Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 64.4 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +53.12% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +66.25%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Healthcare Sector (XLV) is the largest aggregate allocation at +25.31%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-28 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-monthly-20260728-clean
32,137 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-28-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-28
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-29T07:56:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-29T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-28
- Exit date: 2026-08-28
- Entry rule: Use the Tuesday, July 28, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Friday, August 28, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-29T07:56:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 28, the S&P 500 closed at 7,428.78, up 0.2%; the Dow closed at 52,747.32, up 1.0%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,876.91, down 0.2%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,953.80, up 0.2%.
- Most U.S. stocks rose. Coca-Cola gained 5.0%, Sherwin-Williams gained 8.3%, and Illinois Tool Works gained 3.6%. Micron fell 8.9%, AMD fell 8.1%, and Applied Materials fell 7.8%.
- The Nasdaq traded as much as 9.3% below its prior-month record. Through July 28, the S&P 500 was up 8.5% in 2026, the Dow 9.7%, the Nasdaq 7.0%, and the Russell 2000 19.0%.
- A secondary public market-data summary reported a July 28 VIX close of 18.21, down 2.46%. This was not an official Cboe historical settlement.
## Rates, Inflation, and Policy
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended July 28 at 4.60%, down from 4.65% late July 27.
- The federal-funds target range was 3.50% to 3.75%. The July 28-29 FOMC meeting concludes with a statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern and press conference at 2:30 p.m. on July 29. July 28 market pricing assigned 31.5% probability to an increase; this was market-implied, not a Federal Reserve forecast.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. Energy fell 5.7% on the month.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices fell 1.4% while services prices rose 0.2%.
- May PCE inflation was 0.4% month over month and 4.1% over twelve months; core PCE was 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. June PCE and advance second-quarter GDP are scheduled for July 30; outcomes were unavailable at the cutoff.
## Economy and Cross-Assets
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%.
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Survey responses were collected July 1-22; current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. The monthly estimate's ±0.4 percentage-point margin did not establish a statistically significant monthly change.
- June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%; orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%; and computers and electronic-product orders rose 3.1%.
- June new-home sales ran at a 628,000 annual rate, with 9.3 months of supply. The reported monthly and annual sales changes had sampling margins wider than the estimates.
- October Brent crude settled at $82.08 per barrel, down 4.4%. Negotiations over Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the U.S.-Iran conflict remained unresolved.
- South Korea's Kospi fell 10.8%, with temporary trading halts during the session.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged on July 23. June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 28 Close
- July 29-31: FOMC statement and press conference; advance second-quarter U.S. GDP; June Personal Income and Outlays; second-quarter Employment Cost Index; Bank of Japan policy communication; Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil results.
- August 3-4: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; June U.S. international trade; June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation and June consumer credit.
- August 12-14: July CPI, PPI, and retail sales.
- August 18-19: July U.S. housing starts and industrial production; Federal Reserve minutes for the July 28-29 meeting.
- August 25-26: July U.S. new-home sales; second estimate of second-quarter GDP; July Personal Income and Outlays; July advance durable-goods orders; Nvidia results after the U.S. close.
- August 28: monthly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-28-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-28-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-28'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-29T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-29T07:56:14.470538+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Tuesday, July 28, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Friday, August 28, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-28'
exit_date: '2026-08-28'
created_at: '2026-07-29T07:56:14.470538+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-29T07:56:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Tuesday, July 28, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 28, the S&P 500 closed at 7,428.78, up 0.2%; the Dow closed at 52,747.32, up 1.0%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,876.91, down 0.2%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,953.80, up 0.2%.
- Most U.S. stocks rose. Coca-Cola gained 5.0%, Sherwin-Williams gained 8.3%, and Illinois Tool Works gained 3.6%. Micron fell 8.9%, AMD fell 8.1%, and Applied Materials fell 7.8%.
- The Nasdaq traded as much as 9.3% below its prior-month record. Through July 28, the S&P 500 was up 8.5% in 2026, the Dow 9.7%, the Nasdaq 7.0%, and the Russell 2000 19.0%.
- A secondary public market-data summary reported a July 28 VIX close of 18.21, down 2.46%. This was not an official Cboe historical settlement.
## Rates, Inflation, and Policy
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended July 28 at 4.60%, down from 4.65% late July 27.
- The federal-funds target range was 3.50% to 3.75%. The July 28-29 FOMC meeting concludes with a statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern and press conference at 2:30 p.m. on July 29. July 28 market pricing assigned 31.5% probability to an increase; this was market-implied, not a Federal Reserve forecast.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. Energy fell 5.7% on the month.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices fell 1.4% while services prices rose 0.2%.
- May PCE inflation was 0.4% month over month and 4.1% over twelve months; core PCE was 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. June PCE and advance second-quarter GDP are scheduled for July 30; outcomes were unavailable at the cutoff.
## Economy and Cross-Assets
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%.
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Survey responses were collected July 1-22; current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. The monthly estimate's ±0.4 percentage-point margin did not establish a statistically significant monthly change.
- June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%; orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%; and computers and electronic-product orders rose 3.1%.
- June new-home sales ran at a 628,000 annual rate, with 9.3 months of supply. The reported monthly and annual sales changes had sampling margins wider than the estimates.
- October Brent crude settled at $82.08 per barrel, down 4.4%. Negotiations over Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the U.S.-Iran conflict remained unresolved.
- South Korea's Kospi fell 10.8%, with temporary trading halts during the session.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged on July 23. June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 28 Close
- July 29-31: FOMC statement and press conference; advance second-quarter U.S. GDP; June Personal Income and Outlays; second-quarter Employment Cost Index; Bank of Japan policy communication; Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, Chevron, and Exxon Mobil results.
- August 3-4: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; June U.S. international trade; June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey; June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation and June consumer credit.
- August 12-14: July CPI, PPI, and retail sales.
- August 18-19: July U.S. housing starts and industrial production; Federal Reserve minutes for the July 28-29 meeting.
- August 25-26: July U.S. new-home sales; second estimate of second-quarter GDP; July Personal Income and Outlays; July advance durable-goods orders; Nvidia results after the U.S. close.
- August 28: monthly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"manifest.yaml": "5fc59e3b56e2ce4e35761a6c35efa24f05c3198ad564dc5c89247fc3af05c6e5",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "62077ed1b1e5742cfe3a09500e460cf72b151de40ab7c4cbe19882514c3ef978",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "598b57c3f3aa8fa62de071806edea4321025a3aa04b34c180e750415ec5f649e",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "aaee500489f3d66e56fd9333c66277d1c5cb0f6167b450bee6a9965d182cb596",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "4157b6a01822ac07b56bee66a92730635ace14dae9dea9a00cdb16c95dfcdd92",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "37713f37bf49053e6e2622dae013a6c5a993e1c4b5435f12a856b084ddc17d38",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "20d90cbbf3967f09eff805ad8f30ced0570a8abc545df772c6d7069e5266ef59",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "ef3cf65c548d3cc3229f74393dc61292363e4cb8a6e609b4a75e4c2062b6698e",
"submission_schema.json": "722025ee45d276e3f4d132a6be281de790a0c5478dc0051f23ade0524ff79571"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-28-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-28-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-28-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-28-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-28-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-28-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-28-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-28-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Rotation from stretched high-beta tech into breadth, value, financials, and healthcare, all showing recent relative strength, low drawdowns, and 52-week-high proximity, with rate and macro catalysts (FOMC, CPI) likely to reward lower-beta breadth over concentrated growth.
Overweight equal-weight, value, financials, and healthcare versus a small SPY anchor to capture the ongoing breadth rotation while tech corrects from a ~9% Nasdaq drawdown.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Disinflation in CPI and solid earnings sustain a grind higher.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 up 8.5% YTD, -2.21% from 52w high",
"10y yield 4.60%; 31.5% market-implied hike probability at Jul 29 FOMC",
"June core CPI flat m/m, 2.6% y/y"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Fed hikes and signals more tightening; SPY breaks below recent drawdown lows.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish hike or weak payrolls trigger a broad pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC Jul 29; mega-cap earnings; Aug 12-14 CPI; Nvidia Aug 25."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth rotation continues as concentrated tech corrects from record levels.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP-SPY +3.31% over 5 sessions, +1.88% over 21 sessions",
"RSP at 52-week high, lowest 63s volatility (11.09%) among equities",
"Dow +1.0% vs Nasdaq -0.2% on Jul 28 indicates breadth rotation"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap tech reasserts leadership with RSP-SPY spread turning negative for two-plus weeks.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings beat and reassert cap-weighted leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC Jul 29 and Aug 12-14 CPI/PPI supporting rotation into equal-weight breadth."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation persists with tech ~9-13% off highs and rates elevated.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+1.86% over 5 sessions, +2.19% 21s active return, at 52-week high",
"Prior 105s active return +5.77% shows established relative trend",
"63s volatility 12.00%, drawdown only -2.40%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp tech-led rebound restoring growth leadership; IWD active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound after tech correction reprices value underweight.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued rotation through FOMC and July CPI; energy/financials earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Curve and rotation tailwinds continue supporting bank profitability.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+5.89% 21s active return, best among sectors; at 52-week high",
"-2.42% max drawdown, lowest among sector options",
"Fed funds 3.50-3.75% with 10y at 4.60% supports net interest margins"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish surprise hike or credit deterioration in loan survey pressuring banks.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit tightening in loan survey or hawkish hike hurts banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision Jul 29; Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows continue amid tech correction and softening confidence data.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+4.37% over 5 sessions, +2.69% 21s active return, at 52-week high",
"Low beta to SPY (0.316) cushions against tech drawdown spillover"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rally rotating money out of defensives; XLV underperforms SPY by >1%.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally pulls flows out of defensives.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows if tech drawdown deepens through August data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Nvidia results Aug 25 could rekindle the AI trade before exit.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-9.33% over 5 sessions, -15.04% 21s active return, -20.83% drawdown",
"Micron -8.9%, AMD -8.1%, Applied Materials -7.8% on Jul 28",
"53% volatility, beta 2.30 to SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -12,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued chip-stock selling and Nvidia disappointment; too volatile for a base-case bet.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Downtrend and heavy single-day losses suggest ongoing distribution.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia earnings Aug 25 after the close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap earnings (MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN) could stabilize the index.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq traded up to 9.3% below its prior-month record",
"-6.02% 21s active return; beta 1.39"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Earnings beats with strong guidance reversing the tech drawdown quickly.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Rotation out of growth continues; correction extends.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings Jul 29-31; Nvidia Aug 25."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls or soft CPI could rally duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10y at 4.60%; -4.84% 21s active return",
"31.5% priced probability of a hike at Jul 29 FOMC",
"Headline CPI still 3.5% y/y, PPI 5.5% y/y"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Fed hikes with hawkish guidance; base case below SPY hurdle.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A hike or sticky inflation pushes yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC Jul 29; Aug 7 jobs; Aug 12 CPI."
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.46,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Surprise dovish outcome or strong mega-cap earnings reignite tech leadership, reversing the rotation",
"A hawkish 25bp hike (31.5% priced) hits all equities including financials",
"July CPI reaccelerates, lifting yields and pressuring the whole portfolio",
"Value/breadth trade is crowded after strong 5-session run and mean-reverts"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap tech reasserts leadership with RSP-SPY spread turning negative for two-plus weeks.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Broadening breadth: RSP outperformed SPY by 3.31% over 5 sessions with low volatility and 0% drawdown from 52w high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC Jul 29 and Aug 12-14 CPI/PPI supporting rotation into equal-weight breadth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp tech-led rebound restoring growth leadership; IWD active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value at 52-week high with positive 21s active return (+2.19%), low volatility, benefiting from rotation out of stretched tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued rotation through FOMC and July CPI; energy/financials earnings."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish surprise hike or credit deterioration in loan survey pressuring banks.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strongest 21s active return among sectors (+5.89%), at 52-week high, lowest sector drawdown; benefits from steep curve and value rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision Jul 29; Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rally rotating money out of defensives; XLV underperforms SPY by >1%.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive with positive momentum: +4.37% over 5 sessions, at 52-week high, low beta cushioning tech volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows if tech drawdown deepens through August data releases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish Fed hike plus weak payrolls triggering broad drawdown.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark anchor for residual diversification.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC Jul 29, mega-cap earnings, Nvidia Aug 25, jobs/CPI prints."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.46,
"portfolio_rationale": "Rotation from stretched high-beta tech into breadth, value, financials, and healthcare, all showing recent relative strength, low drawdowns, and 52-week-high proximity, with rate and macro catalysts (FOMC, CPI) likely to reward lower-beta breadth over concentrated growth.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight equal-weight, value, financials, and healthcare versus a small SPY anchor to capture the ongoing breadth rotation while tech corrects from a ~9% Nasdaq drawdown.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27345,
"latency_seconds": 56.003053553868085,
"output_tokens": 4091,
"total_tokens": 31436
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward defensive and value sectors showing recent leadership while mega-cap tech corrects hard (semis -15% active, Nasdaq -6% active). Financials and healthcare offer strong relative trend with shallow drawdowns.
Rotation trade favoring value/defensive sectors over growth given the sharp tech drawdown and macro uncertainty around FOMC.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market grinds higher on stable rates.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY up 8.5% YTD",
"5s return -0.99%, 21s +1.63%",
"VIX 18.21"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity drawdown below recent lows.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "FOMC hike or weak GDP triggers selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, GDP, August CPI."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sector leadership continues amid stable rates.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 21s +5.89%",
"shallow drawdown -2.42%",
"at 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit stress emerges.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3-4."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"5s +4.37%",
"active 21s +2.69%",
"low drawdown -3.74%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms as growth rebounds.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation back to tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows amid tech correction."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value leadership continues.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active 21s +2.19%",
"low vol 12%",
"at 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth strongly outperforms.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth reasserts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Value/growth rotation, FOMC."
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI demand resumes.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"5s -9.33%",
"active 21s -15.04%",
"drawdown -20.83%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -12,
"invalidation_condition": "Further breakdown below drawdown lows.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Continued correction from stretched levels.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 25."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive dividend flows.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"5s +3.26%",
"active 21s +3.98%",
"low beta 0.28"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rate increase.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rate spike hurts dividend payers.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate stability supports bonds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10y yield 4.60%",
"active 21s -2.73%",
"low vol"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields spike above 4.8%.",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "FOMC hike lifts yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand on volatility.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"5s -1.46%",
"deep prior drawdown -25%",
"low quality score"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rallies strongly.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength weighs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical risk, FOMC."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.715,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC surprise hike (31.5% implied) triggers broad equity selloff",
"Rapid tech rebound reverses value leadership",
"Credit stress in financials from Senior Loan Officer Survey"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply or regional bank stress emerges.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative strength (+5.89% active 21s), shallow drawdown, and defensive positioning as tech corrects.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, August CPI/PPI, bank credit conditions in Senior Loan Officer Survey."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Risk-on rotation back into mega-cap tech; healthcare policy shock.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with recent leadership (+2.69% active 21s), low drawdown, and rotation from growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation amid tech drawdown; earnings and macro data through August."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth reasserts leadership; sharp equity selloff.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value leadership as growth corrects, positive momentum (+2.19% active 21s), low volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued value/growth rotation, FOMC outcome."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity drawdown.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure to hedge active tilts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, earnings, August CPI."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.415,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward defensive and value sectors showing recent leadership while mega-cap tech corrects hard (semis -15% active, Nasdaq -6% active). Financials and healthcare offer strong relative trend with shallow drawdowns.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Rotation trade favoring value/defensive sectors over growth given the sharp tech drawdown and macro uncertainty around FOMC.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27351,
"latency_seconds": 37.79701969306916,
"output_tokens": 2441,
"total_tokens": 29792
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Momentum, semis, and Korea/Taiwan crowded trades are unwinding hard (SMH -15% active 21d, EWY -25%), while breadth, financials, healthcare and dividend/value lead. Portfolio tilts to broadening leadership with a gold hedge and a 20% SPY core.
Rotation from megacap tech/semis toward equal-weight, financials and defensives is supported by breadth data (RSP-SPY +3.3% in 5 days) and shallow drawdowns at 52-week highs; a gold sleeve hedges FOMC hike risk.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Earnings season and easing headline inflation support drift higher.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,428.78, +8.5% YTD",
"SPY -0.99% over 5 sessions, -2.21% from 52w high",
"VIX 18.21"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY drops more than 6% from entry",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish FOMC with 31.5% hike odds; mega-cap semis weakness dragging index.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, Q2 GDP, megacap earnings, July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth broadening away from concentrated megacaps persists as semis de-rate.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP-SPY +3.31% 5s and +1.88% 21s",
"volatility 11.09%, max drawdown -2.04%, at 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-minus-SPY 21-day active return turns negative by more than 2%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Megacap earnings beats reconcentrate leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, July CPI Aug 12, Nvidia Aug 25"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steady rates, resilient credit, sector at highs with low volatility.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF active return 21s +5.89%, 5s +2.66%",
"max drawdown -2.42%, 0.00% from 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG falls more than 2% or XLF -5% from entry",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Loan-officer survey shows credit deterioration; curve flattening on hike.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3; FOMC; CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation with low beta as growth crowding unwinds.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV +4.37% 5s, +2.69% active 21s",
"max drawdown -3.74%, 0.00% from 52w high, beta 0.32"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses 4% from entry",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rebound leaves low-beta defensives behind; policy headlines.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector earnings through early August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Deep repricing plus unresolved Hormuz/Iran conflict supports haven bid.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IAU -25.4% prior active return, -25.5% from 52w high",
"5s -1.46%, headline CPI 3.5% y/y"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield above 4.9% and gold 5% below entry",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish Fed and firmer dollar keep real rates high, pressuring gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; June PCE July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Nvidia results Aug 25 could reignite AI trade after washout.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH -9.33% 5s, active 21s -15.04%, drawdown -20.83%",
"Micron -8.9%, AMD -8.1%, AMAT -7.8% on July 28"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 14,
"forecast_low_pct": -15,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH makes new lows below -20% drawdown level",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "53% volatility and ongoing crowded-trade unwind risk further downside.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Nvidia results Aug 25"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cooling June CPI/PPI could pull yields lower.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT active 21s -4.84%, 10-year at 4.60%",
"31.5% implied odds of a rate increase"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield exceeds 4.85%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky 4.1% PCE and hike risk keep duration under pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Unresolved Hormuz access could spike crude.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $82.08, -4.4%; USO -6.49% 5s",
"USO volatility 54%, drawdown -32.5%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 18,
"forecast_low_pct": -18,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent breaks below $72",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Falling energy prices and negotiation progress; severe contango decay.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran/Hormuz developments; Exxon and Chevron results"
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.84,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC surprise hike (31.5% implied) hits all risk assets",
"Sharp mean-reversion rally in semis/momentum leaves SPY ahead",
"Hot July CPI lifts yields, pressuring financials and gold",
"Megacap earnings beats re-concentrate leadership into cap-weighted SPY"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-minus-SPY 21-day active return turns negative by more than 2%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Breadth broadening with lowest volatility and zero drawdown from highs; benefits if megacap/semis de-rate continues.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, July CPI Aug 12, Nvidia Aug 25"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply (HYG down more than 2%) or XLF falls 5% below entry",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strongest 21-day active return (+5.9%) with low volatility, at 52-week high, shallow drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3; FOMC and CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses 4% from entry or drug-pricing policy shock",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive leadership, +4.4% in 5 days, at 52-week high, shallowest drawdown among sectors, low SPY beta.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector earnings through early August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish Fed hike surprise driving SPY below -6%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark core to limit tracking error given elevated macro event risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, Q2 GDP, megacap earnings, July CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.7,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.9% with gold breaking below entry by 5%",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Hedge against hawkish-Fed or geopolitical shock; deeply drawdown-repriced with low correlation to equity holdings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; PCE July 30; Hormuz tensions"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.44,
"portfolio_rationale": "Momentum, semis, and Korea/Taiwan crowded trades are unwinding hard (SMH -15% active 21d, EWY -25%), while breadth, financials, healthcare and dividend/value lead. Portfolio tilts to broadening leadership with a gold hedge and a 20% SPY core.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Rotation from megacap tech/semis toward equal-weight, financials and defensives is supported by breadth data (RSP-SPY +3.3% in 5 days) and shallow drawdowns at 52-week highs; a gold sleeve hedges FOMC hike risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27345,
"latency_seconds": 46.85337338410318,
"output_tokens": 3209,
"total_tokens": 30554
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio focuses on defensive sectors with strong recent performance and lower volatility, given the mixed economic signals and recent market pullbacks in technology.
Allocated to Aerospace & Defense and Healthcare for defensive positioning and recent strength.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued economic growth and positive earnings.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,428.78, up 0.2% on July 28.",
"Up 8.5% in 2026 through July 28."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant negative surprise in Q2 GDP or inflation data.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Inflation re-accelerates or economic data weakens significantly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and advance Q2 GDP."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Ongoing geopolitical tensions support defense spending.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"5-day return of 6.63%.",
"Negotiations over Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the U.S.-Iran conflict remained unresolved."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant de-escalation of global conflicts.",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"reversal_case": "Resolution of major geopolitical conflicts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive characteristics appeal to investors amid market uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"5-day return of 4.37%.",
"21-day active return of 2.69%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Unexpected regulatory changes impacting the sector.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Strong economic growth leads to rotation out of defensive sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports from major healthcare companies."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tech earnings surprise to the upside.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.2% on July 28.",
"Traded as much as 9.3% below its prior-month record."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant earnings misses from mega-cap tech companies.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Continued rotation out of mega-cap tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Economic data weakens, leading to lower yields.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended July 28 at 4.60%.",
"5-day return of 0.69%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant upside surprise in inflation data.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Inflation remains sticky, pushing yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and inflation data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Increased safe-haven demand due to geopolitical or economic shocks.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"5-day return of -1.46%.",
"21-day active return of -2.75%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant decrease in geopolitical tensions and lower inflation.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Strong economic growth and higher real yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical developments or inflation data."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.25,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Market rotation back into high-growth technology stocks.",
"Unexpected positive economic data reducing the appeal of defensive sectors.",
"Specific sector risks such as regulatory changes in healthcare or defense budget cuts."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant de-escalation of global conflicts.",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Strong recent performance and defensive characteristics in a volatile market.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued geopolitical tensions and defense spending."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Unexpected regulatory changes impacting the sector.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with solid recent returns and low volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports from major healthcare companies."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.25,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio focuses on defensive sectors with strong recent performance and lower volatility, given the mixed economic signals and recent market pullbacks in technology.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Allocated to Aerospace & Defense and Healthcare for defensive positioning and recent strength.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16687,
"latency_seconds": 17.188458477845415,
"output_tokens": 1601,
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}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio avoids recently weak mega-cap technology concentration and emphasizes breadth, defensive/quality sectors, and financials with near-term macro catalysts. Diversified US equity exposure is capped at 50% outside SPY, while the remaining allocations span healthcare, financials, and industrials/defense.
Selected holdings all have base forecasts above SPY and are supported by recent breadth, 52-week highs or positive active returns. The one-month edge depends on continued rotation away from cap-weighted technology weakness into broader and more defensive equity leadership.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad US equities can continue higher if FOMC, GDP, inflation, employment, and mega-cap earnings avoid negative surprises.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed up 0.2% on July 28 and was up 8.5% in 2026.",
"SPY 5-day return was -0.99% and 21-day return was 1.63%.",
"SPY volatility was 12.96% with a -4.49% 63-day max drawdown and price was 2.21% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks materially below its recent 63-day drawdown range or breadth deteriorates with RSP no longer outperforming.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "The Nasdaq weakness and upcoming policy and earnings events could pull cap-weighted indexes lower if growth leadership disappoints.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement and press conference, GDP, PCE, July employment, CPI/PPI, retail sales, Fed minutes, and Nvidia results before August 28."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Most US stocks rose on July 28 and equal-weight leadership can persist if market breadth remains stronger than mega-cap growth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP returned 2.32% over 5 days and had 1.88% 21-day active return versus SPY.",
"RSP volatility was 11.09%, below SPY's 12.96%, with a -2.04% 63-day max drawdown.",
"RSP was at a 52-week high while SPY was 2.21% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP loses its 21-day active outperformance versus SPY or falls more than 4% from entry while SPY holds up.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "If mega-cap technology earnings rebound and concentration leadership returns, equal weight could lag SPY despite positive breadth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, inflation, employment and major earnings could extend the recent broadening beyond mega-cap technology before August 28."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive yield-oriented equities can continue to benefit if investors favor lower-volatility breadth over high-beta technology.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Dividend equities returned 3.26% over 5 days and had 3.98% 21-day active return versus SPY.",
"Prior 105-day active return was 5.99%, with 12.14% volatility and a -2.95% max drawdown.",
"Dividend equities were at a 52-week high and had low 252-day beta to SPY of 0.275."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities break below recent highs and their 21-day active return versus SPY turns negative.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A sharp risk-on rebound in high-beta growth or a rate spike could make dividend equities lag the benchmark.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI, retail sales and FOMC communication could support lower-volatility yield-oriented equities if rate fears ease."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent defensive sector strength can continue if macro uncertainty persists and investors rotate away from volatile technology leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare returned 4.37% over 5 days and had 2.69% 21-day active return versus SPY.",
"Healthcare was at a 52-week high with a -3.74% 63-day max drawdown.",
"Its 252-day correlation to SPY was 0.253 and beta was 0.316."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms SPY over the next two weeks or falls more than 4% from entry.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "The sector's prior 105-day active return was -3.52%, so the recent rebound could fade if rotation stalls.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August macro data and risk rotation could favor defensive sectors with positive recent breadth through the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Financial leadership can persist if rates, credit data, and economic releases support margins and reduce recession concern.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Financials had 5.89% 21-day active return versus SPY and a 2.66% 5-day return.",
"Financials were at a 52-week high with 13.17% volatility and a -2.42% max drawdown.",
"The federal-funds target range was 3.50% to 3.75% and FOMC, loan survey, jobs and GDP data are scheduled before exit."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials lose 21-day active leadership versus SPY or credit/rate data imply materially worse bank margin or credit conditions.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weaker loan, labor, or credit conditions could quickly reverse banks and broader financials from current highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC communication, Senior Loan Officer Survey, JOLTS, employment and GDP data can affect yield-curve and credit expectations before August 28."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong recent sector buying can continue if geopolitical risk and industrial earnings sustain demand for defense exposure.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Aerospace and defense returned 6.63% over 5 days and had 1.83% 21-day active return versus SPY.",
"The option was 2.31% below its 52-week high with 24.97% volatility.",
"Geopolitical risks included unresolved U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz tanker-access negotiations."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Aerospace and defense reverses more than half of its 5-day gain or its 21-day active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"reversal_case": "The 5-day surge may be overextended, and prior 105-day active return was -4.20%, making reversal risk meaningful.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Large-cap earnings season and unresolved geopolitical risks could sustain demand for defense-oriented industrial exposure."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The strong prior trend and major earnings catalysts could restart technology leadership if results support AI and growth expectations.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Technology fell 5.36% over 5 days and had -7.16% 21-day active return versus SPY.",
"Prior 105-day active return was 18.48%, but volatility was 33.17% and max drawdown was -13.58%.",
"Major technology earnings including Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia are scheduled before the exit close."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Technology fails to regain positive 21-day active momentum versus SPY after the first wave of mega-cap earnings.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Recent drawdown, high volatility, and Nasdaq weakness could persist if earnings or rates disappoint.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap technology earnings and Nvidia results after the close on August 26."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.47,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Mega-cap technology and SPY rebound sharply after major earnings, causing the active portfolio to lag.",
"FOMC, CPI, PPI, GDP, or employment data revive rate fears and pressure financials, dividend equities, real assets, and broad equities.",
"Recent breadth and sector rotation reverse, with equal-weight and defensive sectors giving back their short-term active gains.",
"Aerospace and defense strength proves a short-term spike and reverses without supportive earnings or geopolitical follow-through."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP loses its 21-day active outperformance versus SPY or falls more than 4% from entry while SPY holds up.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Equal-weight exposure has better near-term breadth than cap-weighted SPY, with 5-day and 21-day returns ahead of SPY and a fresh 52-week high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, inflation, employment and major earnings could extend the recent broadening beyond mega-cap technology before August 28."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities break below recent highs and their 21-day active return versus SPY turns negative.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities combine positive recent active returns, low beta to SPY, and a 52-week high, offering defensive upside if leadership keeps broadening.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI, retail sales and FOMC communication could support lower-volatility yield-oriented equities if rate fears ease."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.15,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms SPY over the next two weeks or falls more than 4% from entry.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare shows recent strength, a 52-week high, shallow drawdown, and relatively low correlation to SPY, giving a non-mega-cap defensive growth tilt.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August macro data and risk rotation could favor defensive sectors with positive recent breadth through the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials lose 21-day active leadership versus SPY or credit/rate data imply materially worse bank margin or credit conditions.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials have the strongest recent 21-day active return among selected sectors and sit at a 52-week high with modest volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC communication, Senior Loan Officer Survey, JOLTS, employment and GDP data can affect yield-curve and credit expectations before August 28."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Aerospace and defense reverses more than half of its 5-day gain or its 21-day active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Aerospace and defense has strong 5-day price action and positive 21-day active return, with potential support from earnings and geopolitical risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Large-cap earnings season and unresolved geopolitical risks could sustain demand for defense-oriented industrial exposure."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.17,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio avoids recently weak mega-cap technology concentration and emphasizes breadth, defensive/quality sectors, and financials with near-term macro catalysts. Diversified US equity exposure is capped at 50% outside SPY, while the remaining allocations span healthcare, financials, and industrials/defense.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings all have base forecasts above SPY and are supported by recent breadth, 52-week highs or positive active returns. The one-month edge depends on continued rotation away from cap-weighted technology weakness into broader and more defensive equity leadership.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15167,
"latency_seconds": 40.95946152578108,
"output_tokens": 2688,
"reasoning_tokens": 200,
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}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines broadening U.S. participation and defensive healthcare with a measured technology rebound position. Distinct catalysts and the 50% cluster cap limit dependence on any single market regime.
Equal weight has the strongest breadth confirmation, healthcare supplies defensive relative strength, and Nasdaq-100 offers event-driven rebound potential after a material pullback.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Positive year-to-date performance and broad scheduled earnings support a modest advance if growth remains resilient.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned 1.63% over 21 sessions but fell 0.99% over five sessions.",
"SPY was 2.21% below its 52-week high with 12.96% 63-session volatility.",
"FOMC, GDP, inflation, labor data, and major earnings all fall inside the window."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes more than 4% below entry while breadth and high-yield credit weaken.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A hawkish policy surprise, sticky inflation, or weak earnings could deepen the recent decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC communication, GDP, inflation, employment, and mega-cap earnings before August 28."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Improving breadth and lower mega-cap concentration can sustain relative gains if economic data avoid recession signals.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP beat SPY by 3.31 percentage points over five sessions and 1.88 points over 21 sessions.",
"RSP closed at its 52-week high with an 11.09% volatility reading and 2.04% maximum drawdown.",
"Most U.S. stocks rose on July 28 despite weakness in several large chip stocks."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 7.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points over five sessions while breadth contracts.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Strong mega-cap earnings or a growth scare could rapidly restore cap-weighted leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment, inflation, retail-sales, and industrial-production releases could confirm broader economic resilience."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive demand and recent relative strength can persist through a dense macro-event calendar.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare gained 4.37% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 2.69 points over 21 sessions.",
"It closed at a 52-week high with a 3.74% 63-session maximum drawdown.",
"Its 252-session SPY beta was only 0.316."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 7.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses its recent relative leadership and falls more than 5% from the entry close.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A sharp risk-on rotation or sector-specific policy concerns could unwind defensive leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July inflation and labor data may sustain rotation toward defensive earnings exposure."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend plus a deep pullback can produce a rebound if scheduled mega-cap earnings validate growth expectations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"NASDAQ100 had a 0.718 quality score, including 0.836 prior-active and 0.866 pullback ranks.",
"QQQ underperformed SPY by 6.02 points over 21 sessions after 7.43 points of prior-window active strength.",
"The Nasdaq traded as much as 9.3% below its prior-month record."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 12.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -8.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Major technology earnings disappoint collectively or QQQ closes more than 5% below its entry level.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "High volatility, elevated rate sensitivity, and disappointing technology earnings could extend the drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia earnings occur before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cooling inflation and weak payroll growth could lower yields and lift duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.60% from 4.65%.",
"TLT gained 0.69% over five sessions but lost 3.21% over 21 sessions.",
"June CPI fell 0.4% month over month, while May PCE inflation remained elevated."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year yield closes above 4.80% and inflation data reaccelerate.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A rate increase, sticky PCE, or stronger GDP could push long yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, June PCE, July CPI, and the second GDP estimate occur before exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relatively firm U.S. rates or risk aversion could support the dollar.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"UUP gained 0.35% over five sessions and 0.42% over 21 sessions.",
"Its quality score was 0.651 with high low-volatility and shallow-drawdown ranks.",
"The FOMC meeting carried a market-implied 31.5% probability of an increase."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "UUP falls more than 1.5% from entry as U.S. yields decline relative to foreign yields.",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "Dovish Fed communication and softer inflation could narrow rate differentials.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, U.S. inflation data, and Bank of Japan communication."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Unresolved geopolitical supply risk could revive the strong prior trend.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO rose 14.23% over 21 sessions but fell 6.49% over five sessions.",
"Brent settled down 4.4% at $82.08.",
"Strait of Hormuz tanker-access negotiations and the U.S.-Iran conflict remained unresolved."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 18,
"forecast_low_pct": -15,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent breaks materially below its July 28 level as tanker access normalizes.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "The sharp five-session decline may continue if access negotiations improve or demand expectations weaken.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in Strait of Hormuz access and U.S.-Iran tensions before August 28."
}
],
"confidence": 0.59,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.9,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC outcome or renewed inflation pressure lifts yields and compresses equity valuations.",
"Mega-cap or Nvidia earnings disappoint, extending the technology drawdown.",
"Weak employment or consumption data turns broadening into a cyclical selloff.",
"Recent defensive and equal-weight leadership reverses abruptly back toward cap-weighted mega-caps."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points over five sessions while breadth contracts.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Broadening participation, a record-level close, lower volatility, and shallower drawdown support continued leadership over cap-weighted SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment, inflation, retail-sales, and industrial-production releases could confirm broader economic resilience."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses its recent relative leadership and falls more than 5% from the entry close.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Recent relative strength, a shallow drawdown, and defensive characteristics offer favorable one-month asymmetry amid macro and earnings uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July inflation and labor data may sustain rotation toward defensive earnings exposure."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Major technology earnings disappoint collectively or QQQ closes more than 5% below its entry level.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"rationale": "A deep relative pullback against a strong prior trend creates rebound potential, with mega-cap earnings and Nvidia results inside the window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia earnings occur before the exit close."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines broadening U.S. participation and defensive healthcare with a measured technology rebound position. Distinct catalysts and the 50% cluster cap limit dependence on any single market regime.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Equal weight has the strongest breadth confirmation, healthcare supplies defensive relative strength, and Nasdaq-100 offers event-driven rebound potential after a material pullback.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-3
Allocates to SP500 plus three holdings with base forecasts exceeding SP500, spanning diversified equity, healthcare, financials, and industrials clusters, each under 50%.
Favors recent positive performers in defensive areas over growth sectors showing sharp pullbacks.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market stability holds through earnings season",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed at 7428.78 up 0.2% on July 28",
"VIX at 18.21 down 2.46%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Growth stock selloff broadens to value and defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists into August",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV 5-day return 4.37%",
"Quality evidence score 0.425"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Rate volatility triggers broad equity decline",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Bank sector relative strength continues",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF 5-day return 2.66%",
"Quality evidence score 0.364"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Rate volatility triggers broad equity decline",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defense spending and geopolitics support sector",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ITA 5-day return 6.63%",
"Geopolitical tensions unresolved"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"reversal_case": "Rate volatility triggers broad equity decline",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate-sensitive defensives attract flows",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLU 5-day return 1.34%",
"Quality evidence score 0.654"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "Rate volatility triggers broad equity decline",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yen stabilization supports exporters",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"EWJ 5-day return -3.14%",
"Quality evidence score 0.672"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yen strengthens sharply versus USD",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Global growth slowdown hits exports",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan policy communication July 29-31"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation continues from growth weakness",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IWD 5-day return 1.86%",
"Quality evidence score 0.623"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Rate volatility triggers broad equity decline",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Equal-weight outperformance persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"RSP 5-day return 2.32%",
"Quality evidence score 0.572"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap rebound narrows breadth",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.06,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC outcome and July CPI surprise",
"Further tech sector weakness extending to broader market",
"Oil price volatility from unresolved Hormuz negotiations"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad market exposure with neutral recent momentum amid mixed macro data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Positive 5-day return of 4.37% and quality evidence score 0.425 with defensive characteristics.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive 5-day return of 2.66% and quality evidence score 0.364 with recent relative strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Strong 5-day return of 6.63% and defensive sector exposure amid geopolitical tensions.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.86,
"portfolio_rationale": "Allocates to SP500 plus three holdings with base forecasts exceeding SP500, spanning diversified equity, healthcare, financials, and industrials clusters, each under 50%.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Favors recent positive performers in defensive areas over growth sectors showing sharp pullbacks.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15400,
"latency_seconds": 14.167812920873985,
"output_tokens": 1878,
"reasoning_tokens": 678,
"total_tokens": 17956
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in areas showing recent relative strength, breadth leadership, and proximity to highs while avoiding extended tech pullbacks. Allocations stay within cluster caps and target higher base returns than SPY over the one-month window.
Value, financials, healthcare, and aerospace exhibit better recent active performance and positioning than cap-weighted SPY amid mixed rates and data. Selection favors continuation of breadth with defined invalidation levels.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Modest positive drift if FOMC and data remain orderly with breadth support",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY 5s return -0.99% and 21s +1.63%",
"S&P 500 closed 7428.78 up 0.2% on July 28 with YTD +8.5%",
"VIX at 18.21"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Close below recent range lows with VIX spike",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Policy surprise or weak GDP/PCE drives drawdown toward recent -4.49% max",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and July CPI mid-August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate stability and employment data sustain financial leadership and high levels",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF active_return_21s +5.89% and return_5s +2.66%",
"Distance to 52w high 0.00%",
"Quality evidence score 0.364 with shallow drawdown rank 0.821"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break of recent highs support on rising unemployment or spreads",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit tightening or yield curve shock reverses gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation August 7 and Fed minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid and earnings support hold recent strength",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV return_5s +4.37% and active_return_21s +2.69%",
"Distance to 52w high 0.00%",
"Max drawdown_63s only -3.74%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Loss of 5s gains and underperformance vs SPY",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Growth scare or sector-specific policy news fades momentum",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI August 12-14 and residual earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Momentum from recent surge persists with industrial and defense demand",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ITA return_5s +6.63% and active_return_21s +1.83%",
"Volatility_63s 24.97% with distance_52w_high -2.31%",
"Most U.S. stocks rose on July 28"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Give-back of majority of 5-session advance",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-off or budget concerns reverse the sharp 5s move",
"time_window_catalyst": "Industrial production and residual defense-related news before exit"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value and equal-weight leadership continues if rates stabilize",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWD return_5s +1.86% and active_return_21s +2.19%",
"Distance to 52w high 0.00% and prior_105s_active +5.77%",
"RSP minus SPY 5s +3.31% indicating breadth"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Active return turns negative versus SPY on growth data",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth reacceleration or mega-cap rebound leaves value behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and July retail sales/CPI data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth persistence favors equal-weight over cap-weighted",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"RSP return_5s +2.32% and active_return_21s +1.88%",
"Distance to 52w high 0.00% and low volatility rank supportive",
"rsp_minus_spy_5s +3.31%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY over multi-day stretch",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap recovery compresses the equal-weight premium",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-FOMC and mid-August inflation data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium and prior strength reassert",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE active_return_21s +5.30% but return_5s -1.59%",
"October Brent at $82.08 down 4.4% with Hormuz unresolved",
"USO 21s +14.23% but 5s -6.49%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained oil weakness below recent settles",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Further oil price decline or demand concerns dominate",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing tanker negotiations and inventory data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dividend and quality bid continues in uncertain macro",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD return_5s +3.26% and active_return_21s +3.98%",
"Distance to 52w high 0.00%",
"Low corr_spy_252s 0.313"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Loss of relative strength versus broader value",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation away from defensive yield names",
"time_window_catalyst": "Employment and CPI releases"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.36,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC or GDP surprise triggers broad equity selloff",
"Tech earnings contagion reverses value/financial leadership",
"Geopolitical escalation hits energy-linked or risk assets",
"Higher-than-expected inflation data lifts yields sharply"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent lows on rising credit stress or sharp yield spike",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong recent active returns and position at 52-week high with supportive breadth and upcoming data flow.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report and Fed minutes through mid-August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Reversal of monthly gains on policy or growth disappointment",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Positive 5-session momentum, at 52-week high, defensive characteristics amid mixed macro.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and ongoing earnings season through August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp reversal of 5-session gains on risk-off move",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Large recent outperformance and industrial exposure with geopolitical backdrop.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defense-related budget and earnings updates before August 28"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Underperformance versus SPY on growth scare",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Positive active returns, at highs, and alignment with equal-weight breadth strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC follow-through and July retail sales/CPI"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.16,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in areas showing recent relative strength, breadth leadership, and proximity to highs while avoiding extended tech pullbacks. Allocations stay within cluster caps and target higher base returns than SPY over the one-month window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Value, financials, healthcare, and aerospace exhibit better recent active performance and positioning than cap-weighted SPY amid mixed rates and data. Selection favors continuation of breadth with defined invalidation levels.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-28-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16255,
"latency_seconds": 43.1429106250871,
"output_tokens": 2421,
"reasoning_tokens": 1111,
"total_tokens": 19787
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)30%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%S&P 500 (SPY)20%Gold (IAU)10% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Aerospace and Defense (ITA)50%Healthcare Sector (XLV)50% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)30%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)15% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Financials Sector (XLF)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)25%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-28 | 244.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-28 | 93.67 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-28 | 27.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-28 | 29.32 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-28 | 113.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-28 | 149.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-28 | 36.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-28 | 36.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-28 | 57.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-28 | 17.06 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-28 | 59.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-28 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-28 | 54.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-28 | 109.67 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-28 | 112.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-28 | 87.06 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-28 | 38.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-28 | 120.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-28 | 89.28 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-28 | 69.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-28 | 95.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-28 | 57.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-28 | 57.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-28 | 217.69 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-28 | 14.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-28 | 105.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-28 | 89.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-28 | 57.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-28 | 75.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-28 | 167.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-28 | 79.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-28 | 49.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-28 | 182.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-28 | 93.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-28 | 47.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-28 | 106.83 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-28 | 89.83 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-28 | 56.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-28 | 84.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-28 | 52.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-28 | 101.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-28 | 76.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-28 | 106.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-28 | 675.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-28 | 46.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-28 | 76.79 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-28 | 740.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-28 | 529.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-28 | 91.63 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-28 | 51.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-28 | 91.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-28 | 49.10 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-28 | 61.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-28 | 151.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-28 | 93.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-28 | 171.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-28 | 365.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-28 | 107.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-28 | 47.82 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-28 | 97.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-28 | 33.89 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-28 | 28.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-28 | 116.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-28 | 252.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-28 | 77.97 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-28 | 76.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-28 | 292.32 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-28 | 293.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-28 | 224.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-28 | 45.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 37faf0949a9e...e9880dbe |
| manifest.yaml | 5fc59e3b56e2...af05c6e5 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 62077ed1b1e5...4c3ef978 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 598b57c3f3aa...ec5f649e |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | aaee500489f3...182cb596 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 4157b6a01822...5dfcdd92 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 37713f37bf49...ddc17d38 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 20d90cbbf396...5266ef59 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |