Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 72.0 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +68.75% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +58.75%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Financials Sector (XLF) is the largest aggregate allocation at +15.00%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
9 public audit hashes are available.
4 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-14 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
9 artifacts published.
official-v2-20260716
31,614 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Financials Sector (XLF)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-16-1M
- Decision date: 2026-07-16
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-17T10:15:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-17T13:20:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-07-16
- Exit date: 2026-08-14
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 16, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, August 14, 2026 as the final trading-day close before the one-month calendar date, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Monthly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 17, 2026 at 10:15 UTC. Scoring window: July 16 through August 14, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% in June. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% for the month and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% decrease in energy, while services increased 0.2%. PPI data are subject to revision.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 0.4% for the month and 4.1% over 12 months, while PCE prices excluding food and energy increased 3.4% over 12 months.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan.
- On July 16, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.84% at three months, 4.16% at two years, 4.57% at ten years, and 5.09% at 30 years. Real constant-maturity yields were 2.04% at five years, 2.35% at ten years, and 2.91% at 30 years.
## International And Energy Data
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year. Second-quarter GDP increased 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year. The official June manufacturing PMI was 50.3.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June and was below $70 on July 1. Its July forecast, completed July 1, projected a $70 fourth-quarter 2026 average. The latest weekly petroleum report covered the week ending July 10 and used preliminary weekly estimates.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve June industrial production and capacity utilization; not released by the research cutoff.
- July 22 and subsequent Wednesdays: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports.
- July 28-29: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, with a statement scheduled July 29.
- July 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA advance second-quarter GDP and June personal income and outlays.
- July 30-31: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, with a statement and July outlook scheduled July 31; the BOJ calendar listed the release time as undecided.
- August 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July Employment Situation.
- August 11: EIA August Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July CPI.
- August 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July PPI.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-16-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-16'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-17T13:20:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 16, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, August 14, 2026 as the final trading-day close before the one-month calendar date, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-16'
exit_date: '2026-08-14'
created_at: '2026-07-17T10:14:04.608581+00:00'
notes: First official Portfolio V2.0 monthly production round. Research assembled after the July 16 close through direct public-source browsing; participant model tools and search are disabled.# CapitalBench Monthly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 17, 2026 at 10:15 UTC. Scoring window: July 16 through August 14, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% in June. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% for the month and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% decrease in energy, while services increased 0.2%. PPI data are subject to revision.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 0.4% for the month and 4.1% over 12 months, while PCE prices excluding food and energy increased 3.4% over 12 months.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan.
- On July 16, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.84% at three months, 4.16% at two years, 4.57% at ten years, and 5.09% at 30 years. Real constant-maturity yields were 2.04% at five years, 2.35% at ten years, and 2.91% at 30 years.
## International And Energy Data
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year. Second-quarter GDP increased 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year. The official June manufacturing PMI was 50.3.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June and was below $70 on July 1. Its July forecast, completed July 1, projected a $70 fourth-quarter 2026 average. The latest weekly petroleum report covered the week ending July 10 and used preliminary weekly estimates.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 17 at 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve June industrial production and capacity utilization; not released by the research cutoff.
- July 22 and subsequent Wednesdays: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports.
- July 28-29: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, with a statement scheduled July 29.
- July 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA advance second-quarter GDP and June personal income and outlays.
- July 30-31: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting, with a statement and July outlook scheduled July 31; the BOJ calendar listed the release time as undecided.
- August 7 at 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July Employment Situation.
- August 11: EIA August Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- August 12 at 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July CPI.
- August 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July PPI.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-16-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts toward recent breadth, financials, healthcare, and defensive leadership rather than high-beta technology, which showed sharp negative 21-session active returns. All selected active holdings have base forecasts above the SPY base forecast and cluster exposure stays within the 50% cap outside SPY and cash.
Base case is that softer CPI/PPI and weakening payroll momentum support rotation into financials, equal-weight, healthcare, and defensive staples while mega-cap tech remains under pressure. Scheduled FOMC, GDP, employment, CPI, and PPI releases are the key one-month catalysts.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad US equities could continue higher if softer June CPI/PPI and upcoming FOMC communication support risk appetite without undermining growth.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY return was -0.13% over 5 sessions and -0.29% over 21 sessions.",
"SPY volatility_63s was 12.94% and max_drawdown_63s was -4.49%.",
"SPY was 0.91% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate the base case if SPY breaks below the recent 63-session drawdown area while macro releases worsen both growth and inflation expectations.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Soft payrolls, downward revisions, and still-elevated PCE inflation could pressure broad equities or keep policy uncertainty high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC statement, July 30 GDP and income/outlays, August 7 employment, August 12 CPI, and August 13 PPI."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continuation is supported by strong recent relative strength, a 52-week-high entry, and possible relief from softer CPI/PPI if rate expectations do not rise.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"KRE return_5s was 4.38% and active_return_21s was 8.80%.",
"KRE prior_105s_active_return was 0.58%, avoiding a purely extended long prior trend.",
"KRE distance_52w_high was 0.00%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 8.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Reject the case if the FOMC or incoming labor/inflation data pushes yields higher and KRE loses its 52-week-high breakout with renewed negative active return versus SPY.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Regional banks can reverse quickly if labor data imply credit stress, if yields rise, or if the recent breakout proves short-lived.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC statement, July 30 GDP and income/outlays, August 7 employment, and August 12 CPI before exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broad financials may continue to benefit from sector rotation, a 52-week-high entry, and moderate volatility compared with other cyclicals.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF return_5s was 2.18% and active_return_21s was 6.62%.",
"XLF distance_52w_high was 0.00%.",
"XLF volatility_63s was 13.04%, near SPY's 12.94%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate if financials fall back below recent highs and incoming data worsens the mix of growth, credit, and rate expectations relative to SPY.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "The signal could reverse if growth data weaken enough to raise credit concerns or if a hawkish rates repricing pressures financial conditions.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC statement plus July 30 GDP and August 7 employment data that can affect yield-curve and credit expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Healthcare's recent relative strength and low market beta can continue if investors rotate toward less economically sensitive sectors.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active_return_21s was 6.58%.",
"XLV beta_spy_252s was 0.328 and corr_spy_252s was 0.260.",
"XLV was 1.61% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate if XLV gives back its 21-session relative strength and moves materially farther from its 52-week high while SPY stabilizes.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A broad risk-on rebound led by high-beta growth could reduce demand for defensive healthcare exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP/income data and August labor and inflation releases may support defensive sector rotation if broad growth concerns persist."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Equal-weight can outperform if market breadth continues improving and leadership broadens away from mega-cap concentration.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP return_5s was 0.73% and active_return_21s was 1.70%.",
"RSP_minus_spy_5s was 0.86% and rsp_minus_spy_21s was 1.70%.",
"RSP distance_52w_high was 0.00% and volatility_63s was 10.88%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate if RSP relative performance versus SPY turns negative over the window or breadth weakens below the supplied positive-asset-share context.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "A rebound in the largest SPY constituents or renewed breadth deterioration would favor cap-weighted SPY over RSP.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, employment, CPI, and PPI releases before exit close can sustain breadth if inflation stays benign and rates do not rise sharply."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Staples can continue to attract defensive flows if soft labor data keep investors cautious while inflation data are not severe enough to force a rates shock.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLP return_5s was 3.14% and active_return_21s was 1.37%.",
"XLP corr_spy_252s was -0.055 and beta_spy_252s was -0.060.",
"June payrolls increased by 57,000 and April-May payrolls were revised down by 74,000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate if XLP loses recent relative strength and higher-beta cyclical sectors retake leadership after stronger growth data.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "The defensive bid could unwind if GDP and employment surprise strongly and cyclical or technology leadership resumes.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 employment and August 12 CPI can reinforce defensive flows if growth worries persist and inflation data do not pressure rates."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy equities could continue if oil's recent rebound persists and weekly EIA reports show tighter supply-demand conditions.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE return_5s was 4.01% and active_return_21s was 3.67%.",
"XLE prior_105s_active_return was 9.87%, but distance_52w_high was -8.20%.",
"EIA reported Brent averaged $85 in June, was below $70 on July 1, and projected a $70 fourth-quarter 2026 average."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate if oil prices retreat after EIA releases or XLE fails to sustain positive active return versus SPY.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The EIA price context and large distance from 52-week highs suggest risk that the recent move fades if crude stabilizes near lower forecast levels.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA Petroleum Status Reports and the August 11 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Short Treasury bills should provide stable positive carry with minimal duration risk if rates remain near current levels.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"BIL return_5s was 0.08% and active_return_21s was 0.60%.",
"BIL volatility_63s was 0.21% and max_drawdown_63s was -0.01%.",
"Three-month Treasury yield was 3.84% on July 16."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.15,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate only if front-end Treasury bill pricing becomes materially unstable or the cash-like carry assumption no longer holds over the scoring window.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Its low-risk carry is unlikely to beat SPY in a normal positive equity month and does not clear the active-holding hurdle versus the SPY base forecast.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC meeting may affect front-end rate expectations, though one-month price sensitivity is limited."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.75,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC or hotter July CPI/PPI lifts yields and reverses rate-sensitive financial and equal-weight leadership.",
"Stronger mega-cap technology rebound causes SPY to outperform the selected sector and equal-weight tilts.",
"Weak employment or GDP data raise credit-quality concerns for regional banks and broad financials.",
"Recent relative winners such as KRE, XLF, XLV, and XLP mean-revert before the August 14 exit close."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Reject the case if the FOMC or incoming labor/inflation data pushes yields higher and KRE loses its 52-week-high breakout with renewed negative active return versus SPY.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Regional banks have the strongest supplied one-month relative price signal among selected candidates, with positive short-term and 21-session active returns and a 52-week-high entry, while softer inflation could help rate-sensitive financial risk appetite.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC statement, July 30 GDP and income/outlays, August 7 employment, and August 12 CPI before exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate if financials fall back below recent highs and incoming data worsens the mix of growth, credit, and rate expectations relative to SPY.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Broad financials provide a lower-volatility way to express the same favorable financials signal, with 6.62% 21-session active return, positive 5-session return, and a 52-week-high entry.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC statement plus July 30 GDP and August 7 employment data that can affect yield-curve and credit expectations."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate if XLV gives back its 21-session relative strength and moves materially farther from its 52-week high while SPY stabilizes.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare has strong 21-session active return with relatively low market beta, offering a sector rotation exposure less dependent on high-beta technology continuation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP/income data and August labor and inflation releases may support defensive sector rotation if broad growth concerns persist."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate if RSP relative performance versus SPY turns negative over the window or breadth weakens below the supplied positive-asset-share context.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Equal-weight S&P 500 captures the supplied breadth improvement, with RSP outperforming SPY over both 5 and 21 sessions and trading at a 52-week high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, employment, CPI, and PPI releases before exit close can sustain breadth if inflation stays benign and rates do not rise sharply."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidate if XLP loses recent relative strength and higher-beta cyclical sectors retake leadership after stronger growth data.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Consumer staples add defensive equity exposure with positive recent relative performance and low correlation to SPY, useful if soft payrolls keep growth concerns in focus.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 employment and August 12 CPI can reinforce defensive flows if growth worries persist and inflation data do not pressure rates."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts toward recent breadth, financials, healthcare, and defensive leadership rather than high-beta technology, which showed sharp negative 21-session active returns. All selected active holdings have base forecasts above the SPY base forecast and cluster exposure stays within the 50% cap outside SPY and cash.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Base case is that softer CPI/PPI and weakening payroll momentum support rotation into financials, equal-weight, healthcare, and defensive staples while mega-cap tech remains under pressure. Scheduled FOMC, GDP, employment, CPI, and PPI releases are the key one-month catalysts.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-16-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12465,
"latency_seconds": 42.5,
"output_tokens": 3195,
"reasoning_tokens": 386,
"total_tokens": 15660
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio targets the observed rotation away from cap-weighted technology concentration toward value, financials, defensives, and rate-sensitive real estate. Four separate exposure clusters limit dependence on any single continuation signal.
Each selected holding has a base forecast above SPY and has recent relative strength supported by a plausible macro catalyst within the scoring window. The principal bet is that broader market leadership persists through the FOMC and major inflation and employment releases.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Near-record index levels and resilient retail sales could support modest gains if disinflation offsets slower employment.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned -0.29% over 21 sessions and was 0.91% below its 52-week high.",
"Equal-weight SPY outperformed SPY by 1.70 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"Only 42.03% of tracked assets had positive 21-session returns."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sustained improvement in market breadth with SPY regaining positive 21-session momentum would invalidate the subdued forecast.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak breadth, slowing payrolls, and continued rotation away from the largest index constituents could produce underperformance or a drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, July 30 GDP and PCE, August 7 employment, and August 12 CPI are the principal scheduled market catalysts."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Established relative strength, value leadership, and softer monthly inflation could extend the rotation if rates stabilize.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWN outperformed SPY by 3.45 percentage points over 21 sessions and by 4.88 points over the prior 105 sessions.",
"IWN gained 2.13% over five sessions and was at its 52-week high.",
"Its 63-session volatility was 15.64%, below broad small caps' 18.56%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 8.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -6.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWN falls below SPY on a 21-session basis or the scheduled labor and inflation releases materially increase growth or rate concerns.",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls and expensive financing could disproportionately hurt smaller domestic companies, while the new high raises mean-reversion risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, July 30 GDP and PCE, August 7 employment, and August 12 CPI could reduce rate pressure on smaller companies."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive curve slope, a breakout high, and strong relative momentum support another month of leadership if economic activity remains positive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF outperformed SPY by 6.62 percentage points over 21 sessions and gained 2.18% over five sessions.",
"XLF was at its 52-week high with 13.04% 63-session volatility.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.57%, above the 4.16% two-year yield."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF loses its 52-week-high breakout and its 21-session active return turns negative, or incoming data signal sharply deteriorating credit conditions.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "The 21-session surge could mean-revert, while weak employment or worsening credit expectations could outweigh curve support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC and the July 30 GDP and PCE releases could clarify the rate path and economic resilience."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Slower employment and softer core CPI could sustain demand for defensive, essential-consumption exposure, though prior 105-session active return was negative.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLP gained 3.14% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 1.37 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"June payroll growth was only 57,000 and prior months were revised down by 74,000.",
"June core CPI was unchanged for the month."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLP underperforms SPY over the subsequent 21 sessions while retail and consumption data show accelerating discretionary demand.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "The five-session gain could reverse if growth expectations improve and investors rotate back toward cyclical or growth sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 personal income and outlays, August 7 employment, and August 12 CPI could reinforce demand for defensive earnings exposure."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Consistent relative strength and softer monthly inflation could support rate-sensitive real estate if long yields stabilize or decline.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLRE outperformed SPY by 2.22 percentage points over 21 sessions and by 1.56 points over the prior 105 sessions.",
"XLRE gained 2.78% over five sessions and was at its 52-week high.",
"June core CPI was unchanged, but the 10-year Treasury yield remained elevated at 4.57%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above 4.57% and XLRE loses its recent breakout with negative active performance.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Elevated real yields and a new 52-week high create valuation and breakout-failure risk if inflation data reaccelerate.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC and August 12 CPI release could lower expected rates or real yields before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak labor data and flat monthly core CPI could trigger a duration rebound around the FOMC or subsequent inflation releases.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT declined 1.11 percentage points relative to SPY over 21 sessions and was 5.54% below its 52-week high.",
"June core CPI was unchanged and payroll growth slowed to 57,000.",
"The 30-year nominal yield was 5.09% and its real yield was 2.91%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "The 30-year Treasury yield moves decisively above 5.09% or inflation releases remain inconsistent with disinflation.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Hot PCE inflation, elevated Fed inflation projections, and high real yields could extend the established duration downtrend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, July 30 PCE, August 7 employment, and August 12 CPI could move long-term rate expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Established prior-window strength and renewed near-term oil momentum could continue if weekly supply data tighten.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE gained 4.01% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 3.67 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"XLE was still 8.20% below its 52-week high with 24.85% volatility.",
"Brent was below $70 on July 1, and EIA projected a $70 fourth-quarter average."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -9,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude momentum fades following EIA reports and XLE's 21-session active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The oil-price surge may reverse toward the EIA forecast path, and XLE's high volatility and substantial drawdown increase downside risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA petroleum reports and the August 11 Short-Term Energy Outlook could alter supply and price expectations."
}
],
"confidence": 0.59,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.68,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A renewed mega-cap technology rally reverses the recent market-breadth rotation and lifts SPY relative to the selected holdings.",
"Weak payroll growth develops into a sharper slowdown, hurting small-value companies, financial credit quality, and real estate fundamentals.",
"Hot PCE, CPI, or PPI data push Treasury yields higher and pressure real estate and smaller companies.",
"Recent financials and defensive-sector gains prove crowded and mean-revert before the exit close."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "IWN falls below SPY on a 21-session basis or the scheduled labor and inflation releases materially increase growth or rate concerns.",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Persistent benchmark-relative strength and a new 52-week high support continued rotation toward smaller value stocks, while the allocation remains below the cluster cap.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC, July 30 GDP and PCE, August 7 employment, and August 12 CPI could reduce rate pressure on smaller companies."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF loses its 52-week-high breakout and its 21-session active return turns negative, or incoming data signal sharply deteriorating credit conditions.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative performance, moderate volatility, and a positively sloped two-to-ten-year Treasury curve favor financials over concentrated large-cap growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC and the July 30 GDP and PCE releases could clarify the rate path and economic resilience."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "XLP underperforms SPY over the subsequent 21 sessions while retail and consumption data show accelerating discretionary demand.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Defensive demand exposure may benefit from weak payroll growth and softer CPI, although the short continuation history limits conviction.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 personal income and outlays, August 7 employment, and August 12 CPI could reinforce demand for defensive earnings exposure."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above 4.57% and XLRE loses its recent breakout with negative active performance.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Positive recent and prior benchmark-relative performance, limited drawdown, and softer CPI provide a supported rate-sensitive continuation case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC and August 12 CPI release could lower expected rates or real yields before the exit close."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.13,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets the observed rotation away from cap-weighted technology concentration toward value, financials, defensives, and rate-sensitive real estate. Four separate exposure clusters limit dependence on any single continuation signal.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Each selected holding has a base forecast above SPY and has recent relative strength supported by a plausible macro catalyst within the scoring window. The principal bet is that broader market leadership persists through the FOMC and major inflation and employment releases.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-16-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12467,
"latency_seconds": 60.04700000002049,
"output_tokens": 4088,
"reasoning_tokens": 1767,
"total_tokens": 16555
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Four holdings with base forecasts exceeding SPY selected from distinct clusters; 30-25-25-20 allocation respects 50% cluster cap.
Energy, staples, regional banks, and healthcare show stronger recent performance and macro support than broad equity benchmark over the one-month window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Stable Fed funds range supports equity multiples",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"June nonfarm payrolls +57k with downward revisions",
"CPI -0.4% monthly"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment above 4.5%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further payroll weakness triggers risk-off",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July statement"
},
{
"continuation_case": "EIA reports confirm supply tightness",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE 4.01% 5-day return",
"Brent averaged $85 in June"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil price reversal below $70 sustained",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand weakness in China GDP data",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum reports"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows amid soft growth data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLP 3.14% 5-day return",
"Retail sales +0.2% monthly"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI above 3.8% year-over-year",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "CPI reacceleration",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yield curve stability persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"KRE 4.38% 5-day return",
"Treasury 2-year yield 4.16%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rise above 4.5%",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Credit quality deterioration post-employment report",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive sector rotation continues",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV 6.58% 21-day active return",
"PCE prices +0.4% monthly"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "PCE core above 3.7%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "PCE core inflation spike",
"time_window_catalyst": "July PPI release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate environment supportive for banks",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLF 2.18% 5-day return",
"Average hourly earnings +0.3%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yield curve flattening below 50bp",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Regional bank stress widens",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July statement"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity demand holds with China growth",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"PDBC 3.29% 5-day return",
"China H1 GDP +4.7% YoY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "China industrial production below 4%",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Global growth slowdown visible in GDP print",
"time_window_catalyst": "BEA Q2 GDP advance"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.25,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC policy surprise on July 29",
"July employment report volatility on August 7",
"Oil price reversal from EIA data"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil price reversal below $70 sustained through exit date",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Recent 4.01% 5-day return and Brent price context support outperformance versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly petroleum reports and August Short-Term Energy Outlook"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.9,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI reacceleration above 3.8% year-over-year",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "3.14% recent 5-day return and defensive characteristics amid soft payroll data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and employment releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rise above 4.5%",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "4.38% recent 5-day return and yield-curve stability from Treasury data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July statement and July employment report"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "PCE core inflation exceeding 3.7%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "6.58% 21-day active return and PCE price stability in briefing.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July PPI and second-quarter GDP release"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.05,
"portfolio_rationale": "Four holdings with base forecasts exceeding SPY selected from distinct clusters; 30-25-25-20 allocation respects 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy, staples, regional banks, and healthcare show stronger recent performance and macro support than broad equity benchmark over the one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-16-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12703,
"latency_seconds": 21.281999999890104,
"output_tokens": 1582,
"reasoning_tokens": 999,
"total_tokens": 15284
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Allocates equally across equal-weight US equities, large value, financials, healthcare and energy to exploit recent relative strength and soft macro data favoring rotation and defensives over the concentrated S&P 500 over the one-month window.
Soft inflation, weak payrolls and relative performance data support higher base-case returns for value, financials, equal-weight, healthcare and energy versus SPY.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Modest growth and cooling inflation allow equities to grind higher with Fed on hold",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000 with April and May revised down by 74,000 combined",
"June CPI decreased 0.4% monthly and core was unchanged",
"spy_return_21s of -0.29% and distance_52w_high -0.91%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rises sharply or core inflation reaccelerates in July CPI",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Data surprises to the downside trigger recession fears or upside inflation forces hawkish pivot",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting July 28-29 and BEA advance Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Equal-weight continues to outperform as market breadth improves and mega-cap concentration eases",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_return_21s 1.42% and rsp_minus_spy_21s 1.70%",
"rsp_return_5s 0.73% vs spy -0.13%",
"distance_52w_high 0.00%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Equal-weight underperforms market-cap SPY by over 2% or tech leadership returns",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Large-cap growth and tech rebound sharply on positive catalysts",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement and subsequent sector performance into August CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value factor and large-value stocks extend relative strength in a soft-landing or lower-growth regime",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWD return_5s 1.25% and active_return_21s 2.62%",
"distance_52w_high 0.00%",
"prior_105s_active_return 3.76%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Large value lags SPY significantly or growth factor surges",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on growth rally or higher rates pressure value cyclicals",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report August 7 and FOMC"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Financials maintain momentum from recent outperformance and stable-to-steeper yield curve support",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF return_5s 2.18% and active_return_21s 6.62%",
"distance_52w_high 0.00%",
"Treasury 10-year yield at 4.57%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials sector drawdown exceeds 5% or yield curve flattens sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weakening credit conditions or deposit outflows from soft economy reverse gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and BLS employment August 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Healthcare defensive characteristics support outperformance amid macro uncertainty",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active_return_21s 6.58%",
"max_drawdown_63s -4.01%",
"June CPI decreased 0.4% and nonfarm payrolls soft"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare relative performance turns negative versus SPY by large amount",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Broad risk-on move or adverse policy/regulatory news for sector",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 GDP July 30 and July CPI August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy equities hold gains if oil stabilizes near forecast and companies maintain capital discipline",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE return_5s 4.01% and active_return_21s 3.67%",
"Brent crude below $70 on July 1 after $85 June average",
"EIA July forecast projects $70 Q4 average"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude oil declines below $60 or large unexpected inventory builds",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil prices fall further on demand concerns or supply increase, pressuring sector",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports and August Short-Term Energy Outlook August 11"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Staples continue as defensive play with cautious consumer spending",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLP return_5s 3.14% and active_return_21s 1.37%",
"June retail sales up only 0.2%",
"soft labor market data with payrolls +57k"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Staples underperform as market risk appetite increases markedly",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Improving growth data shifts preference to discretionary and cyclicals",
"time_window_catalyst": "Personal income and outlays with GDP July 30"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.24,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sudden reversal of the value and financials rotation if mega-cap tech rebounds",
"Further decline in oil prices below EIA projections weighing on energy",
"Hawkish surprise at FOMC or hotter July CPI data",
"Broader equity market correction from weaker-than-expected GDP or jobs data"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Equal-weight underperforms market-cap SPY by over 2% or tech leadership returns",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Captures broader market participation and recent equal-weight outperformance versus concentrated SPY amid rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement and subsequent sector performance into August CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Large value lags SPY significantly or growth factor surges",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Benefits from ongoing value rotation supported by soft growth data and relative strength at 52-week highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report August 7 and FOMC"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials sector drawdown exceeds 5% or yield curve flattens sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strongest recent active returns among major sectors with support from current yield levels and momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and BLS employment August 7"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare relative performance turns negative versus SPY by large amount",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with solid 21-session active outperformance suitable for uncertain macro backdrop.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 GDP July 30 and July CPI August 12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude oil declines below $60 or large unexpected inventory builds",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Recent price strength and potential stabilization of oil near EIA forecasts support continued relative gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Reports and August Short-Term Energy Outlook August 11"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.74,
"portfolio_rationale": "Allocates equally across equal-weight US equities, large value, financials, healthcare and energy to exploit recent relative strength and soft macro data favoring rotation and defensives over the concentrated S&P 500 over the one-month window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Soft inflation, weak payrolls and relative performance data support higher base-case returns for value, financials, equal-weight, healthcare and energy versus SPY.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-16-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 13476,
"latency_seconds": 115.93699999991804,
"output_tokens": 2417,
"reasoning_tokens": 7528,
"total_tokens": 23421
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Regional Banks (KRE)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)20%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)10% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30%Financials Sector (XLF)30%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)20%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)20% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)25%Regional Banks (KRE)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Energy Sector (XLE)20% | 0.60 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-16 | 230.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-16 | 93.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-16 | 27.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-16 | 28.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-16 | 118.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-16 | 152.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-16 | 36.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-16 | 35.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-16 | 59.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-16 | 16.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-16 | 59.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-16 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-16 | 54.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-16 | 112.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-16 | 117.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-16 | 85.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-16 | 38.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-16 | 119.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-16 | 91.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-16 | 70.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-16 | 95.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-16 | 58.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-16 | 57.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-16 | 215.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-16 | 14.13 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-16 | 105.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-16 | 88.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-16 | 56.75 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-16 | 74.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-16 | 161.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-16 | 79.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-16 | 48.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-16 | 180.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-16 | 93.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-16 | 47.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-16 | 107.50 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-16 | 91.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-16 | 56.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-16 | 84.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-16 | 50.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-16 | 98.99 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-16 | 75.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-16 | 106.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-16 | 705.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-16 | 45.46 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-16 | 77.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-16 | 750.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-16 | 568.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-16 | 91.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-16 | 50.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-16 | 93.70 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-16 | 54.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-16 | 62.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-16 | 163.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-16 | 100.16 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-16 | 177.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-16 | 370.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-16 | 107.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-16 | 46.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-16 | 98.13 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-16 | 33.04 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-16 | 28.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-16 | 121.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-16 | 249.46 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-16 | 76.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-16 | 75.99 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-16 | 303.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-16 | 295.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-16 | 224.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-16 | 45.47 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 31c44a54dcf0...f02d95e3 |
| manifest.yaml | 12af21e1a9cc...af03fb6f |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 2ecc7fd39c44...e4d38581 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 512a04510f25...2b0f711a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 7d8b168cae3b...e5ab0128 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | f5ffa354dd72...ed943a50 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 10a5f0e81e2d...e1bce58e |
| submission_schema.json | f74e11a346ed...4031ce88 |