Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 63.9 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward defensive equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Energy Sector (XLE) is the largest aggregate allocation at +17.81%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-24 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-monthly-20260724
33,155 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Energy Sector (XLE)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-24-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-24
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-25T18:33:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-25T23:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-24
- Exit date: 2026-08-24
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 24, 2026 as the one-month entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, August 24, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-25T18:33:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Friday, July 24, 2026
Scoring window: July 24 close through August 24 close
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 24 market close
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98, up less than 0.1% on the day and down 0.6% for the week. The Dow closed at 51,947.25, up 0.5% on the day and down 0.4% for the week.
- The Nasdaq closed at 24,975.82, down 0.6% on the day and 2.1% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,930.00, down 0.3% on the day and 1.1% for the week.
- More S&P 500 constituents rose than fell on July 24. Micron fell 7.0% and Broadcom fell 2.7%.
- Year to date through July 24, the S&P 500 was up 8.3%, the Dow 8.1%, the Nasdaq 7.5%, and the Russell 2000 18.1%.
- Brent crude settled at $96.78 per barrel, down 3.9% on July 24 after settling at $100.69 on July 23. It traded near $72 before the late-February Iran war.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.68%, down from 4.71% late July 23. It was 3.97% before the Iran war began.
- The U.S. national average regular gasoline price was $4.10 per gallon, compared with $3.93 approximately one month earlier.
## Current U.S. economic releases
- June CPI fell 0.4% seasonally adjusted and rose 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% over 12 months. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% above a year earlier.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% and was 5.5% above a year earlier. Final-demand goods fell 1.4%, services rose 0.2%, and final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1%.
- June nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. April and May payroll growth was revised down by a combined 74,000. Labor-force participation was 61.5%.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in June and 3.5% over 12 months.
- Initial unemployment claims were 187,000 in the week ended July 18, down 22,000 from the prior revised week. The four-week average was 207,500.
- June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May with a published ±0.4-percentage-point confidence interval and up 6.7% from June 2025.
- June new-home sales were estimated at a 628,000 annual rate, up 1.6% from May and down 5.6% from a year earlier. Published confidence intervals were ±14.8 points for the monthly change and ±13.2 points for the annual change.
- New-home inventory was 485,000 units, equal to 9.3 months of supply. The June median sale price was $398,300.
## Policy and international observations
- The FOMC maintained a 3.50%-3.75% federal-funds target range on June 17. Federal-funds futures late July 24 priced a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the July 28-29 meeting; this was a changing market-implied probability.
- The ECB kept its deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% on July 23. It described uncertainty around the energy shock as high and did not pre-commit to a rate path.
- Euro-area annual inflation was 2.8% in June, down from 3.2% in May.
- China reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% from a year earlier and second-quarter growth of 4.3% after 5.0% in the first quarter.
- China reported first-half per-capita disposable income growth of 5.2% nominally and 4.2% after price adjustment.
- A fresh U.S. tariff round announced July 24 affected nearly all U.S. imports. Implementation and the degree of consumer-price pass-through remained uncertain at the cutoff.
- Reuters reported that aggregate second-quarter S&P 500 earnings were tracking 26.5% above a year earlier as of July 22, based on LSEG IBES estimates from more than 80 reported companies.
## Scheduled events through the August 24 close
- July 27-31: June durable goods and advance economic indicators; July 28-29 FOMC meeting; July 30 advance second-quarter GDP and June PCE; July 30-31 Bank of Japan meeting; July 31 Employment Cost Index and euro-area flash inflation.
- Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies were scheduled to report during the week ending July 31, including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Visa, Chevron, and Coca-Cola; exact company times remained subject to issuer calendars.
- August 3: June construction spending and July ISM manufacturing PMI.
- August 4: June JOLTS, U.S. international trade, and manufacturers’ orders.
- August 5: July ISM services PMI.
- August 6: preliminary second-quarter productivity and costs.
- August 7, 8:30 a.m. ET: July Employment Situation.
- August 12, 8:30 a.m. ET: July CPI and real earnings.
- August 13, 8:30 a.m. ET: July PPI.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: July retail sales; June business inventories at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: July import/export prices and housing starts; July industrial production at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m. ET: minutes of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
- August 21, 10:00 a.m. ET: July state employment and unemployment.
- The 2026 Jackson Hole symposium is scheduled for August 27-29, after this scoring window.
## Neutrality statement
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. The complete mechanical appendices are generated separately in frozen option order, and price history is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-24-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-24'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-25T23:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-25T18:30:54.574032+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 24, 2026 as the one-month entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, August 24, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-24'
exit_date: '2026-08-24'
created_at: '2026-07-25T18:30:54.574032+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.2 monthly round prepared from a brand-new July 24 close research package using direct public-source browsing. Claude Opus 5 joins the forward-only frozen roster. Participant tools, browsing, search, retrieval, and follow-up calls are disabled.# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-25T18:33:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Friday, July 24, 2026
Scoring window: July 24 close through August 24 close
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 24 market close
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98, up less than 0.1% on the day and down 0.6% for the week. The Dow closed at 51,947.25, up 0.5% on the day and down 0.4% for the week.
- The Nasdaq closed at 24,975.82, down 0.6% on the day and 2.1% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,930.00, down 0.3% on the day and 1.1% for the week.
- More S&P 500 constituents rose than fell on July 24. Micron fell 7.0% and Broadcom fell 2.7%.
- Year to date through July 24, the S&P 500 was up 8.3%, the Dow 8.1%, the Nasdaq 7.5%, and the Russell 2000 18.1%.
- Brent crude settled at $96.78 per barrel, down 3.9% on July 24 after settling at $100.69 on July 23. It traded near $72 before the late-February Iran war.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.68%, down from 4.71% late July 23. It was 3.97% before the Iran war began.
- The U.S. national average regular gasoline price was $4.10 per gallon, compared with $3.93 approximately one month earlier.
## Current U.S. economic releases
- June CPI fell 0.4% seasonally adjusted and rose 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% over 12 months. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% above a year earlier.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% and was 5.5% above a year earlier. Final-demand goods fell 1.4%, services rose 0.2%, and final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1%.
- June nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. April and May payroll growth was revised down by a combined 74,000. Labor-force participation was 61.5%.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in June and 3.5% over 12 months.
- Initial unemployment claims were 187,000 in the week ended July 18, down 22,000 from the prior revised week. The four-week average was 207,500.
- June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May with a published ±0.4-percentage-point confidence interval and up 6.7% from June 2025.
- June new-home sales were estimated at a 628,000 annual rate, up 1.6% from May and down 5.6% from a year earlier. Published confidence intervals were ±14.8 points for the monthly change and ±13.2 points for the annual change.
- New-home inventory was 485,000 units, equal to 9.3 months of supply. The June median sale price was $398,300.
## Policy and international observations
- The FOMC maintained a 3.50%-3.75% federal-funds target range on June 17. Federal-funds futures late July 24 priced a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the July 28-29 meeting; this was a changing market-implied probability.
- The ECB kept its deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% on July 23. It described uncertainty around the energy shock as high and did not pre-commit to a rate path.
- Euro-area annual inflation was 2.8% in June, down from 3.2% in May.
- China reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% from a year earlier and second-quarter growth of 4.3% after 5.0% in the first quarter.
- China reported first-half per-capita disposable income growth of 5.2% nominally and 4.2% after price adjustment.
- A fresh U.S. tariff round announced July 24 affected nearly all U.S. imports. Implementation and the degree of consumer-price pass-through remained uncertain at the cutoff.
- Reuters reported that aggregate second-quarter S&P 500 earnings were tracking 26.5% above a year earlier as of July 22, based on LSEG IBES estimates from more than 80 reported companies.
## Scheduled events through the August 24 close
- July 27-31: June durable goods and advance economic indicators; July 28-29 FOMC meeting; July 30 advance second-quarter GDP and June PCE; July 30-31 Bank of Japan meeting; July 31 Employment Cost Index and euro-area flash inflation.
- Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies were scheduled to report during the week ending July 31, including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Visa, Chevron, and Coca-Cola; exact company times remained subject to issuer calendars.
- August 3: June construction spending and July ISM manufacturing PMI.
- August 4: June JOLTS, U.S. international trade, and manufacturers’ orders.
- August 5: July ISM services PMI.
- August 6: preliminary second-quarter productivity and costs.
- August 7, 8:30 a.m. ET: July Employment Situation.
- August 12, 8:30 a.m. ET: July CPI and real earnings.
- August 13, 8:30 a.m. ET: July PPI.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: July retail sales; June business inventories at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: July import/export prices and housing starts; July industrial production at 9:15 a.m. ET.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m. ET: minutes of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
- August 21, 10:00 a.m. ET: July state employment and unemployment.
- The 2026 Jackson Hole symposium is scheduled for August 27-29, after this scoring window.
## Neutrality statement
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. The complete mechanical appendices are generated separately in frozen option order, and price history is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "12c4f592509ddf0bb649d2bb3e0a76673f8ad66972f5bb70928ea5bce2c3bdfb",
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"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "40986d7de45369cbba7a9c4efc481d7127d331e8f39db8e5bc9ee157b3419096",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
With headline CPI at 3.5%, a 38% priced probability of a Fed hike, Brent near $97 and tariffs raising inflation risk, I tilt toward value, dividends, defensives, energy and commodities and away from richly-valued rate-sensitive growth.
Energy-shock plus hawkish-Fed regime favors low-beta value/defensive equity and commodity exposure over the growth-heavy S&P 500 for this one-month window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings season sustains the index despite rate risk",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 up 8.3% YTD, -0.6% on the week",
"38% priced probability of a 25bp hike at July 28-29 FOMC",
"Q2 earnings tracking +26.5% y/y per LSEG"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Dovish Fed and cooling inflation lifting the whole index strongly",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Fed hike plus tariff inflation compresses growth-heavy multiples",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29, mega-cap earnings week of July 31, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Higher-for-longer rates keep rotating flows into value",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+2.23% 21d active return vs SPY, +3.46% prior-window active",
"Only -0.49% from 52w high with 11.9% vol and 0.72 beta",
"10y yield 4.68% and possible Fed hike pressure long-duration growth"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Fed signals cuts and yields fall sharply",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Dovish surprise reignites growth leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC and Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists into a possible hike",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+4.17% 21d active return, at 52w high",
"Beta 0.27 vs SPY, drawdown only -2.95%",
"Hawkish Fed risk favors low-beta income equity"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad growth-led melt-up post soft CPI",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on growth rally leaves dividend stocks lagging",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision July 28-29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent geopolitical supply risk keeps crude elevated and energy earnings strong",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $96.78 vs ~$72 pre-Iran-war; gasoline $4.10 and rising",
"XLE +10.52% 21d active return, negative SPY beta -0.21",
"Energy CPI 15.7% above year-earlier"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent settling below $85 on supply normalization",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Brent fell 3.9% on July 24; de-escalation could unwind the premium fast",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran conflict developments and Chevron earnings week of July 31"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflationary tariff and energy shock supports broad commodity prices",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+12.98% 21d active return",
"New broad tariff round announced July 24 raises goods-price risk",
"Negative equity beta provides hedge in a hike scenario"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodity index rolling over with Brent below $85",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Demand destruction and geopolitical calm trigger commodity pullback",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI, Aug 13 PPI tariff pass-through evidence"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid persists amid rate and tariff uncertainty; sector is cheap after long underperformance",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+5.24% 21d active return after -9.28% prior-window lag (mean reversion turn)",
"Beta 0.32, drawdown -3.74%, near 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare active return turns negative as growth rallies",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation drains defensive flows",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and August macro data driving defensive demand"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap earnings week of July 31 could reignite the AI trade",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-4.49% 21d active return, -8.2% from 52w high, beta 1.39",
"Micron -7.0% and Broadcom -2.7% on July 24",
"Possible Fed hike hurts long-duration growth valuations"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Blowout mega-cap earnings and dovish FOMC",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Hike plus tariff inflation extends the growth correction",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft/Amazon/Meta/Apple earnings week of July 31"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflation and hike risk keep pushing yields up",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10y yield 4.68%, up from 3.97% pre-war; TLT -4.37% over 21d",
"38% priced hike probability with CPI at 3.5%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp downside growth surprise driving yields below 4.4%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Growth scare (57k payrolls) could rally duration",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29 and Aug 7 payrolls"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"cost_usd": 0.46416,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil price collapse on Iran de-escalation would hurt energy and commodity sleeves",
"A dovish FOMC and soft July CPI could spark a growth rally that the portfolio underweights",
"A Fed hike triggering a broad equity selloff would drag all equity sleeves despite defensive tilt",
"Tariff-driven earnings warnings during Aug reporting could hit value cyclicals"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp growth-led rally after a dovish FOMC surprise",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value leads in a rising-rate, energy-shock regime; +2.23% 21d active return, only -0.49% from 52w high, low vol.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC and Aug 12 CPI favor rate-resilient value over growth"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Risk-on rotation back into mega-cap growth on soft inflation prints",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Defensive dividend equity at 52w high with +4.17% 21d active return and very low beta (0.27) into hike risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29; defensive flows if hike materializes"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Ceasefire or supply normalization pushing Brent back toward $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent ~$97 amid Iran war supply shock; XLE +10.5% 21d active, negative SPY beta gives hedge value.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing Iran conflict supply risk and oil-major earnings week of July 31"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Geopolitical de-escalation and sharp commodity retracement",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Broad inflation hedge: +12.98% 21d active, tariffs and energy shock support commodity prices; negative equity beta.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI and tariff pass-through into goods prices"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Renewed sector-specific policy pressure or strong risk-on rotation",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector turning: +5.24% 21d active after prolonged underperformance, low beta 0.32, near 52w high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation around FOMC and August macro prints"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"portfolio_rationale": "With headline CPI at 3.5%, a 38% priced probability of a Fed hike, Brent near $97 and tariffs raising inflation risk, I tilt toward value, dividends, defensives, energy and commodities and away from richly-valued rate-sensitive growth.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Energy-shock plus hawkish-Fed regime favors low-beta value/defensive equity and commodity exposure over the growth-heavy S&P 500 for this one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"input_tokens": 27426,
"latency_seconds": 52.14578338689171,
"output_tokens": 3798,
"total_tokens": 31224
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}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Blend of SPY core with defensive/quality tilts (healthcare, financials, dividend) that showed positive recent active returns, low volatility and shallow drawdowns amid FOMC and tariff uncertainty.
Tilt toward defensively resilient sectors with positive active momentum while keeping broad SPY core; hedges tariff and rate risk during a heavy earnings and data window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings and resilient labor support continued gains.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 up 8.3% YTD through July 24",
"Q2 earnings tracking +26.5% YoY",
"More constituents rose than fell July 24"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad index closes materially below entry after adverse macro surprise.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "FOMC hike and tariff shock trigger drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings week and FOMC July 28-29."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists amid rate and tariff uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 21s +5.24%",
"Max drawdown 63s only -3.74%",
"Recent 5s +0.92%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare active return turns sharply negative.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally rotates away from defensives.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows through August data-heavy window."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Solid earnings and stable curve support financials.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 21s +4.05%",
"Low volatility 13.04%",
"Shallow drawdown -2.42%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional bank stress or credit spread widening.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit stress or curve flattening pressures margins.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings and FOMC guidance."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive dividend demand continues amid uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 21s +4.17%",
"At 52w high, drawdown -2.95%",
"Low beta 0.274"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend factor breaks below entry on rotation.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rate spike or growth surge favors high-beta.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive positioning into August."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium sustains oil.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 21s +10.52%",
"Brent fell 3.9% July 24",
"Deep drawdown -13.21%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back toward pre-war $72 level.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Brent pullback from $100 to $96.78 signals fading premium.",
"time_window_catalyst": "OPEC and Iran-war-related supply news."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value leadership persists in defensive tape.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 21s +2.23%",
"Low volatility 11.87%",
"Near 52w high -0.49%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Value underperforms growth sharply.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth reasserts on strong tech earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings breadth and rate path."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap earnings surprise to upside.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 21s -4.49%",
"Recent 5s -1.60%",
"Drawdown -8.20%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech earnings miss triggers further drawdown.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Recent weakness and rate risk pressure high-beta tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings week."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration rally if growth slows.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 21s -2.19%",
"10-year yield 4.68% rising",
"High low-vol rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields rise further on hawkish Fed.",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Rising yields and hike risk pressure bonds.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and PCE/CPI data."
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.35,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC surprise hike July 28-29 with 38% implied probability hurts rate-sensitive holdings",
"Mega-cap earnings disappointment drags broad market and correlates holdings",
"Tariff round announced July 24 raises inflation pass-through risk"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "FOMC hikes and mega-cap earnings disappoint, driving broad selloff below entry.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core broad equity exposure with strong Q2 earnings tracking +26.5% YoY supporting large-cap resilience.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings week (MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL) and July 28-29 FOMC."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong risk-on rally rotates flows out of defensives.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive leadership with +5.24% active 21s return, low drawdown -3.74%, and shallow pullback offering value after prior underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation amid tariff and rate uncertainty through August."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit stress or sharp yield decline pressures net interest margins.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive +4.05% active 21s return, low vol 13% and shallow drawdown -2.42%; strong earnings backdrop.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings and yield-curve dynamics into August."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Rising rates or growth surge favors high-beta growth over dividends.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Strong +4.17% active 21s return, recent +1.15% strength, low beta 0.27, at 52w high with low drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive dividend demand amid tariff-driven uncertainty."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"portfolio_rationale": "Blend of SPY core with defensive/quality tilts (healthcare, financials, dividend) that showed positive recent active returns, low volatility and shallow drawdowns amid FOMC and tariff uncertainty.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Tilt toward defensively resilient sectors with positive active momentum while keeping broad SPY core; hedges tariff and rate risk during a heavy earnings and data window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27432,
"latency_seconds": 40.04516045493074,
"output_tokens": 2729,
"total_tokens": 30161
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Barbell of benchmark core plus defensive/value and an energy hedge against the inflationary oil shock, avoiding stretched high-beta semis and AI names that already show sharp recent relative drawdowns.
Sticky 3.5% CPI, a live 38% July hike probability, tariff risk and negative tech breadth argue for lower-beta defensive and real-asset tilts around an SPY core.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings growth and resilient claims support drift higher.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 up 8.3% YTD, closed 7,411.98",
"Q2 earnings tracking +26.5% y/y per LSEG IBES",
"38% implied probability of a July hike"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY down more than 5% from entry",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Rate hike, 3.5% CPI and new tariffs compress multiples.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29, Aug 7 payrolls, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists amid tariff and rate uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV 21-day active return +5.24%",
"Max drawdown only -3.74%, near 52-week high",
"Low beta 0.315 to SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV lags SPY by more than 3%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation back into tech leaves healthcare behind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector Q2 earnings through early August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value/dividend leadership backed by broadening breadth (RSP>SPY).",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD +4.17% active over 21 sessions, +1.15% last 5",
"At 52-week high with -2.95% max drawdown",
"Beta 0.274"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD down more than 4% from entry",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Falling yields could re-favor long-duration growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI, Aug 7 payrolls"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply shock persists and energy earnings beat.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $96.78 vs ~$72 pre-Iran-war",
"XLE +10.52% active over 21 sessions",
"Negative SPY beta -0.209 offers diversification"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent drops below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Ceasefire or demand destruction sends Brent sharply lower; XLE already had a -13% 63-day drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron earnings late July; crude path"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steeper curve and solid credit support bank earnings.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF +4.05% active over 21 sessions",
"Shallow -2.42% drawdown, near 52-week high",
"10-year at 4.68%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG falls more than 2% over the window",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit deterioration or a hawkish shock hits loan demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29; Aug 19 minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI capex cycle and prior +46.7% active trend could resume.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH -10.10% active over last 21 sessions",
"Volatility 53% and -16.8% 63-day drawdown",
"Micron fell 7.0% on July 24"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 16,
"forecast_low_pct": -16,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH lags SPY by another 5%",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Momentum already cracking with heavy single-name declines.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings week ending July 31"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls (57k) could rally duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT -4.37% over 21 sessions",
"10-year yield 4.68% vs 3.97% pre-war",
"CPI 3.5% y/y"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.9%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Hike risk and energy inflation keep yields elevated.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflation and geopolitical risk revive safe-haven demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU -25.97% prior active return, -24.95% from 52-week high",
"Recent 5-day return +0.97%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold makes new lows below the 63-day drawdown trough",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real yields and strong dollar (UUP +0.88% 5d) cap gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and CPI"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"cost_usd": 0.21178,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.64,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Dovish FOMC sparks a mega-cap tech melt-up that leaves defensive tilts behind",
"Sharp oil reversal hits energy allocation",
"Tariff pass-through crushes consumer and broad equity sentiment",
"Hot July CPI on Aug 12 raises rates and pressures all equity clusters"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "FOMC hikes and SPY breaks below -5% from entry",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure with Q2 earnings tracking +26.5% y/y.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC, mega-cap earnings week, Aug 7 jobs, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY by more than 3% intramonth",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with positive relative momentum, low drawdown and tariff/rate insulation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector earnings and August CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD falls more than 4% from entry",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Strong relative trend, at 52-week high, low beta cushions mega-cap tech drawdown risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI and Aug 7 payrolls"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Oil near $97 on Iran-war supply shock supports energy cash flows; low correlation to SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Crude price path and Chevron earnings in late July"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply with HYG down over 2%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive 21-day active return, shallow drawdown, benefits from higher-for-longer rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC and Aug 19 minutes"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.44,
"portfolio_rationale": "Barbell of benchmark core plus defensive/value and an energy hedge against the inflationary oil shock, avoiding stretched high-beta semis and AI names that already show sharp recent relative drawdowns.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Sticky 3.5% CPI, a live 38% July hike probability, tariff risk and negative tech breadth argue for lower-beta defensive and real-asset tilts around an SPY core.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"input_tokens": 27426,
"latency_seconds": 42.64768880303018,
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"total_tokens": 30412
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio balances core equity exposure with a tilt towards energy for momentum and healthcare for defensive characteristics. This positioning aims to capture potential upside while mitigating risks from upcoming macro events.
A balanced approach utilizing SP500 for core exposure, Energy for momentum, and Healthcare for defense.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Positive earnings reports and a dovish FOMC meeting could drive the index higher.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98, up less than 0.1% on the day.",
"Year to date through July 24, the S&P 500 was up 8.3%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant negative earnings surprises from mega-cap tech.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Negative earnings surprises or a hawkish FOMC could lead to a pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting on July 28-29 and major tech earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sustained high oil prices due to geopolitical tensions will support energy stocks.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $96.78 per barrel.",
"Energy sector has a high quality evidence score."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falling significantly below $90.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A sharp decline in oil prices would negatively impact the sector.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing geopolitical developments affecting oil supply."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Investors seeking defensive positioning amid macro uncertainty will support healthcare.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare sector showed positive active return over the last 21 days.",
"Defensive characteristics may be favored in an uncertain macro environment."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad market rally favoring high-beta sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A strong risk-on rally could lead to underperformance of defensive sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming healthcare sector earnings reports."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings from mega-cap tech could reignite the sector's momentum.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq closed down 0.6% on the day and 2.1% for the week.",
"Micron fell 7.0% and Broadcom fell 2.7%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant earnings misses from key tech companies.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Disappointing earnings or higher interest rates could lead to further declines.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Major tech earnings in the week ending July 31."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A dovish FOMC or weaker economic data could lead to lower yields and higher bond prices.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.68%.",
"FOMC maintained a 3.50%-3.75% federal-funds target range."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rising above 4.8%.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Strong economic data or a hawkish FOMC could push yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and upcoming economic data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Increased geopolitical risk or a weaker dollar could support gold prices.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Gold has a low quality evidence score.",
"Inflation data showed June CPI fell 0.4% seasonally adjusted."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant strengthening of the US dollar.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A stronger dollar or higher real rates would pressure gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and inflation data."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.39,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish surprise from the upcoming FOMC meeting.",
"Disappointing earnings from major tech companies.",
"A sudden drop in oil prices impacting the Energy allocation."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant negative earnings surprises from mega-cap tech or hawkish FOMC surprise.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core holding providing broad market exposure amid mixed economic signals and upcoming earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming tech earnings and FOMC meeting."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp drop in oil prices or resolution of geopolitical conflicts.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent momentum and high quality evidence score, supported by elevated oil prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued geopolitical tension and tight supply."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad market rally favoring high-beta sectors over defensives.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with positive recent active return and upcoming earnings reports.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector earnings reports and defensive rotation."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.89,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio balances core equity exposure with a tilt towards energy for momentum and healthcare for defensive characteristics. This positioning aims to capture potential upside while mitigating risks from upcoming macro events.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "A balanced approach utilizing SP500 for core exposure, Energy for momentum, and Healthcare for defense.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17121,
"latency_seconds": 14.032878885045648,
"output_tokens": 1796,
"total_tokens": 18917
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts away from mega-cap growth toward dividend/value, healthcare, utilities, and energy where supplied evidence shows stronger recent breadth, lower drawdowns in several holdings, and identifiable one-month catalysts. It keeps diversified US equity exposure below the non-benchmark cluster cap and avoids concentrated high-volatility technology despite high quality-evidence ranks there.
SPY has decent earnings support but faces tariff, rate, and growth-data risks. Selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY and diversify across four non-benchmark clusters with catalysts inside the scoring window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings growth and a heavy late-July reporting calendar could support a continued grind higher if macro data and FOMC communication are benign.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98, down 0.6% for the week and up 8.3% year to date.",
"SPY 21-session return was 0.78%, 63-session volatility was 13.04%, and max drawdown was -4.49%.",
"Aggregate second-quarter S&P 500 earnings were tracking 26.5% above a year earlier from more than 80 reported companies."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below its recent drawdown area while breadth deteriorates and rate expectations move more hawkish.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tariff implementation uncertainty, a possible FOMC hike, slowing payroll growth, or growth-stock weakness could pull the index lower.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC meeting, advance Q2 GDP, June PCE, July employment report, July CPI/PPI, retail sales, and major S&P 500 earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive breadth, low beta, shallow drawdown, and earnings support favor mature dividend companies if investors continue rotating away from volatile growth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND returned 1.15% over 5 sessions and had a 4.17% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"It had 12.00% 63-session volatility, -2.95% max drawdown, and was at its 52-week high.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.601 with high prior active rank of 0.806 and low-volatility rank of 0.761."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities lose their 52-week-high support and underperform SPY by more than 1.5 percentage points over the first half of the window.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A strong rebound in high-beta technology or a sharp rise in rates could reduce demand for dividend-oriented equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Large-cap earnings reports, July CPI/PPI, July retail sales, and FOMC communications before the August 24 exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value leadership can continue if market breadth remains positive and earnings strength extends beyond mega-cap growth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE returned 0.08% over 5 sessions and had a 2.23% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"It showed 3.46% prior 105-session active return, 11.87% volatility, and -2.40% max drawdown.",
"Distance from 52-week high was only -0.49%, with a 0.632 quality evidence score."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Market leadership narrows back sharply to mega-cap growth and large value underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "A renewed Nasdaq-led rally or weaker cyclical earnings could reverse the value factor advantage.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Broad second-quarter earnings reports and macro releases that test whether market breadth continues beyond mega-cap growth."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Healthcare may continue to benefit from defensive rotation and lower broad-market correlation during tariff, labor, and rate uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE returned 0.92% over 5 sessions and had a 5.24% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"It had a -3.74% 63-session max drawdown and was only -1.14% from its 52-week high.",
"The sector has moderate SPY beta of 0.315 and correlation of 0.255."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare reverses below recent support and its 21-day active return falls back near zero or negative versus SPY.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "The recent relative bounce could fade because prior 105-session active return was -9.28% and quality evidence score was only 0.275.",
"time_window_catalyst": "S&P 500 earnings season plus July labor, CPI, PPI, and retail-sales releases before exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated oil prices, geopolitical risk, and near-term energy earnings can support continued sector outperformance.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY returned 3.36% over 5 sessions and had a 10.52% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"Brent crude settled at $96.78 after trading near $72 before the late-February Iran war.",
"ENERGY had 4.05% prior 105-session active return, but 24.01% volatility and -13.21% max drawdown."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude breaks materially below the post-shock range or energy gives back most of its recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Crude fell 3.9% on July 24, and any easing of the geopolitical supply premium could quickly reverse energy equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron and other energy earnings, oil-market reaction to geopolitical supply risk, and July inflation data before August 24."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive demand and any decline in yields after soft inflation or labor data could sustain utilities' recent gains.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"UTILITIES returned 2.48% over 5 sessions and had a 0.87% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"Prior 105-session active return was 1.07%, with a quality evidence score of 0.551.",
"The sector had low SPY beta of 0.156 and correlation of 0.133."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above the entry level and utilities underperform SPY during the first two weeks.",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "A hawkish Fed outcome or higher long yields would pressure rate-sensitive defensive equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision/minutes and July CPI/PPI prints that may move Treasury yields and defensive yield-sensitive equities."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A hawkish FOMC, tariff uncertainty, or global risk aversion could support further dollar strength.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"US_DOLLAR returned 0.88% over 5 sessions but had -0.60% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"It had low 4.90% volatility, -0.98% max drawdown, and was at its 52-week high.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.663, supported by low-volatility rank of 0.881 and shallow-drawdown rank of 0.985."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "The dollar falls from its 52-week high while rate-hike probability declines after FOMC or inflation data.",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "Soft inflation or labor data could reduce rate-hike odds and weaken the dollar versus risk assets.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July FOMC decision, July employment report, CPI/PPI, and trade-related uncertainty before exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "If July inflation or employment data weaken and the FOMC sounds less hawkish, duration could rebound from its pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"LONG_TREASURY returned -1.50% over 5 sessions and had -5.15% 21-session active return versus SPY.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.68%, up from 3.97% before the Iran war began.",
"It had a strong recent pullback rank of 0.866 and low-volatility rank of 0.806, but prior 105-session active return was -5.46%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises above the entry level after FOMC or CPI and long Treasuries make new 63-session drawdown lows.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A rate hike, hotter CPI/PPI, or tariff pass-through fears could push yields higher and extend Treasury losses.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July FOMC meeting, June PCE, July employment, July CPI/PPI, and FOMC minutes."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A dovish risk-on rally led by mega-cap technology could cause SPY to outperform the defensive/value tilt.",
"Oil and energy equities could reverse if crude prices fall after the geopolitical shock premium fades.",
"A hotter July CPI/PPI or hawkish FOMC message could pressure utilities and dividend/value equities through higher yields.",
"Earnings disappointments in selected defensive, value, or energy sectors could overwhelm recent relative-strength signals."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities lose their 52-week-high support and underperform SPY by more than 1.5 percentage points over the first half of the window.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities show strong recent relative performance, low beta, shallow drawdown, and exposure to profitable mature companies ahead of a heavy earnings window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Large-cap earnings reports, July CPI/PPI, July retail sales, and FOMC communications before the August 24 exit."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare reverses below recent support and its 21-day active return falls back near zero or negative versus SPY.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare combines strong 21-day active return and moderate beta with defensive characteristics if macro or tariff uncertainty weighs on broad risk appetite.",
"time_window_catalyst": "S&P 500 earnings season plus July labor, CPI, PPI, and retail-sales releases before exit."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude breaks materially below the post-shock range or energy gives back most of its recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy has direct support from elevated crude prices after the Iran-war shock, strong recent active return, and possible earnings/geopolitical catalysts, while using sector equity rather than the more volatile oil ETP.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron and other energy earnings, oil-market reaction to geopolitical supply risk, and July inflation data before August 24."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Market leadership narrows back sharply to mega-cap growth and large value underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Large value has positive prior and recent active performance, lower volatility, low drawdown, and is near its 52-week high, fitting a one-month broadening and earnings-quality thesis.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Broad second-quarter earnings reports and macro releases that test whether market breadth continues beyond mega-cap growth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above the entry level and utilities underperform SPY during the first two weeks.",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "Utilities provide rate-sensitive defensive exposure with positive recent and prior active returns, useful if labor or tariff uncertainty pressures cyclicals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision/minutes and July CPI/PPI prints that may move Treasury yields and defensive yield-sensitive equities."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts away from mega-cap growth toward dividend/value, healthcare, utilities, and energy where supplied evidence shows stronger recent breadth, lower drawdowns in several holdings, and identifiable one-month catalysts. It keeps diversified US equity exposure below the non-benchmark cluster cap and avoids concentrated high-volatility technology despite high quality-evidence ranks there.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY has decent earnings support but faces tariff, rate, and growth-data risks. Selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY and diversify across four non-benchmark clusters with catalysts inside the scoring window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15426,
"latency_seconds": 44.99068231484853,
"output_tokens": 3189,
"reasoning_tokens": 414,
"total_tokens": 18615
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines a high-upside semiconductor rebound with dividend and healthcare defensiveness and an energy inflation hedge. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no non-benchmark exposure cluster exceeds 50%.
Strong aggregate earnings and semiconductor pullback potential support upside, while broader participation and elevated energy prices favor dividend and energy exposure. Defensive healthcare reduces dependence on a single continuation regime.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong reported earnings and positive market breadth sustain the index despite its soft final week.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned 0.78% over 21 sessions and fell 0.59% over five sessions.",
"Aggregate second-quarter S&P 500 earnings were tracking 26.5% above a year earlier.",
"Fresh tariffs and a 38% implied probability of a July rate increase create near-term uncertainty."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Earnings guidance deteriorates broadly while SPY breaks below its recent 4.49% drawdown range.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tariff inflation, a hawkish FOMC outcome, or weak mega-cap guidance causes valuation compression.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 27-31 earnings, the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, and July employment, inflation, and retail-sales data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broadening participation and policy uncertainty continue to favor profitable, defensive dividend payers.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Dividend equities gained 1.15% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 4.17% over 21 sessions.",
"Prior 105-session active return was positive 3.55%.",
"Its 12.00% volatility was below SPY's 13.04%, although it entered at a 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities lose their recent relative leadership and close materially below the July 24 level while SPY advances.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A sharp growth-stock rebound or rising rates rotates capital away from dividend equities after their recent advance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 27-31 earnings, the July 28-29 FOMC decision, and July CPI and retail-sales reports."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The deep pullback stabilizes and strong technology earnings revive the exceptional prior relative trend.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Semiconductors had a 46.66% prior 105-session active return followed by 10.10% 21-session underperformance.",
"The quality evidence score was 0.751, with prior-trend and pullback ranks of 0.985 and 0.970.",
"Volatility was an extreme 53.24%, and Micron and Broadcom fell 7.0% and 2.7% on July 24."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 16,
"forecast_low_pct": -13,
"invalidation_condition": "Semiconductors extend their benchmark-relative decline beyond the existing 10.10% 21-session underperformance as major technology earnings disappoint.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "The prior advance unwinds further as high rates, tariffs, or weak earnings guidance pressure expensive chip shares.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap technology earnings during July 27-31 and subsequent July inflation and employment releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistently elevated crude prices and geopolitical supply risk sustain energy earnings and relative leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy outperformed SPY by 10.52% over 21 sessions and had a positive 4.05% prior active return.",
"Brent settled at $96.78, far above its roughly $72 pre-war level.",
"Brent fell 3.9% on July 24, and energy's recent pullback rank was only 0.045."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 11,
"forecast_low_pct": -10,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent decisively reverses toward its pre-war level or energy equities erase their positive 21-session active return.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil's July 24 decline develops into a larger reversal after an extended 21-session advance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron earnings, geopolitical oil developments, and inflation data released before August 24."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists as employment softens and tariff and policy uncertainty weigh on cyclicals.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare gained 0.92% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 5.24% over 21 sessions.",
"Its 63-session drawdown was a relatively contained 3.74%.",
"Prior active return was negative 9.28% and the quality evidence score was only 0.275."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare turns negative versus SPY over the scoring window and breaks below its recent 63-session drawdown range.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "The recent rebound fades because its longer prior trend remains weak and risk appetite returns to growth sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector earnings and the July employment, CPI, PPI, and retail-sales releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payroll growth and benign monthly core CPI lead markets to price lower future policy rates.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Long Treasuries fell 5.15% relative to SPY over 21 sessions and had a negative 5.46% prior active return.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.68%, up from 3.97% before the Iran war.",
"The option had a strong 0.866 recent-pullback rank and 0.806 low-volatility rank."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year yield rises decisively above 4.71% and the FOMC delivers or signals additional tightening.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Tariffs, elevated energy prices, or a July rate increase push inflation expectations and long yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 28-29 FOMC meeting, July 30 PCE, August 7 employment report, and August 12 CPI."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A hawkish FOMC outcome, tariff uncertainty, and safe-haven demand support the dollar.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The dollar gained 0.88% over five sessions but underperformed SPY by 0.60% over 21 sessions.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.663 with low-volatility and shallow-drawdown ranks of 0.881 and 0.985.",
"Federal-funds futures priced a 38% probability of a July rate increase."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "The FOMC rejects further tightening while U.S. inflation and employment data undershoot, causing the dollar to lose its five-session advance.",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "Soft inflation and employment data eliminate tightening expectations and narrow relative-rate support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The FOMC decision, U.S. GDP and PCE, Bank of Japan meeting, and July employment and inflation reports."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.9,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC decision or renewed rise in Treasury yields could deepen the technology selloff.",
"Tariff pass-through could lift inflation while weakening corporate margins and consumer demand.",
"Crude oil could continue its July 24 reversal, sharply reducing energy-sector returns.",
"Mega-cap technology earnings could disappoint after the semiconductor group's extreme prior advance."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 45,
"expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Semiconductors extend their benchmark-relative decline beyond the existing 10.10% 21-session underperformance as major technology earnings disappoint.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Exceptional prior relative strength and a deep recent pullback create the strongest rebound setup, supported by the imminent mega-cap earnings cycle, though volatility warrants staying below the cluster cap.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap technology earnings during July 27-31 and subsequent July inflation and employment releases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities lose their recent relative leadership and close materially below the July 24 level while SPY advances.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Positive short- and medium-term relative performance, lower volatility, and a defensive profile provide exposure to broadening market participation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 27-31 earnings, the July 28-29 FOMC decision, and July CPI and retail-sales reports."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent decisively reverses toward its pre-war level or energy equities erase their positive 21-session active return.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy equities retain support from elevated crude prices and strong relative performance, while the smaller allocation accounts for oil's sharp extension and reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron earnings, geopolitical oil developments, and inflation data released before August 24."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare turns negative versus SPY over the scoring window and breaks below its recent 63-session drawdown range.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Recent benchmark-relative strength and defensive demand may persist if tariffs, softer employment, or policy uncertainty pressure cyclical equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector earnings and the July employment, CPI, PPI, and retail-sales releases."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.7,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines a high-upside semiconductor rebound with dividend and healthcare defensiveness and an energy inflation hedge. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no non-benchmark exposure cluster exceeds 50%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Strong aggregate earnings and semiconductor pullback potential support upside, while broader participation and elevated energy prices favor dividend and energy exposure. Defensive healthcare reduces dependence on a single continuation regime.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15428,
"latency_seconds": 48.424244411988184,
"output_tokens": 3612,
"reasoning_tokens": 1461,
"total_tokens": 19040
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Energy leads with recent strength; industrials and utilities add defensive balance within cluster caps.
Three holdings selected with bases exceeding SPY; energy cluster at 40% under 50% cap.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad earnings growth of 26.5% continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY 21s return 0.78%",
"YTD 8.3%",
"More constituents rose than fell on July 24"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tariff pass-through pressures margins",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 advance GDP and August 7 employment"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil price stability persists into August",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE 5s return 3.36%",
"USO 5s return 10.27%",
"Brent at $96.78"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $90 or USO 5-day return turns negative",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Supply increase or demand slowdown",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC and August 7 employment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Manufacturing PMI holds above 50",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLI 5s return 1.81%",
"Aerospace defense positive",
"Earnings tracking positive"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLI 5-day return falls below -1%",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"reversal_case": "Tariffs raise input costs sharply",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 advance GDP and August 3 ISM manufacturing"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rates remain range-bound",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLU 5s return 2.48%",
"Yield at 4.68%",
"Defensive sector behavior"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.80%",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "Yield spike above 4.80%",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IWD 21s active return 2.23%",
"YTD 8.1% for Dow",
"Lower drawdown rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD underperforms SPY by more than 2% in 5 days",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth reaccelerates on AI news",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 employment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "European growth stabilizes",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"VEA 5s return 0.01%",
"ECB rates unchanged",
"Euro area inflation 2.8%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "VEA closes below prior 21-day low",
"option_id": "DEVELOPED_EX_US",
"reversal_case": "Energy shock intensifies",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 31 euro-area flash inflation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mid and small caps participate",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"RSP 21s active return 0.74%",
"Equal weight reduces concentration",
"Lower volatility than SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by 1.5% over 5 days",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings dominate again",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 employment data"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.25,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Tariff implementation raises consumer prices faster than expected",
"FOMC signals tighter policy than futures imply",
"Energy reversal if geopolitical tensions ease"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $90 or USO 5-day return turns negative",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Recent 5s and 21s outperformance plus oil price stability support base case above SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC and August 7 employment data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLI 5-day return falls below -1%",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "Positive 5s return and earnings tracking support modest outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 advance GDP and August 3 ISM manufacturing"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.80%",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "Defensive characteristics and positive 5s return provide stability.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.05,
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy leads with recent strength; industrials and utilities add defensive balance within cluster caps.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Three holdings selected with bases exceeding SPY; energy cluster at 40% under 50% cap.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15652,
"latency_seconds": 17.72249778895639,
"output_tokens": 1571,
"reasoning_tokens": 598,
"total_tokens": 17821
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in energy/commodities capturing the dominant recent geopolitical and price momentum while diversifying into value and healthcare for lower-volatility alpha. All active holdings clear the SPY base hurdle and respect the 50% cluster cap.
Energy complex leads on supplied price and macro facts; value and healthcare add breadth across clusters with superior recent active returns and quality metrics versus growth-heavy benchmarks.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid earnings and breadth (more advancers) support modest positive drift",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7411.98, down 0.6% for the week and up 8.3% YTD",
"Aggregate Q2 S&P 500 earnings tracking +26.5% YoY",
"38% probability of 25bp hike priced for July 28-29 FOMC"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY close below recent 63-day drawdown low of -4.49% extended",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tariff uncertainty or hawkish FOMC triggers risk-off",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC, July 30 GDP/PCE, and mega-cap earnings week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply premium and elevated gasoline prices sustain sector strength",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE active return 21s +10.52%, return_5s +3.36%",
"Brent crude at $96.78 after trading near $72 pre-Iran war",
"Energy quality evidence prior active rank 0.836"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 4,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent sustained move below $85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Sharp crude decline or demand destruction from higher prices",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil price path and any residual Iran-related headlines before Aug 24"
},
{
"continuation_case": "War premium and inventory tightness keep crude elevated into August",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"USO return_5s +10.27%, return_21s +27.82%, prior_105s_active +41.01%",
"Brent settled $96.78, down 3.9% on day but far above pre-war $72",
"Gasoline national average $4.10 vs $3.93 one month earlier"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 15,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "USO or Brent drop exceeding 10% from entry within two weeks",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation or OPEC+ supply response collapses the premium",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly oil inventories and geopolitical updates through scoring window"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy-driven commodity complex momentum persists with inflation residual",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"PDBC return_5s +4.06%, active_return_21s +12.98%",
"Prior active rank 0.851 and energy-linked commodity strength",
"June CPI energy component still +15.7% YoY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "PDBC drawdown beyond recent max of -16.55% or oil-led collapse",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Global growth scare or dollar spike reverses broad commodities",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI/PPI and any tariff inflation pass-through data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value and equal-weight leadership continues amid rate and tariff uncertainty",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWD active_return_21s +2.23%, return_5s +0.08%, distance_52w_high only -0.49%",
"Quality evidence score 0.632 with high shallow-drawdown rank 0.836",
"RSP outperforming SPY on 5s and 21s windows"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD underperforms SPY by >1.5% in first 10 trading days",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth/tech rebound on dovish FOMC or strong mega-cap earnings",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC outcome and value-sector earnings reports"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows and relative strength persist through macro data volatility",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active_return_21s +5.24%, return_5s +0.92%",
"Shallow max_drawdown_63s -3.74% and distance_52w_high -1.14%",
"Defensive sector with positive absolute returns amid mixed equity tape"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turns negative versus SPY by more than 2%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation back into tech/growth or sector-specific negative news",
"time_window_catalyst": "Healthcare earnings and July employment/CPI defensive bid"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI/semiconductor structural demand reasserts after pullback",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH active_return_21s -10.10%, max_drawdown_63s -16.80%, distance_52w_high -16.10%",
"High volatility_63s 53.24% and Micron down 7% on July 24",
"Prior active strength but recent sharp pullback"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -12,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH fails to reclaim 21-day relative strength versus SPY",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Further earnings or tariff-related de-rating of high-beta tech",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap tech earnings including any semiconductor supply-chain commentary"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dividend factor continues to attract flows in uncertain rate/tariff environment",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD return_5s +1.15%, active_return_21s +4.17%, at 52w high",
"Quality evidence prior active rank 0.806",
"Low beta_spy 0.274 and defensive dividend profile"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD breaks below recent lows or underperforms value peers",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Broad risk-on or rising yields pressure dividend stocks",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and income-oriented flows around macro prints"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 2.78,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rapid oil price reversal if geopolitical premium fades",
"FOMC hawkish surprise or tariff-driven risk-off hitting cyclicals",
"High volatility in OIL and ENERGY amplifying drawdowns",
"Commodity correlation breakdown if dollar strengthens sharply"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude sustained drop below $85 or sharp risk-off equity selloff",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Oil price persistence and energy sector momentum from geopolitical premium support outperformance versus broad equities over the one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued elevated Brent crude near $97 and any further supply headlines before August 24 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent settlement below $80 or rapid de-escalation removing war premium",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct crude exposure captures the largest recent active returns and geopolitical premium more efficiently than equities for the short horizon.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil inventory data and any escalation residual from Iran-related supply risk through mid-August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodity index reversal with oil and metals simultaneous decline >5%",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Diversified commodity basket benefits from energy spillover and inflation residual while offering lower single-name oil volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity complex reaction to July PCE and CPI prints plus any tariff pass-through signals"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp growth/tech rebound or value underperformance >2% versus SPY in first two weeks",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value tilt shows positive active return and lower drawdown versus growth/tech, aligning with equal-weight outperformance and defensive rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision and July employment/CPI data supporting value over growth"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector-specific policy or earnings disappointment driving underperformance versus SPY",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent active return, defensive characteristics, and shallow drawdown provide ballast with base case above SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Healthcare earnings subset and defensive flows around FOMC and macro data"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 3.68,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in energy/commodities capturing the dominant recent geopolitical and price momentum while diversifying into value and healthcare for lower-volatility alpha. All active holdings clear the SPY base hurdle and respect the 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy complex leads on supplied price and macro facts; value and healthcare add breadth across clusters with superior recent active returns and quality metrics versus growth-heavy benchmarks.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16513,
"latency_seconds": 55.950137705076486,
"output_tokens": 2726,
"reasoning_tokens": 772,
"total_tokens": 20011
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)30%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Broad Commodities (PDBC)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15%Financials Sector (XLF)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Energy Sector (XLE)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Energy Sector (XLE)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15%Utilities Sector (XLU)15% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)45%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30%Energy Sector (XLE)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)10% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)40%Industrials Sector (XLI)30%Utilities Sector (XLU)30% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Crude Oil (USO)20%Broad Commodities (PDBC)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15% | 0.62 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-24 | 240.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-24 | 93.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-24 | 28.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-24 | 28.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-24 | 114.02 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-24 | 150.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-24 | 36.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-24 | 35.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-24 | 57.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-24 | 17.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-24 | 59.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-24 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-24 | 53.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-24 | 106.30 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-24 | 109.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-24 | 84.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-24 | 38.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-24 | 136.69 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-24 | 88.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-24 | 69.71 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-24 | 94.64 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-24 | 57.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-24 | 59.62 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-24 | 213.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-24 | 14.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-24 | 104.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-24 | 88.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-24 | 56.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-24 | 76.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-24 | 162.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-24 | 79.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-24 | 48.02 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-24 | 182.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-24 | 93.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-24 | 47.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-24 | 106.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-24 | 91.21 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-24 | 56.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-24 | 83.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-24 | 51.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-24 | 101.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-24 | 75.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-24 | 105.55 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-24 | 684.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-24 | 45.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-24 | 75.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-24 | 738.93 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-24 | 561.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-24 | 91.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-24 | 52.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-24 | 87.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-24 | 51.28 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-24 | 61.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-24 | 162.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-24 | 98.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-24 | 175.88 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-24 | 364.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-24 | 107.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-24 | 47.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-24 | 97.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-24 | 33.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-24 | 28.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-24 | 117.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-24 | 248.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-24 | 77.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-24 | 75.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-24 | 306.39 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-24 | 291.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-24 | 221.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-24 | 46.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 016707fe54a9...13685123 |
| manifest.yaml | 9ca38f88d9f0...5a3ca40e |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | ebd65f39ea9f...2ded1743 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 9210d3e9a412...7036bbd3 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 12c4f592509d...e2c3bdfb |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 3c027e726e5d...a91b36fa |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 069fb142aa63...47b2ae76 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 40986d7de453...b3419096 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |