basis. Final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% for the month and 5.1% over 12 months.
The Census Bureau estimated June retail and food-services sales at $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The published sampling intervals were plus or minus 0.4 percentage point for the monthly change and 0.5 point for the annual change. The estimates are not adjusted for price changes.
The Federal Reserve reported June industrial production rose 0.1% and was 1.1% above June 2025. Total-industry capacity utilization was 76.1%.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million, up 19.0% from May. Housing estimates are subject to sampling error and revision.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis' third estimate placed first-quarter real GDP growth at a 2.1% annualized rate, following 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The Q1 estimate was revised up 0.5 percentage point from the second estimate.
## Monetary-policy status
The Federal Open Market Committee voted 12–0 on June 17 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Its July 28–29 meeting had not occurred by the research cutoff.
The European Central Bank left its key rates unchanged on July 23: 2.25% for the deposit facility, 2.40% for main refinancing operations, and 2.65% for the marginal lending facility. The ECB stated that energy prices were highly volatile, near its June baseline, and well above pre-conflict levels; it also stated that the full inflation effect had yet to pass through. The ECB reiterated a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach without a preset rate path. APP and PEPP portfolios continued to decline because principal payments were not being reinvested.
The Bank of England had maintained Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 7–2 vote in June. Its next decision and Monetary Policy Report were scheduled for July 30.
## July 23 corporate release
RTX reported unaudited second-quarter sales of $24.708 billion, up 14% from a year earlier; net income of $2.139 billion and diluted EPS of $1.57, both up 29%; and adjusted EPS of $1.89, up 21%. It reported operating cash flow of $3.547 billion and company-defined non-GAAP free cash flow of $2.878 billion. Segment sales were $8.210 billion for Collins Aerospace, $8.889 billion for Pratt & Whitney, and $8.269 billion for Raytheon.
Adjusted measures are company-defined non-GAAP figures, and the results were unaudited.
## Events scheduled through the July 30 weekly close
- July 24, 10:00 a.m. ET: Census Bureau June new-home sales.
- July 27, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census Bureau June durable-goods report.
- July 28, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census Bureau June advance economic indicators.
- July 28–29: Federal Open Market Committee meeting; statement July 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.
- July 28, after the close: Visa fiscal third-quarter results; webcast at 5:00 p.m. ET.
- July 29, after the close: Microsoft fiscal fourth-quarter results; webcast at 5:30 p.m. ET.
- July 29, after the close: Qualcomm fiscal third-quarter results.
- July 30, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA advance second-quarter GDP and June Personal Income and Outlays.
- July 30, 12:00 p.m. London time: Bank of England policy announcement, minutes, and Monetary Policy Report; press conference at 1:00 p.m. London time.
- July 30: first day of the Bank of Japan's two-day policy meeting.
Amazon scheduled its second-quarter conference call for July 30 at 5:00 p.m. ET, after the weekly scoring close.
## Additional events scheduled through the August 21 monthly close
- July 31: Bank of Japan policy statement and July economic outlook; release times were undecided at the cutoff.
- August 4, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA June international trade.
- August 4, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
- August 4, after the close: AMD fiscal second-quarter results; call at 5:00 p.m. ET.
- August 7, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July Employment Situation.
- August 12, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July CPI and Real Earnings.
- August 13, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July PPI.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census Bureau July retail sales.
- August 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census Bureau July housing starts and permits, and BLS July import and export prices.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m. ET: minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.
- August 21, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS July state employment and unemployment.
Scheduled dates and times may be changed by the publishing institution. A scheduled item states timing only and does not state or imply an outcome.
This is a neutral record of fixed entry-time facts and calendar statuses. It provides no allocation preference or expected-return conclusion. The complete mechanical full-universe appendix and the complete frozen quality-evidence table are separate generated components of the model input.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "35719b1e1aed21a35150d8f2f577abb191a027721c728526b6a206f5634efe48",
"manifest.yaml": "595021ad891d72d904d3d5506d262e4f2c109f038eb91b24c45793d59fa56f32",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "d8a52935923966c85a0ea7c39c196d6210e7ac82541ac67913bdf309040270e8",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "d263fa53ccb0b7f09a8c639491bd44ea37957575064b13c7d7a62be40c99b0d2",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "f0de03a7eba67d80bc7804b65ab5d2a36b0e8f797a54ffdf66e6ee6b41e4350a",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "3b25a34c5332d21e7694e4a5206e4a55df141da106d21154cebef012fa7570f5",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "25afcb60643308cda4e1b09f74971e174f47a2fa3a657a035311a4542d780bcf",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "d20fa212025928bf700a78f1bf0eb9f4037cbbf81a45c9cd07b9f77d93ed0b4e",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "ef3cf65c548d3cc3229f74393dc61292363e4cb8a6e609b4a75e4c2062b6698e",
"submission_schema.json": "722025ee45d276e3f4d132a6be281de790a0c5478dc0051f23ade0524ff79571"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-23-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-23-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-23-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-23-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-23-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-23-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-23-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
A war-driven oil shock (Brent $100+), rising yields (4.69% 10-year), and broad equity weakness favor energy, low-beta value/dividend/healthcare, and a gold hedge over the cap-weighted, growth-heavy S&P 500.
Overweight energy on the oil price shock, pair with defensive value, healthcare, dividend equities, and gold to outperform SPY in a risk-off, high-rate, high-oil month.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Resilient labor data (claims 187k) and mega-cap earnings could stabilize the index",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Down 1.2% July 23; NYSE decliners 2.99:1 with 354 new lows",
"10-year yield at 4.69% vs 3.97% pre-war",
"Brent at $100.69 pressuring inflation outlook"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil de-escalation and dovish Fed drive index to new highs",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Oil shock and rising yields compress multiples on growth-heavy index",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC Jul 28-29, MSFT earnings Jul 29, July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "War supply-risk premium and tight inventories sustain $100 crude, lifting energy earnings expectations",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $100.69, +7% on July 23, vs below $72 early July",
"Crude inventories 6% below 5-year average; refinery utilization 96.1%",
"XLE +8.41% 21-session active return, negative SPY beta"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below $85 sustained",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Ceasefire or demand destruction collapses crude back toward $75",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA reports; ongoing conflict headlines through Aug 21"
},
{
"continuation_case": "High yields and oil shock favor value's energy/financials tilt over growth",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+1.54% 21s active return, -2.40% max drawdown vs SPY -4.49%",
"10-year yield at 4.69% pressures growth valuations",
"Beta 0.72 to SPY, only -1.31% off 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield below 4.3%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Dovish FOMC compresses yields and revives growth leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC Jul 29, CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation amid war/oil shock continues to favor low-beta healthcare",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+5.46% 21s active return, best in universe context",
"Low beta 0.32, drawdown only -3.74%",
"Deep prior-window underperformance (-10.62%) leaves valuation slack"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad growth rally with healthcare active return turning negative",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rebound after benign FOMC drains defensive flows",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro risk-off through CPI Aug 12 and FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive quality income holds up in risk-off, high-rate month",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+2.62% 21s active return with beta 0.27",
"Only -0.73% off 52-week high, low volatility (11.9%)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY rallies >4% on risk-on rotation",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth-led rally leaves low-beta dividend payers behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "Persistent oil/rate pressure into Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Escalation and inflation hedging demand lift gold",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+1.80% 5-session return despite dollar strength",
"War-driven safe-haven demand; deep prior pullback (-22.5% active) offers entry",
"Oil-driven inflation pass-through not yet complete per ECB statement"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Ceasefire announcement and rising real yields",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation plus hawkish Fed raising real yields hits gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical headlines, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong MSFT/AMD earnings could revive mega-cap growth",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-3.67% 21s active return; Nasdaq -2.2% July 23",
"Beta 1.39, -7.16% off high; Tesla -14.5%, Alphabet -7.1% on results",
"10-year at 4.69% pressures growth multiples"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields fall sharply and growth reclaims leadership",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Rising yields and oil-driven inflation continue de-rating growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "MSFT Jul 29, AMD Aug 4 earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth scare could rally duration if equities sell off hard",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-3.79% 21s active return; 10-year yield rose to 4.69% from 3.97% pre-war",
"Oil shock raises inflation risk; ECB notes pass-through incomplete"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI surprises soft and yields fall below 4.3%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Oil-driven inflation keeps yields elevated or higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC Jul 29, CPI Aug 12"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"cost_usd": 0.47733000000000003,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.3,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rapid geopolitical de-escalation collapses oil and reverses energy/gold gains",
"Dovish FOMC surprise Jul 29 sparks growth rally that value/defensives lag",
"Oil-driven inflation forces yields higher, hitting all equities including holdings",
"Soft July CPI (Aug 12) reignites mega-cap growth leadership"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent settles back below $85 on de-escalation or supply normalization",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent at $100.69 (from sub-$72 early July) amid war shock; energy sector has strong 21-session active return (+8.41%) and low SPY beta, benefiting from sustained high crude through the window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA inventories, continued war-related supply risk premium through Aug 21"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield falls below 4.3% reigniting growth leadership",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value leading (+1.54% 21s active), shallow drawdown, benefits from energy/financials tilt while growth de-rates on 4.69% 10-year yield.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC Jul 28-29, July CPI Aug 12 confirming rate pressure on growth"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rally with growth sectors reclaiming leadership",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Best 21-session active return (+5.46%), low beta (0.32) defensive exposure amid war/oil shock and equity weakness; low prior-window active return argues room to run.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation persists through oil-driven inflation prints (Aug 12 CPI)"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rotation into high-beta growth",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "+2.62% 21s active, very low beta (0.27), shallow drawdown; suits an environment of elevated yields, energy shock, and negative market breadth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued defensive rotation into FOMC and CPI releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Ceasefire/de-escalation plus rising real yields",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Safe-haven hedge on war escalation and inflation pass-through; +1.80% over 5 sessions despite dollar strength, deep prior pullback offers entry.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical escalation, Aug 12 CPI showing energy pass-through"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"portfolio_rationale": "A war-driven oil shock (Brent $100+), rising yields (4.69% 10-year), and broad equity weakness favor energy, low-beta value/dividend/healthcare, and a gold hedge over the cap-weighted, growth-heavy S&P 500.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight energy on the oil price shock, pair with defensive value, healthcare, dividend equities, and gold to outperform SPY in a risk-off, high-rate, high-oil month.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.47733000000000003,
"input_tokens": 28503,
"latency_seconds": 50.32876616390422,
"output_tokens": 3846,
"total_tokens": 32349
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward defensively-positioned sectors (healthcare, financials) with strong recent active returns plus energy momentum from surging oil, anchored by SPY core.
Healthcare and financials show positive active returns with shallow drawdowns; energy rides oil strength; SPY anchors the portfolio.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid labor and moderating inflation support equities",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 down 1.2% July 23, +8.2% YTD",
"spy_return_21s 0.63%",
"187k initial claims signal firm labor"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity selloff exceeding 5%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "FOMC hawkish or tech earnings disappoint",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, Q2 GDP, July jobs report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues amid market volatility",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +5.46% 21s",
"Shallow max drawdown -3.74%",
"Low beta 0.323"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV breaks below recent range",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally leaves defensives behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12, FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sustained high Brent prices boost energy earnings",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +8.41% 21s",
"Brent settled $100.69 up 7%",
"return_5s +4.14%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil pulls back as war premium fades",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA inventories and Brent trajectory"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable rates and healthy credit support banks",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +2.99% 21s",
"Max drawdown only -2.57%",
"Volatility 13.09%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional bank stress or credit event",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit spread widening or curve inversion",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium keeps crude elevated",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s +16.92%",
"active_return_21s +24.75%",
"Brent hit $102 intraday"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 18,
"forecast_low_pct": -15,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $85",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Sharp mean-reversion after 25% run; recent pullback rank 0.00",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly reports"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Flight to safety if equities fall",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"tlt_return_21s -3.16%",
"10-yr yield 4.69% rising",
"active_return_21s -3.79%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "10-yr yield above 4.9%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Rising yields pressure duration",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and jobs data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical risk",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"iau_return_5s +1.80%",
"active_return_21s -2.15%",
"Large drawdown -16.13%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold breaks below recent support",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real yields and strong dollar weigh",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive income favored in choppy tape",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +2.62% 21s",
"Low beta 0.274",
"Shallow drawdown -2.95%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rate spike hurts dividend equities",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Underperforms in growth-led rally",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI and FOMC"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.575,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC July 29 hawkish surprise pressures rate-sensitive and equity broadly",
"Oil price reversal undercuts energy overweight",
"Mega-cap tech earnings volatility spills into broad market"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls below its recent range with negative sector-specific news",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with strong recent active outperformance (+5.46% 21s), shallow drawdown, low beta; attractive after prior underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12 and FOMC minutes Aug 19 favoring defensives"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below $85 sharply",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strongest active return (+8.41% 21s) amid Brent surging 7% to $100.69; oil momentum supports energy equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Elevated Brent crude prices and inventory reports through August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp yield curve inversion or credit stress",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive active return (+2.99% 21s), shallow drawdown, low volatility; benefits from steady rates and strong labor market.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and steady credit conditions"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity selloff exceeding 5%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure to reduce tracking risk while active tilts seek alpha.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, Q2 GDP July 30, July jobs Aug 7"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.375,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward defensively-positioned sectors (healthcare, financials) with strong recent active returns plus energy momentum from surging oil, anchored by SPY core.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Healthcare and financials show positive active returns with shallow drawdowns; energy rides oil strength; SPY anchors the portfolio.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28509,
"latency_seconds": 38.96473233005963,
"output_tokens": 2534,
"total_tokens": 31043
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio overweights the energy sector and crude oil to capitalize on recent price momentum and tight supply dynamics. Gold is included as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, while a core allocation to the S&P 500 provides diversified equity exposure.
Overweight energy and oil due to tight supplies and rising prices. Include gold as an inflation hedge and maintain a core S&P 500 position.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued economic growth and resilient corporate earnings support a rebound.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,408.30, down 1.2% on July 23.",
"First-quarter real GDP growth was revised up to 2.1%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant deterioration in corporate earnings or a sharp rise in unemployment.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Rising interest rates or disappointing earnings could lead to further declines.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming corporate earnings releases and July employment data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tight supplies and strong demand keep energy prices elevated.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $100.69 per barrel, up 7% for the session.",
"Commercial crude inventories are 6% below the 2021-2025 average."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in crude oil prices or a significant build in commercial inventories.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A sudden increase in supply or a drop in demand could reverse the trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly inventory reports and potential OPEC+ policy signals."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Ongoing supply constraints and geopolitical tensions support higher oil prices.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $100.69 per barrel, up 7% for the session.",
"Commercial crude inventories are 6% below the 2021-2025 average."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden resolution to geopolitical tensions or a significant drop in global demand expectations.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "A resolution to geopolitical conflicts or a global economic slowdown could reduce demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly inventory reports and geopolitical developments affecting supply."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty drive safe-haven demand for gold.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"June CPI rose 3.5% over 12 months.",
"Gold has a 5-day return of 1.80%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rise in real interest rates or a significant strengthening of the US dollar.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A sharp rise in real interest rates or a stronger US dollar could weigh on gold prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and PPI releases, and FOMC meeting minutes."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rising inflation and potential Fed rate hikes keep upward pressure on yields.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.69%.",
"June CPI rose 3.5% over 12 months."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant drop in inflation or a dovish shift by the Fed.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A sudden economic slowdown or a shift to a more dovish Fed stance could lower yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and July employment data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings from mega-cap tech companies could drive a rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq Composite down 2.2% on July 23.",
"Alphabet down 7.1% after company results."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant miss in tech earnings or a sharp rise in interest rates.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Rising interest rates and valuation concerns could lead to further underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming tech earnings releases (e.g., Microsoft, Qualcomm)."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive characteristics and steady earnings support the sector.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare sector has a 21-day active return of 5.46%.",
"Defensive sectors may outperform in a volatile market."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant shift in market sentiment towards cyclical sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Regulatory changes or a shift towards cyclical sectors could lead to underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming healthcare earnings releases."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.35,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden drop in energy prices due to increased supply or weakening demand.",
"A stronger-than-expected US dollar, which could weigh on commodity prices.",
"A broader market sell-off driven by disappointing corporate earnings or economic data."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in crude oil prices or a significant build in commercial inventories.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy sector shows strong recent momentum and benefits from rising crude prices and tight inventories.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly inventory reports and potential OPEC+ policy signals."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden resolution to geopolitical tensions or a significant drop in global demand expectations.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct exposure to crude oil, which has surged recently amid tight supplies and strong demand proxies.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly inventory reports and geopolitical developments affecting supply."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rise in real interest rates or a significant strengthening of the US dollar.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Gold provides a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, with recent positive momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and PPI releases, and FOMC meeting minutes."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant deterioration in corporate earnings or a sharp rise in unemployment.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core equity exposure to balance the portfolio, despite recent weakness, supported by ongoing economic growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming corporate earnings releases and July employment data."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.85,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio overweights the energy sector and crude oil to capitalize on recent price momentum and tight supply dynamics. Gold is included as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks, while a core allocation to the S&P 500 provides diversified equity exposure.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight energy and oil due to tight supplies and rising prices. Include gold as an inflation hedge and maintain a core S&P 500 position.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17819,
"latency_seconds": 18.323617208050564,
"output_tokens": 2206,
"total_tokens": 20025
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts away from SPY toward energy/commodity inflation beneficiaries and defensive equity factors with positive relative strength. It respects the 50% non-benchmark cluster cap by keeping energy exposure to 30% and non-energy commodities to 25%.
SPY faces near-term pressure from weak breadth, mega-cap earnings declines, and a scheduled FOMC/macro-heavy month. Selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY and combine oil-driven continuation with defensive rotation potential.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad US equities can recover if upcoming FOMC, GDP, inflation, and earnings events confirm resilient growth and disinflation.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.2% on July 23 and was down 0.7% for the week.",
"NYSE declining issues outnumbered advancing issues by 2.99 to 1, with 354 new lows versus 82 new highs.",
"SPY 21-session return was 0.63%, 5-session return was -1.67%, and distance to 52-week high was -2.57%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks to new highs with improving breadth and easing Treasury yields.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak breadth, high rates, oil-driven inflation risk, and large single-stock earnings disappointments could continue to pressure the index.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29, advance Q2 GDP and June income/outlays on July 30, July employment on August 7, July CPI on August 12, and major technology earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy equities can continue if elevated crude prices sustain earnings revisions and investors seek inflation hedges.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $100.69 on July 23, up 7% for the session, after trading below $72 early in July.",
"ENERGY had 21-session active return of 8.41% and 5-session return of 4.14%.",
"Commercial crude inventories were 6% below the 2021-2025 average despite the latest weekly build."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below roughly $90 or weekly petroleum inventory builds continue alongside weakening product supplied.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The signal could reverse if the crude move proves exhausted after a sharp spike or if inventory builds and weaker demand proxies dominate.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil-price follow-through, July/August inflation data, and any conflict or supply headlines before August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Direct crude exposure could lead if geopolitical risk premium persists and inventories remain tight relative to average.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO 5-session return was 16.92% and 21-session return was 25.37%.",
"Brent crude rose to $100.69 after being below $72 early in July.",
"OIL had 63-session volatility of 51.65% and max drawdown of -32.49%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -12,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude futures retrace the late-July spike or petroleum inventories continue to rise with softer product supplied.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "The very large recent move and high volatility increase the risk of mean reversion before the exit close.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA inventory reports, conflict-related supply headlines, and July CPI/PPI inflation prints."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A broad commodity basket can extend gains if the oil shock feeds inflation expectations and related commodity complexes.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"BROAD_COMMODITIES had 5-session return of 6.49% and 21-session active return of 10.99%.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 7.32%.",
"ECB stated energy prices were highly volatile and well above pre-conflict levels."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodities lose 21-day relative strength versus SPY and energy prices retrace materially.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Commodity gains could reverse if the energy spike fades or global growth concerns outweigh inflation hedging demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI on August 12, July PPI on August 13, and commodity market reaction to energy and inventory news."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dividend equities can benefit from rotation toward lower-volatility, profitable, mature companies during earnings and macro uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND had 21-session active return of 2.62% and 5-session return of -0.73%, outperforming SPY's -1.67% 5-session return.",
"DIVIDEND had 63-session volatility of 11.92% and max drawdown of -2.95%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.599 with high prior active rank and low-volatility rank."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Market leadership returns decisively to mega-cap growth and dividend equities lose their 21-day relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "They could lag if high-beta growth and mega-cap technology rapidly regain leadership after upcoming earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation away from high-beta growth after July 23 earnings declines and upcoming macro/FOMC data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Healthcare can continue to outperform if investors favor lower-beta defensive sectors during a macro and earnings-heavy window.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE had 21-session active return of 5.46%, among the stronger sector-relative readings supplied.",
"Healthcare 5-session return was -0.22%, better than SPY's -1.67%.",
"HEALTHCARE had beta to SPY of 0.323 and distance to 52-week high of -1.82%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare reverses below recent relative strength and broad risk appetite re-accelerates into high-beta cyclicals and technology.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Prior 105-session active return was -10.62%, so recent strength could be only a short-lived rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation around FOMC, employment, CPI, and retail-sales releases before August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Longer prior trend and scheduled chip-related earnings could revive high-beta semiconductor leadership.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS had prior 105-session active return of 47.17% and quality evidence score of 0.736.",
"It also had 21-session active return of -7.36%, 63-session volatility of 52.76%, and max drawdown of -16.80%.",
"Qualcomm results were scheduled for July 29 and AMD results for August 4."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -9,
"invalidation_condition": "Semiconductors fail to respond positively to earnings catalysts or continue underperforming SPY over the next several sessions.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "High volatility, large drawdown, and recent underperformance suggest crowded momentum could keep unwinding.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Qualcomm fiscal Q3 results on July 29 and AMD fiscal Q2 results on August 4."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Semiconductor/export-linked momentum and the sharp local-market gain could persist if global chip sentiment improves.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"South Korea's Kospi was reported up 4.4% on July 23.",
"SOUTH_KOREA had prior 105-session active return of 58.58% and the highest quality evidence score, 0.754.",
"It also had 63-session volatility of 77.36%, beta to SPY of 2.631, and distance to 52-week high of -20.68%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -12,
"invalidation_condition": "Korea-linked exposure gives back the July 23 jump or global semiconductor proxies continue to weaken.",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility, high beta, and deep distance from highs make the one-month outcome highly fragile.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan meeting spillovers, global technology earnings, and risk-appetite changes through August 21."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.03,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil-price spike reverses quickly as inventories build or geopolitical risk premium fades.",
"FOMC communication or July CPI/PPI triggers a broad equity selloff that overwhelms defensive sector selection.",
"Mega-cap technology rebounds sharply after Microsoft, Qualcomm, AMD, or Amazon-related earnings updates, causing SPY to outperform.",
"Commodity inflation pressures rates higher, hurting dividend and healthcare equity valuations."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below roughly $90 or weekly petroleum inventory builds continue alongside weakening product supplied.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy equities have direct support from the supplied oil shock, positive recent active performance, and a still-reasonable distance from highs versus crude itself.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil-price follow-through, July/August inflation data, and any conflict or supply headlines before August 21."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Commodity basket loses recent breakout leadership or energy prices retrace most of the July spike.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Broad commodities provide diversified exposure to the energy-led inflation impulse while avoiding single-contract oil concentration.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of elevated energy prices, July CPI/PPI, and commodity-inflation repricing through August 21."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Market leadership returns decisively to mega-cap growth and dividend equities lose their 21-day relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities show strong recent active return, low drawdown, and lower beta, offering a defensive equity tilt if mega-cap growth remains under pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation away from high-beta growth after July 23 earnings declines and upcoming macro/FOMC data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare reverses below recent relative strength and broad risk appetite re-accelerates into high-beta cyclicals and technology.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare has a strong 21-day active return, shallow drawdown, and low market beta, fitting a defensive sector rotation case over the one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation around FOMC, employment, CPI, and retail-sales releases before August 21."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.43,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts away from SPY toward energy/commodity inflation beneficiaries and defensive equity factors with positive relative strength. It respects the 50% non-benchmark cluster cap by keeping energy exposure to 30% and non-energy commodities to 25%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY faces near-term pressure from weak breadth, mega-cap earnings declines, and a scheduled FOMC/macro-heavy month. Selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY and combine oil-driven continuation with defensive rotation potential.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"latency_seconds": 38.67886776383966,
"output_tokens": 2556,
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}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines defense fundamentals, technology earnings catalysts, energy supply risk, and defensive dividend exposure. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no non-benchmark economic cluster exceeds 50%.
Direct corporate evidence and near-term scheduled catalysts favor a diversified active allocation over SPY. The principal trade-off is exposure to volatile technology and energy reversals.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Positive year-to-date performance, resilient claims, and upcoming earnings could restore broad-market gains after the pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned 0.63% over 21 sessions but fell 1.67% over five sessions.",
"Only 30.43% of tracked assets were positive over five sessions.",
"NYSE decliners exceeded advancers by 2.99 to 1, with 354 new lows."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY fails to regain its July 23 level after the FOMC meeting and breadth remains materially negative.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak breadth, elevated oil prices, and a 4.69% ten-year yield could deepen the correction.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July FOMC meeting, major corporate earnings, July employment and inflation reports, and July retail sales."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong RTX operating results and geopolitical risk can sustain defense-sector demand and relative strength.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ITA gained 3.18% over five sessions.",
"RTX reported 14% sales growth and 21% adjusted EPS growth.",
"RTX reported $2.878 billion of company-defined free cash flow."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -9,
"invalidation_condition": "ITA loses its recent relative strength and falls below its July 23 closing level while geopolitical risk subsides.",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"reversal_case": "The recent gain could fade because prior 105-session active return was -9.27% and sector volatility was 25.01%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defense-sector follow-through after RTX results and geopolitical developments through August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend and near-term earnings can reassert leadership after the recent active pullback.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLK had a 20.79% prior-window active return and a 0.722 quality evidence score.",
"XLK gained 0.52% over five sessions despite SPY falling 1.67%.",
"Microsoft, Qualcomm, and AMD results are scheduled before the exit close."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 13,
"forecast_low_pct": -11,
"invalidation_condition": "Major technology earnings disappoint and XLK extends its drawdown beyond the reported 63-session maximum.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "High volatility, a 1.679 beta, and disappointing earnings could extend the 11.31% drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft, Qualcomm, and AMD earnings before the exit close, plus the July FOMC decision."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent geopolitical supply risk and elevated crude prices can support near-term energy-sector earnings expectations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE outperformed SPY by 8.41% over 21 sessions.",
"Brent settled at $100.69 after a 7% daily gain.",
"Commercial crude inventories were 6% below their 2021–2025 average."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 14,
"forecast_low_pct": -13,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent rapidly retreats below its early-July range or XLE's 21-session active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The oil move is extended, total petroleum inventories rose 11.6 million barrels, and product supplied was down 1% year over year.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil-price developments, weekly petroleum data, and geopolitical supply-risk headlines through August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relative strength and lower volatility can persist if investors favor profitable, mature companies during macro uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD outperformed SPY by 2.62% over 21 sessions.",
"Its prior 105-session active return was 3.18%.",
"Its 11.92% volatility was below SPY's 13.07%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD underperforms SPY over the post-entry period while its drawdown exceeds the reported 63-session maximum.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A renewed growth-led rally could leave dividend equities behind, while the weak recent pullback rank indicates limited entry relief.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC communication and July inflation and employment releases may favor profitable, dividend-oriented equities."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Soft payroll growth and benign monthly core CPI could pull yields lower and produce a duration rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT fell 3.16% over 21 sessions and 1.24% over five sessions.",
"The ten-year Treasury yield reached 4.69%.",
"June core CPI was unchanged month over month, but headline CPI was 3.5% year over year."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "The ten-year yield remains above 4.69% after the July CPI release or TLT makes a new 63-session low.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated oil prices and high producer inflation could keep yields rising and extend the negative prior trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July FOMC decision, July employment and CPI releases, and August 19 FOMC minutes."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A favorable Bank of Japan outcome and the strong quality score could restart Japan's prior relative trend.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Japan had a 0.659 quality evidence score and a 2.40% prior active return.",
"EWJ underperformed SPY by 2.41% over 21 sessions.",
"The Bank of Japan policy statement and economic outlook are scheduled for July 31."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -10,
"invalidation_condition": "EWJ underperforms SPY following the Bank of Japan decision and breaks below its recent 63-session drawdown level.",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Policy tightening, yen volatility, or weak global trade could amplify losses given 22.13% volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 31 Bank of Japan policy statement and economic outlook."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.09,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A geopolitical de-escalation could sharply reverse oil and defense-sector gains.",
"Technology earnings or guidance could disappoint after elevated prior relative performance.",
"A hawkish FOMC response to energy-driven inflation could pressure equity valuations.",
"Weak breadth and the July 23 surge in new lows could develop into a broader risk-off correction."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "ITA loses its recent relative strength and falls below its July 23 closing level while geopolitical risk subsides.",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "RTX's strong sales, earnings, and cash-flow growth provide direct fundamental support, while geopolitical conditions may sustain defense demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defense-sector follow-through after RTX results and geopolitical developments through August 21."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Major technology earnings disappoint and XLK extends its drawdown beyond the reported 63-session maximum.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative performance and a recent relative pullback create a favorable setup around major technology earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft, Qualcomm, and AMD earnings before the exit close, plus the July FOMC decision."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent rapidly retreats below its early-July range or XLE's 21-session active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Elevated crude prices and strong sector-relative momentum support near-term earnings expectations, with sizing limited by reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil-price developments, weekly petroleum data, and geopolitical supply-risk headlines through August 21."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD underperforms SPY over the post-entry period while its drawdown exceeds the reported 63-session maximum.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Positive short- and prior-window relative performance, moderate volatility, and mature-company exposure offer defensive participation during macro uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC communication and July inflation and employment releases may favor profitable, dividend-oriented equities."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.54,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines defense fundamentals, technology earnings catalysts, energy supply risk, and defensive dividend exposure. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no non-benchmark economic cluster exceeds 50%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Direct corporate evidence and near-term scheduled catalysts favor a diversified active allocation over SPY. The principal trade-off is exposure to volatile technology and energy reversals.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"output_tokens": 2737,
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}xai-grok-4-3
Energy and Japan selected for base forecasts exceeding SPY; allocations respect 50% cluster cap.
Portfolio tilts toward energy strength and Japan policy catalyst while retaining core SP500 exposure.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Stabilization after July 23 decline supports modest positive return",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7408.30 on July 23",
"YTD return +8.2% through July 23"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7200 on August 21",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further downside if earnings disappoint",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated oil prices persist through inventory data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $100.69 up 7% on July 23",
"XLE active return 8.41% over 21 days"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand weakness appears in EIA reports",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA inventory releases and Brent price action"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Policy continuity supports equity gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EWJ prior active return positive",
"Bank of Japan meeting scheduled"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "EWJ closes below 65 on August 21",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Yen strength pressures exporters",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan policy statement July 31"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply constraints keep prices elevated",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO 5-day return 16.92%",
"Brent reached $102 intraday"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 4,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "USO closes below 70 on August 21",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Inventory surge reverses gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA inventory releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active return 5.46% over 21 days",
"Low drawdown rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV closes below 135 on August 21",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Rate volatility hits valuations",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yield curve supports banks",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLF active return 2.99% over 21 days",
"Shallow drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF closes below 42 on August 21",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit spreads widen",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 5-day return 1.80%",
"Low quality evidence score"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU closes below 45 on August 21",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength resumes",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market follows SPY path",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"VTI 21-day return near SPY",
"Similar volatility to SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "VTI closes below 260 on August 21",
"option_id": "TOTAL_US_MARKET",
"reversal_case": "Small-cap underperformance widens",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.85,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil price reversal on inventory builds",
"FOMC outcome surprises rates markets",
"Geopolitical escalation affecting energy"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7200 on August 21",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad US equity exposure with base forecast supported by recent stabilization and upcoming data releases.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong oil price momentum and inventory data support outperformance versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA inventory releases and Brent price action"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "EWJ closes below 65 on August 21",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "Relative strength in prior active returns and Bank of Japan policy meeting provide catalyst.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan policy statement July 31"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.05,
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy and Japan selected for base forecasts exceeding SPY; allocations respect 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Portfolio tilts toward energy strength and Japan policy catalyst while retaining core SP500 exposure.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16269,
"latency_seconds": 30.38292040093802,
"output_tokens": 1601,
"reasoning_tokens": 738,
"total_tokens": 18608
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio overweight energy complex on the documented crude spike and inventory context while adding healthcare for relative strength, keeping SPY as ballast. Active holdings clear the SPY base hurdle and energy cluster stays at the 50% cap.
Energy and oil offer the clearest positive base-case edge from the supplied price and briefing facts; healthcare adds a second cluster with better recent active return. Remaining weight stays in SPY.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Soft landing data and stable policy keep large-cap equities grinding higher after the one-day drop.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7408.30 down 1.2% on July 23 with week down 0.7%",
"YTD through July 23 +8.2%",
"FOMC meeting July 28-29 and advance Q2 GDP July 30 scheduled"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Close more than 4% below entry on rising volatility and new lows",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Higher yields or weak growth prints extend the July 23 breadth deterioration.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and BEA GDP/PCE July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated crude and tight inventory backdrop sustain energy equity outperformance.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $100.69 up 7% on July 23 after trading below $72 earlier in July",
"XLE active_return_21s +8.41% and return_5s +4.14%",
"Commercial crude inventories 6% below 2021-2025 average"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $85 with XLE underperforming SPY",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Rapid oil mean-reversion or demand disappointment unwinds the sector move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA inventory prints and any supply headlines before August 21"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply tightness and geopolitical premium keep crude elevated into the exit window.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"USO return_5s +16.92% and return_21s +25.37%",
"Brent reached $102 intraday and closed near $100.69",
"AAA gasoline $4.09 versus $3.93 one month earlier"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 6,
"forecast_high_pct": 18,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained Brent move under $80",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Inventory builds and fading risk premium drive a sharp futures pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly data and geopolitical developments through mid-August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive relative strength persists amid mixed growth and policy uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active_return_21s +5.46% with return_5s only -0.22%",
"June CPI -0.4% m/m and core unchanged supports defensive bid",
"Distance to 52w high only -1.82%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turns negative by more than 2% versus SPY",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Strong risk-on rotation after soft data leaves healthcare lagging cyclicals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment August 7 and July CPI August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI infrastructure demand and mega-cap earnings revive the prior trend.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH prior_105s_active_return +47.17% but active_return_21s -7.36%",
"Volatility_63s 52.76% and max_drawdown_63s -16.80%",
"Microsoft and Qualcomm results scheduled July 29"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -10,
"invalidation_condition": "Further underperformance versus SPY with break of recent lows",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and recent relative weakness continue after mixed tech results.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Qualcomm earnings July 29; AMD August 4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth scare or dovish FOMC drives yields lower and duration rally.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year yield at 4.69% versus 3.97% pre-war reference",
"TLT return_21s -3.16% and active_return_21s -3.79%",
"FOMC holds 3.50%-3.75% range as of June; July meeting pending"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises further above 4.9% with TLT new lows",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation or higher term premium extends the bond selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and July CPI August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Semiconductor export rebound and recent bounce extend into the month.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Kospi up 4.4% on July 23; EWY return_5s +6.43%",
"Prior_105s_active_return +58.58% but active_return_21s -10.17%",
"Volatility_63s 77.36% and distance_52w_high -20.68%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 11,
"forecast_low_pct": -12,
"invalidation_condition": "EWY gives back the 5-session gain and underperforms SPY",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility and deep prior drawdown reverse the one-day surge.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global tech earnings and any Korea export data before exit"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity complex follows energy higher on supply and inflation residual.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"PDBC return_5s +6.49% and active_return_21s +10.99%",
"Brent surge and broad commodity strength noted in mechanical state",
"Max_drawdown_63s -16.55%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "PDBC active return collapses as crude reverses",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Oil-specific move fails to broaden and PDBC mean-reverts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Energy and inventory data through August"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 2.3,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp reversal in crude oil prices from elevated levels",
"FOMC or inflation data triggering broad equity risk-off",
"High volatility in oil and energy products amplifying drawdowns",
"Concentration risk within the energy economic-exposure cluster"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude reverses sharply below $85 or energy sector underperforms SPY on inventory builds",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Oil price spike and inventory tightness support energy equities outperformance versus broad market over the one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued Brent strength near $100 and any supply headlines before August 21 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent settles sustainably under $80 or large unexpected inventory builds",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct crude exposure captures the sharp recent price move and elevated levels after the session surge.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical or inventory data sustaining elevated crude prices through mid-August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses relative strength and trails SPY by more than 2% on risk-on rebound",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive relative strength and positive active return provide diversification with higher base case than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and CPI data supporting defensive rotation"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained break below recent lows with broadening declines",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark holding while concentrating active risk in higher-base energy and healthcare.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29 decision and July 30 GDP/PCE releases"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 3.1,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio overweight energy complex on the documented crude spike and inventory context while adding healthcare for relative strength, keeping SPY as ballast. Active holdings clear the SPY base hurdle and energy cluster stays at the 50% cap.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy and oil offer the clearest positive base-case edge from the supplied price and briefing facts; healthcare adds a second cluster with better recent active return. Remaining weight stays in SPY.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17154,
"latency_seconds": 44.18805415881798,
"output_tokens": 2559,
"reasoning_tokens": 16,
"total_tokens": 19729
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Energy Sector (XLE)30%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15%Gold (IAU)10% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%S&P 500 (SPY)25% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Crude Oil (USO)20%Gold (IAU)25%S&P 500 (SPY)25% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Broad Commodities (PDBC)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Aerospace and Defense (ITA)35%Technology Sector (XLK)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Energy Sector (XLE)30%Japan Equities (EWJ)20% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)35%Crude Oil (USO)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%S&P 500 (SPY)25% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-23 | 238.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-23 | 92.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-23 | 28.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-23 | 28.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-23 | 116.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-23 | 152.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-23 | 36.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-23 | 36.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-23 | 59.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-23 | 18.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-23 | 58.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-23 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-23 | 53.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-23 | 105.38 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-23 | 108.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-23 | 83.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-23 | 38.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-23 | 139.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-23 | 87.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-23 | 69.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-23 | 94.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-23 | 58.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-23 | 59.38 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-23 | 211.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-23 | 14.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-23 | 105.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-23 | 87.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-23 | 55.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-23 | 76.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-23 | 161.44 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-23 | 79.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-23 | 47.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-23 | 181.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-23 | 92.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-23 | 47.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-23 | 106.26 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-23 | 91.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-23 | 56.01 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-23 | 83.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-23 | 50.29 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-23 | 103.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-23 | 75.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-23 | 105.26 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-23 | 691.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-23 | 44.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-23 | 75.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-23 | 738.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-23 | 580.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-23 | 91.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-23 | 52.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-23 | 87.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-23 | 52.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-23 | 60.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-23 | 173.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-23 | 99.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-23 | 178.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-23 | 364.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-23 | 107.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-23 | 46.70 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-23 | 97.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-23 | 32.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-23 | 28.56 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-23 | 118.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-23 | 246.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-23 | 76.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-23 | 75.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-23 | 313.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-23 | 292.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-23 | 220.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-23 | 46.19 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 35719b1e1aed...634efe48 |
| manifest.yaml | 595021ad891d...9fa56f32 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | d8a529359239...040270e8 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | d263fa53ccb0...0c99b0d2 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | f0de03a7eba6...41e4350a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 3b25a34c5332...fa7570f5 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 25afcb606433...2d780bcf |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | d20fa2120259...93ed0b4e |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |