Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +42.14%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 70.8 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-10-28 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260928-1M-clean
30,046 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-09-28-1M
- Decision date: 2026-09-28
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-09-26T19:36:08Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-09-28T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-09-28
- Exit date: 2026-10-28
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. listed markets
At the September 25 close, the S&P 500 was 7,743.41, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 51,828.62, the Nasdaq Composite was 27,068.72, and the Russell 2000 was 2,837.55. For the week ending September 25, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, the Dow 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%; the Russell 2000 fell 0.8%. NYSE Research described breadth as weaker over the week: the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 rose about 1%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 and small- and mid-cap indexes moved slightly lower.
## Rates, inflation, and economic activity
On September 25, U.S. Treasury par yields were 4.81% at two years, 5.17% at ten years, and 5.49% at thirty years. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote.
In August, CPI rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted from July; its 12-month increase was 3.4%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% over twelve months. Final-demand PPI rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted in August and 5.4% unadjusted over twelve months; final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% for the month and 4.7% over twelve months. BLS revised April–July PPI figures for late reports and respondent corrections.
August nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 and unemployment was 4.1%; BLS revised June and July payroll growth upward by a combined 55,000. The second estimate of real GDP growth for 2026 Q2 was 1.5% at an annual rate. July personal income rose 0.4% and personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2%. ISM's August Manufacturing PMI was 54.6; its Services PMI was 55.4, with a Services Employment Index of 47.8 and Prices Index of 72.6. These are diffusion-index readings from ISM survey panels.
## Energy
Brent crude briefly traded below $98 per barrel on September 25, according to market reporting; this was an intraday observation, not a settlement price.
## Scheduled releases during the September 28–October 28 scoring window
- September 29, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August.
- September 30, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA GDP third estimate for 2026 Q2 and Personal Income and Outlays for August.
- September 30, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment for August.
- October 1, 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI for September.
- October 2, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS Employment Situation for September.
- October 5, 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI for September.
- October 7, 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve minutes from the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
- October 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS CPI for September; 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve Beige Book.
- October 15, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS PPI for September.
- October 16, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for September; 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
- October 27–28: Federal Open Market Committee meeting and press conference.
- October 28, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment for September.
This briefing contains no source links or option-level judgments. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. A complete, option-order mechanical appendix follows.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-09-28-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-09-28-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-09-28'
decision_deadline: '2026-09-28T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-09-26T19:35:48.873523+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-09-28'
exit_date: '2026-10-28'
created_at: '2026-09-26T19:35:48.873523+00:00'
notes: 'Fresh direct public-source research frozen on 2026-09-26 America/Toronto; research cutoff 2026-09-26T19:36:08Z; latest completed U.S. market session 2026-09-25. One-shot closed-capability calls have tools and search disabled.'# Market Briefing
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. listed markets
At the September 25 close, the S&P 500 was 7,743.41, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 51,828.62, the Nasdaq Composite was 27,068.72, and the Russell 2000 was 2,837.55. For the week ending September 25, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, the Dow 0.3%, and the Nasdaq 2.1%; the Russell 2000 fell 0.8%. NYSE Research described breadth as weaker over the week: the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 rose about 1%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 and small- and mid-cap indexes moved slightly lower.
## Rates, inflation, and economic activity
On September 25, U.S. Treasury par yields were 4.81% at two years, 5.17% at ten years, and 5.49% at thirty years. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 0.25 percentage point to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote.
In August, CPI rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted from July; its 12-month increase was 3.4%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% for the month and 2.4% over twelve months. Final-demand PPI rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted in August and 5.4% unadjusted over twelve months; final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.3% for the month and 4.7% over twelve months. BLS revised April–July PPI figures for late reports and respondent corrections.
August nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 and unemployment was 4.1%; BLS revised June and July payroll growth upward by a combined 55,000. The second estimate of real GDP growth for 2026 Q2 was 1.5% at an annual rate. July personal income rose 0.4% and personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2%. ISM's August Manufacturing PMI was 54.6; its Services PMI was 55.4, with a Services Employment Index of 47.8 and Prices Index of 72.6. These are diffusion-index readings from ISM survey panels.
## Energy
Brent crude briefly traded below $98 per barrel on September 25, according to market reporting; this was an intraday observation, not a settlement price.
## Scheduled releases during the September 28–October 28 scoring window
- September 29, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for August.
- September 30, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA GDP third estimate for 2026 Q2 and Personal Income and Outlays for August.
- September 30, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment for August.
- October 1, 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI for September.
- October 2, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS Employment Situation for September.
- October 5, 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI for September.
- October 7, 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve minutes from the September 15–16 FOMC meeting.
- October 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS CPI for September; 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve Beige Book.
- October 15, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS PPI for September.
- October 16, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes for September; 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization.
- October 27–28: Federal Open Market Committee meeting and press conference.
- October 28, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment for September.
This briefing contains no source links or option-level judgments. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. A complete, option-order mechanical appendix follows.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "b778f2f2bebe80877e9ed952b41fb8640da62d8d2ba6ab7897637bd760efaba9",
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}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-28-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-28-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-28-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-28-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-28-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-28-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-28-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Only biotech combines a strong prior relative trend with a sharp recent relative pullback that is not clearly explained by the rate shock, so it is the sole overreaction candidate at 56%. Small caps and financials have quality pullbacks but their weakness is consistent with the Fed hike and 5%+ yields, so they are labeled no_edge near 50%. Continuation names (semis, Taiwan, cyber, Korea) lack independent in-window catalysts and carry extreme vol and light volume, so they sit near coin-flip. Bond dislocations and utilities/solar/defense are fundamental deterioration. Net: modest biotech sleeve, remainder SPY.
Narrow mega-cap-led tape: SPY up 1.27% on the week while equal-weight, small caps and 65% of the universe fell over 21 sessions. The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sept 16 with 10y at 5.17% and CPI 3.4%/PPI 5.4%, so duration, rate-sensitive defensives and credit are under pressure; the Oct 27-28 FOMC sits inside the window. Cross-sectional dispersion is wide and the pattern is mixed: semis/Taiwan/cyber continuation coexists with broad rate-driven selloffs in bonds, utilities, small caps and financials. Most of these pullbacks look fundamentally rate-driven rather than pure overreaction, so I hold a modest number of eligible reversal candidates and otherwise lean toward SPY.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oct 27-28 FOMC and Oct 14 CPI could trigger another hawkish repricing that hits high-beta and rate-sensitive candidates",
"Biotech carries 29% vol and financing sensitivity; its pullback may extend if yields rise further",
"Narrow mega-cap leadership could persist, making SPY hard to beat for broad or small-cap tilts",
"Semis/Taiwan/Korea rallies on light volume are vulnerable to sharp reversals given 23-29% drawdowns"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +16.98% then recent active -8.87% with only -8.56% from 52w high",
"highest quality score 0.746; recent pullback rank 0.940 on top prior rank 0.925",
"volume z -0.14, no dislocation; drawdown -10.51% moderate for 29% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -6.36% vs prior +2.04%; quality score 0.745",
"Russell 2000 fell 0.8% while S&P rose 1.2%; Fed hike and 5.17% 10y weigh on small caps",
"corr to SPY 0.82, beta 1.18; drawdown -7.44%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -6.48% after flat prior +0.13%; quality 0.741",
"high yield credit -2.02% 21s and steeper curve are mixed for banks",
"beta 0.61, drawdown -6.55%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +26.87%, recent active +8.20%, weekly +5.86%",
"vol 42.58%, drawdown -23.12%, beta 2.38; still -9.32% from 52w high",
"volume z -0.83 indicates rally on lighter participation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active rank 1.000 (+32.71%), recent active +6.95%, -0.74% from 52w high",
"vol 35.16%, beta 1.86; dollar up 2.14% over 21s is a headwind",
"volume z -0.85"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +29.41%, recent active +6.85%, -2.94% from 52w high",
"volume z +0.18, drawdown -9.53% shallower than other tech themes",
"lower SPY corr 0.50 gives idiosyncratic outcome"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -10.84% and pullback rank 1.000, but prior active -4.31% and -18.33% from high",
"gold -6.61% and silver -17.71% prior active; strong dollar +2.14% 21s",
"vol 36.17%, volume z -0.88"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +30.27%, recent active +3.53%, but -14.61% from 52w high",
"vol 61.52% and drawdown -28.57% are worst in universe; beta 2.81",
"volume z -0.93"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 7,743.41, +1.2% on week, -0.59% from 52w high",
"vol 11.47%, drawdown -3.38%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -10.38% following prior active -11.60%: persistent relative downtrend",
"drawdown -15.88%, -15.46% from 52w high",
"quality score 0.548 with prior rank only 0.433"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s return +16.47% but weekly -3.57%; Brent traded below $98 intraday Sept 25",
"vol 51.50%, lowest quality score 0.216, prior active -10.45%",
"negative SPY beta -1.34 offers diversification but no directional edge"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active -22.46% (rank 0.015) and recent active -9.46%; -15.50% from high",
"Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, 10y 5.17%, 30y 5.49%: rate-sensitive selloff is fundamentally driven",
"volume z +0.37 with continued selling"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 3.32 with -1.04% weekly return and -4.05% recent active",
"prior active -17.76%; rising yields and 5.4% PPI keep duration pressured",
"vol 5.45% caps both upside and downside vs SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.86, highest in universe, on -1.66% weekly and -5.43% drawdown at 52w low",
"prior active -17.86%; TLT -4.41% 21s and Fed hike confirm rate-driven pressure",
"low vol 3.82% limits relative upside"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active -30.74% (rank 0.000) and recent active -10.61%; -40.40% from 52w high",
"drawdown -26.51%, vol 36.30%, quality 0.310",
"higher rates (10y 5.17%) hurt financing-dependent clean energy"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"BIOTECH",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Narrow mega-cap-led tape: SPY up 1.27% on the week while equal-weight, small caps and 65% of the universe fell over 21 sessions. The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sept 16 with 10y at 5.17% and CPI 3.4%/PPI 5.4%, so duration, rate-sensitive defensives and credit are under pressure; the Oct 27-28 FOMC sits inside the window. Cross-sectional dispersion is wide and the pattern is mixed: semis/Taiwan/cyber continuation coexists with broad rate-driven selloffs in bonds, utilities, small caps and financials. Most of these pullbacks look fundamentally rate-driven rather than pure overreaction, so I hold a modest number of eligible reversal candidates and otherwise lean toward SPY.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only biotech combines a strong prior relative trend with a sharp recent relative pullback that is not clearly explained by the rate shock, so it is the sole overreaction candidate at 56%. Small caps and financials have quality pullbacks but their weakness is consistent with the Fed hike and 5%+ yields, so they are labeled no_edge near 50%. Continuation names (semis, Taiwan, cyber, Korea) lack independent in-window catalysts and carry extreme vol and light volume, so they sit near coin-flip. Bond dislocations and utilities/solar/defense are fundamental deterioration. Net: modest biotech sleeve, remainder SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Narrow mega-cap-led tape: SPY up 1.27% on the week while equal-weight, small caps and 65% of the universe fell over 21 sessions. The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sept 16 with 10y at 5.17% and CPI 3.4%/PPI 5.4%, so duration, rate-sensitive defensives and credit are under pressure; the Oct 27-28 FOMC sits inside the window. Cross-sectional dispersion is wide and the pattern is mixed: semis/Taiwan/cyber continuation coexists with broad rate-driven selloffs in bonds, utilities, small caps and financials. Most of these pullbacks look fundamentally rate-driven rather than pure overreaction, so I hold a modest number of eligible reversal candidates and otherwise lean toward SPY.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27452,
"latency_seconds": 50.98068042800878,
"output_tokens": 4296,
"total_tokens": 31748
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
No candidate has a strong enough overreaction case to justify a probability of 55% or more. Hawkish rates undermine reversal trades in rate-sensitive and small-cap names, and momentum names carry high-beta reversal risk. SPY is ranked first, and the default SPY allocation is appropriate.
The market is narrow and cap-weighted. SPY rose 0.94% over 21 sessions while RSP fell 4.6%, and only 35% of assets were positive. The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, 10y yields are 5.17%, and inflation is sticky, which pressures duration and rate-sensitive assets. A dense data calendar and an FOMC meeting on Oct 27-28 create two-way risk, and concentrated mega-cap tech leadership could either persist or mean-revert.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC on Oct 27-28 or a hot CPI on Oct 14 moves yields sharply",
"Mega-cap tech concentration unwinds, which hurts SPY relative to broad breadth",
"A sharp broadening rally in which small caps and financials outperform",
"An oil supply shock"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; 21d return 0.94%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.741",
"-6.48% active over 21d with a flat prior trend",
"A steeper curve (2y 4.81%, 10y 5.17%) aids net interest margins"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.745",
"Fed hiking and 5%+ yields weigh on small caps"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return +29.41%",
"2.94% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Beta 2.38 and volatility 42.6%",
"5d return +5.86%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.74% below 52w high",
"Strong USD (UUP +2.14% over 21d) is a headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.746",
"High rates hurt biotech financing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-10.38% active over 21d",
"15.46% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volatility 61.5%",
"Max drawdown -28.57%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-10.84% active over 21d",
"Strong USD and gold down 6.6%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+16.47% over 21d, then -3.57% over 5d",
"Brent below $98 intraday"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"30y yield 5.49% after a Fed hike",
"Prior active return -22.46%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"40.4% below 52w high",
"Rising rates"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 5.86",
"Low beta, with yields rising"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 3.32",
"Duration hit by 5%+ yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"BIOTECH",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is narrow and cap-weighted. SPY rose 0.94% over 21 sessions while RSP fell 4.6%, and only 35% of assets were positive. The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, 10y yields are 5.17%, and inflation is sticky, which pressures duration and rate-sensitive assets. A dense data calendar and an FOMC meeting on Oct 27-28 create two-way risk, and concentrated mega-cap tech leadership could either persist or mean-revert.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SP500",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_CAP"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No candidate has a strong enough overreaction case to justify a probability of 55% or more. Hawkish rates undermine reversal trades in rate-sensitive and small-cap names, and momentum names carry high-beta reversal risk. SPY is ranked first, and the default SPY allocation is appropriate.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "The market is narrow and cap-weighted. SPY rose 0.94% over 21 sessions while RSP fell 4.6%, and only 35% of assets were positive. The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, 10y yields are 5.17%, and inflation is sticky, which pressures duration and rate-sensitive assets. A dense data calendar and an FOMC meeting on Oct 27-28 create two-way risk, and concentrated mega-cap tech leadership could either persist or mean-revert.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27452,
"latency_seconds": 27.938371557975188,
"output_tokens": 3081,
"total_tokens": 30533
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
Selecting candidates with significant recent pullbacks that appear to be overreactions.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent rate hikes and moderate economic growth.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued rate hikes could pressure equities.",
"Economic slowdown could impact cyclical sectors."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -10.84%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -10.61%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -10.38%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -9.46%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -8.87%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is 6.95%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is 3.53%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is 6.85%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is 15.54%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is 8.20%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -6.36%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -6.48%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -4.73%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -4.05%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"BIOTECH",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE": 30,
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SOLAR": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is showing mixed signals with recent rate hikes and moderate economic growth.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Selecting candidates with significant recent pullbacks that appear to be overreactions.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is showing mixed signals with recent rate hikes and moderate economic growth.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18847,
"latency_seconds": 20.82195715000853,
"output_tokens": 2851,
"total_tokens": 21698
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
The leading judgments are modest, selective overshoot reversals rather than a broad rotation forecast. Financials have the strongest balance of activity support and measured risk; biotech has the clearest prior-strength/pullback contrast; metals and mining have an activity-supported but volatile reversal case. Quality scores are price-derived evidence, not proof of business quality. None of the recent technology winners has enough independent supplied support to justify extrapolating its gains.
Large relative-return gaps and weak breadth indicate high dispersion, although the supplied dispersion statistic is blank. The rate hike and persistent inflation provide fundamental reasons for some laggards to remain weak. Selective reversal looks more attractive than indiscriminate dip buying or extrapolating technology leadership. Expansionary activity readings support a modest cyclical rebound, but the October inflation releases and exit-day FOMC decision limit conviction.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October inflation releases or the October 28 FOMC decision could raise yields further and extend financing-sensitive underperformance.",
"Weak breadth may reflect durable concentration in large-cap growth rather than a temporary relative-price overshoot.",
"PMI expansion may fail to translate into financial-sector credit resilience or metals demand as GDP growth remains modest.",
"Biotech and mining lack supplied company-level catalysts; their high volatility could overwhelm the small estimated reversal edge."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent 21-session active return is -6.48%, following a roughly flat prior relative window; quality evidence score is 0.741.",
"Manufacturing and services PMIs of 54.6 and 55.4 and payroll growth of 162,000 argue against an immediate broad activity collapse.",
"The 10-year yield exceeds the two-year yield by 0.36 percentage point, offering a potential offset to higher funding costs, although no bank-specific earnings evidence is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The -8.87% recent active return contrasts with +16.98% prior active return and a 0.746 quality evidence score.",
"Volume z-score of -0.14 supplies little evidence of exceptional liquidation; the pullback is a tentative relative overshoot rather than a confirmed capitulation.",
"The September rate hike is a genuine financing headwind, and no clinical or merger catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -10.84% is much worse than the prior -4.31%; quality evidence score is 0.601.",
"Manufacturing PMI of 54.6 provides independent activity support for a selective industrial-materials reversal.",
"Volatility of 36.17% and a -12.17% drawdown make this a low-conviction reversal; volume z-score of -0.88 does not confirm capitulation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the benchmark, so its excess return is identically zero.",
"SPY gained 0.94% over 21 sessions while equal-weight equities lost 4.60%; benchmark strength has narrow participation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score of 0.745 and prior active return of +2.04% favor testing the -6.36% relative pullback for reversal.",
"The Fed raised rates while high-yield bonds fell 2.02% over 21 sessions, creating a plausible financing explanation for small-cap weakness.",
"The Russell 2000 declined during a week of rising large-cap indexes, with no supplied company-level catalyst to reverse the divergence."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns are +6.85% and +29.41%, but no cybersecurity-specific operating catalyst is supplied.",
"Volume z-score is +0.18 and drawdown is -9.53%, less severe than semiconductor drawdown, but volatility remains 33.91%.",
"Higher rates challenge reliance on growth-stock leadership alone."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The 21-session gain of 16.47% contrasts with a five-session loss of 3.57% and prior active return of -10.45%.",
"Brent briefly traded below $98, but the briefing supplies no specific supply disruption or inventory catalyst.",
"Volatility is 51.50% and SPY correlation is -0.35, implying substantial two-sided relative outcomes rather than a reliable continuation edge."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 19,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return is +32.71% and recent active return is +6.95%, but no Taiwan-specific earnings or demand catalyst is supplied.",
"The fund is only 0.74% below its high, with volume z-score of -0.85 and a -17.68% horizon drawdown.",
"Dollar strength of 2.14% over 21 sessions is a potential headwind to unhedged foreign-equity returns."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Five-session return of +5.86% and recent active return of +8.20% lack supplied chip-specific fundamental confirmation.",
"Volatility is 42.58%, beta is 2.38, and horizon drawdown is -23.12%.",
"Volume z-score of -0.83 and the recent Fed hike temper the case for chasing strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -10.38% follows prior underperformance of -11.60%, weakening the isolated-shock interpretation.",
"Drawdown is -15.88% and volume z-score is -0.09.",
"No defense-budget, aircraft-order, or delivery catalyst is supplied to distinguish an overshoot from persistent weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of +30.27% is strong, but no country-specific operating or policy catalyst is supplied.",
"Volatility of 61.52% and drawdown of -28.57% are the weakest cross-sectional quality components.",
"Volume z-score is -0.93; dollar strength and beta of 2.81 increase reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 5.86 is exceptional, but volume alone cannot establish forced selling or a near-term rebound.",
"The fund is at its measured 52-week-high distance of -5.43%, with volatility of 3.82%.",
"The rate hike and 5.17% ten-year Treasury yield provide a fundamental duration repricing explanation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score is 3.32, with recent active return of -4.05% and drawdown of -4.34%.",
"Higher rates create a plausible duration and prepayment-related explanation for weakness.",
"No mortgage-spread or fund-flow evidence is supplied to establish a temporary dislocation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -9.46% follows prior active return of -22.46%, rather than a previously healthy relative trend.",
"The Fed hike and 5.49% thirty-year Treasury yield worsen the valuation backdrop for rate-sensitive defensive equities.",
"Quality evidence score is 0.392 despite the large pullback; low SPY beta does not eliminate rate risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -10.61% follows prior active return of -30.74%; the fund is 40.40% below its high.",
"Quality evidence score is 0.310, with drawdown of -26.51% and volatility of 36.30%.",
"Higher financing rates provide a plausible continuing headwind, and no solar-specific policy or demand improvement is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"BIOTECH",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 35,
"METALS_MINING": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"BIOTECH",
"METALS_MINING"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Large relative-return gaps and weak breadth indicate high dispersion, although the supplied dispersion statistic is blank. The rate hike and persistent inflation provide fundamental reasons for some laggards to remain weak. Selective reversal looks more attractive than indiscriminate dip buying or extrapolating technology leadership. Expansionary activity readings support a modest cyclical rebound, but the October inflation releases and exit-day FOMC decision limit conviction.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"FINANCIALS",
"BIOTECH",
"METALS_MINING"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The leading judgments are modest, selective overshoot reversals rather than a broad rotation forecast. Financials have the strongest balance of activity support and measured risk; biotech has the clearest prior-strength/pullback contrast; metals and mining have an activity-supported but volatile reversal case. Quality scores are price-derived evidence, not proof of business quality. None of the recent technology winners has enough independent supplied support to justify extrapolating its gains.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Large relative-return gaps and weak breadth indicate high dispersion, although the supplied dispersion statistic is blank. The rate hike and persistent inflation provide fundamental reasons for some laggards to remain weak. Selective reversal looks more attractive than indiscriminate dip buying or extrapolating technology leadership. Expansionary activity readings support a modest cyclical rebound, but the October inflation releases and exit-day FOMC decision limit conviction.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15585,
"latency_seconds": 65.53742350399261,
"output_tokens": 3713,
"reasoning_tokens": 195,
"total_tokens": 19298
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Top ranks favor continuation in semiconductors and select international/tech with supported recent strength; reversal candidates assessed but only three meet overreaction plus 55% p_beat threshold.
Breadth weak with equal-weight and small-caps lagging SPY; tech and select international showing relative strength amid rising rates and mixed macro data.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rising Treasury yields pressuring rate-sensitive sectors",
"Weak breadth and equal-weight underperformance",
"Upcoming labor and inflation data releases"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -10.84%",
"quality score 0.601",
"volume z -0.88"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"quality score 0.310",
"52w-high distance -40.40%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.4,
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"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
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"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -10.38%",
"quality score 0.548",
"horizon vol 20.97%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
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"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -9.46%",
"quality score 0.392",
"SPY corr 0.13"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -8.87%",
"quality score 0.746",
"prior active 16.98%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 6.95%",
"quality score 0.486",
"52w-high distance -0.74%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 3.53%",
"quality score 0.493",
"horizon vol 61.52%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 6.85%",
"quality score 0.499",
"52w-high distance -2.94%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 15.54%",
"quality score 0.216",
"SPY corr -0.35"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 8.20%",
"quality score 0.444",
"prior active 26.87%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 3.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -6.36%",
"quality score 0.745",
"horizon vol 13.13%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -6.48%",
"quality score 0.741",
"horizon vol 13.38%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -4.73%",
"quality score 0.455",
"volume z 5.86"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -4.05%",
"quality score 0.460",
"volume z 3.32"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 0.00%",
"SPY corr 1.00",
"horizon vol 11.47%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"BIOTECH",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Breadth weak with equal-weight and small-caps lagging SPY; tech and select international showing relative strength amid rising rates and mixed macro data.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks favor continuation in semiconductors and select international/tech with supported recent strength; reversal candidates assessed but only three meet overreaction plus 55% p_beat threshold.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Breadth weak with equal-weight and small-caps lagging SPY; tech and select international showing relative strength amid rising rates and mixed macro data.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-5
Highest-conviction edges are quality pullback/shock overreactions in BIOTECH, SMALL_CAP and FINANCIALS with p_beat>=55; tech/Asia continuations carry high vol and already extended; bonds face rate headwind; prefer SPY as base given weak breadth and event risk.
Post-hike rates elevated with sticky CPI/PPI; mega-cap/tech leadership and weak breadth (RSP lagging SPY); mixed growth signals and scheduled data/FOMC create two-way risk over one-month window.
{
"confidence": 0.5867,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further Fed hawkishness or higher yields after data/FOMC minutes pressuring duration and rate-sensitive names",
"Continued mega-cap concentration leaving small-cap/biotech reversals incomplete",
"High-vol Asia/semis drawdown risk if growth data disappoints",
"Oil/commodity volatility spilling into risk appetite"
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{
"evidence": [
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"Horizon vol 29% and drawdown -10.5% leave room for mean-reversion"
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
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"quality_pullback"
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"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.745; recent active -6.36% vs prior +2.04%",
"Weaker breadth noted with Russell 2000 down on week while SPY up",
"Lower horizon vol 13% and shallow max DD -7.44% vs peers"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
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"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
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{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.741 with high recent pullback rank",
"Recent active -6.48% after flat prior",
"Moderate vol 13.4% and DD -6.55%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -10.84% with quality score 0.601 and top pullback rank",
"High beta 1.76 and vol 36%",
"Distance to 52w high -18%"
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
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"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -10.38% after prior -11.60%",
"Quality 0.548 and high pullback rank",
"Vol 21% beta near 1"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong prior active +32.71% and recent +6.95%",
"Near 52w high (-0.74%)",
"High corr/beta to SPY and semis linkage"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
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"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +29.41% recent +6.85%",
"Quality 0.499 medium strength lane",
"Vol 34% near highs"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
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"medium_strength"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +5.86% active +8.20% after strong prior +26.87%",
"High vol 42.6% and DD -23%",
"Beta 2.38"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
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"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.27% recent +3.53%",
"Extremely high vol 61.5% and DD -28.6%",
"Beta 2.81"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with recent +1.27%",
"Low horizon vol 11.5% DD -3.4%",
"Near 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Deep prior active -22.46% and recent -9.46%",
"Quality only 0.392; rate-sensitive with yields elevated",
"Low beta 0.15"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -30.74% recent -10.61%",
"Quality 0.310 and 52w distance -40%",
"High vol/beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -3.57% after strong 21s active +15.54%",
"Negative SPY corr/beta; quality 0.216",
"Brent briefly below $98 noted"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.86 extreme; recent -1.66%",
"Low vol 3.8% but rates rising after Fed hike",
"Prior active deeply negative"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 3.32; recent -1.04%",
"Elevated yields and duration sensitivity",
"Quality 0.460"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"BIOTECH",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"FINANCIALS": 30,
"SMALL_CAP": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Post-hike rates elevated with sticky CPI/PPI; mega-cap/tech leadership and weak breadth (RSP lagging SPY); mixed growth signals and scheduled data/FOMC create two-way risk over one-month window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction edges are quality pullback/shock overreactions in BIOTECH, SMALL_CAP and FINANCIALS with p_beat>=55; tech/Asia continuations carry high vol and already extended; bonds face rate headwind; prefer SPY as base given weak breadth and event risk.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Post-hike rates elevated with sticky CPI/PPI; mega-cap/tech leadership and weak breadth (RSP lagging SPY); mixed growth signals and scheduled data/FOMC create two-way risk over one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-6
Breadth is weak versus a near-high SPY, duration is pressured by 5%+ long yields and a fresh hike, and high-vol continuation names (SMH, EWY, EWT) already ran. Highest-quality pullbacks (XBI, XLF, IWM) are the best relative-mean-reversion candidates but still have sub-55% odds of beating SPY over one month, so the diagnostic preference is the benchmark.
SPY is near a 52-week high after a 1.2% up week while equal-weight and small/mid indexes lagged, rates remain elevated after a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, and only ~43% of assets were positive over 5 sessions. Mega-cap/tech strength coexists with rate-sensitive and cyclical drawdowns, so one-month outcomes look mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October 14 CPI and October 27–28 FOMC can reprice duration and growth stocks inside the scoring window.",
"Continued mega-cap concentration if equal-weight and small-cap lag persists.",
"High-vol Asia/tech beta (Korea 61% vol, semis 43% vol) can reverse sharply on any growth scare.",
"Oil’s 5-session drop after a large 21-session gain can spill into energy-linked cyclicals."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.746 with prior active rank 0.925 and recent pullback rank 0.940.",
"Active return -8.87% over 21 sessions after +16.98% prior active return.",
"Horizon vol 29.21% and max drawdown -10.51%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.741 with recent pullback rank 0.821.",
"Active return -6.48% over 21 sessions with vol 13.38% and drawdown -6.55%.",
"SPY beta 0.61 and 52w-high distance -6.02%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.745; Russell 2000 fell 0.8% in the week ending Sep 25 while SPX rose 1.2%.",
"Active return -6.36% over 21 sessions after +2.04% prior active.",
"Vol 13.13%, drawdown -7.44%, 52w-high distance -7.33%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return +1.27% and 21-session +0.94% with distance to 52w high only -0.59%.",
"Horizon vol 11.47% and max drawdown -3.38%, lower than most slate risk assets.",
"Cap-weighted S&P 500 rose about 1% in the week while equal-weight lagged."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.970 and 21-session active return +6.85%.",
"Distance to 52w high -2.94% with vol 33.91%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.499."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 1.000 and 21-session active +6.95% after +32.71% prior active.",
"Distance to 52w high -0.74%; vol 35.16% and beta 1.86.",
"Quality evidence score 0.486."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active return -10.38% with recent pullback rank 0.970.",
"Vol 20.97%, drawdown -15.88%, 52w-high distance -15.46%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.548."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank 1.000 and 21-session active -10.84%.",
"Vol 36.17%, beta 1.76, 52w-high distance -18.33%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.601."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session return +5.86% and 21-session active +8.20% after +26.87% prior active.",
"Vol 42.58%, drawdown -23.12%, beta 2.38.",
"Recent pullback rank 0.015 and quality score 0.444."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.985 and prior active return +30.27%.",
"Horizon vol 61.52% and max drawdown -28.57%, lowest vol/drawdown ranks.",
"Beta 2.81 and 52w-high distance -14.61%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.015 and prior active return -22.46% with 21-session active -9.46%.",
"10-year Treasury yield 5.17% after a Sep 16 funds-rate hike.",
"SPY corr 0.13 and beta 0.15; 52w-high distance -15.50%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.000 and prior active return -30.74%.",
"Vol 36.30%, drawdown -26.51%, 52w-high distance -40.40%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.310."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active +15.54% but 5-session return -3.57%; Brent briefly below $98 on Sep 25.",
"Vol 51.50%, quality score 0.216, recent pullback rank 0.000.",
"Negative SPY corr -0.35 and beta -1.34."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 3.32 with 21-session active -4.05% and prior active -17.76%.",
"Vol 5.45% and 10y yield 5.17% after a 25bp hike.",
"Quality evidence score 0.460."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.86 with 21-session active -4.73% and prior active -17.86%.",
"Horizon vol 3.82% and 52w-high distance -5.43%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.455."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"BIOTECH",
"TAIWAN",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"FINANCIALS",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high after a 1.2% up week while equal-weight and small/mid indexes lagged, rates remain elevated after a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, and only ~43% of assets were positive over 5 sessions. Mega-cap/tech strength coexists with rate-sensitive and cyclical drawdowns, so one-month outcomes look mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"FINANCIALS",
"SMALL_CAP"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Breadth is weak versus a near-high SPY, duration is pressured by 5%+ long yields and a fresh hike, and high-vol continuation names (SMH, EWY, EWT) already ran. Highest-quality pullbacks (XBI, XLF, IWM) are the best relative-mean-reversion candidates but still have sub-55% odds of beating SPY over one month, so the diagnostic preference is the benchmark.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high after a 1.2% up week while equal-weight and small/mid indexes lagged, rates remain elevated after a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%, and only ~43% of assets were positive over 5 sessions. Mega-cap/tech strength coexists with rate-sensitive and cyclical drawdowns, so one-month outcomes look mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16964,
"latency_seconds": 38.87845326398383,
"output_tokens": 2937,
"reasoning_tokens": 448,
"total_tokens": 20349
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Biotechnology (XBI)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Metals and Mining (XME)35%Solar Energy (TAN)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Financials Sector (XLF)35%Biotechnology (XBI)35%Metals and Mining (XME)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Biotechnology (XBI)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)35%Financials Sector (XLF)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-09-25 | 213.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-09-25 | 90.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-09-25 | 28.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-09-25 | 28.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-09-25 | 124.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-09-25 | 155.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-09-25 | 47.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-09-25 | 36.82 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-09-25 | 65.97 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-09-25 | 19.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-09-25 | 59.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-09-25 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-09-25 | 52.62 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-09-25 | 112.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-09-25 | 110.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-09-25 | 82.06 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-09-25 | 40.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-09-25 | 148.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-09-25 | 100.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-09-25 | 71.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-09-25 | 92.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-09-25 | 60.16 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-09-25 | 62.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-09-25 | 211.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-09-25 | 20.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-09-25 | 105.15 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-09-25 | 88.63 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-09-25 | 54.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-09-25 | 80.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-09-25 | 170.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-09-25 | 77.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-09-25 | 47.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-09-25 | 170.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-09-25 | 90.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-09-25 | 46.94 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-09-25 | 103.21 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-09-25 | 97.93 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-09-25 | 58.30 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-09-25 | 79.32 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-09-25 | 49.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-09-25 | 108.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-09-25 | 73.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-09-25 | 101.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-09-25 | 744.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-09-25 | 41.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-09-25 | 71.55 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-09-25 | 771.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-09-25 | 606.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-09-25 | 91.62 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-09-25 | 58.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-09-25 | 106.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-09-25 | 44.06 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-09-25 | 66.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-09-25 | 187.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-09-25 | 114.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-09-25 | 196.27 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-09-25 | 379.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-09-25 | 104.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-09-25 | 47.32 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-09-25 | 95.12 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-09-25 | 33.21 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-09-25 | 28.62 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-09-25 | 126.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-09-25 | 251.93 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-09-25 | 71.30 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-09-25 | 72.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-09-25 | 318.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-09-25 | 281.97 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-09-25 | 213.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-09-25 | 39.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 4f254576c017...c0464b0e |
| manifest.yaml | 206060a05029...d792b11d |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 6c65083ea80e...8f243f6c |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 7a82cc37589c...1b4401e1 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | b778f2f2bebe...60efaba9 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 67f5959a228a...a5120a61 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | d6d58d4809be...2ba24c0a |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | dcf8db928652...5df75d14 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |