Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 34.6 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Grok 4.3 is lowest at 3.7.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +36.79%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 65.2 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-11-02 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
20261005-023400-official
31,723 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Financials Sector (XLF)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-04-1M
- Decision date: 2026-10-04
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-05T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-10-02
- Exit date: 2026-11-02
- Entry rule: Use the October 2, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Exit rule: Use the November 2, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — October 4, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z. The latest completed U.S. session is Friday, October 2.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current macro picture
September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. July payroll growth was revised from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; together, the two prior months were revised down by 60,000. Labor-force participation was 61.8%, the employment-population ratio was 59.2%, average hourly earnings increased 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year, and the average workweek was 34.4 hours. The September estimate is preliminary, and the reported one-month payroll change was smaller than the statistical-significance threshold described by the reporting agency.
Manufacturing remained in expansion in September. The headline manufacturing diffusion index was 54.5, with production at 56.7, new orders at 55.3, order backlogs at 56.4, and employment at 52.7. Input-price pressure increased: the prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9. Survey commentary was more cautious than the index readings, with 60% of comments categorized as negative and recurring concern about pricing volatility, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.
August consumption and inflation data showed nominal consumer spending up 0.9% and real spending up 0.6% over the month. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income rose 0.3%, and the saving rate was 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% over the month and 3.4% over the year; excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year. These data incorporated an annual statistical update with revisions extending back to 2021.
The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was a 2.2% annualized increase after revised 2.5% growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed to the second-quarter increase.
## Policy, rates, and markets
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Median participant projections for 2026 were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. Those projections are conditional individual assessments rather than a promised policy path.
On October 2, constant-maturity Treasury yields were 4.46% at one year, 4.83% at two years, 5.06% at five years, 5.28% at ten years, and 5.63% at thirty years. Compared with September 30, those yields were lower by 8, 5, 3, 1, and 1 basis points, respectively. The figures are interpolated from indicative bid quotations rather than transaction prices.
U.S. equities rose on October 2. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 7,722.72, the Dow gained 0.5% to 51,176.96, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% to 27,190.86, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.9% to 2,832.90. Over the full week, the respective changes were -0.3%, -1.3%, +0.5%, and -0.2%. Official entry prices for this round are supplied separately in the frozen CapitalBench price file.
Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels in the week ending September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable week a year earlier. Weekly inventory estimates are survey based and may be revised.
The European Central Bank raised its three key policy rates by 25 basis points in September, placing the deposit rate at 2.50%. Its baseline projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, while identifying upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
## Events within the horizons
Before the weekly exit, scheduled releases include September ISM services on October 5, August U.S. trade and the energy outlook on October 6, weekly petroleum data on October 7, and August wholesale sales and inventories on October 8.
Before the monthly exit, the calendar also includes September CPI on October 14; September PPI and retail sales on October 15; housing starts on October 20; durable-goods orders and new-home sales on October 27; an FOMC meeting on October 27-28; advance trade, retail, and wholesale indicators on October 28; advance third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29; and the Employment Cost Index on October 30. September construction spending is scheduled for 10:00 ET on November 2, after the regular equity-market open.
The current evidence combines slower payroll growth and downward employment revisions with ongoing manufacturing expansion, positive real consumption growth, elevated inflation readings, high manufacturing input-price pressure, and long-term Treasury yields above 5%. Upcoming releases may materially change this mix; their outcomes were unknown at the research cutoff.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-04-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-04'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-05T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-05T02:27:08.500691+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the October 2, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
exit_rule: Use the November 2, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
entry_date: '2026-10-02'
exit_date: '2026-11-02'
created_at: '2026-10-05T02:27:08.500691+00:00'
notes: 'Weekend decision round using the latest completed U.S. session, Friday October 2, as the entry date. Fresh direct-public-source research cutoff: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z.'# Market Briefing — October 4, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z. The latest completed U.S. session is Friday, October 2.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current macro picture
September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. July payroll growth was revised from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; together, the two prior months were revised down by 60,000. Labor-force participation was 61.8%, the employment-population ratio was 59.2%, average hourly earnings increased 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year, and the average workweek was 34.4 hours. The September estimate is preliminary, and the reported one-month payroll change was smaller than the statistical-significance threshold described by the reporting agency.
Manufacturing remained in expansion in September. The headline manufacturing diffusion index was 54.5, with production at 56.7, new orders at 55.3, order backlogs at 56.4, and employment at 52.7. Input-price pressure increased: the prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9. Survey commentary was more cautious than the index readings, with 60% of comments categorized as negative and recurring concern about pricing volatility, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.
August consumption and inflation data showed nominal consumer spending up 0.9% and real spending up 0.6% over the month. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income rose 0.3%, and the saving rate was 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% over the month and 3.4% over the year; excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year. These data incorporated an annual statistical update with revisions extending back to 2021.
The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was a 2.2% annualized increase after revised 2.5% growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed to the second-quarter increase.
## Policy, rates, and markets
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Median participant projections for 2026 were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. Those projections are conditional individual assessments rather than a promised policy path.
On October 2, constant-maturity Treasury yields were 4.46% at one year, 4.83% at two years, 5.06% at five years, 5.28% at ten years, and 5.63% at thirty years. Compared with September 30, those yields were lower by 8, 5, 3, 1, and 1 basis points, respectively. The figures are interpolated from indicative bid quotations rather than transaction prices.
U.S. equities rose on October 2. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 7,722.72, the Dow gained 0.5% to 51,176.96, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% to 27,190.86, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.9% to 2,832.90. Over the full week, the respective changes were -0.3%, -1.3%, +0.5%, and -0.2%. Official entry prices for this round are supplied separately in the frozen CapitalBench price file.
Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels in the week ending September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable week a year earlier. Weekly inventory estimates are survey based and may be revised.
The European Central Bank raised its three key policy rates by 25 basis points in September, placing the deposit rate at 2.50%. Its baseline projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, while identifying upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
## Events within the horizons
Before the weekly exit, scheduled releases include September ISM services on October 5, August U.S. trade and the energy outlook on October 6, weekly petroleum data on October 7, and August wholesale sales and inventories on October 8.
Before the monthly exit, the calendar also includes September CPI on October 14; September PPI and retail sales on October 15; housing starts on October 20; durable-goods orders and new-home sales on October 27; an FOMC meeting on October 27-28; advance trade, retail, and wholesale indicators on October 28; advance third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29; and the Employment Cost Index on October 30. September construction spending is scheduled for 10:00 ET on November 2, after the regular equity-market open.
The current evidence combines slower payroll growth and downward employment revisions with ongoing manufacturing expansion, positive real consumption growth, elevated inflation readings, high manufacturing input-price pressure, and long-term Treasury yields above 5%. Upcoming releases may materially change this mix; their outcomes were unknown at the research cutoff.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Only Financials passes as an overreaction with a steep curve, top quality score and in-window bank earnings; its edge is modest. Small value and dividend pullbacks are plausible mean-reversion candidates but lack independent catalysts under a hiking Fed and 5%+ yields, so they are left as no_edge. Tech continuation leaders carry extended positioning and high beta into FOMC; metals and bond laggards reflect fundamental rate and dollar pressure rather than overreaction. Default to SPY for remaining slots.
Narrow mega-cap tech leadership (SPY +0.8% vs RSP -3.7% over 21 sessions, only 32% of assets positive) alongside a hiking Fed, 10y above 5.25%, hot ISM prices and weak payrolls. Bonds, gold, defensives and most cyclicals are in drawdown. Into an FOMC (Oct 27-28), CPI (Oct 14) and Q3 earnings season, concentration risk and rate pressure argue for modest expectations of any broad-based reversal; only a few pullbacks look like temporary overreactions with intact medium-term trends.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC on Oct 27-28 or hot CPI on Oct 14 pushes yields higher, hurting financials via credit concerns and all rate-sensitive assets",
"Continued mega-cap tech leadership keeps SPY ahead of value, equal-weight and financials",
"Weak labor data (29k payrolls, negative revisions) tips into growth scare, widening credit spreads and hitting bank stocks",
"Q3 bank earnings disappoint on credit costs or deposit pricing"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -7.74% after flat prior active -0.15%; highest quality score 0.781 in universe",
"Vol 12.5%, drawdown -8.5%; steep curve (2y 4.83%, 30y 5.63%) supports net interest margins",
"Q3 bank earnings reported mid-October fall inside the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.25% with prior active -0.50%; quality score 0.727",
"Rising long yields and weak payrolls (29k, -60k revisions) weigh on small caps; manufacturing PMI 54.5 supportive"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.63%, prior active -1.49%; low beta 0.26 and vol 11.3%",
"Quality score 0.746; concentration unwind would help but 5%+ Treasury yields compete with dividend yield"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.13% on top of prior -11.54%; persistent relative weakness",
"ISM prices index 77.9 and strong dollar (UUP +2.6% 21s) are mixed for materials"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active +13.72% recent and +23.35% prior; vol 39%, beta 2.4, drawdown -17.5%",
"Q3 earnings season inside window; volume z -0.78 shows fading participation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"At 52-week high, prior active +28.88%, recent +11.10%; strongest prior rank 0.985",
"Extended positioning raises reversal risk into FOMC and earnings"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"At 52-week high with prior active +37.66%; recent active +5.47% but volume z -0.78",
"Strong dollar headwind for unhedged foreign exposure"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Vol 58.7%, beta 2.83, drawdown -24%; prior active +28.6% but 12.5% off highs",
"Highest volatility in universe makes outcome largely noise"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark near 52-week high (-0.81%), 21s return +0.83% while RSP -3.70%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -12.26%, prior -9.06%, 20% off highs; gold -5.6% and silver -27% prior active",
"Fed hiking and dollar strength (UUP +2.56% 21s) continue to pressure metals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -10.55% after prior -11.88%; 21% off highs",
"Resource-heavy, exposed to precious metals weakness and strong dollar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 7.79 signals heavy flows; prior active -17.77%",
"Fed hiking, 10y 5.28%, PCE 3.4% y/y keep duration under pressure"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.46; recent active -4.39%, prior -17.68%",
"Rates rising with Fed at 3.75-4.00% and more hikes possible at Oct 27-28 FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"48% below 52-week high, prior active -27.18%, recent -8.17%",
"Rising real yields and dollar strength are a direct headwind; vol 38.8%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SILVER",
"MATERIALS",
"FINANCIALS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Narrow mega-cap tech leadership (SPY +0.8% vs RSP -3.7% over 21 sessions, only 32% of assets positive) alongside a hiking Fed, 10y above 5.25%, hot ISM prices and weak payrolls. Bonds, gold, defensives and most cyclicals are in drawdown. Into an FOMC (Oct 27-28), CPI (Oct 14) and Q3 earnings season, concentration risk and rate pressure argue for modest expectations of any broad-based reversal; only a few pullbacks look like temporary overreactions with intact medium-term trends.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"DIVIDEND"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Financials passes as an overreaction with a steep curve, top quality score and in-window bank earnings; its edge is modest. Small value and dividend pullbacks are plausible mean-reversion candidates but lack independent catalysts under a hiking Fed and 5%+ yields, so they are left as no_edge. Tech continuation leaders carry extended positioning and high beta into FOMC; metals and bond laggards reflect fundamental rate and dollar pressure rather than overreaction. Default to SPY for remaining slots.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Narrow mega-cap tech leadership (SPY +0.8% vs RSP -3.7% over 21 sessions, only 32% of assets positive) alongside a hiking Fed, 10y above 5.25%, hot ISM prices and weak payrolls. Bonds, gold, defensives and most cyclicals are in drawdown. Into an FOMC (Oct 27-28), CPI (Oct 14) and Q3 earnings season, concentration risk and rate pressure argue for modest expectations of any broad-based reversal; only a few pullbacks look like temporary overreactions with intact medium-term trends.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27846,
"latency_seconds": 43.77952370600542,
"output_tokens": 3697,
"total_tokens": 31543
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
Only Financials meets the overreaction test: a high-quality pullback with a flat prior trend and a steep curve supporting margins, though its edge is marginal. The tech leaders show supported continuation but are not reversal-eligible. Commodity laggards face a strong dollar and rising real yields, which reads as deterioration rather than overreaction.
Narrow cap-weighted, tech-led market: RSP lagged SPY by 4.5pts over 21 sessions and only 32% of assets were positive. Rising yields (10y 5.28%), a Fed hike, a strong dollar, and widening HY weakness point to tightening conditions. CPI, the FOMC on Oct 27-28, and GDP/PCE all fall inside the window, so broad reversal of the laggards is not strongly supported.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hot CPI or a hawkish FOMC on Oct 27-28 drives yields higher and hits equities broadly",
"Credit stress (HYG -2.78%) spreads to financials",
"A narrow tech leadership reversal causes large active swings",
"A weak labor trend leads to a growth scare"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality score on the slate (0.781) with a flat prior trend (-0.15%)",
"21-session active return of -7.74% with beta 0.62",
"Steep curve with 10y at 5.28% supports net interest margins"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return of +13.72% over 21 sessions and +23.35% prior",
"Volatility of 39% and beta of 2.38"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"At its 52-week high with +28.88% prior active return",
"Positive volume z-score (0.18)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of +37.66% and at its 52-week high",
"Volatility of 34%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return of -6.63% over 21 sessions with a quality score of 0.746",
"Low beta of 0.26 lags in a cap-weighted rally"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volatility of 58.7% and drawdown of -24%",
"Prior active return of +28.6%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return of -5.25% over 21 sessions",
"Long yields above 5% weigh on small-cap financing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of -11.54% and recent -8.13%",
"Strong dollar (UUP +2.56%)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 7.79, consistent with outflows",
"Yields are rising"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 4.46",
"Rate pressure following the Fed hike"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return of -12.26% over 21 sessions with volatility of 36%",
"Strong dollar and weak metals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return of -10.55% amid gold weakness",
"Dollar strength"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"48% below its 52-week high with a prior active return of -27%",
"Rising real yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SILVER",
"MATERIALS",
"FINANCIALS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation",
"market_rationale": "Narrow cap-weighted, tech-led market: RSP lagged SPY by 4.5pts over 21 sessions and only 32% of assets were positive. Rising yields (10y 5.28%), a Fed hike, a strong dollar, and widening HY weakness point to tightening conditions. CPI, the FOMC on Oct 27-28, and GDP/PCE all fall inside the window, so broad reversal of the laggards is not strongly supported.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Financials meets the overreaction test: a high-quality pullback with a flat prior trend and a steep curve supporting margins, though its edge is marginal. The tech leaders show supported continuation but are not reversal-eligible. Commodity laggards face a strong dollar and rising real yields, which reads as deterioration rather than overreaction.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Narrow cap-weighted, tech-led market: RSP lagged SPY by 4.5pts over 21 sessions and only 32% of assets were positive. Rising yields (10y 5.28%), a Fed hike, a strong dollar, and widening HY weakness point to tightening conditions. CPI, the FOMC on Oct 27-28, and GDP/PCE all fall inside the window, so broad reversal of the laggards is not strongly supported.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27846,
"latency_seconds": 26.048789719003253,
"output_tokens": 3093,
"total_tokens": 30939
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks, interpreting these as overreactions in a mixed macro environment. Financials, Dividend Equities, and Small-Cap Value offer strong quality evidence scores and potential for reversal against the benchmark.
The macro environment shows mixed signals with downward payroll revisions and cautious manufacturing commentary, offset by positive real consumption growth and ongoing manufacturing expansion. The Fed's recent 25 bps hike and long-term Treasury yields above 5% suggest a restrictive policy stance, creating a challenging environment for equities and favoring defensive or high-quality assets.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further downward revisions in employment data could signal a sharper economic slowdown, negatively impacting cyclical sectors like Financials and Small-Cap Value.",
"Persistent inflation and high input prices could force the Fed to maintain or increase restrictive policy, pressuring equity valuations across the board."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"High quality evidence score of 0.781.",
"Recent 5-day return of -2.46% despite a strong prior active rank of 0.806."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High quality evidence score of 0.746.",
"Recent 5-day return of -1.48% with a low volatility rank of 0.701."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score of 0.727.",
"Recent 5-day return of -0.54%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank of 0.955.",
"Recent 5-day return of -1.89%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent 5-day return of -2.39%.",
"High horizon volatility of 36.32%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent 5-day return of -4.95%.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.985."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent 5-day return of -5.85%.",
"Prior active return of -27.18%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 37.66%.",
"Recent 5-day return of 1.35%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 28.88%.",
"Recent 5-day return of 3.71%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 28.60%.",
"High horizon volatility of 58.71%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent 5-day return of 3.96%.",
"Prior active return of 23.35%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 7.79.",
"Low horizon volatility of 4.39%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 4.46.",
"Low horizon volatility of 5.57%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark asset."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SILVER",
"MATERIALS",
"FINANCIALS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The macro environment shows mixed signals with downward payroll revisions and cautious manufacturing commentary, offset by positive real consumption growth and ongoing manufacturing expansion. The Fed's recent 25 bps hike and long-term Treasury yields above 5% suggest a restrictive policy stance, creating a challenging environment for equities and favoring defensive or high-quality assets.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks, interpreting these as overreactions in a mixed macro environment. Financials, Dividend Equities, and Small-Cap Value offer strong quality evidence scores and potential for reversal against the benchmark.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The macro environment shows mixed signals with downward payroll revisions and cautious manufacturing commentary, offset by positive real consumption growth and ongoing manufacturing expansion. The Fed's recent 25 bps hike and long-term Treasury yields above 5% suggest a restrictive policy stance, creating a challenging environment for equities and favoring defensive or high-quality assets.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19162,
"latency_seconds": 22.403920067998115,
"output_tokens": 3048,
"total_tokens": 22210
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Financials and dividend equities offer modest, evidence-supported reversal advantages after unusually large relative pullbacks, rather than a blanket preference for recent losers. Small value ranks third but remains below the eligibility threshold because financing and employment risks constrain confidence. The deterministic rule therefore retains a benchmark fallback. Mechanical quality scores describe price behavior, not verified balance-sheet strength.
Cross-sectional spreads are large despite the missing aggregate dispersion statistic: semiconductor 21-session active return is +13.72%, versus -12.26% for mining. Narrow equity breadth, falling credit prices, rising dollar strength and restrictive policy argue against indiscriminate dip buying. Manufacturing and consumption remain firm enough to support selective reversals, but weak employment and elevated inflation leave substantial two-sided risk around October releases and the FOMC. Recent technology leadership lacks independent sector-specific fundamental confirmation in the briefing.
{
"confidence": 0.565,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October inflation releases or the October 27-28 FOMC could produce further tightening and prevent reversal in rate-sensitive equities.",
"Weak payroll growth could develop into a credit deterioration cycle, disproportionately hurting financials and smaller companies.",
"Technology leadership could persist despite absent sector-specific confirmation, causing dividend and value exposures to lag SPY.",
"A stronger dollar and trade-policy disruption could overwhelm manufacturing expansion and deepen commodity-linked losses."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"The -7.74% recent active return contrasts with a nearly flat -0.15% prior active return and a 0.781 mechanical quality score.",
"Manufacturing new orders at 55.3 and real consumption growth of 0.6% argue against assuming a broad contraction.",
"The upward-sloping Treasury curve offers a potential earnings offset to tighter policy, although weak payrolls raise credit risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -6.63% is substantially weaker than the prior -1.49%; mechanical quality score is 0.746.",
"The supplied exposure description emphasizes profitable, mature dividend-paying companies, potentially useful as payroll growth slows.",
"Historical SPY beta is 0.258, but Treasury yields above 5% remain competition for dividend income."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -5.25% versus -0.50% in the prior window, with a 0.727 mechanical quality score.",
"Manufacturing expansion and positive real spending support a partial reversal case.",
"The September rate hike, weak payrolls and declining high-yield prices limit conviction in smaller-company recovery."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Manufacturing production of 56.7 and order backlogs of 56.4 provide a demand-based reversal argument.",
"Recent active loss of 8.13% follows a prior active loss of 11.54%, weakening the temporary-dislocation interpretation.",
"The manufacturing prices index of 77.9 and stronger dollar present margin and pricing risks."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"A -12.26% recent active return and 20.29% distance below the annual high create meaningful rebound potential.",
"Manufacturing expansion supports demand, but prior active return was already -9.06%.",
"Volatility of 36.32% and negative volume z-score of -0.81 do not establish a capitulation event."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 0.83% over 21 sessions while equal-weight S&P 500 lost 3.70%.",
"Positive consumption and manufacturing offset weak employment, while inflation and the October FOMC remain risks.",
"Its excess return against itself is identically zero."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns are +11.10% and +28.88%, with price at its annual high.",
"Volatility is 32.77%; the briefing supplies no cybersecurity-specific revenue or demand catalyst.",
"Elevated inflation and the recent rate hike prevent treating price strength alone as a continuation edge."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 7.79 is exceptional but does not identify forced selling or its completion.",
"Volatility is only 4.39%, offering defensive potential if slowing employment hurts equities.",
"The Fed raised rates and PCE inflation remains 3.4%, providing a fundamental explanation for duration weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score is 4.46 and recent active return is -4.39%, but no mortgage-spread or flow catalyst is supplied.",
"Weak payroll growth supports a rates-relief scenario.",
"Long-term Treasury yields above 5% and the September rate increase make the decline plausibly rate-driven rather than a temporary dislocation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return is +37.66% and recent active return +5.47%, with price at its annual high.",
"Volatility is 34.21% and drawdown reached 16.65%.",
"The briefing contains no Taiwan-specific earnings confirmation; dollar strength and trade-policy concerns complicate continuation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of +13.72% follows +23.35% prior active performance.",
"Volatility of 39.05%, beta of 2.377 and a -0.775 volume z-score increase reversal uncertainty.",
"No semiconductor-specific fundamental catalyst is supplied to independently validate continued leadership under tighter policy."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -10.55% follows -11.88% prior active performance, rather than interrupting a strong relative trend.",
"Dollar gains of 2.56% over 21 sessions challenge currency-sensitive international exposure.",
"A 20.92% distance below the annual high allows a rebound, but no domestic policy or earnings catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return is +28.60% and recent active return +6.44%.",
"Volatility of 58.71% and drawdown of 24.04% are extreme despite positive relative performance.",
"The briefing supplies no Korean export or earnings catalyst, while dollar strength and trade-policy concerns remain adverse."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 17.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -8.17% follows -27.18% prior active performance; mechanical quality score is only 0.322.",
"The rate hike and rising dollar are fundamental headwinds for precious-metal exposure.",
"Manufacturing expansion supports industrial demand and the deep drawdown permits a rebound, but neither establishes a timely reversal catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SILVER",
"MATERIALS",
"FINANCIALS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"DIVIDEND"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Cross-sectional spreads are large despite the missing aggregate dispersion statistic: semiconductor 21-session active return is +13.72%, versus -12.26% for mining. Narrow equity breadth, falling credit prices, rising dollar strength and restrictive policy argue against indiscriminate dip buying. Manufacturing and consumption remain firm enough to support selective reversals, but weak employment and elevated inflation leave substantial two-sided risk around October releases and the FOMC. Recent technology leadership lacks independent sector-specific fundamental confirmation in the briefing.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Financials and dividend equities offer modest, evidence-supported reversal advantages after unusually large relative pullbacks, rather than a blanket preference for recent losers. Small value ranks third but remains below the eligibility threshold because financing and employment risks constrain confidence. The deterministic rule therefore retains a benchmark fallback. Mechanical quality scores describe price behavior, not verified balance-sheet strength.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Cross-sectional spreads are large despite the missing aggregate dispersion statistic: semiconductor 21-session active return is +13.72%, versus -12.26% for mining. Narrow equity breadth, falling credit prices, rising dollar strength and restrictive policy argue against indiscriminate dip buying. Manufacturing and consumption remain firm enough to support selective reversals, but weak employment and elevated inflation leave substantial two-sided risk around October releases and the FOMC. Recent technology leadership lacks independent sector-specific fundamental confirmation in the briefing.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15875,
"latency_seconds": 51.48491808498511,
"output_tokens": 3256,
"reasoning_tokens": 79,
"total_tokens": 19131
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Prioritized three shock-reversal candidates with overreaction labels and quality support for potential one-month rebound versus SPY.
Weak payroll revisions and manufacturing price pressure favor reversal in quality cyclicals over continuation in high-valuation tech amid elevated long-term yields.
{
"confidence": 0.5833,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September payroll revisions signal growth slowdown",
"Elevated manufacturing input prices at 77.9",
"FOMC and CPI releases within horizon"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"High quality score 0.781",
"Recent active -7.74% with shallow drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank 0.955",
"Quality score 0.576"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -12.26%",
"Quality score 0.559"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active 13.72%",
"Prior active rank 0.955"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active 11.10%",
"Prior active rank 0.985"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active 5.47%",
"Prior active rank 1.000"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 33,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active 6.44%",
"Prior active rank 0.970"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.727",
"Recent pullback rank 0.701"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.746",
"Recent pullback rank 0.806"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -10.55%",
"Quality score 0.515"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.17%",
"Low quality score 0.322"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High volume z 7.79",
"Low volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High volume z 4.46",
"Low volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark return -0.22%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SILVER",
"MATERIALS",
"FINANCIALS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"MATERIALS": 35,
"METALS_MINING": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"MATERIALS",
"METALS_MINING"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Weak payroll revisions and manufacturing price pressure favor reversal in quality cyclicals over continuation in high-valuation tech amid elevated long-term yields.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"MATERIALS",
"METALS_MINING"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Prioritized three shock-reversal candidates with overreaction labels and quality support for potential one-month rebound versus SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Weak payroll revisions and manufacturing price pressure favor reversal in quality cyclicals over continuation in high-valuation tech amid elevated long-term yields.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
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}xai-grok-4-5
Highest-conviction edges are quality pullbacks in FINANCIALS, DIVIDEND and SMALL_VALUE labeled overreaction with p_beat >=55; tech/semi continuations carry high vol and already strong prior moves reducing one-month edge; bond volume spikes lack rate-cut catalyst given sticky inflation and recent hike; therefore prefer SPY fill for unused slots under the deterministic rule.
Soft payrolls with downward revisions, sticky PCE inflation near 3.4%, Fed funds at 3.75-4.00% and long yields >5%, manufacturing still expanding but input prices elevated; recent breadth weak with growth/tech outperforming value/cyclicals and bonds under pressure, producing mixed continuation vs pullback signals over the one-month window.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sticky inflation and further Fed hawkishness could extend value/financial underperformance",
"High-vol continuation names (SMH/EWY) may reverse sharply on any growth scare",
"Upcoming CPI/PPI/FOMC before exit can reprice rates and cyclicals abruptly",
"Narrow market breadth leaves equal-weight and small-value vulnerable if mega-cap leadership persists"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -7.74% with quality evidence score 0.781 highest among slate",
"Prior active near flat and horizon vol only 12.52% with max DD -8.49%",
"Fed hike already priced and yields edged lower on Oct 2"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.63% yet quality score 0.746 with low beta 0.26",
"Horizon vol 11.26% and shallowish DD -6.87%",
"Pullback rank high in quality table while SPY near flat"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.25% with quality score 0.727",
"Vol 11.03% and DD -7.53% moderate vs small-cap peers",
"Prior active near zero supporting temporary pullback view"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.13% and quality pullback rank 0.955",
"Manufacturing PMI still 54.5 with production/new orders >55",
"Vol 16.7% higher than financials limiting edge"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -12.26% extreme with quality score 0.559",
"Horizon vol 36.32% and DD -15.75% elevated",
"52w-high distance -20.29%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -10.55% and pullback rank 0.985",
"Vol 27.35% and beta 1.62 high",
"Distance to 52w high -20.92%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +11.10% and prior +28.88% strong",
"At 52w high with vol 32.77%",
"Quality score only 0.499"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +13.72% and prior +23.35%",
"Vol 39.05% and DD -17.48% high",
"Beta 2.38 and quality 0.443"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +5.47% prior +37.66% at 52w high",
"Vol 34.21% beta 1.87",
"Quality score 0.507"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +6.44% prior +28.60%",
"Horizon vol 58.71% and DD -24.04% extreme",
"Beta 2.83 quality 0.465"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.17% prior -27.18% and 52w distance -48.16%",
"Vol 38.76% quality only 0.322",
"Low corr 0.37 to SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 7.79 extreme dislocation",
"Recent active -3.96% vol only 4.39%",
"Long yields still >5% after Fed hike"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.46 elevated",
"Recent active -4.39% and prior -17.68%",
"Duration risk with 10y at 5.28%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -0.22% with vol 11.02% and DD -3.38%",
"Positive asset share only ~26-32% indicating narrow leadership",
"Benchmark for excess calculations"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SILVER",
"MATERIALS",
"FINANCIALS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Soft payrolls with downward revisions, sticky PCE inflation near 3.4%, Fed funds at 3.75-4.00% and long yields >5%, manufacturing still expanding but input prices elevated; recent breadth weak with growth/tech outperforming value/cyclicals and bonds under pressure, producing mixed continuation vs pullback signals over the one-month window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction edges are quality pullbacks in FINANCIALS, DIVIDEND and SMALL_VALUE labeled overreaction with p_beat >=55; tech/semi continuations carry high vol and already strong prior moves reducing one-month edge; bond volume spikes lack rate-cut catalyst given sticky inflation and recent hike; therefore prefer SPY fill for unused slots under the deterministic rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Soft payrolls with downward revisions, sticky PCE inflation near 3.4%, Fed funds at 3.75-4.00% and long yields >5%, manufacturing still expanding but input prices elevated; recent breadth weak with growth/tech outperforming value/cyclicals and bonds under pressure, producing mixed continuation vs pullback signals over the one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-6
Breadth is weak and policy is still tightening, so cap-weighted SPY is the default. Only financials and materials combine a quality/shock pullback with a barely-above-coin-flip chance of beating SPY; small value is a similar pullback but below the 55% bar. Continuation Asia/tech names are already extended with high vol.
SPY is near a 52-week high while equal-weight and most cyclicals lag, Fed just hiked into still-elevated PCE, and long yields remain above 5%. Strength is concentrated in high-beta tech/Asia continuation names; quality cyclicals show pullbacks without a clear one-month catalyst to beat SPY.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October CPI/PPI and FOMC could reprice the 5%+ Treasury curve and hit both cyclicals and duration.",
"Mega-cap/tech leadership can persist, leaving quality pullbacks lagging SPY.",
"Manufacturing input-price spike and USD strength can extend metals, EM, and materials underperformance.",
"High-beta continuation names (SMH, EWY, EWT) can reverse sharply if growth data disappoint."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score on the slate at 0.781 with recent active return -7.74% versus prior active near flat.",
"Horizon vol 12.52% and beta 0.62 are moderate versus other shock names.",
"Fed hike and 10y at 5.28% can still cap bank multiples into the October FOMC."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.13% with quality score 0.576 and recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"Manufacturing PMI 54.5 with production/new orders above 55 supports industrial demand.",
"Input-price index 77.9 and trade-policy comments raise margin risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence 0.727 with recent active -5.25% and modest 11.03% vol.",
"RSP 21-session lag versus SPY of -4.53% shows breadth weakness that small value shares.",
"Payrolls +29k and downward revisions argue against a strong domestic-cyclical rebound this month."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.746 and low beta 0.26 after -6.63% active.",
"SPY corr only 0.30 so it can lag a mega-cap rebound.",
"Yields still >5% across the curve reduce relative appeal of dividend equities."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session -0.22% and only -0.81% from 52-week high.",
"Nasdaq and Oct 2 session gains concentrated in large growth.",
"Upcoming CPI, FOMC, and GDP can keep leadership in the cap-weighted index."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +37.66% and at 52-week high with medium_strength lane.",
"Vol 34.21% and beta 1.87 plus volume z -0.78.",
"Geopolitical and export sensitivity into a hawkish Fed window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +3.71% and prior active +28.88% at 52-week high.",
"Quality score 0.499 with recent pullback rank 0.015.",
"No independent in-window catalyst beyond trend in the briefing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s +13.72% and prior +23.35% with beta 2.38.",
"Quality 0.443, recent pullback rank 0.000, vol 39%.",
"Volume z -0.78 and 5.73% off high raise continuation-fade risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +28.60% and recent +2.51% but vol 58.71% and max DD -24%.",
"Beta 2.83 and 12.46% off high.",
"Export/semiconductor linkage without a new one-month catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s -12.26% with vol 36.32% and DD -15.75%.",
"Quality 0.559 driven by extreme pullback rank 1.000 not low vol.",
"Manufacturing prices 77.9 and USD 21s +2.56% pressure miners."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -4.95% and active 21s -10.55% with 20.92% off high.",
"Quality 0.515, beta 1.62, resource/EM sensitivity.",
"USD strength and high real yields are a headwind for EM resource equities."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.85% recent, prior active -27.18%, 48.16% off 52w high.",
"Quality 0.322 and vol 38.76%.",
"IAU 21s -5.57% and UUP 21s +2.56% confirm precious-metal pressure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 7.79 with active 21s -3.96% and low 4.39% vol.",
"10y 5.28% after a 25bp hike; duration unlikely to beat equities in one month.",
"Quality 0.413."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.46 with active 21s -4.39%.",
"Agency MBS remains rate-sensitive with 10y still above 5%.",
"Quality 0.449 and beta 0.15 imply little equity-beating upside."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"SILVER",
"MATERIALS",
"FINANCIALS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"DIVIDEND",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"MATERIALS": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"MATERIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high while equal-weight and most cyclicals lag, Fed just hiked into still-elevated PCE, and long yields remain above 5%. Strength is concentrated in high-beta tech/Asia continuation names; quality cyclicals show pullbacks without a clear one-month catalyst to beat SPY.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"MATERIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Breadth is weak and policy is still tightening, so cap-weighted SPY is the default. Only financials and materials combine a quality/shock pullback with a barely-above-coin-flip chance of beating SPY; small value is a similar pullback but below the 55% bar. Continuation Asia/tech names are already extended with high vol.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high while equal-weight and most cyclicals lag, Fed just hiked into still-elevated PCE, and long yields remain above 5%. Strength is concentrated in high-beta tech/Asia continuation names; quality cyclicals show pullbacks without a clear one-month catalyst to beat SPY.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17260,
"latency_seconds": 43.04508451203583,
"output_tokens": 2684,
"reasoning_tokens": 472,
"total_tokens": 20416
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Financials Sector (XLF)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%Materials Sector (XLB)35%Metals and Mining (XME)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%Materials Sector (XLB)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-02 | 207.79 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-02 | 89.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-02 | 28.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-02 | 28.32 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-02 | 124.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-02 | 154.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-02 | 47.73 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-02 | 38.19 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-02 | 66.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-02 | 19.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-02 | 58.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-02 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-02 | 51.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-02 | 110.32 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-02 | 110.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-02 | 80.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-02 | 39.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-02 | 147.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-02 | 104.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-02 | 71.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-02 | 90.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-02 | 59.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-02 | 62.82 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-02 | 209.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-02 | 20.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-02 | 103.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-02 | 86.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-02 | 53.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-02 | 77.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-02 | 166.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-02 | 76.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-02 | 46.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-02 | 169.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-02 | 89.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-02 | 46.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-02 | 101.83 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-02 | 98.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-02 | 58.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-02 | 77.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-02 | 48.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-02 | 105.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-02 | 71.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-02 | 100.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-02 | 749.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-02 | 40.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-02 | 70.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-02 | 769.64 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-02 | 630.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-02 | 91.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-02 | 54.74 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-02 | 108.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-02 | 44.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-02 | 63.19 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-02 | 191.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-02 | 116.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-02 | 199.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-02 | 377.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-02 | 104.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-02 | 46.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-02 | 94.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-02 | 32.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-02 | 28.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-02 | 127.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-02 | 249.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-02 | 70.89 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-02 | 73.39 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-02 | 322.88 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-02 | 281.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-02 | 212.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-02 | 39.83 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 2be55e79cbac...8466e8c5 |
| manifest.yaml | b32fba77ffbe...88ccd7e7 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 9369d8898572...06f6f503 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | f2c1a4745a41...e7584610 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 6545dc997337...e77562c5 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | e935d48af1a7...4f3b0bd4 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 55164fc068ab...93343e5a |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | f6581ef92ef3...591e215d |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |