Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 72.0 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +68.75% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +58.75%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Financials Sector (XLF) is the largest aggregate allocation at +15.00%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
9 public audit hashes are available.
4 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-07-23 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
9 artifacts published.
official-v2-20260716
31,058 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
US Small-Cap Value (IWN)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-16-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-16
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-17T10:15:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-17T13:20:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-16
- Exit date: 2026-07-23
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 16, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 23, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Weekly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 17, 2026 at 10:15 UTC. Scoring window: July 16 through July 23, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% in June. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% for the month and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% decrease in energy, while services increased 0.2%. PPI data are subject to revision.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 0.4% for the month and 4.1% over 12 months, while PCE prices excluding food and energy increased 3.4% over 12 months.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan.
- On July 16, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.84% at three months, 4.16% at two years, 4.57% at ten years, and 5.09% at 30 years. Real constant-maturity yields were 2.04% at five years, 2.35% at ten years, and 2.91% at 30 years.
## International And Energy Data
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year. Second-quarter GDP increased 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year. The official June manufacturing PMI was 50.3.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June and was below $70 on July 1. Its July forecast, completed July 1, projected a $70 fourth-quarter 2026 average. The latest weekly petroleum report covered the week ending July 10 and used preliminary weekly estimates.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve June industrial production and capacity utilization; not released by the research cutoff.
- July 22 at 10:30 a.m. ET: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-16-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-16'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-17T13:20:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 16, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 23, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-16'
exit_date: '2026-07-23'
created_at: '2026-07-17T10:14:03.897456+00:00'
notes: First official Portfolio V2.0 weekly production round. Research assembled after the July 16 close through direct public-source browsing; participant model tools and search are disabled.# CapitalBench Weekly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 17, 2026 at 10:15 UTC. Scoring window: July 16 through July 23, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% in June. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% for the month and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% decrease in energy, while services increased 0.2%. PPI data are subject to revision.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 0.4% for the month and 4.1% over 12 months, while PCE prices excluding food and energy increased 3.4% over 12 months.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan.
- On July 16, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.84% at three months, 4.16% at two years, 4.57% at ten years, and 5.09% at 30 years. Real constant-maturity yields were 2.04% at five years, 2.35% at ten years, and 2.91% at 30 years.
## International And Energy Data
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year. Second-quarter GDP increased 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year. The official June manufacturing PMI was 50.3.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June and was below $70 on July 1. Its July forecast, completed July 1, projected a $70 fourth-quarter 2026 average. The latest weekly petroleum report covered the week ending July 10 and used preliminary weekly estimates.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve June industrial production and capacity utilization; not released by the research cutoff.
- July 22 at 10:30 a.m. ET: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts away from mega-cap growth toward recent breadth, value, financials, rate-sensitive real estate, energy, and China rebound exposures. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no non-SPY cluster exceeds 50%.
SPY has been slightly negative over 5 and 21 sessions while equal-weight and several value/defensive/cyclical areas have shown positive active returns. Softer inflation and payroll data create a plausible one-week backdrop for broader participation, but forecasts remain modest because the horizon is short.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad US large-cap equities could stabilize if softer CPI, PPI, and payroll data support rate-cut expectations and risk appetite.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY return was -0.13% over 5 sessions and -0.29% over 21 sessions.",
"SPY 21-session volatility was 12.42% with a -3.17% max drawdown.",
"SPY was 0.91% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.35,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks materially lower versus equal-weight and value exposures after the industrial production release.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Recent underperformance versus equal weight and value factors could continue if mega-cap growth remains weak.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 industrial production and capacity utilization may affect broad equity risk sentiment."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent breadth and value leadership can persist if softer labor and inflation data ease financing concerns without triggering recession fears.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Small value returned 2.00% over 3 sessions and had 2.26% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 1.17%.",
"Distance to 52-week high was 0.00%, with 21-session volatility of 11.05%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Small-cap value loses recent leadership with negative active return versus SPY over the first part of the window.",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Small-cap value could reverse if weak payroll data are interpreted as growth deterioration or risk appetite fades.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of breadth improvement into the July 23 close; no specific scheduled sector catalyst identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive active trend and value leadership can continue if credit conditions remain calm and yields do not move adversely.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Financials had 2.31% 5-session active return and 4.22% prior 16-session active return.",
"The sector was at a 52-week high with a -2.08% 21-session max drawdown.",
"Volume z-score was slightly positive at 0.022."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials reverse below SPY on widening credit concerns or an adverse yield-curve move.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Financials could reverse if weak payroll data increase credit-quality concerns or if the yield curve moves against bank profitability.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of value/cyclical leadership and stable yield-curve or credit sentiment before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate-sensitive equities could extend gains if softer inflation and payroll data keep downward pressure on rate expectations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Real estate had 1.70% 3-session return and 2.91% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"Real estate was at a 52-week high, with -2.75% 21-session max drawdown.",
"June CPI decreased 0.4% month over month and core CPI was unchanged."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Treasury yields rise materially or real estate posts negative active return versus SPY early in the scoring window.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "A back-up in yields or growth scare could quickly pressure real estate because its 21-session volatility was 18.80%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rate-sensitive equity bid following softer inflation and employment data before the July 23 close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent energy strength could persist if oil stabilizes and the upcoming inventory report supports tighter supply-demand expectations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy had 4.14% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"Energy remained 8.20% below its 52-week high and had 21.23% 21-session volatility.",
"The EIA reported Brent averaged $85 in June and was below $70 on July 1, with a July forecast for a $70 fourth-quarter average."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil prices or energy equities fail to hold recent gains after the petroleum inventory update.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Energy could reverse if the recent oil rebound fades or the EIA report shows bearish inventory or demand signals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A short-term rebound can continue if investors respond favorably to positive China activity data and PMI above 50.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"China equities had 3.06% 3-session return and 1.92% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"China reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year and June industrial value added up 5.3% year over year.",
"The official June manufacturing PMI was 50.3."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "China equities give back the recent rebound and underperform SPY during the first half of the window.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "The rebound could fail because prior 16-session active return was -3.01% and the fund remained 17.65% below its 52-week high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of reaction to China first-half GDP, June industrial value added, and PMI data; no additional scheduled China catalyst identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cash-like yield and low volatility can outperform if equities decline during the week.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasury returned 0.03% over 3 sessions and had 0.21% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"21-session volatility was 0.25% and max drawdown was -0.01%.",
"Three-month Treasury nominal yield was 3.84% on July 16."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.04,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.08,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY rallies enough that cash-like carry cannot keep pace.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "It is unlikely to beat SPY in an equity rebound because its expected one-week return is mechanically small.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No specific catalyst identified beyond carry and any risk-off move before July 23."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The sharp recent rebound could extend if the EIA report indicates tighter inventories or firmer demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Oil had 9.57% 5-session active return versus SPY but -9.91% prior 16-session active return.",
"Oil 21-session volatility was 49.69% and max drawdown was -14.80%.",
"The July 22 EIA petroleum status report is scheduled before the exit close."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.05,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil fails to sustain the recent rebound or sells off after the inventory data.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "High volatility, large prior underperformance, and a 22.01% distance below the 52-week high increase whipsaw risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.265,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Recent factor leadership reverses and mega-cap growth resumes outperforming, causing SPY to beat the active basket.",
"Treasury yields rise despite softer inflation and labor data, pressuring real estate and broader value exposures.",
"The July 22 EIA petroleum report disappoints energy markets and reverses the recent energy rally.",
"China rebound fades because recent economic data are insufficient to offset prior underperformance and high country-specific risk."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Small-cap value loses recent leadership with negative active return versus SPY over the first part of the window.",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Small-cap value has recent absolute and benchmark-relative strength, is at a 52-week high, and may benefit if softer inflation and payroll data support broader market participation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of breadth improvement into the July 23 close; no specific scheduled sector catalyst identified."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials reverse below SPY on widening credit concerns or an adverse yield-curve move.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials show positive 5-day and prior-window active returns, low drawdown, and a 52-week-high position, with less mega-cap growth dependence than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of value/cyclical leadership and stable yield-curve or credit sentiment before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "Treasury yields rise materially or real estate posts negative active return versus SPY early in the scoring window.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Real estate has recent active strength and sits at a 52-week high, while softer CPI, PPI, and payroll data provide a plausible near-term rate-sensitive support case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rate-sensitive equity bid following softer inflation and employment data before the July 23 close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil prices or energy equities fail to hold recent gains after the petroleum inventory update.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy has strong 5-day active return and a direct near-term catalyst from the scheduled EIA petroleum status report, though oil-related volatility keeps the allocation moderate.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"invalidation_condition": "China equities give back the recent rebound and underperform SPY during the first half of the window.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "China equities have a positive 3-day and 5-day active rebound supported by supplied China GDP, industrial production, and PMI data, but remain high risk and far below highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of reaction to China first-half GDP, June industrial value added, and PMI data; no additional scheduled China catalyst identified."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.365,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts away from mega-cap growth toward recent breadth, value, financials, rate-sensitive real estate, energy, and China rebound exposures. Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY, and no non-SPY cluster exceeds 50%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY has been slightly negative over 5 and 21 sessions while equal-weight and several value/defensive/cyclical areas have shown positive active returns. Softer inflation and payroll data create a plausible one-week backdrop for broader participation, but forecasts remain modest because the horizon is short.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-16-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12317,
"latency_seconds": 41.60900000017136,
"output_tokens": 2762,
"reasoning_tokens": 296,
"total_tokens": 15079
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio favors broadening, regional-bank momentum, rate-sensitive real estate, and Chinese equities with supportive activity data. It diversifies across four capped exposure clusters while every holding has a higher base forecast than SPY.
Persistent broadening and regional-bank leadership receive the largest weights, while China and real estate add distinct macro exposures. The weighted base forecast is 0.5675%, implying 0.4175 percentage points of expected alpha.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Proximity to the 52-week high and softer monthly inflation could sustain the broad market.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned -0.13% over five sessions and -0.29% over 21 sessions.",
"SPY was 0.91% below its 52-week high with 12.42% 21-session volatility.",
"June core CPI was unchanged month over month, but payroll growth slowed to 57,000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks materially below its recent range or Treasury yields rise sharply after the scheduled release.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak employment, elevated PCE inflation, and high long-term yields could pressure earnings expectations and valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 US industrial-production and capacity-utilization release."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broadening has persisted across both recent and prior windows and is supported by lower volatility than SPY.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP outperformed SPY by 0.86% over five sessions and 1.70% over 21 sessions.",
"RSP had positive 0.84% prior-window active return.",
"Its 10.88% volatility and 1.83% drawdown were below SPY's corresponding figures."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.6,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point after entry or broadening reverses sharply.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "A rapid return to mega-cap leadership would favor capitalization-weighted SPY over equal weight.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 US industrial-production and capacity-utilization release."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strength across both recent and prior windows indicates persistent leadership rather than an isolated one-day move.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"KRE gained 3.73% over three sessions and outperformed SPY by 4.51% over five sessions.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was also positive at 4.11%.",
"KRE finished at its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "KRE falls below its recent range and underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points after entry.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "The move is extended at a 52-week high, while weak growth or renewed credit concerns could trigger profit-taking.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 US industrial-production release and continued market reaction to weak payroll and soft core-CPI data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Expansionary manufacturing and industrial data provide fundamental support for the recent rebound.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"China's second-quarter GDP increased 4.3% year over year and June industrial value added increased 5.3%.",
"The official June manufacturing PMI was expansionary at 50.3.",
"MCHI gained 3.06% over three sessions and had 1.92% five-session active return, though prior active return was -3.01%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI loses more than 3% from entry or its recent positive active return fully reverses.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "The negative prior-window trend and 17.65% distance from the 52-week high indicate that the rebound remains fragile.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified before the exit close; continuation depends on digestion of the supplied Chinese activity data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Soft monthly core inflation and weak employment can restrain yields, while recent relative strength shows improving demand.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLRE gained 1.70% over three sessions and outperformed SPY by 2.91% over five sessions.",
"June core CPI was unchanged month over month and payroll growth slowed to 57,000.",
"XLRE ended at its 52-week high, although its prior active return was -0.67%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above 4.57% while XLRE underperforms SPY by more than 1.5 percentage points.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "The 10-year yield was still 4.57%, and a yield increase could quickly reverse rate-sensitive equity gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 US industrial-production release and any resulting Treasury-yield move."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payroll growth and flat monthly core CPI could reduce yields and support intermediate-duration bonds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IEF gained 0.46% over three sessions but had only 0.14% five-session active return.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was -0.12%.",
"The 10-year nominal Treasury yield was 4.57%, while monthly core CPI was unchanged."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises above 4.70% or IEF loses more than 0.8% from entry.",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated PCE inflation and a 5.5% annual PPI reading could keep yields high or push them higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 US industrial-production and capacity-utilization release."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent strength could persist if the July 22 inventory report signals tighter petroleum balances.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO outperformed SPY by 9.57% over five sessions but had -9.91% prior-window active return.",
"USO volatility was 49.69% and its 21-session drawdown was 14.80%.",
"EIA projected a $70 fourth-quarter Brent average after Brent fell from an $85 June average to below $70 on July 1."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "USO gives back more than half of its latest five-session gain or the EIA report indicates materially looser balances.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "The surge lacks trend confirmation, volatility is extreme, and the supplied EIA forecast does not support sustained high prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.4175,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hotter or stronger-than-expected US industrial-production release could lift Treasury yields and hurt real estate and smaller financial stocks.",
"Regional-bank momentum could reverse because of credit-quality, deposit, regulation, or commercial-real-estate concerns.",
"China's recent rebound could fail because its prior 16-session active return remained negative.",
"A renewed mega-cap growth rally could cause equal-weight equities to lag SPY."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point after entry or broadening reverses sharply.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Persistent market broadening and lower volatility than SPY support modest one-week outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 US industrial-production and capacity-utilization release."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "KRE falls below its recent range and underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points after entry.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Regional banks have the strongest confirmed continuation profile among finalists, with positive recent and prior-window active returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 US industrial-production release and continued market reaction to weak payroll and soft core-CPI data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI loses more than 3% from entry or its recent positive active return fully reverses.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "Positive Chinese growth and manufacturing data provide independent support for recent price strength, though no specific weekly catalyst is identified.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified before the exit close; continuation depends on digestion of the supplied Chinese activity data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above 4.57% while XLRE underperforms SPY by more than 1.5 percentage points.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Flat monthly core CPI and weak payroll growth support rate-sensitive equities, complementing XLRE's recent relative strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 US industrial-production release and any resulting Treasury-yield move."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.5675,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors broadening, regional-bank momentum, rate-sensitive real estate, and Chinese equities with supportive activity data. It diversifies across four capped exposure clusters while every holding has a higher base forecast than SPY.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Persistent broadening and regional-bank leadership receive the largest weights, while China and real estate add distinct macro exposures. The weighted base forecast is 0.5675%, implying 0.4175 percentage points of expected alpha.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-16-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12319,
"latency_seconds": 38.109999999869615,
"output_tokens": 2946,
"reasoning_tokens": 866,
"total_tokens": 15265
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Selected holdings show base forecasts exceeding SPY with exposure across value, defensive, financials and energy clusters.
Weak payrolls and cooling CPI favor value and defensive tilts over broad growth exposure for the one-week window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Soft data persists into exit",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"June nonfarm payrolls +57k with downward revisions",
"CPI decreased 0.4% MoM"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Strong industrial production print",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value outperformance continues on soft growth data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"return_3s 2.00%",
"active_return_5s 2.26%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Broad risk-on rotation into growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s 3.27%",
"CPI energy component down sharply"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Stronger than expected retail sales follow-through",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Financials benefit from stable rates",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s 2.31%",
"Fed held rates with lower 2026 median path"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.85,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Yield curve steepening accelerates",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil stabilizes near current levels",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s 4.14%",
"Brent below $70 on July 1"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "July 22 inventory build surprises higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth underperformance persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_3s -0.81%",
"active_return_5s -2.27%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Tech earnings sentiment rebounds",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rates remain range-bound",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s 2.91%",
"10y yield 4.57%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Yield spike on stronger data",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 17 industrial production"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.69,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Unexpected positive surprise in July 17 industrial production data",
"Reversal in recent commodity and value momentum",
"Higher than expected volatility around July 22 EIA release"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Strong recent active return and value tilt supported by weak growth data favoring cyclicals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with positive recent performance amid cooling inflation and soft payrolls.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.85,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive recent active return and sensitivity to potential policy easing signals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above entry by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Recent outperformance amid oil price stabilization below $70.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.94,
"portfolio_rationale": "Selected holdings show base forecasts exceeding SPY with exposure across value, defensive, financials and energy clusters.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Weak payrolls and cooling CPI favor value and defensive tilts over broad growth exposure for the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-16-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12563,
"latency_seconds": 14.233999999938533,
"output_tokens": 1569,
"reasoning_tokens": 591,
"total_tokens": 14723
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio tilts to recent relative strength in regional banks, small value, energy, China, and equal-weight equities, all with base forecasts exceeding SPY, capitalizing on value/breadth rotation and commodity bounce while spanning clusters under the 50% cap.
Soft US inflation and labor data favor a soft-landing rotation into value, financials, and select cyclicals/international over mega-cap growth; selected holdings show stronger recent active returns and higher base expected returns than SPY for the one-week window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Soft inflation data and stable policy rates support modest equity gains in a soft-landing scenario.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"spy_return_5s of -0.13%",
"June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis",
"June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below its 21-session low or volatility spikes significantly",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further deterioration in growth indicators or unexpected hawkish policy signals could pressure equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Federal Reserve June industrial production and capacity utilization on July 17; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued market breadth improvement and equal-weight outperformance as rotation away from concentrated growth persists.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy_5s of 0.86%",
"rsp_return_21s of 1.42%",
"distance_52w_high of 0.00%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY significantly or breaks recent support",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Reassertion of mega-cap leadership if technology rebounds strongly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified beyond general market data releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Small-value strength continues amid domestic economic resilience and value rotation; limited independent non-price support in briefing.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"return_3s of 2.00%",
"active_return_5s of 2.26%",
"distance_52w_high of 0.00%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "IWN falls more than 2% or relative strength vs SPY reverses",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Risk aversion rises or large-growth recovers, reversing the factor move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Industrial production data on July 17"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Momentum in regional banks persists with stable yield curve and soft data reducing hard-landing fears; primarily price-based with weak additional briefing support.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"return_3s of 3.73%",
"active_return_5s of 4.51%",
"distance_52w_high of 0.00%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "KRE reverses more than half of recent gains or underperforms financials broadly",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Renewed deposit or credit quality concerns emerge, or rates move adversely.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent energy rebound continues if oil prices stabilize above recent lows despite longer-term EIA forecast.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s of 4.14%",
"uso_return_5s of 9.44%",
"Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June and was below $70 on July 1"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLE or oil prices drop sharply on inventory data",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA report or further price declines toward $70 forecast reverse the bounce.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17 on July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "China equity rebound continues supported by expanding PMI and policy expectations after soft GDP.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"return_3s of 3.06%",
"China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year",
"The official June manufacturing PMI was 50.3"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI loses recent gains or falls on negative China news",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Disappointing follow-through data or external pressures reverse gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate-sensitive real estate continues to benefit from soft inflation and potential rate path.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_3s of 1.70%",
"active_return_5s of 2.91%",
"distance_52w_high of 0.00%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLRE underperforms or yields spike",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Yields rise or property concerns resurface.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.015,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Momentum reversal in regional banks and small value after strong recent runs",
"Oil/energy pullback if EIA data confirms surplus or prices fall toward forecast",
"Broad equity decline if industrial production disappoints",
"China-specific negative catalyst reversing the bounce",
"Higher correlation in risk-off scenario reducing diversification"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY significantly or breaks recent support",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Equal-weight continues to outperform on improving breadth; base forecast exceeds SPY with support from recent active returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified beyond general market data releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.25,
"invalidation_condition": "IWN falls more than 2% or relative strength vs SPY reverses",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Small-value at 52w high with strong active returns; expected to extend value rotation under soft-landing macro.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Industrial production data on July 17"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.75,
"invalidation_condition": "KRE reverses more than half of recent gains or underperforms financials broadly",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Strongest recent momentum and active return among candidates; soft data reduces recession risk for banks despite limited non-price evidence.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLE or oil prices drop sharply on inventory data",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy sector active outperformance and oil rebound provide higher base return; monitored against EIA catalyst.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17 on July 22"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI loses recent gains or falls on negative China news",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "Recent rebound with PMI expansion offers alpha potential over SPY despite soft GDP print.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.265,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio tilts to recent relative strength in regional banks, small value, energy, China, and equal-weight equities, all with base forecasts exceeding SPY, capitalizing on value/breadth rotation and commodity bounce while spanning clusters under the 50% cap.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Soft US inflation and labor data favor a soft-landing rotation into value, financials, and select cyclicals/international over mega-cap growth; selected holdings show stronger recent active returns and higher base expected returns than SPY for the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-16-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 13322,
"latency_seconds": 131.65600000019185,
"output_tokens": 2335,
"reasoning_tokens": 9150,
"total_tokens": 24807
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15%China Equities (MCHI)15% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)35%Regional Banks (KRE)30%China Equities (MCHI)20%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Energy Sector (XLE)20% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)15%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)25%Regional Banks (KRE)30%Energy Sector (XLE)15%China Equities (MCHI)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-16 | 230.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-16 | 93.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-16 | 27.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-16 | 28.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-16 | 118.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-16 | 152.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-16 | 36.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-16 | 35.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-16 | 59.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-16 | 16.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-16 | 59.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-16 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-16 | 54.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-16 | 112.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-16 | 117.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-16 | 85.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-16 | 38.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-16 | 119.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-16 | 91.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-16 | 70.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-16 | 95.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-16 | 58.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-16 | 57.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-16 | 215.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-16 | 14.13 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-16 | 105.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-16 | 88.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-16 | 56.75 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-16 | 74.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-16 | 161.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-16 | 79.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-16 | 48.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-16 | 180.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-16 | 93.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-16 | 47.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-16 | 107.50 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-16 | 91.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-16 | 56.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-16 | 84.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-16 | 50.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-16 | 98.99 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-16 | 75.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-16 | 106.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-16 | 705.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-16 | 45.46 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-16 | 77.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-16 | 750.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-16 | 568.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-16 | 91.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-16 | 50.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-16 | 93.70 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-16 | 54.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-16 | 62.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-16 | 163.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-16 | 100.16 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-16 | 177.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-16 | 370.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-16 | 107.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-16 | 46.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-16 | 98.13 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-16 | 33.04 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-16 | 28.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-16 | 121.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-16 | 249.46 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-16 | 76.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-16 | 75.99 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-16 | 303.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-16 | 295.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-16 | 224.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-16 | 45.47 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | ee099d7633c2...5d492ddb |
| manifest.yaml | cb51373841d2...32d09791 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 07631774c7cf...6f80b799 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | f51b7c357fd9...917d3934 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 3ba3fd299db7...0ad15f0f |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 9037e7d6c7a6...2c8bcc5e |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 56aa11e0208b...e5215ccd |
| submission_schema.json | f74e11a346ed...4031ce88 |