Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +31.25%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 72.2 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward growth and technology.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-04 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-monthly-20260804-clean
33,385 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-04-1M
- Decision date: 2026-08-04
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-05T01:57:05Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-05T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-08-04
- Exit date: 2026-09-04
- Entry rule: Use the Tuesday, August 4, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Friday, September 4, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-05T01:57:05Z. Decision date: August 4, 2026. Weekly scoring window: August 4-August 11. Monthly scoring window: August 4-September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and rates
- At the August 4 close, the S&P 500 was 7,736.52, up 1.8%; the Dow was 54,085.88, up 1.7%; the Nasdaq Composite was 26,584.99, up 2.6%; and the Russell 2000 was 3,036.98, up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Dow closes were records.
- Associated Press reported Brent crude at $79.36 per barrel on August 4, down 5.3% on the day, after trading roughly between $72 and $102 during July.
- Treasury's August 4 par yields were 4.04% at one year, 4.20% at two years, 4.33% at five years, 4.63% at ten years, and 5.18% at thirty years. Treasury states that these yields are interpolated from indicative bid-side quotations observed near 3:30 p.m. ET.
## U.S. policy and economic releases
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal-funds target at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement said inflation remained elevated relative to 2%.
- BEA's advance estimate put annualized real Q2 GDP growth at 1.5%, following 2.1% in Q1. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index rose 5.7%; headline and core PCE prices rose at annual rates of 5.1% and 3.4%. The estimate is scheduled for revision on August 26.
- In June, personal income and disposable income each rose 0.2%; current-dollar PCE rose 0.3%; real PCE rose 0.4%; and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% month over month and rose 3.7% year over year; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% year over year. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over the year. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% higher than a year earlier.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% month over month and rose 5.5% year over year. June figures are preliminary.
- June payroll employment rose by 57,000 and unemployment was 4.2%; BLS described both as little changed.
- June job openings were little changed at 7.4 million. Hires were 5.3 million, separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million.
## Business, consumer, housing, and trade releases
- The July ISM Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, up from 53.3. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, and prices 71.1.
- June industrial production rose 0.1% and was 1.1% above a year earlier. Manufacturing output was unchanged. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June figures are preliminary.
- June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% month over month and 6.7% year over year. Census said the monthly change was not statistically distinguishable from zero at 90% confidence.
- July Consumer Confidence was 90.8, down 1.4 points. The Present Situation Index was 114.9 and the Expectations Index was 74.7. The preliminary survey cutoff was July 22.
- June housing starts were at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from May; single-family starts were 895,000, down 0.2%. Permits were 1.367 million, down 3.0%. Census reported wide confidence intervals.
- The June goods-and-services trade deficit was $73.3 billion, down $4.4 billion from revised May. Exports were $314.7 billion and imports $388.0 billion. Year to date, the deficit was 33.8% below the same 2025 period.
## Global, energy, and geopolitical releases
- The IMF's July forecast projected global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, U.S. growth of 2.3% in 2026, euro-area growth of 0.9%, and advanced-economy growth of 1.7%. The IMF stated that global disinflation had stalled. These values are forecasts.
- On July 23, the ECB held its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%. It described uncertainty around the Middle East energy shock as high.
- The IEA's July assessment reported June Gulf oil exports, including bypass routes, at 16.1 million barrels per day versus a prewar average of 24 million. It reported June global refinery runs 6 million barrels per day below a year earlier.
- On August 4, Associated Press reported progress in Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, said negotiations were not final, and reported a cargo ship damaged by an unknown projectile in the strait. The status remained unresolved at the cutoff.
## Scheduled events inside the scoring windows
- August 5: Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; July ISM Services PMI; Disney fiscal Q3 results; Eli Lilly Q2 results.
- August 6: BLS preliminary Q2 productivity and costs.
- August 7: BLS July Employment Situation.
- August 11: weekly scoring-window adjusted close.
- August 12: BLS July CPI.
- August 13: BLS July PPI.
- August 14: Census July retail sales.
- August 18: Federal Reserve July industrial production.
- August 25: Conference Board August Consumer Confidence.
- August 26: BEA Q2 GDP second estimate, preliminary corporate profits, and July personal income and outlays.
- September 3: Census and BEA July international trade.
- September 4: BLS August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET; monthly scoring-window adjusted close.
## Final neutrality statement
These are fixed, dated datapoints and scheduled statuses available by the cutoff. They are not forecasts except where explicitly labeled, and they do not rank, recommend, interpret, or map CapitalBench choices. Complete deterministic full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and V2.2 quality evidence is supplied separately and mechanically in the model input.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-04-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-04'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-05T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-05T01:54:41.608347+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Tuesday, August 4, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Friday, September 4, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-04'
exit_date: '2026-09-04'
created_at: '2026-08-05T01:54:41.608347+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-05T01:57:05Z. Decision date: August 4, 2026. Weekly scoring window: August 4-August 11. Monthly scoring window: August 4-September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and rates
- At the August 4 close, the S&P 500 was 7,736.52, up 1.8%; the Dow was 54,085.88, up 1.7%; the Nasdaq Composite was 26,584.99, up 2.6%; and the Russell 2000 was 3,036.98, up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Dow closes were records.
- Associated Press reported Brent crude at $79.36 per barrel on August 4, down 5.3% on the day, after trading roughly between $72 and $102 during July.
- Treasury's August 4 par yields were 4.04% at one year, 4.20% at two years, 4.33% at five years, 4.63% at ten years, and 5.18% at thirty years. Treasury states that these yields are interpolated from indicative bid-side quotations observed near 3:30 p.m. ET.
## U.S. policy and economic releases
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal-funds target at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement said inflation remained elevated relative to 2%.
- BEA's advance estimate put annualized real Q2 GDP growth at 1.5%, following 2.1% in Q1. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index rose 5.7%; headline and core PCE prices rose at annual rates of 5.1% and 3.4%. The estimate is scheduled for revision on August 26.
- In June, personal income and disposable income each rose 0.2%; current-dollar PCE rose 0.3%; real PCE rose 0.4%; and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% month over month and rose 3.7% year over year; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% year over year. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over the year. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% higher than a year earlier.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% month over month and rose 5.5% year over year. June figures are preliminary.
- June payroll employment rose by 57,000 and unemployment was 4.2%; BLS described both as little changed.
- June job openings were little changed at 7.4 million. Hires were 5.3 million, separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million.
## Business, consumer, housing, and trade releases
- The July ISM Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, up from 53.3. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, and prices 71.1.
- June industrial production rose 0.1% and was 1.1% above a year earlier. Manufacturing output was unchanged. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June figures are preliminary.
- June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% month over month and 6.7% year over year. Census said the monthly change was not statistically distinguishable from zero at 90% confidence.
- July Consumer Confidence was 90.8, down 1.4 points. The Present Situation Index was 114.9 and the Expectations Index was 74.7. The preliminary survey cutoff was July 22.
- June housing starts were at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from May; single-family starts were 895,000, down 0.2%. Permits were 1.367 million, down 3.0%. Census reported wide confidence intervals.
- The June goods-and-services trade deficit was $73.3 billion, down $4.4 billion from revised May. Exports were $314.7 billion and imports $388.0 billion. Year to date, the deficit was 33.8% below the same 2025 period.
## Global, energy, and geopolitical releases
- The IMF's July forecast projected global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, U.S. growth of 2.3% in 2026, euro-area growth of 0.9%, and advanced-economy growth of 1.7%. The IMF stated that global disinflation had stalled. These values are forecasts.
- On July 23, the ECB held its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%. It described uncertainty around the Middle East energy shock as high.
- The IEA's July assessment reported June Gulf oil exports, including bypass routes, at 16.1 million barrels per day versus a prewar average of 24 million. It reported June global refinery runs 6 million barrels per day below a year earlier.
- On August 4, Associated Press reported progress in Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, said negotiations were not final, and reported a cargo ship damaged by an unknown projectile in the strait. The status remained unresolved at the cutoff.
## Scheduled events inside the scoring windows
- August 5: Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; July ISM Services PMI; Disney fiscal Q3 results; Eli Lilly Q2 results.
- August 6: BLS preliminary Q2 productivity and costs.
- August 7: BLS July Employment Situation.
- August 11: weekly scoring-window adjusted close.
- August 12: BLS July CPI.
- August 13: BLS July PPI.
- August 14: Census July retail sales.
- August 18: Federal Reserve July industrial production.
- August 25: Conference Board August Consumer Confidence.
- August 26: BEA Q2 GDP second estimate, preliminary corporate profits, and July personal income and outlays.
- September 3: Census and BEA July international trade.
- September 4: BLS August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET; monthly scoring-window adjusted close.
## Final neutrality statement
These are fixed, dated datapoints and scheduled statuses available by the cutoff. They are not forecasts except where explicitly labeled, and they do not rank, recommend, interpret, or map CapitalBench choices. Complete deterministic full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and V2.2 quality evidence is supplied separately and mechanically in the model input.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "8867d2beab94d6e43833c054c911d08bbab8cceafee0184e7c5b94953efd25bc",
"manifest.yaml": "fc00696229a62ba5abc12c83e12154fe67d73ad64f1b4f58942e25b7340b6a11",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "073a73508e18b3f6d945ada4780eb5c180b5b450ba9fdf02c08018c2c595bc88",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "d629d140f8fb97591536a62dce13df9fc868a866874c88690bb28669f5041a17",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "401e99955ca25da3939e9f88fe86f20f69dac72392b1c19960faad8d59f53af5",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "e61d4585419c2ace7b412fec75941a8a0bc324b245d48585e27eef02207cab50",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "f43fcf423201ddb1447b913ac2c6b8cda6fa80fb5df6a36caac9f42f9b7a9970",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "18e36c777c256251c051428ff93eab4627ff2fccc3deb6bb0dd1d5f22d7ac764",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "ef3cf65c548d3cc3229f74393dc61292363e4cb8a6e609b4a75e4c2062b6698e",
"submission_schema.json": "722025ee45d276e3f4d132a6be281de790a0c5478dc0051f23ade0524ff79571"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Core SPY anchor plus semiconductor/Taiwan exposure with strong prior trends bought on recent relative pullbacks, hedged with negatively-correlated energy given unresolved Hormuz supply risk.
Barbell of AI-chip supply chain (SMH/EWT) on pullback entries and energy as a geopolitical hedge over a 40% SPY core; clusters stay within the 50% cap.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong ISM, resilient private demand (final sales +3.9%), improving inflation prints",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Record close 7,736.52 on Aug 4",
"July ISM Manufacturing 55.6, up from 53.3",
"Core CPI +2.6% y/y, core PCE +0.1% m/m"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI print shifting Fed expectations toward hikes",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated headline inflation and hawkish Fed dissenters could reprice rates higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 payrolls, Aug 12 CPI, Aug 26 GDP second estimate"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dominant prior trend with recent relative pullback offering re-entry; AI theme intact",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active return +39.52%, recent 21s active -7.40%",
"Quality evidence score 0.736, near top of universe",
"Tech sector +9.24% over 5s indicating renewed demand"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below pullback lows or negative capex guidance",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "High vol (56%) and 24.6% drawdown history; growth de-rating on rates",
"time_window_catalyst": "AI infrastructure earnings and demand data through August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Leveraged to same chip cycle as SMH with strong prior trend and pullback entry",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active +46.99% with recent -7.39% active pullback",
"Quality evidence score 0.755, second highest in universe",
"Dollar weakening (UUP -1.47% 5s) supports non-US assets"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional escalation or sharp dollar rebound",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"reversal_case": "Geopolitical risk or global electronics demand slowdown",
"time_window_catalyst": "Semiconductor supply-chain demand data through window"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Structural supply deficit persists; negative beta hedges equity risk",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IEA: June Gulf exports 16.1 mbd vs 24 prewar",
"Hormuz talks unresolved; cargo ship damaged Aug 4",
"XLE active +7.48% over 21s, beta -0.25 vs SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Signed shipping agreement and Brent sustained below $70",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Hormuz deal finalizes, restoring flows; Brent already -5.3% on Aug 4",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman Strait talks resolution timing"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Same chip cycle exposure as Taiwan with steepest prior trend",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active +48.38% but 84% volatility and -34% drawdown",
"Recent 21s active -12.52%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 15,
"forecast_low_pct": -15,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued relative breakdown vs SPY",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility and beta 2.7 make one-month outcome nearly random",
"time_window_catalyst": "Semiconductor export data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dollar weakness and geopolitical risk could lift safe-haven demand",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active -19.19%, 24.5% below 52-week high",
"Weak dollar (UUP -1.5% 5s) mildly supportive"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Further slide despite dollar weakness",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Downtrend intact; real yields elevated with 10y at 4.63%",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz escalation or CPI surprise"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could spark a duration rally",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"30y yield 5.18%; TLT -2.69% over 21s",
"Fed dissenters preferred a hike; inflation elevated vs 2%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI pushing 10y above 4.8%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation and heavy refunding supply keep yields rising",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 refunding announcement, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Deep pullback could mean-revert if yields fall",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-5.30% active over 21s, -6.34% off 52w high",
"Rate-sensitive with 30y yield at 5.18%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Long yields rising further",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "Rising long yields continue pressuring the sector",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rate moves around CPI and refunding"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.95,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot July CPI (Aug 12) with Fed dissenters favoring hikes could hit high-beta tech",
"Hormuz resolution would deflate energy quickly (Brent already -5.3% on Aug 4)",
"Semis/Taiwan volatility (56%/45%) can produce large drawdowns in one month",
"Weak Aug 7 or Sep 4 payrolls could sour risk appetite broadly"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot July CPI or sharp payroll miss triggering rate-hike repricing",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Record-high close with strong ISM (55.6) and cooling core inflation; solid benchmark core.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 jobs report, Aug 12 CPI, Aug 26 GDP revision"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 3,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent pullback lows or negative AI capex guidance from major chipmakers",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strongest prior active trend (+39.5% prior 105s) with deep recent pullback (-7.4% active 21s), top-decile quality evidence; AI capex cycle intact per broad tech strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing AI-related earnings momentum through August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Escalating regional geopolitical tension or dollar reversal higher",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Very strong prior active trend (+47%) with meaningful recent pullback (-7.4% active), leveraged to same semiconductor demand; weaker dollar (UUP -1.5% 5s) is a tailwind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global semiconductor demand data and dollar weakness through the window"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Finalized Hormuz shipping agreement restoring Gulf export flows, Brent below $70",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Gulf exports still 16.1 vs 24 mbd prewar, Hormuz status unresolved; sector +7.5% active 21s with negative SPY beta provides hedge against oil-shock scenarios.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz talks unresolved at cutoff; supply disruption risk"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.95,
"portfolio_rationale": "Core SPY anchor plus semiconductor/Taiwan exposure with strong prior trends bought on recent relative pullbacks, hedged with negatively-correlated energy given unresolved Hormuz supply risk.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Barbell of AI-chip supply chain (SMH/EWT) on pullback entries and energy as a geopolitical hedge over a 40% SPY core; clusters stay within the 50% cap.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27781,
"latency_seconds": 112.02768543292768,
"output_tokens": 3449,
"total_tokens": 31230
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Core SP500 exposure combined with two above-benchmark tilts: cybersecurity for secular growth with favorable pullback quality, and industrials backed by the strong July ISM manufacturing beat.
Balanced tilt around record-high SPY, adding CYBERSECURITY and INDUSTRIALS which clear the SPY base hurdle on fundamental and quality evidence.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad breadth and record close with resilient economy support continuation.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 record close 7,736.52 up 1.8%",
"79.7% positive asset share over 5 days",
"ISM Manufacturing 55.6"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI reaccelerates and SPY breaks 21-day support",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and 9-3 hawkish FOMC vote could trigger pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12, payrolls Aug 7 and Sept 4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong trend with secular demand and shallow drawdown.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.940",
"Quality score 0.511",
"At 52w high, distance 0.00%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "CIBR breaks below 21-day trend",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "High beta 1.10 tech exposure vulnerable to growth risk-off.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech earnings continuing in August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Manufacturing rebound supports cyclical industrials.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ISM Manufacturing 55.6 up from 53.3",
"New orders 56.7, production 58.5",
"Distance to 52w high 0.00%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "ISM reverses below 50 or IP contracts",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"reversal_case": "Slowing GDP could weaken industrial demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Industrial production Aug 18"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap tech leadership persists.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"5-day return 7.16%",
"Negative 21-day active return -2.53%",
"Volatility 26.51%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Rates spike or mega-cap earnings disappoint",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Overbought after sharp 5-day run, rate sensitivity.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical risk premium in oil supply.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent fell 5.3% to $79.36",
"Strong 21-day active return 7.48%",
"Iran-Oman Hormuz talks unresolved"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil breaks below $72",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil dropped 5.3% on the day; demand weak with refinery runs down.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz negotiations outcome"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration hedge if growth slows.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10yr yield 4.63%",
"Negative 21-day active return -3.32%",
"Low volatility 5.06%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Inflation reaccelerates pushing yields up",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation keeps yields high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand from geopolitical risk.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Negative 21-day active return -4.72%",
"Distance to 52w high -24.50%",
"Prior active rank 0.060"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar strengthens and real rates rise",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Weak trend and deep drawdown from high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz developments"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steepening curve aids banks.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Positive 21-day active return 0.43%",
"At 52w high",
"Low drawdown -2.08%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit stress emerges",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Base forecast does not clear SPY hurdle.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.25,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot July CPI (Aug 12) or PPI reaccelerates hawkish Fed expectations given 9-3 FOMC vote",
"Tech/growth pullback hits cybersecurity given elevated volatility",
"Weak Sept 4 payrolls signals sharper growth slowdown after Q2 GDP 1.5%"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI/PPI reaccelerates rate-hike odds and SPY drops below prior support",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Record close with broad breadth (79.7% positive assets over 5 days); solid ISM manufacturing and resilient consumer.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12, jobs report Aug 7, Sept 4 payrolls"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech risk-off; CIBR breaks below 21-day trend",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Strong prior active trend with recent pullback (positive pullback rank), robust quality score, secular demand independent of rate path.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Software/tech earnings continuing through August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "ISM reverses or industrial production contracts",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "ISM Manufacturing PMI jumped to 55.6 with new orders 56.7, production 58.5, supporting cyclical industrials.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July industrial production Aug 18"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"portfolio_rationale": "Core SP500 exposure combined with two above-benchmark tilts: cybersecurity for secular growth with favorable pullback quality, and industrials backed by the strong July ISM manufacturing beat.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Balanced tilt around record-high SPY, adding CYBERSECURITY and INDUSTRIALS which clear the SPY base hurdle on fundamental and quality evidence.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27787,
"latency_seconds": 97.77455295296386,
"output_tokens": 2551,
"total_tokens": 30338
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Anchor in SPY with modest tilts to areas combining prior relative strength with recent relative pullback (biotech, cybersecurity) and to low-drawdown value/financials that benefit from a steep curve and still-elevated inflation.
Diversified, near-benchmark portfolio with small alpha tilts; equity backdrop is supportive (records, ISM 55.6, high positive-asset breadth) but inflation is sticky and the Fed has hawkish dissenters, so risk budget is limited.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad breadth (65% positive 21-day), solid ISM, record highs.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 record close 7,736.52, up 1.8% on Aug 4",
"spy_return_21s 2.67%, volatility 14.29%",
"ISM Manufacturing 55.6, up from 53.3"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI or payrolls shock triggering >5% index drawdown",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation (core PCE 3.3% y/y), hawkish FOMC dissents, slowing GDP 1.5%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 payrolls, Aug 12 CPI, Sep 4 payrolls"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior trend with a deep recent pullback historically mean-reverts; Q2 pharma results catalysts.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-day active return +17.79% with 21-day active -8.22%",
"Highest quality evidence score 0.774",
"Volatility 31.11%, drawdown -10.51%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "XBI makes a new 63-day low or 30y yield exceeds 5.4%",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"reversal_case": "Rate backup and risk-off can hit unprofitable biotech hardest.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly Q2 Aug 5; August clinical/M&A news"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sustained relative strength with no drawdown from highs; secular IT security spend.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-day active +25.25%, 21-day active +2.75%",
"Distance to 52-week high 0.00%",
"Volatility 33.23% with drawdown -11.74%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "CIBR falls more than 8% below the Aug 4 close",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "Growth-multiple compression if inflation prints hot; crowded tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August enterprise software earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value leadership consistent with elevated inflation and steep curve.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"21-day active return +1.13%, prior active +3.70%",
"Volatility 11.84%, drawdown -2.40%, at 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD underperforms SPY by more than 3% intramonth",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "A dovish surprise would favor long-duration growth over value.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI, Aug 26 GDP revision"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve supports net interest margins; low volatility profile.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"21-day active +0.43%, drawdown only -2.08%",
"Curve steep: 1y 4.04% vs 30y 5.18%",
"At 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG falls more than 2% or regional bank credit event",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit deterioration with unemployment at 4.2% and slowing GDP.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 Treasury refunding; labor data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dominant AI capex trend and high quality score 0.736.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active +39.52%, 21-day active -7.40%",
"Volatility 56.20%, beta 2.35, drawdown -24.62%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 18,
"forecast_low_pct": -15,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH breaks 10% below entry",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility and crowding; already +8.71% in five days.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August semi earnings and AI capex updates"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Deep pullback could mean-revert if labor weakens.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"21-day active -5.36%, 30y yield 5.18%",
"Core PCE 3.3% y/y; FOMC had three hike dissents"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "30y yield exceeds 5.35%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation and heavy refunding supply keep long yields rising.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 refunding, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Gulf exports 16.1 mb/d vs 24 prewar keeps supply tight.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"21-day active +7.48% but Brent fell 5.3% to $79.36 on Aug 4",
"Iran-Oman Hormuz talks progressing but unresolved"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -9,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent settling below $70",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A Hormuz deal would deflate the geopolitical premium quickly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman negotiation outcome during August"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July CPI on Aug 12 surprises higher, pressuring long duration and equity multiples",
"Hormuz escalation spikes oil and hits risk assets",
"Momentum/tech unwind after a 4.1% five-day SPY surge",
"Weak Aug 7 or Sep 4 payrolls signal a growth downturn",
"Biotech and cybersecurity are high-volatility sleeves that can underperform sharply"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI above 4% year over year or payrolls contraction driving a >5% drawdown",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure at record highs with broad participation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July payrolls Aug 7, CPI Aug 12, August payrolls Sep 4"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Long-end yields rising above 5.4% or XBI breaking below its 63-day low",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative trend plus deep recent relative pullback; top quality evidence score.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 pharma results (Lilly Aug 5) and M&A/financing conditions"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech sector breaks below its 21-day range or software guidance disappoints",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Positive prior and recent active return with no drawdown from 52-week high; lower volatility than other tech sleeves.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August software/security earnings and enterprise IT spending updates"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rate cut repricing that reignites pure growth leadership",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Positive 21-day active return, low volatility, shallow drawdown, at 52-week high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12 and GDP second estimate Aug 26"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widening materially or regional bank stress",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Steep curve (30y 5.18% vs 1y 4.04%), positive active return, smallest drawdown among sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury refunding Aug 5; credit and labor data through Sep 4"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.69,
"portfolio_rationale": "Anchor in SPY with modest tilts to areas combining prior relative strength with recent relative pullback (biotech, cybersecurity) and to low-drawdown value/financials that benefit from a steep curve and still-elevated inflation.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Diversified, near-benchmark portfolio with small alpha tilts; equity backdrop is supportive (records, ISM 55.6, high positive-asset breadth) but inflation is sticky and the Fed has hawkish dissenters, so risk budget is limited.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27781,
"latency_seconds": 56.32987450808287,
"output_tokens": 3231,
"total_tokens": 31012
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio is positioned to capture growth in technology while hedging against geopolitical risks with energy and gold. This barbell approach balances momentum with defensive assets.
Overweight technology for growth, with energy and gold as geopolitical hedges.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued economic resilience and strong corporate earnings.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at a record high of 7,736.52.",
"Q2 GDP growth estimated at 1.5%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant miss in upcoming economic data.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A sudden macroeconomic shock or inflation resurgence.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and PPI data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Ongoing AI investments and strong earnings from mega-cap tech.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"High quality evidence score of 0.569.",
"Strong prior active rank of 0.925."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rise in interest rates or weak mega-cap earnings.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Valuation concerns or regulatory crackdowns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings reports and tech sector guidance."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply disruptions and strong global demand.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $79.36 per barrel.",
"Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden resolution to Middle East tensions or a sharp drop in oil demand.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Resolution of geopolitical conflicts or a global recession.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in Iran-Oman talks and Strait of Hormuz shipping."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued geopolitical risks and potential Fed rate cuts.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank of 0.851.",
"Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A strong US dollar rally or hawkish Fed surprises.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A strong US dollar and rising real yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Fed commentary and inflation data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Fed holds rates steady.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"One-year Treasury yield at 4.04%.",
"Low volatility rank of 1.000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden shift in Fed policy.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Unexpected rate cuts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Fed commentary."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steady earnings and defensive rotation.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score of 0.548.",
"Defensive characteristics in an uncertain market."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Major negative regulatory news.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Regulatory changes or drug pricing pressures.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly Q2 results."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Slowing economic growth and falling inflation.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Thirty-year Treasury yield at 5.18%.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.896."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant upside surprise in inflation.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Resurgent inflation and higher rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and PPI data."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.64,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Escalation of Middle East conflict disrupting oil supplies.",
"Higher-than-expected inflation delaying Fed rate cuts.",
"A sudden reversal in technology sector momentum."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rise in interest rates or weak mega-cap earnings.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Strong momentum and high quality evidence score support continued outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings reports and tech sector guidance."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden resolution to Middle East tensions or a sharp drop in oil demand.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tight supply support energy prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in Iran-Oman talks and Strait of Hormuz shipping."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "A strong US dollar rally or hawkish Fed surprises.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and potential rate cuts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Fed commentary and inflation data releases."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.14,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is positioned to capture growth in technology while hedging against geopolitical risks with energy and gold. This barbell approach balances momentum with defensive assets.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight technology for growth, with energy and gold as geopolitical hedges.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17054,
"latency_seconds": 18.82278300798498,
"output_tokens": 1814,
"reasoning_tokens": 713,
"total_tokens": 19581
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts to active options with base forecasts above SPY, emphasizing semiconductor-linked momentum and pullback evidence while capping technology-and-growth at 50%. Taiwan, biotech, and oil add separate economic exposures with plausible one-month catalysts.
SPY is at a record close with positive breadth, but selected active holdings show stronger supplied quality evidence or event sensitivity. The allocation seeks one-month alpha from risk-on continuation, semiconductor-linked rebound, biotech mean reversion, and energy geopolitical optionality.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record highs, positive 5-session and 21-session returns, and broad positive asset share support near-term continuation if macro releases remain benign.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at a record 7,736.52 on August 4, up 1.8% on the day.",
"SPY return was 4.11% over 5 sessions and 2.67% over 21 sessions.",
"SPY volatility_63s was 14.29% and max_drawdown_63s was -4.49%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if SPY loses recent record-high support and posts sustained negative active breadth into the scheduled macro releases.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Record-high entry, elevated inflation relative to target, and upcoming CPI, PPI, employment, and GDP revisions could trigger profit taking.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment, CPI, PPI, retail sales, Q2 GDP second estimate, July personal income and outlays, and August employment before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Very strong prior relative trend plus a deep recent pullback and fresh 5-session rebound support continuation if growth risk appetite persists.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.736, with prior active rank 0.970 and recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 39.52%, while active_return_21s was -7.40%.",
"Return_5s was 8.71%, volatility_63s was 56.20%, and max_drawdown_63s was -24.62%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 11,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if semiconductor relative strength fails and the option breaks materially below its recent drawdown area or risk-off rates pressure accelerates.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extremely high volatility, large drawdown, and sensitivity to rates could make the recent rebound a short-covering bounce that fails.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI, PPI, retail sales, Q2 GDP revision, and August employment data may support risk-on growth exposure if inflation and growth data are benign."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive 21-session active return, strong prior active trend, and a 52-week-high close support continuation if technology leadership broadens.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return was 25.25% and active_return_21s was 2.75%.",
"Return_5s was 9.70% and distance_52w_high was 0.00%.",
"Quality evidence included prior active rank 0.940, though recent pullback rank was only 0.090."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 7.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if the 52-week-high breakout reverses into negative active return versus SPY over the window.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "Limited pullback evidence and high 33.23% volatility leave the position vulnerable to a growth-stock reversal.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Monthly macro data and technology risk appetite before September 4; no single sector-specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Very strong prior trend, deep recent relative pullback, and renewed 5-session strength support a rebound if semiconductor-linked international equities remain bid.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.755, with prior active rank 0.985 and recent pullback rank 0.940.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 46.99%, while active_return_21s was -7.39%.",
"Return_5s was 8.79%, beta_spy_252s was 1.812, and distance_52w_high was -8.36%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if geopolitical risk or global electronics weakness drives Taiwan below its recent relative support and underperforms SPY sharply.",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"reversal_case": "High beta, elevated volatility, and geopolitical sensitivity could overwhelm the technical rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global risk appetite, July inflation data, and August employment data; semiconductor and electronics sentiment before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior active trend combined with the deepest recent pullback profile among finalists supports mean reversion if risk appetite improves.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.774, the highest in the supplied quality table.",
"Prior active rank was 0.910 and recent pullback rank was 0.970.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 17.79%, while active_return_21s was -8.22%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if biotech continues to lag after healthcare earnings and the recent active pullback deepens versus SPY.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"reversal_case": "Biotech remains volatile and may keep lagging if financing conditions or healthcare sentiment deteriorate.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly results on August 5 and broader healthcare/biotech risk appetite through CPI, PPI, and employment releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior active trend and unresolved Gulf shipping risk create upside if supply fears return during the month.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"USO prior 105-session active return was 29.92% and active_return_21s was 8.28%.",
"Associated Press reported Brent crude at $79.36 on August 4, down 5.3% on the day, after trading roughly $72 to $102 in July.",
"Strait of Hormuz shipping-route negotiations were unresolved and a cargo ship was reported damaged by an unknown projectile."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if negotiations are finalized without disruption and crude continues to fall below the recent range.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "The sharp August 4 crude decline and progress in talks could mark de-escalation and unwind the energy premium.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman shipping-route negotiations and Strait of Hormuz disruption headlines before September 4."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low volatility, shallow drawdown, positive active return, and record-high broad market conditions support steady participation.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return was 3.70% and active_return_21s was 1.13%.",
"Volatility_63s was 11.84% and max_drawdown_63s was -2.40%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.604 with shallow drawdown rank 0.821."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if value loses its positive 21-session active return and growth leadership accelerates.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Lower beta and value tilt may lag if high-growth leadership continues over the one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro releases on CPI, PPI, retail sales, GDP revision, and employment may favor value if rates remain firm and breadth improves."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Short bills offer stable low-volatility return if risk assets reverse around macro releases.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Treasury one-year par yield was 4.04% on August 4.",
"Return_5s was 0.07%, volatility_63s was 0.21%, and max_drawdown_63s was -0.01%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.575 with low volatility rank 1.000 and shallow drawdown rank 1.000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated as an alpha candidate if equities continue advancing and SPY maintains record-high momentum.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Expected one-month return is unlikely to exceed SPY or active equity candidates unless there is a material risk-off episode.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No upside catalyst beyond accrued short-rate carry and possible defensive flows around CPI, PPI, and employment data."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.05,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"High-beta technology and Taiwan exposures could underperform if CPI, PPI, or employment data revive rate concerns.",
"Semiconductors and Taiwan have large drawdowns and high volatility, so recent strength could reverse quickly.",
"Strait of Hormuz negotiations could de-escalate energy risk and pressure oil exposure.",
"A broad equity reversal from record S&P 500 levels would likely hurt most selected active holdings more than SPY."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 2.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if semiconductor relative strength fails and the option breaks materially below its recent drawdown area or risk-off rates pressure accelerates.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strongest supplied trend-plus-pullback setup among technology candidates, with very high prior active return and high quality evidence, despite high volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI, PPI, retail sales, Q2 GDP revision, and August employment data may support risk-on growth exposure if inflation and growth data are benign."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if the 52-week-high breakout reverses into negative active return versus SPY over the window.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Selected as a technology-and-growth holding with positive recent and prior active returns, at a 52-week high, but lower beta than the highest-volatility AI/semiconductor choices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Monthly macro data and technology risk appetite before September 4; no single sector-specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if geopolitical risk or global electronics weakness drives Taiwan below its recent relative support and underperforms SPY sharply.",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "International semiconductor-linked exposure with very high prior active rank and recent pullback rank, offering non-US participation in the same electronics cycle.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global risk appetite, July inflation data, and August employment data; semiconductor and electronics sentiment before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if biotech continues to lag after healthcare earnings and the recent active pullback deepens versus SPY.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "High quality evidence score and strong prior active return after a deep recent active pullback create a mean-reversion plus trend setup outside technology.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly results on August 5 and broader healthcare/biotech risk appetite through CPI, PPI, and employment releases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if negotiations are finalized without disruption and crude continues to fall below the recent range.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Small diversifying energy allocation tied to unresolved Strait of Hormuz risk and strong prior active return, balanced against the sharp one-day crude decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman shipping-route negotiations and Strait of Hormuz disruption headlines before September 4."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.15,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts to active options with base forecasts above SPY, emphasizing semiconductor-linked momentum and pullback evidence while capping technology-and-growth at 50%. Taiwan, biotech, and oil add separate economic exposures with plausible one-month catalysts.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is at a record close with positive breadth, but selected active holdings show stronger supplied quality evidence or event sensitivity. The allocation seeks one-month alpha from risk-on continuation, semiconductor-linked rebound, biotech mean reversion, and energy geopolitical optionality.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15531,
"latency_seconds": 45.06209381809458,
"output_tokens": 2850,
"reasoning_tokens": 218,
"total_tokens": 18381
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio favors four candidates whose base forecasts clear SPY, balancing supported technology momentum with biotech mean reversion, Japanese equities, and manufacturing-sensitive industrials. Cluster weights remain diversified and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 30%.
Cross-sectional quality and near-term macro catalysts favor selective active risk over SPY, but elevated rates and event risk warrant diversification rather than concentration in the highest-beta winners.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad participation, firm private domestic demand, and improving manufacturing can extend the record-high advance.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 4.11% over five sessions and 2.67% over 21 sessions.",
"The S&P 500 closed at a record on August 4.",
"Inflation remained elevated and three FOMC voters preferred a rate increase."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY loses its entry breakout while breadth and high-yield credit weaken materially.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A hot inflation print, hawkish repricing, or weak labor data could trigger profit-taking after the sharp five-session gain.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July and August employment reports, July CPI and PPI, retail sales, and the August 26 GDP revision."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive relative momentum and a fresh high can persist if growth-equity sentiment remains firm.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return was 25.25%.",
"Its 21-session active return was 2.75% and it stood at a 52-week high.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.511, tempered by 33.23% volatility."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 12.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -8.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A break from its entry-date high accompanied by materially negative active performance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "The 9.70% five-session rise may invite profit-taking, especially if yields rise.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI, PPI, retail sales, and late-August income and spending releases can sustain growth-equity risk appetite."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The strong prior trend can resume after the deep relative pullback if financing conditions stabilize.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was the universe high at 0.774.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 17.79%.",
"Recent 21-session active return was -8.22%, providing a deep pullback setup."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 13.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -9.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued underperformance versus SPY with a drawdown beyond the recent 10.51% 63-session maximum.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and weak recent relative performance may reflect a durable risk-off rotation rather than a temporary pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly results on August 5 and inflation and labor releases affecting financing-rate expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent absolute strength and the prior positive active trend can reassert after the relative pullback.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.681 with prior and pullback ranks of 0.791 and 0.776.",
"Japan gained 5.32% over five sessions.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 2.92%, though 21-session active return was -3.36%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 10.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -7.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A renewed sharp yen or global-risk shock that pushes Japan materially below its entry level and SPY.",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Its 23.69% volatility and sensitivity to yen moves can amplify a global risk reversal.",
"time_window_catalyst": "US inflation, labor, and trade releases may move the yen and global export-growth expectations before September 4."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Expansionary manufacturing readings and positive prior relative trend support a rebound from recent underperformance.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"July ISM Manufacturing rose to 55.6, with new orders at 56.7 and production at 58.5.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.646.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 2.74%, despite a -2.22% 21-session active return."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 8.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -6.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Manufacturing or labor releases signal contraction and industrials extend their 21-session relative underperformance.",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls, low capacity utilization, or fading orders could undermine the cyclical case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services, industrial production, Q2 GDP revision, and August employment data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Exceptional prior leadership and a deep pullback can produce a powerful rebound if technology risk appetite persists.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.736 and prior active return was 39.52%.",
"The 21-session active return was -7.40%, while the five-session return was 8.71%.",
"Volatility was 56.20% and the 63-session maximum drawdown was 24.62%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 18.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -15.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Semiconductors resume negative active performance and breach the recent drawdown trough.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility, high beta, and the sharp recent bounce create substantial whipsaw and profit-taking risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Inflation and employment releases that determine rate expectations and growth-stock valuation support."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low volatility and a deep pullback can support modest recovery if inflation cools and yields decline.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.623 with a 0.985 low-volatility rank.",
"Volatility was 3.13% and the 63-session drawdown was 2.15%.",
"Prior active return was -7.35% and 21-session active return was -4.08%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Treasury yields rise materially above entry levels after inflation releases.",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and hawkish policy risk can keep rates high and extend bond underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury refunding, CPI, PPI, and the August 26 personal income and outlays report."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Restricted Gulf exports and unresolved shipping security could restore the prior uptrend rapidly.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return was 29.92% and 21-session active return was 8.28%.",
"Oil fell 3.91% over five sessions and Brent dropped 5.3% on August 4.",
"Hormuz negotiations showed progress but remained unresolved, while volatility was 54.61%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 20,
"forecast_low_pct": -18,
"invalidation_condition": "A durable shipping agreement or continued crude decline despite unresolved supply constraints.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Further diplomatic progress and normalization of shipping could unwind the geopolitical premium.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in Iran-Oman shipping talks and any change in Strait of Hormuz disruptions."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.13,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot CPI or PPI could lift Treasury yields and compress equity valuations.",
"Weak employment or consumer data could reverse cyclical and risk-asset momentum.",
"Technology and biotech pullbacks may continue despite strong quality ranks.",
"Yen volatility or geopolitical stress could hurt Japanese equities.",
"Record US index levels increase broad-market reversal risk."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "A break from its entry-date high accompanied by materially negative active performance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Positive 21-session active return and strong prior active trend provide independent support for recent strength, while its volatility is below the most aggressive technology alternatives.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI, PPI, retail sales, and late-August income and spending releases can sustain growth-equity risk appetite."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued underperformance versus SPY with a drawdown beyond the recent 10.51% 63-session maximum.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "The highest quality score combines a strong prior trend with an unusually deep relative pullback, creating a favorable one-month rebound setup.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly results on August 5 and inflation and labor releases affecting financing-rate expectations."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "A renewed sharp yen or global-risk shock that pushes Japan materially below its entry level and SPY.",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "Strong prior trend, deep pullback rank, and recent absolute strength support a diversified rebound candidate outside US equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "US inflation, labor, and trade releases may move the yen and global export-growth expectations before September 4."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Manufacturing or labor releases signal contraction and industrials extend their 21-session relative underperformance.",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "Improving manufacturing data and a solid quality score support cyclical exposure with substantially less volatility than thematic technology.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services, industrial production, Q2 GDP revision, and August employment data."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.03,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors four candidates whose base forecasts clear SPY, balancing supported technology momentum with biotech mean reversion, Japanese equities, and manufacturing-sensitive industrials. Cluster weights remain diversified and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 30%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Cross-sectional quality and near-term macro catalysts favor selective active risk over SPY, but elevated rates and event risk warrant diversification rather than concentration in the highest-beta winners.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15533,
"latency_seconds": 33.38492050790228,
"output_tokens": 2182,
"reasoning_tokens": 0,
"total_tokens": 17715
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Mix of broad market, growth tilt, and international diversification with base forecasts exceeding SPY.
Selected holdings show base-case outperformance supported by recent relative strength and scheduled data releases within the window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record closes and positive asset share persist into September close.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at record 7736.52 up 1.8%",
"Q2 GDP 1.5% annualized"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7500 on sustained volume",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Inflation reacceleration or weak August jobs data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment and CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tech earnings and manufacturing expansion continue.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"TECHNOLOGY 5-day return 9.24%",
"ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.6"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Core PCE above 3.5% on August 12",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Rate-sensitive selloff on hotter CPI.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5 ISM Services and earnings from tech names"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Export strength and stable global growth outlook.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"JAPAN quality evidence score 0.681",
"5-day return 5.32%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Yen strengthens beyond 145 per dollar",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Yen carry trade unwind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global growth forecast stability from IMF"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation continues amid elevated inflation.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE 21-day active return +1.13%",
"Low volatility rank 0.761"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Broad equity rally broadens beyond value.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment situation follow-through"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply tightness persists.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude $79.36 down 5.3% on day",
"Gulf oil exports sharply lower"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil falls below $70",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Strait of Hormuz shipping routes normalize.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman talks outcome"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation on growth concerns.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"UTILITIES 21-day active return -5.30%",
"10-year yield 4.63%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.8%",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "Rates stabilize or decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 employment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI demand momentum holds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS quality evidence score 0.736",
"5-day return 8.71%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH drawdown exceeds 15%",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Supply chain or valuation compression.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech earnings season"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.43,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Elevated inflation readings could pressure growth stocks",
"Geopolitical developments in Strait of Hormuz",
"Weaker than expected Q2 GDP revision on August 26"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7500 on sustained volume",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad US equity exposure with record closes and stable macro backdrop.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment and CPI releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Core PCE above 3.5% on August 12",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative performance and ISM manufacturing strength support outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5 ISM Services and earnings from tech names"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yen strengthens beyond 145 per dollar",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "High quality evidence score and positive 5-day return versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global growth forecast stability from IMF"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Positive 21-day active return and lower volatility profile.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment situation follow-through"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.93,
"portfolio_rationale": "Mix of broad market, growth tilt, and international diversification with base forecasts exceeding SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings show base-case outperformance supported by recent relative strength and scheduled data releases within the window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15744,
"latency_seconds": 23.748288895003498,
"output_tokens": 1561,
"reasoning_tokens": 899,
"total_tokens": 18204
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio overweight software and cybersecurity for momentum continuation plus energy for geopolitical asymmetry, capped under 50% tech cluster, with SPY core. All active bases exceed SPY base of 1.3.
Selected higher-base active options in tech and energy clusters while respecting 50% cluster cap and using SPY as ballast. Forecasts prioritize one-month catalysts from briefing data releases and Hormuz status.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record close and broad participation extend into scheduled data if growth holds",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at record 7736.52 up 1.8% on August 4",
"spy_return_5s 4.11% and spy_return_21s 2.67%",
"positive_asset_share_5s 79.71%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Close below August 4 level on consecutive weak data prints",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation prints or hawkish FOMC reaction reverse recent gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment, CPI, and Q2 GDP revision releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent absolute outperformance continues if growth sentiment persists through earnings and data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s 11.14% and active_return_21s +4.94%",
"SOFTWARE quality evidence score 0.298 with deep pullback rank",
"distance_52w_high -13.39%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 7.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent 5-session gains on rising rates or weak software guidance",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High volatility_63s 34.39% and max_drawdown allow sharp mean-reversion on rates up",
"time_window_catalyst": "August earnings and tech sentiment into July CPI and employment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "At 52-week high with strong prior trend supports further relative strength",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s 9.70% and active_return_21s +2.75%",
"distance_52w_high 0.00%",
"prior active rank 0.940 in quality table"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Reversal of 5s strength with volume spike lower on risk-off",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "Factor rotation out of high-beta tech on stronger dollar or risk-off",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued defensive tech bid around geopolitical and data releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium rebuilds if Hormuz remains unresolved",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +7.48%",
"Brent at $79.36 down 5.3% on day after July $72-102 range",
"IEA noted Gulf exports still well below prewar average"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained Brent decline below recent lows with resolved shipping routes",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Talks progress and lower oil prices pressure sector",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman talks outcome and any Strait shipping disruption news"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Extreme prior active strength and quality score could reassert",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s 8.71% but active_return_21s -7.40%",
"volatility_63s 56.20% and max_drawdown_63s -24.62%",
"quality evidence score 0.736 highest among many"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Further underperformance vs SPY on rising vol",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Already deep relative pullback and high beta amplify downside on any growth scare",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond broad tech data sensitivity"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent strength and pullback rank support catch-up",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s 5.32% and quality score 0.681",
"prior_105s_active_return +2.92%",
"IMF euro-area and advanced growth forecasts modest"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break of 5s gains on stronger USD or weak exports",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Yen moves or global trade weakness reverse gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "None specific inside window beyond global data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive relative strength continues if inflation data mixed",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +1.13% and at 52w high",
"low volatility rank 0.761 and shallow drawdown",
"quality evidence score 0.604"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Underperformance vs SPY on strong growth prints",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth reacceleration favors momentum over value",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI and employment data that could favor value rotation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid if Hormuz escalates or data weakens",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s +1.31% but active_return_21s -4.72%",
"distance_52w_high -24.50%",
"Treasury yields elevated with 10y at 4.63%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "New lows on rising yields and risk-on equity",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Higher real yields and strong equity risk appetite pressure gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical headlines and real-rate moves around data"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.81,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sticky inflation and FOMC hawkish dissent could reverse growth/tech leadership",
"Resolution of Strait of Hormuz talks could pressure energy",
"High volatility in selected tech names amplifies drawdown risk into September employment",
"Broad market concentration at records leaves limited cushion if data disappoints"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent 5-session gains on rising rates or weak software guidance",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent absolute performance and positive active return support higher base case than SPY amid growth leadership persistence into data releases.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August earnings and tech sentiment into July CPI and employment data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Reversal of 5s strength with volume spike lower on risk-off",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Positive active return and at 52w high with quality score support outperformance vs broad market over one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued defensive tech bid around geopolitical and data releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained Brent decline below recent lows with resolved shipping routes",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong 21s active return and oil volatility create asymmetric upside if Hormuz risks reprice before exit.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman talks outcome and any Strait shipping disruption news"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Close below August 4 level on consecutive weak data prints",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark core holding given record close and broad positive asset share; anchors portfolio while active sleeves seek alpha.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment, CPI, and Q2 GDP revision releases"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.11,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio overweight software and cybersecurity for momentum continuation plus energy for geopolitical asymmetry, capped under 50% tech cluster, with SPY core. All active bases exceed SPY base of 1.3.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected higher-base active options in tech and energy clusters while respecting 50% cluster cap and using SPY as ballast. Forecasts prioritize one-month catalysts from briefing data releases and Hormuz status.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16595,
"latency_seconds": 49.315711272880435,
"output_tokens": 2432,
"reasoning_tokens": 499,
"total_tokens": 19526
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Semiconductors (SMH)25%Taiwan Equities (EWT)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Cybersecurity (CIBR)25%Industrials Sector (XLI)25% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Biotechnology (XBI)20%Cybersecurity (CIBR)15%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15%Financials Sector (XLF)10% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Technology Sector (XLK)40%Energy Sector (XLE)30%Gold (IAU)30% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)15%Taiwan Equities (EWT)25%Biotechnology (XBI)15%Crude Oil (USO)10% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Cybersecurity (CIBR)30%Biotechnology (XBI)25%Japan Equities (EWJ)25%Industrials Sector (XLI)20% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Technology Sector (XLK)30%Japan Equities (EWJ)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)10% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Software (IGV)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)15%Energy Sector (XLE)20%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-08-04 | 250.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-08-04 | 93.29 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-08-04 | 27.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-08-04 | 30.12 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-08-04 | 124.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-08-04 | 151.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-08-04 | 36.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-08-04 | 36.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-08-04 | 63.13 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-08-04 | 16.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-08-04 | 60.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-08-04 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-08-04 | 56.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-08-04 | 112.04 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-08-04 | 118.29 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-08-04 | 85.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-08-04 | 40.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-08-04 | 115.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-08-04 | 97.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-08-04 | 72.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-08-04 | 95.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-08-04 | 60.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-08-04 | 58.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-08-04 | 220.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-08-04 | 14.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-08-04 | 106.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-08-04 | 91.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-08-04 | 57.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-08-04 | 76.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-08-04 | 162.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-08-04 | 79.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-08-04 | 50.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-08-04 | 186.40 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-08-04 | 93.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-08-04 | 47.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-08-04 | 106.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-08-04 | 94.61 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-08-04 | 58.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-08-04 | 82.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-08-04 | 52.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-08-04 | 107.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-08-04 | 77.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-08-04 | 105.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-08-04 | 723.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-08-04 | 45.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-08-04 | 77.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-08-04 | 771.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-08-04 | 575.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-08-04 | 91.42 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-08-04 | 53.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-08-04 | 102.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-08-04 | 53.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-08-04 | 65.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-08-04 | 171.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-08-04 | 102.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-08-04 | 186.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-08-04 | 380.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-08-04 | 107.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-08-04 | 48.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-08-04 | 97.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-08-04 | 33.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-08-04 | 28.16 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-08-04 | 124.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-08-04 | 256.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-08-04 | 76.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-08-04 | 77.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-08-04 | 313.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-08-04 | 301.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-08-04 | 226.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-08-04 | 44.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 8867d2beab94...3efd25bc |
| manifest.yaml | fc00696229a6...340b6a11 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 073a73508e18...c595bc88 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | d629d140f8fb...f5041a17 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 401e99955ca2...59f53af5 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | e61d4585419c...207cab50 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | f43fcf423201...9b7a9970 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 18e36c777c25...2d7ac764 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |