Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 67.9 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward defensive equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Energy Sector (XLE) is the largest aggregate allocation at +22.50%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-21 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-20260722-1m
33,777 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
US Dividend Equities (SCHD)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-22-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-22
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-23T04:04:25Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-23T09:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-22
- Exit date: 2026-08-21
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 as the one-month entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, August 21, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — Information Available Through July 22, 2026
Research cutoff: July 23, 2026 at 04:04:25 UTC. The weekly scoring window ends at the July 29 close; the monthly scoring window ends at the August 21 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 22 market close
- Associated Press reported the S&P 500 down 0.1% to 7,498.96, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down less than 0.1% to 52,218.58, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6% to 25,690.90.
- Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07 per barrel after trading above $95. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.65%, compared with 4.63% on July 21.
- The FTSE 100 rose 1.2% and the Hang Seng declined 1.0%.
- Super Micro Computer rose 19.8%, AT&T rose 3.5%, Philip Morris International rose 3.3%, and GE Vernova declined 8.7%.
## Company results released after the close
- Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.796 billion, up 24% from a year earlier. Google Services revenue rose 15%, Google Search and other advertising rose 17%, YouTube advertising rose 13%, and Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.768 billion.
- Alphabet operating income rose 30% to $40.770 billion and operating margin was 34%, compared with 32%. Google Cloud operating income was $8.814 billion and Other Bets had a $1.799 billion operating loss.
- Alphabet reported $97.983 billion of other income, primarily unrealized equity-security gains. Net income was $112.107 billion. The results are unaudited, and unrealized gains may vary between periods.
- Tesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.236 billion, up 26% from a year earlier. Automotive revenue was $20.516 billion, energy generation and storage revenue was $3.139 billion, and services and other revenue was $4.581 billion.
- Tesla's gross margin was 16.8%, compared with 17.2% a year earlier. Operating income was $398 million, operating margin was 1.4%, and GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.114 billion.
- Tesla reported $4.697 billion of operating cash flow, $5.789 billion of capital spending, negative $1.092 billion of free cash flow, and $43.524 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The results are unaudited.
## U.S. economy and energy
- BLS reported June CPI down 0.4% for the month and up 3.5% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and up 2.6% over 12 months.
- BLS reported June final-demand PPI down 0.3% for the month and up 5.5% over 12 months. Final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% for the month and 5.1% over 12 months.
- June nonfarm payroll employment increased by 57,000, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% over 12 months. April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- Census reported advance June retail and food-services sales up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point sampling interval and was not adjusted for price changes.
- Federal Reserve data showed June industrial production up 0.1% and capacity utilization at 76.1%. BEA's third estimate showed first-quarter real GDP up at a 2.1% annual rate.
- Census reported June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from revised May; the monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 15.9 percentage-point interval.
- For the week ended July 17, EIA reported commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve up 2.0 million barrels, gasoline up 0.8 million, distillates up 1.4 million, and total commercial petroleum inventories up 11.6 million.
- EIA reported refinery utilization at 96.1%. Four-week total product supplied averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, down 1% from a year earlier. Weekly estimates are preliminary and product supplied is a demand proxy.
## Monetary policy
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 12–0 vote. Its statement said inflation remained elevated relative to the 2% goal and cited Middle East conflict as a source of uncertainty and supply shocks.
- The ECB's deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates were 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% before its scheduled July 23 decision.
- The Bank of England policy decision and Monetary Policy Report are scheduled for July 30. The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting starts July 30, with a statement and outlook report scheduled for July 31.
## Scheduled events
- July 23: ECB policy decision at 14:15 CET and press conference at 14:45 CET; RTX second-quarter results before the U.S. open.
- July 24: U.S. June new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET; Bank of England business-conditions and Decision Maker Panel publications.
- July 28: First day of the two-day FOMC meeting; Visa fiscal third-quarter results after the U.S. close.
- July 29: FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, before the weekly scoring close. Microsoft and Qualcomm results are scheduled after the weekly close.
- July 30: Advance second-quarter U.S. GDP and June personal income, outlays, and PCE prices at 8:30 a.m. ET; Bank of England decision; first day of the Bank of Japan meeting.
- July 31: Bank of Japan statement and outlook report; final July University of Michigan sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 3 and 5: ISM July Manufacturing and Services PMIs. August 4: June U.S. trade and JOLTS.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation. August 12 and 13: July CPI and PPI.
- August 19: Minutes of the July FOMC meeting. August 21: July state employment and unemployment.
## Neutrality and data boundary
These datapoints contain no allocation instruction, option ordering, subjective commentary, or affected-choice mapping. Source URLs remain only in the audit report. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. The model input separately supplies the complete mechanical full-universe context and the complete frozen Portfolio V2.2 evidence table.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-22-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-22'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-23T09:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-e43c7885fb22
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-23T04:01:25.186881+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 as the one-month entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, August 21, 2026 as the one-month exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-22'
exit_date: '2026-08-21'
created_at: '2026-07-23T04:01:25.186881+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.2 monthly round prepared from a new July 22 close research package using direct public-source browsing. Participant tools, browsing, search, retrieval, and follow-up calls are disabled.# Market Briefing — Information Available Through July 22, 2026
Research cutoff: July 23, 2026 at 04:04:25 UTC. The weekly scoring window ends at the July 29 close; the monthly scoring window ends at the August 21 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 22 market close
- Associated Press reported the S&P 500 down 0.1% to 7,498.96, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down less than 0.1% to 52,218.58, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6% to 25,690.90.
- Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07 per barrel after trading above $95. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.65%, compared with 4.63% on July 21.
- The FTSE 100 rose 1.2% and the Hang Seng declined 1.0%.
- Super Micro Computer rose 19.8%, AT&T rose 3.5%, Philip Morris International rose 3.3%, and GE Vernova declined 8.7%.
## Company results released after the close
- Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.796 billion, up 24% from a year earlier. Google Services revenue rose 15%, Google Search and other advertising rose 17%, YouTube advertising rose 13%, and Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.768 billion.
- Alphabet operating income rose 30% to $40.770 billion and operating margin was 34%, compared with 32%. Google Cloud operating income was $8.814 billion and Other Bets had a $1.799 billion operating loss.
- Alphabet reported $97.983 billion of other income, primarily unrealized equity-security gains. Net income was $112.107 billion. The results are unaudited, and unrealized gains may vary between periods.
- Tesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.236 billion, up 26% from a year earlier. Automotive revenue was $20.516 billion, energy generation and storage revenue was $3.139 billion, and services and other revenue was $4.581 billion.
- Tesla's gross margin was 16.8%, compared with 17.2% a year earlier. Operating income was $398 million, operating margin was 1.4%, and GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.114 billion.
- Tesla reported $4.697 billion of operating cash flow, $5.789 billion of capital spending, negative $1.092 billion of free cash flow, and $43.524 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The results are unaudited.
## U.S. economy and energy
- BLS reported June CPI down 0.4% for the month and up 3.5% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and up 2.6% over 12 months.
- BLS reported June final-demand PPI down 0.3% for the month and up 5.5% over 12 months. Final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% for the month and 5.1% over 12 months.
- June nonfarm payroll employment increased by 57,000, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% over 12 months. April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- Census reported advance June retail and food-services sales up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point sampling interval and was not adjusted for price changes.
- Federal Reserve data showed June industrial production up 0.1% and capacity utilization at 76.1%. BEA's third estimate showed first-quarter real GDP up at a 2.1% annual rate.
- Census reported June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from revised May; the monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 15.9 percentage-point interval.
- For the week ended July 17, EIA reported commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve up 2.0 million barrels, gasoline up 0.8 million, distillates up 1.4 million, and total commercial petroleum inventories up 11.6 million.
- EIA reported refinery utilization at 96.1%. Four-week total product supplied averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, down 1% from a year earlier. Weekly estimates are preliminary and product supplied is a demand proxy.
## Monetary policy
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 12–0 vote. Its statement said inflation remained elevated relative to the 2% goal and cited Middle East conflict as a source of uncertainty and supply shocks.
- The ECB's deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates were 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% before its scheduled July 23 decision.
- The Bank of England policy decision and Monetary Policy Report are scheduled for July 30. The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting starts July 30, with a statement and outlook report scheduled for July 31.
## Scheduled events
- July 23: ECB policy decision at 14:15 CET and press conference at 14:45 CET; RTX second-quarter results before the U.S. open.
- July 24: U.S. June new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET; Bank of England business-conditions and Decision Maker Panel publications.
- July 28: First day of the two-day FOMC meeting; Visa fiscal third-quarter results after the U.S. close.
- July 29: FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, before the weekly scoring close. Microsoft and Qualcomm results are scheduled after the weekly close.
- July 30: Advance second-quarter U.S. GDP and June personal income, outlays, and PCE prices at 8:30 a.m. ET; Bank of England decision; first day of the Bank of Japan meeting.
- July 31: Bank of Japan statement and outlook report; final July University of Michigan sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 3 and 5: ISM July Manufacturing and Services PMIs. August 4: June U.S. trade and JOLTS.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation. August 12 and 13: July CPI and PPI.
- August 19: Minutes of the July FOMC meeting. August 21: July state employment and unemployment.
## Neutrality and data boundary
These datapoints contain no allocation instruction, option ordering, subjective commentary, or affected-choice mapping. Source URLs remain only in the audit report. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. The model input separately supplies the complete mechanical full-universe context and the complete frozen Portfolio V2.2 evidence table.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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"files": {
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Tilt toward semiconductors and Taiwan, which combine the strongest prior relative trends with the deepest recent pullbacks and are supported by fresh AI capex evidence (Google Cloud +82%, SMCI +19.8%), balanced with energy as an oil-shock hedge and dividend quality as event-risk ballast.
Pullback-in-uptrend AI/semis exposure plus energy hedge and defensive dividend sleeve, anchored with 15% SPY, targeting ~1% alpha over the month.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid earnings (Alphabet +24% revenue) and stable policy support drift higher",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 at 7,498.96, only -1.35% off its 52-week high",
"June core CPI +2.6% y/y with Fed on hold at 3.50%-3.75%",
"Q1 GDP +2.1%; payrolls +57k with downward revisions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-off with 10y yield above 5% or oil above $110",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Oil shock plus hawkish Fed and softening labor market trigger correction",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, CPI Aug 12, jobs report Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI capex evidence remains strong; pullback in dominant uptrend resolves higher into earnings",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return +60.9%, strongest trend in universe; recent -12.7% active pullback",
"Google Cloud revenue +82% to $24.8B signals sustained AI infrastructure spending",
"Super Micro Computer rose 19.8% on July 22"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Hyperscaler capex guidance cuts or SMH breaking below -20% from 52w high",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Momentum unwind continues; 52.9% volatility and 2.3 beta amplify any macro shock",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap and chip earnings late July through mid-August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI chip supply chain demand (Google Cloud +82%) restores upward trend after pullback",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active return +57.2% with -9.2% recent active pullback",
"Quality evidence score 0.746, among the highest in universe"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained dollar rally or Taiwan-specific geopolitical escalation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"reversal_case": "Continued high-beta unwind or geopolitical/currency stress",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chip sector earnings and AI demand data through August 21"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent supply risk and 96.1% refinery utilization keep crude elevated",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent +3.4% to $94.07, traded above $95",
"Fed cites Middle East conflict as source of supply shocks",
"XLE +9.1% active over 21 sessions with -0.20 SPY beta"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below $85 on supply resolution",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Inventories building (+11.6M barrels total) and demand -1% y/y could cap prices",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East developments and weekly EIA data through August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sticky inflation and event-heavy calendar favor quality dividend payers",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+3.58% active over 21 sessions, -0.42% from 52-week high",
"Beta 0.27 and 11.9% volatility, lowest-risk equity outperformer"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong dovish surprise triggering mega-cap growth melt-up",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on growth rally leaves low-beta value behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and August CPI keep defensive demand supported"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Middle East risk and elevated inflation could revive safe-haven demand",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-23.5% off 52-week high with -22.5% prior active return",
"Rising 10y yield (4.65%) and firm dollar are headwinds"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Real yields falling sharply after dovish Fed",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Broken downtrend, rising real yields, strong dollar keep pressure on",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and CPI could shift real-rate expectations"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls (+57k with -74k revisions) could eventually rally duration",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10y yield 4.65% rising; TLT -2.72% over 21 sessions",
"CPI 3.5% y/y and PPI 5.5% y/y keep inflation elevated"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharply weaker Aug 7 jobs report driving yields down",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and oil above $94 keep yields under upward pressure",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Factor could rebound if AI leadership resumes",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-9.4% active over 21 sessions after +26.4% prior active run",
"36.3% volatility and -12.5% drawdown with 1.52 beta"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued factor unwind below recent lows",
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"reversal_case": "Momentum crashes tend to persist; high overlap with already-selected semis exposure",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech earnings season through mid-August"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"cost_usd": 0.46826,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.08,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC on July 29 with sticky 3.5% CPI could hit high-beta tech",
"Oil above $95 could squeeze margins and consumer demand, hurting equities broadly",
"Semiconductor pullback could continue rather than revert (52.9% volatility)",
"Taiwan geopolitical or currency shock",
"Energy positions vulnerable to a rapid oil retracement"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 3,
"invalidation_condition": "AI capex guidance cuts or hawkish FOMC pushing 10y yields well above 4.8%",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strongest prior relative trend (+60.9% prior active) with deepest recent pullback; AI capex signals (Alphabet Cloud +82%, SMCI +19.8%) support mean reversion upward into Nvidia-adjacent earnings season.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap tech earnings (Microsoft, Qualcomm July 29+) and AI capex commentary through mid-August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp dollar rally or regional geopolitical escalation hitting Taiwan equities",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Semiconductor supply-chain proxy with strong prior trend (+57% prior active) and sharp recent pullback; benefits from same AI demand evidence with lower drawdown than Korea.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global chip earnings and AI infrastructure spending updates through August 21"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falling back below $85 on supply normalization",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent above $94 with Middle East supply risk cited by the Fed; XLE +9.1% active over 21 sessions with negative SPY beta offers hedge against oil-driven equity weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing Middle East supply risk and weekly EIA inventory data through August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rally led by mega-cap growth leaving low-beta value behind",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Low-beta (0.27) quality equity outperforming recently (+3.58% active 21s), near 52-week high; ballast against FOMC/CPI event risk with sticky 3.5% CPI.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC and August 12 CPI favor defensive dividend payers if inflation stays elevated"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish Fed plus oil shock driving a broad equity drawdown beyond 5%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark anchor to control tracking error around heavy event calendar.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, Q2 GDP July 30, July jobs Aug 7, CPI Aug 12"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.08,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward semiconductors and Taiwan, which combine the strongest prior relative trends with the deepest recent pullbacks and are supported by fresh AI capex evidence (Google Cloud +82%, SMCI +19.8%), balanced with energy as an oil-shock hedge and dividend quality as event-risk ballast.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Pullback-in-uptrend AI/semis exposure plus energy hedge and defensive dividend sleeve, anchored with 15% SPY, targeting ~1% alpha over the month.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.46826,
"input_tokens": 27591,
"latency_seconds": 60.380829949863255,
"output_tokens": 3847,
"total_tokens": 31438
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward defensive and value equity clusters (healthcare, financials, dividend) that show recent positive active returns and shallow drawdowns while inflation moderates and rates stay elevated. Anchored with SPY.
Defensive/value rotation with recent momentum and low drawdown provides modest alpha over SPY into a busy macro window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market near highs with resilient earnings from Alphabet",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY down 0.1% at close 7498.96",
"21s active return baseline 0.00%",
"distance to 52w high -1.35%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "S&P falls more than 5% on macro shock",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish Fed or weak payrolls trigger pullback",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, GDP/PCE July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues with strong relative momentum and low drawdown",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +5.84% 21s",
"max drawdown only -3.74%",
"low volatility 18.04%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turns negative",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on tech surge pulls flows away from defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 pharma/biotech earnings through August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve and elevated rates aid net interest margins",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +3.97% 21s",
"max drawdown -2.73%",
"low volatility 13.06%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperforms SPY on rate shock",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit stress or rate cut expectations hurt margins",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, bank earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low-beta defensive equity with recent strength holds up",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +3.58% 21s",
"5s return +1.73%",
"low beta 0.274"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD active return turns negative",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rate spike hurts dividend payers",
"time_window_catalyst": "PCE and FOMC late July"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil momentum continues with Brent above 95",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +9.10% 21s",
"Brent up 3.4% to 94.07",
"high drawdown -13.21%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude falls back below $90",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Rising inventories and demand proxy down 1% suggest pullback",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly inventories, OPEC"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value tilt benefits from rotation",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +1.23% 21s",
"low drawdown -2.40%",
"5s +0.10%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD lags SPY materially",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth leadership resumes",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and PCE"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap earnings beats reignite growth",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return -4.82% 21s",
"5s -1.73%",
"high volatility 24.40%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech breaks down below prior support",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Rate sensitivity and stretched valuations pressure tech",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft/Qualcomm earnings late July"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration rallies if Fed signals cuts",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return -1.14% 21s",
"10y yield 4.65% rising",
"low volatility 4.08%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields rise above 4.8%",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation keeps yields high",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.535,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC on July 29 triggers broad equity selloff hurting all holdings",
"Sharp mega-cap tech rally lifts SPY faster than defensive tilts",
"Oil spike reignites inflation and pressures rate-sensitive names"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turns negative and defensive rotation reverses",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent active return (+5.84% 21s), low drawdown, deep prior pullback offering mean-reversion with defensive characteristics.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings and PCE data through August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF falls below SPY on rate shock",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive active return (+3.97% 21s), low volatility and drawdown, supported by steepening yield curve context.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and bank earnings"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD active return turns negative",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Strong +3.58% active return, shallow drawdown, low beta defensive equity with recent strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PCE and FOMC late July"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity selloff on hawkish Fed",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure to anchor portfolio.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, GDP/PCE July 30"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.235,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward defensive and value equity clusters (healthcare, financials, dividend) that show recent positive active returns and shallow drawdowns while inflation moderates and rates stay elevated. Anchored with SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive/value rotation with recent momentum and low drawdown provides modest alpha over SPY into a busy macro window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27597,
"latency_seconds": 38.93255499890074,
"output_tokens": 2505,
"total_tokens": 30102
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio balances the strong momentum in the energy sector with the defensive characteristics of dividend equities. This combination aims to capture upside from rising oil prices while mitigating downside risk.
Balanced approach using Energy for growth and Dividend for defense.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Earnings growth supports current valuations.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 down 0.1% to 7,498.96 on July 22."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant negative earnings surprises from mega-cap tech.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Inflation concerns lead to higher rates and lower valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming FOMC meeting and tech earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sustained high oil prices drive sector earnings.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07 per barrel.",
"Commercial crude inventories up 2.0 million barrels."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp decline in crude oil prices below $85.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand destruction or supply increases lower oil prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA inventory reports."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Investors seek yield and stability in a volatile market.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND return_5s is 1.73%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Widespread dividend cuts across major holdings.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rising interest rates make dividend yields less attractive.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings season highlighting dividend sustainability."
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI investments continue to drive growth.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Alphabet reported Q2 revenue up 24%.",
"Nasdaq Composite down 0.6% on July 22."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Major tech companies missing earnings estimates.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Valuation concerns and regulatory scrutiny weigh on the sector.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Qualcomm earnings on July 29."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflation remains sticky, keeping yields high.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.65%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Fed signals a pivot to rate cuts.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Economic slowdown prompts expectations of rate cuts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July FOMC meeting and CPI data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical uncertainty and inflation fears support gold.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD return_5s is 1.85%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant strengthening of the US Dollar.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Strong dollar and rising real rates pressure gold prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Changes in real interest rates."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden drop in oil prices could negatively impact the Energy allocation.",
"A broad market downturn could drag down Dividend equities despite their defensive nature."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant build in crude inventories or OPEC production increase.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy sector shows strong recent momentum and benefits from rising crude prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued crude inventory draws and geopolitical tensions."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad market sell-off impacting value and dividend stocks.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities offer defensive characteristics and have shown positive recent returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports confirming stable dividend payouts."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio balances the strong momentum in the energy sector with the defensive characteristics of dividend equities. This combination aims to capture upside from rising oil prices while mitigating downside risk.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Balanced approach using Energy for growth and Dividend for defense.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17117,
"latency_seconds": 13.523863961920142,
"output_tokens": 1498,
"total_tokens": 18615
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio avoids relying solely on U.S. mega-cap beta and emphasizes options with supplied evidence of recent active strength, identifiable one-month catalysts, and diversification across energy, defensive U.S. equity, healthcare, and international equity. Oil receives the largest weight due to the strongest near-term price and macro catalyst, but is capped below the energy cluster limit because inventory builds create reversal risk.
Base forecasts for all selected holdings exceed the SPY base forecast. The weighted base return is 1.54%, implying 0.74 percentage points of expected alpha versus SPY over the one-month window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad U.S. equities remain near highs and could continue if macro data support soft landing expectations and earnings breadth improves.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 was down 0.1% at the July 22 close and SPY return_5s was -0.98%.",
"SPY return_21s was 0.41%, volatility_63s was 12.94%, and distance_52w_high was -1.35%.",
"Scheduled catalysts include FOMC on July 29, advance Q2 GDP on July 30, July payrolls on August 7, and CPI/PPI on August 12-13."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks materially below recent lows or upcoming macro data sharply worsen the growth/inflation mix.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Cap-weighted leadership can weaken further if growth stocks lag, rates rise, or upcoming macro data revive inflation and slowdown concerns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, payrolls, CPI/PPI, and large-cap earnings through the August 21 exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong recent crude momentum can persist if geopolitical supply risk stays elevated and traders continue to price tighter energy conditions.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"USO return_5s was 8.49% and return_21s was 16.85%, with active_return_21s of 16.45%.",
"Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07 after trading above $95.",
"The Fed statement cited Middle East conflict as a source of uncertainty and supply shocks."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude reverses below its recent breakout or EIA data continue to show broad inventory builds with weakening product supplied.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "EIA reported crude, gasoline, distillate, and total petroleum inventory builds, while four-week product supplied was down 1% from a year earlier, creating risk that the surge is overextended.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 23-August 21 EIA inventory data, Middle East supply-risk headlines, and energy-price follow-through."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent leadership by lower-beta, dividend-oriented equities may continue if investors favor profitable defensive income exposures into policy and inflation events.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND return_5s was 1.73% and active_return_21s was 3.58%.",
"Volatility_63s was 11.89%, beta_spy_252s was 0.274, and distance_52w_high was -0.42%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.576, with prior active rank 0.731 and shallow drawdown rank 0.791."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities lose their recent active leadership versus SPY or rates rise sharply enough to pressure income-oriented equities.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "If risk appetite shifts back toward high-beta growth and rates move higher, dividend equities may lag SPY despite their recent relative strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July FOMC, July CPI/PPI, and ongoing rotation toward lower-volatility dividend equities before August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Healthcare's low beta and strong recent active return can persist if investors rotate toward defensive earnings exposure during macro uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE active_return_21s was 5.84% and return_5s was 0.72%.",
"Max_drawdown_63s was -3.74%, with corr_spy_252s of 0.268 and beta_spy_252s of 0.336.",
"June payroll gains slowed to 57,000 and unemployment was 4.2%, supporting interest in defensive sectors if growth concerns persist."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare's 21-day active outperformance fades or risk appetite rotates decisively back into high-beta growth.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "The sector has weak prior active rank and could reverse if recent outperformance is just a short-term defensive bounce or if broad risk appetite strengthens.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive-sector rotation around FOMC, GDP, payrolls, CPI/PPI, and sector earnings/news through the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive recent relative performance can continue if the Bank of England decision and global risk conditions support UK large-cap and dividend-oriented exposures.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"UNITED_KINGDOM return_5s was 1.00% and active_return_21s was 2.99%.",
"Volatility_63s was 16.74%, beta_spy_252s was 0.717, and distance_52w_high was -1.57%.",
"The Bank of England policy decision and Monetary Policy Report are scheduled for July 30."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "UK equities break recent relative strength or sterling/UK policy news turns materially adverse.",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"reversal_case": "UK equities could lag if the policy decision disappoints, sterling moves adversely, or global equity risk appetite weakens.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report on July 30, plus global risk and currency moves through August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior trend and major technology earnings could restart growth leadership if investors look through the recent pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"NASDAQ100 had a high quality evidence score of 0.740, with prior active rank 0.896 and recent pullback rank 0.836.",
"Return_5s was -1.73% and active_return_21s was -4.82%.",
"Alphabet reported revenue up 24% and Google Cloud revenue up 82%, while Tesla reported operating margin of 1.4% and negative free cash flow."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "NASDAQ100 fails to reclaim recent relative strength or rates rise enough to pressure long-duration growth valuations.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Weak recent relative performance, high volatility of 24.40%, and earnings dispersion create risk that mega-cap growth continues to lag SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Technology earnings, FOMC rate signals, GDP, payrolls, and inflation data before August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy equities can extend gains if crude strength continues and supply-risk headlines support earnings expectations.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY return_5s was 4.78% and active_return_21s was 9.10%.",
"Prior_105s_active_return was 4.69%, but max_drawdown_63s was -13.21%.",
"Brent crude rose 3.4%, while EIA reported total commercial petroleum inventories up 11.6 million barrels."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Energy equities stop tracking crude higher or crude reverses on sustained inventory builds.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Inventory builds, high sector volatility, and sensitivity to oil-price reversals could make energy equities underperform after a sharp move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA inventory reports, crude-price moves, Middle East supply-risk headlines, and sector earnings through August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The dollar can continue to firm if U.S. rates remain relatively attractive or global risk events drive reserve-currency demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"US_DOLLAR return_5s was 0.71% and return_21s was 0.32%.",
"Volatility_63s was 4.86%, max_drawdown_63s was -0.98%, and distance_52w_high was -0.28%.",
"The ECB decision is scheduled for July 23, with FOMC on July 29 and Bank of Japan on July 31."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The dollar loses recent upside momentum after central-bank decisions or U.S. yields fall sharply versus global peers.",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "A dovish FOMC or relatively hawkish non-U.S. central-bank decisions could weaken the dollar over the month.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECB, FOMC, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan policy decisions before the exit close."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.74,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil's recent surge reverses if inventory builds and weaker product supplied outweigh geopolitical supply risk.",
"A dovish growth rally or mega-cap technology rebound causes SPY to outperform defensive and international tilts.",
"July FOMC, CPI/PPI, GDP, or payrolls surprise markets and trigger broad risk-off selling.",
"Currency or policy surprises around the Bank of England decision hurt UK equities."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude reverses below its recent breakout or EIA data continue to show broad inventory builds with weakening product supplied.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Crude has the clearest one-month momentum and macro catalyst set, with Brent up sharply and energy-supply uncertainty noted, while keeping energy exposure below the 50% cap.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 23-August 21 EIA inventory data, Middle East supply-risk headlines, and energy-price follow-through."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities lose their recent active leadership versus SPY or rates rise sharply enough to pressure income-oriented equities.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities show positive 5-day and 21-day active strength, low drawdown, and lower beta than SPY, giving a defensive equity path to outperform if breadth remains stronger than cap-weighted growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July FOMC, July CPI/PPI, and ongoing rotation toward lower-volatility dividend equities before August 21."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare's 21-day active outperformance fades or risk appetite rotates decisively back into high-beta growth.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare has strong recent active return, a shallow drawdown, and low correlation/beta versus SPY, offering non-tech defensive equity exposure during a data-heavy month.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive-sector rotation around FOMC, GDP, payrolls, CPI/PPI, and sector earnings/news through the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "UK equities break recent relative strength or sterling/UK policy news turns materially adverse.",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"rationale": "UK equities provide international diversification with positive recent returns and active strength, plus a Bank of England decision inside the scoring window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of England decision and Monetary Policy Report on July 30, plus global risk and currency moves through August 21."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.54,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio avoids relying solely on U.S. mega-cap beta and emphasizes options with supplied evidence of recent active strength, identifiable one-month catalysts, and diversification across energy, defensive U.S. equity, healthcare, and international equity. Oil receives the largest weight due to the strongest near-term price and macro catalyst, but is capped below the energy cluster limit because inventory builds create reversal risk.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Base forecasts for all selected holdings exceed the SPY base forecast. The weighted base return is 1.54%, implying 0.74 percentage points of expected alpha versus SPY over the one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15444,
"latency_seconds": 35.976859611226246,
"output_tokens": 2763,
"reasoning_tokens": 126,
"total_tokens": 18207
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines a catalyst-backed technology rebound with defensive dividend exposure, a BOJ-driven Japan opportunity, and limited energy exposure. Technology is capped at 50%, and the remaining holdings span distinct economic clusters.
Selected holdings all exceed SPY's 1.0% base forecast. The weighted base return is 2.08%, implying 1.08 percentage points of expected alpha.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Cooling monthly inflation and upcoming large-cap earnings could support renewed index gains near its 52-week high.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned -0.98% over five sessions and 0.41% over 21 sessions.",
"June core CPI was unchanged for the month, but the 10-year Treasury yield was 4.65%.",
"The July 29 FOMC decision and major July macro releases occur before the exit."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Core inflation reaccelerates materially and the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.80%.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated producer inflation, weak payroll growth, or a higher-for-longer rate signal could pressure valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC decision, major technology earnings, and July employment and inflation releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Secular AI and cloud demand plus the deep relative pullback can restart the strong prior trend.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return was 60.90%, while 21-session active return fell to -12.66%.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.758, including 0.985 prior-trend and pullback ranks.",
"Alphabet reported Google Cloud revenue growth of 82%; Microsoft and Qualcomm results are scheduled for July 29."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 18,
"forecast_low_pct": -14,
"invalidation_condition": "Semiconductors remain below their July 22 level after Microsoft and Qualcomm results or their 21-session active return falls below -15%.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "The 52.86% volatility, 2.308 beta, and prior 60.90% active gain leave the group vulnerable to further de-rating.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Qualcomm results on July 29, followed by July macro releases through August 13."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong mega-cap operating growth and a recent relative pullback support renewed leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"NASDAQ100 had an 11.20% prior active return but a -4.82% recent active return.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.740 with a 0.836 pullback rank.",
"Alphabet reported 24% revenue growth, 30% operating-income growth, and an operating-margin increase to 34%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "NASDAQ100 fails to outperform SPY after Alphabet and Microsoft results or the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.80%.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "A 4.65% 10-year yield and 1.388 beta create material duration and valuation sensitivity.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market reaction to Alphabet results, Microsoft results on July 29, and the July 29 FOMC decision."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive, profitable equities can retain leadership if growth slows and inflation permits a stable policy outlook.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND gained 1.73% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 3.58% over 21 sessions.",
"It was only 0.42% below its 52-week high with 11.89% volatility.",
"June core CPI was unchanged and payroll growth slowed to 57,000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "DIVIDEND loses its 21-session relative lead over SPY while the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.80%.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A rapid return to speculative growth leadership or a sharp yield increase could reverse the defensive rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC decision and the July employment, CPI, and PPI releases through August 13."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The strong prior trend can resume if the BOJ avoids an unexpectedly restrictive policy signal.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Japan had a 6.01% prior active return followed by a -5.34% recent active return.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.724, with 0.821 prior-trend and 0.851 pullback ranks.",
"The Bank of Japan statement and outlook report are scheduled for July 31."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Japan equities fall after the BOJ decision and their 21-session active return versus SPY deteriorates below -8%.",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "A hawkish BOJ surprise, abrupt yen move, or global technology weakness could extend the pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan statement and outlook report on July 31."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated crude prices and geopolitical supply risk can sustain energy-sector earnings expectations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY outperformed SPY by 9.10% over 21 sessions, and Brent closed at $94.07 after rising 3.4%.",
"The Fed cited Middle East conflict as a source of supply-shock uncertainty.",
"U.S. commercial petroleum inventories rose 11.6 million barrels and four-week product supplied was down 1% year over year."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -10,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $85 or weekly U.S. petroleum inventories continue rising while product supplied remains below year-earlier levels.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Large inventory builds, softer demand, and the recent price surge create substantial mean-reversion risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly petroleum reports and Middle East supply developments before August 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation and shallow drawdown could sustain near-term relative strength.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE outperformed SPY by 5.84% over 21 sessions and gained 0.72% over five sessions.",
"Its 63-session drawdown was limited to 3.74%.",
"The quality evidence score was only 0.254 and prior active return was -13.06%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare's 21-session active return falls below zero or its drawdown exceeds 6%.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "The weak prior trend and low quality score suggest the recent outperformance may be a temporary rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC decision and July employment and inflation releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cooling inflation and employment could pull yields lower and produce a duration rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"LONG_TREASURY returned -2.72% over 21 sessions and was 6.40% below its 52-week high.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.65%.",
"Core CPI was unchanged in June, while payroll growth slowed to 57,000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield closes above 4.80% or July core inflation materially reaccelerates.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Final-demand PPI remained 5.5% above a year earlier, leaving long yields vulnerable to renewed inflation pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC decision and July employment, CPI, and PPI releases through August 13."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.08,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Semiconductor and growth-stock pullbacks deepen as elevated yields compress valuations.",
"Alphabet, Microsoft, or Qualcomm results fail to meet embedded market expectations despite strong reported growth.",
"The Bank of Japan delivers a policy surprise that pressures Japanese equities.",
"Oil reverses sharply as rising inventories and weak product demand outweigh geopolitical supply concerns."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Semiconductors remain below their July 22 level after Microsoft and Qualcomm results or their 21-session active return falls below -15%.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "The strongest prior relative trend is paired with a deep recent pullback, while rapid cloud growth and upcoming technology earnings provide fundamental and event support for a rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Qualcomm results on July 29, followed by July macro releases through August 13."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "NASDAQ100 fails to outperform SPY after Alphabet and Microsoft results or the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.80%.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"rationale": "High-quality pullback evidence and strong Alphabet operating results support recovery potential without using the full technology-cluster allowance in the higher-volatility semiconductor sleeve.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market reaction to Alphabet results, Microsoft results on July 29, and the July 29 FOMC decision."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "DIVIDEND loses its 21-session relative lead over SPY while the 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.80%.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Positive short- and medium-term relative performance, low beta, and cooling labor and core-inflation data favor profitable defensive equities during a macro-heavy month.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC decision and the July employment, CPI, and PPI releases through August 13."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Japan equities fall after the BOJ decision and their 21-session active return versus SPY deteriorates below -8%.",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "A strong prior relative trend and deep pullback create rebound potential around the scheduled Bank of Japan decision.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of Japan statement and outlook report on July 31."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $85 or weekly U.S. petroleum inventories continue rising while product supplied remains below year-earlier levels.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Higher crude prices and Middle East supply uncertainty support sector earnings, while the modest weight limits exposure to an overextended and inventory-sensitive trade.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly petroleum reports and Middle East supply developments before August 21."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.08,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines a catalyst-backed technology rebound with defensive dividend exposure, a BOJ-driven Japan opportunity, and limited energy exposure. Technology is capped at 50%, and the remaining holdings span distinct economic clusters.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings all exceed SPY's 1.0% base forecast. The weighted base return is 2.08%, implying 1.08 percentage points of expected alpha.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15446,
"latency_seconds": 62.720601784065366,
"output_tokens": 3984,
"reasoning_tokens": 1552,
"total_tokens": 19430
}
}xai-grok-4-3
60% SP500 plus three holdings with base forecasts exceeding SPY to capture modest alpha from energy and defensive sectors.
Energy and select defensive sectors show stronger base-case returns than SPY over the one-month horizon based on recent price action and macro data.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Stable growth and contained inflation support equity prices through August.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7498.96 on July 22",
"June nonfarm payrolls +57k with downward revisions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Higher than expected CPI or weak GDP triggers risk-off move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and GDP release July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated oil inventories and Middle East uncertainty keep prices supported.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07",
"XLE active return +9.10% over 21 days"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $90",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand weakness shown in product supplied data accelerates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA inventory reports and Brent crude levels"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive sector benefits from rate stability and earnings resilience.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active return +5.84% over 21 days",
"CPI ex-food-energy up 2.6% year-over-year"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rate rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Healthcare policy or regulatory headlines weigh on valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Higher yields support net interest margins for banks.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF active return +3.97% over 21 days",
"10-year Treasury yield at 4.65%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield drops below 4.4%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Yield curve flattens sharply on growth concerns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of England and FOMC decisions"
},
{
"continuation_case": "European growth stabilizes ahead of ECB decision.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"VEA 21-day return -3.03%",
"ECB policy decision scheduled July 23"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Euro weakens below 1.05 versus USD",
"option_id": "DEVELOPED_EX_US",
"reversal_case": "ECB signals tighter policy than expected.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECB policy decision July 23"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand persists amid geopolitical uncertainty.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 5-day return +1.85%",
"US dollar index up 0.71% over 5 days"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "US dollar index rises above 105",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Stronger USD and higher real yields pressure gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Short-term rates remain anchored near current levels.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"BIL low volatility rank 1.000",
"Federal funds target range held at 3.50%-3.75%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Fed signals cut at July meeting",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Unexpected rate cut shifts yield curve.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market participation improves with small-cap relative strength.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"VTI 5-day return -0.95%",
"Equal-weight RSP active return +1.07% over 21 days"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Nasdaq Composite falls below 25,000",
"option_id": "TOTAL_US_MARKET",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings disappointment spills over to broader indices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet and Tesla earnings follow-through"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.35,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC policy surprise on July 29",
"Oil price reversal below $90",
"Weaker than expected Q2 GDP print"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 60,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10-year yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad diversified US equity exposure with neutral base case for the one-month window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and GDP release July 30"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $90",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Recent oil price strength and inventory data support relative outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA inventory reports and Brent crude levels"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rate rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive characteristics and recent relative performance versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and CPI releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield drops below 4.4%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Yield curve and rate environment supportive for sector.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank of England and FOMC decisions"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.15,
"portfolio_rationale": "60% SP500 plus three holdings with base forecasts exceeding SPY to capture modest alpha from energy and defensive sectors.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy and select defensive sectors show stronger base-case returns than SPY over the one-month horizon based on recent price action and macro data.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15666,
"latency_seconds": 28.44077837606892,
"output_tokens": 1795,
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}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in energy cluster at the 50% cap on continued oil strength while balancing with healthcare and dividend defensives that have shown superior recent active returns and lower drawdowns versus SPY. All selected bases exceed SPY base on supplied momentum, macro softness, and commodity facts.
SPY base is modest given mixed payrolls, cooling CPI, and recent 5-session weakness. Energy/OIL clear the hurdle on price and inventory evidence; healthcare and dividend clear on relative performance and defensive characteristics into the FOMC and data window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Soft landing data and stable policy keep broad equities grinding higher from -1.35% off highs.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return -0.98% and 21-session +0.41%",
"June payrolls +57k with downward revisions; CPI -0.4% m/m",
"FOMC meeting concludes July 29"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Close below recent 63-session drawdown lows on rising yields",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish FOMC or weaker GDP/PCE triggers multiple compression.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC statement and July 30 GDP/PCE"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium and high utilization sustain elevated oil prices supporting energy equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE 21-session active return +9.10%; Brent +3.4% to $94.07",
"EIA commercial crude +2.0 mbbl but total petroleum +11.6 mbbl; refinery util 96.1%",
"Quality evidence prior active rank 0.806"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent close below $85 with XLE underperforming SPY by >5% active",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand proxy weakness (product supplied -1% y/y) plus inventory builds reverse the move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA reports and any Middle East headlines before Aug 21"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply concerns and summer demand keep the futures-driven ETF elevated.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"USO 5-session +8.49%, 21-session +16.45%, prior 105s active +46.37%",
"Brent above $94 after trading $95; four-week product supplied 20.4 mb/d",
"High volatility 50.34% and max drawdown -32.49%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 12,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "USO 10% drawdown from entry on consecutive crude builds",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Large inventory builds or OPEC+ surprise increase collapses the curve.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly data and geopolitical developments through mid-August"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive characteristics and recent relative strength persist amid macro uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV 21-session active return +5.84%; distance to 52w high -3.05%",
"Low corr/beta to SPY (0.268/0.336); shallow recent drawdown",
"Soft labor and cooling core CPI favor defensives"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV active return turns negative >3% versus SPY on growth rebound",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation post-strong GDP or dovish pivot leaves healthcare lagging.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 employment and August 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated yields and quality dividend tilt attract flows if growth remains moderate.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD 5-session +1.73%, 21-session active +3.58%; near 52w high (-0.42%)",
"Low beta 0.274 and quality pullback rank low but prior active solid",
"10y yield at 4.65% supports income appeal"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield drops below 4.2% with growth stocks outperforming >4% active",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Sharp rate cut expectations or tech leadership resumption hurts relative performance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and income-focused flows around month-end/August data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI capex and strong cloud results restart the prior uptrend after pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH 21-session active -12.66% after prior 105s active +60.90%",
"Highest quality evidence score 0.758 but vol 52.86% and -12.26% from high",
"Alphabet Cloud +82% but broader tech Nasdaq -0.6% on day"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Break of recent lows with active underperformance extending past -15%",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Further mean-reversion from extreme prior gains and high vol into earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft/Qualcomm results and any AI commentary post July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued preference for value over growth on rate and macro softness.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IWD 21-session active +1.23%; low vol rank strong; -0.78% from high",
"Quality evidence score 0.641 with solid prior active",
"Value tilt overlaps energy/financials that have mixed recent prints"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD underperforms SPY by >2% active on Nasdaq rebound",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth re-rating on strong mega-cap earnings reverses the relative bid.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and sector rotation around August macro data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity complex follows energy higher on inflation residual and supply.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"PDBC 21-session active +8.46%; prior active +7.00%",
"Oil strength dominant but broad basket includes weaker metals/ag",
"Quality prior rank 0.851 but recent pullback rank very low 0.045"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "PDBC gives back >5% as oil corrects and industrial metals lag",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength or demand slowdown hits non-energy components harder.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil inventory data and ISM/PMI prints in early August"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.65,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sudden oil price reversal on inventory builds or de-escalation",
"FOMC hawkish surprise lifting real yields and pressuring all risk assets",
"Growth re-acceleration favoring mega-cap tech over value/energy/defensives",
"Cluster concentration risk if energy mean-reverts hard"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent sustained drop below $85 or sharp risk-off equity selloff",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Oil price strength and inventory/build data support near-term energy equity continuation into FOMC and summer demand window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Elevated Brent near $94 and weekly EIA inventory prints before August 21"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Commercial crude builds exceeding 5 mbbl for two consecutive weeks with price collapse",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct crude exposure captures the recent supply-shock premium and product-supplied trends better than equities alone.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued geopolitical premium and refinery utilization at 96.1% through mid-August"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on surge that leaves defensives lagging by >3% active",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive relative strength and lower beta provide ballast while recent active outperformance can persist on soft macro data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and CPI prints plus any defensive rotation post-FOMC"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp 10y yield spike above 5% or growth re-acceleration crushing value/dividend",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Quality dividend tilt benefits from elevated yields environment and recent relative resilience versus growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement and soft payroll/retail data supporting income equities"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.25,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in energy cluster at the 50% cap on continued oil strength while balancing with healthcare and dividend defensives that have shown superior recent active returns and lower drawdowns versus SPY. All selected bases exceed SPY base on supplied momentum, macro softness, and commodity facts.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base is modest given mixed payrolls, cooling CPI, and recent 5-session weakness. Energy/OIL clear the hurdle on price and inventory evidence; healthcare and dividend clear on relative performance and defensive characteristics into the FOMC and data window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16518,
"latency_seconds": 27.30661854497157,
"output_tokens": 2649,
"reasoning_tokens": 631,
"total_tokens": 19798
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)30%Taiwan Equities (EWT)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%S&P 500 (SPY)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Energy Sector (XLE)50%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)50% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Crude Oil (USO)40%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%United Kingdom Equities (EWU)15% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)30%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%Japan Equities (EWJ)15%Energy Sector (XLE)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)60%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)10%Financials Sector (XLF)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Crude Oil (USO)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-22 | 231.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-22 | 93.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-22 | 28.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-22 | 28.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-22 | 119.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-22 | 152.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-22 | 37.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-22 | 36.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-22 | 60.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-22 | 17.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-22 | 59.28 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-22 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-22 | 53.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-22 | 109.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-22 | 114.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-22 | 84.38 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-22 | 39.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-22 | 131.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-22 | 89.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-22 | 70.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-22 | 95.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-22 | 58.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-22 | 59.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-22 | 212.70 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-22 | 14.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-22 | 105.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-22 | 89.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-22 | 56.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-22 | 77.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-22 | 159.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-22 | 79.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-22 | 48.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-22 | 178.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-22 | 93.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-22 | 47.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-22 | 106.67 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-22 | 92.19 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-22 | 56.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-22 | 83.44 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-22 | 50.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-22 | 103.50 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-22 | 76.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-22 | 105.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-22 | 705.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-22 | 45.01 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-22 | 75.60 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-22 | 747.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-22 | 586.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-22 | 91.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-22 | 53.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-22 | 89.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-22 | 53.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-22 | 62.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-22 | 170.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-22 | 101.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-22 | 180.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-22 | 368.87 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-22 | 107.77 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-22 | 47.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-22 | 97.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-22 | 32.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-22 | 28.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-22 | 120.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-22 | 247.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-22 | 76.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-22 | 75.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-22 | 314.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-22 | 293.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-22 | 222.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-22 | 45.93 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | cb55d4f2bd27...de1709dc |
| manifest.yaml | 2d5e658cbebf...b6731665 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | d8899b0772c1...71b49cac |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | ad896ddffbd0...5a769c8d |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | a879f382f943...b7b93da2 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 4f92d022627c...8e9a5a0a |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 78be4e540a94...9f7040d5 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 75cd3c01e164...d3a3e4f4 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |