Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 65.3 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +37.50% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +53.75%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Energy Sector (XLE) is the largest aggregate allocation at +17.81%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
9 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-17 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
9 artifacts published.
official-v2-all-final-20260717
32,630 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-17-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-17
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-18T06:20:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-18T09:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-17
- Exit date: 2026-08-17
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 17, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, August 17, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Monthly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 18, 2026 at 06:20 UTC. Scoring window: July 17 through August 17, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% for the month. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% energy decrease, while services increased 0.2%. Final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services increased 5.1% over 12 months. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June import prices increased 0.3% and 7.1% over 12 months. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.4% and 4.2% over 12 months. Export prices decreased 0.6% for the month.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months. Labor-force participation was 61.5%.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Federal Reserve reported that June industrial production increased 0.1% and second-quarter production increased at a 4.0% annual rate. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June and increased at a 4.7% annual rate in the quarter. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 4.1% over 12 months, core PCE prices increased 3.4%, and the saving rate was 3.0%.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan. Seventeen of 18 participants assessed PCE-inflation uncertainty as higher than the prior-20-year average and risks as weighted to the upside.
- On July 17, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.85% at three months, 4.18% at two years, 4.55% at ten years, and 5.06% at 30 years. Treasury curve rates are interpolated.
## Market, International, And Energy Data
- On July 17, the S&P 500 closed at 7,475.69, down 1.0% for the session and 1.6% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,520.24, down 1.4% for the session and 2.9% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,962.22, down 0.4% for the session and 0.5% for the week. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 1.76 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.73 to 1 on Nasdaq.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year and second-quarter growth of 4.3% year over year. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year. The official manufacturing PMI was 50.3, while its small-enterprise component was 48.2. GDP figures were preliminary.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June and forecast a $74 third-quarter average. It forecast 2026 U.S. crude production of 13.8 million barrels per day, Henry Hub natural gas at $3.67 per MMBtu, and LNG gross exports of 17 billion cubic feet per day. Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 market session. Values beyond observed dates are forecasts.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 21-22: BEA direct-investment data, BLS state labor-market data, and the EIA weekly petroleum report.
- July 28-29: Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the statement and press conference scheduled July 29.
- July 30-31: BEA advance second-quarter GDP and June Personal Income and Outlays; BLS second-quarter Employment Cost Index.
- August 3-7: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; BEA June trade; BLS June JOLTS, preliminary second-quarter productivity, and July Employment Situation.
- August 12-13: BLS July CPI and July PPI.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts, forecasts, and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-17-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-17'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-18T09:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 17, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, August 17, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-17'
exit_date: '2026-08-17'
created_at: '2026-07-18T06:18:11.760387+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.0 monthly round. Research assembled after the July 17 close through direct public-source browsing; participant model tools and search are disabled.# CapitalBench Monthly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 18, 2026 at 06:20 UTC. Scoring window: July 17 through August 17, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% for the month. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% energy decrease, while services increased 0.2%. Final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services increased 5.1% over 12 months. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June import prices increased 0.3% and 7.1% over 12 months. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.4% and 4.2% over 12 months. Export prices decreased 0.6% for the month.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months. Labor-force participation was 61.5%.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Federal Reserve reported that June industrial production increased 0.1% and second-quarter production increased at a 4.0% annual rate. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June and increased at a 4.7% annual rate in the quarter. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 4.1% over 12 months, core PCE prices increased 3.4%, and the saving rate was 3.0%.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan. Seventeen of 18 participants assessed PCE-inflation uncertainty as higher than the prior-20-year average and risks as weighted to the upside.
- On July 17, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.85% at three months, 4.18% at two years, 4.55% at ten years, and 5.06% at 30 years. Treasury curve rates are interpolated.
## Market, International, And Energy Data
- On July 17, the S&P 500 closed at 7,475.69, down 1.0% for the session and 1.6% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,520.24, down 1.4% for the session and 2.9% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,962.22, down 0.4% for the session and 0.5% for the week. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 1.76 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.73 to 1 on Nasdaq.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year and second-quarter growth of 4.3% year over year. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year. The official manufacturing PMI was 50.3, while its small-enterprise component was 48.2. GDP figures were preliminary.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June and forecast a $74 third-quarter average. It forecast 2026 U.S. crude production of 13.8 million barrels per day, Henry Hub natural gas at $3.67 per MMBtu, and LNG gross exports of 17 billion cubic feet per day. Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 market session. Values beyond observed dates are forecasts.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 21-22: BEA direct-investment data, BLS state labor-market data, and the EIA weekly petroleum report.
- July 28-29: Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with the statement and press conference scheduled July 29.
- July 30-31: BEA advance second-quarter GDP and June Personal Income and Outlays; BLS second-quarter Employment Cost Index.
- August 3-7: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; BEA June trade; BLS June JOLTS, preliminary second-quarter productivity, and July Employment Situation.
- August 12-13: BLS July CPI and July PPI.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts, forecasts, and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Momentum in the market has rotated from stretched tech (QQQ -6.7% from highs, SMH -16.8%) toward value, healthcare, financials, and equal-weight breadth. Soft June CPI and weak payrolls support a defensive-value tilt with a steep curve helping financials, while avoiding high-beta growth ahead of FOMC and CPI catalysts.
Overweight value, equal-weight, healthcare, and financials to capture the ongoing rotation out of concentrated tech, staying within the 50% cluster cap on diversified US equity.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Disinflation and resilient GDP support modest gains",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY down 1.6% for the week, -1.54% over 5 sessions",
"Soft June CPI (-0.4% m/m) but core PCE 3.4% keeps Fed cautious",
"Mega-cap tech weakness dragging the cap-weighted index (QQQ -4.16% 5s)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "n/a - benchmark",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tech concentration unwind continues to weigh on cap-weighted index",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, Aug 12-13 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent rotation out of stretched growth into value with independent trend in prior window",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+2.77% active return over 21 sessions, prior-window active +3.08%",
"Only -0.57% from 52-week high with lowest equity drawdown (-2.40%)",
"Soft CPI and weak payrolls (57k) support rate-relief for value sectors"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD active 21s return turns negative",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound on strong mega-cap earnings would reverse rotation",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth broadening as mega-cap tech corrects",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP-SPY spread +1.11% (5s) and +1.64% (21s)",
"Lowest volatility (11.01%) and drawdown (-2.04%) among equity options"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY 21s spread turns negative",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Renewed mega-cap leadership flips spread negative",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings breadth through mid-August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation with room to recover after prior weakness",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+6.48% active over 21 sessions, best major sector",
"Low beta 0.33 and modest -4.01% drawdown",
"Prior-window underperformance (-11.7%) suggests early-stage recovery, not extended trend"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV lags SPY >2% during window",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Policy headlines or risk-on growth rebound halt recovery",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows into FOMC and August macro data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Curve steepness and value rotation support banks and insurers",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+4.56% active over 21 sessions, -0.86% from 52w high",
"Steep curve: 2y 4.18% vs 30y 5.06% supports margins",
"KRE also +7.10% active confirming sector breadth"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp curve flattening or negative SLOOS credit shock",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit deterioration or hawkish Fed surprise",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, SLOOS Aug 3-7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical or supply-driven oil strength persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE +5.63% active 21s; Brent +4.6% July 17 session",
"EIA forecasts Q3 Brent at $74 vs $85 June average, implying mean reversion",
"USO +14% in 5 sessions signals possible spike, not durable trend"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below $75",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA's lower Q3 forecast plays out; oil spike fades",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA petroleum reports"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong mega-cap earnings could reignite growth leadership",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-4.16% in 5 sessions, -6.71% from 52w high",
"High beta 1.385 amid tech-led selloff; SMH -8.92% 5s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ reclaims 52-week high",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Concentration unwind and factor rotation continue",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 mega-cap earnings late July"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls and soft CPI could pull yields lower",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"30y at 5.06%, TLT -0.89% active 21s",
"Core PCE 3.4% and upside inflation risk per Fed keeps duration challenged"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield rises above 4.8%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky services inflation and upside PCE risk push yields higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, CPI Aug 12"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp mega-cap tech rebound would reverse the rotation and cause underperformance vs SPY",
"Hawkish July 29 FOMC or hot August CPI could hit all equity holdings",
"Healthcare policy headlines could derail XLV strength",
"Oil-driven inflation resurgence (Brent +4.6% on Jul 17) pressuring rate-sensitive value"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp mega-cap tech rebound reversing value leadership over multiple sessions",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value rotation underway: +2.77% active over 21 sessions, low drawdown, near 52w high, supported by soft CPI and cooling labor data favoring lower-beta value.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC and Aug 12-13 CPI/PPI; continued rotation out of stretched tech"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY 21-session spread turning negative",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Breadth broadening: RSP-SPY spread +1.64% over 21 sessions with lowest volatility among equity options; benefits from concentration unwind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings season broadening beyond mega-caps; July 29 FOMC"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY by more than 2% intra-window as risk appetite returns to growth",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strongest sector active return (+6.48% over 21s) with low beta (0.33) and modest drawdown; defensive rotation beneficiary after prior underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing defensive rotation through FOMC (Jul 29) and August data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit deterioration in SLOOS or sharp curve flattening",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "+4.56% active over 21 sessions, near 52w high, supported by steep 2s/30s curve (4.18%/5.06%) benefiting net interest margins.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC; SLOOS Aug 3-7; curve steepness persistence"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"portfolio_rationale": "Momentum in the market has rotated from stretched tech (QQQ -6.7% from highs, SMH -16.8%) toward value, healthcare, financials, and equal-weight breadth. Soft June CPI and weak payrolls support a defensive-value tilt with a steep curve helping financials, while avoiding high-beta growth ahead of FOMC and CPI catalysts.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight value, equal-weight, healthcare, and financials to capture the ongoing rotation out of concentrated tech, staying within the 50% cluster cap on diversified US equity.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23906,
"latency_seconds": 47.29607821488753,
"output_tokens": 3574,
"total_tokens": 27480
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
Tilt defensively into leaders (healthcare, financials, low-vol) that outperformed during the recent tech-led drawdown, while retaining core SPY exposure ahead of FOMC and CPI catalysts.
Tech/semis just suffered severe drawdowns (SMH -8.9%, AIQ -7.5%) while defensives and financials showed positive active returns. Overweight the leadership rotation rather than chasing broken momentum.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Disinflation supports multiples; earnings resilient",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY -1.54% 5s, -0.68% 21s",
"Fed on hold at 3.5-3.75%",
"June CPI -0.4% m/m, core unchanged"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below -3% on FOMC or CPI",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tech momentum unwind broadens into full correction",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues as growth stalls",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV +6.48% 21s active",
"Low beta 0.33, drawdown only -4.01%",
"Near 52w high -2.04%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV -4% breakdown",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Biotech-led weakness or drug-price policy shock",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings, defensive flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Earnings beats, NIM support from steep curve",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF +4.56% 21s active",
"KRE +7.10% 21s active",
"Steep curve 3.85%-5.06%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF breaks below -3%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit deterioration or Fed dovish surprise flattens curve",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings, FOMC"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive factor leadership persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPLV +3.66% 21s active",
"Prior 105s active -5.81% (mean reversion working)",
"Low beta 0.04"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPLV underperforms SPY by 2%+",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"reversal_case": "Sharp risk-on tech rebound",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI/FOMC volatility"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oversold bounce",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLK -5.48% 5s",
"-11.31% drawdown 63s",
"Prior 105s +20% active - momentum unwinding"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLK makes new lows",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Momentum unwind continues, valuations reset",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil spike momentum",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE +5.63% 21s active",
"USO +14% 5s",
"EIA Q3 Brent forecast $74 (below June $85)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent breaks below $75",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA forecasts Q3 price decline",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly reports"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth scare bid",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10y 4.55%, 30y 5.06%",
"TLT -1.58% 21s",
"Fed dot 3.8% year-end"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "30y breaks above 5.20%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky core inflation 2.6%",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe haven bid on FOMC dovish",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU -7.36% 21s",
"-25.67% from 52w high",
"-18.11% drawdown 63s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU makes new lows",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Real rates elevated, dollar firm",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.38,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC surprise hawkish tilt hits rate-sensitive defensives",
"Tech mean-reversion bounce leaves defensive tilt behind SPY",
"Hot CPI on Aug 12 causes broad equity selloff"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below recent support with credit spreads widening",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure amid tech-led pullback",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC and Aug 12-13 CPI/PPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV breaks down more than 4% or biotech-led selloff",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong 21s active return (+6.48%), defensive, low beta, near highs",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings and defensive rotation"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "KRE/XLF break down on credit deterioration",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive momentum (+4.56% 21s), steep curve, resilient in weak tape",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings and FOMC"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on tech rally reverses defensive leadership",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Defensive factor showing +3.66% active return, low drawdown",
"time_window_catalyst": "Volatility persistence through CPI"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.18,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt defensively into leaders (healthcare, financials, low-vol) that outperformed during the recent tech-led drawdown, while retaining core SPY exposure ahead of FOMC and CPI catalysts.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Tech/semis just suffered severe drawdowns (SMH -8.9%, AIQ -7.5%) while defensives and financials showed positive active returns. Overweight the leadership rotation rather than chasing broken momentum.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23917,
"latency_seconds": 42.76404638891108,
"output_tokens": 2521,
"total_tokens": 26438
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward defensive, lower-beta sectors (healthcare, financials, dividends) showing positive relative strength as mega-cap tech corrects sharply, with a core SPY sleeve.
Defensive rotation is underway with tech clusters down heavily while healthcare, financials, and dividends show positive active returns and low drawdowns.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market stabilizes after pullback with earnings support",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed 7,475.69, down 1.0% session and 1.6% week",
"beta 1.0, vol 13.13%, distance to 52w high -1.89%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below recent support with rising volatility",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tech-led selloff deepens dragging index lower",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues as tech corrects",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV 21s active return +6.48%, beta 0.33",
"low drawdown -4.01%, positive 5s +0.16%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turns negative over next weeks",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally favors high-beta growth over defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, defensive flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve and stable credit support bank earnings",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF 21s active +4.56%, low vol 13.17%",
"positive 5s +0.99%, drawdown -3.34%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen materially",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit stress or dovish surprise flattens curve",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, bank earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Quality defensive bid persists in choppy market",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD 5s +1.57%, 21s active +2.66%",
"beta 0.28, drawdown -2.95%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp yield spike pressures dividend equities",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth rally reverses defensive leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil momentum continues near term",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE 5s +4.72%, Brent +4.6% session",
"EIA forecasts Q3 Brent $74 vs June $85"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back toward $74 forecast",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA forecasts lower Q3 oil, high volatility 24.79%",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum reports"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap rebound possible after correction",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"QQQ 5s -4.16%, 21s active -3.94%",
"beta 1.385, drawdown -7.03%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ continues underperforming SPY",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Tech correction continues with high volatility",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech earnings, FOMC"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration rallies on growth slowdown",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT 21s -1.58%, 30yr yield 5.06%",
"inflation still 3.5% CPI, upside risk noted"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Long yields rise on hot inflation data",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation keeps long yields elevated",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steepening curve boosts regional bank margins",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"KRE 5s +2.23%, 21s active +7.10%",
"higher vol 21.06%, beta 0.813"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional bank credit stress emerges",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "CRE and deposit stress hit regionals",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-7"
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.745,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Tech mega-caps rebound sharply, reversing defensive leadership and dragging SPY up faster",
"Hawkish FOMC July 29 hits rate-sensitive and cyclical sectors",
"Energy/oil spike feeds inflation and pressures broad equities"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls below its 52w-high distance by more than 6% or sharp risk-on tech rally",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with strong 21s active return (+6.48%), low beta (0.33), and low drawdown; benefits from rotation out of tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and defensive rotation amid tech weakness"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply or regional bank stress",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive momentum (+4.56% 21s active), low volatility, steepening curve supportive of bank margins.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and Q2 bank earnings"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp yield spike or growth-led rally reverses defensive bid",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Low beta defensive dividend equity with positive 5s (+1.57%) and 21s (+2.66%) active returns amid market decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation to quality defensives before/after FOMC"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity selloff below recent support",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure to hedge against a tech rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and July jobs/CPI releases"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.245,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward defensive, lower-beta sectors (healthcare, financials, dividends) showing positive relative strength as mega-cap tech corrects sharply, with a core SPY sleeve.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive rotation is underway with tech clusters down heavily while healthcare, financials, and dividends show positive active returns and low drawdowns.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23912,
"latency_seconds": 40.93643354298547,
"output_tokens": 2653,
"total_tokens": 26565
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio overweights energy and regional banks to capture recent momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions, while using healthcare as a defensive anchor. This combination aims to generate alpha over the S&P 500 in a potentially volatile environment.
Overweight energy and financials for growth, with healthcare for defense.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Economic growth remains positive, supporting corporate earnings.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,475.69, down 1.0% for the session and 1.6% for the week.",
"First-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 breaks below recent support levels on high volume.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Inflation re-accelerates, forcing the Fed to hike rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting on July 28-29."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong momentum and tight supply keep oil prices elevated.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 market session.",
"USO returned 14.04% over the last 5 sessions."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $80 per barrel.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Global growth slows significantly, reducing oil demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum report on July 21-22."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable interest rates and positive economic growth support bank lending and margins.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"KRE returned 2.23% over the last 5 sessions and 7.10% active return over 21 sessions.",
"Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant increase in loan loss provisions reported by major regional banks.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Commercial real estate defaults increase, hitting regional bank balance sheets.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on August 3-7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues amid market volatility.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV returned 6.48% active return over the last 21 sessions.",
"Healthcare is a defensive sector that can perform well in uncertain macroeconomic environments."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms the broader market for two consecutive weeks.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Market shifts back to high-beta growth stocks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Second-quarter GDP release on July 30-31."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Fed holds rates steady, providing consistent yield.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Three-month Treasury yield was 3.85%.",
"BIL returned 0.05% over the last 5 sessions."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Three-month yield drops below 3.5%.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Fed unexpectedly cuts rates significantly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting on July 28-29."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflation cools, reducing the appeal of gold as an inflation hedge.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU returned -2.28% over the last 5 sessions.",
"June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold prices break above recent highs.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Geopolitical tensions escalate, driving safe-haven demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release on August 12-13."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.81,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden economic downturn could negatively impact oil demand and regional bank loan portfolios.",
"Unexpectedly hawkish Fed policy could pressure equity valuations across all sectors.",
"A rapid rotation back into mega-cap technology stocks could cause this portfolio to underperform the S&P 500."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $80 per barrel.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Strong recent momentum and tight supply dynamics support continued outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum report on July 21-22."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant increase in loan loss provisions reported by major regional banks.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Stable rates and positive economic growth provide a favorable environment for regional banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on August 3-7."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms the broader market for two consecutive weeks.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive characteristics offer downside protection while maintaining positive expected returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Second-quarter GDP release on July 30-31."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.81,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio overweights energy and regional banks to capture recent momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions, while using healthcare as a defensive anchor. This combination aims to generate alpha over the S&P 500 in a potentially volatile environment.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight energy and financials for growth, with healthcare for defense.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15226,
"latency_seconds": 19.727421188959852,
"output_tokens": 1856,
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"total_tokens": 17616
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts toward areas with supplied evidence of recent relative strength and plausible one-month catalysts from rates, inflation, labor, and energy data. It avoids concentrated mega-cap technology after recent weakness and diversifies across healthcare, financials, rate-sensitive real estate, energy, and equal-weight US equities.
Base forecasts favor active holdings over SPY because SPY and Nasdaq entered the window weak while several non-mega-cap sectors showed positive relative strength. Allocation is capped by cluster and volatility risk, with no non-SPY cluster above 50%.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "If broad earnings and risk appetite stabilize after the one-week decline, SPY could recover into scheduled macro releases.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.0% for the July 17 session and down 1.6% for the week.",
"SPY return_5s was -1.54% and return_21s was -0.68%.",
"SPY volatility_63s was 13.13% and distance_52w_high was -1.89%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY fails to recover relative to equal-weight and defensive sectors while breadth remains negative.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Recent weak breadth, soft payroll growth, and mega-cap/growth weakness could continue to weigh on cap-weighted SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC on July 28-29, Q2 GDP/PCE/ECI on July 30-31, July employment, and July CPI/PPI before exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Lower-beta healthcare leadership can persist if weaker payroll data and lower monthly CPI support defensive rotation and lower rate pressure.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE active_return_21s was 6.48%.",
"HEALTHCARE return_5s was 0.16% while SPY return_5s was -1.54%.",
"HEALTHCARE beta_spy_252s was 0.327 and distance_52w_high was -2.04%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses recent relative strength versus SPY or breaks materially below its 63-session drawdown range before exit.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A broad risk-on rebound led by high-beta technology could leave healthcare behind despite recent relative strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30-31 PCE/ECI, August 3-7 labor data, and August 12-13 CPI/PPI could reinforce lower-rate and defensive-equity demand."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent relative strength can continue if the yield backdrop supports net interest income and upcoming credit data do not show deterioration.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS active_return_21s was 4.56% and return_5s was 0.99%.",
"FINANCIALS distance_52w_high was -0.86%.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.55% and the 30-year yield was 5.06% on July 17."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp renewed flattening of the curve, adverse SLOOS credit signal, or XLF underperforming SPY over the next week invalidates the case.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls, loan tightening, or recession concerns could pressure banks and insurers despite recent performance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC on July 28-29, Senior Loan Officer Survey, July employment data, and July CPI/PPI can affect yield-curve and credit expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent strength near a 52-week high can persist if disinflation and soft labor data reduce upward pressure on rates.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"REAL_ESTATE return_5s was 2.18% and active_return_21s was 2.28%.",
"REAL_ESTATE distance_52w_high was -0.09%.",
"June CPI decreased 0.4% month over month and core CPI was unchanged for the month."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.7,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year Treasury yields push materially above the July 17 level or XLRE reverses below recent support and underperforms SPY.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Long yields could rise on inflation releases or Fed messaging, pressuring rate-sensitive real estate.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC communication, PCE/ECI, employment, and CPI/PPI releases before exit can move rate expectations and REIT valuations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sector relative strength can continue if crude-price momentum and EIA petroleum data keep supply-risk or inventory concerns elevated.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY return_5s was 4.72% and active_return_21s was 5.63%.",
"Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 market session.",
"EIA forecast Brent crude at a $74 third-quarter average after averaging $85 in June."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude oil gives back the July 17 surge or EIA data show bearish inventory/supply signals that reverse energy-sector relative strength.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The EIA forecast for a lower third-quarter Brent average and high volatility create risk that the recent oil move reverses.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA petroleum reports before exit and follow-through after Brent rose 4.6% in the July 17 session."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth improvement and lower mega-cap concentration can help if market leadership broadens beyond technology growth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 return_5s was -0.43% versus SPY at -1.54%.",
"EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 active_return_21s was 1.64%.",
"EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 volatility_63s was 11.01%, below SPY volatility_63s of 13.13%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Market-cap-weighted SPY reclaims leadership versus RSP or breadth deteriorates with declining issues persistently overwhelming advancers.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "If mega-cap growth rebounds sharply, cap-weighted SPY may outperform equal weight.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP/PCE/ECI, July employment, and CPI/PPI releases may sustain breadth improvement if rates and growth expectations stabilize."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong recent relative strength and proximity to highs could persist if growth-stock sentiment stabilizes.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"CYBERSECURITY active_return_21s was 9.33% and prior_105s_active_return was 8.70%.",
"CYBERSECURITY volatility_63s was 32.46%.",
"CYBERSECURITY distance_52w_high was -2.50%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "CIBR loses positive relative strength or technology-and-growth weakness broadens further.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and broader technology-and-growth weakness could trigger mean reversion over the one-month horizon.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro releases and FOMC communication affecting growth-stock rates sensitivity; no sector-specific catalyst supplied."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cash-like Treasury bill exposure should remain stable if short rates stay near current levels.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SHORT_TREASURY return_5s was 0.05% and volatility_63s was 0.21%.",
"Three-month Treasury yield was 3.85% on July 17.",
"SHORT_TREASURY distance_52w_high was 0.00%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp unexpected shift in short-rate expectations or liquidity stress causes BIL to underperform its cash-like profile.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Low volatility also limits upside relative to equities if risk assets recover during the scoring window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC on July 28-29 can affect expectations for short-term rates, though one-month price sensitivity is limited."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.74,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Mega-cap technology rebounds sharply and SPY outperforms the sector/value/defensive tilt.",
"July CPI/PPI or PCE/ECI data reaccelerate inflation and lift yields, hurting real estate and equities.",
"Labor or credit data weaken enough to pressure financials, cyclicals, and broad risk appetite.",
"Oil reverses after its sharp July 17 gain, dragging energy holdings."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses recent relative strength versus SPY or breaks materially below its 63-session drawdown range before exit.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare has strong 21-session active performance with lower beta than SPY and can benefit if weak labor data and disinflation support defensive rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30-31 PCE/ECI, August 3-7 labor data, and August 12-13 CPI/PPI could reinforce lower-rate and defensive-equity demand."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp renewed flattening of the curve, adverse SLOOS credit signal, or XLF underperforming SPY over the next week invalidates the case.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials show positive recent breadth/relative strength, low distance from 52-week high, and may benefit from a still-positive nominal-rate backdrop if credit fears do not rise.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC on July 28-29, Senior Loan Officer Survey, July employment data, and July CPI/PPI can affect yield-curve and credit expectations."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year Treasury yields push materially above the July 17 level or XLRE reverses below recent support and underperforms SPY.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Real estate is near a 52-week high and has positive 5- and 21-session active returns; softer inflation and payroll data could support rate-sensitive assets.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC communication, PCE/ECI, employment, and CPI/PPI releases before exit can move rate expectations and REIT valuations."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude oil gives back the July 17 surge or EIA data show bearish inventory/supply signals that reverse energy-sector relative strength.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy has strong 5- and 21-session active returns and supplied oil-market facts include a sharp Brent move, but position size is limited by volatility and reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA petroleum reports before exit and follow-through after Brent rose 4.6% in the July 17 session."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Market-cap-weighted SPY reclaims leadership versus RSP or breadth deteriorates with declining issues persistently overwhelming advancers.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Equal-weight S&P 500 has outperformed SPY over 5 and 21 sessions, consistent with rotation away from mega-cap weakness while retaining broad US equity exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP/PCE/ECI, July employment, and CPI/PPI releases may sustain breadth improvement if rates and growth expectations stabilize."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.24,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts toward areas with supplied evidence of recent relative strength and plausible one-month catalysts from rates, inflation, labor, and energy data. It avoids concentrated mega-cap technology after recent weakness and diversifies across healthcare, financials, rate-sensitive real estate, energy, and equal-weight US equities.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Base forecasts favor active holdings over SPY because SPY and Nasdaq entered the window weak while several non-mega-cap sectors showed positive relative strength. Allocation is capped by cluster and volatility risk, with no non-SPY cluster above 50%.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12864,
"latency_seconds": 34.57712538796477,
"output_tokens": 2870,
"reasoning_tokens": 192,
"total_tokens": 15734
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}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio emphasizes the supplied evidence of market broadening, defensive healthcare strength, regional-bank momentum, and energy resilience rather than recently weak mega-cap growth. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no capped economic-exposure cluster exceeds 30%.
A softer labor market and benign monthly core CPI favor rotation and defensive exposure, while still-elevated inflation and long yields constrain broad-market upside. The allocation targets four distinct clusters with supplied relative-strength or macro support.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Positive GDP growth, resilient retail sales, and monthly core-CPI relief could support a rebound from the weekly decline.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned -0.68% over 21 sessions and -1.54% over five sessions.",
"June core CPI was unchanged month over month, but core PCE inflation remained 3.4% year over year.",
"Market breadth was weak on July 17, with decliners substantially exceeding advancers."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A decisive improvement in breadth and SPY recovery to a new 52-week high would invalidate the muted base case.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak payroll growth, elevated long yields, and narrow breadth could extend the pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC, advance second-quarter GDP, July employment report, and August CPI and PPI releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broadening away from concentrated large-cap growth continues while positive domestic growth prevents a severe earnings downgrade.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Small value outperformed SPY by 3.52 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"Its prior 105-session active return was also positive at 3.34%.",
"Equal-weight SPY outperformed SPY over both five and 21 sessions, indicating broader participation."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -6.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained small-value underperformance versus SPY accompanied by deteriorating employment or tighter lending conditions.",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls and tighter credit conditions could disproportionately hurt smaller companies and reverse the factor rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, advance second-quarter GDP, and the July Employment Situation may reinforce broadening if growth remains positive and policy does not turn more restrictive."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists as labor growth softens and investors reduce exposure to higher-beta technology leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare outperformed SPY by 6.48 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"Its 63-session volatility of 18.26% was well below several high-beta thematic exposures.",
"June payroll growth slowed to 57,000 with downward revisions, supporting defensive exposure."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses its recent relative-strength trend and falls below SPY through the macro-release sequence.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "The strong 21-session move could mean-revert, especially because prior 105-session active return was -11.70%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Late-July GDP and PCE data plus the August employment and inflation releases may favor defensive earnings exposure if growth softens without a renewed inflation shock."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A stable Fed stance, no major lending deterioration, and a positive two-to-ten-year slope sustain the recent rerating.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Regional banks outperformed SPY by 7.10 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"They gained 2.23% over five sessions despite SPY declining 1.54%.",
"The two-year Treasury yield was 4.18% and the ten-year yield was 4.55%, leaving that curve segment positively sloped."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "A materially tighter Senior Loan Officer survey, renewed curve flattening, or regional-bank underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Weak employment, commercial-credit concerns, or renewed curve flattening could quickly reverse the move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC decision and early-August Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey can improve sentiment if policy and lending conditions are no worse than expected."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil-price strength and established medium-term relative momentum continue as near-term supply conditions remain supportive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy outperformed SPY by 5.63 percentage points over 21 sessions and gained 4.72% over five sessions.",
"Its prior 105-session active return was positive at 6.96%.",
"Brent crude rose 4.6% on July 17, although the EIA forecast a $74 third-quarter average versus $85 in June."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -10,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses its July 17 surge and energy equities lose their positive 21-session active-return trend.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The sharp oil move unwinds toward the EIA's lower third-quarter forecast, pressuring producer earnings expectations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA petroleum reports through the exit date may sustain the move if inventories and supply conditions remain supportive."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Further labor-market cooling and benign inflation releases pull intermediate yields lower.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Intermediate Treasuries gained 0.22% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 0.29 percentage point over 21 sessions.",
"June payroll growth was only 57,000 with downward revisions.",
"The ten-year Treasury yield remained elevated at 4.55% amid upside inflation uncertainty."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The ten-year yield rises materially above its July 17 level as inflation expectations firm.",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Persistent core inflation or a hawkish FOMC pushes yields higher and offsets the defensive-growth case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC, July employment report, and August CPI and PPI releases directly affect rate expectations before exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The established relative-strength trend persists despite weakness in broader technology and growth exposures.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Cybersecurity outperformed SPY by 9.33 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"Its prior 105-session active return was also positive at 8.70%.",
"Its 63-session volatility was high at 32.46%, and it remained 2.50% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 14,
"forecast_low_pct": -11,
"invalidation_condition": "Cybersecurity underperforms SPY after the FOMC or breaks its recent relative-strength trend on rising volume.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "The recent outperformance lacks a specific supplied fundamental catalyst and could reverse during a high-volatility growth-factor selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No specific cybersecurity catalyst was identified; FOMC and inflation releases may affect growth-stock discount rates."
}
],
"confidence": 0.59,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.93,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July CPI or PPI reaccelerates, lifting yields and pressuring rate-sensitive equities.",
"Payroll weakness develops into a sharper growth or credit scare, hurting small-value and regional banks.",
"The recent rotation reverses and mega-cap growth resumes leadership before the exit close.",
"Crude oil reverses as the EIA's lower third-quarter Brent forecast becomes dominant."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained small-value underperformance versus SPY accompanied by deteriorating employment or tighter lending conditions.",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Recent small-value strength and broader market participation support continued rotation away from concentrated large-cap growth, while the weak labor backdrop limits conviction.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, advance second-quarter GDP, and the July Employment Situation may reinforce broadening if growth remains positive and policy does not turn more restrictive."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses its recent relative-strength trend and falls below SPY through the macro-release sequence.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare offers defensive exposure amid softer payroll growth and has demonstrated strong benchmark-relative momentum, though its weak preceding trend warrants moderation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Late-July GDP and PCE data plus the August employment and inflation releases may favor defensive earnings exposure if growth softens without a renewed inflation shock."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "A materially tighter Senior Loan Officer survey, renewed curve flattening, or regional-bank underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative performance and a positively sloped two-to-ten-year Treasury segment support the near-term case, balanced against credit sensitivity.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC decision and early-August Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey can improve sentiment if policy and lending conditions are no worse than expected."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses its July 17 surge and energy equities lose their positive 21-session active-return trend.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy has positive short- and medium-term momentum with support from the latest Brent surge, but the lower EIA third-quarter price forecast argues for a smaller allocation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA petroleum reports through the exit date may sustain the move if inventories and supply conditions remain supportive."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.53,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes the supplied evidence of market broadening, defensive healthcare strength, regional-bank momentum, and energy resilience rather than recently weak mega-cap growth. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no capped economic-exposure cluster exceeds 30%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "A softer labor market and benign monthly core CPI favor rotation and defensive exposure, while still-elevated inflation and long yields constrain broad-market upside. The allocation targets four distinct clusters with supplied relative-strength or macro support.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12866,
"latency_seconds": 50.584388700081035,
"output_tokens": 3072,
"reasoning_tokens": 914,
"total_tokens": 15938
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Energy and value exposures selected for base forecasts exceeding SPY amid cooling inflation and mixed growth data.
Four holdings across distinct clusters with bases above SPY forecast; 40% energy cap respected.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad equity recovery on stable rates",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.0% July 17",
"June nonfarm payrolls +57k with downward revisions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI rises above 3.8% YoY",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further downside on weak growth prints",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil price strength persists into Q3",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE +4.72% 5-day return",
"Brent averaged $85 in June"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 4,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $80 sustained",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA production forecast weighs on prices",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum report July 21-22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation continues on growth concerns",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWN +1.08% 5-day return",
"IWN +3.52% active 21-day return"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth stocks rebound sharply",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and PPI releases August 12-13"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate stability supports bank margins",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF +0.99% 5-day return",
"XLF +4.56% active 21-day return"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Yield curve inverts further",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit spreads widen materially",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation into rate-sensitive assets",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLRE +2.18% 5-day return",
"XLRE +2.28% active 21-day return"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield exceeds 4.8%",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Long-term yields spike",
"time_window_catalyst": "BEA Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dividend stability attracts flows",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD +1.57% 5-day return"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Market volatility exceeds 20%",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Broad market rally favors growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive sector demand holds",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLV +0.16% 5-day return",
"XLV +6.48% active 21-day return"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector drawdown exceeds 5%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Biotech volatility spills over",
"time_window_catalyst": "BLS Employment Situation August 7"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.7,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further equity market decline on weak payroll revisions",
"Oil price reversal below $80",
"FOMC signals tighter policy than expected"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $80 sustained",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent performance and energy price data support outperformance versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum report July 21-22 and FOMC July 29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 3,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Positive recent returns and value tilt amid weak growth data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and PPI releases August 12-13"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Yield curve inverts further",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive recent active returns and rate environment support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield exceeds 4.8%",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Recent positive returns in rate-sensitive defensive sector.",
"time_window_catalyst": "BEA Q2 GDP July 30"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 3.2,
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy and value exposures selected for base forecasts exceeding SPY amid cooling inflation and mixed growth data.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Four holdings across distinct clusters with bases above SPY forecast; 40% energy cap respected.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 13093,
"latency_seconds": 11.510617749067023,
"output_tokens": 1542,
"reasoning_tokens": 741,
"total_tokens": 15376
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in clusters showing positive active returns and relative resilience amid soft inflation prints, modest growth, and pre-FOMC positioning, avoiding recently weak tech/growth. All selected bases exceed SPY base while respecting 50% cluster cap.
SPY base modest given recent weakness and mixed data; energy, financials, healthcare and small-value offer higher base forecasts from supplied relative strength and macro schedule. Equal 25% weights balance exposures.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Soft landing data and stable funds rate support modest grind higher from oversold weekly levels.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY return_5s -1.54% and return_21s -0.68% with distance_52w_high -1.89%",
"June CPI -0.4% m/m and soft payrolls +57k with downward revisions",
"FOMC scheduled July 28-29 with participant inflation uncertainty elevated"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Close below recent weekly lows with rising vol",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further breadth deterioration or hawkish FOMC drives extension of recent weekly decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply tightness and momentum persist through summer data and FOMC window.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY return_5s +4.72% and active_return_21s +5.63%; OIL return_5s +14.04%",
"Brent averaged $85 in June and rose 4.6% on July 17 session",
"EIA weekly petroleum reports scheduled before exit"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "USO/XLE give back majority of 5s gains on rising inventories",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA Q3 Brent forecast $74 materializes via inventory builds or demand soft patch.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum and FOMC inflation commentary"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable curve and non-recession labor data sustain financials relative bid.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS active_return_21s +4.56% and REGIONAL_BANKS +7.10%",
"Fed held 3.5-3.75% range; Treasury 10y at 4.55% on July 17",
"June payrolls soft but unemployment 4.2% and earnings +0.3% m/m"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperforms SPY by >2% on rising HYG spreads",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit widening or deposit/CRE concerns re-emerge around loan officer survey.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and Senior Loan Officer Survey early August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid and relative strength continue if growth data mixed and inflation cools.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE active_return_21s +6.48% with max_drawdown_63s only -4.01%",
"June core CPI unchanged m/m; core PCE 3.4% y/y",
"July CPI/PPI scheduled August 12-13"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses relative strength vs SPY on strong risk appetite",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation back to growth or policy surprise hits defensives.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI August 12-13 and Q2 GDP"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value and smaller-cap leadership persists with domestic data not collapsing.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SMALL_VALUE return_5s +1.08% and active_return_21s +3.52%",
"rsp_minus_spy_21s +1.64% showing equal-weight/value leadership",
"Soft but positive industrial production and retail sales data"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWN active return turns negative vs SPY by >2%",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Rates spike or recession scare hits high-beta small value.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and employment situation early August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Momentum from prior 21s extends if rates stable and risk appetite holds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"BIOTECH active_return_21s +14.77% but return_5s -3.00% and vol_63s 30.26%",
"distance_52w_high -6.10% with max_drawdown_63s -8.57%",
"High sensitivity to risk appetite and financing conditions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "XBI breaks below recent 5s lows with rising correlation to risk-off",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"reversal_case": "Volatility spike or growth scare triggers sharp mean reversion given high vol.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and any biotech-specific flows around data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued preference for value over growth into FOMC.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE return_5s +0.48% and active_return_21s +2.77%",
"distance_52w_high only -0.57% and lower vol than growth",
"Value leadership vs NASDAQ100/TECH which posted large negative 5s/21s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD lags SPY as QQQ/XLK reverse higher",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound on dovish pivot or AI narrative revival.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Idiosyncratic strength continues independent of mega-cap tech.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"CYBERSECURITY active_return_21s +9.33% but technology_and_growth cluster mixed",
"vol_63s 32.46% and corr_spy 0.534",
"Recent 5s only +0.52% amid broader tech weakness"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "CIBR correlates fully with XLK/SMH downside",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "High-vol growth factor selloff engulfs cybersecurity.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None specific beyond broad tech sentiment around FOMC"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.8,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC hawkish surprise or upside inflation reprint reversing value/energy leadership",
"Oil price mean-reversion per EIA Q3 forecast undercutting energy",
"Growth scare from weak payrolls/GDP hitting small-value and financials",
"Broad equity drawdown from high starting levels despite sector tilts"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent or USO sharp reversal below recent session gains with inventory builds",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Recent oil strength and energy outperformance supported by supply dynamics into FOMC and data window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum reports and any FOMC energy/inflation commentary by July 29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp steepening or credit stress signals in HYG or bank underperformance vs SPY",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Relative strength in financials and regional banks amid stable rates and soft but non-recession labor data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and July employment/JOLTS releases early August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-off rotation or underperformance vs low-vol/defensives on weak data",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong 21-session active return and defensive characteristics with upcoming inflation and GDP data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI August 12-13 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Renewed large-growth leadership or small-cap relative drawdown exceeding 3%",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Positive recent active returns and value tilt favored in equal-weight/value leadership vs mega-cap growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and advance GDP/personal income data late July"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.4,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in clusters showing positive active returns and relative resilience amid soft inflation prints, modest growth, and pre-FOMC positioning, avoiding recently weak tech/growth. All selected bases exceed SPY base while respecting 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base modest given recent weakness and mixed data; energy, financials, healthcare and small-value offer higher base forecasts from supplied relative strength and macro schedule. Equal 25% weights balance exposures.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 13893,
"latency_seconds": 45.49888648907654,
"output_tokens": 2621,
"reasoning_tokens": 706,
"total_tokens": 17220
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%S&P 500 (SPY)20% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Crude Oil (USO)40%Regional Banks (KRE)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)10% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Regional Banks (KRE)25%Energy Sector (XLE)15% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)40%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)20% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)25% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-17 | 230.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-17 | 93.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-17 | 27.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-17 | 28.75 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-17 | 116.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-17 | 154.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-17 | 36.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-17 | 35.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-17 | 58.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-17 | 17.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-17 | 59.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-17 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-17 | 52.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-17 | 110.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-17 | 115.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-17 | 85.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-17 | 37.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-17 | 123.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-17 | 92.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-17 | 69.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-17 | 95.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-17 | 57.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-17 | 57.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-17 | 213.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-17 | 13.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-17 | 105.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-17 | 88.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-17 | 56.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-17 | 75.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-17 | 161.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-17 | 79.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-17 | 48.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-17 | 179.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-17 | 93.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-17 | 47.93 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-17 | 107.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-17 | 90.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-17 | 56.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-17 | 84.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-17 | 50.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-17 | 98.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-17 | 75.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-17 | 106.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-17 | 695.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-17 | 45.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-17 | 76.69 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-17 | 743.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-17 | 556.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-17 | 91.55 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-17 | 50.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-17 | 92.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-17 | 53.90 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-17 | 62.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-17 | 162.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-17 | 97.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-17 | 175.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-17 | 367.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-17 | 108.27 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-17 | 46.94 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-17 | 98.20 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-17 | 32.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-17 | 28.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-17 | 119.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-17 | 248.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-17 | 76.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-17 | 75.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-17 | 302.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-17 | 294.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-17 | 222.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-17 | 45.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 24a4830b8843...7ce98300 |
| manifest.yaml | 5e8d5944f650...c12144c9 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | a1c3eb9f5214...404dee3f |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 3ab48e99149d...e0140c38 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 10b851807b1a...ddcc0f5f |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 9d3b822878f9...b55d01cb |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 10a5f0e81e2d...e1bce58e |
| submission_schema.json | f74e11a346ed...4031ce88 |