Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 60.1 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +40.62% to defensive equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +48.12%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Healthcare Sector (XLV) is the largest aggregate allocation at +23.12%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-28 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-monthly-20260729-clean
32,749 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-29-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-29
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-30T07:34:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-30T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-29
- Exit date: 2026-08-28
- Entry rule: Use the Wednesday, July 29, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Friday, August 28, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-30T07:34:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 29, the S&P 500 closed at 7,316.15, down 1.5%; the Dow closed at 51,594.14, down 2.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,442.94, down 1.7%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,906.31, down 1.6%.
- A majority of U.S. stocks fell. Nvidia declined 3.6% and KLA declined 10.8%. The Nasdaq ended 9.8% below its prior-month record.
- Through July 29, the S&P 500 was up 6.9% in 2026, the Dow 7.3%, the Nasdaq 5.2%, and the Russell 2000 17.1%.
## Rates, Inflation, and Policy
- The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The FOMC described activity as solid, unemployment as little changed, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated in part because of the Middle East conflict.
- Before the FOMC decision, futures pricing implied about a 34% probability of an increase. This was market-implied pricing, not a Federal Reserve forecast.
- The two-year U.S. Treasury yield ended July 29 at 4.24%, down from 4.26%, while the ten-year yield rose to 4.68% from 4.61%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. Energy fell 5.7% on the month.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices fell 1.4% while services prices rose 0.2%.
- May PCE inflation was 0.4% month over month and 4.1% over twelve months; core PCE was 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. June PCE and advance second-quarter GDP are scheduled for July 30; outcomes were unavailable at the cutoff.
## Economy, Companies, and Cross-Assets
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. The monthly estimate's ±0.4 percentage-point margin did not establish a statistically significant monthly change.
- June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%; orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%; and computers and electronic-product orders rose 3.1%.
- June new-home sales ran at a 628,000 annual rate with 9.3 months of supply. The reported monthly and annual changes had sampling margins wider than the estimates.
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $90.0 billion, up 18%; Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27%; Azure revenue growth of 43%; and commercial remaining performance obligation of $678 billion, up 84%. More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%, Windows OEM and devices revenue fell 7%, and Xbox content and services revenue fell 10%.
- Meta reported revenue of $60.801 billion, up 28%, while costs and expenses rose 55%; operating income fell 8% and net income fell 14%. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- October Brent crude settled at $88.09 per barrel, up 7.3%. Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the Middle East conflict remained unresolved.
- South Korea's Kospi fell 6.0% after a 10.8% decline the previous day; Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.0% and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.5%.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged on July 23. June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 28 Close
- July 30-31: advance second-quarter U.S. GDP; June Personal Income and Outlays; second-quarter Employment Cost Index; Bank of Japan policy communication; Apple and Amazon results.
- August 3-4: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; June U.S. international trade; June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation and June consumer credit.
- August 12-13: July CPI and PPI.
- August 18-19: July U.S. industrial production and Federal Reserve minutes for the July 28-29 meeting.
- August 26: second estimate of second-quarter GDP; July Personal Income and Outlays; July advance durable-goods orders; Nvidia results after the U.S. close.
- August 28: monthly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-29-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-29'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-30T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-30T07:33:48.963603+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Wednesday, July 29, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Friday, August 28, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-29'
exit_date: '2026-08-28'
created_at: '2026-07-30T07:33:48.963603+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-30T07:34:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 29, the S&P 500 closed at 7,316.15, down 1.5%; the Dow closed at 51,594.14, down 2.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,442.94, down 1.7%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,906.31, down 1.6%.
- A majority of U.S. stocks fell. Nvidia declined 3.6% and KLA declined 10.8%. The Nasdaq ended 9.8% below its prior-month record.
- Through July 29, the S&P 500 was up 6.9% in 2026, the Dow 7.3%, the Nasdaq 5.2%, and the Russell 2000 17.1%.
## Rates, Inflation, and Policy
- The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The FOMC described activity as solid, unemployment as little changed, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated in part because of the Middle East conflict.
- Before the FOMC decision, futures pricing implied about a 34% probability of an increase. This was market-implied pricing, not a Federal Reserve forecast.
- The two-year U.S. Treasury yield ended July 29 at 4.24%, down from 4.26%, while the ten-year yield rose to 4.68% from 4.61%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. Energy fell 5.7% on the month.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices fell 1.4% while services prices rose 0.2%.
- May PCE inflation was 0.4% month over month and 4.1% over twelve months; core PCE was 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. June PCE and advance second-quarter GDP are scheduled for July 30; outcomes were unavailable at the cutoff.
## Economy, Companies, and Cross-Assets
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. The monthly estimate's ±0.4 percentage-point margin did not establish a statistically significant monthly change.
- June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%; orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%; and computers and electronic-product orders rose 3.1%.
- June new-home sales ran at a 628,000 annual rate with 9.3 months of supply. The reported monthly and annual changes had sampling margins wider than the estimates.
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $90.0 billion, up 18%; Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27%; Azure revenue growth of 43%; and commercial remaining performance obligation of $678 billion, up 84%. More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%, Windows OEM and devices revenue fell 7%, and Xbox content and services revenue fell 10%.
- Meta reported revenue of $60.801 billion, up 28%, while costs and expenses rose 55%; operating income fell 8% and net income fell 14%. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- October Brent crude settled at $88.09 per barrel, up 7.3%. Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the Middle East conflict remained unresolved.
- South Korea's Kospi fell 6.0% after a 10.8% decline the previous day; Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.0% and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.5%.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged on July 23. June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 28 Close
- July 30-31: advance second-quarter U.S. GDP; June Personal Income and Outlays; second-quarter Employment Cost Index; Bank of Japan policy communication; Apple and Amazon results.
- August 3-4: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; June U.S. international trade; June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation and June consumer credit.
- August 12-13: July CPI and PPI.
- August 18-19: July U.S. industrial production and Federal Reserve minutes for the July 28-29 meeting.
- August 26: second estimate of second-quarter GDP; July Personal Income and Outlays; July advance durable-goods orders; Nvidia results after the U.S. close.
- August 28: monthly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "4d77b56a7cc9c7e108896504d8798f20733d811dee15c6494298514ed7ff93ad",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
With mega-cap tech correcting sharply (Nasdaq 9.8% off record), hawkish Fed dissent, sticky inflation, and unresolved Middle East oil risk, the portfolio tilts toward value, equal-weight breadth, defensive healthcare, and energy as a geopolitical hedge, with a small SPY core.
Overweight value, breadth, healthcare, and energy versus concentrated growth during an ongoing tech correction with elevated rates and geopolitical oil risk.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Correction could extend given hawkish Fed and sticky inflation",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 down 1.5% on July 29, -2.40% over 5 days, 9.8% Nasdaq drop from record",
"FOMC held rates 3.50-3.75% with three hawkish dissents; inflation elevated"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "None; benchmark holding",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Solid earnings (Microsoft +18% revenue) and modest pullback could support bounce",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 payrolls, Aug 12 CPI, Aug 26 Nvidia results"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rotation out of expensive growth into value amid elevated rates and hawkish Fed dissent",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+0.81% 5-day return vs SPY -2.40%; +4.35% active return over 21 days",
"Only -1.00% off 52-week high with 12.19% volatility and -2.40% max drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Value active return turns negative for two consecutive weeks",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Tech recovery pulls flows back to growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI supporting higher-for-longer rates"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth rotation continues as mega-cap concentration unwinds",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP beat SPY by 3.83% over 5 days, 2.82% over 21 days",
"Lowest equity volatility (11.21%) and shallowest drawdown (-2.04%) among broad US equity options"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY 5-day spread turns decisively negative",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Strong mega-cap earnings restore cap-weighted leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 26 could re-concentrate leadership either way"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive demand persists amid weak payrolls (57k) and falling consumer confidence",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Best 5-day sector return +4.27%; +4.98% active over 21 days",
"Beta 0.32, only -0.61% off 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk appetite returns with defensives underperforming",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally rotates away from defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 employment report and Aug 12 CPI defensive flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Ongoing Middle East conflict keeps supply-risk premium in crude, boosting energy earnings",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $88.09, up 7.3%; Strait of Hormuz access unresolved",
"XLE +11.02% active return over 21 days; negative beta to SPY (-0.22)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $80 on de-escalation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation collapses geopolitical premium; oil already -1.80% over 5 days",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East conflict developments through August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Nvidia results Aug 26 could spark rebound after deep pullback",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-14.09% 5-day return, -24.62% drawdown; KLA -10.8%, Nvidia -3.6% on July 29",
"53.6% volatility, beta 2.32"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -15,
"invalidation_condition": "Stabilization and reclaim of prior highs before entry",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Prior 48% active run unwinding; momentum crash dynamics and extreme volatility",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 26 after close"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical safe-haven demand could support prices",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-25.14% off 52-week high, prior 105-day active return -29.63%",
"-2.12% over 5 days despite risk-off equity tape"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold keeps falling despite escalating geopolitical stress",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Failing to rally on risk-off suggests weak demand; high real yields headwind",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East escalation or hot CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could trigger duration rally",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year yield rose to 4.68%; TLT -4.91% over 21 days",
"Three FOMC members favored a rate hike; core PCE 3.4%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Clear disinflation with 10-year yield falling below 4.4%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation and hawkish dissent keep upward pressure on long yields",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI and Aug 19 Fed minutes"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"cost_usd": 0.47775,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.92,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rapid tech rebound (e.g., strong Apple/Amazon or Nvidia results) reverses breadth rotation and value/defensive leadership",
"Middle East de-escalation cuts oil prices, hurting the energy sleeve",
"Hotter CPI/PPI in mid-August triggers rate-hike fears and a broad equity selloff",
"Weak payrolls could hit cyclical value and energy demand expectations"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp growth/tech rebound with value active return turning negative for two consecutive weeks",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value showing positive 5-day return (+0.81%) and +4.35% active return while growth corrects; low drawdown and shallow distance to 52w high suggest defensive leadership in a risk-off tape.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12 and jobs report Aug 7 favor low-multiple, low-duration equities if inflation stays sticky"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY spread turns negative as mega-cap tech reclaims leadership",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Breadth rotation is strong: RSP beat SPY by 3.83% over 5 days and 2.82% over 21 days as mega-cap tech corrects; low volatility (11.2%) and shallow drawdown (-2.0%).",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued rotation away from concentrated mega-cap tech ahead of Nvidia results Aug 26"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rally that reverses defensive sector leadership",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Best 5-day sector return (+4.27%), low beta (0.32), near 52-week high, defensive characteristics suited to elevated policy uncertainty and weakening labor data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows around Aug 7 payrolls and Aug 12-13 CPI/PPI amid hawkish Fed dissent"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Middle East de-escalation driving Brent back below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent up 7.3% to $88.09 with unresolved Strait of Hormuz risk; XLE +11.02% active over 21 days with negative SPY beta provides geopolitical hedge.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing Middle East conflict and tanker access risk through August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "None; benchmark holding",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark ballast maintaining core beta while tilts play out.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple/Amazon results, Aug 7 jobs, Aug 12 CPI, Nvidia Aug 26"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.72,
"portfolio_rationale": "With mega-cap tech correcting sharply (Nasdaq 9.8% off record), hawkish Fed dissent, sticky inflation, and unresolved Middle East oil risk, the portfolio tilts toward value, equal-weight breadth, defensive healthcare, and energy as a geopolitical hedge, with a small SPY core.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight value, breadth, healthcare, and energy versus concentrated growth during an ongoing tech correction with elevated rates and geopolitical oil risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.47775,
"input_tokens": 27560,
"latency_seconds": 60.58732362790033,
"output_tokens": 4043,
"total_tokens": 31603
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Market is in a defensive rotation: equal-weight beating cap-weight, tech leadership breaking down hard (SMH -14%, QQQ -6%), while low-beta defensives (dividends, financials, healthcare) show positive returns and shallow drawdowns. Tilt toward quality defensives while keeping SPY core.
Defensive equity tilt favoring dividends, financials, and healthcare over vulnerable mega-cap tech during a breadth-narrowing selloff.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid economy and possible dip-buying stabilize large caps",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY down 1.5% on July 29, -2.40% over 5s",
"9.8% below prior Nasdaq record signals tech weakness"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad drawdown exceeding 8%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tech-led selloff deepens dragging cap-weighted index",
"time_window_catalyst": "GDP Jul 30, jobs Aug 7, CPI Aug 12, Nvidia Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues as tech unwinds",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+2.83% 5s, +7.51% active 21s",
"Low beta 0.27, drawdown only -2.95%, near 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained mega-cap tech rally",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation back to growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12-13; defensive flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steeper curve and stable credit support banks",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+7.07% active 21s, drawdown -2.42%",
"10y yield rose to 4.68% steepening curve"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional bank deposit flight",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit stress or hike fears",
"time_window_catalyst": "Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive leadership persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+4.27% 5s best sector, +4.98% active 21s",
"Low beta 0.32, drawdown -3.74%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Adverse policy news",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Drug pricing headlines",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows amid volatility"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+3.53% 5s, +5.10% active 21s",
"Negative beta -0.05"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth rally",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth improvement",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"RSP beating SPY +3.83% 5s, +2.82% 21s",
"Low drawdown -2.04%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Cap-weight retakes leadership",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap resurgence",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oversold bounce",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH -14.09% 5s, drawdown -24.62%",
"KLA down 10.8%, Nvidia down 3.6%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -2,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -20,
"invalidation_condition": "Further chip guidance cuts",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Momentum unwind continues",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia Aug 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth slowdown flight to safety",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT -4.91% 21s, 10y rose to 4.68%",
"Elevated inflation 3.5% CPI"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "10y breaks above 4.9%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Rate hike fears push yields higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 18"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.745,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp tech-led rebound leaving defensives behind and lagging SPY",
"August CPI/PPI surprise triggering rate-hike repricing that hurts financials and rate-sensitives",
"Middle East conflict escalation spiking oil and broad risk-off"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rally in mega-cap tech that leaves defensives behind",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Strong defensive equity, low beta (0.27), positive recent returns while market sold off, near 52w high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI Aug 12-13; defensive rotation persists"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit stress or regional bank deposit flight",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Best breadth-leading sector with +7% active 21s, minimal drawdown, low volatility, near highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4; steepening curve (10y rose)"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Adverse drug pricing policy headline",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with best recent 5s return (+4.27%), low beta, shallow drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows amid elevated tech volatility"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity drawdown exceeding 8%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure to limit tracking error.",
"time_window_catalyst": "GDP Jul 30, jobs Aug 7, Nvidia Aug 26"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.245,
"portfolio_rationale": "Market is in a defensive rotation: equal-weight beating cap-weight, tech leadership breaking down hard (SMH -14%, QQQ -6%), while low-beta defensives (dividends, financials, healthcare) show positive returns and shallow drawdowns. Tilt toward quality defensives while keeping SPY core.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive equity tilt favoring dividends, financials, and healthcare over vulnerable mega-cap tech during a breadth-narrowing selloff.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27566,
"latency_seconds": 30.380842300131917,
"output_tokens": 2539,
"total_tokens": 30105
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
SPY's mega-cap/semiconductor engine is unwinding hard (SMH -14% in 5 sessions, MTUM -9.9%), while breadth-equal-weight, financials, healthcare and dividends are outperforming with far shallower drawdowns. A small oil sleeve hedges the unresolved Hormuz supply risk with negative SPY beta.
Tilt away from cap-weighted tech concentration into equal-weight, financials, healthcare and dividend equity, plus a geopolitical oil hedge.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid activity per FOMC, strong Microsoft cloud growth, seasonal dip-buying",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,316.15 down 1.5% on July 29; up 6.9% YTD",
"spy_return_21s -1.56%, spy_return_5s -2.40%",
"FOMC held 3.50-3.75% with three members preferring a hike"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent lows on hot CPI",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap concentration unwinding, elevated inflation, hawkish dissent",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 jobs, August 12-13 CPI/PPI, Nvidia August 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth rotation away from crowded mega-caps persisting",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy_21s +2.82%, 5s +3.83%",
"Lowest equity volatility 11.21% and max drawdown -2.04%",
"Only -0.90% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2% while breadth narrows back to mega-cap leadership",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings beats re-narrow leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 payrolls, August 12-13 CPI/PPI, Nvidia August 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Curve steepening supports net interest margins; low volatility leadership",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +7.07%, drawdown only -2.42%",
"Ten-year yield rose to 4.68% while two-year fell to 4.24%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen materially (HYG down >2%) or curve flattens sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit deterioration, weak labor data, CRE stress at regionals",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey August 3-4; CPI August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation with weakening consumer confidence (90.8)",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s +4.27%, active_return_21s +4.98%",
"max_drawdown_63s only -3.74%, -0.61% from 52w high",
"beta_spy 0.318"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls more than 4% or policy/pricing headline hits sector",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rebound leaves low-beta defensives behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and growth data; defensive rotation flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low-beta income leadership amid uncertain growth",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_21s +7.51%, corr_spy 0.314, beta 0.273",
"Drawdown -2.95%, essentially at 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp back-up in long yields plus renewed growth-stock leadership",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rising long yields pressure income equities",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rate and inflation prints in August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Unresolved Hormuz supply risk keeps premium elevated; negative SPY beta diversifies",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"October Brent settled $88.09, up 7.3%",
"Strait of Hormuz tanker access and Middle East conflict unresolved",
"beta_spy -1.117, uso_return_21s +20.76%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 15,
"forecast_low_pct": -12,
"invalidation_condition": "De-escalation or Brent back below $78",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation, contango roll drag, demand softening",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East conflict / Hormuz developments through August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Nvidia August 26 results could restart AI trade",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_5s -14.09%, drawdown -24.62%, volatility 53.6%",
"KLA declined 10.8%, Nvidia 3.6% on July 29",
"Kospi fell 6.0% after 10.8% prior-day drop"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 16,
"forecast_low_pct": -18,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH loses another 10% before Nvidia print",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Momentum crowding unwind and high volatility argue for further downside",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results August 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could rally duration",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"tlt_return_21s -4.91%, ten-year yield rose to 4.68%",
"June CPI 3.5% y/y, PPI 5.5% y/y, three FOMC hawks dissented"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year yield breaks above 4.85%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and hike-risk pricing keep yields rising",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI; August 7 payrolls"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"cost_usd": 0.2217,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.64,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp V-shaped rebound in semis/mega-cap tech would leave defensives lagging SPY",
"Hot July CPI (August 12) with three FOMC hawks dissenting could pressure financials and rate-sensitive defensives",
"Middle East de-escalation would sink oil sleeve quickly",
"Weak payrolls August 7 could hit cyclical financials harder than mega-caps",
"Concentration in defensive factors underperforms in a broad risk-on melt-up"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2% while breadth narrows back to mega-cap leadership",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Broad large-cap with far lower concentration in the de-rating mega-cap tech complex; lowest volatility and drawdown in equity set.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 payrolls, August 12-13 CPI/PPI, Nvidia August 26"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen materially (HYG down >2%) or curve flattens sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Steeper curve (10y up to 4.68%, 2y down), low drawdown, strong recent relative return with defensive volatility profile.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey August 3-4; CPI August 12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls more than 4% or policy/pricing headline hits sector",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive leadership with shallow 63-day drawdown and near 52-week high; low beta to tech unwind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and growth data; defensive rotation flows"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp back-up in long yields plus renewed growth-stock leadership",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Low correlation to SPY (0.31), strong 21-day active return, minimal drawdown; ballast if mega-cap unwind continues.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rate and inflation prints in August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "De-escalation or Brent back below $78",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Brent settled $88.09 up 7.3% with Strait of Hormuz access unresolved; supply-risk premium can persist through the window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East conflict / Hormuz developments through August"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.44,
"portfolio_rationale": "SPY's mega-cap/semiconductor engine is unwinding hard (SMH -14% in 5 sessions, MTUM -9.9%), while breadth-equal-weight, financials, healthcare and dividends are outperforming with far shallower drawdowns. A small oil sleeve hedges the unresolved Hormuz supply risk with negative SPY beta.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Tilt away from cap-weighted tech concentration into equal-weight, financials, healthcare and dividend equity, plus a geopolitical oil hedge.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.2217,
"input_tokens": 27560,
"latency_seconds": 44.38502229889855,
"output_tokens": 3356,
"total_tokens": 30916
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio is positioned defensively, favoring dividend-paying equities and healthcare. This allocation seeks to mitigate downside risk in a volatile market environment while capturing potential upside from defensive sectors.
Defensive positioning with a focus on dividend equities and healthcare.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued economic growth and positive earnings surprises.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,316.15, down 1.5% on July 29.",
"Through July 29, the S&P 500 was up 6.9% in 2026."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant negative surprise in economic data or earnings.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A sharp economic slowdown or a resurgence in inflation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and PPI data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Investors seeking defensive yield in a volatile market.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND return_5s is 2.83%.",
"DIVIDEND active_return_21s is 7.51%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp re-acceleration in inflation or a hawkish shift in Fed expectations.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A rapid increase in interest rates making dividend yields less attractive.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and PPI data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive characteristics and positive earnings momentum.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE return_5s is 4.27%.",
"HEALTHCARE active_return_21s is 4.98%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant negative earnings surprises or regulatory changes.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Regulatory changes or negative clinical trial results.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings reports and forward guidance"
},
{
"continuation_case": "A rebound in mega-cap tech earnings and a dovish shift in Fed expectations.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TECHNOLOGY return_5s is -7.60%.",
"TECHNOLOGY active_return_21s is -8.60%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant negative surprise in tech earnings or a hawkish shift in Fed expectations.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Continued weakness in tech earnings and higher interest rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results on August 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "A flight to safety amid economic uncertainty.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"LONG_TREASURY return_5s is -0.71%.",
"LONG_TREASURY active_return_21s is -3.35%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp re-acceleration in inflation or a hawkish shift in Fed expectations.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A resurgence in inflation or stronger-than-expected economic growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and PPI data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued geopolitical uncertainty and a weaker US dollar.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD return_5s is -2.12%.",
"GOLD active_return_21s is 2.23%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp increase in real interest rates or a significant strengthening of the US dollar.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A stronger US dollar and higher real interest rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and PPI data"
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.85,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden shift in market sentiment favoring high-growth technology stocks.",
"Unexpectedly strong economic data leading to higher interest rates.",
"Sector-specific risks in healthcare, such as regulatory changes or negative clinical trial results."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp re-acceleration in inflation or a hawkish shift in Fed expectations.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities offer defensive characteristics and have shown recent relative strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and PPI data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant negative earnings surprises or regulatory changes.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare provides defensive exposure with positive recent momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings reports and forward guidance"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is positioned defensively, favoring dividend-paying equities and healthcare. This allocation seeks to mitigate downside risk in a volatile market environment while capturing potential upside from defensive sectors.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive positioning with a focus on dividend equities and healthcare.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16831,
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}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio avoids weak mega-cap technology concentration and emphasizes breadth, defensive/value sectors, financials, and a limited oil catalyst. All selected active holdings have base forecasts above SPY and cluster exposure outside SPY/CASH stays within the 50% cap.
Base case is a one-month continuation of rotation away from cap-weighted growth into equal-weight, dividend, defensive healthcare, financials, and geopolitically supported oil. Main expected alpha source is SPY’s recent weakness and Nasdaq drawdown versus stronger breadth in non-mega-cap and defensive/value areas.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "A modest rebound could follow the recent pullback if upcoming GDP, PCE, CPI, and earnings data do not worsen growth or inflation concerns.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.5% on July 29 and was 3.72% below its 52-week high.",
"SPY return_5s was -2.40% and return_21s was -1.56%.",
"Nasdaq ended 9.8% below its prior-month record, indicating pressure on large-cap growth leadership."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks materially below the recent drawdown while equal-weight and defensive sectors continue to outperform.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Concentration risk remains elevated if mega-cap technology weakness continues and breadth favors equal-weight or defensive sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Advance GDP, June PCE, July employment, July CPI/PPI, Fed minutes, and major technology earnings before August 28."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent broadening away from cap-weighted mega-cap leadership can persist if upcoming data support solid activity without reigniting inflation fears.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP return_5s was 1.42% versus SPY at -2.40%.",
"RSP active_return_21s was 2.82% and distance from 52-week high was only -0.90%.",
"RSP volatility_63s was 11.21%, below SPY's 13.31%, with max_drawdown_63s of -2.04%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points over the first half of the window or breadth deteriorates with positive asset share falling further.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "A sharp recovery in mega-cap technology would likely restore SPY leadership and reduce equal-weight alpha.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI, July employment, GDP/PCE updates, and continued rotation away from mega-cap concentration before August 28."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dividend equities can keep attracting flows if investors prefer profitable, lower-volatility equities amid elevated inflation and policy uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND return_5s was 2.83% and active_return_21s was 7.51%.",
"DIVIDEND volatility_63s was 12.12%, below SPY's 13.31%.",
"DIVIDEND was only -0.18% from its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities lose their relative bid and fall more than 3% while SPY stabilizes or resumes leadership.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A risk-on growth rebound or rapid rise in yields could reverse the defensive/value bid.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July inflation and labor-market releases could reinforce demand for profitable lower-beta equity exposure."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive sector rotation can continue if labor or confidence data keep investors cautious while broad equity indices remain volatile.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE return_5s was 4.27% and active_return_21s was 4.98%.",
"HEALTHCARE was only -0.61% from its 52-week high.",
"Its max_drawdown_63s was -3.74%, shallower than SPY's -4.49%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare breaks below its recent relative strength and underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Healthcare could lag if investors rotate aggressively back into higher-beta growth or cyclical sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Risk-off or defensive sector rotation around July CPI/PPI, employment, and Fed minutes."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Financials may benefit if activity remains solid and higher long yields support net-interest-margin expectations without a credit shock.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS active_return_21s was 7.07% and return_5s was 1.12%.",
"FINANCIALS max_drawdown_63s was -2.42%, shallower than SPY's -4.49%.",
"The ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.68% from 4.61% on July 29."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit or deposit concerns emerge via the loan survey or financials underperform SPY by more than 2 percentage points.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak labor data, tighter credit conditions, or curve stress could undermine banks and insurers.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, July employment, and rate-curve reaction to inflation data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply-risk premium can persist or expand while tanker access remains unresolved and energy markets focus on supply disruption risk.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"October Brent crude settled at $88.09 per barrel, up 7.3%.",
"Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the Middle East conflict remained unresolved.",
"OIL active_return_21s was 22.32% and prior_105s_active_return was 34.42%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Geopolitical risk premium fades, tanker access normalizes, or crude gives back the recent breakout with a 10% decline from entry.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Oil is highly volatile and could reverse quickly if conflict risk eases or demand fears dominate.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East conflict and unresolved Strait of Hormuz tanker access before the August 28 close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap growth could rebound if upcoming Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia-related sentiment restores confidence in AI and cloud spending.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"NASDAQ100 return_5s was -6.18% and active_return_21s was -7.05%.",
"NASDAQ100 prior_105s_active_return was 7.89%, but it was -11.22% from its 52-week high.",
"Microsoft reported strong cloud metrics, but Meta reported net income down 14% and high forecast capex."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "NASDAQ100 fails to reclaim relative performance versus SPY after the first major technology earnings releases.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "High beta, elevated drawdown, and recent underperformance could persist if earnings or rates disappoint.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple and Amazon results, July inflation data, and Nvidia results after the U.S. close on August 26."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Long Treasuries could rebound if labor data weaken further or inflation releases surprise lower.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"LONG_TREASURY return_21s was -4.91% in the mechanical market state.",
"The ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.68% from 4.61%.",
"FOMC held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, but three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year yields continue rising after the inflation data or FOMC minutes reinforce hawkish policy risk.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, hawkish dissents, and rising long yields can continue to pressure duration.",
"time_window_catalyst": "June PCE, July CPI/PPI, July employment, and Fed minutes."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.74,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Mega-cap technology rebounds sharply after Apple, Amazon, or Nvidia results, causing SPY to outperform the active portfolio.",
"Inflation or GDP data reprice rates higher and pressure dividend, healthcare, and financial exposures simultaneously.",
"Oil reverses if Middle East tensions ease or demand concerns dominate, hurting the energy allocation.",
"Weak payrolls or loan survey deterioration could damage financials and broader cyclical risk appetite."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points over the first half of the window or breadth deteriorates with positive asset share falling further.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Equal-weight exposure benefits from recent breadth improvement versus cap-weighted SPY while keeping lower 63-day volatility and shallower drawdown than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI, July employment, GDP/PCE updates, and continued rotation away from mega-cap concentration before August 28."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities lose their relative bid and fall more than 3% while SPY stabilizes or resumes leadership.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities show strong recent active performance, low volatility, and near-high price positioning, fitting a defensive/value rotation if growth leadership remains under pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July inflation and labor-market releases could reinforce demand for profitable lower-beta equity exposure."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare breaks below its recent relative strength and underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare has defensive characteristics, positive recent active return, and shallow drawdown while broad equity breadth has weakened.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Risk-off or defensive sector rotation around July CPI/PPI, employment, and Fed minutes."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit or deposit concerns emerge via the loan survey or financials underperform SPY by more than 2 percentage points.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials have strong recent active return and low drawdown, with potential support from solid activity and a higher ten-year yield despite credit and labor risks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, July employment, and rate-curve reaction to inflation data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Geopolitical risk premium fades, tanker access normalizes, or crude gives back the recent breakout with a 10% decline from entry.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Oil has the strongest direct near-term geopolitical catalyst, with Brent up and Strait of Hormuz access unresolved, but position size is limited because volatility and drawdown are very high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East conflict and unresolved Strait of Hormuz tanker access before the August 28 close."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.34,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio avoids weak mega-cap technology concentration and emphasizes breadth, defensive/value sectors, financials, and a limited oil catalyst. All selected active holdings have base forecasts above SPY and cluster exposure outside SPY/CASH stays within the 50% cap.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Base case is a one-month continuation of rotation away from cap-weighted growth into equal-weight, dividend, defensive healthcare, financials, and geopolitically supported oil. Main expected alpha source is SPY’s recent weakness and Nasdaq drawdown versus stronger breadth in non-mega-cap and defensive/value areas.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"latency_seconds": 55.567369092023,
"output_tokens": 2986,
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}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio favors broadening U.S. equity leadership and defensive sectors while adding a low-volatility dollar diversifier. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no capped cluster exceeds 35%.
SPY faces concentrated growth weakness and elevated policy uncertainty. Equal weight, healthcare, real estate, and the dollar offer stronger one-month base cases supported by relative strength, defensiveness, or event-driven rate sensitivity.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid activity and strong mega-cap cloud growth could stabilize the index after its pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY fell 2.40% over five sessions and 1.56% over 21 sessions.",
"The S&P 500 remained up 6.9% in 2026, but a majority of U.S. stocks fell on July 29.",
"Inflation remained above target and the FOMC vote included three preferences for a rate increase."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -6.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY regains its prior-month high with improving breadth and declining long-term yields.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Concentrated technology weakness, elevated inflation, and weak payroll revisions could extend the decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "U.S. GDP, PCE, employment, CPI/PPI, Federal Reserve minutes, and major technology earnings through August 28."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Leadership continues broadening away from mega-cap growth as lower-volatility constituents hold up.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP gained 1.42% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 2.82 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"Its 63-session volatility was 11.21%, below SPY's 13.31%, with a shallower drawdown.",
"RSP was only 0.90% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points over a rolling five-session period.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "A sharp technology rebound restores cap-weighted concentration leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July labor and inflation data plus August GDP and PCE updates could sustain market broadening."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive demand persists as labor data soften and policy uncertainty remains elevated.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare gained 4.27% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 4.98 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"It was only 0.61% below its 52-week high with a 3.74% maximum drawdown.",
"Its 0.318 beta provides defensive participation."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses its recent relative lead and closes more than 5% below the entry close.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A risk-on rotation into growth and cyclicals unwinds recent defensive outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July labor and inflation releases may reinforce demand for defensive earnings exposure."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Softer inflation readings reduce rate pressure while defensive income demand persists.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Real estate gained 2.11% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 3.87 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"It was 0.11% below its 52-week high with a 3.38% maximum drawdown.",
"June CPI fell 0.4% month over month, though broader inflation measures remained elevated."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The ten-year Treasury yield rises materially above 4.68% while XLRE falls more than 5% from entry.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "A renewed rise in long yields compresses real-estate valuations and reverses the breakout.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI and July PCE could lower rate expectations before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Restrictive U.S. policy and geopolitical uncertainty sustain relative-rate and safe-haven demand.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"The dollar's quality evidence score was 0.649, supported by high low-volatility and shallow-drawdown ranks.",
"UUP had 5.01% volatility and a 0.98% maximum drawdown over 63 sessions.",
"The FOMC held rates at 3.50%-3.75%, with three members preferring an increase."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "UUP closes more than 2% below entry alongside a sustained decline in U.S. rate differentials.",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "Weak U.S. data or a hawkish Bank of Japan narrows rate differentials and lifts competing currencies.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan communication and U.S. GDP, employment, CPI, and PCE releases may widen relative-rate support."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior leadership and Nvidia's August 26 results could trigger a high-beta rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Semiconductors had the highest prior active rank and a 0.754 quality evidence score.",
"They fell 14.09% over five sessions and underperformed SPY by 18.66 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"Volatility was 53.62% and the 63-session drawdown reached 24.62%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 18,
"forecast_low_pct": -15,
"invalidation_condition": "The sector fails to stabilize before Nvidia results or makes a new 63-session low afterward.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "The severe drawdown continues as valuation and earnings expectations reset.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia reports after the August 26 close, leaving one full session before the scoring exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Unresolved Middle East supply risk keeps a geopolitical premium embedded in crude.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Oil outperformed SPY by 22.32 percentage points over 21 sessions and had 34.42% prior active return.",
"Brent settled at $88.09, up 7.3%, amid unresolved Strait of Hormuz access.",
"USO volatility was 55.85% with a 32.49% maximum drawdown."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 16,
"forecast_low_pct": -14,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent's geopolitical premium fades and USO closes more than 8% below entry.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation or demand concerns unwind the crowded 21-session surge.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Any change in Strait of Hormuz tanker access or the Middle East conflict before August 28."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak labor and softer inflation data could drive a duration rebound from depressed levels.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT fell 4.91% over 21 sessions and remained 7.06% below its 52-week high.",
"The ten-year yield rose to 4.68% while payroll growth slowed to 57,000.",
"Its recent pullback rank was 0.821, but prior active return remained negative."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "The ten-year yield rises above 4.90% and TLT makes a new 63-session low.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Persistent inflation and hawkish policy expectations push long yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI, Federal Reserve minutes, and July PCE through August 26."
}
],
"confidence": 0.61,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.93,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sharp mega-cap technology rebound could restore SPY leadership and hurt equal-weight alpha.",
"Hot July inflation or hawkish Federal Reserve minutes could pressure real estate and equities.",
"A rapid de-escalation in the Middle East or dovish U.S. data could weaken the dollar.",
"Recent defensive-sector strength could reverse if risk appetite broadens into high-beta growth."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points over a rolling five-session period.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Broadening leadership, positive relative performance, and lower volatility favor equal weight over concentrated SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July labor and inflation data plus August GDP and PCE updates could sustain market broadening."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses its recent relative lead and closes more than 5% below the entry close.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Recent defensive strength and shallow drawdown offer favorable one-month asymmetry amid macro uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July labor and inflation releases may reinforce demand for defensive earnings exposure."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The ten-year Treasury yield rises materially above 4.68% while XLRE falls more than 5% from entry.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Positive relative trend and near-high positioning provide upside if upcoming inflation data eases rate pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI and July PCE could lower rate expectations before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "UUP closes more than 2% below entry alongside a sustained decline in U.S. rate differentials.",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"rationale": "Low volatility, shallow drawdown, and restrictive relative U.S. policy provide diversification against equity and geopolitical shocks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan communication and U.S. GDP, employment, CPI, and PCE releases may widen relative-rate support."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.53,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors broadening U.S. equity leadership and defensive sectors while adding a low-volatility dollar diversifier. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no capped cluster exceeds 35%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY faces concentrated growth weakness and elevated policy uncertainty. Equal weight, healthcare, real estate, and the dollar offer stronger one-month base cases supported by relative strength, defensiveness, or event-driven rate sensitivity.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15280,
"latency_seconds": 39.94056737492792,
"output_tokens": 2235,
"reasoning_tokens": 0,
"total_tokens": 17515
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Defensive and equal-weight equities selected for base forecasts exceeding SPY amid recent market weakness and upcoming inflation data.
Four holdings in defensive and diversified equity clusters with base returns above SPY forecast; 100% allocation in 25% increments.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued equity weakness from rate uncertainty",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed down 2.4% over 5 days",
"S&P 500 up 6.9% YTD through July 29"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY rises above prior month record",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Positive GDP and earnings surprise",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and second-quarter GDP"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND returned 2.83% over 5 days",
"Low volatility rank 0.776"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI above 3.8% or sharp equity rebound",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Broad risk-on rally",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and industrial production data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows continue",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE returned 4.27% over 5 days",
"Shallow drawdown rank 0.731"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.2,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Growth sector leadership returns",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and GDP data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak consumer data persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"CONSUMER_STAPLES returned 3.53% over 5 days",
"Consumer confidence fell to 90.8"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Retail sales exceed 1% monthly",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Retail sales accelerate",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and retail sales"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation holds",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE returned 0.81% over 5 days",
"Prior active rank 0.821"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Nasdaq rises more than 4%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth stocks rebound sharply",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan and earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Equal-weight outperformance continues",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 returned 1.42% over 5 days",
"RSP minus SPY 21s positive 2.82%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.9,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech mega-caps surge more than 5%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap concentration resumes",
"time_window_catalyst": "Second-quarter GDP and earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rates remain elevated",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Ten-year yield rose to 4.68%",
"FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Two-year yield falls below 4.0%",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Rate cut expectations rise",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes and CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dollar strength from rate differential",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"US_DOLLAR returned -0.11% over 5 days",
"Quality evidence score 0.649"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar index falls below 100",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "Global risk appetite improves",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECB and BoJ policy"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.925,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Inflation reacceleration from energy prices",
"Stronger than expected GDP boosting growth stocks",
"FOMC signaling further rate hikes"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI above 3.8% or sharp equity rebound",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Defensive equity with recent outperformance and lower volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and industrial production data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with positive recent returns and low drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and GDP data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Retail sales exceed 1% monthly",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Defensive equity benefiting from weak consumer confidence.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and retail sales"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech mega-caps surge more than 5%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Broad equity exposure with recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Second-quarter GDP and earnings"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.425,
"portfolio_rationale": "Defensive and equal-weight equities selected for base forecasts exceeding SPY amid recent market weakness and upcoming inflation data.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Four holdings in defensive and diversified equity clusters with base returns above SPY forecast; 100% allocation in 25% increments.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15510,
"latency_seconds": 15.53661194909364,
"output_tokens": 1697,
"reasoning_tokens": 682,
"total_tokens": 17889
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio emphasizes recent relative winners in value, equal-weight, healthcare, and energy that cleared the SPY base hurdle after the growth/tech drawdown, while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Allocations balance defensive and cyclical exposures for the one-month window under elevated policy and geopolitical uncertainty.
SPY base is modest given the late-July decline and mixed macro prints; selected holdings show stronger recent active returns, shallower relative drawdowns in several cases, and catalysts that can sustain rotation. Equal-weight and value capture breadth, healthcare adds defense, energy retains geopolitical support.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Stabilization after the July 29 selloff plus solid activity description from FOMC allows modest recovery into August data.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.5% on July 29 at 7316.15 and was down 2.40% over 5 sessions",
"FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% with elevated uncertainty cited partly due to Middle East",
"YTD S&P up 6.9% through July 29 with Nasdaq 9.8% below prior-month record"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes more than 4% below July 29 entry before August 28",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further downside if June PCE/GDP or August CPI surprises hot or geopolitical risk escalates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP/PCE, August employment, CPI, and Nvidia results"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid persists amid elevated inflation readings and policy uncertainty, extending recent outperformance.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE return_5s +4.27% and active_return_21s +4.98% with distance_52w_high only -0.61%",
"Quality evidence score 0.483 with relatively shallow drawdown rank",
"Consumer confidence and labor data mixed but defensive sectors held up on July 29 breadth weakness"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return versus SPY turns negative by over 2% on a closing basis",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation back to growth if data softens and rates expectations ease sharply.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment situation August 7 and July CPI August 12-13"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Post-selloff preference for lower-volatility value names continues as mega-cap growth digests losses.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE return_5s +0.81% and active_return_21s +4.35% with max_drawdown_63s only -2.40%",
"Quality evidence prior active rank 0.821 and shallow drawdown rank 0.836",
"RSP minus SPY positive 3.83% over 5 sessions indicating breadth/value tilt"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD underperforms SPY by more than 1.5% over any 5-session stretch",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth reacceleration if tech earnings or AI narrative reasserts dominance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Federal Reserve minutes August 18-19 and second GDP estimate August 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth recovery after concentrated mega-cap weakness sustains equal-weight leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 return_5s +1.42% and active_return_21s +2.82% with volatility_63s 11.21%",
"rsp_minus_spy_5s +3.83% and rsp_minus_spy_21s +2.82%",
"Quality evidence score 0.619 with strong shallow-drawdown rank 0.881"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP closes below its July 29 level while SPY makes new highs",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Return of mega-cap dominance if Nasdaq stabilizes and outperforms on earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple and Amazon results July 30-31 plus Nvidia August 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical risk premium in oil supports energy equities through the scoring window.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY active_return_21s +11.02% while October Brent settled at 88.09 up 7.3%",
"Strait of Hormuz tanker access and Middle East conflict remained unresolved",
"FOMC statement cited Middle East conflict as elevating outlook uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLE loses more than half its 21-session active outperformance versus SPY",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Rapid de-escalation or demand concerns reverse the oil price gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East developments and any inventory or supply headlines before August 28"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oversold bounce if upcoming mega-cap earnings stabilize sentiment.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TECHNOLOGY return_5s -7.60% and active_return_21s -8.60% with max_drawdown_63s -15.86%",
"Nvidia declined 3.6% and KLA 10.8% on July 29; Nasdaq 9.8% below prior-month record",
"High prior active rank but recent deep pullback and elevated volatility_63s 33.43%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLK makes new 63-session lows on rising volume",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Further de-rating if growth concerns or higher-for-longer rates persist.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple/Amazon results and Nvidia earnings August 26"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows continue if labor market or confidence softens further.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"CONSUMER_STAPLES return_5s +3.53% and active_return_21s +5.10%",
"July consumer confidence fell to 90.8; retail sales monthly change not statistically significant",
"Quality evidence score 0.431 with defensive characteristics"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLP active outperformance versus SPY fully retraces within two weeks",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Cyclical rebound if growth data surprises positively and risk appetite returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report August 7 and consumer-related data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sustained geopolitical premium keeps crude elevated into late August.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"OIL active_return_21s +22.32% and prior_105s_active_return +34.42% but return_5s -1.80%",
"October Brent at 88.09 up 7.3%; Hormuz access unresolved",
"High volatility_63s 55.85% and max_drawdown_63s -32.49%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "USO closes down more than 10% from July 29 entry",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Supply normalization or demand destruction triggers sharp mean reversion after large prior gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical headlines and any OPEC or inventory reports before exit"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.245,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp reversal back into mega-cap tech/growth if Nvidia or AI-related earnings surprise positively",
"Escalation or de-escalation in Middle East conflict causing oil volatility that hurts energy allocation",
"Hotter-than-expected inflation or labor data prompting rate-hike fears and broad equity pressure",
"Failure of equal-weight/value leadership if market breadth collapses again"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms SPY by more than 2% on a weekly close or negative surprise in labor data driving broad risk-off",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Recent relative strength and defensive characteristics amid elevated uncertainty and mixed growth data support outperformance vs cap-weighted SPY over the one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report and CPI/PPI releases in early-mid August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Value-to-growth relative reverses sharply with Nasdaq reclaiming prior highs before exit",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value leadership and lower drawdown profile versus growth/tech after the late-July selloff provide a higher base-case path than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Fed minutes August 18-19 and second-quarter GDP revisions"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY spread turns negative by more than 1.5% on a 5-session basis",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Equal-weight breadth advantage and positive active returns versus SPY in recent windows favor continued rotation away from mega-cap concentration.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Corporate earnings from Apple/Amazon and Nvidia later in window"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude settles below 80 or energy sector active return turns deeply negative versus SPY",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Geopolitical premium from unresolved Middle East/Hormuz issues and prior active strength support elevated base return versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing Middle East developments and oil inventory/price action through August"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.945,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio emphasizes recent relative winners in value, equal-weight, healthcare, and energy that cleared the SPY base hurdle after the growth/tech drawdown, while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Allocations balance defensive and cyclical exposures for the one-month window under elevated policy and geopolitical uncertainty.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base is modest given the late-July decline and mixed macro prints; selected holdings show stronger recent active returns, shallower relative drawdowns in several cases, and catalysts that can sustain rotation. Equal-weight and value capture breadth, healthcare adds defense, energy retains geopolitical support.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16361,
"latency_seconds": 52.65233585005626,
"output_tokens": 2884,
"reasoning_tokens": 511,
"total_tokens": 19756
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%S&P 500 (SPY)20% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)30%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15%Crude Oil (USO)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)50%Healthcare Sector (XLV)50% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%Crude Oil (USO)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)20%US Dollar (UUP)20% | 0.61 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-29 | 236.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-29 | 93.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-29 | 27.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-29 | 29.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-29 | 109.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-29 | 147.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-29 | 36.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-29 | 35.47 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-29 | 55.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-29 | 17.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-29 | 59.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-29 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-29 | 55.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-29 | 109.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-29 | 111.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-29 | 87.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-29 | 38.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-29 | 129.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-29 | 88.79 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-29 | 68.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-29 | 94.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-29 | 56.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-29 | 58.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-29 | 215.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-29 | 14.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-29 | 105.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-29 | 88.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-29 | 56.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-29 | 76.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-29 | 166.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-29 | 79.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-29 | 49.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-29 | 176.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-29 | 93.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-29 | 47.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-29 | 106.22 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-29 | 89.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-29 | 56.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-29 | 82.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-29 | 51.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-29 | 97.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-29 | 75.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-29 | 105.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-29 | 661.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-29 | 45.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-29 | 76.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-29 | 729.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-29 | 504.22 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-29 | 91.64 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-29 | 51.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-29 | 92.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-29 | 47.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-29 | 62.08 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-29 | 144.21 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-29 | 89.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-29 | 166.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-29 | 360.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-29 | 107.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-29 | 47.90 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-29 | 97.55 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-29 | 33.83 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-29 | 28.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-29 | 114.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-29 | 249.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-29 | 77.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-29 | 74.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-29 | 283.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-29 | 288.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-29 | 221.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-29 | 44.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | f4a01f6bcc5e...acd01220 |
| manifest.yaml | 5cbd93a3334f...8e28219d |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 732511e3d986...85e772c4 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | fdf06c138c06...63f97b2e |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 1aab17ea48c3...81dd2a14 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | ac01c0937644...76528ea0 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 668b4b41dea4...d65f8727 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 4d77b56a7cc9...d7ff93ad |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |