Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 68.3 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +38.12% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +59.38%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +29.69%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-31 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-monthly-20260731-clean
33,442 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-31-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-31
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-02T22:43:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-03T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-31
- Exit date: 2026-08-31
- Entry rule: Use the Friday, July 31, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Monday, August 31, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-02T22:43:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Friday, July 31, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 31, the S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, up 0.7%; the Dow closed at 52,485.03, up 0.5%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,373.85, up 1.0%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,931.34, down 0.5%.
- For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow each gained 1.0%, the Nasdaq gained 1.6%, and the Russell 2000 was nearly unchanged. The S&P 500 finished July with a small loss.
- Through July 31, the S&P 500 was up 9.4% in 2026, the Dow 9.2%, the Nasdaq 9.2%, and the Russell 2000 18.1%.
- Amazon rose 15.3%, while Apple fell 7.4% and Micron Technology fell 5.9%.
## Rates, Growth, Inflation, and Labor
- The FOMC voted 9-3 on July 29 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. It described activity as solid, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated.
- The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.71% late July 31 from 4.68% late July 30 and 3.97% before the Middle East war.
- Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%, the PCE price index 5.1%, and core PCE 3.4%, all at annual rates.
- In June, personal income rose 0.2%, nominal PCE 0.3%, real PCE 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% over twelve months; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%, respectively.
- Second-quarter civilian compensation costs rose 0.9%. Over twelve months, compensation rose 3.4%, wages and salaries 3.2%, and benefits 3.8%; inflation-adjusted private-industry wages and salaries fell 0.4%.
- Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 for the week ended July 25, up 9,000. Insured unemployment was 1.782 million and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
## Companies, Energy, and International Context
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%, cloud revenue up 27%, and Azure growth of 43%; More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%. Meta reported revenue up 28%, costs and expenses up 55%, operating income down 8%, and net income down 14%.
- Apple reported quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%, gross margin of 50.1%, and diluted EPS of $2.02, up 29%. Tariff refunds added approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to EPS.
- Amazon reported quarterly net sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%, operating income of $27.5 billion, and AWS sales growth of 37%. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was a $7.6 billion outflow after property and equipment purchases increased by $66.1 billion.
- Amazon forecast third-quarter sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- Brent crude rose 1.2% on July 31 to $87.93 per barrel. June global oil supply was estimated at 98.8 million barrels per day, 9.4 million below its pre-war level, while Gulf exports were 16.1 million barrels per day versus 24 million before the war.
- On August 2, the United States said it would hold off on new Iran strikes and claimed parameters for an agreement including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said no current reopening discussion was taking place. No agreement had been reached, and markets had not reopened after these statements.
- Seven OPEC+ countries decided August 2 to implement a 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment in September. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee highlighted risks to energy infrastructure and maritime routes.
- The Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to keep its overnight call-rate target around 1.0%; one member proposed 1.25%. The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged July 23.
- Euro-area July flash inflation was 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June; energy inflation was 10.0%, and inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco was 2.5%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
- South Korea's Kospi rose 17.9% on July 31 but remained down 22% for July.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 31 Close
- August 3-7: June construction spending, international trade, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, manufacturers' orders, wholesale trade, preliminary second-quarter productivity, July Employment Situation, June consumer credit, and AMD and Eli Lilly results.
- August 12-14: July U.S. CPI, PPI, business formations, and retail sales.
- August 18-19: July U.S. industrial production and housing starts; final July euro-area inflation; Federal Reserve minutes for the July 28-29 meeting.
- August 25-27: July new-home sales; second estimate of second-quarter GDP; July Personal Income and Outlays; July durable-goods orders; Nvidia results; and advance economic indicators.
- August 31: monthly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, geopolitical claims remain unresolved, estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-31-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-31'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-03T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-02T22:43:13.196312+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Friday, July 31, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Monday, August 31, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-31'
exit_date: '2026-08-31'
created_at: '2026-08-02T22:43:13.196312+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-02T22:43:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Friday, July 31, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 31, the S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, up 0.7%; the Dow closed at 52,485.03, up 0.5%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,373.85, up 1.0%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,931.34, down 0.5%.
- For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow each gained 1.0%, the Nasdaq gained 1.6%, and the Russell 2000 was nearly unchanged. The S&P 500 finished July with a small loss.
- Through July 31, the S&P 500 was up 9.4% in 2026, the Dow 9.2%, the Nasdaq 9.2%, and the Russell 2000 18.1%.
- Amazon rose 15.3%, while Apple fell 7.4% and Micron Technology fell 5.9%.
## Rates, Growth, Inflation, and Labor
- The FOMC voted 9-3 on July 29 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. It described activity as solid, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated.
- The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.71% late July 31 from 4.68% late July 30 and 3.97% before the Middle East war.
- Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%, the PCE price index 5.1%, and core PCE 3.4%, all at annual rates.
- In June, personal income rose 0.2%, nominal PCE 0.3%, real PCE 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% over twelve months; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%, respectively.
- Second-quarter civilian compensation costs rose 0.9%. Over twelve months, compensation rose 3.4%, wages and salaries 3.2%, and benefits 3.8%; inflation-adjusted private-industry wages and salaries fell 0.4%.
- Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 for the week ended July 25, up 9,000. Insured unemployment was 1.782 million and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
## Companies, Energy, and International Context
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%, cloud revenue up 27%, and Azure growth of 43%; More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%. Meta reported revenue up 28%, costs and expenses up 55%, operating income down 8%, and net income down 14%.
- Apple reported quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%, gross margin of 50.1%, and diluted EPS of $2.02, up 29%. Tariff refunds added approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to EPS.
- Amazon reported quarterly net sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%, operating income of $27.5 billion, and AWS sales growth of 37%. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was a $7.6 billion outflow after property and equipment purchases increased by $66.1 billion.
- Amazon forecast third-quarter sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- Brent crude rose 1.2% on July 31 to $87.93 per barrel. June global oil supply was estimated at 98.8 million barrels per day, 9.4 million below its pre-war level, while Gulf exports were 16.1 million barrels per day versus 24 million before the war.
- On August 2, the United States said it would hold off on new Iran strikes and claimed parameters for an agreement including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said no current reopening discussion was taking place. No agreement had been reached, and markets had not reopened after these statements.
- Seven OPEC+ countries decided August 2 to implement a 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment in September. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee highlighted risks to energy infrastructure and maritime routes.
- The Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to keep its overnight call-rate target around 1.0%; one member proposed 1.25%. The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged July 23.
- Euro-area July flash inflation was 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June; energy inflation was 10.0%, and inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco was 2.5%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
- South Korea's Kospi rose 17.9% on July 31 but remained down 22% for July.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 31 Close
- August 3-7: June construction spending, international trade, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, manufacturers' orders, wholesale trade, preliminary second-quarter productivity, July Employment Situation, June consumer credit, and AMD and Eli Lilly results.
- August 12-14: July U.S. CPI, PPI, business formations, and retail sales.
- August 18-19: July U.S. industrial production and housing starts; final July euro-area inflation; Federal Reserve minutes for the July 28-29 meeting.
- August 25-27: July new-home sales; second estimate of second-quarter GDP; July Personal Income and Outlays; July durable-goods orders; Nvidia results; and advance economic indicators.
- August 31: monthly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, geopolitical claims remain unresolved, estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "85307f7a3f1bddb08d630570071801b79f2f072fef34b30502812fb3efcfa9b6",
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"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Tilt toward value, dividends, equal-weight and energy: sticky inflation (core PCE 3.4% annualized in Q2), 4.71% 10y yields, and an unresolved Hormuz supply shock favor value/energy over duration-heavy growth, while a 25% SPY core limits tracking error.
Overweight energy on constrained oil supply and negative equity correlation; overweight value/dividend/equal-weight on breadth rotation and rate pressure on growth; SPY core for balance.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid earnings and resilient consumer support a modest grind higher",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 +9.4% YTD but small July loss",
"FOMC held rates 9-3 with hawkish dissents; core PCE 3.4% annualized Q2",
"Strong mega-cap earnings (MSFT, AMZN, AAPL beats)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield sustained above 4.9%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hot CPI, rising yields, or oil shock escalation drives a correction",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12, Fed minutes Aug 19, Nvidia Aug 25-27"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sticky inflation and elevated yields sustain the value rotation",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+3.09% 21d active return, only -0.09% from 52w high",
"Vol 11.74% vs SPY 13.64%; drawdown just -2.40%",
"10y yield at 4.71% pressures long-duration growth"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp yield decline triggering growth outperformance",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Yields fall and growth/AI trade reasserts leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI/PPI Aug 12-14"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive income demand persists amid macro uncertainty",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+4.92% 21d active return, beta 0.25",
"Drawdown only -2.95%, low vol 11.83%",
"FOMC flagged elevated outlook uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad tech-led rally with SPY up >4%",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Strong risk-on rally leaves low-beta dividend stocks lagging",
"time_window_catalyst": "Fed minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent supply deficit and unresolved Hormuz closure keep oil and energy earnings elevated",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $87.93; global supply 9.4 mbd below pre-war, Gulf exports 16.1 vs 24 mbd",
"XLE +12.59% 21d active return",
"Iran says no reopening discussion despite US claims; no agreement reached"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed Hormuz reopening agreement",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Diplomatic breakthrough reopens Hormuz, oil drops sharply (already -5.5% USO 5d)",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran negotiations and OPEC+ September production adjustment"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rotation from mega-cap concentration into broader market continues",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP-SPY 21d spread +0.58%; drawdown only -2.04%",
"Lowest equity vol at 10.86%",
"Breadth broadening as Apple, Micron fell while index rose"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained mega-cap tech outperformance vs equal weight",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Nvidia blowout restores narrow mega-cap leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 25-27"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Nvidia beat could snap back the pullback sharply",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-13.05% 21d active return after +40.58% prior trend",
"Vol 55.17%, drawdown -24.62%, Micron -5.9%",
"Nvidia results Aug 25-27"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -10,
"invalidation_condition": "Further breakdown below recent lows before Nvidia",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Post-run distribution continues; volume z-score +0.93 suggests active selling",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 25-27"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could rally duration",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10y yield rose to 4.71% from 3.97% pre-war",
"Q2 core PCE 3.4% annualized; three FOMC members preferred a hike",
"TLT -3.82% over 21d"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Soft CPI and payroll miss driving yields below 4.4%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation plus oil shock keeps yields elevated or rising",
"time_window_catalyst": "Jobs report and CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical escalation could revive safe-haven bid",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105d active return -33.24%, -25% from 52w high",
"Flat 21d active return despite dollar weakness",
"Elevated real yields headwind"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Renewed Middle East escalation spike",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "High real rates and no fresh escalation keep gold rangebound-weak",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran situation developments"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.49,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden Iran agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz could sharply reverse energy gains",
"Cooler-than-expected August CPI could reignite growth/tech leadership and hurt the value tilt",
"Weak July payrolls could pressure cyclicals and financial-heavy value indexes",
"Nvidia results late August could restore narrow mega-cap dominance vs equal-weight"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI print pushes 10y yield well above 4.9%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark core exposure; solid Q2 mega-cap earnings anchor the index.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July jobs report, CPI Aug 12, Nvidia results Aug 25-27"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp fall in yields reignites growth leadership",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value outperformed with +3.09% 21d active return, near 52w high, lower vol, and 4.71% 10y yields favor value over duration-sensitive growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI and PPI Aug 12-14; sticky inflation supports value rotation"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong risk-on tech rally resumes broadly",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "+4.92% 21d active return, low beta 0.25, shallow drawdown; defensive income exposure in elevated-uncertainty regime flagged by FOMC.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Fed minutes Aug 19; continued rotation to income amid elevated rates"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed Strait of Hormuz reopening agreement and Gulf export normalization",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent at $87.93 with global supply 9.4 mbd below pre-war, Hormuz still closed, and XLE 12.59% 21d active gain; negative SPY correlation adds hedge value.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Iran/Hormuz situation and OPEC+ September adjustment decision Aug 2"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Renewed narrow mega-cap leadership after Nvidia results",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Positive 21d active return (+0.58%), lowest large-cap drawdown, broadening breadth as mega-cap tech pulled back.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Breadth continuation through August data prints"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.29,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward value, dividends, equal-weight and energy: sticky inflation (core PCE 3.4% annualized in Q2), 4.71% 10y yields, and an unresolved Hormuz supply shock favor value/energy over duration-heavy growth, while a 25% SPY core limits tracking error.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight energy on constrained oil supply and negative equity correlation; overweight value/dividend/equal-weight on breadth rotation and rate pressure on growth; SPY core for balance.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27832,
"latency_seconds": 41.063072030898184,
"output_tokens": 3774,
"total_tokens": 31606
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward value, financials, and dividends which show positive recent active returns, low volatility, and shallow drawdowns while high-beta tech has pulled back sharply amid elevated rates.
Defensive-cyclical quality tilt with financials and value leadership, anchored by SP500 core, aiming for modest alpha in an elevated-rate, uncertain macro backdrop.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market resilience with mega-cap earnings strength",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 up 9.4% in 2026, closed 7489.72",
"spy_return_21s 0.17%, low drawdown -4.49%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below key support on rate spike",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated rates at 4.71% and slowing GDP 1.5% pressure valuations",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12-14, Nvidia Aug 25-27"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve and elevated rates support net interest margins",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s 3.77%, shallow drawdown -2.42%",
"low volatility 13.66%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Yield curve inversion or spread widening",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit deterioration or recession fears",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI and Fed minutes mid-August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation persists amid rate-sensitive growth pullback",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s 3.09%, drawdown only -2.40%",
"return_5s 1.44%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Value/growth ratio breaks down",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth/tech rebound reverses value leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales and CPI mid-August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive quality bid in uncertain macro",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s 4.92%, low beta 0.254",
"drawdown -2.95%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rate rise above 5%",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rate spike hurts dividend equities",
"time_window_catalyst": "Income and inflation data late August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI-driven mega-cap earnings momentum",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s -5.30%, drawdown -11.22%",
"high volatility 25.51%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -9,
"invalidation_condition": "Further rate rise pressures growth multiples",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Rate sensitivity and recent sharp pullback",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 25-27"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil supply disruption from Middle East war",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s 12.59% but return_5s -0.12%",
"high volatility 24.22%, drawdown -13.21%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Strait of Hormuz reopening",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Iran deal reopening Hormuz collapses prices",
"time_window_catalyst": "OPEC+ September adjustment, Iran talks"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand if growth slows",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s -1.32%, low volatility 5.00%",
"rates elevated at 4.71%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Inflation surprise pushing yields higher",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation keeps rates elevated",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI and Fed minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven amid geopolitical risk",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"prior_105s_active_return -33.24%, drawdown -16.01%",
"return_5s -0.08%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar strength or rate spike",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Weak momentum and elevated real rates",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical developments"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.315,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rate volatility around CPI and Fed minutes could hit rate-sensitive value/dividend names",
"Mega-cap tech rebound could cause SP500 to outperform value tilt",
"Geopolitical oil shock disrupting broad risk sentiment"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-off or credit-spread widening",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong positive active return, shallow drawdown, low volatility, benefits from steep curve and elevated rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12-14 and Fed minutes Aug 18-19"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Value underperformance vs growth rebound",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Positive active return, shallow drawdown, low beta defensiveness with cyclical tilt amid elevated rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI and retail sales mid-August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Rate shock hurting dividend equities",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Strong 21-day active return, low volatility, shallow drawdown; defensive quality tilt.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August inflation and income data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity selloff",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core broad exposure anchor.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 25-27, CPI mid-month"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.115,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward value, financials, and dividends which show positive recent active returns, low volatility, and shallow drawdowns while high-beta tech has pulled back sharply amid elevated rates.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive-cyclical quality tilt with financials and value leadership, anchored by SP500 core, aiming for modest alpha in an elevated-rate, uncertain macro backdrop.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27838,
"latency_seconds": 34.316640618024394,
"output_tokens": 2520,
"total_tokens": 30358
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Barbell of quality-value, financials, and defensive healthcare against a large SPY core, avoiding the crowded, high-volatility semiconductor/Korea/Taiwan momentum complex that already shows sharp recent relative drawdowns.
Modest positive SPY base case with sticky inflation and a hawkish-leaning Fed; tilt toward lower-volatility, near-highs relative winners with independent macro support rather than extended high-beta tech.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong mega-cap earnings (Amazon +20% sales, Azure +43%) and solid final private demand at 3.9%.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,489.72 up 9.4% YTD; small July loss",
"FOMC held 3.50-3.75% with three hikers dissenting",
"Core PCE 3.3% y/y, ten-year at 4.71%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year above 5.0% or a hot CPI print triggering repricing to a hike",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, hawkish dissents, rising long yields, and slowing payrolls (57k) risk a drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 payrolls, Aug 12-14 CPI/PPI, Aug 25-27 Nvidia and PCE"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve and solid activity support bank earnings; low drawdown suggests durable leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF active return 21s +3.77%, drawdown only -2.42%",
"Volatility 13.7%, near 52-week high (-1.15%)",
"Policy rate 3.50-3.75% with ten-year 4.71%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Curve flattens sharply or XLF lags SPY by more than 3%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak labor data or credit deterioration would hit banks; prior 105s active return negative.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and Fed minutes Aug 18-19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent value leadership with low volatility as growth multiples face rate pressure.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWD active 21s +3.09%, prior 105s +3.48%",
"Volatility 11.7%, max drawdown -2.40%",
"Essentially at 52-week high (-0.09%)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD active return versus SPY falls below -2%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "An AI-led rally would leave low-beta value behind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and PCE data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive low-beta ballast improving on a relative basis with modest drawdown.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active 21s +1.72%, drawdown only -3.74%",
"Beta to SPY 0.29, low correlation 0.24",
"Eli Lilly results scheduled Aug 3-7"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls more than 4% or adverse drug-pricing policy news",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Sector has negative prior 105s active return; policy or pricing headlines can hit quickly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly results Aug 3-7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable ECB policy, contained core inflation, and a softer dollar boost USD-denominated returns.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"VGK active 21s +3.04%, 5s +2.47%, drawdown -3.86%",
"ECB kept rates unchanged July 23; core inflation 2.5%",
"Dollar index proxy UUP -1.12% over 21s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rallies over 2% or euro-area inflation exceeds 3.3%",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Energy inflation at 10% and prior 105s active -6.82% show structural lag.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Final euro-area July inflation Aug 18-19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior 105s active +40.6% and Nvidia results could reignite the trend.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH active 21s -13.05%, 5s -3.68%",
"Volatility 55.2%, drawdown -24.6%, 19.2% below 52w high",
"Micron fell 5.9%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 14,
"forecast_low_pct": -14,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH breaks below its 63-day drawdown low",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Sharp recent relative breakdown with extreme volatility signals a momentum unwind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 25-27, AMD Aug 3-7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply still 9.4 mbd below pre-war levels with infrastructure risk.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO -5.50% over 5s after +24.91% active 21s",
"Brent $87.93; US signaled holding off on Iran strikes",
"OPEC+ adds 188k bpd in September"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 16,
"forecast_low_pct": -16,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed Strait of Hormuz reopening agreement",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Any Hormuz reopening deal plus OPEC+ supply increase could crush prices quickly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran negotiation headlines during August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could spark a duration rally.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT -3.82% over 21s; ten-year rose to 4.71%",
"Core PCE 3.3% y/y with three FOMC hike dissents"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year yield falls below 4.40%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and hawkish dissents keep upward yield pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12-14 and Fed minutes Aug 18-19"
}
],
"confidence": 0.53,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.42,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sticky core inflation (3.3-3.4%) pushes yields above 5% and compresses equity multiples",
"Mega-cap AI capex enthusiasm resumes and SPY outruns the value/defensive tilt",
"Middle East oil disruption reverses or worsens, whipsawing sector leadership",
"Weak August payrolls signal a growth scare hitting financials and cyclicals",
"Currency swings erode Europe's USD-denominated return"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year yield breaks above 5.0% or August payrolls contract",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure amid solid mega-cap earnings but elevated inflation and hawkish FOMC dissents.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12-14, Employment Situation Aug 7, Nvidia results Aug 25-27"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit stress or sharp curve flattening; XLF underperforms SPY by more than 3%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive relative trend, low drawdown, steep curve with 3.50-3.75% policy rate and 4.71% ten-year supports net interest margins.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and Fed minutes Aug 18-19"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth-led melt-up pushes value's active return below -2%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative return, low volatility 11.7%, shallow 2.4% drawdown, near 52-week high with defensive/cyclical value mix.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and PCE releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Adverse policy headlines or XLV drops more than 4%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with positive active return, small drawdown, low beta hedge against inflation-driven equity drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly results Aug 3-7"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rebounds sharply or euro-area inflation re-accelerates above 3.3%",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Positive active return, near 52-week high, ECB on hold with contained core inflation at 2.5%; weaker dollar aids USD returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Final euro-area July inflation Aug 18-19"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.22,
"portfolio_rationale": "Barbell of quality-value, financials, and defensive healthcare against a large SPY core, avoiding the crowded, high-volatility semiconductor/Korea/Taiwan momentum complex that already shows sharp recent relative drawdowns.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Modest positive SPY base case with sticky inflation and a hawkish-leaning Fed; tilt toward lower-volatility, near-highs relative winners with independent macro support rather than extended high-beta tech.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27832,
"latency_seconds": 47.602307060034946,
"output_tokens": 3470,
"total_tokens": 31302
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
A balanced portfolio combining broad market exposure with a tilt towards value and defensive sectors. This approach aims to capture upside while mitigating downside risk in an uncertain macro environment.
Balanced approach with value and defensive tilts.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued economic growth and solid corporate earnings.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, up 0.7% on July 31."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant negative macro surprises.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Inflation re-accelerates or economic data weakens significantly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August economic data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Investors continue to favor lower valuation multiples.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE had a 1.44% return over the last 5 days."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth stocks resume strong outperformance.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth stocks regain momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued rotation into value sectors."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive characteristics attract flows in an uncertain market.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE had a -0.01% return over the last 5 days."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Regulatory changes or broad market rally favoring high beta.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Strong economic growth favors cyclical sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports and defensive flows."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tech earnings continue to surprise to the upside.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,373.85, up 1.0% on July 31."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant miss in mega-cap tech earnings.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Higher interest rates pressure valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech earnings reports."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yields fall due to weaker economic data.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.71% late July 31."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Inflation prints significantly above expectations.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Inflation remains sticky, keeping yields high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Inflation data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand increases due to geopolitical risks.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD had a -0.08% return over the last 5 days."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant de-escalation of geopolitical tensions.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Strong dollar and higher real rates pressure gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical developments."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.1,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Unexpected inflation spikes leading to tighter monetary policy.",
"Geopolitical tensions escalating, particularly in the Middle East.",
"A broader economic slowdown impacting corporate earnings."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant negative macro surprises.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core holding for broad market exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August economic data releases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth stocks resume strong outperformance.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value tilt given recent outperformance and lower volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued rotation into value sectors."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Regulatory changes or broad market rally favoring high beta.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with solid fundamentals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports and defensive flows."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"portfolio_rationale": "A balanced portfolio combining broad market exposure with a tilt towards value and defensive sectors. This approach aims to capture upside while mitigating downside risk in an uncertain macro environment.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Balanced approach with value and defensive tilts.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17027,
"latency_seconds": 14.19164469698444,
"output_tokens": 1548,
"total_tokens": 18575
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio avoids a single concentrated bet and selects only active holdings with base forecasts above SPY. It balances value equity, cybersecurity growth, geopolitical oil optionality, and Europe while keeping every non-benchmark cluster at or below 25%.
SPY has a positive but modest base case after a flat July and elevated inflation/rate uncertainty. The selected basket targets stronger one-month catalysts from value breadth, tech earnings, energy disruption, and international catch-up.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid activity, positive year-to-date equity trend, and upcoming macro data could maintain broad risk appetite.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed July 31 up 0.7% on the day and was up 9.4% year to date.",
"SPY 21-session return was 0.17%, with a 63-session volatility of 13.64% and max drawdown of -4.49%.",
"FOMC held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% while describing inflation as elevated and outlook uncertainty as elevated."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if SPY breaks decisively below recent 63-session drawdown levels while rates and inflation expectations rise.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, higher Treasury yields, weak payroll revisions, or disappointing mega-cap earnings could trigger a one-month pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data, CPI/PPI, retail sales, Fed minutes, second GDP estimate, PCE, durable goods, and Nvidia results before August 31."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Lower volatility, shallow drawdown, and recent relative leadership support continued rotation into value if growth remains solid.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Large value had a 21-session active return of 3.09% and prior 105-session active return of 3.48%.",
"Its 63-session volatility was 11.74%, lower than SPY's 13.64%, and max drawdown was -2.40%.",
"Distance from 52-week high was only -0.09%, with quality evidence score of 0.616."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if value gives back its recent 21-day active leadership and breaks materially below its 52-week-high proximity while SPY breadth narrows.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "A renewed mega-cap growth rally or recession scare could reverse value leadership and favor SPY concentration.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI, retail sales, GDP revision, and personal income/outlays may support value/cyclical breadth if growth remains solid and rates stabilize."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend and cloud-spending signals can support cybersecurity if tech earnings remain constructive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Cybersecurity had a 23.30% prior 105-session active return and 0.62% 21-session active return.",
"It was only -3.06% from its 52-week high, with a quality evidence score of 0.610.",
"Microsoft reported revenue up 18%, cloud revenue up 27%, and Azure growth of 43%, providing a cloud-spending read-through."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 7.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if tech earnings read-throughs disappoint or cybersecurity falls below recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "High 63-session volatility of 32.35% and beta above SPY leave it vulnerable to growth-stock derating or earnings disappointment.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August technology earnings read-throughs, especially AMD and Nvidia, plus broader cloud/software spending signals before month-end."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply disruption, unresolved geopolitical claims, and route-risk premium can keep crude firm through the one-month horizon.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Oil had a 24.91% 21-session active return and 22.47% prior 105-session active return.",
"June global oil supply was estimated 9.4 million barrels per day below its pre-war level, and Gulf exports were 16.1 million barrels per day versus 24 million before the war.",
"No agreement had been reached on Strait of Hormuz reopening statements as of the cutoff, and OPEC+ highlighted energy infrastructure and maritime-route risks."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if a credible reopening/agreement is confirmed and crude reverses below its recent breakout relative to SPY.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Recent 5-session oil return was -5.50%, volatility was 53.42%, and any credible reopening or de-escalation could unwind the geopolitical premium quickly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Strait of Hormuz claims, Gulf export disruption, and OPEC+ September production adjustment decision before August trading concludes."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Near-high price action and positive recent active return support continuation if European inflation data do not worsen materially.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Europe had a 3.04% 21-session active return and was only -0.44% from its 52-week high.",
"Its 5-session return was 2.47%, and beta to SPY was 0.920.",
"The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged, while final July euro-area inflation is scheduled within the scoring window."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if euro-area inflation or energy-price stress worsens enough to trigger renewed underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Euro-area inflation at 2.9% and energy inflation at 10.0% could pressure margins, rates, and equity sentiment.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Final July euro-area inflation and global risk appetite data may confirm acceptable inflation and support international equity flows."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A rebound in semiconductor-linked risk appetite and upcoming Nvidia results could revive Taiwan's prior leadership.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Taiwan had the highest prior active rank at 1.000 and a quality evidence score of 0.757.",
"It had a 43.33% prior 105-session active return but -8.82% 21-session active return.",
"63-session volatility was 44.26%, beta was 1.779, and distance from 52-week high was -13.43%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if Taiwan fails to recover relative to SPY after semiconductor earnings catalysts or makes new relative lows.",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"reversal_case": "Large recent underperformance and high volatility suggest momentum damage could persist over only one month.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results and global electronics/AI sentiment before the August 31 close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cash-like yield and very low volatility support capital preservation if risk assets weaken.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasury had 0.08% 5-session return and 0.14% 21-session active return.",
"It had 0.21% 63-session volatility, zero 52-week-high distance, and shallow max drawdown of -0.01%.",
"FOMC maintained the federal-funds range at 3.50% to 3.75%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated as an alpha candidate if SPY trend strengthens and short Treasury continues to lag risk assets.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A positive equity month would likely leave short Treasury far behind SPY despite low drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No specific upside catalyst beyond carry and any risk-off reaction to August macro data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Higher yields, recent relative strength, and shallow drawdown could support banks and insurers if credit remains benign.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Financials had a 3.77% 21-session active return and -1.15% distance from 52-week high.",
"63-session volatility was 13.66%, close to SPY, and max drawdown was -2.42%.",
"FOMC kept rates unchanged, and the ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.71%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.85,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if yield-curve or credit-quality signals deteriorate and financials lose recent active leadership versus SPY.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Soft payroll revisions, slower GDP growth, or credit-quality concerns could hurt financials despite yield support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment, CPI, retail sales, Fed minutes, and personal income/outlays data before month-end."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.625,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A broad risk-off move could cause all equity holdings to underperform SPY or decline together.",
"A confirmed Strait of Hormuz reopening or de-escalation could sharply reverse oil exposure.",
"Hot CPI/PCE data or hawkish Fed minutes could pressure equities and duration-sensitive valuation multiples.",
"Nvidia, AMD, or other technology earnings read-throughs could disappoint and weaken cybersecurity sentiment."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if value gives back its recent 21-day active leadership and breaks materially below its 52-week-high proximity while SPY breadth narrows.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Large-cap value shows favorable relative performance with lower volatility and shallow drawdown versus SPY, offering a steadier active equity tilt for one month.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI, retail sales, GDP revision, and personal income/outlays may support value/cyclical breadth if growth remains solid and rates stabilize."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if tech earnings read-throughs disappoint or cybersecurity falls below recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Cybersecurity combines strong prior active trend with moderate recent active outperformance and a near-high price position, while avoiding the most extreme semiconductor drawdowns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August technology earnings read-throughs, especially AMD and Nvidia, plus broader cloud/software spending signals before month-end."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if a credible reopening/agreement is confirmed and crude reverses below its recent breakout relative to SPY.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Oil has strong prior and 21-day active performance backed by unresolved Middle East supply disruption and maritime-route risk, despite very high volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Strait of Hormuz claims, Gulf export disruption, and OPEC+ September production adjustment decision before August trading concludes."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if euro-area inflation or energy-price stress worsens enough to trigger renewed underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Europe is close to a 52-week high with positive recent active return, offering non-US equity diversification and a lower beta than SPY in the supplied context.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Final July euro-area inflation and global risk appetite data may confirm acceptable inflation and support international equity flows."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.525,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio avoids a single concentrated bet and selects only active holdings with base forecasts above SPY. It balances value equity, cybersecurity growth, geopolitical oil optionality, and Europe while keeping every non-benchmark cluster at or below 25%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY has a positive but modest base case after a flat July and elevated inflation/rate uncertainty. The selected basket targets stronger one-month catalysts from value breadth, tech earnings, energy disruption, and international catch-up.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15467,
"latency_seconds": 36.81242107599974,
"output_tokens": 2756,
"reasoning_tokens": 199,
"total_tokens": 18223
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines value breadth, cybersecurity trend strength, geopolitical energy support, and a yen hedge. Each active holding clears SPY's base forecast, while four distinct clusters limit dependence on one outcome.
Favor independently supported relative trends and near-term catalysts while avoiding the most extreme high-volatility rebound trades. The principal edge is diversified active exposure rather than a single concentrated macro bet.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid domestic demand and strong mega-cap revenue growth can keep the index near its highs.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 1.10% over five sessions but only 0.17% over 21 sessions.",
"The S&P 500 was 1.40% below its 52-week high with 13.64% volatility.",
"Private domestic final sales rose 3.9%, while inflation remained elevated and payroll growth slowed."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The constructive case fails if SPY breaks materially below its recent range as yields rise and earnings breadth deteriorates.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, a 4.71% ten-year yield, and weaker payrolls could compress valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August payrolls, CPI, retail sales, Fed minutes, GDP revision, PCE, and Nvidia results."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broadening market participation and elevated rates favor profitable, lower-duration value shares.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Large value delivered 3.09% active return over 21 sessions and 3.48% in the prior window.",
"Its 11.74% volatility and 2.40% drawdown were lower than SPY's.",
"The quality evidence score was 0.616, supported by strong prior, low-volatility, and shallow-drawdown ranks."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if large value trails SPY by more than 2 percentage points while growth leadership sharply reaccelerates.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "A sharp yield decline or renewed mega-cap growth surge could restore growth leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August inflation, employment, retail-sales, and GDP releases could sustain rotation toward less rate-sensitive valuations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent prior leadership plus positive recent relative performance can attract momentum flows.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Cybersecurity had 23.30% prior-window active return and 0.62% active return over 21 sessions.",
"It gained 3.88% over five sessions and sat only 3.06% below its 52-week high.",
"Its prior active rank was 0.955, though volatility was elevated at 32.35%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 11.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -7.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if cybersecurity loses 5% or more and its active return versus SPY turns below -3 percentage points.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and technology valuation sensitivity could produce a sharp post-earnings reversal.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August technology earnings, including Nvidia, and continued enterprise technology demand could reinforce sector leadership."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistently constrained Gulf exports and unresolved geopolitical risk can sustain elevated crude prices and energy earnings expectations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy outperformed SPY by 12.59% over 21 sessions despite a -0.12% five-session return.",
"Global oil supply was estimated 9.4 million barrels per day below its pre-war level.",
"No Hormuz agreement had been reached, and OPEC+ highlighted infrastructure and maritime-route risks."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 13.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -8.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated by a credible Hormuz reopening agreement alongside sustained Brent weakness and energy underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A credible Hormuz reopening or demand scare could rapidly remove the geopolitical premium.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Any August disruption to Gulf exports or failure of Hormuz negotiations could renew the energy risk premium."
},
{
"continuation_case": "BOJ normalization expectations and risk-off carry unwinds can extend yen strength.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"The yen gained 2.89% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 2.01% over 21 sessions.",
"Its 252-session SPY correlation was only 0.140.",
"One BOJ member favored raising the overnight target from around 1.0% to 1.25%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if the yen reverses its recent gain and falls more than 3% while US-Japan rate differentials widen.",
"option_id": "YEN",
"reversal_case": "Persistent US inflation and wider rate differentials could restore yen-funded carry demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August inflation data, Fed minutes, and risk-off carry unwinds could narrow US-Japan rate differentials."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior trend and a recent relative pullback could produce a domestic-equity rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Small caps had a strong 0.765 quality evidence score and 6.10% prior active return.",
"They underperformed SPY by 2.88% over 21 sessions and were nearly unchanged over five sessions.",
"Russell 2000 was up 18.1% in 2026, but June payroll growth was only 57,000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 9.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -7.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The rebound case fails if small caps make a new 63-session drawdown low while credit conditions weaken.",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"reversal_case": "Slower labor growth, elevated rates, and beta of 1.225 could deepen underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment, credit, retail-sales, and inflation reports could shift expectations for domestic growth and financing conditions."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls and softer headline growth could trigger a duration rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Long Treasuries lost 3.82% over 21 sessions and 1.20% over five sessions.",
"The ten-year Treasury yield reached 4.71% amid elevated inflation.",
"The recent pullback rank was 0.851, but prior active return was -8.21%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if the ten-year yield rises decisively above its late-July level after hot inflation data.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and hawkish FOMC dissent could push long yields higher again.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI, payrolls, Fed minutes, GDP revision, and PCE could materially reprice the rate path."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Further export disruption could cause another abrupt crude-price spike.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Oil gained 24.91% relative to SPY over 21 sessions but fell 5.50% over five sessions.",
"Supply was estimated 9.4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels, while Hormuz remained unresolved.",
"Volatility was 53.42% and the 63-session drawdown reached 32.49%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 22.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -16.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if a credible reopening agreement emerges and oil breaks below its post-war support range.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Diplomatic progress, September OPEC+ adjustment, or demand weakness could accelerate the recent reversal.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz negotiations, Gulf export developments, and implementation expectations for the September OPEC+ adjustment."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.09,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A benign Hormuz agreement could rapidly unwind the oil and energy risk premium.",
"Hot August inflation or hawkish Fed minutes could pressure equities and strengthen the dollar against the yen.",
"Technology leadership could reverse after earnings despite strong cybersecurity trend evidence.",
"Weak payrolls or consumption data could trigger a broad risk-off move that overwhelms factor selection."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if large value trails SPY by more than 2 percentage points while growth leadership sharply reaccelerates.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Broadening leadership, positive relative performance, low volatility, and a shallow drawdown support value exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August inflation, employment, retail-sales, and GDP releases could sustain rotation toward less rate-sensitive valuations."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if cybersecurity loses 5% or more and its active return versus SPY turns below -3 percentage points.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative trend and recent positive active return provide independently supported continuation potential.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August technology earnings, including Nvidia, and continued enterprise technology demand could reinforce sector leadership."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated by a credible Hormuz reopening agreement alongside sustained Brent weakness and energy underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Constrained oil supply and unresolved Hormuz risk support energy equities despite substantial reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Any August disruption to Gulf exports or failure of Hormuz negotiations could renew the energy risk premium."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if the yen reverses its recent gain and falls more than 3% while US-Japan rate differentials widen.",
"option_id": "YEN",
"rationale": "Positive short-term relative performance and a dissenting BOJ vote support a modest carry-unwind and policy-normalization position.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August inflation data, Fed minutes, and risk-off carry unwinds could narrow US-Japan rate differentials."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.89,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines value breadth, cybersecurity trend strength, geopolitical energy support, and a yen hedge. Each active holding clears SPY's base forecast, while four distinct clusters limit dependence on one outcome.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Favor independently supported relative trends and near-term catalysts while avoiding the most extreme high-volatility rebound trades. The principal edge is diversified active exposure rather than a single concentrated macro bet.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15469,
"latency_seconds": 29.62914198380895,
"output_tokens": 2246,
"reasoning_tokens": 0,
"total_tokens": 17715
}
}xai-grok-4-3
SPY selected as no other candidate clears the active-holding hurdle of base forecast greater than SPY.
SPY is the default when no active holdings show superior base-case expected return over the one-month window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad equity participation persists into August",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7489.72 on July 31 up 0.7%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7400 on August 31",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Labor market weakness triggers risk-off rotation",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Small-cap underperformance continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Russell 2000 down 0.5% on July 31"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Russell 2000 underperforms SPY by more than 3%",
"option_id": "TOTAL_US_MARKET",
"reversal_case": "Domestic growth data surprises higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "August retail sales and GDP revision"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation persists on rate stability",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Value stocks showed relative strength in July"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "LARGE_VALUE underperforms SPY by 2% or more",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth stocks rebound on tech earnings",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia and AMD results"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Domestic cyclical weakness persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Mid-cap return_5s negative at -0.66%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "IJH closes more than 4% below July 31 level",
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"reversal_case": "Construction spending and orders beat",
"time_window_catalyst": "August manufacturers orders and housing data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Small-cap lag continues amid rate uncertainty",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Russell 2000 nearly unchanged for the week"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWM underperforms SPY by more than 4%",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"reversal_case": "Payroll revisions stabilize and claims fall",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Bank earnings hold up on stable rates",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Financials showed modest positive return_5s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF closes below July 31 level by 3%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Yield curve steepens sharply on inflation",
"time_window_catalyst": "Fed minutes and regional bank updates"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply constraints support prices",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $87.93 with supply risks noted"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLE closes more than 5% below entry",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Strait of Hormuz reopens and OPEC+ increases output",
"time_window_catalyst": "OPEC+ monitoring committee statements"
},
{
"continuation_case": "European growth holds above US slowdown",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Europe equities positive return_5s at 2.47%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "VEA underperforms SPY by more than 2%",
"option_id": "DEVELOPED_EX_US",
"reversal_case": "ECB signals further tightening or euro weakens",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area inflation flash and ECB updates"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC policy uncertainty with 3 dissenters favoring hike",
"Elevated inflation prints in August data releases"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7400 on August 31",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "No active option base forecast exceeds SPY base; SPY is the benchmark proxy.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and CPI releases"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1,
"portfolio_rationale": "SPY selected as no other candidate clears the active-holding hurdle of base forecast greater than SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is the default when no active holdings show superior base-case expected return over the one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15692,
"latency_seconds": 11.442596561973915,
"output_tokens": 1401,
"reasoning_tokens": 584,
"total_tokens": 17677
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in energy complex for geopolitical supply premium while adding software rebound, financials, and value factor exposures that each carry higher base forecasts than SPY. Cluster limits respected with energy at the 50% cap and remaining holdings diversified.
SPY base is modest given mixed July close and elevated macro uncertainty; selected holdings clear the active hurdle on recent relative strength plus catalysts inside the scoring window. Energy pair dominates expected return contribution.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid real final sales and mega-cap earnings keep broad index grinding higher",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed July 31 up 0.7% but finished July with a small loss",
"spy_return_21s at 0.17% and distance_52w_high -1.40%",
"FOMC held rates with elevated inflation and outlook uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Close below recent range on rising claims or hawkish Fed minutes",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Soft payrolls or sticky CPI trigger multiple compression",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation and mid-August CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent supply disruption premium and OPEC+ discipline sustain sector gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +12.59% with Brent at $87.93",
"June global oil supply 9.4 mb/d below pre-war level",
"quality evidence score 0.384 but strong prior trend"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained Brent decline or full export normalization",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Diplomatic progress reopening Hormuz collapses the geopolitical bid",
"time_window_catalyst": "OPEC+ September adjustment and Iran-related statements before Aug 31"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tight physical balances and infrastructure risks keep crude elevated",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"uso_return_21s +25.08% and active_return_21s +24.91%",
"Gulf exports 16.1 mb/d versus 24 mb/d pre-war",
"return_5s -5.50% after large prior run"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil price collapse on peace headlines or inventory builds",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Demand weakness or rapid supply recovery erodes the spike",
"time_window_catalyst": "Any confirmed parameters on Strait reopening or lack thereof"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cloud and AI spending momentum extends the short-term rebound",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s +7.50% and Microsoft Azure growth 39%+",
"Amazon AWS +37% and Meta revenue +28%",
"distance_52w_high -19.69% after prior weakness"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Guidance cuts or sharp NASDAQ underperformance",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High valuations meet rising yields or capex fatigue",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results late August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steeper curve and solid compensation data support net interest and fee income",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +3.77% and return_5s +1.12%",
"volatility_63s 13.66% near SPY",
"ten-year yield at 4.71%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment claims spike or regional-bank stress headlines",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit deterioration or deposit flight on labor weakness",
"time_window_catalyst": "Employment report and Fed minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value leadership persists amid elevated rates and mixed growth data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +3.09% and prior_105s_active_return +3.48%",
"low volatility rank supportive and distance_52w_high only -0.09%",
"quality evidence score 0.616"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Value-growth spread reverses sharply on dovish surprise",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation back into mega-cap growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI and retail sales mid-August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relative yield and energy stabilization favor European equities",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +3.04% and return_5s +2.47%",
"euro-area flash inflation 2.9% with energy 10%",
"ECB held rates unchanged"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "EURUSD spike or downside GDP surprises",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Stronger euro or weaker China demand hits exporters",
"time_window_catalyst": "Final July euro-area inflation mid-August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Secular demand and recent relative strength continue",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"prior_105s_active_return +23.30% and return_5s +3.88%",
"quality evidence score 0.610",
"distance_52w_high -3.06%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Breakdown below recent support on rising volatility",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "High-beta tech selloff on rates or profit-taking after strong prior run",
"time_window_catalyst": "Remaining August tech earnings"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.305,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sudden de-escalation in Middle East oil logistics removing the risk premium",
"Higher-than-expected core inflation prints forcing rate-hike repricing",
"Tech earnings disappointment reversing the software bounce",
"Broad risk-off move hitting high-beta energy and growth names simultaneously"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude sustained drop below recent levels or confirmed full Strait reopening without disruption premium",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Elevated oil prices and unresolved supply risks from Middle East support continued outperformance versus broad equities over the one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August OPEC+ adjustment and any Hormuz/Iran developments before Aug 31 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Rapid normalization of Gulf exports to pre-war levels or sharp demand destruction data",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct crude exposure captures the large prior active gains and geopolitical supply tightness more levered than equity energy names.",
"time_window_catalyst": "September OPEC+ production decision implementation signals and US-Iran statements through month-end"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad growth-stock multiple compression on higher yields or weak cloud commentary",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent 5-session rebound and solid mega-cap software/cloud earnings provide base-case edge over SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results and remaining August tech earnings/guidance"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rise in claims or credit-spread widening beyond recent ranges",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive active return over 21 sessions and resilient bank/insurance backdrop versus flat SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and Fed minutes release mid-to-late August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Value factor reversal on renewed mega-cap leadership or recessionary payrolls surprise",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Superior 21-session active return and lower volatility profile versus growth-heavy SPY supports modest outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI/PPI prints and second-quarter GDP revision in mid-August"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.905,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in energy complex for geopolitical supply premium while adding software rebound, financials, and value factor exposures that each carry higher base forecasts than SPY. Cluster limits respected with energy at the 50% cap and remaining holdings diversified.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base is modest given mixed July close and elevated macro uncertainty; selected holdings clear the active hurdle on recent relative strength plus catalysts inside the scoring window. Energy pair dominates expected return contribution.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16546,
"latency_seconds": 58.23480208986439,
"output_tokens": 2519,
"reasoning_tokens": 998,
"total_tokens": 20063
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)25%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)30%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%S&P 500 (SPY)25% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)35%Financials Sector (XLF)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%Europe Equities (VGK)10% | 0.53 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | S&P 500 (SPY)50%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%Cybersecurity (CIBR)25%Crude Oil (USO)25%Europe Equities (VGK)25% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)30%Cybersecurity (CIBR)25%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Japanese Yen (FXY)20% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)25%Crude Oil (USO)25%Software (IGV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-31 | 239.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-31 | 92.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-31 | 27.51 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-31 | 29.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-31 | 115.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-31 | 147.01 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-31 | 35.64 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-31 | 36.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-31 | 58.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-31 | 17.56 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-31 | 59.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-31 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-31 | 55.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-31 | 108.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-31 | 116.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-31 | 85.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-31 | 39.56 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-31 | 129.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-31 | 91.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-31 | 70.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-31 | 94.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-31 | 58.75 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-31 | 59.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-31 | 215.01 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-31 | 14.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-31 | 106.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-31 | 90.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-31 | 56.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-31 | 76.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-31 | 162.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-31 | 79.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-31 | 49.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-31 | 179.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-31 | 92.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-31 | 47.77 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-31 | 106.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-31 | 92.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-31 | 57.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-31 | 82.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-31 | 50.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-31 | 100.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-31 | 76.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-31 | 105.64 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-31 | 687.99 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-31 | 45.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-31 | 76.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-31 | 747.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-31 | 540.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-31 | 91.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-31 | 52.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-31 | 94.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-31 | 49.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-31 | 63.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-31 | 157.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-31 | 96.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-31 | 175.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-31 | 368.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-31 | 107.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-31 | 48.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-31 | 97.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-31 | 33.47 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-31 | 28.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-31 | 118.32 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-31 | 251.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-31 | 76.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-31 | 75.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-31 | 299.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-31 | 291.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-31 | 221.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-31 | 44.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | cc254298eeb8...e2c61c9e |
| manifest.yaml | 7a6d9fc291ba...a4168224 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 03f4ff28867d...071b834f |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 5cf37b7ee10a...b54e680d |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 85307f7a3f1b...efcfa9b6 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 44179555a4ef...bc0d53e8 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 47d3fc53d999...12412850 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 20faf5ccbd84...8f655ea5 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |