Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +56.43%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 68.0 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-10-30 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20261001-1M-clean
30,987 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-01-1M
- Decision date: 2026-10-01
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-01T07:28:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-01T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-09-30
- Exit date: 2026-10-30
- Entry rule: Use the September 30, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Exit rule: Use the October 30, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Factual Briefing — October 1, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-10-01T07:28:00Z**. Latest completed U.S. market session: **September 30, 2026**.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. economy and inflation
- BEA reported that August personal income rose 0.2% month over month, disposable personal income rose 0.3%, nominal PCE rose 0.9%, and real PCE rose 0.6%. The personal saving rate was 4.1%.
- The August PCE price index rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year.
- BEA's September 30 annual update revised historical national-account estimates beginning with January 2021.
- BEA's third estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 2.2% annualized rate; first-quarter growth was revised to 2.5%. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed positively, while imports increased.
## Labor market
- August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 and unemployment was unchanged at 4.1%. Labor-force participation was 61.6%.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in August and 3.1% over twelve months. BLS revised the combined June and July payroll change upward by 55,000.
- Monthly labor estimates are survey-based and remain subject to revision.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote.
- September FOMC median projections for 2026 were 2.3% real-GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant projections, not a committed policy path.
- At the September 30 close, U.S. Treasury par yields were 4.88% at two years, 5.29% at ten years, and 5.64% at thirty years.
## Market and cross-asset observations
- On September 30, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,651.54, the Dow fell 0.9% to 50,906.05, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 26,861.06, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.4% to 2,796.86. Most U.S. stocks declined during the session.
- U.S. commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels for the week ended September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable 2025 week.
- EIA's September forecast placed U.S. distillate inventories below 100 million barrels in September and below their 2021–2025 seasonal low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027. This is a conditional forecast.
## International conditions
- China's official September manufacturing PMI was 50.1, with production at 51.7 and new orders at 50.5. Large-enterprise PMI was 50.6; medium and small enterprises were at 49.7 and 48.9.
- The ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points in September, setting the deposit facility at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%.
- ECB staff projected headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, and real growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. The ECB described the outlook as highly uncertain, with upside inflation and downside growth risks.
## Scheduled events
- October 1: September ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- October 2: September U.S. Employment Situation.
- October 5: September ISM Services PMI.
- October 6: August U.S. international trade and EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- October 7: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- October 14–16: September CPI, PPI, real earnings, and import/export prices.
- October 20: September housing starts and permits and September state employment.
- October 27–28: scheduled FOMC meeting.
- October 28: advance September trade, retail, and wholesale indicators.
- October 29: advance third-quarter GDP and September Personal Income and Outlays.
- October 30: third-quarter Employment Cost Index.
This briefing supplies common factual context only. It does not identify favored assets, sectors, countries, styles, durations, commodities, currencies, or digital assets. Price history in the complete mechanical appendix is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-01-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-01'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-01T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-01T07:27:15.140992+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the September 30, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
exit_rule: Use the October 30, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
entry_date: '2026-09-30'
exit_date: '2026-10-30'
created_at: '2026-10-01T07:27:15.140992+00:00'
notes: 'Fresh direct public-source research frozen on 2026-10-01 America/Toronto; research cutoff 2026-10-01T07:28:00Z; latest completed U.S. market session 2026-09-30. One-shot closed-capability calls have tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Factual Briefing — October 1, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-10-01T07:28:00Z**. Latest completed U.S. market session: **September 30, 2026**.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. economy and inflation
- BEA reported that August personal income rose 0.2% month over month, disposable personal income rose 0.3%, nominal PCE rose 0.9%, and real PCE rose 0.6%. The personal saving rate was 4.1%.
- The August PCE price index rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year.
- BEA's September 30 annual update revised historical national-account estimates beginning with January 2021.
- BEA's third estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 2.2% annualized rate; first-quarter growth was revised to 2.5%. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed positively, while imports increased.
## Labor market
- August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 and unemployment was unchanged at 4.1%. Labor-force participation was 61.6%.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in August and 3.1% over twelve months. BLS revised the combined June and July payroll change upward by 55,000.
- Monthly labor estimates are survey-based and remain subject to revision.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote.
- September FOMC median projections for 2026 were 2.3% real-GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant projections, not a committed policy path.
- At the September 30 close, U.S. Treasury par yields were 4.88% at two years, 5.29% at ten years, and 5.64% at thirty years.
## Market and cross-asset observations
- On September 30, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,651.54, the Dow fell 0.9% to 50,906.05, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 26,861.06, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.4% to 2,796.86. Most U.S. stocks declined during the session.
- U.S. commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels for the week ended September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable 2025 week.
- EIA's September forecast placed U.S. distillate inventories below 100 million barrels in September and below their 2021–2025 seasonal low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027. This is a conditional forecast.
## International conditions
- China's official September manufacturing PMI was 50.1, with production at 51.7 and new orders at 50.5. Large-enterprise PMI was 50.6; medium and small enterprises were at 49.7 and 48.9.
- The ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points in September, setting the deposit facility at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%.
- ECB staff projected headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, and real growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. The ECB described the outlook as highly uncertain, with upside inflation and downside growth risks.
## Scheduled events
- October 1: September ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- October 2: September U.S. Employment Situation.
- October 5: September ISM Services PMI.
- October 6: August U.S. international trade and EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- October 7: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- October 14–16: September CPI, PPI, real earnings, and import/export prices.
- October 20: September housing starts and permits and September state employment.
- October 27–28: scheduled FOMC meeting.
- October 28: advance September trade, retail, and wholesale indicators.
- October 29: advance third-quarter GDP and September Personal Income and Outlays.
- October 30: third-quarter Employment Cost Index.
This briefing supplies common factual context only. It does not identify favored assets, sectors, countries, styles, durations, commodities, currencies, or digital assets. Price history in the complete mechanical appendix is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Only LARGE_VALUE qualifies as a plausible overreaction with a quality prior trend and low volatility, but its edge is marginal (54%) and falls below the 55% eligibility bar, so the deterministic rule should default to SPY. Shock-reversal candidates (metals, silver, solar, defense, South Africa) show prolonged negative prior trends consistent with fundamental pressure from higher real rates and a stronger dollar, not transient overreaction. Strength lanes (semis, Taiwan, cyber) have real prior support but are extended and highly volatile into a hawkish FOMC and CPI window, offering no reliable excess return. Bond dislocations reflect genuine repricing of the policy path.
Macro backdrop is a hawkish-tightening regime: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% in September, 10y at 5.29%, 30y at 5.64%, core PCE 3.0% and headline 3.4% with projections implying another hike by year-end. Breadth is poor (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions, only 26% of assets positive), duration and credit are falling, the dollar is rising, and leadership is extremely narrow in semis/tech. Cross-sectional dispersion is high, but the recent losers are mostly rate-sensitive or commodity exposures with weak prior trends, so their declines read as fundamentally driven rather than overreaction. With an FOMC on Oct 27-28, CPI mid-month, and a jobs report Oct 2 inside the window, I see limited strong reversal edge and prefer the cap-weighted benchmark or quality large-cap exposure.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC on Oct 27-28 or hot CPI on Oct 14-16 could push yields higher and hurt value, small caps and duration while reinforcing narrow mega-cap leadership",
"A sharp rotation out of extended semiconductors/tech would drag cap-weighted SPY below equal-weight and value exposures",
"Weak Oct 2 payrolls or ISM data could trigger a risk-off move favoring bonds and defensives over equities",
"Dollar reversal or China stimulus could spark a violent short-covering rally in metals, miners and EM that this ranking does not capture"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest-quality low-vol pullback: prior active +2.37%, recent active -2.81%, vol 9.19%, drawdown only -4.06%",
"Quality evidence score 0.731 with 0.821 low-volatility rank",
"Rising long yields historically favor value over long-duration growth, though breadth weakness is a headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY only -0.33% over 21 sessions and -1.72% from 52w high while RSP is -4.83%",
"Cap-weighted index has held up best amid narrow tech leadership and rising rates"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +41.67% (rank 1.000) with recent active still +3.27% and only -0.88% from 52w high",
"Lower beta (1.11) and shallower drawdown (-9.53%) than other tech lanes; no specific in-window catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +9.74% and prior active +26.94%, but vol 40% and beta 2.38 with -18.73% drawdown",
"Lowest pullback rank (0.000); extended with no briefing catalyst and a hawkish FOMC inside the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +34.08%, recent active +4.84%, -2.37% from 52w high",
"Beta 1.86 and vol 34% with volume z -0.91 signaling fading participation; dollar strength (UUP +2.31%) is a headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.85% with flat prior trend (-0.83%); small caps are hurt by rising rates and HYG weakness (-2.73%)",
"Quality score 0.738 but the pullback aligns with tightening credit conditions, not an overreaction"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.81% with roughly flat prior trend; credit spreads widening per HYG decline",
"Quality score 0.749 is the highest on the slate, but Q3 bank earnings and FOMC in-window raise two-sided risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +28.78% but vol 59.56% (lowest low-vol rank 0.000), beta 2.82, drawdown -24.04%",
"Extreme volatility makes expected excess return unreliable; dollar strength is a headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO +8.95% over 21 sessions but crude inventories rose 0.922mb and are 10.8mb above 2025 levels",
"EIA distillate tightness forecast is supportive but conditional; vol 52% and negative SPY beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 7.39 indicates heavy selling/repositioning as 10y hit 5.29% after a Fed hike",
"Prior active -17.90%; rate pressure is fundamental with FOMC projecting a 4.1% year-end funds rate"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.09 with recent active -3.06% and prior active -18.43%",
"Rising yields and sticky 3.0% core PCE weigh on duration; low vol 5.57% limits upside vs equities"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.83% on top of prior active -13.79%; -18.08% from 52w high at max drawdown",
"Persistent downtrend with no briefing catalyst supplied; shallow-drawdown rank 0.045"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.95% (pullback rank 1.000) but prior active -8.80%; gold -6.70% and silver -30% prior",
"Strong dollar (UUP +2.31%) and rising real rates pressure metals; China PMI 50.1 only marginally expansionary"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.92% following prior active -12.06%; -19.93% from 52w high",
"Resource-heavy EM exposure facing dollar strength, falling precious metals and higher US rates"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -30.00% and recent -9.02%; -48.38% from 52w high in a sustained downtrend",
"Rising real yields (10y 5.29%) and dollar strength are structural headwinds; quality score 0.326"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -32.86% (rank 0.000) and drawdown -25.61%; -40.52% from 52w high",
"Rate-sensitive, financing-dependent sector facing higher Fed funds and 5.6% 30y yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro backdrop is a hawkish-tightening regime: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% in September, 10y at 5.29%, 30y at 5.64%, core PCE 3.0% and headline 3.4% with projections implying another hike by year-end. Breadth is poor (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions, only 26% of assets positive), duration and credit are falling, the dollar is rising, and leadership is extremely narrow in semis/tech. Cross-sectional dispersion is high, but the recent losers are mostly rate-sensitive or commodity exposures with weak prior trends, so their declines read as fundamentally driven rather than overreaction. With an FOMC on Oct 27-28, CPI mid-month, and a jobs report Oct 2 inside the window, I see limited strong reversal edge and prefer the cap-weighted benchmark or quality large-cap exposure.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SP500",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only LARGE_VALUE qualifies as a plausible overreaction with a quality prior trend and low volatility, but its edge is marginal (54%) and falls below the 55% eligibility bar, so the deterministic rule should default to SPY. Shock-reversal candidates (metals, silver, solar, defense, South Africa) show prolonged negative prior trends consistent with fundamental pressure from higher real rates and a stronger dollar, not transient overreaction. Strength lanes (semis, Taiwan, cyber) have real prior support but are extended and highly volatile into a hawkish FOMC and CPI window, offering no reliable excess return. Bond dislocations reflect genuine repricing of the policy path.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro backdrop is a hawkish-tightening regime: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% in September, 10y at 5.29%, 30y at 5.64%, core PCE 3.0% and headline 3.4% with projections implying another hike by year-end. Breadth is poor (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions, only 26% of assets positive), duration and credit are falling, the dollar is rising, and leadership is extremely narrow in semis/tech. Cross-sectional dispersion is high, but the recent losers are mostly rate-sensitive or commodity exposures with weak prior trends, so their declines read as fundamentally driven rather than overreaction. With an FOMC on Oct 27-28, CPI mid-month, and a jobs report Oct 2 inside the window, I see limited strong reversal edge and prefer the cap-weighted benchmark or quality large-cap exposure.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27885,
"latency_seconds": 56.859570704982616,
"output_tokens": 4576,
"total_tokens": 32461
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
No candidate clears the 55% beat-SPY threshold with a credible overreaction case. Quality value pullbacks rank highest but have only coin-flip odds against a tightening, high-yield backdrop. Most losers reflect rate and dollar fundamentals rather than overreaction, so SPY is the preferred default.
Hawkish backdrop: Fed and ECB hiked in September, the 10y is at 5.29%, the dollar is rising, and breadth is weak (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions; only 26% of assets positive). Mega-cap tech leadership is masking broad weakness. Rate-sensitive and precious-metal assets face fundamental pressure. Reversal edges are modest and concentrated in low-volatility quality pullbacks.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot September CPI or payrolls pushes a further hike at the October 27-28 FOMC",
"Mega-cap tech concentration keeps SPY ahead of broad and value exposures",
"A sharp rate reversal would favor duration and metals assets ranked low"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-2.81% active over 21 sessions after +2.37% prior active",
"Low volatility of 9.19% and quality score of 0.731"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -0.33% over 21 sessions"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality score at 0.749",
"Earnings season falls inside the window; the yield curve is steep at 2s10s +41bp"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.85% active over 21 sessions",
"High rates and HYG weakness weigh on small caps"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+41.67% prior active; 0.88% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+9.74% active over 21 sessions; volatility of 40%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+34% prior active; beta of 1.86"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-11.95% active over 21 sessions; strong dollar",
"China PMI only 50.1"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volatility of 59.6%; beta of 2.82"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-8.83% active after -13.79% prior; persistent weakness"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Dollar +2.31% over 21 sessions; gold -6.7%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Crude inventories up 10.8M barrels year over year; volatility of 52%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z of 4.09 amid rising yields; Fed hiking"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z of 7.39 suggests outflows; 10y at 5.29%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"48% below 52-week high; real yields and dollar rising"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-32.86% prior active; rate-sensitive at 5%+ yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Hawkish backdrop: Fed and ECB hiked in September, the 10y is at 5.29%, the dollar is rising, and breadth is weak (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions; only 26% of assets positive). Mega-cap tech leadership is masking broad weakness. Rate-sensitive and precious-metal assets face fundamental pressure. Reversal edges are modest and concentrated in low-volatility quality pullbacks.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SP500",
"FINANCIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No candidate clears the 55% beat-SPY threshold with a credible overreaction case. Quality value pullbacks rank highest but have only coin-flip odds against a tightening, high-yield backdrop. Most losers reflect rate and dollar fundamentals rather than overreaction, so SPY is the preferred default.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Hawkish backdrop: Fed and ECB hiked in September, the 10y is at 5.29%, the dollar is rising, and breadth is weak (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions; only 26% of assets positive). Mega-cap tech leadership is masking broad weakness. Rate-sensitive and precious-metal assets face fundamental pressure. Reversal edges are modest and concentrated in low-volatility quality pullbacks.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27885,
"latency_seconds": 31.308149077987764,
"output_tokens": 3301,
"total_tokens": 31186
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets assets that have experienced significant recent pullbacks but maintain reasonable quality scores or have specific catalysts, aiming to capture reversal premiums in a mixed market environment.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent broad declines across most sectors, while some technology and energy segments show short-term continuation. The Fed's recent rate hike to 3.75%-4.00% and resilient economic data suggest a higher-for-longer rate environment, pressuring rate-sensitive and cyclical assets.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued hawkishness from the Federal Reserve could further pressure risk assets and rate-sensitive sectors.",
"A broader economic slowdown could negatively impact cyclical sectors like metals and mining."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -5.49% and prior active return of -8.80%.",
"Quality score of 0.572 with a recent pullback rank of 1.000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -6.28% and prior active return of -30.00%.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.985."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.70% and prior active return of -12.06%.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.970."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.15% and prior active return of -13.79%.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.955."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.40% and prior active return of -32.86%.",
"High volatility of 35.88% and max drawdown of -25.61%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 41.67%.",
"Quality score of 0.543."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 34.08%.",
"Recent return of 0.36%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High volatility of 59.56%.",
"Recent return of -1.55%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.26% and prior active return of 26.94%.",
"Prior active rank of 0.955."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of 9.28%.",
"EIA forecast placed U.S. distillate inventories below 100 million barrels."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score of 0.749.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.896."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score of 0.738.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.731."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score of 0.731.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.463."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 7.39.",
"Low volatility of 4.34%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 4.09.",
"Low volatility of 5.57%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark asset."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SILVER": 35,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent broad declines across most sectors, while some technology and energy segments show short-term continuation. The Fed's recent rate hike to 3.75%-4.00% and resilient economic data suggest a higher-for-longer rate environment, pressuring rate-sensitive and cyclical assets.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets assets that have experienced significant recent pullbacks but maintain reasonable quality scores or have specific catalysts, aiming to capture reversal premiums in a mixed market environment.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent broad declines across most sectors, while some technology and energy segments show short-term continuation. The Fed's recent rate hike to 3.75%-4.00% and resilient economic data suggest a higher-for-longer rate environment, pressuring rate-sensitive and cyclical assets.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19245,
"latency_seconds": 23.09700308999163,
"output_tokens": 3396,
"total_tokens": 22641
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Financials and large value offer the clearest, though modest, overreaction cases supported by resilient economic activity. Oil ranks third on conditional inventory support, but its continuation classification does not qualify it under the reversal-only rule. Other pullbacks lack sufficient confidence or face persistent tightening headwinds; retaining the benchmark for the unused slot is preferable to forcing another eligible classification.
Wide observed relative-return spreads and weak breadth suggest substantial dispersion, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing. Continued growth and employment support selective cyclical reversals, but Fed and ECB tightening make duration-sensitive losses partly fundamental. Technology leadership lacks independent sector-specific confirmation in the briefing. Favor modest, selective value reversals rather than indiscriminate buying of extreme losers.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October inflation releases and the October 27–28 FOMC meeting could reinforce tightening and prolong value-sector losses.",
"Higher financing costs or deteriorating credit quality could overwhelm the growth and yield-curve support for financials.",
"Narrow technology leadership could persist, leaving financials and large value behind SPY despite their pullbacks.",
"Rising crude inventories could outweigh forecast distillate scarcity, reversing oil's relative strength.",
"The October 29 GDP and income reports and October 30 Employment Cost Index arrive immediately before the exit close, leaving little time for adverse surprises to reverse."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -6.81% contrasts with prior active return of only -0.95%; quality evidence score is 0.749.",
"Payroll growth of 162,000, unemployment of 4.1%, and positive real consumption do not indicate an abrupt economic contraction.",
"Ten-year Treasury yield exceeds the two-year yield, providing a potential intermediation offset to tighter policy, though not proof of improved margins."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was +2.37%, followed by a -2.81% recent relative pullback.",
"Quality evidence score is 0.731, volatility is 9.19%, and drawdown is -4.06%.",
"Positive GDP and real consumption growth support cyclical earnings, while higher rates challenge competing growth-stock exposures."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EIA forecasts distillate inventories below seasonal lows through the scoring window, providing support independent of price momentum.",
"Commercial crude inventories rose 0.922 million barrels weekly and are 10.774 million above the comparable 2025 week, limiting conviction.",
"Recent active return is +9.28%, but volatility is 51.96% and prior active return was -13.18%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -17,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 11.95% is unusually deep, while China's manufacturing PMI and new orders remain just above 50.",
"Volume z-score of -0.85 supplies no strong capitulation confirmation.",
"Prior active return of -8.80% and volatility of 36.26% prevent a high-confidence reversal assessment."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -4.85% versus -0.83% previously, with a quality evidence score of 0.738.",
"Real PCE grew 0.6% in August, supporting domestic demand.",
"The September Fed hike and 4.88% two-year Treasury yield create a meaningful financing headwind."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of +41.67% and recent active return of +3.27% establish leadership but not an independent forecast.",
"The fund is only 0.88% below its high, with volatility of 33.08%.",
"The briefing supplies no cybersecurity-specific operating catalyst to offset tighter monetary policy."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY's 21-session return is -0.33%, compared with -4.83% for equal-weight equities.",
"Only 26.09% of assets have positive 21-session returns, indicating narrow participation.",
"SPY has identically zero excess return against itself."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return is +34.08% and recent active return is +4.84%.",
"Volatility of 33.99% and a -16.65% drawdown show substantial reversal risk.",
"No Taiwan-specific demand or earnings catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of +9.74% follows +26.94% prior active performance.",
"Volatility is 40.02%, drawdown is -18.73%, and volume z-score is -0.81.",
"The Fed raised rates; the briefing supplies no semiconductor-specific fundamental confirmation of recent leadership."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score is exceptionally high at 7.39, but volume alone does not establish forced selling.",
"Recent active return is -3.21%, with low absolute volatility of 4.34%.",
"Fed tightening and elevated long-term yields provide a fundamental explanation for duration pressure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 4.09 accompanies a -3.06% recent active return.",
"The ten-year yield is 5.29% following the September policy hike.",
"No mortgage-spread or flow evidence establishes a temporary dislocation rather than rate repricing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return is +28.78%, but recent active return has moderated to +1.39%.",
"Volatility is 59.56%, the highest in the quality table, and drawdown is -24.04%.",
"No country-specific catalyst is supplied to justify extrapolating the earlier strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -19,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -8.83% extends prior underperformance of -13.79%.",
"The fund is at its 63-session drawdown low of -18.08%.",
"No budget, order, or aircraft-demand catalyst is supplied to distinguish temporary overreaction from persistent weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -8.92%, following -12.06% prior active performance.",
"Dollar exposure gained 2.31% over 21 sessions, creating a potential headwind for dollar-denominated emerging-market returns.",
"China's PMI of 50.1 offers only limited resource-demand support; no domestic reversal catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was -30.00%, followed by another -9.02% relative loss.",
"Fed tightening and dollar appreciation are adverse changes for a non-yielding dollar-priced metal.",
"The 48.38% distance below its high permits a sharp rebound, but volume z-score of -0.64 does not confirm capitulation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of -32.86% is the weakest quality-table prior trend; recent active return is -7.24%.",
"The Fed hike and elevated Treasury yields worsen financing conditions for capital-intensive solar exposure.",
"Quality evidence score is 0.298 and drawdown is -25.61%, with no supplied policy or demand catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"LARGE_VALUE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"LARGE_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Wide observed relative-return spreads and weak breadth suggest substantial dispersion, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing. Continued growth and employment support selective cyclical reversals, but Fed and ECB tightening make duration-sensitive losses partly fundamental. Technology leadership lacks independent sector-specific confirmation in the briefing. Favor modest, selective value reversals rather than indiscriminate buying of extreme losers.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Financials and large value offer the clearest, though modest, overreaction cases supported by resilient economic activity. Oil ranks third on conditional inventory support, but its continuation classification does not qualify it under the reversal-only rule. Other pullbacks lack sufficient confidence or face persistent tightening headwinds; retaining the benchmark for the unused slot is preferable to forcing another eligible classification.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Wide observed relative-return spreads and weak breadth suggest substantial dispersion, although the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing. Continued growth and employment support selective cyclical reversals, but Fed and ECB tightening make duration-sensitive losses partly fundamental. Technology leadership lacks independent sector-specific confirmation in the briefing. Favor modest, selective value reversals rather than indiscriminate buying of extreme losers.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15912,
"latency_seconds": 74.98355047599762,
"output_tokens": 3721,
"reasoning_tokens": 171,
"total_tokens": 19633
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Quality pullbacks show relative stability but lack 55%+ p_beat_spy with overreaction label for non-SPY selection.
Neutral macro data and mixed price signals across slate with no dominant continuation or reversal supported by briefing facts.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rate path uncertainty after September hike",
"Labor market revision risk",
"Global growth slowdown signals from China PMI"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"August PCE rose 0.3% MoM"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Fed raised rates 25bp in September"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Unemployment unchanged at 4.1%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 fell 0.3% on Sep 30"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 1.000"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.985"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active 9.74%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 7.39"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.09"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Inventories up 0.922M barrels"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.970"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.83%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.92%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.298"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.95%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.326"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Neutral macro data and mixed price signals across slate with no dominant continuation or reversal supported by briefing facts.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"LARGE_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Quality pullbacks show relative stability but lack 55%+ p_beat_spy with overreaction label for non-SPY selection.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Neutral macro data and mixed price signals across slate with no dominant continuation or reversal supported by briefing facts.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16136,
"latency_seconds": 19.960927931999322,
"output_tokens": 2035,
"reasoning_tokens": 851,
"total_tokens": 19022
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Quality-pullback value and financials show the cleanest overreaction profiles with high quality scores, moderate vol, and recent active underperformance versus SPY; shock names carry higher vol and weaker fundamentals while medium-strength tech/Asia and bond volume spikes lack sufficient one-month edge after the September hike and sticky inflation.
Sticky PCE inflation near 3.4%, recent 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00%, and elevated Treasury yields (10y 5.29%) coincide with broad equity softness, low positive-asset share, and RSP underperformance versus SPY; quality value pullbacks and selective shock losers offer mixed reversal versus continuation edges over one month.
{
"confidence": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further upside in Treasury yields after the September hike and 5.29% 10y close could extend pressure on financials and value",
"October FOMC, CPI, and employment prints may renew growth or inflation scares before 2026-10-30",
"High cross-sectional dispersion and low positive-asset share raise risk of continued factor rotation against pullback trades",
"Semiconductor and Taiwan continuation could dominate if AI/tech momentum reasserts, leaving value lagging"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -6.81% with quality evidence score 0.749",
"Horizon vol 13.07% and max drawdown -8.49% shallower than many cyclicals",
"Prior active near flat amid higher policy rate path"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.81% against quality score 0.731",
"Low horizon vol 9.19% and drawdown only -4.06%",
"52w-high distance -4.06% with solid prior active +2.37%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.85% with quality evidence 0.738",
"Horizon vol 10.82% and drawdown -7.53%",
"Prior active near zero supporting pullback rather than trend break"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.95% and return -5.49% with quality score 0.572",
"Deep recent pullback rank 1.000 in quality table",
"High beta 1.77 leaves room for bounce if risk appetite stabilizes"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.83% and return -3.15%",
"Quality pullback rank 0.955",
"Horizon drawdown -18.08% already large relative to beta ~1.0"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +34.08% and recent active +4.84%",
"Quality prior active rank 0.985",
"Distance to 52w high only -2.37%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +41.67% with recent active +3.27%",
"Quality prior rank 1.000",
"Near 52w high at -0.88%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +9.74% and prior active +26.94%",
"Quality prior rank 0.955",
"High horizon vol 40.02% and drawdown -18.73%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.92% with quality score 0.537",
"Recent pullback rank 0.970",
"Elevated vol 27.47%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with recent return -0.67%",
"Horizon vol 11.06% and drawdown -3.38%",
"Distance to 52w high -1.72%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +28.78% despite recent active +1.39%",
"Quality prior rank 0.970",
"Very high vol 59.56% and drawdown -24.04%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +9.28% but 5s return -2.13%",
"Crude inventories up 0.922m barrels week ended Sep 25",
"Quality score low at 0.181 with high vol 51.96%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -6.28% and active -9.02%",
"Prior active -30.00% and 52w distance -48.38%",
"Quality score 0.326 with high vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -32.86% and recent active -7.24%",
"Quality score 0.298 and drawdown -25.61%",
"52w-high distance -40.52%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 7.39 extreme with recent active -3.21%",
"Treasury yields elevated (10y 5.29%)",
"Low vol 4.34% but rate-sensitive"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.09 with recent active -3.06%",
"Prior active -18.43% under rising yields",
"Fed funds raised to 3.75-4.00% range"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"LARGE_VALUE": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Sticky PCE inflation near 3.4%, recent 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00%, and elevated Treasury yields (10y 5.29%) coincide with broad equity softness, low positive-asset share, and RSP underperformance versus SPY; quality value pullbacks and selective shock losers offer mixed reversal versus continuation edges over one month.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Quality-pullback value and financials show the cleanest overreaction profiles with high quality scores, moderate vol, and recent active underperformance versus SPY; shock names carry higher vol and weaker fundamentals while medium-strength tech/Asia and bond volume spikes lack sufficient one-month edge after the September hike and sticky inflation.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Sticky PCE inflation near 3.4%, recent 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00%, and elevated Treasury yields (10y 5.29%) coincide with broad equity softness, low positive-asset share, and RSP underperformance versus SPY; quality value pullbacks and selective shock losers offer mixed reversal versus continuation edges over one month.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17157,
"latency_seconds": 50.54952866700478,
"output_tokens": 3320,
"reasoning_tokens": 539,
"total_tokens": 21016
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Breadth is poor, policy is still tightening, and high-beta continuation names carry large one-month tracking error. Quality value/financials pullbacks are closer to SPY but lack independent in-window catalysts strong enough for a 55% beat probability. Shock losers in metals, silver, solar, and EM resources look more like high-vol mean-reversion noise than high-confidence overreactions.
Hawkish rates (FF 3.75–4.00%, 10y 5.29%) and still-elevated PCE inflation sit against a slightly negative SPY month, very low 5-session breadth, and a split between high-beta tech/Asia continuation and commodity/miners/solar shock drawdowns. One-month edge versus SPY is weak after vol, beta, and FOMC/CPI calendar risk.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October 14–16 CPI/PPI and October 27–28 FOMC can reprice the 5.29% 10y and growth-sensitive beta.",
"Equal-weight lag and 13% 5-session positive share imply further concentration risk if mega-cap leadership fails.",
"China PMI barely expansionary plus inventory builds can extend metals/oil/EM resource underperformance.",
"High-vol Asia/semis (EWY vol 59.56%, SMH beta 2.38) can gap versus SPY on a single risk-off session."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return -0.67% with 52w-high distance only -1.72% and 63s vol 11.06%.",
"Positive-asset share 13.04% over 5 sessions while equal-weight lagged cap-weight."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.731 with 63s vol 9.19% and max drawdown -4.06%.",
"Active 21s return -2.81% versus SPY with beta 0.70."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality score 0.749 with recent active -6.81%.",
"Treasury 10y 5.29% after a 25 bp September hike, which can keep bank/duration multiples under pressure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.738, 63s vol 10.82%, drawdown -7.53%.",
"Russell 2000 fell 0.4% on Sep 30; small-value 21s active -4.85%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +34.08% and 21s active +4.84% with 52w-high distance only -2.37%.",
"Horizon vol 33.99% and SPY beta 1.86 raise one-month tracking error."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +41.67% with 21s active +3.27% and 52w-high distance -0.88%.",
"Quality score 0.543 but 63s vol 33.08%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active +9.74% and prior active +26.94% with Nasdaq Composite +0.2% on Sep 30.",
"Vol 40.02%, beta 2.38, volume z -0.81."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 7.39 with 63s vol 4.34% and 21s active -3.21%.",
"10y yield 5.29% after a September hike limits duration bounce odds versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.09, 63s vol 5.57%, 21s active -3.06%.",
"Prior active -18.43% amid rising long yields (30y 5.64%)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +28.78% but 63s vol 59.56%, drawdown -24.04%, beta 2.82.",
"Recent return -1.55% with volume z -0.88."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active +9.28% but 5s return -2.13% and quality score 0.181.",
"Crude inventories 427.32 mmbbl, up 0.922 mmbbl week ended Sep 25."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -3.15% and 21s active -8.83% with beta near 1.02.",
"63s max drawdown -18.08% and quality score 0.501."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active -8.92%, recent -3.70%, 52w-high distance -19.93%.",
"Vol 27.47% and beta 1.63 versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -5.49% and 21s active -11.95% with recent pullback rank 1.000.",
"Horizon vol 36.26%, beta 1.77, China manufacturing PMI 50.1."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -32.86%, 52w-high distance -40.52%, quality 0.298.",
"Vol 35.88%, beta 1.93, drawdown -25.61%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -6.28%, prior active -30.00%, 52w-high distance -48.38%.",
"IAU 21s -6.70% and UUP 21s +2.31% with SLV quality 0.326."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Hawkish rates (FF 3.75–4.00%, 10y 5.29%) and still-elevated PCE inflation sit against a slightly negative SPY month, very low 5-session breadth, and a split between high-beta tech/Asia continuation and commodity/miners/solar shock drawdowns. One-month edge versus SPY is weak after vol, beta, and FOMC/CPI calendar risk.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SP500",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"FINANCIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Breadth is poor, policy is still tightening, and high-beta continuation names carry large one-month tracking error. Quality value/financials pullbacks are closer to SPY but lack independent in-window catalysts strong enough for a 55% beat probability. Shock losers in metals, silver, solar, and EM resources look more like high-vol mean-reversion noise than high-confidence overreactions.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Hawkish rates (FF 3.75–4.00%, 10y 5.29%) and still-elevated PCE inflation sit against a slightly negative SPY month, very low 5-session breadth, and a split between high-beta tech/Asia continuation and commodity/miners/solar shock drawdowns. One-month edge versus SPY is weak after vol, beta, and FOMC/CPI calendar risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17299,
"latency_seconds": 45.35609431299963,
"output_tokens": 2878,
"reasoning_tokens": 694,
"total_tokens": 20871
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Metals and Mining (XME)35%Silver (SLV)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-09-30 | 207.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-09-30 | 89.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-09-30 | 28.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-09-30 | 28.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-09-30 | 121.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-09-30 | 157.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-09-30 | 47.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-09-30 | 37.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-09-30 | 65.16 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-09-30 | 19.30 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-09-30 | 58.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-09-30 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-09-30 | 52.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-09-30 | 110.97 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-09-30 | 108.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-09-30 | 80.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-09-30 | 39.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-09-30 | 145.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-09-30 | 103.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-09-30 | 70.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-09-30 | 90.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-09-30 | 59.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-09-30 | 61.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-09-30 | 208.02 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-09-30 | 20.12 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-09-30 | 104.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-09-30 | 86.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-09-30 | 53.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-09-30 | 78.10 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-09-30 | 168.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-09-30 | 77.21 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-09-30 | 46.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-09-30 | 166.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-09-30 | 89.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-09-30 | 46.87 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-09-30 | 102.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-09-30 | 97.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-09-30 | 58.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-09-30 | 77.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-09-30 | 48.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-09-30 | 103.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-09-30 | 71.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-09-30 | 101.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-09-30 | 739.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-09-30 | 40.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-09-30 | 69.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-09-30 | 762.63 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-09-30 | 609.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-09-30 | 91.64 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-09-30 | 54.51 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-09-30 | 106.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-09-30 | 43.97 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-09-30 | 63.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-09-30 | 182.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-09-30 | 112.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-09-30 | 195.75 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-09-30 | 374.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-09-30 | 104.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-09-30 | 46.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-09-30 | 94.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-09-30 | 32.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-09-30 | 28.77 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-09-30 | 125.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-09-30 | 247.93 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-09-30 | 70.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-09-30 | 71.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-09-30 | 317.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-09-30 | 277.89 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-09-30 | 209.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-09-30 | 39.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 353179510459...abdbff76 |
| manifest.yaml | 7ca387f96494...5d18edaf |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 0197872d7a66...271931f6 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | f8b2aae1e38c...cc17ae57 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 6023c6cb9ee1...bddd1c7c |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 1276a9c96371...133a2fc3 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 22ba5500f8c2...92cf6318 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 8ba13b3bc27d...f25b4b36 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |