Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 69.1 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +56.88% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +65.62%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Financials Sector (XLF) is the largest aggregate allocation at +21.88%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-28 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-monthly-20260730
33,058 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Financials Sector (XLF)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-30-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-30
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-31T08:42:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-31T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-30
- Exit date: 2026-08-28
- Entry rule: Use the Thursday, July 30, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Friday, August 28, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-31T08:42:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Thursday, July 30, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 30, the S&P 500 closed at 7,437.63, up 1.7%; the Dow closed at 52,208.06, up 1.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,122.18, up 2.8%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,946.10, up 1.4%.
- The S&P 500 more than recovered its July 29 decline. Microsoft rose 15.5%, Micron Technology 18.4%, Lam Research 18%, and Advanced Micro Devices 13%, while Meta Platforms fell 8%.
- Through July 30, the S&P 500 was up 8.6% in 2026, the Dow 8.6%, the Nasdaq 8.1%, and the Russell 2000 18.7%.
## Rates, Growth, Inflation, and Labor
- The FOMC voted 9-3 on July 29 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. It described activity as solid, unemployment as little changed, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated.
- The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.67% late July 30, unchanged from late July 29; the thirty-year yield rose to 5.22% from 5.20%.
- Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%, the PCE price index 5.1%, and core PCE 3.4%, all at annual rates.
- In June, personal income rose 0.2%, nominal PCE 0.3%, real PCE 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% over twelve months; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%, respectively.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% and rose 5.5% over twelve months.
- Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 for the week ended July 25, up 9,000. Insured unemployment was 1.782 million and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
## Economy, Companies, and Cross-Assets
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%, and orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%.
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%, cloud revenue up 27%, and Azure growth of 43%; More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%. Meta reported revenue up 28%, costs and expenses up 55%, operating income down 8%, and net income down 14%.
- Apple reported quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%, gross margin of 50.1%, and diluted EPS of $2.02, up 29%. Tariff refunds added approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to EPS.
- Amazon reported quarterly net sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%, operating income of $27.5 billion, and AWS sales growth of 37%. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was a $7.6 billion outflow after property and equipment purchases increased by $66.1 billion.
- Amazon forecast third-quarter sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- Brent crude fell 1.4% on July 30 to $86.88 per barrel. South Korea's Kospi fell 1.2%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.9%, and Samsung Electronics fell 0.7%.
- The Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to keep its overnight call-rate target around 1.0%; one member proposed 1.25%. It projected CPI excluding fresh food would accelerate clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026 before declining toward around 2% later.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged July 23. Final June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 28 Close
- July 31 after the cutoff: second-quarter U.S. Employment Cost Index and euro-area July flash inflation.
- August 3-4: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; June U.S. international trade; June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 6-7: weekly U.S. unemployment claims; July U.S. Employment Situation; June consumer credit.
- August 12-13: July CPI and PPI.
- August 18-19: July U.S. industrial production and Federal Reserve minutes for the July 28-29 meeting.
- August 26: second estimate of second-quarter GDP; July Personal Income and Outlays; July advance durable-goods orders; Nvidia results after the U.S. close.
- August 28: monthly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-30-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-30'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-31T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-31T08:38:23.211166+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Thursday, July 30, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Friday, August 28, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-30'
exit_date: '2026-08-28'
created_at: '2026-07-31T08:38:23.211166+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-31T08:42:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Thursday, July 30, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 30, the S&P 500 closed at 7,437.63, up 1.7%; the Dow closed at 52,208.06, up 1.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,122.18, up 2.8%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,946.10, up 1.4%.
- The S&P 500 more than recovered its July 29 decline. Microsoft rose 15.5%, Micron Technology 18.4%, Lam Research 18%, and Advanced Micro Devices 13%, while Meta Platforms fell 8%.
- Through July 30, the S&P 500 was up 8.6% in 2026, the Dow 8.6%, the Nasdaq 8.1%, and the Russell 2000 18.7%.
## Rates, Growth, Inflation, and Labor
- The FOMC voted 9-3 on July 29 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. It described activity as solid, unemployment as little changed, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated.
- The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.67% late July 30, unchanged from late July 29; the thirty-year yield rose to 5.22% from 5.20%.
- Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%, the PCE price index 5.1%, and core PCE 3.4%, all at annual rates.
- In June, personal income rose 0.2%, nominal PCE 0.3%, real PCE 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% over twelve months; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%, respectively.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% and rose 5.5% over twelve months.
- Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 for the week ended July 25, up 9,000. Insured unemployment was 1.782 million and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
## Economy, Companies, and Cross-Assets
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%, and orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%.
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%, cloud revenue up 27%, and Azure growth of 43%; More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%. Meta reported revenue up 28%, costs and expenses up 55%, operating income down 8%, and net income down 14%.
- Apple reported quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%, gross margin of 50.1%, and diluted EPS of $2.02, up 29%. Tariff refunds added approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to EPS.
- Amazon reported quarterly net sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%, operating income of $27.5 billion, and AWS sales growth of 37%. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was a $7.6 billion outflow after property and equipment purchases increased by $66.1 billion.
- Amazon forecast third-quarter sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- Brent crude fell 1.4% on July 30 to $86.88 per barrel. South Korea's Kospi fell 1.2%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.9%, and Samsung Electronics fell 0.7%.
- The Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to keep its overnight call-rate target around 1.0%; one member proposed 1.25%. It projected CPI excluding fresh food would accelerate clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026 before declining toward around 2% later.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged July 23. Final June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 28 Close
- July 31 after the cutoff: second-quarter U.S. Employment Cost Index and euro-area July flash inflation.
- August 3-4: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; June U.S. international trade; June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 6-7: weekly U.S. unemployment claims; July U.S. Employment Situation; June consumer credit.
- August 12-13: July CPI and PPI.
- August 18-19: July U.S. industrial production and Federal Reserve minutes for the July 28-29 meeting.
- August 26: second estimate of second-quarter GDP; July Personal Income and Outlays; July advance durable-goods orders; Nvidia results after the U.S. close.
- August 28: monthly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "2bbb950ee42704752b3e45a09db9712d67a1126f5ad90eb27fa6874876298234",
"manifest.yaml": "edae737f9e107be9ed97b403113a3c727ce199f62a13ebc3385a2647dd09ccf7",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "b9fdda7aff8bda97fcd68ebed7c5bce7771cbaf96d0cc25da9f59af37441381d",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "f39620ac63afc14e61d4a7d41c8adea0528ee9c8366fc2969b24a88c1ea89444",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "2e625f61322ee021c62e2a225483beb1ad13cc174ca65ab454a54afe1c05fc19",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "e2a588184058e65082c1b5ce7669cd8712a9d0081452e9fe847907158b6c8e79",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "d58bf57d814e4229743952064956e145acfd7a257f6df1d0948076014d93a6be",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "2f5bdef255cfa69d8bb497339083183ec2aae6420ecf96a6492fa656152e9650",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "ef3cf65c548d3cc3229f74393dc61292363e4cb8a6e609b4a75e4c2062b6698e",
"submission_schema.json": "722025ee45d276e3f4d132a6be281de790a0c5478dc0051f23ade0524ff79571"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Barbell of an oversold, catalyst-rich semiconductor position into Nvidia earnings against low-volatility broadening trades (equal-weight, value, financials) that are outperforming SPY in a sticky-inflation, higher-rate regime.
Breadth is rotating away from cap-weighted mega-cap concentration while AI capex remains robust; semis' -17% active pullback into Nvidia's Aug 26 report offers asymmetric upside, funded by resilient value/financials/equal-weight sleeves.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid earnings (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN) and steady Fed support continued grind higher",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,437.63 up 1.7% on Jul 30, +8.6% YTD",
"FOMC held rates 3.50-3.75% with three hike dissents; core PCE 3.3% y/y"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI shifting consensus toward Fed hikes",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation plus weakening payrolls (57k) could trigger stagflation repricing",
"time_window_catalyst": "Jobs Aug 7, CPI Aug 12, Nvidia Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Hyperscaler capex guidance confirms AI demand; deep pullback offers re-entry before Nvidia",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105d active return +49.5% but -17.2% 21d active pullback",
"Micron +18.4%, Lam +18%, AMD +13% on Jul 30; Azure +43%, AWS +37%, Meta capex $130-145B",
"Nvidia results scheduled Aug 26, before exit"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 14,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Nvidia guidance disappointment or renewed semi-complex breakdown below recent lows",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "55% volatility and stretched positioning; Nvidia miss could extend -25% drawdown",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia earnings Aug 26 after close"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Market breadth broadening with Russell 2000 +18.7% YTD supports average-stock outperformance",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP minus SPY +1.16% (5d) and +1.91% (21d)",
"Volatility 11.2% and max drawdown -2.0%, lowest among equity options"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY relative return turns decisively negative",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings strength could re-concentrate returns in cap-weighted index",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12 and jobs Aug 7 sustaining rotation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated inflation and yields favor value sectors; strong relative momentum with low volatility",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+4.1% 21d active return, -0.5% from 52-week high",
"10y at 4.67%, 30y 5.22% supports value tilt"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp yield decline restoring growth-factor leadership",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Falling yields or growth-scare could rotate back to defensive growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI/PPI Aug 12-13"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve and solid activity support bank margins; strong recent relative trend",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+7.0% 21d active return, -1.0% from 52-week high, drawdown only -2.4%",
"30-year yield rose to 5.22%, steepening curve"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Loan survey shows sharp tightening or credit-quality deterioration",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak recent pullback rank (0.09) means signal is extended; credit worries could reverse",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weakening dollar and elevated inflation could keep bid under gold",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU +2.37% 21d, dollar -0.95% 21d",
"Prior 105d active return -33.4%, -23.9% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rebound or rising real yields",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Deep prior downtrend and hawkish Fed dissents; real rates elevated",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12; PCE Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could rally duration if growth cracks",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT -3.83% 21d; 30y yield 5.22% and rising",
"Core PCE 3.3% y/y, three FOMC members favored a hike"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Inflation prints below expectations driving yields lower",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation and hawkish dissents keep long yields under upward pressure",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12, FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Bounce off deep lows with improving relative momentum",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+9.4% 21d active return but -27.6% prior 105d active return; -15.6% from 52-week high",
"Q2 GDP +4.3% y/y"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Renewed relative underperformance versus SPY",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Bounce within severe downtrend; policy and geopolitical risk unresolved",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified before Aug 28 close"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.97,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Nvidia guidance disappointment could send SMH sharply lower given 55% volatility",
"Hot July CPI (Aug 12) with three FOMC dissenters favoring hikes could hit all equities",
"Breadth rotation could reverse, with mega-cap growth reasserting leadership over RSP/value",
"Payroll weakness (57k June, negative revisions) could morph into growth-scare selloff"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Nvidia guidance miss or further AI-capex de-rating pushing SMH below its recent lows",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strongest prior trend (+49.5% prior active) with deep -17% recent pullback into Nvidia results Aug 26; strong AI capex confirmation from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta guidance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia earnings after close Aug 26; hyperscaler capex follow-through"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY relative trend reverses as mega-cap leadership reasserts",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Breadth broadening: RSP beat SPY +1.16% (5d) and +1.91% (21d) with lowest equity volatility (11.2%) and shallow drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12 and jobs report Aug 7 supporting soft-landing rotation into average stock"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp fall in long yields reigniting growth-over-value rotation",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "+4.1% 21d active return, near 52-week high, low volatility (12.2%) and shallow -2.4% drawdown; benefits from sticky-inflation, higher-yield regime.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI/PPI Aug 12-13 keeping rates elevated favors value over long-duration growth"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit deterioration signals or sharp yield-curve flattening",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "+7.0% 21d active return, only -1.0% off 52-week high, steepening curve (30y 5.22%) supports banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4; continued curve steepening"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot inflation prints forcing Fed hike repricing",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark ballast at record-adjacent levels with solid mega-cap earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Jobs report Aug 7, CPI Aug 12, Nvidia Aug 26"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.97,
"portfolio_rationale": "Barbell of an oversold, catalyst-rich semiconductor position into Nvidia earnings against low-volatility broadening trades (equal-weight, value, financials) that are outperforming SPY in a sticky-inflation, higher-rate regime.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Breadth is rotating away from cap-weighted mega-cap concentration while AI capex remains robust; semis' -17% active pullback into Nvidia's Aug 26 report offers asymmetric upside, funded by resilient value/financials/equal-weight sleeves.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27727,
"latency_seconds": 54.848251880845055,
"output_tokens": 3997,
"total_tokens": 31724
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward broadening leadership (financials, dividend, equal-weight) that has outperformed mega-cap tech over 21 days, with SPY as anchor. Mega-cap tech showed weakness (Meta -8%, semis -17% active) suggesting rotation.
Overweight value/breadth themes with strong recent active returns and low drawdown, anchored by SPY, avoiding overextended semis and momentum.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad recovery with strong mega-cap earnings supports continued gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,437.63 up 1.7%, recovered July 29 decline",
"spy_return_21s -0.68%, distance from 52w high -2.10%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY falls more than 4%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation (core PCE 3.3%) and hawkish Fed dissenters risk pullback",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI Aug 12-13, Nvidia Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steepening curve and solid economy favor banks; near highs",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Financials active_return_21s +7.0%, drawdown only -2.42%",
"distance from 52w high -1.04%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials fall more than 3%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit stress or curve flattening hurts sector",
"time_window_catalyst": "Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive tilt captures rotation from tech with low volatility",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND active_return_21s +6.04%, beta 0.26, drawdown -2.95%",
"5s return +1.86%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD lags market by more than 2%",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Tech re-acceleration leaves low-beta dividends behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "July jobs report Aug 6-7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broadening market breadth (positive_asset_share improving) favors equal weight",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy_21s +1.91%, lowest volatility 11.21%",
"drawdown only -2.04%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP lags SPY by more than 2%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap concentration resumes",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Deep pullback could rebound on Nvidia earnings",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH active_return_21s -17.16%, volatility 55.23%, drawdown -24.62%",
"distance from 52w high -19.44%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -15,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH falls another 10%",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility and momentum breakdown risk further declines",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior momentum in energy",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Energy active_return_21s +11.70% but Brent fell 1.4% to $86.88",
"volatility 24.23%, drawdown -13.21%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil weakness (uso_5s -8.61%) drags sector",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly inventory data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration hedge if growth slows",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10yr yield 4.67% unchanged, elevated inflation core PCE 3.3%",
"IEF drawdown -2.00%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "10yr yield rises above 4.9%",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation keeps yields elevated",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12-13"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong momentum and ECB steady policy",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Europe 5s return +3.60%, at 52w high 0.00%",
"active_return_21s +3.45%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK falls more than 3%",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "At 52w high, extended; euro strength risk",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area flash inflation Jul 31"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.45,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Mega-cap tech re-accelerates after strong earnings (MSFT, Amazon), pulling SPY above value tilts",
"Hot August CPI drives yields higher, hurting rate-sensitive financials and dividend names",
"Broadening rotation reverses and concentration resumes"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials sector falls more than 3% on credit or yield-curve shock",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong 21-day active return (+7.0%), low drawdown, deep recent pullback rank suggests continued broadening leadership with steepening curve.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI/PPI Aug 12-13 and Fed minutes Aug 18-19"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD underperforms broad market by more than 2% amid tech re-acceleration",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Defensive dividend equity with strongest 21-day active return (+6.0%), low beta 0.26, minimal drawdown; benefits from broadening rally away from mega-cap tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation Aug 6-7"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap concentration resumes and RSP lags SPY by more than 2%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Equal-weight outperforming cap-weight (rsp_minus_spy_21s +1.91%), lowest volatility and drawdown; captures market breadth improvement.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 26 and broadening breadth signals"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY falls more than 4% on rate or earnings shock",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark anchor providing broad large-cap exposure at recovery highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI Aug 12-13 and Nvidia results Aug 26"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward broadening leadership (financials, dividend, equal-weight) that has outperformed mega-cap tech over 21 days, with SPY as anchor. Mega-cap tech showed weakness (Meta -8%, semis -17% active) suggesting rotation.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight value/breadth themes with strong recent active returns and low drawdown, anchored by SPY, avoiding overextended semis and momentum.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27733,
"latency_seconds": 42.80049582500942,
"output_tokens": 2804,
"total_tokens": 30537
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Core SPY plus a broadening tilt into equal-weight, financials and healthcare, all of which show positive recent relative strength with materially lower volatility and shallower drawdowns than the crowded semiconductor/momentum complex that just gave back large active returns.
Breadth is improving (positive asset share 68% over 5 sessions, RSP beating SPY) while high-beta AI leadership has sharply reversed. We hold SPY as core and add lower-volatility, positive-trend exposures.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong mega-cap earnings and easing headline inflation support the index.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,437.63 up 1.7% on July 30, up 8.6% YTD",
"spy_return_21s -0.68%, drawdown -4.49%",
"Microsoft, Apple, Amazon reported double-digit revenue growth"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year yield above 5.0%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Core PCE 3.3%, three FOMC hawks, and 30-year at 5.22% could compress multiples.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12; Nvidia Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth broadening away from concentrated mega-cap leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy_21s +1.91%",
"volatility_63s 11.21%, max drawdown -2.04%",
"Russell 2000 up 18.7% YTD signals breadth"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-minus-SPY 21-session spread turns negative",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "A Nvidia-led mega-cap melt-up would leave equal weight behind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Payrolls Aug 7; CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve, solid activity, low drawdown and near-high price.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +7.00%, only -1.04% from 52-week high",
"volatility 13.66%, max drawdown -2.42%",
"30-year yield rose to 5.22%, steeper curve"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF drawdown deeper than 5% or curve flattening sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak recent-pullback rank (0.090) suggests short-term extension; credit could sour.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive leadership as growth data soften (Q2 GDP 1.5%, payrolls 57k).",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +3.74%, max drawdown only -3.74%",
"beta_spy 0.295, low correlation 0.239"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turns negative over the window",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on continuation would leave low-beta defensives lagging.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 18-19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Micron/Lam surge and Nvidia Aug 26 could restart the trend.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s -17.16% after prior +49.47%",
"volatility 55.23%, drawdown -24.62%, -19.44% from high",
"Micron +18.4%, Lam +18% on July 30"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 16,
"forecast_low_pct": -16,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH failing to reclaim its 21-session relative downtrend",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "A -17% one-month active reversal with elevated volume signals momentum unwind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated crude and inflation hedge demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +11.70% but recent pullback rank 0.030",
"Brent fell 1.4% to $86.88; uso_return_5s -8.61%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -9,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Crude rolling over sharply into the window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly inventories and OPEC commentary"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Softening payrolls could rally duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"tlt_return_21s -3.83%; 30-year yield rose to 5.22%",
"Core PCE 3.3% year over year"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year above 4.9%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and hawkish FOMC dissents pressure the long end.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weaker dollar and stable ECB policy aid European equities.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s +3.60%, at 52-week high, active_return_21s +3.45%",
"ECB held rates; June euro-area inflation 2.8%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK falling more than 3% below its 52-week high",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Prior-window active return -5.32% shows no durable trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area July flash inflation"
}
],
"confidence": 0.53,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.355,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot July CPI on Aug 12 lifting yields and pressuring all equity exposure",
"Nvidia results Aug 26 re-igniting mega-cap tech leadership and causing SPY to outrun our diversifiers",
"Labor-market deterioration (payrolls 57k, downward revisions) hitting cyclicals and financials",
"Hawkish FOMC minutes given three members favored a hike"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year yield above 5.0% or hot July CPI triggering hawkish repricing",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure amid strong mega-cap earnings (Microsoft, Apple, Amazon beats) and Nvidia catalyst Aug 26.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12, Nvidia results Aug 26"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-minus-SPY spread turning negative on a 21-session basis",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Broadening breadth: RSP beating SPY on 5- and 21-session windows with lowest volatility and shallow drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation Aug 7 and CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit stress or sharp curve flattening; XLF drawdown beyond 5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong 21-session active return (+7.0%), low volatility, minimal drawdown, near 52-week high, steep curve with 30-year at 5.22%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4; July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turning negative over the window",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive diversifier with positive 21-session active return, shallowest drawdown (-3.7%) and low SPY beta.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector rotation around Aug CPI and FOMC minutes Aug 18-19"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.355,
"portfolio_rationale": "Core SPY plus a broadening tilt into equal-weight, financials and healthcare, all of which show positive recent relative strength with materially lower volatility and shallower drawdowns than the crowded semiconductor/momentum complex that just gave back large active returns.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Breadth is improving (positive asset share 68% over 5 sessions, RSP beating SPY) while high-beta AI leadership has sharply reversed. We hold SPY as core and add lower-volatility, positive-trend exposures.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27727,
"latency_seconds": 49.43894271599129,
"output_tokens": 3107,
"total_tokens": 30834
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio balances core US equity exposure with targeted allocations to Financials and Healthcare. Financials are positioned to benefit from stable rates and solid growth, while Healthcare provides defensive growth. This combination aims to outperform the broader market while managing downside risk.
A balanced approach combining core S&P 500 exposure with overweights in Financials and Healthcare to capture upside while mitigating volatility.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued solid economic growth and resilient corporate earnings support further gains.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,437.63, up 1.7% on July 30.",
"Advance Q2 real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp re-acceleration in inflation or a significant miss in mega-cap tech earnings.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Inflation re-accelerates or economic data weakens significantly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12-13 CPI/PPI and August 28 Nvidia earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable rates and solid economic growth support bank profitability and loan growth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FOMC maintained federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%.",
"Financials active return 21s is 7.00%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden deterioration in credit conditions or unexpected dovish pivot by the Fed.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit conditions deteriorate or the Fed signals unexpected rate cuts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3-4 Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Investors seek defensive growth amid macro uncertainty, supporting healthcare valuations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare active return 21s is 3.74%.",
"Defensive characteristics appeal amid elevated outlook uncertainty."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Regulatory changes or broad market risk-on rally leaving defensive sectors behind.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A strong risk-on rally leads to underperformance of defensive sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing clinical data readouts and defensive rotation if macro data weakens."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong AI demand and cloud growth continue to drive mega-cap tech earnings.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Technology active return 21s is -7.08%.",
"Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant earnings miss by key tech bellwethers.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Valuations compress due to higher rates or earnings disappoint.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 28 Nvidia earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflation cools faster than expected, leading to lower yields and higher bond prices.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.67% late July 30.",
"Long Treasury active return 21s is -3.15%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp re-acceleration in inflation data.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Inflation remains sticky, forcing yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12-13 CPI/PPI."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Macro uncertainty and potential for a weaker dollar support safe-haven demand for gold.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Gold active return 21s is 3.05%.",
"FOMC described outlook uncertainty as elevated."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant strengthening of the US dollar and rising real yields.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Strong economic data and a stronger dollar reduce gold's appeal.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12-13 CPI/PPI and August 18-19 Fed minutes."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.24,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Inflation re-accelerating, forcing the Fed to hike rates.",
"Mega-cap tech earnings disappointing, dragging down the broader market.",
"A sudden deterioration in credit conditions impacting Financials."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp re-acceleration in inflation or a significant miss in mega-cap tech earnings.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core holding providing broad US equity exposure amid solid economic activity and resilient mega-cap tech earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12-13 CPI/PPI and August 28 Nvidia earnings."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden deterioration in credit conditions or unexpected dovish pivot by the Fed.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Benefiting from a stable rate environment and solid economic growth, with strong recent momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3-4 Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Regulatory changes or broad market risk-on rally leaving defensive sectors behind.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive growth characteristics offer a buffer against potential volatility while maintaining upside potential.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing clinical data readouts and defensive rotation if macro data weakens."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.74,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio balances core US equity exposure with targeted allocations to Financials and Healthcare. Financials are positioned to benefit from stable rates and solid growth, while Healthcare provides defensive growth. This combination aims to outperform the broader market while managing downside risk.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "A balanced approach combining core S&P 500 exposure with overweights in Financials and Healthcare to capture upside while mitigating volatility.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16968,
"latency_seconds": 17.27457377803512,
"output_tokens": 1885,
"total_tokens": 18853
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts away from cap-weighted mega-cap concentration toward breadth, financial cyclicals, Europe, and defensive healthcare. Each selected active holding has a base forecast above SPY while cluster exposures remain at or below the 50% cap.
Base case expects modest positive alpha from continued breadth and selected sector/international relative strength through the one-month macro-event window. The allocation avoids overconcentration in technology despite strong single-day mega-cap earnings reactions because volatility and drawdowns are elevated there.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid domestic activity, resilient real PCE, and strong mega-cap earnings can support broad U.S. large caps into the August macro releases.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed up 1.7% on July 30 and was up 8.6% in 2026 through July 30.",
"SPY 21-session return was -0.68%, 5-session return was 0.48%, and it was 2.10% below its 52-week high.",
"FOMC held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% while describing activity as solid and inflation as elevated."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY fails to hold its July 30 recovery and falls materially below recent ranges while breadth and credit weaken.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, slower payroll growth, downward payroll revisions, or hawkish Fed signals could compress equity multiples after a sharp July 30 rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment situation, July CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, second GDP estimate, July income/outlays, and Nvidia results before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broadening participation can continue if macro data confirm solid domestic demand without forcing a sharper rate shock.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP returned 1.63% over 5 sessions and had 1.91% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"RSP volatility was 11.21%, below SPY's 13.71%, with a shallower 63-session drawdown of -2.04%.",
"RSP distance from 52-week high was -1.06% versus SPY at -2.10%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP loses its 21-session relative advantage versus SPY or market breadth turns materially negative before exit.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "If mega-cap technology again dominates or breadth weakens, equal weight may lag the cap-weighted benchmark.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July labor data, July CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, and late-August income/outlays data testing whether breadth can persist beyond mega-cap earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Financials can keep outperforming if credit data remain stable and solid activity supports loan demand and earnings expectations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF had 7.00% 21-session active return versus SPY and 2.10% 5-session return.",
"Financials were only 1.04% below their 52-week high with a -2.42% 63-session max drawdown.",
"The briefing reported solid activity and real final sales to private domestic purchasers up 3.9% annualized."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit conditions deteriorate in the loan survey, unemployment claims accelerate, or XLF falls back below SPY on a 21-session active basis.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Higher long rates, weaker labor data, or signs of tighter credit could renew concerns about bank balance sheets and credit quality.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, July labor data, CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, and July income/outlays data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A breakout near 52-week highs can persist if euro-area inflation is not disruptive and global risk appetite remains constructive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"VGK returned 3.60% over 5 sessions and had 3.45% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"Europe was at a 0.00% distance from its 52-week high.",
"The ECB kept policy rates unchanged on July 23, and final June euro-area inflation was 2.8%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Euro-area inflation or growth signals pressure equities and VGK breaks below recent highs with negative active performance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "European equities could reverse if inflation data are unfavorable, growth concerns rise, or currency moves hurt U.S.-listed returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area July flash inflation after the cutoff and global risk appetite through the August macro releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Healthcare can continue outperforming if investors seek lower-beta exposure during inflation, employment, and Fed-minutes risk.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV had 3.74% 21-session active return versus SPY and 1.29% 5-session return.",
"Healthcare's 63-session max drawdown was -3.74%, shallower than SPY's -4.49%.",
"XLV beta to SPY was 0.295, offering lower market sensitivity."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.95,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.6,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses its positive 21-session active return versus SPY or defensive sectors fail to attract flows during macro volatility.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A strong risk-on rally led by high-beta technology or cyclicals would likely reduce demand for defensive healthcare exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July labor data, CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, and defensive sector rotation before the August 28 close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong cloud and mega-cap earnings reports could restore growth leadership if investors look through elevated rates.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.8% on July 30, helped by large single-stock moves including Microsoft up 15.5%.",
"QQQ had -6.50% 21-session active return versus SPY and -1.22% 5-session return.",
"QQQ volatility was 25.54% with a -11.22% 63-session max drawdown."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -6.5,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ fails to regain positive short-term active momentum versus SPY or rate-sensitive growth multiples compress after inflation data.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "High volatility, recent underperformance, and sensitivity to rates and earnings expectations could lead to another pullback within the month.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings follow-through, July CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, and Nvidia results on August 26 after the close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low volatility and stable labor-market claims could support carry-like returns if credit spreads remain contained.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"HYG returned 0.30% over 5 sessions and had 0.52% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"HYG volatility was 3.65% with a -1.01% 63-session max drawdown.",
"Initial unemployment claims were 197,000, and insured unemployment rate was 1.2%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG turns negative on a 21-session active basis versus SPY or credit-sensitive data show clear deterioration.",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"reversal_case": "Credit can weaken quickly if the loan survey or labor releases show deteriorating financing conditions or rising default risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, July employment situation, weekly claims, and Fed minutes."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Gold could benefit if inflation concerns persist, real-rate expectations fall, or macro uncertainty increases during August releases.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU returned 1.51% over 5 sessions and 3.05% active over 21 sessions versus SPY.",
"Gold remained 23.89% below its 52-week high with a -16.01% 63-session max drawdown.",
"The ten-year Treasury yield was 4.67%, and inflation remained elevated relative to the Fed's 2% goal."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU loses recent positive momentum while the U.S. dollar and real yields rise.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "High yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, or risk-on equity flows could reverse recent precious-metals strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, July income/outlays, and U.S. dollar movement before exit."
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.365,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A renewed mega-cap technology rally could cause cap-weighted SPY to outperform diversified and defensive tilts.",
"Hot July inflation data or hawkish Fed minutes could pressure equities and financials.",
"Weak labor data or deteriorating loan conditions could reverse cyclicals and regional breadth.",
"International equity exposure could lag if the U.S. dollar strengthens or European inflation surprises negatively."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP loses its 21-session relative advantage versus SPY or market breadth turns materially negative before exit.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Equal-weight S&P 500 has better near-term breadth than cap-weighted SPY, with positive 5-session and 21-session relative returns, lower volatility, and a shallower drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July labor data, July CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, and late-August income/outlays data testing whether breadth can persist beyond mega-cap earnings."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit conditions deteriorate in the loan survey, unemployment claims accelerate, or XLF falls back below SPY on a 21-session active basis.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials show strong 21-session active return, moderate volatility, shallow drawdown, and benefit if solid activity and resilient consumer data outweigh rate and credit concerns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, July labor data, CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, and July income/outlays data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Euro-area inflation or growth signals pressure equities and VGK breaks below recent highs with negative active performance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Europe has positive recent absolute and active performance, a 52-week-high reading, and ECB policy is on hold with inflation data scheduled immediately after cutoff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area July flash inflation after the cutoff and global risk appetite through the August macro releases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.95,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses its positive 21-session active return versus SPY or defensive sectors fail to attract flows during macro volatility.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare offers lower beta diversification with positive recent active performance and a shallow drawdown, which can help if macro releases challenge higher-beta cyclicals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July labor data, CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, and defensive sector rotation before the August 28 close."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.165,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts away from cap-weighted mega-cap concentration toward breadth, financial cyclicals, Europe, and defensive healthcare. Each selected active holding has a base forecast above SPY while cluster exposures remain at or below the 50% cap.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Base case expects modest positive alpha from continued breadth and selected sector/international relative strength through the one-month macro-event window. The allocation avoids overconcentration in technology despite strong single-day mega-cap earnings reactions because volatility and drawdowns are elevated there.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15405,
"latency_seconds": 39.85574673791416,
"output_tokens": 2741,
"reasoning_tokens": 170,
"total_tokens": 18146
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines improving US breadth with two pullback-supported growth exposures and a low-correlation currency diversifier. Every active holding has a base forecast above SPY, while cluster weights remain at or below 50%.
Favor broadening participation and selective rebound candidates rather than chasing the most volatile recent winners. The yen reduces dependence on a single US equity outcome.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid private domestic demand and strong large-cap earnings can sustain the broader uptrend.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned -0.68% over 21 sessions and 0.48% over five sessions.",
"The index was 2.10% below its 52-week high with 13.71% 63-session volatility.",
"Growth was solid but inflation remained elevated and the FOMC vote included three preferences for a rate increase."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes more than 5% below entry or breadth deteriorates with RSP lagging SPY by over 2 percentage points.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, restrictive yields, and concentrated post-earnings moves could trigger valuation compression.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment, CPI, PPI, Fed minutes, GDP revision, and personal-income data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive breadth and resilient domestic demand can extend rotation beyond the largest index constituents.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP outperformed SPY by 1.91 percentage points over 21 sessions and 1.16 points over five sessions.",
"RSP had lower 63-session volatility and a shallower drawdown than SPY.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.643, including strong low-volatility and shallow-drawdown ranks."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 7.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points on a rolling 10-session basis.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Another narrow mega-cap technology surge or weakening domestic growth could restore cap-weighted leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August labor, inflation, production, and income data could sustain broad market participation if growth remains resilient."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The strong prior relative trend can resume because recent performance remained positive without the severe pullback seen in broader technology.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"CIBR's prior 105-session active return was 18.02%.",
"Its five-session return was 2.62% and 21-session active return was 0.87%.",
"The quality evidence score was 0.616, led by a 0.910 prior-active rank."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 11.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -7.5,
"invalidation_condition": "CIBR falls more than 8% from entry or its active return versus SPY turns below -4%.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "High 32.28% volatility and growth-duration sensitivity could produce a sharp reversal if yields rise.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August macro releases and Nvidia results may renew demand for technology themes before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Prior leadership can reassert itself if the recent pullback stabilizes and financing conditions do not tighten further.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XBI's prior 105-session active return was 17.82%.",
"Its 21-session active return was -3.61%, providing a recent pullback after prior strength.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.728 with strong prior-active and pullback ranks."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 12.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -8.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XBI falls more than 7% from entry or long yields rise above their entry level by 30 basis points.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"reversal_case": "High volatility, weak near-term momentum, or higher yields could deepen the drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Softer inflation or labor data during August could ease financing-rate pressure on biotechnology equities."
},
{
"continuation_case": "BOJ normalization expectations and softer US data could narrow rate differentials and extend yen strength.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FXY returned 2.80% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 2.70 points over 21 sessions.",
"Its 252-session correlation with SPY was only 0.140.",
"The BOJ held at 1.0%, but one member preferred 1.25% and projected inflation above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "FXY loses more than 3% from entry or reverses below its pre-entry 21-session trend.",
"option_id": "YEN",
"reversal_case": "Firm US inflation or risk-on carry demand could widen rate differentials and weaken the yen.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August inflation and labor data may narrow rate differentials, while the BOJ's inflation outlook can support normalization expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "High long yields and resilient private demand could support margins and credit activity.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLF outperformed SPY by 7.00 percentage points over 21 sessions and returned 2.10% over five sessions.",
"Its 63-session volatility was 13.66% and drawdown was only -2.42%.",
"Its quality evidence score was only 0.409, with a 0.090 recent-pullback rank."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperforms SPY by more than 3 percentage points over 10 sessions or credit spreads widen sharply.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "The strong recent active return may mean-revert, while weak payrolls and tighter lending could raise credit concerns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The Senior Loan Officer survey, employment report, and Fed minutes can reset expectations for margins and credit quality."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Solid activity and low claims can keep spreads contained and allow carry-like gains.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"HYG returned 0.30% over five sessions and had a 0.52% 21-session active return.",
"Its 63-session volatility was 3.65% with a -1.01% maximum drawdown.",
"The quality evidence score was 0.553, supported by high low-volatility and shallow-drawdown ranks."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG falls more than 1.5% from entry or begins underperforming SPY by more than 2 percentage points.",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls, tighter bank lending, or an equity selloff could widen spreads.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The lending survey and August employment data may clarify near-term default and spread risk."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflation uncertainty and softer dollar conditions could sustain safe-haven and real-asset demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU returned 1.51% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 3.05 points over 21 sessions.",
"Its prior 105-session active return was -33.38%.",
"Its quality evidence score was only 0.184 with a -16.01% 63-session drawdown."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU loses more than 5% from entry or the dollar and long yields rise together materially.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "High real yields and the weak prior relative trend could overwhelm the recent bounce.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI, PPI, Fed minutes, and personal-consumption inflation data can move real-rate expectations."
}
],
"confidence": 0.59,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.04,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A renewed mega-cap rally could cause equal-weight equities to lag SPY.",
"Hot August inflation or rising long yields could pressure biotechnology and growth equities.",
"Cybersecurity's elevated volatility could overwhelm its trend support.",
"A widening US-Japan rate differential could reverse the yen rally."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points on a rolling 10-session basis.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Broadening participation, positive benchmark-relative returns, and lower volatility support continued outperformance versus cap-weighted SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August labor, inflation, production, and income data could sustain broad market participation if growth remains resilient."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "CIBR falls more than 8% from entry or its active return versus SPY turns below -4%.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative trend and a recent positive active return provide a less concentrated technology-growth opportunity.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August macro releases and Nvidia results may renew demand for technology themes before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "XBI falls more than 7% from entry or long yields rise above their entry level by 30 basis points.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strong prior active performance and a recent relative pullback create a tactical rebound setup outside technology.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Softer inflation or labor data during August could ease financing-rate pressure on biotechnology equities."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "FXY loses more than 3% from entry or reverses below its pre-entry 21-session trend.",
"option_id": "YEN",
"rationale": "Recent strength, low equity correlation, and a dissenting BOJ vote support a modest diversifying allocation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August inflation and labor data may narrow rate differentials, while the BOJ's inflation outlook can support normalization expectations."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.84,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines improving US breadth with two pullback-supported growth exposures and a low-correlation currency diversifier. Every active holding has a base forecast above SPY, while cluster weights remain at or below 50%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Favor broadening participation and selective rebound candidates rather than chasing the most volatile recent winners. The yen reduces dependence on a single US equity outcome.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15407,
"latency_seconds": 39.03187688207254,
"output_tokens": 2254,
"reasoning_tokens": 0,
"total_tokens": 17661
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Mix of SP500 core with value, financials and healthcare for expected outperformance based on recent relative strength and quality metrics.
Selected holdings with base forecasts exceeding SPY while respecting cluster caps and allocation rules.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Recovery momentum persists into August data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed up 1.7% on July 30",
"Year-to-date gain of 8.6%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Inflation or labor data disappoints",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation continues amid rate stability",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 4.10% over 21 days",
"Quality evidence score 0.607"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth stocks rebound sharply",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Bank earnings and rate environment supportive",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 7.00% over 21 days",
"Low drawdown rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit spreads widen materially",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive demand holds through data window",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 3.74% over 21 days",
"Shallow drawdown profile"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Policy or regulatory surprises",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market tracks SPY closely",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return -0.34% over 21 days"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "TOTAL_US_MARKET",
"reversal_case": "Small-cap outperformance accelerates",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dividend stability attracts flows",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 6.04% over 21 days"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rate volatility increases",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Equal-weight rotation persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 1.91% over 21 days"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings dominate",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Manufacturing data improves",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return -3.01% over 21 days"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"reversal_case": "Global growth concerns rise",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.66,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Elevated inflation readings could pressure equities",
"Labor market softening may trigger risk-off rotation",
"Volatility in growth-sensitive sectors"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad diversified US equity exposure with solid recent recovery and scheduled data releases.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value tilt shows stronger recent relative performance and lower drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials exhibit positive active return and quality evidence support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare provides defensive balance with moderate quality score.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data and August CPI releases"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.66,
"portfolio_rationale": "Mix of SP500 core with value, financials and healthcare for expected outperformance based on recent relative strength and quality metrics.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings with base forecasts exceeding SPY while respecting cluster caps and allocation rules.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15633,
"latency_seconds": 20.77983984001912,
"output_tokens": 1672,
"reasoning_tokens": 804,
"total_tokens": 18109
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in SOFTWARE, FINANCIALS, EUROPE and EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, each with base forecasts above SPY, spanning technology_and_growth, financials, international_equity and diversified_us_equity clusters under the 50% cap. Weighted expected return exceeds SPY base via earnings momentum, breadth and relative strength while limiting single-cluster risk.
Selected holdings clear the active hurdle with higher base forecasts driven by recent earnings, breadth and international relative strength. Allocations stay within cluster caps and sum to 100% for one-month alpha versus SPY.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid activity description and mega-cap earnings support grind higher if inflation cools.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed up 1.7% on July 30 recovering prior day; YTD +8.6%",
"FOMC held funds rate 3.50-3.75% with elevated inflation and uncertainty noted",
"spy_return_21s -0.68%, distance_52w_high -2.10%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent July lows on higher-than-expected inflation or growth scare.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Sticky core inflation or weak payrolls could trigger risk-off and negative monthly return.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI Aug 12-13 and employment situation Aug 6-7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cloud and software earnings momentum plus recent price rebound can extend into August.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE return_5s +7.13% and active_return_21s +3.67%",
"Microsoft revenue +18%, Azure +43%; Apple revenue +16%, EPS +29%",
"Amazon AWS +37% with strong operating income"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "IGV gives back the 5-session gain on broader tech selling.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High volatility_63s 33.45% and distance_52w_high -20.77% leave room for sharp mean-reversion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-earnings follow-through and Nvidia results Aug 26."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable rates and positive relative trend support further financials leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS active_return_21s +7.00%, return_5s +2.10%",
"Ten-year yield stable at 4.67%; FOMC held rates",
"distance_52w_high only -1.04% with moderate vol"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperforms SPY on rising claims or negative loan-officer survey.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit concerns or curve steepening shock could reverse recent outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Employment data and Fed minutes for rate outlook."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relative strength and policy stability can persist if USD softens.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EUROPE return_5s +3.60%, active_return_21s +3.45%, distance_52w_high 0.00%",
"ECB kept rates unchanged; euro-area inflation 2.8%",
"France CAC 40 rose 0.9% on July 30"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK loses 52-week high status on EUR decline or growth miss.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Weaker European data or energy price spike could reverse gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area July flash inflation July 31."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Improving breadth and lower concentration favor equal-weight continuation.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_return_5s +1.63%, rsp_minus_spy_21s +1.91%",
"EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 active_return_21s +1.91%, low max_drawdown_63s -2.04%",
"positive_asset_share_5s 68.12%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP active return turns negative versus SPY on concentration rebound.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap re-acceleration could leave RSP lagging again.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Breadth confirmation around CPI and industrial production data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior trend and individual chip names could reassert after pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS prior_105s_active_return +49.47% but return_5s -7.11%, active_21s -17.16%",
"Micron +18.4%, Lam +18%, AMD +13% on July 30",
"volatility_63s 55.23%, distance_52w_high -19.44%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Further breakdown below recent lows on weak guidance.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme vol and deep recent drawdown favor further mean reversion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results after close Aug 26."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value relative strength and low drawdown support steady gains.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE return_5s +1.84%, active_return_21s +4.10%",
"distance_52w_high -0.53%, volatility_63s 12.21%",
"quality evidence score 0.607 with high shallow-drawdown rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD active return fades if growth stocks dominate again.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth re-acceleration or rate spike could lag value.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Inflation and employment data for cyclical confirmation."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid and positive active trend can persist if volatility rises.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE active_return_21s +3.74%, return_5s +1.29%",
"distance_52w_high -2.24%, max_drawdown_63s -3.74%",
"defensive characteristics amid elevated macro uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms on broad risk-on move or sector-specific news.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation away from defensives on strong growth data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond general macro calendar."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.225,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Elevated inflation prints (CPI/PPI Aug 12-13) or hawkish Fed minutes could pressure equities broadly",
"Growth-stock reversal after mega-cap earnings if guidance disappoints or Nvidia Aug 26 weakens tech",
"USD strength or European data miss reversing international allocation",
"Sudden risk-off move favoring pure SPY concentration over equal-weight and sector tilts"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp reversal in software names or broader growth selloff pushing IGV below recent lows before exit.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent software rebound and mega-cap cloud/software earnings support higher base return than SPY over the one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued digestion of Microsoft/Apple/Amazon results and any follow-through into August software sentiment before Nvidia on Aug 26."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Unexpected credit stress or sharp rise in yields reversing XLF relative gains.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive active returns, solid relative strength, and stable rates backdrop favor financials outperformance versus SPY base case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment data Aug 6-7 and Fed minutes Aug 18-19 for rate-path clarity supporting banks."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.7,
"invalidation_condition": "EUR weakness or European growth scare driving VGK underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Recent outperformance, zero distance to 52w high, and ECB hold provide edge over SPY base for the scoring window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area flash inflation July 31 and any USD weakness supporting European equities into late August."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Return of mega-cap dominance or RSP underperformance versus SPY on risk-off move.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Breadth improvement and lower concentration risk with positive active 21s return support modest edge to cap-weighted SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued equal-weight leadership if July CPI/PPI Aug 12-13 confirm disinflation without growth scare."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.925,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in SOFTWARE, FINANCIALS, EUROPE and EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, each with base forecasts above SPY, spanning technology_and_growth, financials, international_equity and diversified_us_equity clusters under the 50% cap. Weighted expected return exceeds SPY base via earnings momentum, breadth and relative strength while limiting single-cluster risk.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings clear the active hurdle with higher base forecasts driven by recent earnings, breadth and international relative strength. Allocations stay within cluster caps and sum to 100% for one-month alpha versus SPY.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16487,
"latency_seconds": 44.637220901902765,
"output_tokens": 2730,
"reasoning_tokens": 455,
"total_tokens": 19672
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)30%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%S&P 500 (SPY)10% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)30%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%S&P 500 (SPY)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15% | 0.53 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Financials Sector (XLF)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)35%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Europe Equities (VGK)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)30%Biotechnology (XBI)20%Japanese Yen (FXY)15% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Software (IGV)35%Financials Sector (XLF)30%Europe Equities (VGK)20%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-30 | 238.13 | Adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-30 | 93.29 | Adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-30 | 27.48 | Adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-30 | 29.82 | Adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-30 | 113.98 | Adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-30 | 151.46 | Adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-30 | 36.70 | Adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-30 | 36.53 | Adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-30 | 58.69 | Adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-30 | 17.50 | Adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-30 | 59.79 | Adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-30 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-30 | 55.50 | Adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-30 | 106.58 | Adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-30 | 112.39 | Adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-30 | 85.47 | Adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-30 | 39.34 | Adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-30 | 127.48 | Adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-30 | 90.02 | Adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-30 | 71.09 | Adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-30 | 94.79 | Adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-30 | 58.19 | Adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-30 | 58.96 | Adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-30 | 215.38 | Adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-30 | 14.51 | Adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-30 | 106.47 | Adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-30 | 90.99 | Adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-30 | 57.00 | Adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-30 | 77.30 | Adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-30 | 163.52 | Adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-30 | 79.47 | Adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-30 | 49.70 | Adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-30 | 178.39 | Adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-30 | 93.21 | Adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-30 | 47.88 | Adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-30 | 106.41 | Adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-30 | 93.29 | Adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-30 | 57.58 | Adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-30 | 82.80 | Adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-30 | 51.64 | Adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-30 | 101.86 | Adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-30 | 77.11 | Adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-30 | 105.76 | Adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-30 | 683.55 | Adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-30 | 45.30 | Adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-30 | 75.90 | Adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-30 | 741.69 | Adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-30 | 538.90 | Adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-30 | 91.65 | Adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-30 | 53.50 | Adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-30 | 93.31 | Adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-30 | 49.84 | Adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-30 | 64.11 | Adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-30 | 161.21 | Adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-30 | 94.00 | Adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-30 | 175.73 | Adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-30 | 366.27 | Adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-30 | 107.74 | Adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-30 | 48.68 | Adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-30 | 97.62 | Adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-30 | 33.41 | Adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-30 | 28.14 | Adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-30 | 117.43 | Adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-30 | 250.71 | Adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-30 | 76.38 | Adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-30 | 75.35 | Adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-30 | 298.77 | Adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-30 | 292.59 | Adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-30 | 221.79 | Adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-30 | 44.66 | Adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 2bbb950ee427...76298234 |
| manifest.yaml | edae737f9e10...dd09ccf7 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | b9fdda7aff8b...7441381d |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | f39620ac63af...1ea89444 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 2e625f61322e...1c05fc19 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | e2a588184058...8b6c8e79 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | d58bf57d814e...4d93a6be |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 2f5bdef255cf...152e9650 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |